Equity in startup

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DCA2021
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Equity in startup

Post by DCA2021 »

Hi All,

I received an offer from a startup ( my background isn’t in tech but my background is in the product they are trying to revolutionize)…equity isn’t common in my field so I’m still learning about it.

Anyway- how much should equity be worth in my decision making process? Some people say I’ve talked to say value it at zero.

5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.

What are your thoughts?
runner3081
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by runner3081 »

Correct, value at zero. (at least that is my opinion)

I still technically have 2% straight ownership of a zombie startup after being hired as employee #1.
alex_686
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by alex_686 »

Why are you asking?

Are you trying to construct your asset allocation? Probably zero. I can make a decent argument on why it should be included in your asset allocation. Convention is that it should be treated as a equity with a hefty haircut for being a 1) concentrated 2) illiquid 3) risky and 4) correlated with your human capital.

Are we talking about employment concentration or something else? That would have a different answer.
Former brokerage operations & mutual fund accountant. I hate risk, which is why I study and embrace it.
Afty
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Afty »

There must be a more nuanced answer to this than “value at 0.” I’d imagine there is some spectrum of maturity of startup where the equity becomes more and more likely to pan out. I’d also guess that no one would choose to work for a startup if they really did value startup equity at 0. I’d be curious to hear more thoughts on this.
simas
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by simas »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm Hi All,

I received an offer from a startup ( my background isn’t in tech but my background is in the product they are trying to revolutionize)…equity isn’t common in my field so I’m still learning about it.

Anyway- how much should equity be worth in my decision making process? Some people say I’ve talked to say value it at zero.

5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.

What are your thoughts?
+1 to why are you asking? The amounts mentioned are not going to be life changing anyway even if it works.
Also , the numbers dont make sense - unless they are doing backdating of the options, I am not sure they can offer you options at price that is a fraction of known valuation.. isnt this illegal?

options are for you to capture FUTURE growth, they can not be used to give you something now at price that is known to be wrong..
Topic Author
DCA2021
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by DCA2021 »

The reason I ask is because when you are offered a job removing work life balance etc. it comes down to money. And when comparing current compensation to offered compensation I’m
Wondering how I should account for the stock.
hi_there
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by hi_there »

"5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40."

I would start with a base value of $165k (the intrinsic value) divided by 5 years, which is $33k a year. Then, discount that for illiquidity, uncertainty in the valuation, and the probability that you won't be working there in 5 years. So, the range, based on this framework, is $0 to $33k. You can decide what sub range would make a material difference in your decision to work there.
London
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by London »

This is an art, not a science. Basically you have to assess the likelihood of success on your own and use that to “discount” the NPV.

I don’t like the answer of “value them at zero”, but I wouldn’t over value them either.

Aside from being a founder, the best time to join one of these is after a good round of funding (to give you some certainty), but before a massive round of funding (so your strike price is still low).
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anon_investor
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by anon_investor »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:00 pm The reason I ask is because when you are offered a job removing work life balance etc. it comes down to money. And when comparing current compensation to offered compensation I’m
Wondering how I should account for the stock.
Count it like funny money, a lotto ticket. There is no guarantee that those shares will be worth anything. Just look at WeWork...
Marseille07
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Marseille07 »

I usually do 0.8x for RSUs; for pre-IPO stock options though, I'd probably value at 0.2x. In this case, 5000 * $33 (assuming exercising at $40) * 0.2 = 33K, or 6.6K/year of compensation for this piece.
Zombies
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Zombies »

Startup founder here.

Of course you shouldn't value it at zero - if they were truly worth zero, no one worth their salt would work at startups. This is a really strange answer that is the "conventional wisdom" expressed on forums.

You also shouldn't value it at whatever it's currently worth today. You need to factor in risk -- and risk is high for all startups, although they do lessen with subsequent funding rounds. The risk will never go to zero, but joining a profitable, Series D or E startup and saying the options are worth nothing is ridiculous.

You need to build out a sensitivity analysis with your own inputs to figure out how much it's worth to you. What do you think the chance is of the company going to zero? Plug that in. What do you think the chance is of the company exiting at $100M? $250M? $500M? $1B? $10B? Etc.

Tbh, the percentages of the "high numbers" are low enough that they don't actually impact the overall expected value that much. The EV could be higher than current valuation or lower, depending on upside and risk.

If you have no idea where to even begin, that's fine, just ask some folks who are familiar with the company/space/etc.

I hire people who take massive pay cuts all the time. They don't come just for the equity - they come because they find the mission interesting, the team fun to work with, and the actual work exciting. But they absolutely are valuing the startup equity and running analyses on it. If it was worthless or near worthless, no one would complain about 0.1% or 3%, but I can tell you every 0.1% is clawed after by many folks, as well they should.
milktoast
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by milktoast »

Zombies wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:11 pm Of course you shouldn't value it at zero - if they were truly worth zero, no one worth their salt would work at startups. This is a really strange answer that is the "conventional wisdom" expressed on forums.
Yeah. When it comes to comp, shares are obviously not worth zero. When it comes to spending, it's zero until it is sold.

I've been down this road a few times. It isn't about number of shares or strike, it is all about percentage of outstanding shares. They will hem and haw and say they can't exactly say because there are authorized shares, issued shares, unvested shares, convertable debt, etc.

Try to nail down as best you can what percentage of the current shares your equity represents.

Then project out your thoughts of how much the company would be worth if it succeeds and what the odds of success are in your mind. Be optimistic on both counts, but not starry eyed. Do the math (exit valuation * equity percentage). Then if you think you can survive on the base compensation and would be happy with the upside and odds, go for it. If you can't be optimistic, you probably aren't cut out for it.

And if it doesn't work, spend the late portion of your career slogging it out a mega corp. The breadth of experience and industry connections that I made during those several startups makes me very valuable to my megacorp.

I knew it was time to switch to mega corp when I realized that I just couldn't be optimistic any more in the face of my wife wanting a new house and my kids only a couple years away from college. So that's when I pivoted. It's like asset allocation. If you need the money within the next two years, it shouldn't be in stocks and it definitely shouldn't be in startup equity.
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Taylor Larimore »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm Hi All,

I received an offer from a startup ( my background isn’t in tech but my background is in the product they are trying to revolutionize)…equity isn’t common in my field so I’m still learning about it.

Anyway- how much should equity be worth in my decision making process? Some people say I’ve talked to say value it at zero.

5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.

What are your thoughts?
DCA2021:

When I was with the SBA, we liked to see 50% equity when lending to a start-up small business. This could be modified based on the borrower's business experience, credit and collateral.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Being an entrepreneur is not for the faint of heart. It is a high-risk, high-reward proposition."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
CFOKevin
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by CFOKevin »

DCA2021,

Before you proceed forward in attempting to value your options, you're going to have to get your numbers straight. It's not easy to do. But it shows you are serious about the opportunity and your career. Long gone are the days when common option strike prices could be set at 80-90% discounts from the preferred share price in the latest round. If the latest round was at $40 per share and your strike price is $7, that would actually mean that the Company's value had declined by roughly 80% since the close of that round (unlikely, but possible) and you'd probably want to run away.

More likely to me is that the most recent round values the Company at $40 million and your strike price of $7 per share is equal to the share value of the preferred. That would imply that you are receiving an option grant of 5,000 shares when there are 5.71 million shares outstanding or roughly a tenth of a percent of the Company. If correct and you are not being hired for an entry level position, I would suggest you ask them to improve their offer significantly as to the size of the option grant.

Placing a value on your option shares is as much art as science. An average return for VCs on an early stage investment is 3x. However, about 50% go to $0 and one in fifteen investments returns 20X or more. And, for the investments that have modest returns, the preferred investors usually do better then those who hold common shares.

I suggest only making the jump into start-up land (where I spent 80% of my career) if you feel you can reasonably make as much on your equity as you'll make on your salary. And, the salary should be at market rate for your position.

Let me know if you have any other questions and good luck evaluating your offer.

Kevin
Zombies
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Zombies »

Agree with milktoast re: assigning no value to your personal net worth of the equity until liquidity. But for purposes of evaluating an offer, you have to figure out what they’re worth to you.

Also agree re: get the percentage. I don’t play games - I always offer percentages. If they’re not willing to tell you what percentage of the company it represents, it speaks to a likely non-transparent culture. I always tell people our last valuation as well.

CFOKevin - 409A values are still dramatically different than preferred. Having a preferred price of $40/share and a common value of $7/share doesn’t seem odd at all, especially depending on what provisions were in the preferred.
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by CFOKevin »

Zombies,

In the latest ten deals I'm familiar with (mostly tech in the Midwest), "discounts" are in a tight range from 0-20%.

More significant discounts could result from "outside of market" preferences on the preferred shares (2x participating, excessive dividends, etc.) but those seem pretty rare these days.

I'd appreciate knowing more about greater discounts resulting from 409A evaluations if you can share. Perhaps the valuation firms I've been recommending are behind the times.

Kevin
Zombies
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Zombies »

Kevin -

My latest data is from Carta’s evaluations. They’re still relatively new at doing them so it’s possible they are being overly aggressive. But there’s still been a sizable spread that I’ve seen.

It heavily depends on methodology, stage of company, projections, and so on so there’s definitely a world where both our experiences are accurate and neither is correct or incorrect :)
CFOKevin
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by CFOKevin »

Thanks, I appreciate your perspective and wish all founders were as straightforward as you when it comes to sharing percentages with prospective new hires. Coming on board in an early stage start-up is a huge move and not one to be done with stars in your eyes.

Cheers,

Kevin
phantom0308
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by phantom0308 »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm Hi All,

I received an offer from a startup ( my background isn’t in tech but my background is in the product they are trying to revolutionize)…equity isn’t common in my field so I’m still learning about it.

Anyway- how much should equity be worth in my decision making process? Some people say I’ve talked to say value it at zero.

5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.

What are your thoughts?
What series startup is it and how much money have big investors already put into it (you can find this on crunch base). A later stage startup with billions in funding could be valued more than zero (e.g. Airbnb/ Uber recently though also wework as a notable counter example ). Are you sure you’re receiving shares and not just options (ISOs)? When they provide a valuation there is also a 409a evaluation for the IRS (lower) and preferred shares (higher) so understand which one.

Here is a good page on equity that I used recently as someone from the Midwest where equity grants are rare.
https://github.com/jlevy/og-equity-compensation
shess
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by shess »

Zombies wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:11 pm I hire people who take massive pay cuts all the time. They don't come just for the equity - they come because they find the mission interesting, the team fun to work with, and the actual work exciting.
IMHO, at the individual-contributor level, this is where the focus should be. Many years ago, I was having a discussion with my wife about the offers I had on the table. One was same-old same-old at my employer's acquirer, one was at an excellent company which would have went very well, but felt "known" to me, and the last involved a pay cut, which did make me take a step back. But as we discussed things, I told my wife I thought that the people I had talked to at the pay-cut company were so amazing that I just couldn't bear to not at least give them a chance. That was consistent with my past work choices, which always seemed to work out well, because while an individual company may not do well financially, the people I worked with were excellent, and when they scattered to the four winds, they seeded plenty of places to consider as a next bet.

While I'm not going to say "Just ignore valuation", I do think that if your reasoning for going to a startup is because of a big equity payout, you should reconsider. 2021 isn't 1998. The averages are still attractive, but you don't get to buy the index in this case. And, on the flip side, I don't want to be surrounded by a bunch of mercenaries. So get the best package you can get, and then try not to focus on how the package impacts your net worth and asset allocation, because it's not real until it's real.

Also, these days if you are strong enough to warrant an objectively-good options package in a startup, you're strong enough to warrant an objectively-good salary+RSU package at an established tech company. This is also different from the 90's, where you often had to go outside of tech companies to get a highly-paid tech job (for instance, working at trading firms on wall street. Ugh). Again, I think that means you should mostly look at non-financial benefits of the company.
pseudoiterative
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by pseudoiterative »

Check out Dan Luu's short article on startup options vs cash.
milktoast wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:37 pm It isn't about number of shares or strike, it is all about percentage of outstanding shares. They will hem and haw and say they can't exactly say because there are authorized shares, issued shares, unvested shares, convertable debt, etc.
Good advice. To even roughly roughly estimate the value of the common stock you'd need to know:
  • the company's cap table (containing all the data milktoast suggests they may hem and haw over and not want to tell you)
  • details about all the different classes of shares - e.g. Dan's example shows how common stock (as typically given to employees) naively valued at $500k might instead be worth $285k or $0k after taking account of a 1x or 2x liquidation preference on the preferred shares owned by VCs in the event that the company is sold.
Further, Dan argues:
even if you can get [access to review the cap table] (which you usually can’t), determining the appropriate numbers to plug into a model that will give you the expected value is non-trivial because it requires answering questions like “what’s the probability that, in an acquisition, upper management will collude with investors to keep everything and leave the employees with nothing?”
Here's a hypothetical example of the kind of scenario Dan is talking about. Say the company gets acquired for $50m -- maybe the acquisition deal can be structured as $20m for the investors (who had enough power in the early days of the company to be issued preferred stock to ensure they get paid in events like this) and the remaining $30m shared between remaining stock holders (upper management & employees), or perhaps there are ways it can be structured to return $20m to the investors and $29m in retention bonuses for upper management to stay on as consultants for two years after the acquisition, and $1m for common stock holders (employees). Since the deal is struck between the company's upper management, the investors and the acquirer, as a lowly common stock holder you're not in a position of control to influence the terms of the agreement, you may get largely or entirely cut out of the deal.
Last edited by pseudoiterative on Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
pseudoiterative
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by pseudoiterative »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm 5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.
Be very careful with the reasoning behind applying that valuation to your situation. Reusing the valuation of investors as the valuation for the shares you are being offered relies on two key implicit assumptions that are very likely false:
  1. you will be granted the same class of shares with exactly the same privileges (preferred stock, same liquidation preference, anti-dilution clause, whatever) as the investors who participated in the last funding round; and
  2. the shares are worth the same to you as an investor. Why are the shares worth more to an investor? Investors will be better able to diversify away the risk (by investing in many startups) and also have more control in the event of an acquisition etc (they probably got a seat on the board which gives them some power to nudge future deals in their favour - increasing the value of their chunk of the company - will you get a seat on the board too?)
Trader Joe
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by Trader Joe »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:39 pm Hi All,

I received an offer from a startup ( my background isn’t in tech but my background is in the product they are trying to revolutionize)…equity isn’t common in my field so I’m still learning about it.

Anyway- how much should equity be worth in my decision making process? Some people say I’ve talked to say value it at zero.

5 year vesting period,I would receive about 5k shares, strike is $7 and value based on last round of funding is about $40.

What are your thoughts?
Yes, zero value.
bogledogle
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by bogledogle »

DCA2021 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:00 pm The reason I ask is because when you are offered a job removing work life balance etc. it comes down to money. And when comparing current compensation to offered compensation I’m
Wondering how I should account for the stock.
If you are looking at pure cash value, the easy answer is zero. You need to look at the base salary and figure out if the time would be worth it to you.

But you should factor in startup failures rates, where the initial capital came from, founder's previous successful exits, core staff's previous successful exits, how many years the startup is around for, which industry, how close they are to their MVP ..etc

Don't forget the resume capital you will gain from a successful startup exit, or even a late stage failure.
AlohaJoe
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by AlohaJoe »

Afty wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:20 pm There must be a more nuanced answer to this than “value at 0.”
A regular employee doesn't have enough information to give a more nuanced answer. What does the cap table look like? What are the provisions of the investment contracts? How much dilution do they allow? Under what conditions? Are there any convertible notes involved or is it purely equity? Any debt? Who holds the debt? What is the founder/board's feelings on cashing out versus hypergrowth of the business to be a Unicorn? Are they in it for control (less likely to ever have a liquidity event) or for more money (more likely)? Have they taken VC? How many rounds? Have early investors cashed out to later investors or are they still invested? How many years left until the fund has to distribute gains to their LPs? What's the burn rate? How long did it take to close the last round of funding (was it easy or hard)? What are the unit economics of the company like? What does the pitch deck look like? What stories are they telling potential investors? Do you have "nice" owners that are likely to set up a tender offer to give employees liquidity even without an IPO/acquisition?

All of those things affect the possibility of it being greater than zero.
milktoast
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by milktoast »

pseudoiterative wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:07 pm Here's a hypothetical example of the kind of scenario Dan is talking about. Say the company gets acquired for $50m -- maybe the acquisition deal can be structured as $20m for the investors (who had enough power in the early days of the company to be issued preferred stock to ensure they get paid in events like this) and the remaining $30m shared between remaining stock holders (upper management & employees), or perhaps there are ways it can be structured to return $20m to the investors and $29m in retention bonuses for upper management to stay on as consultants for two years after the acquisition, and $1m for common stock holders (employees). Since the deal is struck between the company's upper management, the investors and the acquirer, as a lowly common stock holder you're not in a position of control to influence the terms of the agreement, you may get largely or entirely cut out of the deal.
It can happen. But unlikely. Or rather that isn’t the full story.

Usually in an acquisition the bigger company wants both the IP and the know how. They may end up sending all the money to the investors with liquidation preferences and the execs. But for current employees, they will offer competitive pay and some sort of golden handcuffs to make the acquisition successful.

But yeah. Common shares being wiped isn’t unusual due to liquidation preferences.

That said. If it inspires you, go for it. The resume value can be huge. Over 15 years in several moderately successful startups (including an ipo) my total common stock never reached seven figures. But I make that every year due to the value of my startup experiences to my mega Corp employer.
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ClevrChico
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by ClevrChico »

I value equity and variable comp at $0, as that what it has a strong potential to be worth. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

If you're joining the company anyway, then there's really no negative. But, I wouldn't take a paycut for a lottery ticket.
simas
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by simas »

Zombies wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:11 pm Startup founder here.

Of course you shouldn't value it at zero - if they were truly worth zero, no one worth their salt would work at startups. This is a really strange answer that is the "conventional wisdom" expressed on forums.

You also shouldn't value it at whatever it's currently worth today. You need to factor in risk -- and risk is high for all startups, although they do lessen with subsequent funding rounds. The risk will never go to zero, but joining a profitable, Series D or E startup and saying the options are worth nothing is ridiculous.
turning your argument around is - what is a value of random lottery ticket? the one with unknown play date, unknown time until any payout, unknown payout amount, and unknown whether it would actually happen at all. Answer - it should not be a factor in your calculations, aka the value is close enough to zero to be essentially zero aka "zero".

"
Of course you shouldn't value it at zero - if they were truly worth zero, no one worth would ever buy lottery tickets. This is a really strange answer that is the "conventional wisdom" expressed on forums.
"

and yet, people buy lottery tickets, a lot, millions of them blinded by greed, daily.

Sorry OP, 5K options to turn into life changing event for you - you have much better chance of being triple stricken by lighting..

I have been on both sides of pitching the 'life changing', 'mission', 'belief' stories behind very high risk/low actual reward startup stories as well as receiving them many times. I have also seen many of them result to nothing at all - friends do not let friend pitch them startups.. you are much better off holding a stable position and working on your career. if you want to do good, go volunteer, preferably locally there is A LOT of need.
runner3081
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by runner3081 »

Zombies wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:11 pm Of course you shouldn't value it at zero - if they were truly worth zero, no one worth their salt would work at startups. This is a really strange answer that is the "conventional wisdom" expressed on forums.
I valued the equity at zero, but of course, I also value social security at zero as well :)
financialdude
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Re: Equity in startup

Post by financialdude »

It really depends on a few things. How much preferred, what stage are they at, what are the odds of having liquidity events? I work in the startup world and see all the cap tables, it's amazing how many people walk away from options at early stage companies. At Series A startups or before, probably 75% of people don't exercise when they leave. At later stage startups, Series C, Series D, it's much more likely to exercise, but there is a cost for those options and it might not have liquidity. Are you really going to spend $200K on stock options for a company that may or may not succeed, and may or may not have a liquidity event? There are so many unknowns in startups, it's a lot of luck.

If the company isn't Series B or later, then I'd value the amount at -0-. As the company gets later stage, there can be value, but I wouldn't bank on it as it might take 7 years to get it and the company can have so many ratchets/preferred shares that you get very little.

As another poster said, market comp is more important than equity (unless you are a co-founder/early employee).
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