College in fall

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Sat May 30, 2020 11:44 am

stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:29 am
The CDC has been very clear that there are serious concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests. So much so, that they are very adamant that they should not be used to influence policy. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns- ... 020-05-27/.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/a ... index.html

I'm not "denying science", I'm a scientist myself, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to trust anybody's data at this point.
Yes, but the main thrust of their objections is not so much with the tests accuracy (they aren't good enough on an individual level in a low prevalence situation, but good enough epidemiologically, with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity) as it is with whether the presence of antibodies tells us anything about individual's immunity.

But whether or not presence of antibodies has effect on immunity, there is little disagreement that it signifies past infection, and is therefore useful in determining IFR.

The NPR article I linked above cites such experts as Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nir Menachemi, chair of the health policy and management department at Indiana University's School of Public Health, and yes, Dr. Fauci's editorial in The New England Journal of Medicine, all estimating COVID-19 IFR in the sub-1% range.

But as I indicated in my earlier response, even at 0.6% IFR a 50% infection rate would lead to a million deaths. So no one is exactly being pollyannaish here.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat May 30, 2020 11:53 am

SimonJester wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:45 am
smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
"But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online"

This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
That is not going to work as most schools allow you to withdraw from classes upto the census date which is several weeks after the start of school. My kids can get their entire tuition refunded upto the census date. Both has said they will withdraw if classes are online only.
Many students certainly will withdraw at any point that classes are announced to be online. But by keeping students under the belief that classes will be held face-to-face, the schools will be able to keep many others from making alternative plans for the fall (or the entire academic year) so that if/when classes are announced to be online, very possibly at the last minute, these students will be more likely to stay enrolled.

To be completely frank, I think that it's also quite likely that many, maybe even most, universities that do start with face-to-face instruction in August or September will be forced to either move online or cut their semester/quarter short due to the high likelihood of another outbreak late in the fall.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat May 30, 2020 11:57 am

smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
Perhaps, but if these universities can blame their state's authorities for forcing them to move online, they will have plausible deniability.

The bottom line is that in the current environment at least, universities are in a zero sum game, and if they have to 'bend' the truth in order to survive, many of them will. It's no different from corporations, government, etc.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Sat May 30, 2020 12:13 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:57 am
smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
Perhaps, but if these universities can blame their state's authorities for forcing them to move online, they will have plausible deniability.

The bottom line is that in the current environment at least, universities are in a zero sum game, and if they have to 'bend' the truth in order to survive, many of them will. It's no different from corporations, government, etc.
The speed and certainty with which universities announce their intention to reopen campuses appear to be in inverse proportion to the strength of their financial position.
Last edited by Vulcan on Sat May 30, 2020 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

smitcat
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Re: College in fall

Post by smitcat » Sat May 30, 2020 12:14 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:57 am
smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
Perhaps, but if these universities can blame their state's authorities for forcing them to move online, they will have plausible deniability.

The bottom line is that in the current environment at least, universities are in a zero sum game, and if they have to 'bend' the truth in order to survive, many of them will. It's no different from corporations, government, etc.
I do not doubt that they are doing this as I hear the same things here.
I am just pointing out that this will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.

oldfort
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Re: College in fall

Post by oldfort » Sat May 30, 2020 2:06 pm

Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:44 am
stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:29 am
The CDC has been very clear that there are serious concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests. So much so, that they are very adamant that they should not be used to influence policy. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns- ... 020-05-27/.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/a ... index.html

I'm not "denying science", I'm a scientist myself, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to trust anybody's data at this point.
Yes, but the main thrust of their objections is not so much with the tests accuracy (they aren't good enough on an individual level in a low prevalence situation, but good enough epidemiologically, with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity) as it is with whether the presence of antibodies tells us anything about individual's immunity.

But whether or not presence of antibodies has effect on immunity, there is little disagreement that it signifies past infection, and is therefore useful in determining IFR.

The NPR article I linked above cites such experts as Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nir Menachemi, chair of the health policy and management department at Indiana University's School of Public Health, and yes, Dr. Fauci's editorial in The New England Journal of Medicine, all estimating COVID-19 IFR in the sub-1% range.

But as I indicated in my earlier response, even at 0.6% IFR a 50% infection rate would lead to a million deaths. So no one is exactly being pollyannaish here.
The CDC's estimate is 0.26% IFR.

OldBallCoach
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Re: College in fall

Post by OldBallCoach » Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm

Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 30, 2020 3:34 pm

oldfort wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 2:06 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:44 am
stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:29 am
The CDC has been very clear that there are serious concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests. So much so, that they are very adamant that they should not be used to influence policy. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns- ... 020-05-27/.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/a ... index.html

I'm not "denying science", I'm a scientist myself, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to trust anybody's data at this point.
Yes, but the main thrust of their objections is not so much with the tests accuracy (they aren't good enough on an individual level in a low prevalence situation, but good enough epidemiologically, with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity) as it is with whether the presence of antibodies tells us anything about individual's immunity.

But whether or not presence of antibodies has effect on immunity, there is little disagreement that it signifies past infection, and is therefore useful in determining IFR.

The NPR article I linked above cites such experts as Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Nir Menachemi, chair of the health policy and management department at Indiana University's School of Public Health, and yes, Dr. Fauci's editorial in The New England Journal of Medicine, all estimating COVID-19 IFR in the sub-1% range.

But as I indicated in my earlier response, even at 0.6% IFR a 50% infection rate would lead to a million deaths. So no one is exactly being pollyannaish here.
The CDC's estimate is 0.26% IFR.
Yup https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs- ... below-0-3/ . If you are convinced that your understanding of the data is accurate, just wait, it will be completely different come tomorrow.

retired recently
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Re: College in fall

Post by retired recently » Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm

OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.

OldBallCoach
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Re: College in fall

Post by OldBallCoach » Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:01 am

retired recently wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.
The point I was trying to make is that most colleges are terrified of lossing students to cheaper non on campus options...I think many schools are very fragile from a finacial standpoint..I know that the main reason for pushing football this fall is money...its not about the health of the players or staff its the money, plain and simple. Go to Alabama and tell me they are worried about the kids health more than seeing the Crimson Tide play on Saturdays...I would be fine with a year off...I have plenty of money...the other 350 people in the program I am not sure sure about...its about the money...not health, not safety...I love my job but no enough to die for it.

ncbill
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Re: College in fall

Post by ncbill » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am

OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am

ncbill wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.
Most of the universities in our state (Utah) have announced they will be on campus in the fall. Unfortunately (yes, IMO, it is unfortunate) our public schools are saying it will likely be at least partially at home.

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am

Personally, I'm glad that most schools seem to be planning to have kids come back and to be done classes by Thanksgiving. My daughter is ready to go back and, like i said before, I don't care at all about saving money for her to be on-line again. I'm ready to pay the full amount so she can continue with at least a modified on-campus experience. That's why we saved the money in the first place. I would assume the large majority of kids are anxious to get back on campus to take classes, see their friends, etc. My daughter's state is pretty much fully open any way (Tennessee). I'm looking forward to a few trips down to see her in the Fall.

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Re: College in fall

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:10 am

OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College.
There is a very high chance that my Community College son will be taking a Gap Year, the way things are going. Online did not work at all for him and classes where he had a solid B average in person nose dived to a D at final reporting time. We're not willing to even pay the peanuts cost for Community College with a proven record for our son that it doesn't work for him. He's looking for jobs right now with an expectation that he'll be able to stay with the job for at least a year.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

HereToLearn
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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:30 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:53 am
SimonJester wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:45 am
smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
"But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online"

This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
That is not going to work as most schools allow you to withdraw from classes upto the census date which is several weeks after the start of school. My kids can get their entire tuition refunded upto the census date. Both has said they will withdraw if classes are online only.
Many students certainly will withdraw at any point that classes are announced to be online. But by keeping students under the belief that classes will be held face-to-face, the schools will be able to keep many others from making alternative plans for the fall (or the entire academic year) so that if/when classes are announced to be online, very possibly at the last minute, these students will be more likely to stay enrolled.

To be completely frank, I think that it's also quite likely that many, maybe even most, universities that do start with face-to-face instruction in August or September will be forced to either move online or cut their semester/quarter short due to the high likelihood of another outbreak late in the fall.
I agree with you here.

With respect to students electing to defer or take a gap year...colleges that have already addressed the subject have said they will allow anyone to take a gap year but there is no guarantee of housing upon return. More important for campuses with strong residential life/houses/colleges.

HereToLearn
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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm

OldBallCoach wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:01 am
retired recently wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.
The point I was trying to make is that most colleges are terrified of lossing students to cheaper non on campus options...I think many schools are very fragile from a finacial standpoint..I know that the main reason for pushing football this fall is money...its not about the health of the players or staff its the money, plain and simple. Go to Alabama and tell me they are worried about the kids health more than seeing the Crimson Tide play on Saturdays...I would be fine with a year off...I have plenty of money...the other 350 people in the program I am not sure sure about...its about the money...not health, not safety...I love my job but no enough to die for it.
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.

Katietsu
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Re: College in fall

Post by Katietsu » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:34 pm

MDfan wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am
I'm looking forward to a few trips down to see her in the Fall.
Our large local college town University will be opening. However, they are asking students to agree not travel or have out of town visitors. They will be combining this with testing of every returning student, faculty and staff member and all the common sense social distancing mask wearing buffet banning requirements.

I hope they can create the cocoon they are counting on. The students who remained on campus this Spring did not do a very good job with distancing. Second only to the nursing homes in spread.

HereToLearn
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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:41 pm

Katietsu wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:34 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am
I'm looking forward to a few trips down to see her in the Fall.
Our large local college town University will be opening. However, they are asking students to agree not travel or have out of town visitors. They will be combining this with testing of every returning student, faculty and staff member and all the common sense social distancing mask wearing buffet banning requirements.

I hope they can create the cocoon they are counting on. The students who remained on campus this Spring did not do a very good job with distancing. Second only to the nursing homes in spread.
I have also heard that parents' weekend will be cancelled. I have not heard about no visitors on campus, but have seen requests to only have one person accompany the student for move-in.

I have wondered about seniors who remained in off-campus housing. UCSD has tested 5000 students who remained on campus (international students who could not return is my guess) and apparently none have tested + for CV-19. That seems highly unlikely...causing one to question these tests since the same test will be administered to students returning this fall.

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 am

HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:01 am
retired recently wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.
The point I was trying to make is that most colleges are terrified of lossing students to cheaper non on campus options...I think many schools are very fragile from a finacial standpoint..I know that the main reason for pushing football this fall is money...its not about the health of the players or staff its the money, plain and simple. Go to Alabama and tell me they are worried about the kids health more than seeing the Crimson Tide play on Saturdays...I would be fine with a year off...I have plenty of money...the other 350 people in the program I am not sure sure about...its about the money...not health, not safety...I love my job but no enough to die for it.
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.
It's actually already getting ugly. Rampant layoffs and furloughs are very quickly coming to higher ed.

State support is dropping significantly, and tuition dollars will as well. Combine that with the coming demographic bomb, and it's a recipe for disaster. The smell is already wafting.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

HereToLearn
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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:49 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 am
HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:01 am
retired recently wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.
The point I was trying to make is that most colleges are terrified of lossing students to cheaper non on campus options...I think many schools are very fragile from a finacial standpoint..I know that the main reason for pushing football this fall is money...its not about the health of the players or staff its the money, plain and simple. Go to Alabama and tell me they are worried about the kids health more than seeing the Crimson Tide play on Saturdays...I would be fine with a year off...I have plenty of money...the other 350 people in the program I am not sure sure about...its about the money...not health, not safety...I love my job but no enough to die for it.
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.
It's actually already getting ugly. Rampant layoffs and furloughs are very quickly coming to higher ed.

State support is dropping significantly, and tuition dollars will as well. Combine that with the coming demographic bomb, and it's a recipe for disaster. The smell is already wafting.
Agree. I have been following announcements closely, attempting to read the tea leaves for the future of fully-funded PHD students. I recognize that the impacts are far more significant than my child's possible PHD.

To be honest, since I first started looking at higher ed ten years ago, I have not understood how so many colleges have remained in business.

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:07 am

Katietsu wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:34 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am
I'm looking forward to a few trips down to see her in the Fall.
Our large local college town University will be opening. However, they are asking students to agree not travel or have out of town visitors. They will be combining this with testing of every returning student, faculty and staff member and all the common sense social distancing mask wearing buffet banning requirements.

I hope they can create the cocoon they are counting on. The students who remained on campus this Spring did not do a very good job with distancing. Second only to the nursing homes in spread.
I mean, they can ask that but it's not going to happen. 18-22 year old kids are going to socialize, not wear masks, and sometimes make poor decisions.
No matter how many rules the school puts in place. If you're bringing kids back on campus, you're basically conceding that a bunch of kids are going to get the virus if it comes back in the Fall. No real way to prevent it. And If schools are open, I don't see a problem with going to visit as long as you're still following all the proper precautions to protect yourself and others

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Re: College in fall

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:36 am

I wonder how this will affect “hookup culture.” I don’t foresee great success in schools trying to enforce social distancing. I’m glad that college students are typically on the lower end of the risk spectrum.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:49 am

HereToLearn wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:49 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 am
HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm
OldBallCoach wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:01 am
retired recently wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 5:11 pm


If you are tying the greatness of the country to the presence of sports in college then what other countries do you think both have sports in the college in the first place and if they do, will in fact be playing all of those sports this year? Perhaps I am misunderstanding your complaint though...I like college sports but would be fine if most of the sporting activity goes away for some time until all this is over. I am more interested in continuing the learning at the colleges.
The point I was trying to make is that most colleges are terrified of lossing students to cheaper non on campus options...I think many schools are very fragile from a finacial standpoint..I know that the main reason for pushing football this fall is money...its not about the health of the players or staff its the money, plain and simple. Go to Alabama and tell me they are worried about the kids health more than seeing the Crimson Tide play on Saturdays...I would be fine with a year off...I have plenty of money...the other 350 people in the program I am not sure sure about...its about the money...not health, not safety...I love my job but no enough to die for it.
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.
It's actually already getting ugly. Rampant layoffs and furloughs are very quickly coming to higher ed.

State support is dropping significantly, and tuition dollars will as well. Combine that with the coming demographic bomb, and it's a recipe for disaster. The smell is already wafting.
Agree. I have been following announcements closely, attempting to read the tea leaves for the future of fully-funded PHD students. I recognize that the impacts are far more significant than my child's possible PHD.

To be honest, since I first started looking at higher ed ten years ago, I have not understood how so many colleges have remained in business.
In my own field, universities around the country and some outside the country would typically be announcing open professor and lecturer positions that they would begin interviewing for at the end of the summer, followed by campus visits in the fall, extending job offers shortly thereafter. As of this time of year, about 8-12 would be posted per week in my discipline. That has fallen to an abysmal 2-3, and most of those are outside the U.S. Universities around the country already have a hiring freeze in place, and positions that are vacated for whatever reason are very unlikely to be filled unless the need is extreme.

The impact of the aforementioned forces on higher ed will be much worse than that of the GFC.

Newly minted Ph.D.s are up the creek without a paddle for this year and almost certainly next year as well; very few will find tenure-track positions, and those who can get a post-doc or visiting professor position will count themselves lucky. The next five years will be very rough, and the only real hope for those trying to get into higher ed is that (1) there will be a significant exodus of Baby Boomer professors and (2) demand for higher ed rebounds quickly after the threat of the Coronavirus is dispelled.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: College in fall

Post by Katietsu » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:02 pm

MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:07 am

I mean, they can ask that but it's not going to happen. 18-22 year old kids are going to socialize, not wear masks, and sometimes make poor decisions.
No matter how many rules the school puts in place. If you're bringing kids back on campus, you're basically conceding that a bunch of kids are going to get the virus if it comes back in the Fall. No real way to prevent it. And If schools are open, I don't see a problem with going to visit as long as you're still following all the proper precautions to protect yourself and others
I suspect all involved are aware of how well the 18-22 year olds will social distance. That is why they are trying to create a relatively closed community of people who are all tested to enter. I am concerned enough that we are trying to predict how many weeks it will be before unknown community spread puts us most at risk and are considering time off then. While the traditional college students have a good chance of getting over it with minimal fuss, the faculty, staff and greater community maybe not so much. The faculty is also asked not to travel or to quarantine if they do, not to invite speakers or colleagues from other institutions to campus, etc. Hopefully, we can avoid the worst case this way at least.

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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:23 pm

I understand. But you'll have kids who commute to school who will be going home every night, kids who live locally who will go home on weekends, and parents who will want to come and see their kids. Once the decisions are made to bring kids back on campus, and it looks like those decisions have been made at most schools, you pretty much just have to keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. It's not ideal, but it's the reality of the situation. Where my daughter goes to school in the South, they've pretty much already decided this thing is over. Bars, restaurants and pretty much everything else is open.

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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:36 pm

I am hoping that the early presence of athletes on campus this summer will provide a useful control group. I don't know if these five Alabama players who tested + have been living among their teammates and/or participating in the captains' unofficial practices. If they have, I would like to hope that all players have been retested. This article does not address those specifics.


https://www.si.com/college/alabama/bama ... rkA0R9iB8o

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Re: College in fall

Post by HereToLearn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:38 pm

MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:23 pm
I understand. But you'll have kids who commute to school who will be going home every night, kids who live locally who will go home on weekends, and parents who will want to come and see their kids. Once the decisions are made to bring kids back on campus, and it looks like those decisions have been made at most schools, you pretty much just have to keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. It's not ideal, but it's the reality of the situation. Where my daughter goes to school in the South, they've pretty much already decided this thing is over. Bars, restaurants and pretty much everything else is open.
While many colleges have communicated their 'hope' to have students back on campus living in dorms, I think many have still reserved judgment, using the language 'if residential life resumes', at least in the northeast.

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Re: College in fall

Post by Mudpuppy » Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:35 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 am
HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.
It's actually already getting ugly. Rampant layoffs and furloughs are very quickly coming to higher ed.

State support is dropping significantly, and tuition dollars will as well. Combine that with the coming demographic bomb, and it's a recipe for disaster. The smell is already wafting.
I think the impact on public universities will be far different than the impact on private universities, both in the short-term and long-term. Public universities are unlikely to disappear, but they can reorganize (merge main campuses, eliminate satellite campuses, etc.). Depending on how well they reorganize, that could have lasting effects. Quite a few of the private universities that have always existed on the financial margin are likely to be pushed far enough into a deficit to fold entirely. The ones with healthier endowments and private fundraising are still going to have to shrink their expenses given the current economic uncertainty and revenue impacts due to the pandemic.

For both sectors, the ones not thinking about reorganization or cutting expenses, and instead relying on reserves, are probably going to have a harder time than the ones who are making the hard choices now. With the exception of a few, the reserve funds are unlikely to be healthy enough to make up for all the revenue loss in the long-term. By trying to delay the hard decisions, they'll just make the hard decisions even worse when the reserve fund dries up.

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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm

HereToLearn wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:38 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:23 pm
I understand. But you'll have kids who commute to school who will be going home every night, kids who live locally who will go home on weekends, and parents who will want to come and see their kids. Once the decisions are made to bring kids back on campus, and it looks like those decisions have been made at most schools, you pretty much just have to keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. It's not ideal, but it's the reality of the situation. Where my daughter goes to school in the South, they've pretty much already decided this thing is over. Bars, restaurants and pretty much everything else is open.
While many colleges have communicated their 'hope' to have students back on campus living in dorms, I think many have still reserved judgment, using the language 'if residential life resumes', at least in the northeast.
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.

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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:14 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:35 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:15 am
HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:34 pm
Yes, far too many colleges are reopening so as to remain in business. The spring term losses that resulted from R&B refunds, the loss of summer conference revenue, and the loss of fall sports-related revenue are more than many colleges can sustain. Add in the loss of full-pay international students, and a decline in the # of students willing to pay OOS tuition to travel far from home + the state funding cutbacks that are bound to occur due to state's depressed tax coffers...it will not be pretty.
It's actually already getting ugly. Rampant layoffs and furloughs are very quickly coming to higher ed.

State support is dropping significantly, and tuition dollars will as well. Combine that with the coming demographic bomb, and it's a recipe for disaster. The smell is already wafting.
I think the impact on public universities will be far different than the impact on private universities, both in the short-term and long-term. Public universities are unlikely to disappear, but they can reorganize (merge main campuses, eliminate satellite campuses, etc.). Depending on how well they reorganize, that could have lasting effects. Quite a few of the private universities that have always existed on the financial margin are likely to be pushed far enough into a deficit to fold entirely. The ones with healthier endowments and private fundraising are still going to have to shrink their expenses given the current economic uncertainty and revenue impacts due to the pandemic.

For both sectors, the ones not thinking about reorganization or cutting expenses, and instead relying on reserves, are probably going to have a harder time than the ones who are making the hard choices now. With the exception of a few, the reserve funds are unlikely to be healthy enough to make up for all the revenue loss in the long-term. By trying to delay the hard decisions, they'll just make the hard decisions even worse when the reserve fund dries up.
I agree that there will definitely be big difference in the effects on public and private universities. Many for-profit universities will fold in the next 12-24 months; many did before all of the current chaos began. And I agree that most public universities will not disappear. But there may be some consolidation of some public universities, and there are very likely to be significant staff and faculty reductions at many of them.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm

MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.
Is the concern at your friend's university that going online will result in significantly lower enrollments, or do they charge lower tuition for online courses?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:21 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.
Is the concern at your friend's university that going online will result in significantly lower enrollments, or do they charge lower tuition for online courses?
Does anybody (currently) charge lower tuition for online courses? All the universities I am intimately familiar with don't.

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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:24 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.
Is the concern at your friend's university that going online will result in significantly lower enrollments, or do they charge lower tuition for online courses?
Does anybody (currently) charge lower tuition for online courses? All the universities I am intimately familiar with don't.
I don't know of any. If there's any difference between the two, all of the ones I've seen charge more for online, although they waived the difference this spring and will do so in the fall at least as well.

I think that the concern from MDfan's friend's university is that online courses will result in a precipitous drop in their enrollment; tuition dollars have become a much bigger part of most public universities' revenue over the last ~10 years as most states have backed down their support. Also, courses being online means that the universities aren't bringing in revenue for housing, food, books, etc. Even at modestly sized universities, these can represent many millions of dollars of annual revenue. Many staff associated with these areas have been or will shortly be laid off or at least furloughed.

At many small and even some mid-sized public universities, athletics will suffer greatly from all of this as well.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: College in fall

Post by bryansmile » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:31 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:21 pm

Does anybody (currently) charge lower tuition for online courses? All the universities I am intimately familiar with don't.
I know OSU charges instate tuition for online courses this summer only. Note they are remote learning courses even before the pandemic, and used to have much higher tuition rates for OOS students.
Last edited by bryansmile on Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:33 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.
Is the concern at your friend's university that going online will result in significantly lower enrollments, or do they charge lower tuition for online courses?
I know they had to pay out an enormous amount in refunds for room and board in the Spring. I'm sure there's a concern over both of the things you mentioned as well.

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Re: College in fall

Post by cshell2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:34 pm

University of Minnesota president just recommended returning to campus this Fall with the plan to either be done by Thanksgiving or to transition to online at that point for the last couple weeks and final exams. The board meets next week to discuss and a decision is expected shortly after.

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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:46 pm

HereToLearn wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:30 pm
With respect to students electing to defer or take a gap year...colleges that have already addressed the subject have said they will allow anyone to take a gap year but there is no guarantee of housing upon return. More important for campuses with strong residential life/houses/colleges.
Some even said there is no guarantee of being able to return to classes at the time of your choosing.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

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Re: College in fall

Post by getthatmarshmallow » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:50 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am
ncbill wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.
Most of the universities in our state (Utah) have announced they will be on campus in the fall. Unfortunately (yes, IMO, it is unfortunate) our public schools are saying it will likely be at least partially at home.
The headlines have said this. No decisions have formally been made, other than a vague "some classes will be in person maybe?", which isn't the same as "back to normal." We're anticipating that many classes will be online if they can, to minimize the chance of hosting an outbreak.

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Re: College in fall

Post by cshell2 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:58 pm

getthatmarshmallow wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:50 pm
stoptothink wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am
ncbill wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.
Most of the universities in our state (Utah) have announced they will be on campus in the fall. Unfortunately (yes, IMO, it is unfortunate) our public schools are saying it will likely be at least partially at home.
The headlines have said this. No decisions have formally been made, other than a vague "some classes will be in person maybe?", which isn't the same as "back to normal." We're anticipating that many classes will be online if they can, to minimize the chance of hosting an outbreak.

My son registered yesterday. His Chemistry lecture is 100% online with the lab in person. The rest appear "normal", but they said the plan was to thin the classes to keep it under the state gatherings limit (currently 50) by adding more sections during evenings and Saturdays and having a hybrid approach for others.

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Re: College in fall

Post by getthatmarshmallow » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:03 pm

cshell2 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:58 pm
getthatmarshmallow wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:50 pm
stoptothink wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am
ncbill wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.
Most of the universities in our state (Utah) have announced they will be on campus in the fall. Unfortunately (yes, IMO, it is unfortunate) our public schools are saying it will likely be at least partially at home.
The headlines have said this. No decisions have formally been made, other than a vague "some classes will be in person maybe?", which isn't the same as "back to normal." We're anticipating that many classes will be online if they can, to minimize the chance of hosting an outbreak.

My son registered yesterday. His Chemistry lecture is 100% online with the lab in person. The rest appear "normal", but they said the plan was to thin the classes to keep it under the state gatherings limit (currently 50) by adding more sections during evenings and Saturdays and having a hybrid approach for others.
Labs are one area that will be in person if at all possible. The classes I'm slated to teach are still listed as F2F but I suspect they'll be virtual to some extent. My point is just that we're all still in the planning phase, with lots of options being kicked around, and so much depends on whether the state goes green or purple or whatever color we come up with when we make a new action plan.

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Re: College in fall

Post by Katietsu » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:11 pm

MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:23 pm
I understand. But you'll have kids who commute to school who will be going home every night, kids who live locally who will go home on weekends, and parents who will want to come and see their kids. Once the decisions are made to bring kids back on campus, and it looks like those decisions have been made at most schools, you pretty much just have to keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. It's not ideal, but it's the reality of the situation. Where my daughter goes to school in the South, they've pretty much already decided this thing is over. Bars, restaurants and pretty much everything else is open.
Agreed. Hence, the County Health Department requires anyone visiting for more than 24 hours to quarantine. Any resident who leaves for more than 24 hours is to quarantine on return. Will you have full compliance? Of course not. I guess we just need to wait and see if it moves the needle. FYI, as you may already know, both the absolute number of cases and the positivity rate (ie the former is not an artifact of more testing) have been increasing in TN.

I guess predicting the path into fall is like trying to time the markets...

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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:26 pm

Katietsu wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:11 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:23 pm
I understand. But you'll have kids who commute to school who will be going home every night, kids who live locally who will go home on weekends, and parents who will want to come and see their kids. Once the decisions are made to bring kids back on campus, and it looks like those decisions have been made at most schools, you pretty much just have to keep your fingers crossed and hope for the best. It's not ideal, but it's the reality of the situation. Where my daughter goes to school in the South, they've pretty much already decided this thing is over. Bars, restaurants and pretty much everything else is open.
Agreed. Hence, the County Health Department requires anyone visiting for more than 24 hours to quarantine. Any resident who leaves for more than 24 hours is to quarantine on return. Will you have full compliance? Of course not. I guess we just need to wait and see if it moves the needle. FYI, as you may already know, both the absolute number of cases and the positivity rate (ie the former is not an artifact of more testing) have been increasing in TN.

I guess predicting the path into fall is like trying to time the markets...
Thought I read that the increase in cases n TN is mostly due to an outbreak at a prison.

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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:45 pm

cshell2 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:58 pm
getthatmarshmallow wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:50 pm
stoptothink wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am
ncbill wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am
OldBallCoach wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 3:30 pm
Trust me when I tell you this there are four words that EVERY college President is terrified of...are you ready?...You sure? Gap Year and Community College. Where I work all students will be on campus to start and will be tested. The plan is to send them home by Thanksgiving and then who knows whats up for the next semester. I think based on NCAA models most D1 schools will play football in stadiums that are either 20% full at most or empty. D2 and D3 might not even play this year. The haves will be fine...the have nots will be gone from athletics by 2021-2022 school year. That will leave a bigger piece of the pie for the haves. Is this a great country or what?
sounds like a plan...but what happens when students start getting sick during September/October...and a few die?

given that liability I'm skeptical of campuses reopening this fall...hopefully they'll be able to blame the government as another poster said.

selfish of me...I save ~$1,000/month in room/board (tuition/fees covered by scholarship) if my kid keeps attending online.
Most of the universities in our state (Utah) have announced they will be on campus in the fall. Unfortunately (yes, IMO, it is unfortunate) our public schools are saying it will likely be at least partially at home.
The headlines have said this. No decisions have formally been made, other than a vague "some classes will be in person maybe?", which isn't the same as "back to normal." We're anticipating that many classes will be online if they can, to minimize the chance of hosting an outbreak.

My son registered yesterday. His Chemistry lecture is 100% online with the lab in person. The rest appear "normal", but they said the plan was to thin the classes to keep it under the state gatherings limit (currently 50) by adding more sections during evenings and Saturdays and having a hybrid approach for others.
My wife is a student at one Utah university, my uncle is a professor at another (and 2 of his kids are students), another uncle is a professor at another, and I have a cousin starting this fall at a 4th. From what I have gathered from them, it appears things are mostly expected to be somewhat normal, but I guess they are still in the air. I (along with 3 of my work colleagues) was supposed to be teaching (for me, a single class) in a new program that was opening up this fall at the same university my wife attends; that program has been put on hold, possibly indefinitely.

Mudpuppy
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Re: College in fall

Post by Mudpuppy » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:50 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:15 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:03 pm
Too much money to be lost if they don't go back. I have a friend who is in the President's office at a large mid-Atlantic school and he said they're hemorrhaging money and things will be pretty dire if they have to go on-line in the Fall. My guess is, unless there's some unforeseen second wave before August, they're pretty much all going back.
Is the concern at your friend's university that going online will result in significantly lower enrollments, or do they charge lower tuition for online courses?
The public universities close to me have reported lower enrollments this upcoming Fall than the prior Fall. What the news reports haven't clarified is how the enrollment compares to the trend over the past 5-10 years. I seem to recall news reports of record enrollments in the prior Fall, so the news report with just that comparison is only moderately useful to gauging the true impact of the pandemic.

MathIsMyWayr
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Re: College in fall

Post by MathIsMyWayr » Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:44 am

Monsterflockster wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:58 am
My advice and what many families are doing: deferring admittance for a semester/year and going to the local Junior College to start.

Why pay for a non-refundable room & meal plan if they’re at home anyway? JV classes will be online and save you a lot of money.

As for transferring credits... look into it but to most universities they transfer. I have seen students transfer to Cal, Stanford, Ivy Leagues, etc. from a JC. It is much easier in state as many have to accepted all credits is an AA is earned but if you transfer early still only one or two classes may not be accepted due to the way the course is strictured. I have never heard of a school not accepting any of thevtransfer credits.

One family I know hadbtheir child go to JC then transfer to CAL then to Stanford med school. The money they saved on those two years was upwards of 120k.

I’d look into it. Definitely worth the option.
Some students are known to be able to transfer to elite colleges from JV, but I have never heard of a case in which some one deferred enrollment, enrolled in other college and went back to the the original college. Any wrong move, your acceptance may be rescinded.

MathIsMyWayr
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Re: College in fall

Post by MathIsMyWayr » Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:22 am

Normchad wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:08 pm
She has fully funded offers to start PhD programs in the fall, and also have good job offers. And she is trying to figure out what to do. If she goes the PhD route, and that starts out online, I think that is a complete waste of her time. On the other hand, if she commits to the jobs, who knows if they will still actually be there when she is supposed to start.
Not true. The first couple or few years of a PhD program are spent on course works, especially before a qualifying exam, unless she is lab oriented. It is about learning how to learn by herself.

Normchad
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Re: College in fall

Post by Normchad » Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:59 am

MathIsMyWayr wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:22 am
Normchad wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:08 pm
She has fully funded offers to start PhD programs in the fall, and also have good job offers. And she is trying to figure out what to do. If she goes the PhD route, and that starts out online, I think that is a complete waste of her time. On the other hand, if she commits to the jobs, who knows if they will still actually be there when she is supposed to start.
Not true. The first couple or few years of a PhD program are spent on course works, especially before a qualifying exam, unless she is lab oriented. It is about learning how to learn by herself.
Thanks for your thoughts. Since decisions were due on April 15th, and she saw no value in starting a PhD program remotely, she turned down those offers and is going into industry instead. In the absence of COVID-19, she likely would have made a different decision.

22twain
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Re: College in fall

Post by 22twain » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:27 am

Mudpuppy wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 2:35 pm
Quite a few of the private universities that have always existed on the financial margin are likely to be pushed far enough into a deficit to fold entirely. The ones with healthier endowments and private fundraising are still going to have to shrink their expenses given the current economic uncertainty and revenue impacts due to the pandemic.
We heard through the faculty grapevine yesterday that the small private college where we both taught has cut faculty salaries 3% and top administrators' salaries by more. In addition, the employer contribution to the TIAA 403(b) plan, formerly > 7%, has been eliminated completely. No word yet about shutting down any majors etc., but we won't be surprised if that shoe drops soon.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the athletic program, because about a third of the students participate in it. Many faculty consider that the college made an expensive mistake when it moved from NCAA Div II to Div I (FCS) just before the Great Recession hit. One of its nearby "comparison schools", which has been in much better financial shape as far as we know, has eliminated baseball and lacrosse. On the other hand, we already made significant changes a few years ago in an effort to "right-size" the athletic program, so maybe no further changes will be needed.
Last edited by 22twain on Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Normchad
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Re: College in fall

Post by Normchad » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:53 am

I love college sports, and a lot of other people do as well. But I sort of think it’s time to do away with them.

For the vast majority of schools, college athletics is a big money loser. And honestly, how does it further the core mission of education?

And for a lot of schools, the students are paying an additional fee to support the athletic department.

https://www.al.com/sports/2014/08/ncaa_ ... 20_fb.html

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat Jun 06, 2020 9:00 am

Normchad wrote:
Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:53 am
I love college sports, and a lot of other people do as well. But I sort of think it’s time to do away with them.

For the vast majority of schools, college athletics is a big money loser. And honestly, how does it further the core mission of education?

And for a lot of schools, the students are paying an additional fee to support the athletic department.

https://www.al.com/sports/2014/08/ncaa_ ... 20_fb.html
I played D1 football and 3 of my siblings were also college athletes, and I am a huge CFB fan, but I pretty much agree with you and it has little to nothing to do with the dangers of 100k people being in a stadium on Saturday.

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