James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

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JohnFiscal
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James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by JohnFiscal »

i-orp.com is "off-line". Saw this posted at the early retirement forum, I'm surprised there's nothing here at BH.

Anyone got any info? I worked a lot with i-ORP for a number of years (and wasn't done yet). And I'd pester James all the time with issues I found, bugs or perceived bugs, or my misunderstanding. i-ORP really is a solid analytical tool.

James is getting up there in age, I hope he's okay. I hope i-ORP is okay.
Dottie57
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Dottie57 »

I hope i-orp will come back. But I always thought it was way too optimistic. Firecalc at least used used backtesting.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Johnsson »

I just looked for the site and found it offline as well.

With all it's limitations I also believe it's a very valuable tool.

I hope James is doing well.
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra
rmprescott
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by rmprescott »

>I hope James is doing well.

Same thought.

I wonder if there has ever been any thought to open-source the engine for continuity.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by smitcat »

I also hope James doing well....
It is a great tool for us as well, he is very good at looking at problems and working improvements.
moorso
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by moorso »

Yes I hope he is doing well. Very valuable tool for me and hope we havent seen the end of this software. Apparently nobody has heard anything more?
quantAndHold
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by quantAndHold »

Gosh, I hope this is just a glitch, and it comes back. James is elderly, but the last I read on his site (a couple of years ago), he had a succession plan in place. I do run it once a year, and find the data it generates to be valuable.

FWIW, I spent some time a couple of years ago trying to learn linear programming, with one of the ideas to create a replacement for i-orp that was more specific to my own needs. All I ended up accomplishing was to discover how many moving parts i-orp has, and how much time it would take to replace it.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
hawkfan55
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Is i-orp.com offline?

Post by hawkfan55 »

[Post merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

Is i-orp.com offline?
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged hawkfan55's thread into the ongoing discussion.
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Tdubs
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Tdubs »

Given James' age, I hoped he had a transition plan in place. Wonderful tool he created.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Dazed&Confused »

Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
is50xenough
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by is50xenough »

Always thought this was a great site and really appreciated how helpful James Welch was in responding to individual emails. A real legend and mensch
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by tibbitts »

Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
I'm pretty sure if he posted here that he was looking for someone to hand the site over to, there would be seventeen new (and each completely different) I-ORP sites online by tomorrow morning.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Admiral »

tibbitts wrote: Wed Jul 20, 2022 4:11 pm
Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
I'm pretty sure if he posted here that he was looking for someone to hand the site over to, there would be seventeen new (and each completely different) I-ORP sites online by tomorrow morning.
:D So, so true. And there would be 20 new i-ORP Wikis with illustrations.

Hope it comes back, very useful tool.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Church Lady »

In the meantime, any good alternatives to i-orp?
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feh
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i-orp alternative?

Post by feh »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

It seems i-orp.com has been down for several weeks. Maybe they are no longer offering their services?

Regardless, my spouse and I have entered the decumulation phase at age 56, and I'd like to investigate a tool for helping us decide where to pull money from, if Roth conversions make sense, etc.

Is there another tool I could use for investigating these questions?

Thanks.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged feh's thread into the ongoing discussion.

(Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
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Re: i-orp alternative?

Post by smitcat »

feh wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

It seems i-orp.com has been down for several weeks. Maybe they are no longer offering their services?

Regardless, my spouse and I have entered the decumulation phase at age 56, and I'd like to investigate a tool for helping us decide where to pull money from, if Roth conversions make sense, etc.

Is there another tool I could use for investigating these questions?

Thanks.
Two different tools come to mind that are much more detailed with the tradeoff that they both require much more upfront time to set up and understand the results.
One is the excellent and free spreadsheet calculator from 'Bigfoot' here on the Bogle site - RPM calculator.
Second is the excellent and moderately priced calculator - Pralana Gold.
Neither offers the quick set up and results that the extended IORP offered.
Both offer a more detailed and more accurate view of the potential future model when you take the time to set them up and work with them.
Each requires maybe 10X (??) the amount of time to set up and utilize then the IORP when modeling.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by LadyGeek »

smitcat wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:44 pm One is the excellent and free spreadsheet calculator from 'Bigfoot' here on the Bogle site - RPM calculator.
It's in the wiki here: Retiree Portfolio Model
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chassis
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Re: i-orp alternative?

Post by chassis »

feh wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

It seems i-orp.com has been down for several weeks. Maybe they are no longer offering their services?

Regardless, my spouse and I have entered the decumulation phase at age 56, and I'd like to investigate a tool for helping us decide where to pull money from, if Roth conversions make sense, etc.

Is there another tool I could use for investigating these questions?

Thanks.
RPM spreadsheet and one’s own home grown spreadsheet.
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Re: i-orp alternative?

Post by dcabler »

chassis wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:53 pm
feh wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:12 pm [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

It seems i-orp.com has been down for several weeks. Maybe they are no longer offering their services?

Regardless, my spouse and I have entered the decumulation phase at age 56, and I'd like to investigate a tool for helping us decide where to pull money from, if Roth conversions make sense, etc.

Is there another tool I could use for investigating these questions?

Thanks.
RPM spreadsheet and one’s own home grown spreadsheet.
Here's one by a fellow BH'er, but you need to understand spreadsheets pretty well.
viewtopic.php?t=365518
lairdb
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by lairdb »

Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year:
lairdb wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:12 pm - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing regulatory changes, not just math and UI.)
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:24 pm I actually know a lot of CFP's and have talked to them about the lack of tools out there that map out tax consequences of withdrawing in a certain order, and don't necessarily have the flexibility to show clients how X, Y, and Z adjustments would effect their portfolio. The tax-efficiency portion of i-ORP actually IS something I would love to replicate. But honestly, it'll have to wait until my own early retirement haha. I'm not sure that I have the free-time or the will to make that happen right now (especially due to the fact that I can't profit off of any financial-related services due to my current employer)
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by lauren_knows »

lairdb wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:37 pm
Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year:
lairdb wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:12 pm - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing regulatory changes, not just math and UI.)
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:24 pm I actually know a lot of CFP's and have talked to them about the lack of tools out there that map out tax consequences of withdrawing in a certain order, and don't necessarily have the flexibility to show clients how X, Y, and Z adjustments would effect their portfolio. The tax-efficiency portion of i-ORP actually IS something I would love to replicate. But honestly, it'll have to wait until my own early retirement haha. I'm not sure that I have the free-time or the will to make that happen right now (especially due to the fact that I can't profit off of any financial-related services due to my current employer)
Oh wow, this would be a huge loss if i-orp was offline! I always wanted to replicate that tax efficiency logic, but that will be a lot harder without a baseline app.

As a fellow website maintainer, I def wonder about when I'll not be able to maintain it anymore. I'm 41 now, so here's to hoping for a couple more decades!

Edit: I totally missed this quote!
Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice.
Wish I could see that source code! I've always wanted to integrate i-ORP with backtesting capabilities and newer UI.
Last edited by lauren_knows on Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
41 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Johnsson »

lauren_knows wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:52 pm
lairdb wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:37 pm
Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year:
lairdb wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:12 pm - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing regulatory changes, not just math and UI.)
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:24 pm I actually know a lot of CFP's and have talked to them about the lack of tools out there that map out tax consequences of withdrawing in a certain order, and don't necessarily have the flexibility to show clients how X, Y, and Z adjustments would effect their portfolio. The tax-efficiency portion of i-ORP actually IS something I would love to replicate. But honestly, it'll have to wait until my own early retirement haha. I'm not sure that I have the free-time or the will to make that happen right now (especially due to the fact that I can't profit off of any financial-related services due to my current employer)
Oh wow, this would be a huge loss if i-orp was offline! I always wanted to replicate that tax efficiency logic, but that will be a lot harder without a baseline app.

I don't know if he's still checking this email, but, you could try contacting

As a fellow website maintainer, I def wonder about when I'll not be able to maintain it anymore. I'm 41 now, so here's to hoping for a couple more decades!

Edit: I totally missed this quote!
Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice.
Wish I could see that source code! I've always wanted to integrate i-ORP with backtesting capabilities and newer UI.
I don't know if he's still checking this email, but, you could try contacting James at orplanner@gmail.com...
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by lauren_knows »

Johnsson wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:53 am
lauren_knows wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:52 pm
lairdb wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:37 pm
Dazed&Confused wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:03 pm Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice. He does appreciate everyone's concern.
Alas, I was afraid of this. From the cFIREsim thread sometime last year:
lairdb wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:12 pm - I'm glad to see your relative youth -- once of my concerns about i-ORP is that the maintainer has no legacy plan (AFAIK) and I don't know of a good alternate. Any interest or thoughts in replicating or building upon i-ORP's tools? (Two arguments against: I sense you like simplicity, and the inputs required are non-simple; also the maintenance burden is tracking and implementing regulatory changes, not just math and UI.)
lauren_knows wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:24 pm I actually know a lot of CFP's and have talked to them about the lack of tools out there that map out tax consequences of withdrawing in a certain order, and don't necessarily have the flexibility to show clients how X, Y, and Z adjustments would effect their portfolio. The tax-efficiency portion of i-ORP actually IS something I would love to replicate. But honestly, it'll have to wait until my own early retirement haha. I'm not sure that I have the free-time or the will to make that happen right now (especially due to the fact that I can't profit off of any financial-related services due to my current employer)
Oh wow, this would be a huge loss if i-orp was offline! I always wanted to replicate that tax efficiency logic, but that will be a lot harder without a baseline app.

I don't know if he's still checking this email, but, you could try contacting

As a fellow website maintainer, I def wonder about when I'll not be able to maintain it anymore. I'm 41 now, so here's to hoping for a couple more decades!

Edit: I totally missed this quote!
Was able to receive some information on this topic. Jim is no longer able to maintain the I-ORP website. He is looking to find and hand over to another developer going forward but that is still in the works. The website will be down until further notice.
Wish I could see that source code! I've always wanted to integrate i-ORP with backtesting capabilities and newer UI.
I don't know if he's still checking this email, but, you could try contacting James at orplanner@gmail.com...
I contacted the company that was listed on i-ORP's site before it went down (I used the web archive to figure that out). They said that Jim has moved to assisted living and is in the process of finding a developer to take it over (like someone said above). I told them that if they didn't find anyone, I was more than happy to help, but I'm sure he already has someone in mind. :happy
41 - Married - 2 kids - Aiming for FI/ER in early 40s - Creator of cFIREsim
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by spammagnet »

lauren_knows wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:11 am... I contacted the company that was listed on i-ORP's site before it went down (I used the web archive to figure that out). They said that Jim has moved to assisted living and is in the process of finding a developer to take it over (like someone said above). I told them that if they didn't find anyone, I was more than happy to help, but I'm sure he already has someone in mind. :happy
I corresponded with Jim in the past on this topic. He was looking for a successor then, too. I wouldn't assume he found anybody. I think he expected to be able to impose some restrictions on how it was used or developed in the future. I don't know if that's a reasonable expectation.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by VanGar+Goyle »

I-ORP The Optimal Retirement Planner is still offline as of Oct 11, and is not listed on the BH list of tools.
I am sad, as I found it useful, and hope that it can be supported in the future.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by davidski »

I had asked some time ago about posting the code up on GitHub, allowing others (depending on the license) to maintain and extend iORP, but was rebuffed. I personally was interested in doing some work to bring iORP into a different programing environment. It will be a real loss if, as the current state seems, the tool is lost to the community.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by FiveK »

davidski wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:24 pm I had asked some time ago about posting the code up on GitHub, allowing others (depending on the license) to maintain and extend iORP, but was rebuffed.
Ouch. That seems inconsistent with James' long history of providing this tool for free. Did you get a sense of whether the plan is for a new owner to monetize I-ORP, or just let it die?
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by davidski »

FiveK wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 7:56 pm
davidski wrote: Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:24 pm I had asked some time ago about posting the code up on GitHub, allowing others (depending on the license) to maintain and extend iORP, but was rebuffed.
Ouch. That seems inconsistent with James' long history of providing this tool for free. Did you get a sense of whether the plan is for a new owner to monetize I-ORP, or just let it die?
My impression was that James was not familiar with GitHub and didn't have the time/energy to engage on the topic rather than being opposed to it. I totally understand, though I would have been (and still am) willing to help get the code up on GitHub should he (or some other involved party) be up for it.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Rob Relyea »

I also view this as a big loss. I’ve tried reaching out to him as well, but haven’t gotten a reply.
Happy to help make something happen, if we can reach him and understand any of his concerns/reservations.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by dav1dr4y »

I just noticed today that i-ORP is back online. There are no recent words or news about any change of status. But it is working.

/David
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by dcabler »

dav1dr4y wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:19 pm I just noticed today that i-ORP is back online. There are no recent words or news about any change of status. But it is working.

/David
Yep. I saw that somebody posted this news in another forum as well.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Tdubs »

dcabler wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:39 pm
dav1dr4y wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:19 pm I just noticed today that i-ORP is back online. There are no recent words or news about any change of status. But it is working.

/David
Yep. I saw that somebody posted this news in another forum as well.
Wow, that's terrific. I never noticed before the line on the main page that "ORP is sponsored by Dynaxys LLC." Is that new?
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Rob Relyea »

Yesterday, I reached out via a message to connect via LinkedIn to the President of Dynaxys and pointed to this thread and asked for help reaching Jim. Didn’t get a reply, but happy to see that it may have helped revive the site!?! Perhaps just a coincidence though?
Last edited by Rob Relyea on Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by sycamore »

Tdubs wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:42 pm
dcabler wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:39 pm
dav1dr4y wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:19 pm I just noticed today that i-ORP is back online. There are no recent words or news about any change of status. But it is working.

/David
Yep. I saw that somebody posted this news in another forum as well.
Wow, that's terrific. I never noticed before the line on the main page that "ORP is sponsored by Dynaxys LLC." Is that new?
It appears it's been that way for a while. The wayback machine shows that same message in a snapshot taken in November 2020.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Tdubs »

sycamore wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:27 pm
Tdubs wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:42 pm
dcabler wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:39 pm
dav1dr4y wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:19 pm I just noticed today that i-ORP is back online. There are no recent words or news about any change of status. But it is working.

/David
Yep. I saw that somebody posted this news in another forum as well.
Wow, that's terrific. I never noticed before the line on the main page that "ORP is sponsored by Dynaxys LLC." Is that new?
It appears it's been that way for a while. The wayback machine shows that same message in a snapshot taken in November 2020.
Ah, never looked at it before, but thought it might mean he found someone to sponsor the site.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by mouth »

Without digging in, can't tell if the tax tables are updated. Last message was 2020 about updating to those tables. :shock:
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by dcabler »

mouth wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:21 pm Without digging in, can't tell if the tax tables are updated. Last message was 2020 about updating to those tables. :shock:
At the bottom of the home page it says "Last updated November 8th, 2018"

Cheers
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by Exchme »

dcabler wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:41 pm
mouth wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:21 pm Without digging in, can't tell if the tax tables are updated. Last message was 2020 about updating to those tables. :shock:
At the bottom of the home page it says "Last updated November 8th, 2018"

Cheers
I just ran a case and the tax brackets are for 2022. Presumably the 2018 updates are programming logic changes, not just tax bracket updates.
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i-ORP back online

Post by HeavyChevy »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

I was able to open i-ORP this morning. I hadn't seen this availability posted, apologies if old news.
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Re: i-ORP back online

Post by student »

It was back online earlier. viewtopic.php?p=6976468#p6976468

Maybe you can request the moderator to merge into that thread.
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Re: i-ORP back online

Post by HeavyChevy »

Thx. Did quick search, but didn't find that.
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Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged HeavyChevy's thread into the ongoing discussion.

(Request received, thanks.)
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spammagnet
Posts: 2013
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2016 9:42 pm

Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by spammagnet »

I initiated correspondence with Mr. Welch back in 2018 about ORP succession. I gather that he was not unwell at the time but was aware of his mortality. Whatever has happened to him since that time, I have no idea.

He responded that he was "... open to any and all inquiries". Not having the means or expertise to do anything about that, I proposed hosting it here. I had no idea whether that's even feasible and was firmly rebuffed here.
From: James Welch
Sent: Friday, July 6, 2018 10:35
To: <spammagnet>
Subject: Re: ORP Glide Path

[irrelevant part redacted] ...

With respect to ORP succession, No one has expressed the slightest interest in the ORP source code or model formulation. I am open to any and all inquiries.

James Welch
ORP
From: James Welch
Sent: Friday, July 6, 2018 11:41 AM
To: <spammagnet>
Subject: Re: ORP Glide Path

You have my permission to launch a thread in Bogleheads. Who knows what will crawl out of the woodwork.

Dynaxys hosts ORP's web site mostly to provide for my entertainment (The President and owner and I go way back.). I assume, without confirmation, that they would continue to provide hosting until such time as the model becomes obsolete due to changes in the tax law. They make no claim on ORP, and no promises of support. They have no interest in taking on an open source obligation for this bag of worms.

...
James Welch
ORP
jatatoo
Posts: 1
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2022 8:13 am

Re: James Welch and i-ORP off-line?

Post by jatatoo »

If something gets off the ground re: ORP succession, and should anyone have an interest, I have the conceptual and implementation background on the ORP Extended "Phases of Retirement" input section. This includes extensive correspondence with James re: same from mid 2019 through the first quarter of 2021, and extends through the draft "The Phases of Retirement" under the ORP Articles tab, which covers one way in which the Phases of Retirement can be utilized. Additional uses are touched on under "Phases of Retirement Paradigm" in the extended Input Parameter Help Document.
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