Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

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bottlecap
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bottlecap » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:22 pm

I disagree that it's so clear cut you can afford a $75k vehicle. One market downturn and all your nice looking figures are gone. You could be close to 50, have a $350k paid off house, a sub $600k retirement fund, and no job.

Then that $75k car is going to feel like a bad decision.

At least that's what would keep me up at night.

But in the end, buying a car like that for $75k is always more an emotional decision than a financial one.

JT

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:22 pm
I disagree that it's so clear cut you can afford a $75k vehicle. One market downturn and all your nice looking figures are gone. You could be close to 50, have a $350k paid off house, a sub $600k retirement fund, and no job.

Then that $75k car is going to feel like a bad decision.

At least that's what would keep me up at night.

But in the end, buying a car like that for $75k is always more an emotional decision than a financial one.

JT
This is the Boglehead reply I was looking for. "The Starks are always right, eventually... Winter is coming."

I've not had a car payment in.... I can't remember, and I paid off my home not quite 12 months ago. I'm not used to owing money of any kind other than a couple thousand here or there I rack up in monthly credit card spend.

psmoove
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by psmoove » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:05 pm

I’m in nearly the same boat. I am evaluating the “base” RWD Model 3. I am 41, $2.2M in investable assets, $430K mortgage, $900K house worth, $240K household income and 3 kids. I’m currently driving a 2012 Toyota Camry and looking to liven things up a bit (guess I am at that age). We also have a 2016 Toyota Sienna and a gas guzzling 2008 Nissan Pathfinder V8 that my wife drives to work, 10 miles round trip every day.

I calculated the 5 year Total Cost of Ownership of the Model 3 (without AutoPilot and base wheels/color) to be $31,800 here in CA, taking into account the $10,000 EV federal and state rebates, the fuel savings (free charging for me at work) and the selling price of the Nissan. Insurance ends up being a wash with the SUV.

I think I’m going to pull the trigger before the end of the year. Retirement/HSAs are maxed out, I will also have a pension at 55, and 529s are funded. What got me interested in the car is that both my best friend and brother in law purchased Model 3s in the last couple of months, and I didn’t want to keep the V8 SUV any longer.

Atilla
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Atilla » Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:24 pm

Zero to 60 in 3.5 seconds is getting close to Yamaha VMAX territory. I have a VMAX so I know what that's like.

Get the Model 3. :twisted:
The Village Idiot - here for your entertainment.

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bottlecap
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bottlecap » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:37 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:36 pm
bottlecap wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:22 pm
I disagree that it's so clear cut you can afford a $75k vehicle. One market downturn and all your nice looking figures are gone. You could be close to 50, have a $350k paid off house, a sub $600k retirement fund, and no job.

Then that $75k car is going to feel like a bad decision.

At least that's what would keep me up at night.

But in the end, buying a car like that for $75k is always more an emotional decision than a financial one.

JT
This is the Boglehead reply I was looking for. "The Starks are always right, eventually... Winter is coming."

I've not had a car payment in.... I can't remember, and I paid off my home not quite 12 months ago. I'm not used to owing money of any kind other than a couple thousand here or there I rack up in monthly credit card spend.
I didn’t say anything about owing money. My perspective is from a time to retirement standpoint.

The OP is giving us his asset totals after a long bull market and a reinflated housing market. He tells us nothing of his expenses.

You are sure, where I am not.

In the end, my perspective is just as invalid as yours.

JT

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8foot7
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by 8foot7 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:52 pm

Cycle wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:04 pm
Seems like a lot of money to be spending on a personal vehicle. I'd divert that money to retirement savings. Self driving fleets are coming very soon.
Op is 45 with no debt, paid off home, and a million bucks outside of car purchase. Buy the car.

Smoke
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Smoke » Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:59 pm

It's a machine, a toaster, a blender, a glorified lawn mower.
Gets you from point a to point b.
How many hours per day will you "live" in it.
Fearing the car parked next to you in a parking lot as the totally careless person swings open their door and bangs into yours.

You are going to buy it anyway, we are... impressed.

Pete3
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Pete3 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:48 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm
So... am I crazy?
Fellow Model 3 owner here since June (RWD) - love the car and absolutely no problems as delivered or since then.

Get the car, you can afford it and you will absolutely love it. New software update is being rolled out now (v9) to add a bunch of new features. The car keeps getting better and better.

Pete3
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Pete3 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:51 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:01 pm
OP- There is no doubt you can afford a model 3. I'd recommend a model S if you are going to buy a Tesla.

But, Tesla will enter bankruptcy before the calendar reaches 2019. No doubt about it. If you're okay with that, buy the car. Enjoy it man.
How much do you want to bet? Or more importantly, how many puts do you already own - because if this is a sure-thing then you should be able to retire with a leveraged short position. Good luck with that.

WyomingFIRE
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by WyomingFIRE » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:56 pm

I'll play.

I'd look at it from the opportunity cost perspective.

For $75K, for example, you could purchase 47% of a parcel* with access to one of the greatest fly fishing rivers in the Lower 48, and less than an hour away from the Miracle Mile: https://www.landleader.com/land-for-sal ... -platte-40. YouTube has a ton of great videos of folks fly fishing the Miracle Mile and Grey Reef. You'd just need to find a fly fishing buddy willing to put up the other 53%. You presumably would also need a tent.

*This is not a solicitation, nor do I own the aforementioned parcel. I merely Googled something like "What can you get for $75K in the Cowboy State with access to fly fishing."

For the record, I've made it to my mid 50's without ever owning a new vehicle. My current pick-up is a 2009 Tacoma (purchased used); before that, I put 15 years and about 350,000 miles on a 4-Runner.

sambb
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by sambb » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:07 pm

Go on line and look how long it takes to get parts if someone even has the tiniest minor accident with you. there is no strong supply chain. good luck!

MrBeaver
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by MrBeaver » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:10 pm

If I were ever to want to drop 75k on a car, I would demand more physical controls than a few steering wheel buttons. I can’t fathom flying down the freeway and having to take my eyes off the road to adjust the climate controls and audio settings.

If you’re interested in electric and like Audi, it might make sense to see how their offerings shake out:

https://www.audiusa.com/technology/efficiency/e-tron

Starfish
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Starfish » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm

My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D

Slacker
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Slacker » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm

Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:

samta09
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by samta09 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 pm

steve50 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:45 pm
First of all Tesla is a non-boglehead approved car ($$). But if you can afford it and not stretching yourself financially, I would highly recommend it to anyone.

Buying Tesla 3 has been one of my best purchase ever. It is worth every penny I spent on it. I have owned Japanese and German car before, but Tesla is completely different. Even after few months of owning it, I still have that big smile on my face and that wow factor every time I see it and ride the car. I test drove other cars in the same price range+, but no other car comes even close.

Ignore all the negative news you see out there. There are lot of big money games being played by wall street to manipulate the stock price and they have way of controlling the news you see out there.
Which version did you get?

samta09
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by samta09 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:31 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:17 pm
209south wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:09 pm
I am picking up my Model 3 later this week, but am getting the mid-range version - $55k with dual-motors, 0-60 in 4.6s, 310mile range - that is same price and performance as an S4 (my current car) before considering rebate and NJ sales tax waiver. To repeat, THE MODEL 3 IS CHEAPER TO BUY than it's best comp (the S4) before considering massive fuel and maintenance savings. The high-performance version you are looking at comps to the RS4 or similar, not the S4. Tesla cars are the highest-rated, best-performing, safest cars on the road. The probability of them going bankrupt is de minimus, and if it happened every car company in the world (+ google and apple) would compete to pick up the pieces with zero disruption - Musk isn't perfect, but neither were Jobs or Branson, they just happen to be visionaries disrupting massive businesses.
Were you able to compare the Performance version
against the mid-range version you're buying? I would have liked to have test driven each but the Tesla store near me - perhaps conveniently - only had the top-line Performance/Performance version available. If I knew for sure I'd be satisfied with the $55K version this thread wouldn't even be here and the car would be on order already. I'm just trying to justify the extra expense to make it go 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. It's stupid and irrational, but then again, so is anything beyond a Corolla or a Prius, right?
I drove the RWD first and thought it was awesome, then they let me drove the Performance and I was totally sold on the Performance. No words can describe the experience unless you experience it yourself. I highly recommend someone who are in the market for S4 or M3 to test drive P3D.

The naysayers said the same thing when the S and X came out.....

As for me, I have to tone it down and will get the RWD. I believe it’s still way better than most ICEs. I’m saving the difference to get a replacement car for DW in a few years. Financially, it’s hardly make any sense to get a Tesla. Maybe it’ll make more financial sense when the standard range becomes available. However, the fun factor, the forward thinking approach, and that awesome feeling when you’re driving in it just make you want to put your financial sense on the back burner.

Get it if it doesn’t ding your pocket. Wish I couldn bring myself to a P3D...

StarTrekFan
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by StarTrekFan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:39 pm

We leased Fiat 500e and Spark EV. Own an Infiniti G37 ; had Audi A4 in the past.

We now own the Model 3 since April

You'll be happy and fine with the LongRange Model 3.

You'll be happier in the Performance Model 3 if you really enjoy driving and putting your car through the paces like a BMW 3series-M.

All depends on what you want to do. As a Boglehead, the $15k extra isn't buying THAT much of a nicer car that you won't enjoy putting the car around the corner and accelerating up the freeway ramp. If you want to drag out that loaded BMW or Sports Cars --- yeah, get the performance.

Zonian59
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Zonian59 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:55 pm

Gee, I thought the Bogleheads were frugal and practical.
Telsa's always impressed me as more hype and extravagant.
If you want an EV, how about a Toyota Prius Plug-In or Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt? :)

JGoneRiding
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by JGoneRiding » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:58 pm

You have no kids, you are old enough to likely stay that way. You have a cool mil in the bank you seem to like your work enough that early retirement isn't your goal, therefore buy what ever production car you want. Just realize it's a toy and don't try to justify it .

Do take the time to really think it through though, buying the car isn't an issue selling the car at tremendous loss to buy another toy would be.

JackoC
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by JackoC » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:25 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:56 pm

This is all another part of my conundrum. What happens after the company that built my $70K toy goes BK?

A part of me thinks someone - maybe the Chinese, maybe Apple, maybe GM, whoever- would scoop up the assets and keep the party going. Maybe that's just me being naive or overly optimistic. I think the thing to remember here is that *if* they go BK, it wouldn't be because they're building a crappy product that nobody's buying. Model 3s are popping up all over the place. After test driving one, I completely understand why. The product stands on its own merit and people want them. Alas, I'll stop now before this gets into a heated political discussion...
Yeah I think the company going bust is a serious worry if you're concentrated in the stock, less so if you buy one of the cars. The established car makers are coming for Tesla, but they are not there yet in basic system performance. Even the Tesla-killers people talk about, aren't quite equal even on paper. And cars aren't all about paper performance anyway. You can thrive as a car maker with subtle differentiation that means something to *enough* consumers (not all consumers, not people who don't care about cars, but enough people do).

Somebody will very likely IMO buy up that company if it fails at building those cars fast and cheaply enough within the amount of leeway the financial markets are willing to give. Not so unlikely Tesla the company will fail, but quite unlikely IMO the cars will end up 'ophans' and even if so the failure to build in them in mass numbers might make them collector's items. :D

Note: I'm an internal combustion guy, and even if I wasn't I'd have to run an extension cord across the sidewalk to charge an electric car, the maybe few hours a week I could get a parking space right outside my house. Completely impractical for me, I also love long road trips including remote places, I like the sound and feel of IC. But Tesla produces a product people want, for reasons I can understand though don't share, and the corporate problems wouldn't be a big deal for me if I were one of those people. Getting a Leaf? I struggle harder to understand that :D but it takes all kinds obviously.

Starfish
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Starfish » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 pm

Slacker wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:
Still not possible. Saving 80k per year in the last 10 years won't even bring you close, but you cannot save 80 while driving a 911.
We make few times more than 160k, the kid is cheap (public school, maybe 1000$ a year insurance, food 100$?, say 5000$ more in plane tickets and after school care), my NW is similar with yours but distributed a little differently, we are few years yonger, but I wouldn't even dream of buying any car more expensive than 25k. In this price range I get enough fun. Mazda Miata, Golf GTI are 2 good examples.
If I stared with a 911 several years ago I would have much less.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:54 pm

Slacker wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:
+997

randomguy
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by randomguy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:20 pm

Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 pm
Slacker wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:
Still not possible. Saving 80k per year in the last 10 years won't even bring you close, but you cannot save 80 while driving a 911.
We make few times more than 160k, the kid is cheap (public school, maybe 1000$ a year insurance, food 100$?, say 5000$ more in plane tickets and after school care), my NW is similar with yours but distributed a little differently, we are few years yonger, but I wouldn't even dream of buying any car more expensive than 25k. In this price range I get enough fun. Mazda Miata, Golf GTI are 2 good examples.
If I stared with a 911 several years ago I would have much less.
45. That is 20 years of savings. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... arket1=100

doesn't look unreasonable. Obviously exact salary progression matters along with things like 401(k) matches (could be an extra 5k/year) and bonuses (turns out he gets another 50k). Buying a 200k house and watching it go to 600k over 15 years also helps the networth:) Nothing about these numbers scream crazy to me. Doing it with a 911? Sure as long it is one of your only splurges. Some people spend 6k/year on trips or fancy apartments. OP may have spent it on a car upgrade.


I think you should buy the tesla. It is up to you if it is worth spending 10k more to cut 1s off your 0-60 time. In the end 30k or whatever premium you pay over getting a 40k car isn't going to make or break your retirement. You just have to figure out if spending it on a car instead of something else will maximize your enjoyment of life.

Starfish
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Starfish » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:25 pm

My assumption is that if he has 160k at 45, he had maybe half of that 10 years ago and less at 25.
But yes, the power of compounding. Good job!

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wabbajack
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by wabbajack » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:28 pm

pennylane wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:38 pm
OP - You can afford the car. What is your goal? To be the richest man at the graveyard?
+1
You don't need financial advice. You need an enabler. That would be me. Go buy the car and make yourself happy.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:57 pm

OP here. Let me clarify a couple things.

Porsche 911s don't cost that much to own if you buy them used (as I did). After four years, the worst part of the depreciation curve is over. If you can do your own basic maintenance (again as I did) they don't cost much to keep on the road. 997s in particular are robust mechanically and don't break down much. They're also surprisingly cheap to insure: they're mostly driven by old men to the weekly PCA chapter pancake breakfasts. Insurance companies know this.

The 911 was a fun car, but now it's gone. I got it out of my system. I want to go back to a sedan because I value the practicality and as I mentioned previously, I want something big enough to carry my mountain bike inside the car with the rear seats folded. I used to do that all the time with the car I drove before I bought the Porsche. I was all ready to buy a nicely depreciated used Audi when all of a sudden, Tesla came along and totally blew my mind.

There aren't any secrets as to how my nest egg grew to the size it is as my age. No kids, compound interest, a (smallish) lucky break back in the dot-com boom days to give me a kick start and years of (mostly) diligent savings and regular 401K/IRA contributions. The last few years in particular have been pretty good due to market gains, salary increases and the elimination of my mortgage, every dollar of which was redirected into Vanguard ETFs. Did I mention I have no kids? BTW, I think my savings are pretty modest compared to some other folks I've seen here!

I originally posted trying to get an feel for what the Boglehead sentiment is regarding a person of my age, income and savings buying an expensive car. I think I have my answer. The only question now is... what color should I get? :twisted:

ProfWengen
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by ProfWengen » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:39 am

I'd be wary of any car manufacturer that thought it was a good idea to do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqHcEA2hGY4

EnjoyIt
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by EnjoyIt » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:42 am

I am a car guy. I love cars and enjoy taking them to the track. I get the desire for speed but think jumping into a $75K car is adding significant lifestyle creep on one of the worst expenses that can affect wealth building. $75k is half a year’s salary. More if you consider taxes. Follow your previous pathway and at the very least buy them used and let someone else take the $30k depreciation hit.

What are your goals? Do you want to retire early? How important a is a Tesla compared to extra years of working full time? How stable is your income and is it worth to be financially independent sooner rather than later based on the trajectory of your career?

Personally I think dropping $75K on a car for someone who makes $160K a year and isn’t at the very least almost financially independent a fiscal mistake.

grokzilla
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by grokzilla » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:27 am

Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 pm
Slacker wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:
Still not possible. Saving 80k per year in the last 10 years won't even bring you close, but you cannot save 80 while driving a 911.
We make few times more than 160k, the kid is cheap (public school, maybe 1000$ a year insurance, food 100$?, say 5000$ more in plane tickets and after school care), my NW is similar with yours but distributed a little differently, we are few years yonger, but I wouldn't even dream of buying any car more expensive than 25k. In this price range I get enough fun. Mazda Miata, Golf GTI are 2 good examples.
If I stared with a 911 several years ago I would have much less.
Not entirely sure which planet you live on, but here on Earth...kids are most definitely NOT cheap. How you're able feed your children on $100 per year is impressive though it may also merit a child welfare visit :) ...heck I'm lucky if mine don't eat a $100 bill every meal.

Glad to hear you insure your kids...for accidental starvation perhaps? $5k for airfare AND after school care is fascinating. The last time one of mine was in after school care it was nearly triple that amount...and they didn't even include airfare!!! Then again it sounds like your "care" is a hoop with a stick and the backyard. My 95 yr old Nana has always maintained that hoops and sticks are quite fun!

Its cool that you keep your kids naked, but most parents prefer to cloth their children. Its kinda expensive because for some dumb reason they are continually changing size... Yours are probably too weak to move much, but ours engage in extracurricular activities quite frequently...universally expensive. They get allowances for doing chores...yet are terrible employees. They get hurt, get sick and constantly need something only RiteAid can give us. Then they start driving...not cheap. And dont even get me started with higher ed!!!

OP: Just get it. The ninnies and naysayers struggle with the enjoyment aspect of having money. You clearly have your head in the right space financially...its okay to indulge some vices.

Starfish
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Starfish » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:44 am

grokzilla wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:27 am
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:52 pm
Slacker wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:59 pm
Starfish wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:29 pm
My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D
The power of having no kids... :twisted:
Still not possible. Saving 80k per year in the last 10 years won't even bring you close, but you cannot save 80 while driving a 911.
We make few times more than 160k, the kid is cheap (public school, maybe 1000$ a year insurance, food 100$?, say 5000$ more in plane tickets and after school care), my NW is similar with yours but distributed a little differently, we are few years yonger, but I wouldn't even dream of buying any car more expensive than 25k. In this price range I get enough fun. Mazda Miata, Golf GTI are 2 good examples.
If I stared with a 911 several years ago I would have much less.
Not entirely sure which planet you live on, but here on Earth...kids are most definitely NOT cheap. How you're able feed your children on $100 per year is impressive though it may also merit a child welfare visit :) ...heck I'm lucky if mine don't eat a $100 bill every meal.

Glad to hear you insure your kids...for accidental starvation perhaps? $5k for airfare AND after school care is fascinating. The last time one of mine was in after school care it was nearly triple that amount...and they didn't even include airfare!!! Then again it sounds like your "care" is a hoop with a stick and the backyard. My 95 yr old Nana has always maintained that hoops and sticks are quite fun!

Its cool that you keep your kids naked, but most parents prefer to cloth their children. Its kinda expensive because for some dumb reason they are continually changing size... Yours are probably too weak to move much, but ours engage in extracurricular activities quite frequently...universally expensive. They get allowances for doing chores...yet are terrible employees. They get hurt, get sick and constantly need something only RiteAid can give us. Then they start driving...not cheap. And dont even get me started with higher ed!!!

OP: Just get it. The ninnies and naysayers struggle with the enjoyment aspect of having money. You clearly have your head in the right space financially...its okay to indulge some vices.
100$ for food is per month obviously. I don't think our differential in spending with and without kid is more than that. 100$ for a meal is nothing, I can definitely eat a 2000$ at a 3 star restaurant but I cannot go there daily, they won't let me even if I wanted. So we have to eat at home and cook.
Kids clothes are very cheap if you buy on sale but even that is not really necessary: and I have several friends with bigger kids, we get tons of clothes. More than he can wear.
The addition in Health insurance premium is probably 100$.
After school care for 3-4 hours (school finishes at 2) is my hood runs about 350$/month. It's provided by parks & recreation.
I am generally against organized sports but he goes to some class which is another 100$ and sometimes to swimming lessons (no use anyway, I don't include them). He is only 6, has no musical talent, no drawing talent. Our fun in mostly hiking, beach, park, skate park, pump track, biking, body boarding, traveling to Europe in the summer or south america/Caribbean/hawaii in the winter. Probably I cut a little from the plane tickets but I assumed that is not a mandatory thing.

I do understand that other ages can be more expensive. In my opinion excessive materialism towards kids doesn't do them any service.People just use kids as an excuse for spending too much.

PS: damn I forgot about skiing. Please add 400$ for the pass. No lessons though.

randomguy
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by randomguy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 am

Starfish wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:44 am


100$ for food is per month obviously. I don't think our differential in spending with and without kid is more than that. 100$ for a meal is nothing, I can definitely eat a 2000$ at a 3 star restaurant but I cannot go there daily, they won't let me even if I wanted. So we have to eat at home and cook.
Kids clothes are very cheap if you buy on sale but even that is not really necessary: and I have several friends with bigger kids, we get tons of clothes. More than he can wear.
The addition in Health insurance premium is probably 100$.
After school care for 3-4 hours (school finishes at 2) is my hood runs about 350$/month. It's provided by parks & recreation.
I am generally against organized sports but he goes to some class which is another 100$ and sometimes to swimming lessons (no use anyway, I don't include them). He is only 6, has no musical talent, no drawing talent. Our fun in mostly hiking, beach, park, skate park, pump track, biking, body boarding, traveling to Europe in the summer or south america/Caribbean/hawaii in the winter. Probably I cut a little from the plane tickets but I assumed that is not a mandatory thing.

I do understand that other ages can be more expensive. In my opinion excessive materialism towards kids doesn't do them any service.People just use kids as an excuse for spending too much.

PS: damn I forgot about skiing. Please add 400$ for the pass. No lessons though.
100 food +100 health care + 350 daycare +150 misc (housing, clothes, excess driving, other activities,..) =700 bucks/month. That cheap kid is 8k/year. That is enough to basically pay for the cost difference between driving an accord and driving a model 3.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:17 am

OP,
If I were in your situation, I would buy it.
Comparing Tesla 3 to Leaf (both are electric) is similar to comparing corolla to BMW 3 series (both use gas).

As for long range 3 to performance, I personally would go with long range only. I cannot get the performance acceleration until I go to tracks or drive on highways on weekends (due to traffic limitations on weekdays).

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by moehoward » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:47 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:52 pm
As much as I'm an anti-fan of Tesla.....comparisons saying a Leaf is a reasonable substitute for a Tesla anything is just silly. A comparison of that comparison in ICE cars is that a Corolla is 40% the car that a GT-3RS is. No......just no. It's zero percent.
I agree. My daughter has a Leaf and her mother-in-law has a Tesla. I like the Leaf but there is no comparison. I have never bought an expensive car but the high end Tesla does make me think about it.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by finite_difference » Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:55 am

Compared to having kids, $75k is not a very big deal. It’s easy to spend $1k/month/kid including daycare.

If your employment situation is stable I think you have no problems affording it.

For $75k I’d also look at the Tesla Model S though.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

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matjen
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by matjen » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:10 am

I have a new way to talk you out of purchasing a Model 3 Performance OP. Elon Musk kind of hates the very premise of this board. Passive investing. He also shows his ignorance. Why reward him. ;-)
pennylane wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:38 pm
Also, you'll be supporting a visionary and possibly one of the greatest thinkers of our time.
mouses wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:07 pm
There are a lot of short sellers apparently doing their best to harm the company.
Visionary Genius Elon Musk has some interesting views about the Boglehead way of investing! I think he is best served by concentrating on his business and not Tesla's stock price and/or shorts.

Image
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

sc9182
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by sc9182 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:27 am

Retirement/FIRE goals are very important, but don't aspire to have fun only when you turn old/fragile. With stable job/career, given where you are financially, and the discipline you exercise., Tesla may be within your range.

If you are over 6' 2" or heavyset frame., Tesla Model3 might feel a tad snug, do consider Model S, made after Aug 2017 for latest AP hardware/ gear.

Get Auto Pilot, unless all your jaunts are strictly short/local-roads.

Get minimum AWD. Performance option only if you are sportsy personality/type. However, Performance option may future proof you with potential future release of Ludicrous/Venom/deamon mode, if such things are in store (likely)
Last edited by sc9182 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:33 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by TheGreyingDuke » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:29 am

I am a "car guy" (go back to a 1962 Porsche 356), retired with all the assets I need, and also trying to decide about the 3, I will forego the financial aspects and share my thinking.

1) My own inclination is for the Long Range, RWD model. Tesla now tells me that I can get it in "less than 4 weeks". But read the forums and you see that many have had multiple delivery promises without a vehicle. Worry is that delivery could pass the end of the year and with it $3750 in tax credit.

2) I am 200 miles from a service center and there have been reports (how many, what per cent?) of trips needed to sort out things, not really feasible at this distance.

3) If you should have a need for body work there are reports of waiting months for parts, not to mention some expensive repairs due to the steel/ aluminium construction. If your car is in for mechanical service Tesla will give you a loaner, but if you crash it, you are on your own.

4) Looking at used Model S, I can but a 2015 85D from Tesla with 26k miles for about $50k with a warranty to match that on new vehicles (except the battery), I think it will be the less expensive choice over the period of ownership, but clearly more in the MB S or BMW 5 class, the 3 is amazing how it steers on rails.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." H.G. Wells

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Eazyndn » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:40 am

I have had the Model 3 for a few months now, and I highly recommend that you get it. Don’t over analyze. I was in the same decision making process as you, till I quickly made a decision and have not regretted it. I personally have 5 friends and family that have a Model S or Model 3, and all of them love their car, and have had no problems with them.
Tesla makes a premium product and they are not going to be Bankrupt.

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Ged
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Ged » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:48 am

As far as the longevity of Tesla Corporation (a very different thing than the stock price which has been unsustainable for a while) I am optimistic. The Model 3 is generating a pile of cash. In terms of revenue (sales units x price) it is the #1 car right now.

Do you take long trips? > 250 miles round trip?

If you do I would be skeptical that it is the right car for you. To me the Achilles heel of the Tesla and all electric vehicles is the 'refueling'.

Otherwise - you are financially in a good position and with the lack of children your need to save for future large expenses like college is not a big deal.
Last edited by Ged on Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

sc9182
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by sc9182 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:52 am

TheGreyingDuke wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:29 am
I am a "car guy" (go back to a 1962 Porsche 356), retired with all the assets I need, and also trying to decide about the 3, I will forego the financial aspects and share my thinking.

1) My own inclination is for the Long Range, RWD model. Tesla now tells me that I can get it in "less than 4 weeks". But read the forums and you see that many have had multiple delivery promises without a vehicle. Worry is that delivery could pass the end of the year and with it $3750 in tax credit.

2) I am 200 miles from a service center and there have been reports (how many, what per cent?) of trips needed to sort out things, not really feasible at this distance.

3) If you should have a need for body work there are reports of waiting months for parts, not to mention some expensive repairs due to the steel/ aluminium construction. If your car is in for mechanical service Tesla will give you a loaner, but if you crash it, you are on your own.

4) Looking at used Model S, I can but a 2015 85D from Tesla with 26k miles for about $50k with a warranty to match that on new vehicles (except the battery), I think it will be the less expensive choice over the period of ownership, but clearly more in the MB S or BMW 5 class, the 3 is amazing how it steers on rails.
Great points. Wouldn't lose sleep on Fed tax credit half'ing in your case, unless delay caused by you (financing, scheduling, or actual delivery etc), Tesla very well could make it for you one way or the other if they promised pre Dec 31st delivery but 'they' couldn't meet. Would not expect entire $3750 tax-credit loss due to their delay, they atleast would meet in middle or something. They could do price adjustment or throw in EAP or future Ludicrous mode free etc.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by JackoC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:09 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:52 pm
As much as I'm an anti-fan of Tesla.....comparisons saying a Leaf is a reasonable substitute for a Tesla anything is just silly. A comparison of that comparison in ICE cars is that a Corolla is 40% the car that a GT-3RS is. No......just no. It's zero percent.
I agree, there's an aspect of cool cars which is just a different thing to buy than basic cars. Although the two things overlap to some extent in every car. I think this is where proponents of 'A to B' and cool cars actually agree with one another even as they argue, or maybe less optimistically talk past each other. A old Corolla would get me from A to B if anything more smoothly and quietly than my M2. But that's not why I have the M2. The Corolla would cover the need I satisfy with my M2 as well as a vacuum cleaner would. Although I also do have a vacuum cleaner (and a regular BMW, though not a Corolla, that's more warm and fuzzy than the M2, has 4 doors, etc). Same applies to more seriously expensive cars.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Nate79 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:15 am

No way would I buy a Model 3 in your financial situation. You are saving well and right on track where you need to be. You have a decent salary but $75k is very expensive. That is probably 1 year of expenses. If I was dropping $75k I would want a true luxury car but you seem more interested in the electric and performance part. Still $75k seems very expensive for a performance model of what is supposed to be an economy EV.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Pete3 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:29 am

Still $75k seems very expensive for a performance model of what is supposed to be an economy EV.
No one is calling the Model 3 an economy EV (except you). It may be the cheapest car Tesla has produced so far, but it is not and was never intended to be an economy car.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Olemiss540 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:44 am

Can you afford it? Do you have 75k set aside for a toy? If not than no. If so than yes. A GT3 RS would be amazing, but there is a reason I have never test driven one.

Your retirement assets do not matter since those are earmarked for 15 years from now, it is a matter of lifestyle inflation and in 3 years test driving 110k supercars....
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:50 am

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:15 am
No way would I buy a Model 3 in your financial situation. You are saving well and right on track where you need to be. You have a decent salary but $75k is very expensive.
Just curious as to what the salary of OP should be(assuming the current assets already saved is as is) for you to give green signal to buy Model 3.

Nate79
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Nate79 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:52 am

Pete3 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:29 am
Still $75k seems very expensive for a performance model of what is supposed to be an economy EV.
No one is calling the Model 3 an economy EV (except you). It may be the cheapest car Tesla has produced so far, but it is not and was never intended to be an economy car.
By economy car, how commonly used, meaning car for the masses (open to all) which the Model 3 $35k car (not including rebates) was most definitely marketed. That Musk recently admitted that Tesla would go broke if they tried to supply a $35k Model 3. At the time people were talking about a potential $27k Model 3 after rebates competing with the sedan market. Most definitely not the luxury market and not the performance market at the time. The Model 3 was also called "affordable."

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Nate79 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:55 am

niceguy7376 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:50 am
Nate79 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:15 am
No way would I buy a Model 3 in your financial situation. You are saving well and right on track where you need to be. You have a decent salary but $75k is very expensive.
Just curious as to what the salary of OP should be(assuming the current assets already saved is as is) for you to give green signal to buy Model 3.
I like the rule of thumb that a person should have no more than 50% of their annual income in ALL depreciating assets like cars, boats, etc. Basic reason is that you are fighting that depreciation with your income each year as an expense and so the lower it is the less hit to your net worth. The 50% number could be debated. So if the OP has other cars, boats, etc the $75k is already at the ~50% level.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by pennylane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:02 am

matjen wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:10 am
I have a new way to talk you out of purchasing a Model 3 Performance OP. Elon Musk kind of hates the very premise of this board. Passive investing. He also shows his ignorance. Why reward him. ;-)

Visionary Genius Elon Musk has some interesting views about the Boglehead way of investing! I think he is best served by concentrating on his business and not Tesla's stock price and/or shorts.

Passive index investing isn't for everyone. What you're suggesting is not doing business with someone who doesn't have the same views as you which is wrong. If everyone took this approach with every transaction, no one would ever buy anything.

Also, you could argue that you can't punish a man who is worth well over 20Billion. The guy doesn't need anymore money, he doesn't do it for money - he said it himself, he is basically a volunteer, I don't think there's anything in this world that Elon Musk can't buy. He works 16+ hours per day, does a billionaire really need to be working that hard? He could spend the rest of his life lounging but instead he works. Think about that for a minute.

Pete3
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Pete3 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:06 am

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:52 am
Pete3 wrote:
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:29 am
Still $75k seems very expensive for a performance model of what is supposed to be an economy EV.
No one is calling the Model 3 an economy EV (except you). It may be the cheapest car Tesla has produced so far, but it is not and was never intended to be an economy car.
By economy car, how commonly used, meaning car for the masses (open to all) which the Model 3 $35k car (not including rebates) was most definitely marketed. That Musk recently admitted that Tesla would go broke if they tried to supply a $35k Model 3. At the time people were talking about a potential $27k Model 3 after rebates competing with the sedan market. Most definitely not the luxury market and not the performance market at the time. The Model 3 was also called "affordable."
An affordable car is not the same as an economy car. Honda Accord is an affordable car. Honda Fit is an economy car. You can't change the definition of commonly accepted words to fit your predetermined narrative : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_car

You are also quoting Musk out of context, by the time they start making the $35k Model 3 they will have achieved the economy of scale required so that it will be profitable, that was not possible during the initial ramp up which is why they started with the more expensive versions. Expert teardown of the parts used to make the car have proven the car can be profitable at $35k : https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-mo ... itability/

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by samta09 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:15 am

Do you take long trips? > 250 miles round trip?

If you do I would be skeptical that it is the right car for you. To me the Achilles heel of the Tesla and all electric vehicles is the 'refueling'.

Range anxiety is becoming a thing of the past. Supercharging stations are located strategically near highways and are within 100 miles of each other. More are coming every year. Also, how often do average Americans take over 250 road trip per year? When they do, there are supercharging stations available for them to charge. You can verify by looking at their supercharging map.

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