FiveK wrote: ↑Mon May 15, 2023 4:38 pm
fyre4ce wrote: ↑Sun May 14, 2023 4:59 pm
Maybe "your expected marginal tax rate when the money will eventually be withdrawn" is clearer? That covers cases of retirement, heirs, conversions along the way, etc.
Indeed it is vague, consistent with the general observation about the whole traditional vs. Roth issue that most answers should start with "it depends...."
One could quibble about the words "tax bracket" vs. "marginal tax rate" in the current "If you expect to be in a lower tax bracket in future years, wait until then to convert." One could also quibble that "when the money will eventually be withdrawn" could mislead people when the tax rates between "conversion" and "withdrawal" will differ. If there is no perfect phrase, and what is there is "good enough", keeping the status quo avoids never-ending wordcrafting. Of course, "good enough" is subjective....
Let's not lose track of the ultimate goal, which is to help as many readers as possible make good decisions about Roth conversions. The major downside of what you're proposing - leaving things intentionally vague to cover all your bases - is that readers are left without a clear understanding of what to do. Case in point: for the sentence we discussed below, I still don't understand what it's trying to say, even after several rounds of dialog with you. Sharpening things up a bit will aid understanding, and it's okay if it doesn't apply to literally every case, as long as it helps substantially more people than it hurts. Details further down the page are meant to cover those special cases.
Pretend for a moment we were writing a wiki page about blackjack strategy. "Always split aces and 8's" is a perfect example of really good advice. Easy to understand, easy to remember, no deep understanding of probability theory required, and accurate nearly all the time. Depending on the expected audience, we could add things like "...except surrender on 8-8 vs. dealer ace if the dealer hits a soft 17", expected value tables, etc. further down. It's our job as writers to do the complex thinking, analysis, computer simulations, etc. and boil that down to advice that will help as many readers as possible, as much as possible, while being as easy to digest as possible, acknowledging that no page will ever be perfect.
It seems you would want to say something like, "The best strategy depends on the cards that will be dealt." Definitely true, but doesn't advance the reader's understanding nearly as much. Similarly, though far from perfect, "The gain or benefit depends on ... your expected marginal tax rate when the money will eventually be withdrawn" seems an improvement over "in future years". Fair point about future withdrawals vs. conversions, but it's mentioned lower on the page that a conversion to be a type of withdrawal, so I don't see a big problem. Actually, the "expected" should probably be removed, because the expected value depends on expected future tax rates, but the [actual] value depends on [actual] future tax rates. We do the estimation today to best predict what to do with our limited information.
FiveK wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 8:49 pm
snip
The current phrase is "future years", not "any future year". Perhaps the most common application of this advice is to people who are currently working full time: for most of them, converting while working will not be best and they should wait for future years when they have either retired, or gone to part time, etc.
My response is similar to what I just wrote. I still don't understand what's trying to be said even after your explanation. I agree converting while in peak earnings years is probably not a good idea, but that advice is already covered by the table - "if current rates are much greater than predicted future rates, do not Roth-convert". The vagueness of that sentence is hurting more than it's helping. Take a look again at what I replaced it with. The table contains the standard advice for when to convert, and then the caveat is added below of, "if you're converting a big percentage of your balance and rates will be lower in future years, wait until then to convert." That covers all the example cases you and I have proposed, and it's clearer and more accurate than what's on the live page. Perfect? Definitely not. But an improvement? Yes, and that's enough to make the edit worthwhile.
FiveK wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 8:49 pm
I take your point about precision and accuracy. But here's my issue. If you are trying to calculate a result and decide to include a particular factor (here, capital gains tax from the sale), you need to include it everywhere in the calculation. Including it in some places (eg. on the front end) but not others (eg. on the back end) is a big no-no.
No, you don't, and no, it isn't.
I spent time working as an analyst in industry, and I know how analysis gets done when the results really matter. Choose your assumptions and method to give you the best accuracy and reasonable complexity, clearly state those assumptions, and understand the size and direction of potential error in your result. I'm telling you from years of experience, if you're going to say you're including capital gains tax, include it everywhere it belongs. Even if you think it doesn't matter, maybe someone comes along later with a case where it matters a lot more, and if they don't know you've excluded it somewhere, they could run into problems. Or maybe capital gains rates go up a lot and become more important. Who knows. But people get fired for doing things like that. Now, if it was way more work to include it somewhere, maybe you decide to leave it out
and clearly state that. But I went through the formulas for
taxable growth and
maxing out retirement accounts and it was very easy to modify to include. The basis formula has a 1 in it, and that gets replaced by the basis fraction. I already updated both pages, and updated my spreadsheet tool too, but I haven't yet published the latter. Yes, sometimes the analysis has a lot of uncertainty in the inputs. No, that's not an excuse to intentionally add errors by using less accurate math, especially when it's exactly the same amount of work for the user.
FiveK wrote: ↑Mon May 15, 2023 4:38 pmI agree you may have other funds available in the future, but that doesn't change the fact that with one option you'll be left with low-basis shares that you may have to pay capital gains tax to liquidate. If you want to assume a capital gains rate of 0, maybe if you're expecting to be in the 0% bracket or leave them to heirs, fine, plug 0 into the formula. But if the calculation is worth doing, it's worth doing accurately.
Again, "accuracy" and "many years in the future" are generally not compatible. Whether a similar adjustment is needed for future conversions/withdrawals will vary from person to person. For example, if SS benefits, RMDs, etc., are expected to be available in the future, no adjustment would be needed as there would be "cash on hand" to pay the tax.
To make an accurate assessment, you have to track the same set of dollars from now until withdrawal, with no extra money being added or subtracted to either case, or else it will throw your results off. This would be like someone saying, "I always contribute pre-tax no matter what, it saves me taxes now." "But you're in a low bracket now, and you'll have to pay taxes later." "Oh, I'll just pay the taxes with Social Security."

Maybe so, but if you go Roth you'll have those dollars available for spending, whereas you don't otherwise, and that needs to be accounted for. In any case, look at the formula
here, and unless you find an error, that's what I'll be using going forward because it looks to be the most accurate.