Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:50 am

SpreadHakr wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:28 am
So even with income between 10740 and 64764, an incremental dollar for the last 15 years of working will only get you 1.1 cents per month increase in payment. Probably the worst legal annuity you could find is better. :oops:
It's outside the scope of discussion for this thread, but only part of the benefit goes to retirement payments for you. If married with unworking spouse, spouse also gets lifetime payments despite no earnings. And don't forget SS disability coverage, survivors benefits, disability benefits for dependents, etc. But your point is valid, that as far as the retirement benefit is concerned, there are indeed diminishing returns. :D

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by dknightd » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:19 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 8:38 am
Newest version here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Atj-cegEXidXrGZgWf1RyCoGPrn0
Is it gone? I cann't seem to connect to 1drv.ms

Thanks

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:01 pm

dknightd wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:19 pm
neurosphere wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 8:38 am
Newest version here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Atj-cegEXidXrGZgWf1RyCoGPrn0
Is it gone? I cann't seem to connect to 1drv.ms

Thanks
That link is working for me, whether I'm signed into one-drive or not. What happens when you click the link?

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FiveK
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:55 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:01 pm
That link is working for me, whether I'm signed into one-drive or not. What happens when you click the link?
Works for me also.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by dknightd » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:38 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:01 pm
dknightd wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:19 pm
neurosphere wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 8:38 am
Newest version here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Atj-cegEXidXrGZgWf1RyCoGPrn0
Is it gone? I cann't seem to connect to 1drv.ms

Thanks
That link is working for me, whether I'm signed into one-drive or not. What happens when you click the link?
I get an error: The page you are trying to view cannot be shown because the authenticity of the received data could not be verified.

But I just tried it on another computer and it worked fine. Seems perhaps just to be a problem with this particular computer.
Sorry for the false alarm.
Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet!

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am

I'm getting vastly different results from neurosphere's spreadsheet than ANYPIA. Neurosphere is about 27% lower.

With ANYPIA I use the most pessimistic assumptions option from the 2018 Trustee Report (alternative III) for both benefit increase and average wage increase.

Image

However, the only way I get ANYPIA to come close to match Neurosphere's spreadsheet is by inputting "No increase beginning with 2018 benefit increase" and "no increase beyond 2016 average wage" into ANYPIA assumptions.

Am I wrong to use "Alternative III" in all my calculations rather than "no increase"?

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FiveK
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:34 am

jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am
Am I wrong to use "Alternative III" in all my calculations rather than "no increase"?
"Wrong" is subjective here, but if you want an estimate in current dollars the "No increase" option is correct. From the anypia documentation:
[No increase] is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate
with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:43 am

jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am
I'm getting vastly different results from neurosphere's spreadsheet than ANYPIA.
My calculator is defaulted to "zero" for both future CPI increase and future wage growth. These are the defaults used in all the SS calculators online and the mailed benefit statements/estimates. But anypia allows you to set your own defaults. In your screenshot, you see you can choose any of the 3 trustee assumptions, or zero. You can also set your own year-by-year assumptions in another window.

But note, my output is in terms of Sept 2017 dollars, while anypia is in actual future dollars. If one selects "Zero" for CPI, then Sept 2017 dollars will equal future dollars. So you cannot directly compare my output with anypia for non-zero CPI assumptions. Which is one of the major points of my calculator, to be able to get your future benefit in terms of TODAY's dollars. No other SS calculator allows you to do this (when assuming non-zero inflation forever).

If you'd like to use non-zero assumptions in my calculator, you can do so. Look in the box at the top, above the graph. Enter your values in the peach boxes, and it will populate all future years to the values you select. For reference, the trustee "II" assumptions are show to the right. Note that you won't be able to get the numbers to match exactly, because currently my calculator doesn't allow you to enter in exactly the Trustee assumptions. If you want to do that, use anypia! :) But my calculator allows you to play with the interaction between wage growth and CPI. What you'll see is that if the the trustee assumptions that wage growth will continue to exceed CPI growth actually come true, then future benefits are larger, in terms of today's dollars, than SS tells you it will be.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:52 am

FiveK wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:34 am
"Wrong" is subjective here, but if you want an estimate in current dollars the "No increase" option is correct. From the anypia documentation:
[No increase] is the recommended assumption for projecting future benefits. You can compare a benefit estimate
with no future inflation to your current income and expenses for retirement planning.
This is the only way to get the anypia output in terms of today's dollars. However, it is unrealistic to assume zero inflation and zero wage growth. Setting inflation and wage to zero is a "workaround" of sorts, in order to get the anypia output to display in today's dollars.

But here is an example of non-zero assumptions using my calculator...

A person born Jan 1 1972, with 35 years maximal earnings prior to age 60, collecting at FRA (67):

1) assume zero for CPI and inflation: Monthly benefit is $2993 in terms of Sept 2017 dollars
2) Assume CPI = 2.6% and Wage growth = 3.8% (these are roughly the trustee II assumptions): Benefit is $3545 in terms of Sept 2017 dollars
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:14 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:43 am
jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am
I'm getting vastly different results from neurosphere's spreadsheet than ANYPIA.
My calculator is defaulted to "zero" for both future CPI increase and future wage growth. These are the defaults used in all the SS calculators online and the mailed benefit statements/estimates. But anypia allows you to set your own defaults. In your screenshot, you see you can choose any of the 3 trustee assumptions, or zero. You can also set your own year-by-year assumptions in another window.
Is what you discuss entirely separate from the common assumption that one should multiply benefits by 77% in 2034 if one assumes there won't be a legislative solution? Or would I need to further reduce your spreadsheet's results by 23% for that assumption?

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:37 pm

jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:14 pm
Is what you discuss entirely separate from the common assumption that one should multiply benefits by 77% in 2034 if one assumes there won't be a legislative solution? Or would I need to further reduce your spreadsheet's results by 23% for that assumption?
The outputs of anypia and my calculator is simply "math" based on the current law. The numbers I'm providing are what happens with changing assumptions of only two parameters 1) wage inflation and 2) price inflation. Those values affect the benefit in different ways, and estimating those parameters are necessary to compute a future benefit in terms of today's dollars. The benefit is different if different assumptions of those two future economic conditions change.

So the short answer to your question is yes, what I discuss is indeed entirely separate from any changes to the law. I'm working within existing rules/law. If you want to make further assumptions and adjust the number based on predictions about what congress may do, you are free to do so. :D

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:53 pm

jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:14 pm
Is what you discuss entirely separate from the common assumption that one should multiply benefits by 77% in 2034 if one assumes there won't be a legislative solution?
neurosphere wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 12:37 pm
I'm working within existing rules/law.
The phrase "existing law" is unfortunately ambiguous in that one can reasonably interpret it to mean
a) the way income is taxed in 2018, or
b) the way income will be taxed in 2026 if no changes are made to the U.S. Code.

Whether SS benefits will decrease or not is a similar situation.

My $0.02 is to agree with neurosphere's interpretation (i.e., the way things are in 2018) but if someone wants to assume changes in 2026 or 2034, etc., that's also defensible.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:18 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 10:43 am
My calculator is defaulted to "zero" for both future CPI increase and future wage growth. These are the defaults used in all the SS calculators online and the mailed benefit statements/estimates. But anypia allows you to set your own defaults. In your screenshot, you see you can choose any of the 3 trustee assumptions, or zero. You can also set your own year-by-year assumptions in another window.

But note, my output is in terms of Sept 2017 dollars, while anypia is in actual future dollars. If one selects "Zero" for CPI, then Sept 2017 dollars will equal future dollars. So you cannot directly compare my output with anypia for non-zero CPI assumptions. Which is one of the major points of my calculator, to be able to get your future benefit in terms of TODAY's dollars. No other SS calculator allows you to do this (when assuming non-zero inflation forever).
The interesting thing is if I leave things at "0" in both your calculator and Anypia, the results are identical for retiring at age 67. But your results are lower for age 62 and higher for 70. Yet Anypia produces the same results for ages 62, 67, 70, unless I'm doing something wrong in entry. For instance, with yours I get @62: $1026 @67: 1465 and @70: $1817. Yes MyPia shows $1466 for ages 62, 67, and 70. I'm confused.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:40 pm

jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:18 pm
The interesting thing is if I leave things at "0" in both your calculator and Anypia, the results are identical for retiring at age 67. But your results are lower for age 62 and higher for 70. Yet Anypia produces the same results for ages 62, 67, 70, unless I'm doing something wrong in entry. For instance, with yours I get @62: $1026 @67: 1465 and @70: $1817. Yes MyPia shows $1466 for ages 62, 67, and 70. I'm confused.
You mention "results" at various ages for anypia. What does "results" mean? Monthly benefit? Primary insurance amount? Something else? At FRA (presumably age 67 for you) the PIA = the monthly benefit. The benefit is lower if you claim earlier than age 67, and larger if you claim later than age 67. But the PIA doesn't change unless there are new earnings.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:12 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:40 pm
jmk wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:18 pm
The interesting thing is if I leave things at "0" in both your calculator and Anypia, the results are identical for retiring at age 67. But your results are lower for age 62 and higher for 70. Yet Anypia produces the same results for ages 62, 67, 70, unless I'm doing something wrong in entry. For instance, with yours I get @62: $1026 @67: 1465 and @70: $1817. Yes MyPia shows $1466 for ages 62, 67, and 70. I'm confused.
You mention "results" at various ages for anypia. What does "results" mean? Monthly benefit? Primary insurance amount? Something else?
Ooops. I was looking just at PIA. Now i feel stupid. :oops:

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by ram » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:20 pm

Neurosphere,
My question pertains to professionals (physicians etc) who due to their long training frequently do not work for 35 years.
Assuming that from day 1 to the last working day the annual salary of a professional is more than the social security wage base what is the minimum number of years that such a person has to work to get maximal SS benefits.
When I played with the calculator about 15 years got you fairly close to maximal benefit. Increments after that were modest.
That leads to my next question : How many years of work for such a person gives you >= 90% of the maximal benefit?
If it matters let us assume that the first day of work for this person is at age 40. (MD PhD neurosurgeon with a couple of fellowships).
For this discussion let us disregard any benefits to the spouse from longer work years.
Ram

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:26 pm

ram wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:20 pm
Neurosphere,
My question pertains to professionals (physicians etc) who due to their long training frequently do not work for 35 years.
Give me a sample birthdate, yours, or a made up one. And I'll create an illustration. This is exactly the kind of question my spreadsheet easily answers, in graphical form.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by ram » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:35 pm

Birthdate Jan 1, 1965.
Started working Jan 1 2005.
Ram

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FiveK
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:47 pm

ram wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:20 pm
Assuming that from day 1 to the last working day the annual salary of a professional is more than the social security wage base what is the minimum number of years that such a person has to work to get maximal SS benefits.
This one is easy: 35 years. ;)
That leads to my next question : How many years of work for such a person gives you >= 90% of the maximal benefit?
If it matters let us assume that the first day of work for this person is at age 40.
The exact answer will vary a little due to different wage indexing in different years.

Approx. 80% of the maximum Average Indexed Monthly Earnings (AIME) translates to ~90% of the maximum benefit, at least for people retiring ~now, so ~28 years of max earnings.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:48 pm

ram wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:20 pm
Neurosphere,
My question pertains to professionals (physicians etc) who due to their long training frequently do not work for 35 years.
Assuming that from day 1 to the last working day the annual salary of a professional is more than the social security wage base what is the minimum number of years that such a person has to work to get maximal SS benefits.
When I played with the calculator about 15 years got you fairly close to maximal benefit. Increments after that were modest.
That leads to my next question : How many years of work for such a person gives you >= 90% of the maximal benefit?
If it matters let us assume that the first day of work for this person is at age 40. (MD PhD neurosurgeon with a couple of fellowships).
For this discussion let us disregard any benefits to the spouse from longer work years.
Here's a chart, birthdate of 1965, started training at age 32, started main job at age 40 earning the max each year. Choose your earnings "stop" date (e.g. retirement) on the X axis, and look up to the lines. Each line is your benefit depending on when you choose to receive your benefit. Age 70 at the top, age 62 at the bottom. This assumes no inflation or wage growth, as per the typical SS benefit estimates.

Image

Now, here is a similar graph, but instead, assuming you started maximal earnings at age 25, such that you have earned 35 years of maximal earnings prior to age 62. This graph shows what SS benefit you "could have had", had you started full earnings earlier.

Image

Note that the table at the top of the screenshots assumes you stop work and receive a benefit in the same year. Instead, the graph allows you to decouple the retirement date from the benefit date. Let me know if you need any help interpreting the output.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by ram » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:35 pm

Thanks a lot for your prompt reply. No problems with interpretation of the graphs. Thanks a lot for the excellent work.
Ram

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:53 pm

ram wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:35 pm
Thanks a lot for your prompt reply. No problems with interpretation of the graphs. Thanks a lot for the excellent work.
You're welcome! I'm also an MD/PHD, whose PHD took longer than average and I had to go back to undergrad for an additional 2 years because I wasn't pre-med in college. Then 6 years of residency and fellowship (pediatric neurology/epilepsy). The first year I made more than the SS wage base was about age 41. So I've done this type of math before. E.g. how long do I have to work to "capture" most of my maximal benefit? :happy In any case, I'm now only a part time physician, and the rest of my time is devoted to my not-for-profit work. So I'm just barely earning above the SSWB. And because of having a part-time salary, Social Security will replace a much larger percentage of my salary than otherwise. I'm grateful for SS. :D
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by LSLover » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:10 pm

neurosphere wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:48 pm
ram wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:20 pm
Neurosphere,
My question pertains to professionals (physicians etc) who due to their long training frequently do not work for 35 years.
Assuming that from day 1 to the last working day the annual salary of a professional is more than the social security wage base what is the minimum number of years that such a person has to work to get maximal SS benefits.
When I played with the calculator about 15 years got you fairly close to maximal benefit. Increments after that were modest.
That leads to my next question : How many years of work for such a person gives you >= 90% of the maximal benefit?
If it matters let us assume that the first day of work for this person is at age 40. (MD PhD neurosurgeon with a couple of fellowships).
For this discussion let us disregard any benefits to the spouse from longer work years.
Here's a chart, birthdate of 1965, started training at age 32, started main job at age 40 earning the max each year. Choose your earnings "stop" date (e.g. retirement) on the X axis, and look up to the lines. Each line is your benefit depending on when you choose to receive your benefit. Age 70 at the top, age 62 at the bottom. This assumes no inflation or wage growth, as per the typical SS benefit estimates.

Image

Now, here is a similar graph, but instead, assuming you started maximal earnings at age 25, such that you have earned 35 years of maximal earnings prior to age 62. This graph shows what SS benefit you "could have had", had you started full earnings earlier.

Image

Note that the table at the top of the screenshots assumes you stop work and receive a benefit in the same year. Instead, the graph allows you to decouple the retirement date from the benefit date. Let me know if you need any help interpreting the output.
Neurosphere,

With the new 2.8% COLA out, how do we adjust your estimator?

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:27 pm

LSLover wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:10 pm
Neurosphere,

With the new 2.8% COLA out, how do we adjust your estimator?
Until I update it (hopefully before January 2019, but depends on my schedule), simply add 2.8% to the benefit. The benefit as it currently is, is in terms of September 2017 dollars. Add 2.8%, and it will roughly be in terms of Sept 2018 dollars.

I say "roughly" because I can't remember right now whether I used the actual CPI as of Sept 2017, or the average of the 2017 3rd quarter CPI, which is how SS calculates the COLA.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:44 am

When I compare this spreadsheet to the Anypia, the two agree for age 67 and age 70. But not early age 62+1 month.

Weird how only different in that one scenario. Any ideas?

For both me and my wife, top line is Anypia with "none" for CPI increase and "none" for Avg Wage increase, bottom line is neurosphere results.

Me:
Image

Wife:
Image

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:11 am

jmk wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:44 am
When I compare this spreadsheet to the Anypia, the two agree for age 67 and age 70. But not early age 62+1 month.
The 'SocialSecurity' tab of the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet matches* neurosphere's numbers when using 62 exactly. It matches anypia* when using 62+1 month.

*Within $1.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:27 am

FiveK wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:11 am
jmk wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:44 am
When I compare this spreadsheet to the Anypia, the two agree for age 67 and age 70. But not early age 62+1 month.
The 'SocialSecurity' tab of the personal finance toolbox spreadsheet matches* neurosphere's numbers when using 62 exactly. It matches anypia* when using 62+1 month.

*Within $1.
Thanks FiveK, for pointing out that my "age 62" is really 62+1. I do have the following disclaimer in my instructions tab: "There may be various "edge" effects which are not taken into account, and might make the calculated benefit a little off...."

Claiming "at 62" is one example of an "edge" and in this case 62 really means 62+1. It seems the personal finance toolbox calculations also use a benefit for exactly age 62 as a shortcut. Although to be honest when mentioning "edge effects" I was primarily thinking of the birthdate (e.g. a Dec 31st vs Jan 1 or Jan 2 birthday, and the different ways SS treats those situations).

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:05 am

neurosphere wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:27 am
...also use a benefit for exactly age 62 as a shortcut.
Can one not start SS at exactly age 62?

One ssa.gov example page does say Retirement at age 62 is assumed here to be at exact age 62 and 1 month but another page has We assume the worker in case A begins receiving benefits at the earliest possible age, which is age 62.

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by ObliviousInvestor » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:08 am

FiveK wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:05 am
Can one not start SS at exactly age 62?
You have to be age 62 throughout the entire month. And according to Social Security rules, you reach a given age on the day before your birthday. So if your DoB is on the 1st or 2nd of the month, you can file in the month of your 62nd birthday. Otherwise you have to wait until the following month.

https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/404/404-0311.htm
Mike Piper, author/blogger

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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:22 am

ObliviousInvestor wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:08 am
FiveK wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:05 am
Can one not start SS at exactly age 62?
You have to be age 62 throughout the entire month. And according to Social Security rules, you reach a given age on the day before your birthday. So if your DoB is on the 1st or 2nd of the month, you can file in the month of your 62nd birthday. Otherwise you have to wait until the following month.

https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/cfr20/404/404-0311.htm
Hi OI! I was literally in the middle of writing a more full reply (with the help of sscritic), which essentially says what you wrote.

You'll note my calculator does not ask for the date of your birth (neither month not year). As per the instructions tab:
We believe the calculator is "exactly" accurate for those with a Jan 2nd birthday, and January claiming date (but I do not attest to this claim). In this case, all earnings from the year prior and any delayed retirement credits are credited to the benefit age/year, and credited to the current year (even if some increases due to recent earnings, for example, may be paid retroactively)

There may be various "edge" effects which are not taken into account, and might make the calculated benefit a little off. Jan 1 birthdays for example, perhaps other first of month birthdays, etc. 
jmk, try re-running anypia, but this time change your birthday to the first and also the second of the month, and see what happens to your results. It should be educational. :)

In general I'm proud of how closely this calculator matches anypia and other calculators, main output was always meant to be the graph, where you'll note that it displays an annual total benefit, and the lines are "thick". The point was not necessarily to calculate exactly what you'll get, but to visualize the relationship between claiming ages, additional earnings, etc, and also to see where there might be bend points or other places where the slope of the line changes with extra earnings or additional time.

neurosphere

P.S. Here is what sscritic kindly provided:
To claim an old age benefit, you must have “attained” age 62 for the whole month.

Sec. 202. [42 U.S.C. 402] (a) Every individual who—
(1) is a fully insured individual (as defined in section 214(a)),
(2) has attained age 62,

in the case of an individual who has attained age 62, but has not attained retirement age (as defined in section 216(l)), the first month throughout which such individual meets the criteria specified in paragraphs (1) and (2)

You attain an age the day before your birthday. For example, the day before your first birthday was the last day of your first year of life; your birthday is the first day of your second year of life.

So how do you meet the throughout requirement? Born on the 28, 29, 30, or 31? Obviously for the following month, but not for the month of your birthday. Born on the 1st? You attained age 62 in the previous month (previous day), so obviously attained for the whole month. Born on the 2nd? A little trickier. You attained age 62 on the first, and you attain an age at the first minute of the day, so yes, attained for the whole month.

Birthday after the 2nd means that you can’t claim until 62 + 1.
If you have to ask "Is a Target Date fund right for me?", the answer is "Yes".

jmk
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by jmk » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:28 am

That must be it. My wife’s birthday is late in December. Mine is early February but not first couple days.

It sounds like your spreadsheet should assume 62+1 month for 93% of cases. :)

Btw thank you for sharing this spreadsheet.
Last edited by jmk on Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:40 am, edited 5 times in total.

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FiveK
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by FiveK » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:35 am

Interesting nuance - thanks to all for the details!

Seems that even anypia is not necessarily the final answer (but probably close enough for practical purposes). Per the anypia user guide:
Although we have tried to be as accurate as possible, this is not the same program as is used for
official Social Security calculations and it may produce results that differ from an official
calculation. In particular, for primary benefits, we have made approximations for pre-1965
benefits and for the frozen minimum PIA, and we only partially take account of disability nonexclusion
calculations. In addition, the calculator is not set up to estimate dependent or survivor
benefits in situations where the dependent or survivor also receives benefits based on their own
record, or survivor benefits where the benefit is affected by the worker's retired worker benefit
prior to death. Based on experience to date, the Calculator matches the official calculations very
well, with most differences due to late posting of earnings to the earnings record, or different
assumptions for projected benefits.

UnclePennybags
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by UnclePennybags » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:34 am

As an Apple guy who can't use anypia, this spreadsheet is a great tool and has proven very useful to me. I'm in a situation where I could pay myself a salary from a company I own and it was interesting to see how little my benefit would increase by doing so now that my AIME is already pretty high.

For my fellow Apple people, this spreadsheet won't work in Numbers due to differences in how it handles ranges. If you use OpenOffice (or Office online), it will work just fine.

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:41 am

UnclePennybags wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:34 am
As an Apple guy who can't use anypia, this spreadsheet is a great tool and has proven very useful to me. I'm in a situation where I could pay myself a salary from a company I own and it was interesting to see how little my benefit would increase by doing so now that my AIME is already pretty high.

For my fellow Apple people, this spreadsheet won't work in Numbers due to differences in how it handles ranges. If you use OpenOffice (or Office online), it will work just fine.
Thanks for the validation (and confirmation that it works in OpenOffice). If people find it useful, I'll continue to keep it current. In fact, I'm working on an update to include the most recently released wage and price inflation data, such that the new spreadsheet will match the newly released anypia version 2019.1.

I hope to have the update available later today.

UnclePennybags
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by UnclePennybags » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:53 am

neurosphere wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:41 am
Thanks for the validation (and confirmation that it works in OpenOffice). If people find it useful, I'll continue to keep it current. In fact, I'm working on an update to include the most recently released wage and price inflation data, such that the new spreadsheet will match the newly released anypia version 2019.1.

I hope to have the update available later today.

Great! I noticed that the inflation number was off and you hadn't updated the new maximum contribution yet. It was easy enough to get an approximate figure but it is comforting if you match the official website to the dollar. I was tooling up to build my own spreadsheet when I stumbled across yours, so I have a pretty good appreciation for the work required to build the model and I learned a few tricks from how you did the bend point calculations. Very slick.

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:37 am

New calculator available here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Atj-cegEXidXx07Xr-4ypoXhDx8S

I think I'll create a new thread soon to announce it.

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neurosphere
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Re: Downloadable Social Security Benefit Estimator (repost)

Post by neurosphere » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:48 am

neurosphere wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:37 am
New calculator available here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!Atj-cegEXidXx07Xr-4ypoXhDx8S

I think I'll create a new thread soon to announce it.
New thread is here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=262772

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