Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

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dcop
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Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by dcop »

Curious about what others are using for a safe MAGI estimate for 2023 income for 2025 Standard Level IRMAA. I'm leaning towards 103K.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by jebmke »

I don't have controllable income so I don't worry about it.
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Artsdoctor
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Artsdoctor »

Try this. Harry Sit is excellent and you won't get any better estimates:

https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irm ... ckets.html
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

This is my first Medicare year, started when I retired half way through the year. I filed my appeal as I'm 2 clicks into IRMAA with income 2 years ago. I guess I'll have to appeal again next year. This year's income for me, MFJ is $194k. I'm leaving some padding below that. Maybe $20k. I've done my Roth conversions and some sale of dividend producing ETFs in taxable along with documenting interest, W2 income, ESPP gains and RSUs. Next year, it'll be simpler where there won't be anything based on work. I'll do more removal of dividend producing ETFs and interest bearing accounts.
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dcop
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by dcop »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:39 pm This year's income for me, MFJ is $194k. I'm leaving some padding below that. Maybe $20k.
Sounds good, you'll be well under for 2023 income.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Boglegrappler »

You can get an idea of what might lie ahead from the Trustees report for 2023. See page 211 for the projections out to 2032.

https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2023
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dcop
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by dcop »

Boglegrappler wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 4:55 pm You can get an idea of what might lie ahead from the Trustees report for 2023. See page 211 for the projections out to 2032.

https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2023
From what I can tell those aren't MAGI limits but I'm not sure I'm interpreting them correctly.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by retiredjg »

dcop wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:06 pm Curious about what others are using for a safe MAGI estimate for 2023 income for 2025 Standard Level IRMAA. I'm leaning towards 103K.
$103k is almost certainly going to be the actual number for 2024 (based on 2022 income) for a single.

Ordinarily, the following year is expected to be a little higher, but if you are wanting something sort of rock solid safe, I think $103k is a good limit for 2023 income (for use in avoiding IRMAA in 2025).

That's more or less how I do it. Sometimes I go a little over. I'd rather be a couple of thousand under than $1 dollar over.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Artsdoctor »

^ I'm using $105,000 for 0% inflation and $106,000 (for single) for 3% inflation based on Harry's calculations. MFJ numbers are doubled. You won't go wrong using $103,000 and I agree that that $1 over is ridiculous.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by stevethefundguy »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:39 pm This is my first Medicare year, started when I retired half way through the year. I filed my appeal as I'm 2 clicks into IRMAA with income 2 years ago. I guess I'll have to appeal again next year.
Similarly, I retired at the end of 2022 and requested/received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for 2023. Does that mean I have to reapply for a reduction for 2024, as otherwise SSA would look at my 2022 employment earnings, which would place me above the IRMAA threshold? That seems odd, as they know I retired.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Eagle33 »

stevethefundguy wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:09 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:39 pm This is my first Medicare year, started when I retired half way through the year. I filed my appeal as I'm 2 clicks into IRMAA with income 2 years ago. I guess I'll have to appeal again next year.
Similarly, I retired at the end of 2022 and requested/received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for 2023. Does that mean I have to reapply for a reduction for 2024, as otherwise SSA would look at my 2022 employment earnings, which would place me above the IRMAA threshold? That seems odd, as they know I retired.
You will need to do it again for 2024. People unretire, win the lottery, etc.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by stevethefundguy »

Eagle33 wrote: Fri Sep 29, 2023 4:54 pm You will need to do it again for 2024. People unretire, win the lottery, etc.
Thanks, good to know!
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by N.Y.Cab »

Looks like we are going to exceed the target for first tier IRMAA this year. Will do another Roth conversion in December to get near the NIIT threshold instead.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by stevethefundguy »

Curious about what if you received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for this year, but end up with income over the IRMAA threshold? Are you charged retroactively for the higher IRMAA premium?
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Artsdoctor »

stevethefundguy wrote: Sun Oct 01, 2023 8:00 am Curious about what if you received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for this year, but end up with income over the IRMAA threshold? Are you charged retroactively for the higher IRMAA premium?
Wouldn't you always be applying for reconsideration of premium long after the tax year has ended? Let's say you asked for a reconsideration of Medicare premiums this year (2023) because you had a significant life status change in 2021, the year that was used to determine 2023's premium. That year's a closed book. Whatever happens this year (interest, dividends, Roth conversions, etc.) will influence your premiums in 2025.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by stevethefundguy »

Artsdoctor wrote: Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:45 pm Wouldn't you always be applying for reconsideration of premium long after the tax year has ended? Let's say you asked for a reconsideration of Medicare premiums this year (2023) because you had a significant life status change in 2021, the year that was used to determine 2023's premium. That year's a closed book. Whatever happens this year (interest, dividends, Roth conversions, etc.) will influence your premiums in 2025.
I applied for an IRMAA reduction for this year (2023) because in 2023 my income this year would be below the threshold, and they granted it, although my income in 2021 was clearly above the threshold.

As Harry Sit writes: "If your income two years ago was higher because you were working at that time and now your income is significantly lower because you retired (“work reduction” or “work stoppage”), you can appeal the IRMAA initial determination."

So, my question was what if, having received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for 2023 premiums, I were to end actually up with income over the IRMAA threshold for 2023 premiums?
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by lstone19 »

Artsdoctor wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:28 pm Try this. Harry Sit is excellent and you won't get any better estimates:

https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irm ... ckets.html
I agree and I previously used the information there to build my own spreadsheet which I update when the numbers come out each month.

My approach is to lag a year. As of now, I'll use $206K (joint) - the number we now know will be the 2022 number (even though it's yet to be officially announced, we have the same data the government will use) for managing year-end Roth conversions. But by the time we get there, we'll have three more months of data so could revise it then. And at least for this year, since my wife is still working, I am eligible to make a tIRA contribution so come April (at which point we'll have six, maybe even seven, of the CPI-U numbers needed for determining the 2023 IRMAA brackets) I could make such a contribution if there's reason to think due to deflation that the 2023 IRMAA brackets will be less than the 2022 brackets.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by retiredjg »

lstone19 wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:09 am ....if there's reason to think due to deflation that the 2023 IRMAA brackets will be less than the 2022 brackets.
Awhile back (few years) a discussion came up about deflation and whether the numbers would freeze in place or actually go down. I don't recall that was ever determined with any certainty.

Do you know for sure that deflation could bring the numbers down?
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dcop
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by dcop »

retiredjg wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:20 am Awhile back (few years) a discussion came up about deflation and whether the numbers would freeze in place or actually go down. I don't recall that was ever determined with any certainty.

Do you know for sure that deflation could bring the numbers down?
That's the concern of cutting it close. According to my Financial Adviser Mr. Google, we've only had annual deflation 2 times, in 2009 and 2015. And it was pretty insignificant which is the reason I feel 103K should be pretty safe.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by retiredjg »

dcop wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:34 am
retiredjg wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:20 am Awhile back (few years) a discussion came up about deflation and whether the numbers would freeze in place or actually go down. I don't recall that was ever determined with any certainty.

Do you know for sure that deflation could bring the numbers down?
That's the concern of cutting it close. According to my Financial Adviser Mr. Google, we've only had annual deflation 2 times, in 2009 and 2015. And it was pretty insignificant which is the reason I feel 103K should be pretty safe.
I agree that could be a concern of cutting it close. And that's why I use something close to the previous year's number myself.

But I'm not sure it has actually been shown/determined that IRMAA tiers can go down. It might just being something that people "know"...which may not be correct. Who says the IRMAA numbers don't just stay where they are?
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by HeelaMonster »

Our scenario relates to 2023 IRMAA levels, as discussed in this thread, so will place this question here.

Our 2022 income was unusually high, due to onetime sale of rental property. Last Nov, when we were presented with 2024 premiums based on that 2022 income tax return, it included a large IRMAA surcharge. Because one of us (DW) retired in 2022, we were able to appeal this decision, citing retirement as Life Changing Event and requesting that they instead use 2023 income... which we estimated to be $200,000. This appeal (request) was immediately accepted for both of us, in Dec 2023.

Now that we have all final info for taxes, our income (MAGI, MFJ) for 2023 is coming in at $204,000. Just slightly over the estimate we provided to SSA office, but still under the actual threshold for IRMAA of $206,000 for 2024 coverage (based on 2022 income) or $210,000 for 2025 coverage (based on 2023 income, using Harry Sit's estimates linked above).

On that background, here is the question:

Given that we appear to be over the estimate we provided, but safely under the ACTUAL thresholds... are we likely to remain out of IRMAA territory in the eyes of SSA? At this point, the only thing we might be able to do is make a deductible IRA contribution to lower income (we have a small amount of earned income from consulting during retirement, no employer plans). But would rather not mess with that, if we are going to be safely under the IRMAA limits and SSA doesn't hold our feet to the flame with that estimate.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Eagle33 »

HeelaMonster wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 2:54 pm
Since your actual alternate year (2003) income of $204,000 is under the actual threshold for IRMAA of $206,000 for 2024 coverage you will not be subject to an IRMAA surcharge for 2024 Medicare.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by tibbitts »

HeelaMonster wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 2:54 pm Our scenario relates to 2023 IRMAA levels, as discussed in this thread, so will place this question here.

Our 2022 income was unusually high, due to onetime sale of rental property. Last Nov, when we were presented with 2024 premiums based on that 2022 income tax return, it included a large IRMAA surcharge. Because one of us (DW) retired in 2022, we were able to appeal this decision, citing retirement as Life Changing Event and requesting that they instead use 2023 income... which we estimated to be $200,000. This appeal (request) was immediately accepted for both of us, in Dec 2023.

Now that we have all final info for taxes, our income (MAGI, MFJ) for 2023 is coming in at $204,000. Just slightly over the estimate we provided to SSA office, but still under the actual threshold for IRMAA of $206,000 for 2024 coverage (based on 2022 income) or $210,000 for 2025 coverage (based on 2023 income, using Harry Sit's estimates linked above).

On that background, here is the question:

Given that we appear to be over the estimate we provided, but safely under the ACTUAL thresholds... are we likely to remain out of IRMAA territory in the eyes of SSA? At this point, the only thing we might be able to do is make a deductible IRA contribution to lower income (we have a small amount of earned income from consulting during retirement, no employer plans). But would rather not mess with that, if we are going to be safely under the IRMAA limits and SSA doesn't hold our feet to the flame with that estimate.
No matter how many times you ask the question, I'm sticking with the answer that your IRMAA will be based on your actual income - which in this case is the same tier as the estimate you provided. You either reach an IRMAA tier with actual income, or not. It would be surprising to me if anyone would believe that an estimate that was within the same IRMAA tier as your actual income would somehow result in you being charged IRMAA at a higher tier level.

Having said that, it's obvious that you're very concerned about this very small amount (that your estimate was under the actual income), so why not take less than the amount of time it's taken you to post about this to make a deductible IRA contribution for $500 or whatever the amount is, which you say you're qualified for?
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by lstone19 »

tibbitts wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:27 pm No matter how many times you ask the question, I'm sticking with the answer that your IRMAA will be based on your actual income - which in this case is the same tier as the estimate you provided. You either reach an IRMAA tier with actual income, or not. It would be surprising to me if anyone would believe that an estimate that was within the same IRMAA tier as your actual income would somehow result in you being charged IRMAA at a higher tier level.

Having said that, it's obvious that you're very concerned about this very small amount (that your estimate was under the actual income), so why not take less than the amount of time it's taken you to post about this to make a deductible IRA contribution for $500 or whatever the amount is, which you say you're qualified for?
My assumption once an appeal is processed, unless you go over the base IRMAA amount, it's never looked at again.

When my wife retired in 2021, we filed an IRMAA appeal and said 2021 income would be just below $150K. That was accepted. She then resumed part-time in 2022 but we kept the 2022 AGI below the IRMAA base. The appeal acceptance letter said "You estimated your MAGI for 2022. You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year. It is important that you let us know if the information you gave us about your income changes." Well, actually we said nothing about 2022 other than marking No for the question on the SSA-44 asking "Will your modified adjusted gross income be lower next year than the year in Step 2?" And despite saying "You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year," they don't say how to do that (plus they put it under "If the information you gave us changes." It didn't change (at least as far as being subject to IRMAA), we didn't send them our tax return, we were below the IRMAA base, and have heard nothing which is what I expected since 2022 was below the IRMAA limit).

I suppose if they ever asked why we didn't send them a copy of the tax return, I'd just say the SSA-44 information didn't change so I never read that paragraph. :happy
Last edited by lstone19 on Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by HeelaMonster »

tibbitts wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:27 pm
No matter how many times you ask the question, I'm sticking with the answer that your IRMAA will be based on your actual income - which in this case is the same tier as the estimate you provided. You either reach an IRMAA tier with actual income, or not. It would be surprising to me if anyone would believe that an estimate that was within the same IRMAA tier as your actual income would somehow result in you being charged IRMAA at a higher tier level.

Having said that, it's obvious that you're very concerned about this very small amount (that your estimate was under the actual income), so why not take less than the amount of time it's taken you to post about this to make a deductible IRA contribution for $500 or whatever the amount is, which you say you're qualified for?
Thanks for the feedback, and sorry for the annoyance (FWIW, I only repeated the question under separate thread when it looked like I chose poorly in resurrecting this one from last October. My bad.).

As for what appears to be undue concern.... like you, I would think (or at least hope) that a preliminary estimate would not be binding or problematic, in the face of actual income that is clearly under the actual threshold. However, we have spent the past two years dealing with our local SSA office, attempting to get what appears to be an erroneous entry by SSA staff corrected. As near as we can tell, this resulted from their misclassification of actual income as an "estimate," and subsequently deciding that the non-estimate was violated. This has required multiple trips, hours-long waits, repeat submissions... all while we're getting billed several $1000 extra in premium surcharges that may or may not ever be reconciled. This experience has admittedly made us cautious in dealing with IRMAA, in particular anything that involves "estimates." Thus the question.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by tibbitts »

HeelaMonster wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:21 pm
tibbitts wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:27 pm
No matter how many times you ask the question, I'm sticking with the answer that your IRMAA will be based on your actual income - which in this case is the same tier as the estimate you provided. You either reach an IRMAA tier with actual income, or not. It would be surprising to me if anyone would believe that an estimate that was within the same IRMAA tier as your actual income would somehow result in you being charged IRMAA at a higher tier level.

Having said that, it's obvious that you're very concerned about this very small amount (that your estimate was under the actual income), so why not take less than the amount of time it's taken you to post about this to make a deductible IRA contribution for $500 or whatever the amount is, which you say you're qualified for?
Thanks for the feedback, and sorry for the annoyance (FWIW, I only repeated the question under separate thread when it looked like I chose poorly in resurrecting this one from last October. My bad.).

As for what appears to be undue concern.... like you, I would think (or at least hope) that a preliminary estimate would not be binding or problematic, in the face of actual income that is clearly under the actual threshold. However, we have spent the past two years dealing with our local SSA office, attempting to get what appears to be an erroneous entry by SSA staff corrected. As near as we can tell, this resulted from their misclassification of actual income as an "estimate," and subsequently deciding that the non-estimate was violated. This has required multiple trips, hours-long waits, repeat submissions... all while we're getting billed several $1000 extra in premium surcharges that may or may not ever be reconciled. This experience has admittedly made us cautious in dealing with IRMAA, in particular anything that involves "estimates." Thus the question.
What I'm saying is that just so you don't have to think about this ever again - and I fully understand that sometimes you can have something like this unresolved for years - why not stick a few hundred dollars in an IRA and never think about it again? Put the exact amount in to match your income estimate. I worry about some things that others might think of as "undue" too but they aren't "undue" to me, so if I have an opportunity to eliminate one of them with virtually no effort, it seems like that would be a win with no downside.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by HeelaMonster »

lstone19 wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:56 pm My assumption once an appeal is processed, unless you go over the base IRMAA amount, it's never looked at again.

When my wife retired in 2021, we filed an IRMAA appeal and said 2021 income would be just below $150K. That was accepted. She then resumed part-time in 2022 but we kept the 2022 AGI below the IRMAA base. The appeal acceptance letter said "You estimated your MAGI for 2022. You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year. It is important that you let us know if the information you gave us about your income changes." Well, actually we said nothing about 2022 other than marking No for the question on the SSA-44 asking "Will
your modified adjusted gross income be lower next year than the year in Step 2?" And despite saying "You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year," they don't say how to do that (plus they put it under "If the information you gave us changes." It didn't change (at least as far as being subject to IRMAA), we didn't send them our tax return, we were below the IRMAA base, and have heard nothing which is what I expected since 2022 was below the IRMAA limit.

I suppose if they ever asked why we didn't send them a copy of the tax return, I'd just say the SSA-44 information didn't change so I never read that paragraph. :happy
I really didn't enter this thread to go off on this tangent, but your description is so eerily familiar that I might as well continue the story! :wink: For background, see the mini-rant I just offered in response to tibbitts, immediately above.

The initial approval of appeal contained exactly the same stuff as your letter. Namely, (a) reference to a year OTHER than the one cited in SSA-44, (b) erroneous statement that we had provided estimate for that later year, and (c) reminder to provide tax return for that later year. Nevertheless, they removed IRMAA for the year in question and all was good. Until they came back around over one year later, pointed to the "estimate" we didn't provide for the year we didn't actually cite as alternative, said they had new info from IRS (that was same info they had all along)... and said they were going to bill us in arrears for the IRMAA that never should have been removed. That follow up action is now under reconsideration, but I have little confidence this will ever be resolved.

With luck, they won't do the same to you. But given the identical nature of scenario and wording, I'd sleep with one eye open. :annoyed
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by lstone19 »

HeelaMonster wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:44 pm
lstone19 wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:56 pm My assumption once an appeal is processed, unless you go over the base IRMAA amount, it's never looked at again.

When my wife retired in 2021, we filed an IRMAA appeal and said 2021 income would be just below $150K. That was accepted. She then resumed part-time in 2022 but we kept the 2022 AGI below the IRMAA base. The appeal acceptance letter said "You estimated your MAGI for 2022. You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year. It is important that you let us know if the information you gave us about your income changes." Well, actually we said nothing about 2022 other than marking No for the question on the SSA-44 asking "Will
your modified adjusted gross income be lower next year than the year in Step 2?" And despite saying "You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year," they don't say how to do that (plus they put it under "If the information you gave us changes." It didn't change (at least as far as being subject to IRMAA), we didn't send them our tax return, we were below the IRMAA base, and have heard nothing which is what I expected since 2022 was below the IRMAA limit.

I suppose if they ever asked why we didn't send them a copy of the tax return, I'd just say the SSA-44 information didn't change so I never read that paragraph. :happy
I really didn't enter this thread to go off on this tangent, but your description is so eerily familiar that I might as well continue the story! :wink: For background, see the mini-rant I just offered in response to tibbitts, immediately above.

The initial approval of appeal contained exactly the same stuff as your letter. Namely, (a) reference to a year OTHER than the one cited in SSA-44, (b) erroneous statement that we had provided estimate for that later year, and (c) reminder to provide tax return for that later year. Nevertheless, they removed IRMAA for the year in question and all was good. Until they came back around over one year later, pointed to the "estimate" we didn't provide for the year we didn't actually cite as alternative, said they had new info from IRS (that was same info they had all along)... and said they were going to bill us in arrears for the IRMAA that never should have been removed. That follow up action is now under reconsideration, but I have little confidence this will ever be resolved.

With luck, they won't do the same to you. But given the identical nature of scenario and wording, I'd sleep with one eye open. :annoyed
Thanks for that additional information. And when I looked at the appeal determination letter again, I see it says we estimated our 2022 income at $x when that actually was out 2021 estimate. I also see the letter lists as the SS address the office nearest where we lived then. We’ve since moved. It’s not clear to me how much of the processing is done in local offices and if they just put the local office address there even though it’s not in a national processing center. Anyway, the only year they could come back to us for is 2022. 2021 for 2023 and 2022 for 2024 were both below the IRMAA base.
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by lstone19 »

lstone19 wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:22 pm
HeelaMonster wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:44 pm
lstone19 wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:56 pm My assumption once an appeal is processed, unless you go over the base IRMAA amount, it's never looked at again.

When my wife retired in 2021, we filed an IRMAA appeal and said 2021 income would be just below $150K. That was accepted. She then resumed part-time in 2022 but we kept the 2022 AGI below the IRMAA base. The appeal acceptance letter said "You estimated your MAGI for 2022. You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year. It is important that you let us know if the information you gave us about your income changes." Well, actually we said nothing about 2022 other than marking No for the question on the SSA-44 asking "Will
your modified adjusted gross income be lower next year than the year in Step 2?" And despite saying "You should give us a copy of your Federal income tax return after you file your income tax return for that year," they don't say how to do that (plus they put it under "If the information you gave us changes." It didn't change (at least as far as being subject to IRMAA), we didn't send them our tax return, we were below the IRMAA base, and have heard nothing which is what I expected since 2022 was below the IRMAA limit).

I suppose if they ever asked why we didn't send them a copy of the tax return, I'd just say the SSA-44 information didn't change so I never read that paragraph. :happy
I really didn't enter this thread to go off on this tangent, but your description is so eerily familiar that I might as well continue the story! :wink: For background, see the mini-rant I just offered in response to tibbitts, immediately above.

The initial approval of appeal contained exactly the same stuff as your letter. Namely, (a) reference to a year OTHER than the one cited in SSA-44, (b) erroneous statement that we had provided estimate for that later year, and (c) reminder to provide tax return for that later year. Nevertheless, they removed IRMAA for the year in question and all was good. Until they came back around over one year later, pointed to the "estimate" we didn't provide for the year we didn't actually cite as alternative, said they had new info from IRS (that was same info they had all along)... and said they were going to bill us in arrears for the IRMAA that never should have been removed. That follow up action is now under reconsideration, but I have little confidence this will ever be resolved.

With luck, they won't do the same to you. But given the identical nature of scenario and wording, I'd sleep with one eye open. :annoyed
Thanks for that additional information. And when I looked at the appeal determination letter again, I see it says we estimated our 2022 income at $x when that actually was our 2021 estimate. I also see the letter lists as the SS address the office nearest where we lived then. We’ve since moved. It’s not clear to me how much of the processing is done in local offices and if they just put the local office address there even though it’s not in a national processing center. Anyway, the only year they could come back to us for is 2022. 2021 for 2023 and 2022 for 2024 were both below the IRMAA base.
HeelaMonster
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by HeelaMonster »

lstone19 wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:22 pm Thanks for that additional information. And when I looked at the appeal determination letter again, I see it says we estimated our 2022 income at $x when that actually was our 2021 estimate.
Bingo! That's exactly what our letter said. And what has now come back to bite us.

There may be at least one difference in our respective scenarios, despite the identical wording. In our case, we weren't enrolled in Medicare until last half of 2022. So by the time we filed appeal, we had the final tax return for 2021 in hand and could cite that with specificity, right down to the last dollar. In other words, it was an actual number for 2021 tax year, and not an estimate for either 2021 or 2022. Nevertheless, what SSA entered in the system apparently indicated the 2021 amount we provided was an "estimate for 2022." Which they subsequently determined that we had exceeded, by pointing to the income on our tax return from (...wait for it...) 2020!? :oops:

The good news is, I would think that you should have heard by now if you were going to be similarly dinged... so I hope that you are past the Window of Stupidity (WOS?). Good luck.
Last edited by HeelaMonster on Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
capran
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by capran »

dcop wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:06 pm Curious about what others are using for a safe MAGI estimate for 2023 income for 2025 Standard Level IRMAA. I'm leaning towards 103K.
We use the financebuff site, with the zero inflation going forward on their website. this year we pushed it closer than we ever have before, at MFJ at 209,500. the closer we get to the tax cuts expiration was most of what motivates me.
Navillus1968
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by Navillus1968 »

stevethefundguy wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:03 am
Artsdoctor wrote: Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:45 pm Wouldn't you always be applying for reconsideration of premium long after the tax year has ended? Let's say you asked for a reconsideration of Medicare premiums this year (2023) because you had a significant life status change in 2021, the year that was used to determine 2023's premium. That year's a closed book. Whatever happens this year (interest, dividends, Roth conversions, etc.) will influence your premiums in 2025.
I applied for an IRMAA reduction for this year (2023) because in 2023 my income this year would be below the threshold, and they granted it, although my income in 2021 was clearly above the threshold.

As Harry Sit writes: "If your income two years ago was higher because you were working at that time and now your income is significantly lower because you retired (“work reduction” or “work stoppage”), you can appeal the IRMAA initial determination."

So, my question was what if, having received a change of life status reduction below the IRMAA threshold for 2023 premiums, I were to end actually up with income over the IRMAA threshold for 2023 premiums?
I'm pretty sure that, eventually, somebody at SSA/Medicare would look at your actual IRS Form 1040 for 2023, see that your estimate for 2023 MAGI was too low and since your actual 2023 MAGI puts you in IRMAA Tier 1 (or Tier X), the government would retroactively adjust your SS benefit to clawback the IRMAA you owe for 2023.

I would assume this process works fairly slowly, since 2023 taxes aren't due until 15 APR, 2024 (or 15 OCT, with extensions), but I have no doubt that you will eventually pay IRMAA for 2023 if your actual MAGI was over the threshold. Your Form SSA-44 estimate for 2023 MAGI is just that- an estimate. Once you file your taxes, your actual 2023 MAGI determines IRMAA for 2023 after an appeal of 2021 MAGI.
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CardinalRule
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Re: Safe IRMAA Estimate 2023 for 2025

Post by CardinalRule »

Artsdoctor wrote: Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:28 pm Try this. Harry Sit is excellent and you won't get any better estimates:

https://thefinancebuff.com/medicare-irm ... ckets.html
Thanks for posting that. It looks like I will be at 2X for my first year of Medicare Part B in 2025. :( DW and I funded our DAF to the tune of $90,000 in 2023, but that of course doesn't help with MAGI. Hoping to better manage our MAGI in 2024, for 2026. Maybe I can at least get to 1.4X.
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