Projecting income/dividends for 2023 in Vanguard?

[boringinvestor]

Looking forward to 2023, I'm trying to find a way to project expected ordinary income / non-qualified dividends stemming from my Vanguard taxable account, for the purposes of calculating estimated taxes.

Looking at bond cash-flows doesn't seem to cut it, as Vanguard doesn't split out the expected income for zero-coupon treasuries (as far as I can tell).

Has anyone found a good solution for this?

[Random Poster]

For a basic estimate, I take what I received in dividends the past year and multiply that amount by 5 to 10 percent to estimate what next’s year amount will be.

For interest amounts, I just take the balance amount and multiply it by the SEC yield for the fund in question, and then adjust it either upward or downward a bit based on how I think interest rates will go throughout the year.

[Artsdoctor]

If you really have to, you can use 2022's numbers for 2023 for the dividends and add in any maturing treasuries for the interest. However, I've found that this is not really helpful, at least in my situation, since things change throughout the year. If you really want to do it, make sure that you realize that these numbers are nothing more than rough estimates. There are numerous postings of people being disappointed or surprised if the numbers don't work out so I wouldn't fall into that trap.

(For bond funds, the distribution yield and not the SEC yields are probably more reflective of what winds up on your return although this can change as well.)

[alex_686]

For bonds the best estimate would be the SEC yield.

While it has issues it has the fewest without factoring in interest rate changes.

[tibbitts]

Has anyone found a good solution for this?

I don't think most of us feel a need to do this. Most income adjustments you need to make, a Roth conversion for example, can occur on the last day of the year, once your income estimate has firmed up. I would just use last year plus a little bit.

[Ken.]

Vanguard provides the estimated income and estimated yield info on their monthly statements for each investment that you own. It took me a while to find it and it was only after I remembered a post about this last year. Vanguard Search didn't have any info about this.

[VanGar+Goyle]

Vanguard provides the estimated income and estimated yield info on their monthly statements for each investment that you own. It took me a while to find it and it was only after I remembered a post about this last year. Vanguard Search didn't have any info about this.

How accurate are those monthly estimated income projections?
Now that we have many of our 2023 distributions, that may be knowable.
Still unknown are some monthly payments like money markets, but the accrued interest may be visible online.

[Claudia Whitten]

Has anyone found a good solution for this?

Not in Vanguard. Schwab does this automatically in its app and website. This is a deficiency of the Vanguard interface, I think.

You can paste your holdings into ChatGPT and ask what your dividend income will be. It's pretty good at that, I find.

[secondcor521]

I use Vanguard's YTD tax page which should work when you're logged in at https://taxcenter.cdn.web.vanguard.com/ytd-activity. It's not a projection but it does track YTD which is all I need.