College in fall

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue May 19, 2020 2:47 pm

xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Maybe the situation will be better in the fall of 2021 and the gap year approach will work. But I don't see how community colleges are going to be open if universities are not.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm

ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:22 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:49 pm
JD2775 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:33 am
AD3 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:45 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/us/n ... virus.html

It looks like Norte Dame is opening up for fall on August 10 for the fall semester, they are moving the start date up two weeks in order to finish the semester by thanksgiving. This seems a little short sided on decision making, the university has around 12,000 students and I'm wondering how they will test students and how often that will occur. I'm also wondering how they limit large gatherings, or whether greek life will occur during the fall. I would have a hard time sending my son or daughter to across the country during a pandemic in order to get a education especially with all of the unknowns about this virus. How will the university account for students that preconditions and might be at risk for covid? If I was a parent with a student in college I would be nervous about all of this.
I have seen that a few places lately.....schools talking about starting earlier (in August) and ending the semester early (by Thanksgiving). Does anyone know the reason for this? My guess is to have a longer break between semesters during peak flu season, but not sure.
My guess is so that the students who have been successfully infected by being crammed together on-campus can now pass on their infection to all those back home...call it a modified Swedish approach. :)

I really, really hope my kid's school decides to stay online-only this coming fall semester since their tuition/fees are covered by scholarship...it'd save me thousands of bucks otherwise spent on room & board.

I don't care about paying extra $. I want my daughter's school to be open if possible so she doesn't have to do on-line school again. I'd gladly pay thousands of bucks for her to have a normal college experience. That may not be possible, though. But we're already paying about $900 for an apartment next year so she'll be going back to school regardless of whether they're on-line or not.
Guess it depends on how well both the school and the individual student do with the online experience...in our case the school already had a large online presence in addition to multiple physical campuses.

And our kid has not experienced any problems moving to online instruction, which is fortunate since they had already signed up for an online class this summer as a prerequisite to a class they want this fall...to be fair, though, I'm sure their non-STEM major (e.g., no labs) helped with the transition to online learning, however long it lasts.

She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.

cshell2
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Re: College in fall

Post by cshell2 » Tue May 19, 2020 3:16 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:47 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Maybe the situation will be better in the fall of 2021 and the gap year approach will work. But I don't see how community colleges are going to be open if universities are not.
I think the point is, if you're going to take classes online, you might as well pay CC prices and transfer the credit in.

We considered this, but it became quite clear from some online parent meetings with the university that they weren't going to just allow gap years because you didn't want to do online, and the gap year contract prohibited you from taking classes anywhere else, so that pretty much sealed it for us. We don't want to go through having to reapply and get a spot, especially if the incoming 2021 class has a lot more students due to gap years.

getthatmarshmallow
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Re: College in fall

Post by getthatmarshmallow » Tue May 19, 2020 3:20 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:38 am
JD2775 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:33 am
AD3 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 8:45 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/us/n ... virus.html

It looks like Norte Dame is opening up for fall on August 10 for the fall semester, they are moving the start date up two weeks in order to finish the semester by thanksgiving. This seems a little short sided on decision making, the university has around 12,000 students and I'm wondering how they will test students and how often that will occur. I'm also wondering how they limit large gatherings, or whether greek life will occur during the fall. I would have a hard time sending my son or daughter to across the country during a pandemic in order to get a education especially with all of the unknowns about this virus. How will the university account for students that preconditions and might be at risk for covid? If I was a parent with a student in college I would be nervous about all of this.
I have seen that a few places lately.....schools talking about starting earlier (in August) and ending the semester early (by Thanksgiving). Does anyone know the reason for this? My guess is to have a longer break between semesters during peak flu season, but not sure.
Some people think that warm weather is good to suppress the virus. When the cold weather comes back, the virus situation may become severe. So ending the semester earlier might help.
The reason I've heard is that some models are predicting a spike in December. At a residential university, students will travel home for break, catch it or spread it with travel, then return,where they'll definitely spread it, and then send it home. Reducing one back and forth loop by cutting fall break cuts the risk significantly. (Most places did this in the spring by shutting down over spring break.) And tbh, twenty years in higher ed tell me most the students are kind of braindead between Thanksgiving and the start of finals. This is a smart call on the assumption they're good to go in August.

ncbill
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Re: College in fall

Post by ncbill » Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm

MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:22 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:49 pm
JD2775 wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:33 am


I have seen that a few places lately.....schools talking about starting earlier (in August) and ending the semester early (by Thanksgiving). Does anyone know the reason for this? My guess is to have a longer break between semesters during peak flu season, but not sure.
My guess is so that the students who have been successfully infected by being crammed together on-campus can now pass on their infection to all those back home...call it a modified Swedish approach. :)

I really, really hope my kid's school decides to stay online-only this coming fall semester since their tuition/fees are covered by scholarship...it'd save me thousands of bucks otherwise spent on room & board.

I don't care about paying extra $. I want my daughter's school to be open if possible so she doesn't have to do on-line school again. I'd gladly pay thousands of bucks for her to have a normal college experience. That may not be possible, though. But we're already paying about $900 for an apartment next year so she'll be going back to school regardless of whether they're on-line or not.
Guess it depends on how well both the school and the individual student do with the online experience...in our case the school already had a large online presence in addition to multiple physical campuses.

And our kid has not experienced any problems moving to online instruction, which is fortunate since they had already signed up for an online class this summer as a prerequisite to a class they want this fall...to be fair, though, I'm sure their non-STEM major (e.g., no labs) helped with the transition to online learning, however long it lasts.
She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.
Yeah, maybe it matters with new college students, but since my kid has just finished their sophomore year it's not such a big deal anymore.

The school has no sports to speak of, but is close enough to the "big city" that they've gone to a few (different teams) NFL games.

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm

xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Tue May 19, 2020 5:19 pm

"There will be no face-to-face lectures at the University of Cambridge over the course of the next academic year due to coronavirus, it has been announced."

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-52732814
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

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HomerJ
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Re: College in fall

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:45 am
Katietsu wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:21 am
The August 10-Thanksgiving schedule with no fall break seems to be trending right now. I hope it is successful as I live in one of the college towns. It is my understanding that some of University scientists here are working on developing a system of testing returning students. At this point, I believe they are planning only on a single test upon arrival with no routine testing during the semester. I am not holding breathe at the success of this approach but it is better than just crossing your fingers. Based on past years’ of influenza spread and the spread of coronavirus in a couple of mostly empty student apartments this April, I expect any infection to spread quickly. I think this is especially true since this group has determined that they are not at risk of dying. At college, even the deterrent that they might expose their own vulnerable loved ones is gone.

DH and O are in that middled age/medium risk and trying to figure out if we should plan on time off in September if this experiment starts to go bad. The administration was looking to encourage the retirement of older tenured faculty - This might help them accomplish that goal without the need for financial incentives.
Facing funding shortage, my university is encouraging every one to retire, not just older tenured faculty. I have not heard news about anyone retiring from my department. Judging from the online department meetings, those of 60s and 70s year old faculty are not planning to retire.
Time to turn down the heat... Got to make those old people uncomfortable!
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm

ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:22 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:49 pm


My guess is so that the students who have been successfully infected by being crammed together on-campus can now pass on their infection to all those back home...call it a modified Swedish approach. :)

I really, really hope my kid's school decides to stay online-only this coming fall semester since their tuition/fees are covered by scholarship...it'd save me thousands of bucks otherwise spent on room & board.

I don't care about paying extra $. I want my daughter's school to be open if possible so she doesn't have to do on-line school again. I'd gladly pay thousands of bucks for her to have a normal college experience. That may not be possible, though. But we're already paying about $900 for an apartment next year so she'll be going back to school regardless of whether they're on-line or not.
Guess it depends on how well both the school and the individual student do with the online experience...in our case the school already had a large online presence in addition to multiple physical campuses.

And our kid has not experienced any problems moving to online instruction, which is fortunate since they had already signed up for an online class this summer as a prerequisite to a class they want this fall...to be fair, though, I'm sure their non-STEM major (e.g., no labs) helped with the transition to online learning, however long it lasts.
She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.
Yeah, maybe it matters with new college students, but since my kid has just finished their sophomore year it's not such a big deal anymore.

The school has no sports to speak of, but is close enough to the "big city" that they've gone to a few (different teams) NFL games.


My daughter will be a junior and it's a really big deal to her and all of her friends. It's not just football (which is huge where she is), but the whole "being on campus" thing. I want her to be safe, but I hate to think that they might lose another semester of college. Some of her roommates lost their chance to study abroad, too. This whole thing just sucks for lots of college-aged kids (and many other people, obviously). My only point was that I don't care that I would save any money if school were completely on-line. I would gladly pay thousands of extra dollars, which I had planned to spend anyway, to avoid that.

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue May 19, 2020 5:44 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 9:45 am
Katietsu wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 12:21 am
The August 10-Thanksgiving schedule with no fall break seems to be trending right now. I hope it is successful as I live in one of the college towns. It is my understanding that some of University scientists here are working on developing a system of testing returning students. At this point, I believe they are planning only on a single test upon arrival with no routine testing during the semester. I am not holding breathe at the success of this approach but it is better than just crossing your fingers. Based on past years’ of influenza spread and the spread of coronavirus in a couple of mostly empty student apartments this April, I expect any infection to spread quickly. I think this is especially true since this group has determined that they are not at risk of dying. At college, even the deterrent that they might expose their own vulnerable loved ones is gone.

DH and O are in that middled age/medium risk and trying to figure out if we should plan on time off in September if this experiment starts to go bad. The administration was looking to encourage the retirement of older tenured faculty - This might help them accomplish that goal without the need for financial incentives.
Facing funding shortage, my university is encouraging every one to retire, not just older tenured faculty. I have not heard news about anyone retiring from my department. Judging from the online department meetings, those of 60s and 70s year old faculty are not planning to retire.
Time to turn down the heat... Got to make those old people uncomfortable!
You might be surprised how little so many of those 60 and 70 year olds have saved. When I've mentioned my plan to retire in my early 50s, many of them look at me like I'm a Martian. Many states no longer offer pensions to faculty at public institutions or else they are quite small.

Another reason is simply that many of these people enjoy their work so much that they just don't want to stop. I know one professor who has said that he will die in the classroom, and given his health situation, there's a good chance that his prophecy will come true. Perhaps some of them will retire if they see their younger brethren potentially being laid off if they don't.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

MAandMEMom
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Re: College in fall

Post by MAandMEMom » Tue May 19, 2020 9:06 pm

I believe that many colleges with large numbers of OOS and international students will jump on the end at the Thanksgiving trend with eliminated fall breaks to avoid students leaving and then coming back.

I also have a senior who will be a division I athlete in Boston and we are very concerned. She is attending one of the schools that been highly profiled as committing to be open. But at $74k that would be a very expensive online education that we are not willing to fund even at our net price. My rising sophomore son is literally at a college right next door so we are doubly holding our breathe. Adding Further insult to injury, both myself and my spouse work in higher ed!

RetiredCSProf
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Re: College in fall

Post by RetiredCSProf » Tue May 19, 2020 9:29 pm

I have a neighbor who teaches at a small private LAC (where I have also taught part-time). He says they are planning to be face-to-face in the fall, but have asked professors to prepare for a transition to online, if necessary, with only three days notice.

Another neighbor has put in for retirement as her department is expecting a drop in enrollment. She teaches "English as a 2nd Language" to international students at a Cal State.

marcopolo
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Re: College in fall

Post by marcopolo » Tue May 19, 2020 10:12 pm

MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:22 pm



I don't care about paying extra $. I want my daughter's school to be open if possible so she doesn't have to do on-line school again. I'd gladly pay thousands of bucks for her to have a normal college experience. That may not be possible, though. But we're already paying about $900 for an apartment next year so she'll be going back to school regardless of whether they're on-line or not.
Guess it depends on how well both the school and the individual student do with the online experience...in our case the school already had a large online presence in addition to multiple physical campuses.

And our kid has not experienced any problems moving to online instruction, which is fortunate since they had already signed up for an online class this summer as a prerequisite to a class they want this fall...to be fair, though, I'm sure their non-STEM major (e.g., no labs) helped with the transition to online learning, however long it lasts.
She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.
Yeah, maybe it matters with new college students, but since my kid has just finished their sophomore year it's not such a big deal anymore.

The school has no sports to speak of, but is close enough to the "big city" that they've gone to a few (different teams) NFL games.


My daughter will be a junior and it's a really big deal to her and all of her friends. It's not just football (which is huge where she is), but the whole "being on campus" thing. I want her to be safe, but I hate to think that they might lose another semester of college. Some of her roommates lost their chance to study abroad, too. This whole thing just sucks for lots of college-aged kids (and many other people, obviously). My only point was that I don't care that I would save any money if school were completely on-line. I would gladly pay thousands of extra dollars, which I had planned to spend anyway, to avoid that.
I agree with you whole heartedly. I had a great college "experience", and want the same for my kids. I know many view that as a waste of money, but I see it as money well spent. It is no different than spending a bunch of money on a vacation to get an experience. The college experience has a much more lasting effect, at least in my life.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

flyingaway
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Re: College in fall

Post by flyingaway » Wed May 20, 2020 10:49 am

I guess, with the opening of all 50 states to some extend, by late August, we may have around 30% of the population, hopefully larger percentage in students, to have immunity. If that is true, future infection will be slowed to some acceptable levels. The transmission may be stopped with about 60%~70% of the population having immunity.
The current trend seems to be more testing, almost same number of infection (smaller percentage), and fewer death, which suggests that the situation is becoming manageable.

I guess professors should be more worried than students do if in class instructions resume.

novolog
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Re: College in fall

Post by novolog » Wed May 20, 2020 2:06 pm

In my opinion an undergraduate degree is primarily valuable as a signal to future employers/society and as a socialization/networking/country club period. I will be interested to see how the COVID crisis affects this market. I could see how a future shift toward online classes could lessen the "prestige" of some institutions and make it a less powerful signal... It definitely eliminates the country club factor...

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed May 20, 2020 2:39 pm

novolog wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:06 pm
I could see how a future shift toward online classes could lessen the "prestige" of some institutions and make it a less powerful signal...
I don't see the current switch to online education lasting more than a year at most. Students and their parents won't stand for it, and the declining enrollments will make universities, many of whom have already been experiencing budget problems, scream for state governments to let them reopen their campuses. Think of all the college towns all over the country that will be hurting over the next academic year, not to mention all of the staff that keep campuses operational.

Many U.S. consumers, especially those who are older, are reticent for things to reopen too quickly, and I completely understand that and mostly agree with it. But at the same time, the current restrictions simply cannot last indefinitely. The repercussions would be more severe than the threat of the virus.

This thread has definitely shown me that there is still a lot of resistance to online learning, which is a bit surprising, but it's something that I generally agree is sub-optimal compared to face-to-face instruction, at least in many instances.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

oldfort
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Re: College in fall

Post by oldfort » Fri May 22, 2020 7:12 pm

Mudpuppy wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:56 pm
I would not want to audit the code coming from someone who did those five courses without the appropriate mathematical and critical thinking background and without diving deep into CS principles (particularly cybersecurity and test/audit principles). Those would be the sort of coders to not realize why a compiler will have different results with if(MAX_SIZE - chunk <= size) and if(size + chunk > MAX_SIZE) (the crux of the Stagefright vulnerability coding error) because it takes more than a vocational education to understand such complexities.
I haven't written a line of code in over a decade and your quiz seems simple enough to me. If size and chunk are unsigned integers, their sum can overflow, but MAX_SIZE - chunk never will.

Mudpuppy
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Re: College in fall

Post by Mudpuppy » Fri May 22, 2020 7:58 pm

oldfort wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 7:12 pm
Mudpuppy wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:56 pm
I would not want to audit the code coming from someone who did those five courses without the appropriate mathematical and critical thinking background and without diving deep into CS principles (particularly cybersecurity and test/audit principles). Those would be the sort of coders to not realize why a compiler will have different results with if(MAX_SIZE - chunk <= size) and if(size + chunk > MAX_SIZE) (the crux of the Stagefright vulnerability coding error) because it takes more than a vocational education to understand such complexities.
I haven't written a line of code in over a decade and your quiz seems simple enough to me. If size and chunk are unsigned integers, their sum can overflow, but MAX_SIZE - chunk never will.
It was actually a subtle underflow situation with the subtraction operation since chunk was a 64-bit unsigned integer and the other variables were 32-bit unsigned integers. I'll send you a PM with the details.

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greg24
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Re: College in fall

Post by greg24 » Fri May 22, 2020 8:56 pm

novolog wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:06 pm
In my opinion an undergraduate degree is primarily valuable as a signal to future employers/society and as a socialization/networking/country club period. I will be interested to see how the COVID crisis affects this market. I could see how a future shift toward online classes could lessen the "prestige" of some institutions and make it a less powerful signal... It definitely eliminates the country club factor...
That is possible.

I could also see this crush some of the more marginal schools, and heighten the prestige of the biggest names.

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AerialWombat
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Re: College in fall

Post by AerialWombat » Fri May 22, 2020 9:07 pm

.....
Last edited by AerialWombat on Sat May 23, 2020 6:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri May 22, 2020 9:31 pm

greg24 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:56 pm
novolog wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 2:06 pm
In my opinion an undergraduate degree is primarily valuable as a signal to future employers/society and as a socialization/networking/country club period. I will be interested to see how the COVID crisis affects this market. I could see how a future shift toward online classes could lessen the "prestige" of some institutions and make it a less powerful signal... It definitely eliminates the country club factor...
That is possible.

I could also see this crush some of the more marginal schools, and heighten the prestige of the biggest names.
A number of universities will merge or close unless there is a massive federal bailout. That's a certainty.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Irenaeus
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Re: College in fall

Post by Irenaeus » Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm

Vulcan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.

MDfan
Posts: 304
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Sat May 23, 2020 9:17 am

Vulcan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.


I, for one, disagree completely with "cheering" the disappearance of college sports. College can be "academics-focused" and kids can still actually have some fun and socialize. I played a college sport and I loved it and it was a great life experience. If my kids have the opportunity, I hope they do the same. I just feel bad for those kids in some of the non-revenue sports that are already being cut at some universities due to the virus. To me personally, a world without college football and college basketball wouldn't be an improvement.
Last edited by MDfan on Sat May 23, 2020 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

stoptothink
Posts: 7865
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 23, 2020 9:17 am

marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:12 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm


Guess it depends on how well both the school and the individual student do with the online experience...in our case the school already had a large online presence in addition to multiple physical campuses.

And our kid has not experienced any problems moving to online instruction, which is fortunate since they had already signed up for an online class this summer as a prerequisite to a class they want this fall...to be fair, though, I'm sure their non-STEM major (e.g., no labs) helped with the transition to online learning, however long it lasts.
She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.
Yeah, maybe it matters with new college students, but since my kid has just finished their sophomore year it's not such a big deal anymore.

The school has no sports to speak of, but is close enough to the "big city" that they've gone to a few (different teams) NFL games.


My daughter will be a junior and it's a really big deal to her and all of her friends. It's not just football (which is huge where she is), but the whole "being on campus" thing. I want her to be safe, but I hate to think that they might lose another semester of college. Some of her roommates lost their chance to study abroad, too. This whole thing just sucks for lots of college-aged kids (and many other people, obviously). My only point was that I don't care that I would save any money if school were completely on-line. I would gladly pay thousands of extra dollars, which I had planned to spend anyway, to avoid that.
I agree with you whole heartedly. I had a great college "experience", and want the same for my kids. I know many view that as a waste of money, but I see it as money well spent. It is no different than spending a bunch of money on a vacation to get an experience. The college experience has a much more lasting effect, at least in my life.
As long as you can afford it, more power to you. I guess you can say I had "the experience", up front as I played football at a major university, but it didn't have a great (positive) effect on me and that time period isn't special when I look back on my life. We don't tend to spend tens of thousands of dollars on vacation - for each kid, years on end - so it's a little rich for my blood.

I have no idea how much will be in their 529s when my kids (8 and 5) are that age (and no clue how much college will be then), but we definitely are not saving with the thought that it is our responsibility to pay for an experience that we both had (our parents contributed a combined $0) but see little value in. But, ultimately it will be their decision as to how that money is spent.

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 23, 2020 9:26 am

Irenaeus wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.
Off topic, but considering preliminary data suggests insulin resistance appears to significantly increase risk for serious issues from COVID https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... zHLTiA1j40, this is absolutely the case. Whether or not school sports combats obesity, that's another issue altogether (as a former college football player, depending on the position you play, it probably promotes obesity).

oldfort
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Re: College in fall

Post by oldfort » Sat May 23, 2020 10:57 am

Irenaeus wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.
Participation in college sports isn’t a great way to combat lifetime obesity. What matters the most is lifetime physical fitness. College sports can be detrimental to lifetime physical fitness, as many players develop chronic injuries which prevent them from working out in the future. Some college sports can be brutal on the human body. Football and ice hockey have a high risk of concussions, which over time can lead to CTE.

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 23, 2020 11:08 am

oldfort wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 10:57 am
Irenaeus wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.
Participation in college sports isn’t a great way to combat lifetime obesity. What matters the most is lifetime physical fitness. College sports can be detrimental to lifetime physical fitness, as many players develop chronic injuries which prevent them from working out in the future. Some college sports can be brutal on the human body. Football and ice hockey have a high risk of concussions, which over time can lead to CTE.
I love college sports, I am one of 4 (out of 7) siblings who played D1 sports, but it is really hard to suggest that it plays any role in mitigating obesity/MetS, even on an individual level. Participation in athletics in general: certainly.

marcopolo
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Re: College in fall

Post by marcopolo » Sat May 23, 2020 11:22 am

stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 9:17 am
marcopolo wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 10:12 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:34 pm
ncbill wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 4:58 pm
MDfan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 3:07 pm


She did fine with the on-line experience. But, to me, that's not what college is. I want her to have the whole experience and I don't care about saving some money because they're fully online. I WANT to pay that extra money. Being on campus, around friends, her sorority, football (she's at a big SEC school), all of it. In addition to the school part. Like I said, she will still do some of that regardless because she lives off-campus anyway. I just don't want her (or any kids) to lose another semester on campus. I fully understand that may not be possible, though.
Yeah, maybe it matters with new college students, but since my kid has just finished their sophomore year it's not such a big deal anymore.

The school has no sports to speak of, but is close enough to the "big city" that they've gone to a few (different teams) NFL games.


My daughter will be a junior and it's a really big deal to her and all of her friends. It's not just football (which is huge where she is), but the whole "being on campus" thing. I want her to be safe, but I hate to think that they might lose another semester of college. Some of her roommates lost their chance to study abroad, too. This whole thing just sucks for lots of college-aged kids (and many other people, obviously). My only point was that I don't care that I would save any money if school were completely on-line. I would gladly pay thousands of extra dollars, which I had planned to spend anyway, to avoid that.
I agree with you whole heartedly. I had a great college "experience", and want the same for my kids. I know many view that as a waste of money, but I see it as money well spent. It is no different than spending a bunch of money on a vacation to get an experience. The college experience has a much more lasting effect, at least in my life.
As long as you can afford it, more power to you. I guess you can say I had "the experience", up front as I played football at a major university, but it didn't have a great (positive) effect on me and that time period isn't special when I look back on my life. We don't tend to spend tens of thousands of dollars on vacation - for each kid, years on end - so it's a little rich for my blood.

I have no idea how much will be in their 529s when my kids (8 and 5) are that age (and no clue how much college will be then), but we definitely are not saving with the thought that it is our responsibility to pay for an experience that we both had (our parents contributed a combined $0) but see little value in. But, ultimately it will be their decision as to how that money is spent.
I completely agree about only doing so if you can afford it.
I would say that about most things.

We were fortunate to be able to save for retirement and fund our kids education. They went to a state flagship school, so it was not as pricey as many others are facing.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

BernardShakey
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Re: College in fall

Post by BernardShakey » Sat May 23, 2020 12:31 pm

It will certainly be interesting to see what comes of college sports. The in-person "college experience" is still going to be a draw for millions of families in this country and as such there will be continued pressure from schools, college towns, and students to do everything possible to re-open and establish some sort of return to normalcy. Big time sports programs and the TV money associated them will add to the push to re-open. Certainly things will change as some colleges will probably offer more and more on-line opportunities in the future as a revenue generator, but the $60-70k per year experience at Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, USC, Northwestern, Stanford, etc. nor the "live on campus at the big flagship state school experience" won't be going away any time soon. Near-term impact, yes --- long term, not so much.
A key to investing is having a well-calibrated sense of your future regret.

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Sat May 23, 2020 5:46 pm

Irenaeus wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.
U.S. is the most obese nation in the world. It is also the only one where "college sports" is a thing.

I wouldn't go as far as blaming the obesity epidemics on college sports, but I would also question whether it's helping much;-)
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

scooterdog
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Re: College in fall

Post by scooterdog » Tue May 26, 2020 7:19 am

Spouse and I are looking down the barrel of sufficient 529 funds (and income) to put our eldest through an expensive program (out-of-state 'safety school') running some $60K+ per year.

I'm actually hoping the school does online-only this Fall if to encourage re-application to a wider scope of schools, importantly those abroad.

Read recently how important signaling is to future employers - giving me an insight that higher ed's customer is not the student, nor the parents paying for that student, but the future employer. Thus super-high selectivity and high graduation rates once in (as that's what they are evaluated on) and unaffordable spiraling costs. MOOCs and other attempts at lowering the cost do not factor in both selectivity and rigor in completing a course of study, thus employers look on all those as unequivalent.

I'm becoming convinced that this pandemic, while giving a huge financial catastrophe to all institutions of higher ed, won't give the current system the shock it needs to fundamentally reform, unless a true equivalent arises for the future employer. The complaints have risen for years (decades, as the problem of spiraling costs stretch back to the late 1980's) with no change at all.

For a counter-argument, this CNN Town Hall with an NYU professor / book author Scott Galloway has a good case, but I alas will not hold my breath. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3i4uMc2X0k

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Gray
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Re: College in fall

Post by Gray » Thu May 28, 2020 10:08 am

I worked with my daughter to find the best school for her intended major given the amount of money we had saved, are saving, and will cover out of pocket (books, etc). In her case it was Virginia Tech for Computer Science and in-state tuition. She did not want to graduate with any significant debt (that she couldn’t pay off in a few months) and I won’t contribute above the level we are. I don’t understand the cost/benefit of paying $60K/yr.

Exterous
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Re: College in fall

Post by Exterous » Thu May 28, 2020 4:20 pm

Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:46 pm
Irenaeus wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
xenochrony wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 2:02 pm
Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS senior kids have the same position. Though each have different solutions (e.g gap year, Community college, etc.).
Why is online instruction catastrophic for a STEM major?

As I said above, our son is determined to make the best of his freshman year in whatever format it comes, so we are sticking to the plan.

As for "college sports", which is a uniquely American oxymoron, if it disappears completely, then that is one aftereffect of Covid-19 we should cheer, not lament, as it would results in more meritocratic admissions process and a more academics-focused college culture.
I do think in some regards school sports are given undue emphasis not only at the college level but also at lower levels. Yet the whole world is reportedly in an obesity epidemic. Participation in sports is one way to combat obesity. I had a casual conversation with a medical doctor about a year ago. He said diabetes is ruining the economy: the Covid pandemic has already added a striking punctuation mark to his statement.
U.S. is the most obese nation in the world. It is also the only one where "college sports" is a thing.

I wouldn't go as far as blaming the obesity epidemics on college sports, but I would also question whether it's helping much;-)
While rankings and percents vary a bit we're more towards #12-17
https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 8rank.html
https://moneyinc.com/most-obese-countries-in-the-world/


More to the point I know a lot of Universities are still looking to try and address\provide at least some of the "college experience" beyond instruction in the fall by various methods. I suspect those efforts will be varied as will the level of success achieved.

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Thu May 28, 2020 6:00 pm

These other countries have really tiny population.

Nauru, pop 11,000? I am sure some towns in American deep South can put their BMI to shame :)
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

Katietsu
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Re: College in fall

Post by Katietsu » Thu May 28, 2020 7:23 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:49 am
I guess, with the opening of all 50 states to some extend, by late August, we may have around 30% of the population, hopefully larger percentage in students, to have immunity. If that is true, future infection will be slowed to some acceptable levels. The transmission may be stopped with about 60%~70% of the population having immunity.
The current trend seems to be more testing, almost same number of infection (smaller percentage), and fewer death, which suggests that the situation is becoming manageable.

I guess professors should be more worried than students do if in class instructions resume.
It appears that to get to herd immunity with current treatments, best guess, at least 1 million people will die in the US. Another estimate puts it at closer to 5 million. Many times over that would need hospitalized and possibly need weeks or months to recover. Of course, that assumes a homogeneity of infections. There is a reason that no country, including Sweden, has used obtaining natural herd immunity as a strategy.

But, yes, the professors and all of us without the immune system of a 22 year old who are living in a college town should be worried.

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm

Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.

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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm

MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

Normchad
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Re: College in fall

Post by Normchad » Thu May 28, 2020 9:23 pm

This will be fascinating to watch unfold. Now that we've been at this for several months, all the high school seniors who have been doing courses on-line are saying they don't want to repeat that experience in the fall.

So the impact to universities will be interesting to see.

I don't know how they could meet in person and keep "social distancing" in place. Dorm rooms are a problem, bathrooms are a problem, lectures are a problem, etc etc etc. I just don't know how it could effectively be done. (Plus thousands of hormonal and unsupervised teenagers in close-proximity are prone to poor decisions anyways....)

Maybe this will lead to a revolution in on-line education, or maybe it will reinforce the idea that "on-line" isn't a good substitute for the residential experience.

MDfan
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Re: College in fall

Post by MDfan » Fri May 29, 2020 7:08 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.


My daughter's school (Tennessee) has already announced they're starting on-time and in-person in August, skipping Fall Break, and finishing up classes the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. All final exams will be on-line from home. Apparently, many other schools are following a similar schedule.

flyingaway
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Re: College in fall

Post by flyingaway » Fri May 29, 2020 9:50 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
I think the weakest are already dead. If the situation continues, the death rate will decline. Because there are many people who are infected and are not tested, I think infection rate is also slowing.

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Re: College in fall

Post by flyingaway » Fri May 29, 2020 9:54 am

Here is a report from Japan: (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... tEhYUBFxjo)

"The number of deaths across the nation fell in the first three months of 2020 despite the novel coronavirus, according to data issued by the health ministry, adding weight to the government’s position that it was able to control the first wave of infections in the pandemic.

The mortality data, released Tuesday, showed Japan recorded 368,793 deaths in the first three months of this year — a 0.7 percent fall from the average of the same period in the past five years."

Why there is no similar report in the U.S.? How many people died last year and how many people died this year in the same period? So we can have a clear understanding the impact of this pandemic.

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Fri May 29, 2020 11:08 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
Current best estimate of IFR (infection fatality rate) is approx 0.6%.

That gives approx. 200K deaths per 10% of infected US population (i.e. 1M if 50% are infected, 2M if almost all are infected).

Based on these numbers we can deduct that we are currently at approx 5% infection rate.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

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willthrill81
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Re: College in fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri May 29, 2020 10:30 pm

MDfan wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 7:08 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
My daughter's school (Tennessee) has already announced they're starting on-time and in-person in August, skipping Fall Break, and finishing up classes the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. All final exams will be on-line from home. Apparently, many other schools are following a similar schedule.
Maybe they'll stick to that. I really hope that they do. But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online (e.g. 'our state's governor has mandated that our courses be online'). And I'm saying this as a university professor, not someone who is disgruntled with higher ed and trying to bash it.

Many universities around the nation have already been feeling the effects of the coming demographic crunch, and with fall enrollments likely to go down, they are scrambling to do whatever they can to acquire and retain students.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: College in fall

Post by smitcat » Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:30 pm
MDfan wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 7:08 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
My daughter's school (Tennessee) has already announced they're starting on-time and in-person in August, skipping Fall Break, and finishing up classes the Tuesday before Thanksgiving. All final exams will be on-line from home. Apparently, many other schools are following a similar schedule.
Maybe they'll stick to that. I really hope that they do. But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online (e.g. 'our state's governor has mandated that our courses be online'). And I'm saying this as a university professor, not someone who is disgruntled with higher ed and trying to bash it.

Many universities around the nation have already been feeling the effects of the coming demographic crunch, and with fall enrollments likely to go down, they are scrambling to do whatever they can to acquire and retain students.
"But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online"

This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.

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HomerJ
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Re: College in fall

Post by HomerJ » Sat May 30, 2020 10:15 am

Vulcan wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 11:08 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 pm
MDfan wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 7:31 pm
Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme.
It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need exposure before herd immunity really kicks in (~90%, maybe higher, seems to generally be the needed proportion with other viruses), that means that 60 times more fatalities would result. That's 6 million people. Even if the actual number of cases so far is 50 million, we would hit around 600k deaths before herd immunity set in.

Now if we take that with the very high likelihood that no widespread vaccine will be available until at least the summer of 2020, I believe that there is above a 50% probability that a majority of U.S. university courses will be held online for the 2020-2021 academic year.
Current best estimate of IFR (infection fatality rate) is approx 0.6%.

That gives approx. 200K deaths per 10% of infected US population (i.e. 1M if 50% are infected, 2M if almost all are infected).

Based on these numbers we can deduct that we are currently at approx 5% infection rate.
The Infection fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the total CONFIRMED infected, right?

You can't extrapolate with that number.

What's important (and difficult to determine) is the number of deaths divided by total infected.. Until we know total infected (asymptomatic people), we can't extrapolate how many people will die.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

SimonJester
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Re: College in fall

Post by SimonJester » Sat May 30, 2020 10:45 am

smitcat wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 8:18 am
"But as I've noted in this thread, many universities have announced that they are planning to return to face-to-face instruction in the fall but know full well that it's unlikely that they actually will. This is tactic has two objectives: (1) to try to keep students on the hook for as long as possible to increase the likelihood that they will stay enrolled even if/when courses go online and (2) to have someone else to 'blame' if/when they are forced to teach online"

This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs.
That is not going to work as most schools allow you to withdraw from classes upto the census date which is several weeks after the start of school. My kids can get their entire tuition refunded upto the census date. Both has said they will withdraw if classes are online only. Any class that is hands on ie labs, vocational trades, hands on engineering classes using school equipment, medical courses are pretty worthless for online only at least in their current form.

Another big loss my kids reported was study groups, both kids were going to study group and learning centers for all their classes. This all evaporated as soon as their schools went online only.
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Sat May 30, 2020 11:10 am

HomerJ wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:15 am
Vulcan wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 11:08 am
Current best estimate of IFR (infection fatality rate) is approx 0.6%.

That gives approx. 200K deaths per 10% of infected US population (i.e. 1M if 50% are infected, 2M if almost all are infected).

Based on these numbers we can deduct that we are currently at approx 5% infection rate.
The Infection fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by the total CONFIRMED infected, right?
No, that would be CFR (case fatality rate), which is much higher than 0.6%.

IFR and CFR are commonly confused.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata ... ality_rate

"The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections. The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group)."
HomerJ wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 10:15 am
You can't extrapolate with that number.

What's important (and difficult to determine) is the number of deaths divided by total infected.. Until we know total infected (asymptomatic people), we can't extrapolate how many people will die.
IFR is currently thought to be known with reasonable precision based on antibody test results, but will, of course, be revised somewhat as more data is gathered.

Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
Last edited by Vulcan on Sat May 30, 2020 11:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

stoptothink
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Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 30, 2020 11:20 am

Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:10 am

IFR and CFR are commonly confused.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata ... ality_rate

"The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections. The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group)."
So, in other words it is another estimate; we've all seen how accurate epidemiology modeling generally is.

Any data is just noise until this thing is all done, we have no clue. That is the scariest thing.

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Vulcan
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Re: College in fall

Post by Vulcan » Sat May 30, 2020 11:25 am

stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:20 am
Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:10 am

IFR and CFR are commonly confused.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata ... ality_rate

"The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections. The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group)."
So, in other words it is another estimate; we've all seen how accurate epidemiology modeling generally is.

Any data is just noise until this thing is all done, we have no clue. That is the scariest thing.
Yes, well, it is an estimate (epidemiology is not a precise science), but not based on models, but rather on antibody testing of population samples in infection hot spots.

They measure how many people have antibodies, those tests are highly accurate, so anyone with antibodies will have had been infected. So that becomes your denominator. Of course, for IFR to be accurate the numerator also has to be accurate, and not all fatalities may be accurately reported and attributed.

But no, this data is far from noise. This is the best scientific evidence we have. It is scary enough with the numbers we know. No point in denying science.

The NPR article I linked in my previous post explains everything well, though the title is somewhat click-bity.
If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. ~Ronald Coase

stoptothink
Posts: 7865
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:53 am

Re: College in fall

Post by stoptothink » Sat May 30, 2020 11:29 am

Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:25 am
stoptothink wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:20 am
Vulcan wrote:
Sat May 30, 2020 11:10 am

IFR and CFR are commonly confused.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata ... ality_rate

"The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the CFR, but attempts to additionally account for all asymptomatic and undiagnosed infections. The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group)."
So, in other words it is another estimate; we've all seen how accurate epidemiology modeling generally is.

Any data is just noise until this thing is all done, we have no clue. That is the scariest thing.
Yes, well, it is an estimate (epidemiology is not a precise science), but not based on models, but rather on antibody testing of population samples in infection hot spots.

They measure how many people have antibodies, those tests are highly accurate, so anyone with antibodies will have had been infected. So that becomes your denominator. Of course, for IFR to be accurate the numerator also has to be accurate.

But no, this data is far from noise. This is the best scientific evidence we have. It is scary enough with the numbers we know. No point in denying science.
The CDC has been very clear that there are serious concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests. So much so, that they are very adamant that they should not be used to influence policy. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns- ... 020-05-27/.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/health/a ... index.html

I'm not "denying science", I'm a scientist myself, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to trust anybody's data at this point.

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