What age do you use for retirement end date?

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mark_in_denver
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What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mark_in_denver » Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm

Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.

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GerryL
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by GerryL » Sun May 10, 2020 9:40 pm

My official financial plan is based on living to 100. Previously I went with 96 just because my oldest grandparent lived to 76 and my parents both lived to 86. I'm 71, and when I compare myself to where my mother was at the same age, I am much healthier, both physically and cognitively.

You may not care about buying things after a certain age, but you could very well have higher costs due to medical bills. Think about retirement as 3 stages: go-go, slow-go and no-go (I think those are the labels I saw.) The middle stage is where your expenses will likely be lowest.

BTW, Social Security does not say you will live to 82. They have no idea how long you, as an individual, will live.

NewbieBogle007
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by NewbieBogle007 » Sun May 10, 2020 9:41 pm

Dr. Anthony Fauci is 79! Why are you being so pessimistic?

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by rob » Sun May 10, 2020 9:42 pm

Yeah I hear ya... I use 80 but it's a WAG like yours. I doubt I will get out of my 70's - I'm hardly a health freak.

I see retirement money needs as a U shape.... Higher at the start with travel, hobbies etc.; Dropping to far lower in middle where it's more sedentary with the odd Xmas/Thanksgiving travel and higher at the end with health-care, assisted living etc. costs.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

clarkdfw
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by clarkdfw » Sun May 10, 2020 9:46 pm

At 50, 75 sounds old. I am 70. My good friend is 77. We both are still working full time and going strong. We are both boaters and spend a lot of time at the lake. At 75 you will still care about income and buying things, trust me.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by SevenBridgesRoad » Sun May 10, 2020 10:06 pm

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
Glad you are thinking about the next phase of your life: freedom to do what you want. Congrats for getting close. I love retirement!

But, you are thinking about end-of-life dangerously. 75 is way too young, for planning purposes. We don't come with a "use by" date, like milk, stamped on our foreheads. I know folks in their mid and late 80's and even early 90's who are well. My dad is mid-80's and still going strong, running his business as if he were 50. So, you can't predict death age accurately. I recommend you look into the Boglehead wiki on the Variable Percentage Withdrawal plan. It's designed so that you will never run out of money, and yet maximize spending each year of life.
Last edited by SevenBridgesRoad on Mon May 11, 2020 12:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Retired 2018 age 61/Variable Percentage Withdrawal method/One fund: VTINX all accounts/No mortgage,debt/Good enough | "Not using an alarm is one of the great glories of my life." Robert Greene

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Teague » Sun May 10, 2020 10:09 pm

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
Social security says I will live to 82.

Actually, they're not saying that. They are saying something like "our estimate upon which we base certain things suggests that the average person, for our purposes, will live to 82." There is great variance about the average, and no way to predict accurately how long you will live, even broadly.
However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things.
But if you want to eat and have a roof over your head, you should indeed care. If you run out of money I think you will care a lot.
For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.
You are incorrectly ascribing a lot of predictive power to what happened to your relatives. Personally, I put "100 years" into those calculators.
Semper Augustus

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by sailaway » Sun May 10, 2020 10:17 pm

The 75yo I know are all enjoying life and the things and experiences that their money can buy.

Of course, I also know a lot of people who died younger, and lots of people whose ages I don't know, but that seems like a young age to not care, as you say.

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Watty
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Watty » Sun May 10, 2020 10:17 pm

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Social security says I will live to 82.
I don't know where you got that number but it is likely an average, if so then half of people would live longer than that. There may also be medical advances which might extend your life.

Your expenses will be different at different ages so you can adjust for that but running out of money when you are in your late 80s could be ugly or could mean that your kids might need to support you.

I recall when I was playing with my retirement numbers when I used different ages that were decades in the future it did not make a lot of difference in things like my safe withdrawal rate or the probability of failure.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by dbr » Sun May 10, 2020 11:35 pm

You don't use an end date (death date). You use a statistical distribution of possible dates. A lot of retirement models use statistical distributions for investment performance and then estimate chances of running out of money after some specific number of years. More probably they should compute probabilities of running out of money and still being alive. The reason that is not done is that different people have different distributions of possible lifetime, which can be estimated (roughly) with enough information about the person.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by HoopDiddyDiddy » Mon May 11, 2020 6:04 am

I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age


Spoken like a true whippersnapper.
If you keep your body in shape your last 20 years can be as vital and fulfilling as your current 20. You will have all the time in the world to follow whatever inspires you and if it's cutting edge tech now it can still be cutting edge tech then.

Retirement planning would be stupidly simple if we knew our death date.
This is one case where you need to be generous in your estimates- I'd go with a minimum of 95..

B4Xt3r
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by B4Xt3r » Mon May 11, 2020 6:05 am

CDC published aggregate data. Individuals are not aggregate data, but it's a starting point.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr ... 07-508.pdf

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by B4Xt3r » Mon May 11, 2020 6:07 am

dbr wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 11:35 pm
You don't use an end date (death date). You use a statistical distribution of possible dates. A lot of retirement models use statistical distributions for investment performance and then estimate chances of running out of money after some specific number of years. More probably they should compute probabilities of running out of money and still being alive. The reason that is not done is that different people have different distributions of possible lifetime, which can be estimated (roughly) with enough information about the person.
Agreed. I built one that additionally uses a statistical distribution of death dates drawn from the CDC data posted above.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by MarkBarb » Mon May 11, 2020 6:10 am

96 for me and 102 for my wife. My father is still active at 93. My wife's grandmother recently passed away at 102.

My assumption is that as my purchases of "fun" stuff start to slow down with age, my spending on medical care and assistance will increase. I just assume constant spending. I'm probably being a bit conservative, but I'd rather be disappointed on the underspending side than the overspending side.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Stoic9 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:25 am

My retirement plan (I retired at 60, 3 years ago) uses 75 (+- 2 years) for me and 90 (+- 4 years) for spouse. We currently live well off our passive income (pension, rents) and haven't touched portfolio, savings, or real estate. We will start SS at 70 to the tune of almost 50K more to passive income. My plan calls for spouse passive income to drop 35% when I die but still be plenty.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by truenorth418 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:38 am

I use 100.

As a safety precaution, better to aim on the high side vs use some statistical average or "what age you did your parents die" approach and maybe run out of money.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by CyclingDuo » Mon May 11, 2020 6:50 am

GerryL wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:40 pm
Think about retirement as 3 stages: go-go, slow-go and no-go (I think those are the labels I saw.) The middle stage is where your expenses will likely be lowest.
Yup. Those are the phases we use to model what ours will potentially be like. It helped us via close observation of our own parents to get an idea of the go-go, slow-go, and no-go years. Just based on how long our parents lived, the age at our end could realistically be in a range of 82-92. I see no reason to spend much time planning beyond that range.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

markcoop
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by markcoop » Mon May 11, 2020 6:54 am

Even though my parents died in their 70s, I plan to stay active well past that point playing tennis, basketball, bike-riding, kayaking, paddle-boarding, roller-blading, hiking and I hope many more activities I haven't even tried yet. Use it or lose it. I personally put down 100 when asked.
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by ncbill » Mon May 11, 2020 7:06 am

95 or 100 is the default age for the retirement calculators I use.

Though one of the above notes I have a 3/4 chance of being dead by age 85, which doesn't exactly surprise me, given:

Mom died early 60s after being bedridden for nearly a decade.

Dad can barely walk at this point and he's just 80.
Last edited by ncbill on Mon May 11, 2020 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.

Mr. Rumples
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Mr. Rumples » Mon May 11, 2020 7:08 am

I use 100 since most people on both sides live to be in their 90's with the exception of two, one of whom smoked. When my aunt died at 89, the comment was "she was so young." One has to be careful about the family though. A neighbor, the oldest of 5, outlived all of his brothers into a ripe old age.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by 4nursebee » Mon May 11, 2020 7:13 am

I consider that a few of our relatives have some longevity and need money to last a while. So when I put another 30 or 40 years of life into Firecalc and see we die with MUCH more money at current spending levels, I don't worry. I'm also willing to loosen the purse strings more now.
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Sheepdog » Mon May 11, 2020 7:20 am

You don't know......diseases, cancers, accidents, you name it . My father died at 58 and my Mom at 92. Averaged out that would be 75. Well, I am 86 and active.....do all yard work, and almost everything else. If i can clear this virus thing, I could reach into my 90s, but I could never guess that at my 50s age.
“One moment of patience may ward off great disaster. One moment of impatience may ruin a whole life.” — Chinese Proverb

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by tennisplyr » Mon May 11, 2020 7:21 am

I'm 70, retired 9 years and not wildly conservative. At my age, expectancy is ~85...for general planning purposes, I use 80-85. This is not about being optimistic or pessimistic, it's about being realistic about the elements of life that are important to me.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by datadatum » Mon May 11, 2020 7:33 am

I use 90 (40 yrs away) as my target age to die broke with fixed assumptions for ROI, inflation, etc.

I use 70 (20 yrs away) as my target age to have >99% probability of a NW above a specific amount using Monte Carlo simulations and scenario planning.

My modeling allows me to update many different variables, and the plan is infinitely adjustable - so I feel well prepared to update it on the fly when my assumptions prove inaccurate.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by RadAudit » Mon May 11, 2020 8:00 am

I think I'll be going fairly quickly - seizures from time to time (but waking up in new and different ERs is always interesting. Waking up is fun, too.). The number I try to figure out is how long DW will live. But, then there are complicating factors. The kids, the grandkids, etc. Right now both sets look as if they'll be needing help long after DW and I are gone. So, I just defaulted to the point where SWRs > RMDs and started really biting into what was left of the portfolio. It's just a guess anyway.
FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The cavalry isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

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teen persuasion
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by teen persuasion » Mon May 11, 2020 8:14 am

I use 105, when they will let me exceed 99.

My maternal great aunt lived to 103. My parents are going strong at nearly 80/90 (in a few weeks/months). They both have older siblings also going strong in nineties. Over Christmas dinner, dad and his older sister were swapping stories about each of them renewing their driver's licenses in the previous month.

There's also the active patrons I (normally) see at my job in the library. We have a favorite avid reader, 100 years and sharp as a tack. We hated telling her we couldn't interloan books for her, when we had to shut down in March.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Pomegranate » Mon May 11, 2020 8:22 am

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.


So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
80. Nobody of my relatives lived longer than that so I'm not going to postpone my retirement trying to accumulate money needed to spend in 90s :sharebeer

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mark_in_denver
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mark_in_denver » Mon May 11, 2020 8:25 am

Ok. I switched firecalc to 35 years. We're fine even keeping spending constant and using GNMA as a portfolio.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Stinky » Mon May 11, 2020 8:30 am

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
If you put 75 into your retirement calculators, you run a huge risk of running out of money many years before your expiration date.

If you're a smoker - if you're morbidly obese - if you're an uncontrolled diabetic - etc., an age of 75 might be appropriate. But for most anyone else, 75 is way too young.

I'm looking at age 100 to be conservative. Mom lived to 90, most of her siblings and my father's siblings lived to late 80s or early 90s.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by reln » Mon May 11, 2020 8:31 am

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
I use age 105 (which is equivalent to reserving at about CTE 99.5%, this is the metric modern risk management uses).

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JoMoney
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by JoMoney » Mon May 11, 2020 8:58 am

When playing around trying to model withdrawals, I usually use the Single Life Table put out by the IRS for use with RMD's, annuities, 72(t) SEPP withdrawals, etc... It does not take sex into account. If that table is not handy, I will roughly estimate as living to age 84.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by stan1 » Mon May 11, 2020 9:09 am

I use 100, based off the fact that multiple family members lived well into their 90s.

Family members who died younger back in the 1960s through 1980s had diseases that today are much more readily treatable or there was an accident that contributed to the death.

I have no chronic conditions at this point that would indicate a shorter life expectancy. One grandmother had dementia but parents and other grandparents did not.

I exercise daily and am at a healthy weight. I have never used tobacco products.

Personally I do not think actuarial tables are of much use to help an individual plan. You need to assess your own personal health, lifestyle, and family history.

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mark_in_denver
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mark_in_denver » Mon May 11, 2020 9:12 am

Stinky wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 8:30 am
mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
If you put 75 into your retirement calculators, you run a huge risk of running out of money many years before your expiration date.

If you're a smoker - if you're morbidly obese - if you're an uncontrolled diabetic - etc., an age of 75 might be appropriate. But for most anyone else, 75 is way too young.

I'm looking at age 100 to be conservative. Mom lived to 90, most of her siblings and my father's siblings lived to late 80s or early 90s.
Hi,
I put in an age of 88 on firecalc. We're still fine. We don't spend more than the pensions, being conservative (meaning spending a lot). The portfolio part continues to grow.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mptfan » Mon May 11, 2020 9:16 am

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there.
That's a pessimistic view. You may be right, but I hope that's not true for me. I do accept your point though that as you age beyond a certain point, say 80, whether you are mentally there or not you generally spend less than when you were younger and more active.

Chris K Jones
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Chris K Jones » Mon May 11, 2020 9:20 am

I use 95. My Mom lived till she was 88. My Dad a few years less. 95 seems like a good, conservative guess for me. I don't want to run out of money or be a burden on my survivors. Best wishes for a long life to you and all.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mptfan » Mon May 11, 2020 9:22 am

truenorth418 wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 6:38 am
As a safety precaution, better to aim on the high side vs use some statistical average or "what age you did your parents die" approach and maybe run out of money.
Yes, but at the same time you should not oversave and deprive yourself when you are young and mentally and physically active for the sake of aiming on the high side of being able to live it up well into your 90's because there is a reasonable chance you may not live to be 95 and all of that extra saving and deprivation when you were 50 would have been for naught. Life is about moderation and balancing competing interests and we all have to make those decisions for ourselves.

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Watty
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Watty » Mon May 11, 2020 9:48 am

I just looked at Firecal with the defaults a 30 year retirement has a 95% success rate.

With a 40 year retirement it shows an 85% success rate.

The default assume spending of $30,000 a year. For a 40 year retirement reducing your spending to $27,500 will bring the success rate back up to about 95%. This is only about an 8% reduction to offset a 33% increase in the length of retirement.

With a 20 year retirement it shows a 100% success rate. You can only increase the spending to be about $36,000 to get back to the success rate

At least for their default scenario the expected length of retirement may not be as important as you might think.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by IMO » Mon May 11, 2020 12:26 pm

mark_in_denver wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 9:12 am
Stinky wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 8:30 am
mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Hello
I'm deciding to retire. I have governerment pension and other income. We will have money but won't be rich rich. I will post more about that later.

The longer I work the more I get per month. Although I'm thinking of retiring, early 50's. I have plenty to do and would like to spend more time with family etc. However what age do you use as your retirement end date. Most people I know project how long they will live. Social security says I will live to 82. However when using the retirement calculators I put in 75. I figure that is around the age I will no longer really care about income and buying things. For example, I doubt I will get much enjoyment purchasing semi expensive things past that age, I hope this makes sense. In other words, mortality will be around the corner. Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there. I saw what aging did to my folks and grandparents. It seems in the 70's they really slowed down. They stopped taking trips, etc. They also started forgetting things.

So I'm just trying to realistically put in dates how long I expect to keep my current spending, so I'm just using 75. This all sounds rather morbid but I just want to be realistic.
If you put 75 into your retirement calculators, you run a huge risk of running out of money many years before your expiration date.

If you're a smoker - if you're morbidly obese - if you're an uncontrolled diabetic - etc., an age of 75 might be appropriate. But for most anyone else, 75 is way too young.

I'm looking at age 100 to be conservative. Mom lived to 90, most of her siblings and my father's siblings lived to late 80s or early 90s.
Hi,
I put in an age of 88 on firecalc. We're still fine. We don't spend more than the pensions, being conservative (meaning spending a lot). The portfolio part continues to grow.
I see most people with pensions as being "rich" in a certain sense, mostly in that many people fail to see the equivalent financial value that having a pension provides.

I'm confused, you're apparently spending a lot and even that is less than your pensions. Bigger question to me, are your pensions secure? Have you factored in some social security into your equation?

What are your mandatory expenses and your discretionary expenses vs. your pensions? What do expect to change (up / down) in the future (such as healthcare expenses, mortgage/housing expenses, travel/other, long term care, etc)?

I looked at it more of "if one of use dies in the next 5 yrs, 10 yrs, 15 yrs, 20 yrs, 30 yrs, 40 years, etc., what would the financial situation look like for the other person?"

Some people when planning for retirement act like they will be the young healthy 40 year old they are for the rest of their living years. Maybe, but maybe not. Deciding when to pull the plug on work is very personal and a complex decision.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by cshell2 » Mon May 11, 2020 12:37 pm

I use 100. My great grandma lived to 101, grandma 97. My mom is currently in her mid-70's and traveling the world constantly. My neighbor lady just passed away in her sleep this January at 94. Last Fall she was still out mowing her 4 acres of land and chasing coyotes off my property with a shotgun. LOL

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by rkhusky » Mon May 11, 2020 12:45 pm

When looking at average lifespan, you want to look for something like, “What’s the average lifespan for someone who’s reached 50 years of age?” That eliminates from the average all those who died young. Then you decide if you are healthier than the average person or not, and whether your genetics are better or worse than the average person.

If you are low 50’s, look to see if retiring in the year you turn 55 or later would be beneficial. It allows you to withdraw from your 401k before age 59.5 without penalty (just taxes).

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by ValuationsMatter » Mon May 11, 2020 1:44 pm

My first stab at this, though I really haven't given tremendous thought, is that I'm working toward a government pension that I hope will carry me through comfortably enough if I happen to outlive expectation. I would probably look at life expectancy actuarial tables to get an idea to start with. Then, I'd take a look at my family history. I would try to estimate somewhere between 80-90th percentile, and then try to spend my money by that age with the pension to fall back on if I outlive it.

It's also entirely possible that I may be wealthy enough to support my desired lifestyle without ever dipping into my principle. I see no need in being wasteful. I don't think too much more happiness comes from needless extravagance, but maybe I'll feel differently in 30-40 years.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by rich126 » Mon May 11, 2020 1:58 pm

Unless you know the future, it is impossible. If you use 100, well, the reality is that few actually make it that far and you will leave a lot of money unspent. If you use 80, well, you might run out of money.

My friend, sadly passed away at 58. He managed to enjoy about 2 years of retirement. That certainly is a more extreme case on the low side, but it does happen.

More importantly, make sure you have beneficiaries, wills, etc. documents set up before it is too late. Many people never do and it makes for a messy situation after death.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by goodenyou » Mon May 11, 2020 2:07 pm

Moshe Milevsky has written a lot about BIOLOGIC age and retirement. Several articles. Maybe we will all need telomere testing for Social Security and Annuities. It's not all about how may times you have circled the sun.


Forget Your Real Age, Plan Your Retirement Around Your ‘Biological Age’


https://www.barrons.com/articles/retire ... 1548356662


Retirement Spending and Biological Age


H.Huanga,M.A.Milevskyb,c,∗,T.S.Salisbury

https://moshemilevsky.com/wp-content/up ... icle_1.pdf
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by larsm » Mon May 11, 2020 3:13 pm

Only certainty on this topic is that the second you are born you're working your way to death. The event horizon is recalculate every second you're alive...

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by mptfan » Mon May 11, 2020 3:35 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 12:45 pm
When looking at average lifespan, you want to look for something like, “What’s the average lifespan for someone who’s reached 50 years of age?” That eliminates from the average all those who died young. Then you decide if you are healthier than the average person or not, and whether your genetics are better or worse than the average person.
Agreed.

A man turning age 65 on April 1, 2020 can expect to live, on average, until age 84.0.
A woman turning age 65 on April 1, 2020 can expect to live, on average, until age 86.5.
And those are just averages. About one out of every three 65-year-olds today will live at least to age 90, and about one out of seven will live at least to age 95.

https://www.ssa.gov/planners/lifeexpectancy.html

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Doctor Rhythm » Mon May 11, 2020 6:23 pm

I mainly came here to say "Ending Retirement" is a great euphemism.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by abuss368 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:24 pm

I go to 100 and have seen this with some of Vanguard's education material.
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon May 11, 2020 6:39 pm

mark_in_denver wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:30 pm
Even if I live to age 82, I probably won't be mentally there.
Certainly look at your ancestors. When did they die? Will you need $15k a month nursing home care?

Not all 82 year olds are mentally gone. Paul Newman won the GT-1 class at Lime Rock in a racecar at 82. I have 2 major medical conditions that have me setting my end date at 85 years old. I doubt I'll get there, but I can try.
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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by vitaflo » Mon May 11, 2020 6:41 pm

90, but I highly doubt I’ll live that long so I question why I use it.

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Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Post by cowdogman » Mon May 11, 2020 7:04 pm

I never thought I would make it to 60, but I did. And I think I can do it one more time. So, 120.

Just kidding.

The spreadsheet I use approaches the issue another way. It goes to 115, but tells me, under different scenarios, when I run out of money. It gets at the same point but doesn't ask me to pick an age--and is not as depressing.

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