Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

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WJW
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by WJW » Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am

Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:49 am
calvin+hobbes wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:34 am
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:49 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:30 am
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:14 am


Same! Because I don't own any rental properties 8-)

For real, though, I'd be nervous right now if I were a landlord - there's a lot of uncertainty still unfolding. If I owned a rental property, I would be looking to sell it now and avoid an uncertain next few weeks, months, years ... but to each their own. Good luck out there.
I have no mortgage on my investment, I vet my tenants well and never had any problems with it. I would sell it if there were a place I could park the proceeds and earn a better return but there isn't so I keep on keeping on.
If it works for you, power to you. I would be less focused on past (lack of) problems and present returns than future risks, but that's just me.
I see your point but aren’t the alternative investments chock full of perceived future risk as well? Unless you consider CDs a reasonable alternative.
I've always been skeptical of real estate investing on the individual scale (e.g. own a few properties, rent 'em out). Too much concentration risk - relies on local markets, subject to regional or building-specific disasters, tenants, codes, and unexpected expenses. And that was before this crisis. Now, who knows? There are some saying real estate in the Bay (where I live) will actually get pricier on the rental side as people get foreclosed on and have to rent. Maybe in other places it'll crash- e.g. areas that rely on a company that goes under, or tourism, etc....

I'm not saying anyone else should subscribe to my skepticism, but as for alternatives: CDs don't make sense to me. Real estate is very high-risk, high-reward stuff generally, so if I had a rental and was selling it, I'd just roll the proceeds into my somewhat stock-heavy portfolio. I figure a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is still a lot less risky than a set of houses in [insert location here] - see also: idiosyncratic risk. If someone really wanted something more 'parallel' to sold real estate, REITs are probably the closest, but those are already in the index, so whatever. Mainly, I'm just thinking about how a friend tried to get me into rental RE years ago, and how I'm glad I'm not in that business right now.

I do sincerely hope it works out for all the folks who are facing this ongoing and upcoming uncertainty though - wish you all the best!
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...

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Noobvestor
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Noobvestor » Sat May 23, 2020 7:14 am

WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...
It might well, but it's still a concentrated risk, making it very different from cash, stock or bond indexes. Much like I avoid high concentrations of individual stocks, I avoid high concentrations in a individual properties. That's just too much in one basket for me. To each their own, though.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

WJW
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by WJW » Sat May 23, 2020 7:15 am

Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:14 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...
It might well, but it's still a concentrated risk, making it very different from cash, stock or bond indexes. Much like I avoid high concentrations of individual stocks, I avoid high concentrations in a individual properties. That's just too much in one basket for me. To each their own, though.
No risk no reward. Personally, real estate has done very well for me.

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Noobvestor
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Noobvestor » Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 pm

WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:15 am
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:14 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...
It might well, but it's still a concentrated risk, making it very different from cash, stock or bond indexes. Much like I avoid high concentrations of individual stocks, I avoid high concentrations in a individual properties. That's just too much in one basket for me. To each their own, though.
No risk no reward. Personally, real estate has done very well for me.
"No risk no reward" is a fair point, but I'm referring specifically to idiosyncratic risk which a lot of Bogleheads choose to avoid where possible. I would, for instance, rather take REIT risk than single-property risk. A single property can fail more more easily than the entire real estate sector. Of course, a single property can also do much better. Hard to know in advance, but I prefer to limit the range of extreme outcomes.

This reminds me of a quote from Bernstein's 15 Stock Diversification Myth post: "By owning only 15 stocks you increase your chances of becoming fabulously rich. But unfortunately, in investing, it is all too often true that the same things that maximize your chances of getting rich also maximize your chances of getting poor." I'm much more interested in avoiding the latter than aiming for the former. YMMV!
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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AerialWombat
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by AerialWombat » Sat May 23, 2020 7:46 pm

.....
Last edited by AerialWombat on Thu May 28, 2020 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Noobvestor
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Noobvestor » Sat May 23, 2020 8:27 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:46 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 pm
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:15 am
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:14 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...
It might well, but it's still a concentrated risk, making it very different from cash, stock or bond indexes. Much like I avoid high concentrations of individual stocks, I avoid high concentrations in a individual properties. That's just too much in one basket for me. To each their own, though.
No risk no reward. Personally, real estate has done very well for me.
"No risk no reward" is a fair point, but I'm referring specifically to idiosyncratic risk which a lot of Bogleheads choose to avoid where possible. I would, for instance, rather take REIT risk than single-property risk. A single property can fail more more easily than the entire real estate sector. Of course, a single property can also do much better. Hard to know in advance, but I prefer to limit the range of extreme outcomes.
This risk can be somewhat mitigated. My rental properties are spread across three different states, in cities with very different economies, but each city having very strong “essential” primary employers. I buy properties in neighborhoods and condition that would be attractive to folks that work at these primary employers, so there is a strong selection bias.

Other risks can be managed by the property manager one selects, tenant screening overlays, etc. The biggest thing, in my opinion, is to have ridiculously large cash or near-cash reserves. Having 12 months of PITI for all properties in reserve is where I’m comfortable.

Being a landlord is an active business, and needs to be treated like one. For folks that don’t want to run a business, they are better off in REITs if they want a real estate tilt.
I completely agree with you. I think diversifying across states mitigates some of your risk (I always wonder what it was like for people who invested in real estate in places like Detroit - lovely city, not knocking it - when it was much more expensive). I also strongly agree with treating it like a business - some people get into it thinking it's going to be an investment, but as you know first-hand it takes work.

I have a friend who lucked out and got properties in a rising-value neighborhood when things were crazy (zero down, etc...) then leveraged his way to success, but it was a rocky road and it could have gone differently for him - that's the nature any enterprise. The reason I mentioned idiosyncratic risk was mainly to illustrate that it's just very different from passively investing in real estate - it is, as you say, a business.

Anyway, I think your post is a good one for anyone thinking about investing in rental real estate to read and consider. Answering the question of the thread: the reason I'm not doing it is because I don't want a new business or to take on certain kinds of risks and responsibilities.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

gr7070
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by gr7070 » Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 pm
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:15 am
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:14 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:08 am
Some of us real estate investors also have an investment portfolio that includes cash, stocks and bonds. The real estate is just another diversifier that could potentially decrease our risk as well as increase our returns or not...
It might well, but it's still a concentrated risk, making it very different from cash, stock or bond indexes. Much like I avoid high concentrations of individual stocks, I avoid high concentrations in a individual properties. That's just too much in one basket for me. To each their own, though.
No risk no reward. Personally, real estate has done very well for me.
A single property can fail more more easily than the entire real estate sector.
Does it though? Really?

Ignoring tenant risk, which is where I think most of the risk occurs. Of course just stripping out that risk is unfair, but I'm curious what folks think of real estate values.

Other than the recession and the depression when has real estate taken significant losses nationwide? And even the recession isn't a great example. In most states RE held up reasonably well. It was largely the sand-states and Detroit that experienced significant losses.

Property values rarely have had significant drops. Unlike equity bear markets that occur frequently and multiple with massive losses across the board.

The real concern is the tenants.

helloyou
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by helloyou » Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm

Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....

Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.

Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years. The rent pays for your mortgage. Meanwhile your money passively invested in S&P500 returns 5%, that’s called leverage.

It’s a all win situation.

1) You have not taken any of your own money
2) The tenant is practically paying for your mortgage
3) You are actually making money borrowing as you do so at 3% while your cash equivalent is returning 5%

After 10 years, mortgage is paid, your tenant pays you rent every month and the value of your apartment is probably 150k now. You have made 150k out of nowhere without putting any of your money and these 150k generate you a nice return and if you’re still unhappy with it you can just sell.

This completely make sense financially. Sure there would be unforeseen events (maintenance, tenant not paying etc) but statistically and mathematically this is a no brainer (assuming you do some research on the location etc)

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HomerJ
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by HomerJ » Sun May 24, 2020 12:57 am

WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:30 am
I vet my tenants well and never had any problems with it.
How does one "vet" their tenants for a possible Great Depression?

Someone can have a great credit score, good work history, and still lose a decent-paying job if their employer goes bankrupt.

Did you screen all your tenants ahead of time to make sure they had jobs that could be done from home? That's some excellent foresight...
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

fatgeorge
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by fatgeorge » Sun May 24, 2020 2:08 am

helloyou wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm
Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....
Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.
Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years.
...
After 10 years, mortgage is paid
Your numbers seem to be off.

boogiehead
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by boogiehead » Sun May 24, 2020 2:32 am

helloyou wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm
Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....

Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.

Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years. The rent pays for your mortgage. Meanwhile your money passively invested in S&P500 returns 5%, that’s called leverage.

It’s a all win situation.

1) You have not taken any of your own money
2) The tenant is practically paying for your mortgage
3) You are actually making money borrowing as you do so at 3% while your cash equivalent is returning 5%

After 10 years, mortgage is paid, your tenant pays you rent every month and the value of your apartment is probably 150k now. You have made 150k out of nowhere without putting any of your money and these 150k generate you a nice return and if you’re still unhappy with it you can just sell.

This completely make sense financially. Sure there would be unforeseen events (maintenance, tenant not paying etc) but statistically and mathematically this is a no brainer (assuming you do some research on the location etc)
I think that's what the real estate "schools" teach you.... if it was only that easy :D

barberakb
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by barberakb » Sun May 24, 2020 2:49 am

Actually I am... Just got an offer accepted on a house the other day.

Surprisingly homes are selling like crazy here. The avg home I looked at sold in 3 days on the market at full or over full asking price.

sp0704
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by sp0704 » Sun May 24, 2020 7:15 am

However, this scenario isn't realistic. If it's bought as an investment property, you probably need at least 20 to 25% down and in order to generate positive cash flow for a little reserves each month, amortization would be 25 to 30 years. Few investors hold a single property that long because of the maintenance costs and will sell in the next perceived frothy market cycle.
helloyou wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm
Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....

Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.

Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years. The rent pays for your mortgage. Meanwhile your money passively invested in S&P500 returns 5%, that’s called leverage.

It’s a all win situation.

1) You have not taken any of your own money
2) The tenant is practically paying for your mortgage
3) You are actually making money borrowing as you do so at 3% while your cash equivalent is returning 5%

After 10 years, mortgage is paid, your tenant pays you rent every month and the value of your apartment is probably 150k now. You have made 150k out of nowhere without putting any of your money and these 150k generate you a nice return and if you’re still unhappy with it you can just sell.

This completely make sense financially. Sure there would be unforeseen events (maintenance, tenant not paying etc) but statistically and mathematically this is a no brainer (assuming you do some research on the location etc)

michaeljc70
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by michaeljc70 » Sun May 24, 2020 7:43 am

boogiehead wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:32 am
helloyou wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm
Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....

Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.

Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years. The rent pays for your mortgage. Meanwhile your money passively invested in S&P500 returns 5%, that’s called leverage.

It’s a all win situation.

1) You have not taken any of your own money
2) The tenant is practically paying for your mortgage
3) You are actually making money borrowing as you do so at 3% while your cash equivalent is returning 5%

After 10 years, mortgage is paid, your tenant pays you rent every month and the value of your apartment is probably 150k now. You have made 150k out of nowhere without putting any of your money and these 150k generate you a nice return and if you’re still unhappy with it you can just sell.

This completely make sense financially. Sure there would be unforeseen events (maintenance, tenant not paying etc) but statistically and mathematically this is a no brainer (assuming you do some research on the location etc)
I think that's what the real estate "schools" teach you.... if it was only that easy :D
+1. Who can get a mortgage on a rental with no money down?

WJW
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by WJW » Sun May 24, 2020 7:57 am

HomerJ wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 12:57 am
WJW wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 5:30 am
I vet my tenants well and never had any problems with it.
How does one "vet" their tenants for a possible Great Depression?

Someone can have a great credit score, good work history, and still lose a decent-paying job if their employer goes bankrupt.

Did you screen all your tenants ahead of time to make sure they had jobs that could be done from home? That's some excellent foresight...
One cannot "vet" a tenant for a Great Depression. A Great Depression is unlikely given the Feds ability to create money at will to prop up the economy. If a recession happens ones stock portfolio will also be on a downward trajectory. People will always need a place to live and my apartments are less expensive than homeownership.

None of my tenants lost their jobs and some are on Social Security, so they have a guaranteed income. And if they did lose their jobs, not only would they be collecting unemployment but they would also be receiving an additional $600 per week from the Cares Act, which would easily have covered their rent.

Again, the properties are not my only investment and I could afford to have them completely vacant for many years to ride out any storms that may come. Real estate is not for everyone but it worked for me, others mileage and desires may vary.

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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by abuss368 » Sun May 24, 2020 8:03 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:43 am
boogiehead wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 2:32 am
helloyou wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 11:25 pm
Something a lot of people are missing is that the tenant actually pays for your mortgage....

Let’s say you buy a 100k apartment which you can rent for 8k a year.

Instead of putting your own money, you take a mortgage at 3% for 10 years. The rent pays for your mortgage. Meanwhile your money passively invested in S&P500 returns 5%, that’s called leverage.

It’s a all win situation.

1) You have not taken any of your own money
2) The tenant is practically paying for your mortgage
3) You are actually making money borrowing as you do so at 3% while your cash equivalent is returning 5%

After 10 years, mortgage is paid, your tenant pays you rent every month and the value of your apartment is probably 150k now. You have made 150k out of nowhere without putting any of your money and these 150k generate you a nice return and if you’re still unhappy with it you can just sell.

This completely make sense financially. Sure there would be unforeseen events (maintenance, tenant not paying etc) but statistically and mathematically this is a no brainer (assuming you do some research on the location etc)
I think that's what the real estate "schools" teach you.... if it was only that easy :D
+1. Who can get a mortgage on a rental with no money down?
Robert Allen! Look him up with “No Money Down”
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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AerialWombat
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by AerialWombat » Sun May 24, 2020 8:11 am

.....
Last edited by AerialWombat on Thu May 28, 2020 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

michaeljc70
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by michaeljc70 » Sun May 24, 2020 8:15 am

AerialWombat wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:43 am
+1. Who can get a mortgage on a rental with no money down?
It *is* possible. My first two rentals, a duplex and a SFR, are still financed on VA loans that I obtained with no money down. I lived in each property for over a year in order to do so.
That isn't getting a no money down mortgage on a rental. You got an owner occupied mortgage and then you converted the property to a rental.
Last edited by michaeljc70 on Sun May 24, 2020 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

reln
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by reln » Sun May 24, 2020 8:16 am

AerialWombat wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:11 am
michaeljc70 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 7:43 am
+1. Who can get a mortgage on a rental with no money down?
It *is* possible. My first two rentals, a duplex and a SFR, are still financed on VA loans that I obtained with no money down. I lived in each property for over a year in order to do so.
VA loans have to be refinanced to legally be rented out. Primary VA loans are intended for primary residence, not for rental properties.

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AerialWombat
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by AerialWombat » Sun May 24, 2020 8:20 am

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AerialWombat
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by AerialWombat » Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am

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Noobvestor
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Noobvestor » Sun May 24, 2020 9:33 am

gr7070 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 pm
A single property can fail more more easily than the entire real estate sector.
Does it though? Really? Ignoring tenant risk, which is where I think most of the risk occurs. Of course just stripping out that risk is unfair, but I'm curious what folks think of real estate values. Other than the recession and the depression when has real estate taken significant losses nationwide? And even the recession isn't a great example. In most states RE held up reasonably well. It was largely the sand-states and Detroit that experienced significant losses. Property values rarely have had significant drops. Unlike equity bear markets that occur frequently and multiple with massive losses across the board. The real concern is the tenants.
Huh. I don't see tenants are the real concern - I'm talking about the bigger risks of a property. The neighborhood around it can change, or the whole city - e.g. Detroit, many other industrial cities that thrived during the 20th century until they didn't. Then there are the building-specific issues, like one corner settling strangely and requiring an entire structural overhaul, or something else disastrous but not covered by insurance. What if the area gets rezoned, or the property is now located in a floodplain according to FEMA? There are more building-specific risks than I can count - these are just ones coming from someone who knows some homeowners and a few building owner landlords (and off the top of my head).

But setting aside the specifics, let's get general: this is why we hold stock and bond indexes. A single company can fail its stock or bond holders, and that's a much more robust and expensive operation. A single home or building? So many ways for that to go wrong. I get it that for some people this is a business - so they take their risks and hopefully do their due diligence and luck out into a growing rather than shrinking market. I think it was on Bogleheads recently that a landlord posted he was confident b/c his staple renters were college students in a particular town. What happens when that college closes for a year due to the pandemic, or worse: shuts its doors entirely (a few colleges already have)? Anyway, getting back to the comparison: there are idiosyncratic risks we generally try to avoid through diversification, at least on the investing side. Someone who goes in eyes-open and says 'this is a business, and it might work or might fail' - well, power to them. I do hope folks know enough to take money out of the business as profits and invest it wisely, as they would with other ventures, but otherwise ... *shrug*

Anyway - I, too, am curious as to what other forum members think about all of this, but to me, a few bad tenants causing a bit of damage or failing to pay for a few months seems like an incredibly minor concern compared to building issues and overall local/regional trends and changes.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

reln
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by reln » Sun May 24, 2020 3:57 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am
reln wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:16 am
VA loans have to be refinanced to legally be rented out.
This is absolutely incorrect. The property needs to be owner occupied for a minimum of one year under the terms of the mortgage, and it can be converted to a rental afterwards. No refi is required. There are hundreds of thousands of rental properties in the US financed on VA loans in this manner.
https://militarybenefits.info/renting-va-home-loan/

Wricha
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Wricha » Sun May 24, 2020 4:13 pm

Reits and being in the real estate business are not synonymous. You can develop real estate you can also change the nature of the property by making improvements, pull cash out for other opportunities, control expenses.

These are things that are not generally available to reits Investors (they get the rent after fees)

bugleheadd
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by bugleheadd » Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm

With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.

barberakb
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by barberakb » Sun May 24, 2020 5:11 pm

reln wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 3:57 pm
AerialWombat wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:24 am
reln wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 8:16 am
VA loans have to be refinanced to legally be rented out.
This is absolutely incorrect. The property needs to be owner occupied for a minimum of one year under the terms of the mortgage, and it can be converted to a rental afterwards. No refi is required. There are hundreds of thousands of rental properties in the US financed on VA loans in this manner.
https://militarybenefits.info/renting-va-home-loan/
That is a website, not the VA. I have rented 2 of my homes that I purchased as a primary home, then got ordered to move and have rented them out ever since. So the VA is going to force everyone who is Ordered to move to refinance or sell their home? Good luck with that.

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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by TropikThunder » Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm

bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.

michaeljc70
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by michaeljc70 » Sun May 24, 2020 5:26 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.
Regardless of Coronavirus, millions of Americans are evicted every year regardless if some guy on Bogleheads posts about it. I'm not saying that rentals are bad, but they are not always a sure thing.

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willthrill81
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun May 24, 2020 5:35 pm

AerialWombat wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:46 pm
Being a landlord is an active business, and needs to be treated like one. For folks that don’t want to run a business, they are better off in REITs if they want a real estate tilt.
Bingo. Many seem to treat rental real estate almost like an apples-to-apples comparison to owning stocks, maybe apples-to-oranges. From what I've seen and heard from many who own rental real estate, it's more like apples-to-hamburgers. Both can satisfy an investor's need for returns, but their composition, risks, tax treatment, needed investment, market knowledge, level of involvement, etc. are not remotely on par. That doesn't make one superior to the other, but it makes comparing them very tenuous at best.

This thread could just as easily be titled "Why are you NOT running a hair care salon?"
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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willthrill81
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by willthrill81 » Sun May 24, 2020 5:37 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:26 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.
Regardless of Coronavirus, millions of Americans are evicted every year regardless if some guy on Bogleheads posts about it. I'm not saying that rentals are bad, but they are not always a sure thing.
"Life is pain, highness. Anyone who tells you differently is selling something."
- William Goldman, The Princess Bride
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

barberakb
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by barberakb » Sun May 24, 2020 6:24 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.
Maybe you just dont read enough. I posted in this thread just last month that I had only collected 70% of my rent. Today everyone has paid in full. Just because you might not believe it, doesn't make it false.

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AerialWombat
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by AerialWombat » Sun May 24, 2020 10:48 pm

.....
Last edited by AerialWombat on Thu May 28, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

gr7070
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by gr7070 » Mon May 25, 2020 12:44 pm

Noobvestor wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 9:33 am
gr7070 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:52 pm
Noobvestor wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 7:30 pm
A single property can fail more more easily than the entire real estate sector.
Does it though? Really? ...
... - I'm talking about the bigger risks of a property.

The neighborhood around it can change

or the whole city - e.g. Detroit, many other industrial cities that thrived during the 20th century until they didn't.

Then there are the building-specific issues, like one corner settling strangely and requiring an entire structural overhaul

or something else disastrous but not covered by insurance. What if the area gets rezoned, or the property is now located in a floodplain according to FEMA? There are more building-specific risks than I can count - these are just ones coming from someone who knows some homeowners and a few building owner landlords (and off the top of my head).

let's get general: this is why we hold stock and bond indexes. A single company can fail its stock or bond holders, and that's a much more robust and expensive operation. A single home or building? So many ways for that to go wrong.

I get it that for some people this is a business - so they take their risks and hopefully do their due diligence and luck out into a growing rather than shrinking market. I think it was on Bogleheads recently that a landlord posted he was confident b/c his staple renters were college students in a particular town.

Anyway - I, too, am curious as to what other forum members think about all of this,
I think a lot of those specific risks are easily mitigated. Buy a home in the suburbs. Buy an established home that's had time to show foundation issues, etc.

Most suburban neighborhoods don't change drastically. They almost never do so overnight.

Zoning? Established suburban neighborhoods don't often get rezoned for crazy differences. Even if so, the degradation of the neighborhood isn't sudden.

Heck get out of the shrinking North. Buy in the South where more people want to live.

A lot of the singular risks are easily mitigated or easily responded to.

You think tenant risk isn't that great. I don't think it's huge, either, but I think it's worse than my suburban neighborhoods dropping significant value in a short time, if at all.

There's also been almost no significant national market risk through modern history.

Sounds like many Boglehead's natural risk aversion over emphasizes all the RE risks.

gr7070
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by gr7070 » Mon May 25, 2020 12:59 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.
I've been fortunate so far to be 100% paid. I'm prepared to weather months of no payment, as well, with months of retained earnings from RE.

Just like market investing there are ways to mitigate the risks of RE investing. Doesn't make it a sure thing, just like financial markets. However, it makes the risks tolerable and the rewards attainable.

Additionally, looks like the statistics are highly favorable for rent collected, and not that different from a year ago.
tomtoms wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:15 pm
By April 19, 89% of American rental households made a full or partial payment toward their monthly rent. Analyzed through the National Multifamily Housing Council’s rent payment tracker of 11.5 million professionally managed units, that figure accounts for a payment rate of 95% compared to the same time last month, when 93% of tenants had paid rent. It also lags only slightly behind rent collection for the same period a year ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dimawillia ... 33a2c52685
Don't think this is just one month of good rent collection. May is also good:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020 ... s-908.html
[/quote]

reasonable
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by reasonable » Mon May 25, 2020 5:34 pm

I am not buying rental houses and am selling all my rental properties because I am tired of doing the work, have made plenty of money and want to simply my life and work less. I don't trust any property management companies for the type of properties I own could do nearly as good as job as me, and the costs they currently ask for management and repairs would kill my profit margins. I am happy to roll the dice with a Vanguard sp500 fund and just let dividend checks roll in! Some new landlord gets to work their ass off now! When I factor in the hours involved, rate of return, appreciation, risk, etc. over 12 years as a landlord I am please with my returns.

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7th_Diagram
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by 7th_Diagram » Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm

Because I already have a job.
"You have to understand, most people are not ready to be unplugged,and many of them are so injured, so hopelessly dependent upon the system, that they will fight to protect it." | ~Morpheus

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tomtoms
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by tomtoms » Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am

7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.

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HomerJ
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by HomerJ » Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm

tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am
7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

stoptothink
Posts: 7621
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by stoptothink » Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm
tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am
7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.

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tomtoms
Posts: 193
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by tomtoms » Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am

stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm
tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am
7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?

onourway
Posts: 2466
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by onourway » Thu May 28, 2020 6:05 am

tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am
stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm
tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am
7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?
Pretty much by definition the vast majority of folks on this board are far above average.

Most people will find far more success by putting their extra energy into performing better in their career vs. pouring it into a side hustle.

ponyboy
Posts: 904
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by ponyboy » Thu May 28, 2020 6:14 am

In before the thread lock in 3...2...1....

michaeljc70
Posts: 6633
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by michaeljc70 » Thu May 28, 2020 6:17 am

gr7070 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:59 pm
TropikThunder wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:16 pm
bugleheadd wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 4:17 pm
With coronavirus, more and more people are late with rental payments and landlords will have a hard time collecting and evicting. Imagine being a landlord in nyc, the tenants have more rights than the landlord. It takes over a year or two to evict and good luck getting any payments.
Amazingly though, not one BH rental investor has one of those tenants.
I've been fortunate so far to be 100% paid. I'm prepared to weather months of no payment, as well, with months of retained earnings from RE.

Just like market investing there are ways to mitigate the risks of RE investing. Doesn't make it a sure thing, just like financial markets. However, it makes the risks tolerable and the rewards attainable.

Additionally, looks like the statistics are highly favorable for rent collected, and not that different from a year ago.
tomtoms wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 3:15 pm
By April 19, 89% of American rental households made a full or partial payment toward their monthly rent. Analyzed through the National Multifamily Housing Council’s rent payment tracker of 11.5 million professionally managed units, that figure accounts for a payment rate of 95% compared to the same time last month, when 93% of tenants had paid rent. It also lags only slightly behind rent collection for the same period a year ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dimawillia ... 33a2c52685
Don't think this is just one month of good rent collection. May is also good:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020 ... s-908.html

The figures quoted are only a subset of rentals (not even 1/4).

I read that 2/3rds of the people on unemployment are getting more money than when they were working so why would they be late or not pay? The $600 weekly bonus ends at the end of July though. There is no way unemployment levels will return to normal by July. I am not a doomsayer and don't know what the ultimate impact will be, but this isn't over.

stoptothink
Posts: 7621
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by stoptothink » Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 am

tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am
stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm
tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am
7th_Diagram wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 8:35 pm
Because I already have a job.
Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?
There are very few posters on this board who are financially "average", and my family is not in the small subset. This very board is about people with regular 9-5 jobs who have become wealthy with a very simple investing strategy.

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tomtoms
Posts: 193
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by tomtoms » Thu May 28, 2020 9:48 am

stoptothink wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 am
tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am
stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm
tomtoms wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 10:07 am


Having just 9-5 job is not going to get you far. You have to go the extra mile. It doesn’t have to be rental properties. It could also be a side hustle or whatever you want. The point is...don’t depend on a job.
This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?
There are very few posters on this board who are financially "average", and my family is not in the small subset. This very board is about people with regular 9-5 jobs who have become wealthy with a very simple investing strategy.
Nearly 40 millions have lost their job since this pandemic. Many will need to restart at the bottom of the ladder.

Hasn’t the Great Recession taught us anything? Corporations don’t care about you. Having multiple source of income is the key.

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HomerJ
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by HomerJ » Thu May 28, 2020 10:12 am

tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:48 am
stoptothink wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 am
tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am
stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:43 pm


This is incorrect. You should get a better 9-5 job.
This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?
There are very few posters on this board who are financially "average", and my family is not in the small subset. This very board is about people with regular 9-5 jobs who have become wealthy with a very simple investing strategy.
Nearly 40 millions have lost their job since this pandemic. Many will need to restart at the bottom of the ladder.

Hasn’t the Great Recession taught us anything? Corporations don’t care about you. Having multiple source of income is the key.
Having multiple liabilities is a detriment during a recession. If renters stop paying, you not only lose a source of income, but you still have to pay a mortgage and insurance and property taxes and repairs.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Topic Author
tomtoms
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:56 pm

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by tomtoms » Thu May 28, 2020 10:48 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 10:12 am
tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:48 am
stoptothink wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 9:03 am
tomtoms wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 3:59 am
stoptothink wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 7:59 pm


This board is dominated by people who have done OK financially, without a side hustle.
why be average?
There are very few posters on this board who are financially "average", and my family is not in the small subset. This very board is about people with regular 9-5 jobs who have become wealthy with a very simple investing strategy.
Nearly 40 millions have lost their job since this pandemic. Many will need to restart at the bottom of the ladder.

Hasn’t the Great Recession taught us anything? Corporations don’t care about you. Having multiple source of income is the key.
Having multiple liabilities is a detriment during a recession. If renters stop paying, you not only lose a source of income, but you still have to pay a mortgage and insurance and property taxes and repairs.
Then why put money in the stock market? That is just more liability!

Maverick3320
Posts: 552
Joined: Tue May 12, 2015 2:59 pm

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by Maverick3320 » Thu May 28, 2020 11:46 am

OP,

Since starting this thread you've posted dozens of pithy one-liners in response to questions. Why not just put all the doubters in their place and open up your books? Show all the ignoramuses out there the spreadsheet you've used to track all your real estate expenses and revenues back to the time you bought your first property.

Topic Author
tomtoms
Posts: 193
Joined: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:56 pm

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by tomtoms » Thu May 28, 2020 12:19 pm

Maverick3320 wrote:
Thu May 28, 2020 11:46 am
OP,

Since starting this thread you've posted dozens of pithy one-liners in response to questions. Why not just put all the doubters in their place and open up your books? Show all the ignoramuses out there the spreadsheet you've used to track all your real estate expenses and revenues back to the time you bought your first property.
Do you doubt that people make money from real estate?

You mean the spreadsheet that I put together? That is the conclusive evidence you need?

Look, I am not here to tell everyone they should invest in real estate. Most people are not able to buy a second home so they do not have the resources to do real estate investing. But for those who can, I can tell you it is not as hard as you think.

I have a unique perspective that is very different from most people here. In addition to owning rental properties, I have a regular 9-5 job. I also own stocks and a business. I am not saying this to impress you but to give you an idea where I am coming from. I can tell you real estate investing is by far easier than working at a 9-5 job and starting a business. It also offers stability that stocks do not, as long as you buy cash flow properties and put away 20% of rent toward vacancy and repairs.

arsenalfan
Posts: 828
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Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Post by arsenalfan » Thu May 28, 2020 12:22 pm

I have rentals. I have a 9-5. Rentals are a good diversifier, but not a huge panacea.

Most BH are LBYM save and invest. Most RE BiggerPockets/FIRE/etc are leverage leverage leverage ("I got 40 doors in 40 months!"). In between are the folks quietly dabbling in accidental or intentional landlording.

Rentals are a second job. Sure you can outsource it, but it's pretty manageable with the correct sytems and you can save $$$. I have a buy/hold/rent with eye towards generating $10k per month net when they're paid off in 7 years.

I did exit a property after 6 years (was bought as part of a 4-person LLC). With depreciation recapture the IRR was about 6% net of taxes.

Pandemic-wise, it has been a time of treading water. Our "bulletproof" VHCOL college campus rentals are now 33% vacant since summer semester cancelled. We'll see about the Fall. But loans on hold, and we carry 12 months rental EF, so that's fine.
Last edited by arsenalfan on Thu May 28, 2020 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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