A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

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OnFire
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A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by OnFire » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am

Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
Where are all the customers yachts? | | “The most powerful force in the Universe is compound interest.” -Albert Einstein

denovo
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by denovo » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 am

Unsolicited financial advice is a good way to annoy people.

BusterMcTaco
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by BusterMcTaco » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 am

It sounds like you made your opinion known already. It's his money, and he's presumably a competent adult. I personally would never broach the subject again.

AlohaJoe
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by AlohaJoe » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:20 am

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits.
Are you also going to tell him how he should be raising his children, running his business, and grilling his steaks?

If it were me, I'd say, "Hey, congrats on the good luck."

Eric76
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Eric76 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:20 am

I would congratulate him on his success and then talk about something else.

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Devil's Advocate
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Devil's Advocate » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:23 am

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
Unless he asks your opinion, tell him nothing.
DA

Bfwolf
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Bfwolf » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:24 am

I doubt you're going to convince him, and it may just annoy him since it's unsolicited.

His perspective is off though. He doesn't have 10K in Bitcoin anymore. He has $1M. Every day, he is making the decision of whether he wants to have $1M (or whatever the current valuation is) invested in Bitcoin. Ask him: if he had $1M more in cash than he has right now, and nothing in Bitcoin, would he buy $1M in bitcoin? If the answer is no, then he's making the wrong decision by staying fully invested (yes there are some tax implications to selling).

You can also ask him what his end game here is. At what price WOULD he sell?

It's crazy for a working stiff to have $1M invested in this crypto-currency. He could sell $250K of it now and another $250K on Jan 1 (to spread the tax burden) and still hold $500K of the stuff going forward. Is $500K not letting it ride enough???
Last edited by Bfwolf on Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

chinchin
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by chinchin » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:26 am

You answered your own question. Why pay taxes on the gains.

bridge
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by bridge » Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:27 am

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin.
And you wonder why he doesn't value your advice? :D

sambb
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by sambb » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:09 am

10k to 1M? seems like he is doing just fine without advice. offer none.

snowox
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by snowox » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:32 am

I agree if hes a valued friend you cant say much other than congratulate him and perhaps say with that success you have had sure sounds like your in the position to be working your exit strategy and have a stop loss in. That would be the max of what I would say. Chances are he would be like " you bet"

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:32 am

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
He should take half off the table.

Wish I had done that in the dot com bubble.

livesoft
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by livesoft » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:33 am

I think the book "Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes" addresses this question in the first few paragraphs.

I also saw this retweeted on Cliff Asness's feed:
Image
This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Seasonal
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Seasonal » Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:53 am

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.
Reminds me of the legend of the man in the green bathrobe, frequently retold by financial advisors and behavioral economists:

By the third day of their honeymoon in Las Vegas, a pair of newlyweds had lost their $1,000 gambling allowance. That night in bed, the groom noticed a glowing object on the dresser. He realized it was the $5 chip he had saved as a souvenir. The number 17 was embossed on the chip’s face. Taking this as an omen, he donned his green bathrobe, rushed down to the roulette tables and placed the $5 chip on the square marked 17. Sure enough, the ball hit 17. The bet paid 35;1. Next spin he puts his winnings on 17 and again it comes up.

And so it went, until the lucky groom was about to wager $175 million. The floor manager intervened, claiming that the casino didn’t have the money to pay should 17 hit again. Still clad in his bathrobe, the young man taxied to a better-financed casino. Once again, he bet it all on 17, only to lose everything when the ball fell on 18.

Broke and dejected, the groom walked back to his own hotel room. “Where were you?” asked his bride. “Playing roulette,” he responded. “How did you do?” she queried. His reply: “Not bad. I lost $5.”

hightower
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by hightower » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:32 am

Good for him. He has an opportunity now to make an easy $1,000,000 dollars for having done essentially nothing. Hopefully he "sees the light" now and sells all of it and cashes in. He will have "won" if he does this. Could it go higher? Sure. Could it crash and burn and be worth nothing? Sure as well.
If it were me I would have never bought it in the first place and if I did I would have probably sold it when it hit $250/coin. So, his buy and hold strategy is currently working out very, very well for him. I sincerely hope he gets to cash in before it crashes, because it eventually will. There's no such thing as an investment that goes up forever.

mxs
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by mxs » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:33 am

I agree, you shouldn't give advice unless asked. I only give that kind of advice if the other person starts the conversation. If I were in their shoes I would sell the 250k now and 250k next year as suggested above, and let 500k ride for now. You are guaranteed nothing until you cash out. That is true with any investment, particularly this one.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by mxs » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:43 am

Seasonal wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:53 am
Roulette story
I like roulette stories. Here is mine. I went into a casino only mildly wanting to gamble. Played $100, got down to $10 or so. Put it on two numbers, one of them being black 26 which my friend called. It hit, I then had $200. I decided to walk away up. My friend said to stay on black 26. I took my money and stepped back. Black 26 hit and I could have had $7000. I still left up $100. I was happy but annoyed.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:57 am

denovo wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 am
Unsolicited financial advice is a good way to annoy people.
or worse.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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Toons
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Toons » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:00 am

Enjoy Some Of The Gains.
:happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by nisiprius » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:01 am

The story goes that George Gershwin asked composer Igor Stravinsky for lessons. Stravinsky asked Gershwin how much money he made; when Gershwin told him, Stravinsky said, "I should be taking lessons from you."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by harvestbook » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:06 am

Depends on how annoying he is about it. if he brings it up every time he sees you, I'd say, "Dude, hold all the way up!" And then keep quiet when it crashed.

I was seriously looking at getting in at the end of last year, but there were just too many things I didn't understand. Even if I had, I'm quite sure I'd have sold out after a 25 percent gain and called myself lucky. As it is, I am agnostic on bitcoin winners and losers. My personal suspicion is that the eventual winners will be half a dozen hacker crooks in Asia. But it means about as much to me as a $450 million Da Vinci painting that may or may not be fake. It has nothing to do with my reality.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

Traveller
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Traveller » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:26 am

The only thing I'd say to him is "Congrats!!!" Followed by "...and dinner is on you."

jlcnuke
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by jlcnuke » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:30 am

If he asked for advice, I'd say take some profits and let whatever amount you think is appropriate ride if you want to keep gambling on it.

If he didn't ask for advice, I'd say nothing. It's his business.

onourway
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by onourway » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:39 am

If he's a smart business man his point of view may well be that $1M may still not make a huge difference in his overall lifestyle. Yes, that's a nice, tidy sum, but he probably sees the possibility that it could go to $10M or more which would suddenly really change things. If he's a risk-taker and in no way reliant on this money, that's a reasonable bet to make.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by NotWhoYouThink » Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:55 am

Tell him he can pick up the check for lunch.

Maverick3320
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Maverick3320 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:21 am

"Good luck."

aristotelian
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by aristotelian » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:23 am

Make that $1.1M.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by soupcxan » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:26 am

[deleted]
Last edited by soupcxan on Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Watty
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Watty » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:32 am

If he is really a friend and not an acquaintance then you should be able to express your concern but not present it as advice.

Taking some money off the table and doing something like paying off his house if he has a mortgage would be a very reasonable thing to do just for insurance.

Chip
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Chip » Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:38 am

I think you should ask him to treat you to a cup of coffee. At grayfox's bitcoin-accepting coffee shop. Including the first class tickets to get there and back. :P

SrGrumpy
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by SrGrumpy » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:13 am

It must be nice to have a rich friend. Don't blow it.

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HomerJ
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by HomerJ » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 am

I went to Vegas in 2007 and talked to my cab driver about the housing boom there at the time.

He said his condo was worth over a million dollars (he bought it for $200,000). I told him to sell it, and rent for a while.

He said he might sell if it got to $2 million.

It didn't. I always wondered what happened to that guy.

But that poor guy would have to sell it all to cash in, and MOVE. So I can somewhat understand the reluctance.

Your friend is a terrible (typical) gambler. He can pocket some of his winnings with a press of a button, but he enjoys the rush more than actually winning.

The problem is simple though. Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, but any normal human being would have sold 50% earlier than this point, so the only reason he's even in this position is because he's not a normal human being, and therefore you can't expect him to suddenly act like one.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by KlangFool » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:53 am

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 am
I went to Vegas in 2007 and talked to my cab driver about the housing boom there at the time.

He said his condo was worth over a million dollars (he bought it for $200,000). I told him to sell it, and rent for a while.

He said he might sell if it got to $2 million.

It didn't. I always wondered what happened to that guy.

But that poor guy would have to sell it all to cash in, and MOVE. So I can somewhat understand the reluctance.

Your friend is a terrible (typical) gambler. He can pocket some of his winnings with a press of a button, but he enjoys the rush more than actually winning.

The problem is simple though. Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, but any normal human being would have sold 50% earlier than this point, so the only reason he's even in this position is because he's not a normal human being, and therefore you can't expect him to suddenly act like one.
HomerJ,

<<Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, >>

I disagreed. Normal human beings are lousy at gambling. Hence, the casino makes a lot of money.

I have the first-hand observation of this kind of behavior.

A) Person A

20+ years working experience in Wall Street. Master of Economy from the University of Chicago. He had 10 million of paper profit from a single Telecom stock. But, he could not sell and lost it all during Telecom bubble and bust.

B) Person B

The only few people that could make money from a casino. He walks into a casino and pre-determined how much he is willing to lose. If he wins, he took some off the table. If he loses up to his limit, he walked away.


Only abnormal people could gamble and win. Most normal people could not walk away when they win. Hence, we lose in the end. This is how the casinos make money.

I would not know how I will react if my portfolio is making 100K per week until it happened. This is the reason why 40% of my portfolio is in Wellington fund. I need to protect myself from my emotion.

KlangFool

Jags4186
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Jags4186 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:14 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:53 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 am
I went to Vegas in 2007 and talked to my cab driver about the housing boom there at the time.

He said his condo was worth over a million dollars (he bought it for $200,000). I told him to sell it, and rent for a while.

He said he might sell if it got to $2 million.

It didn't. I always wondered what happened to that guy.

But that poor guy would have to sell it all to cash in, and MOVE. So I can somewhat understand the reluctance.

Your friend is a terrible (typical) gambler. He can pocket some of his winnings with a press of a button, but he enjoys the rush more than actually winning.

The problem is simple though. Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, but any normal human being would have sold 50% earlier than this point, so the only reason he's even in this position is because he's not a normal human being, and therefore you can't expect him to suddenly act like one.
HomerJ,

<<Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, >>

I disagreed. Normal human beings are lousy at gambling. Hence, the casino makes a lot of money.

I have the first-hand observation of this kind of behavior.

A) Person A

20+ years working experience in Wall Street. Master of Economy from the University of Chicago. He had 10 million of paper profit from a single Telecom stock. But, he could not sell and lost it all during Telecom bubble and bust.

B) Person B

The only few people that could make money from a casino. He walks into a casino and pre-determined how much he is willing to lose. If he wins, he took some off the table. If he loses up to his limit, he walked away.


Only abnormal people could gamble and win. Most normal people could not walk away when they win. Hence, we lose in the end. This is how the casinos make money.

I would not know how I will react if my portfolio is making 100K per week until it happened. This is the reason why 40% of my portfolio is in Wellington fund. I need to protect myself from my emotion.

KlangFool
The only people who win gambling in a casino are people who play skill games against other gamblers like poker. The house isn't putting up any money in poker and takes a table fee (rake).

Even the very best gamblers cannot win over the long haul as all table games and slot machines give the casino a mathematical advantage. Sure there are "card counters" in games like blackjack but casinos counter that by having automatic shufflers that shuffle every hand.

chevca
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by chevca » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:14 pm

He's a business man and a smart one at that,.... and you're a fireman/paramedic. What do you think you should tell him? :happy

I kid, no knock on fire fighter or paramedics.

I would tell him..... nothing. Let him do as he pleases with this.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Nate79 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:22 pm

The advice listed above that if you had $1m in cash would you invest it in Bitcoin today is a very important lesson in finance in general with wide applicability. I would use that example just to make sure your friend understands the choice they are making. But it's their decision, not yours and I wouldn't insert your opinion about bitcoin into the decision making process. If your friend is ok with putting $1m into bitcoin, so be it. But that is the proper decision. If he doesn't understand this he isn't a very good business man........

KlangFool
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by KlangFool » Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:54 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:14 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:53 am
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 am
I went to Vegas in 2007 and talked to my cab driver about the housing boom there at the time.

He said his condo was worth over a million dollars (he bought it for $200,000). I told him to sell it, and rent for a while.

He said he might sell if it got to $2 million.

It didn't. I always wondered what happened to that guy.

But that poor guy would have to sell it all to cash in, and MOVE. So I can somewhat understand the reluctance.

Your friend is a terrible (typical) gambler. He can pocket some of his winnings with a press of a button, but he enjoys the rush more than actually winning.

The problem is simple though. Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, but any normal human being would have sold 50% earlier than this point, so the only reason he's even in this position is because he's not a normal human being, and therefore you can't expect him to suddenly act like one.
HomerJ,

<<Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, >>

I disagreed. Normal human beings are lousy at gambling. Hence, the casino makes a lot of money.

I have the first-hand observation of this kind of behavior.

A) Person A

20+ years working experience in Wall Street. Master of Economy from the University of Chicago. He had 10 million of paper profit from a single Telecom stock. But, he could not sell and lost it all during Telecom bubble and bust.

B) Person B

The only few people that could make money from a casino. He walks into a casino and pre-determined how much he is willing to lose. If he wins, he took some off the table. If he loses up to his limit, he walked away.


Only abnormal people could gamble and win. Most normal people could not walk away when they win. Hence, we lose in the end. This is how the casinos make money.

I would not know how I will react if my portfolio is making 100K per week until it happened. This is the reason why 40% of my portfolio is in Wellington fund. I need to protect myself from my emotion.

KlangFool
The only people who win gambling in a casino are people who play skill games against other gamblers like poker. The house isn't putting up any money in poker and takes a table fee (rake).
Jags4186,

Or, the person is unusually lucky. Person B had strike lottery 3 times in his life.

KlangFool

evancox10
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by evancox10 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:08 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:22 pm
The advice listed above that if you had $1m in cash would you invest it in Bitcoin today is a very important lesson in finance in general with wide applicability. I would use that example just to make sure your friend understands the choice they are making.
My experience in general has been that most people, including very smart ones well versed in finance, do not regard "Should I keep my money invested in asset X?" the same as "if I had cash would I invest it in asset X?". Even ignoring transactional costs such as bid/ask spreads or taxes. People tend to have very strong anchoring/status quo biases.

I have stopped using this as an example; I don't think you will get very far with it. I agree with the other posters, let the situation be.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Wakefield1 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:27 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:01 am
The story goes that George Gershwin asked composer Igor Stravinsky for lessons. Stravinsky asked Gershwin how much money he made; when Gershwin told him, Stravinsky said, "I should be taking lessons from you."
Don't count your chicks until the eggs hatch.
I suspect that eventually there won't be enough eggs hatched to go around.

Gufomel
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Gufomel » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:29 pm

Good for him. He's also "lost" ~$100k in the last 30 minutes as the price tanked from over $11,000 to under $10,000. I'm sure it's an exhilarating ride, but not one that many have the stomach for.
Last edited by Gufomel on Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bgf
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by bgf » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:33 pm

sounds like he's played this entire thing perfectly. he knew exactly what he was doing. he made a pure speculation play with, what i assume, was a very small amount of his net worth, and, boom, it has paid off exactly how you hope speculative bets play out. he's now got $1m and only wagered $10k!!! your friend nailed it.

the problem he is in is that he only nailed it because he stuck with extreme volatility for years, which is an incredibly difficult thing to do. its probably the hardest thing to do when it comes to investing. quite frankly, i am incredibly impressed that he has crossed the 'mental block' of $1m and still has not sold...

Bfwolf
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Bfwolf » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:38 pm

onourway wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:39 am
If he's a smart business man his point of view may well be that $1M may still not make a huge difference in his overall lifestyle. Yes, that's a nice, tidy sum, but he probably sees the possibility that it could go to $10M or more which would suddenly really change things. If he's a risk-taker and in no way reliant on this money, that's a reasonable bet to make.
I suppose if he has something like $4M then this could be possible. $1M is not make or break but $10MM is a game changer.

But somehow I doubt this guy has $4M of money outside of Bitcoin. If he did, then I would agree that keeping your mouth shut is the best move you can make, because losing the $1M would suck but is not truly consequential to this guy's life. But if this guy is a normal working stiff and has less than $1M in assets, then I'm not sure it's being a good friend to keep one's mouth shut just because he didn't ask for advice. Good friends should be willing to tell hard truths to other good friends when it can make a big difference in that person's life. That's why people with drug problems receive interventions from their friends and families. If $1MM is a big deal to this guy, he needs somebody to tell him the hard truth and get him to sell off part of his holding.

Gufomel
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Gufomel » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:38 pm

Gufomel wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:29 pm
Good for him. He's also "lost" ~$100k in the last 30 minutes as the price tanked from over $11,000 to under $10,000. I'm sure it's an exhilarating ride, but not one that many have the stomach for.
Now down to $9000. So he's down about $200k in the matter of an hour or so. Again, he's apparently got unrealized gains so far of several hundred thousand in this, and we don't. So I can't (and you can't) convince him of anything. But the volatility of this is incredible. I don't know how anyone manages to maintain any type of sizeable "investment" in it and also maintain their sanity.
Last edited by Gufomel on Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

renue74
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by renue74 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:42 pm

Great! I'm in the same boat!!!! I put $20 into my Coinbase wallet in October. I'm up to $44....down to $30....up to $35.

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rocket354
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by rocket354 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:45 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:31 am

The problem is simple though. Any normal human being would sell 50% at this point, but any normal human being would have sold 50% earlier than this point, so the only reason he's even in this position is because he's not a normal human being, and therefore you can't expect him to suddenly act like one.
This is a good point. Kind of the inverse idea of people who can't save. At every positive dollar amount, they have something they'd buy, and so they never get above a nominal amount and can never afford the nicer things they want (or need).

Since it sounds like the OP's friend isn't overly wealthy otherwise, keeping $1mm in BTC is foolish. But it's apparently his nature. There's nothing that can really be said. I hope it works out for him. Either way, he'll have a heck of a story to tell.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by gougou » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:01 pm

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
What if you tell him to get out and Bitcoin 10X again next year? He is going to hate you forever.

You are lucky he didn't sell at $200. If he did imagine what he thinks about you today.

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Misenplace
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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by Misenplace » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:07 pm

rocket354 wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:45 pm
him. Either way, he'll have a heck of a story to tell.
Not this. Tell your friend to tell no one about have a fortune in Bitcoin. At least not until he diversifies and sells it.

Something about this currency attracts criminal elements. I have heard anecdotally about early Bitcoin millionaires going underground out of concern.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by flamesabers » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:18 pm

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
Especially since he's a smart businessman I think he's well aware of the risks he's taking. If he's comfortable taking the risk of losing $10k, I don't think there is anything you can say to convince him to sell his BTC. Besides, it's his money, not yours.

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by ulrichw » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:23 pm

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?
Hopefully he's smart enough to make up his own mind on what he should do, but here's what I would say:

It's very hard to anticipate where Bitcoin will go. It could go up by another factor of 10, or it could go down by a factor of 10 - and given its volatility, both outcomes could happen in a very short amount of time.

My suggestion: This is one of those once-in-a-lifetime situations where the money could become life-changing money. I would suggest letting it ride until it becomes life-changing, and then take it off the table. If $1M is life-changing to him right now - he should cash out.


Edit: Removed statement with bad math

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Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:37 pm

OnFire wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 2:39 am
Granted, he “saw the light” nearly 4 years ago, when BTC was $114. He bought $10K worth. I’m thinking it might be time to take some profits. He is a working stiff, but also a business man and a smart one at that. His opinion is that if if it goes to zero, $10K won’t break him, but if he sells, he might regret it, and he’s “letting it ride”.

I told him to get out with his profit when it was $200 a coin. Why is now different than then? What would YOU say to convince him, or should I just keep my mouth shut completely?

Am I the only one who sees an issue with this? Think about how you're going to come off. Had he listened to your advice he would never have had his 1M. Doesn't that kind of destroy your credibility?

What reason have you given him to cause him to trust that you have some special kind of insight he should pay heed to? It may well be the case that you are correct. But you have no credibility to give him that advice.

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