Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

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Perkunas
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Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Perkunas »

Wife and I are 35 years old. I'm trying to think about, and plan for, retirement, but I'm having a hard time wrestling with social security benefits. Based on current projections, our social security earnings at full-retirement-age would provide approx 55-65% of our current expenses (I imagine our retirement expenses will be similar to current).

What do other folks do when projecting social security benefits 30+ years into the future?

If current SS #s hold true, my wife and I would barely need to max-out our annual 401ks, yet we could retire early at age 55. If SS gets axed by 50%, we would need to max our 401ks for the next 20yrs, plus save another $22k per year for the next 20 years.

I know there is no exact answer, but what do yall think?
janeway
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by janeway »

I generally hope for the best and plan for the worst. When I created a retirement spreadsheet I assumed I wouldn't get any. Most people like to build in a little extra safety into their projections just in case (ie plan for a 3% SWR when they know 4% should be okay still). I view it as part of that extra padding.


Realistically though I expect it to exist when I retire (even though I'm in my 20's). The reason isn't because it makes financial sense or the numbers add up but rather I expect most people won't properly plan for retirement. if this happens and social security is gone then we have starving senior citizens all of which will vote for whoever promises to reinstate social security. So I'm guessing it will still be around based only on the fact that some people may rely on it for survival.
runner540
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by runner540 »

Hope for >$0
Planning for $0. Several decades to go until I know how it turns out. Like janeway, I view this as padding against negative changes in other aspects of planning (from higher healthcare/Medicare premiums, to future legislative/tax changes that can't be discussed on this forum).
I view my SS premiums as money out the door, that goes to my grandparents, and soon, parents.
Goal33
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Goal33 »

I'm 25. I plan for 79% per the expected payout once SS trust fund runs out of money.

Well, I take that back. At my age I am actually not making any plans. Just saving as much as I can. Will plan more when the picture is clearer.
Jags4186
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Jags4186 »

I plan for 0 but expect 100% of the benefit. I don't believe any politician will vote to lower social security payouts if they wish to be reelected.
gouverneur
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by gouverneur »

I project conservatively for about 50% of what we would get under current rules. My rationale is that the long-term funding shortfall implies the need for a 21% cut, and there may be means testing or other devices that reduce the payouts for those with significant assets.

I don't see it being 0%, quite frankly if it's 0% we will have much more serious stuff to worry about than the impact on our projected spending.
downshiftme
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by downshiftme »

I generally hope for the best and plan for the worst. When I created a retirement spreadsheet I assumed I wouldn't get any. Most people like to build in a little extra safety into their projections just in case (ie plan for a 3% SWR when they know 4% should be okay still). I view it as part of that extra padding.
I'm too old and close to retirement to be considered a young-ish Boglehead, but I'm using this same planning idea. At some point, probably close to age 70, I will start collecting whatever SS is then available, but it serves as insurance or reinforcements to my original plan. I do expect SS to be available to me, but I'm too risk-averse to make a plan that absolutely depends on promised benefits. Maybe the powers that be will fix the financial problems, maybe it will be means tested, maybe it will offer reduced benefits. Since I cannot know, I an not depending on it, other than as another layer of safety or possibly enriched experiences (such as optional travel) when and if it really hits my bank account.
GoldenFinch
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by GoldenFinch »

Jags4186 wrote:I plan for 0 but expect 100% of the benefit. I don't believe any politician will vote to lower social security payouts if they wish to be reelected.
We also plan for 0 but expect the whole benefit for the same reason.

(Young-ish.)
avalpert
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by avalpert »

Perkunas wrote:Wife and I are 35 years old. I'm trying to think about, and plan for, retirement, but I'm having a hard time wrestling with social security benefits. Based on current projections, our social security earnings at full-retirement-age would provide approx 55-65% of our current expenses (I imagine our retirement expenses will be similar to current).

What do other folks do when projecting social security benefits 30+ years into the future?

If current SS #s hold true, my wife and I would barely need to max-out our annual 401ks, yet we could retire early at age 55. If SS gets axed by 50%, we would need to max our 401ks for the next 20yrs, plus save another $22k per year for the next 20 years.

I know there is no exact answer, but what do yall think?
Are you sure you are looking at the correct projections - the basic number social security provides assume you will continue to earn at your current level until retirement - if you were to retire at 55 then that obviously wouldn't be the case. You need to use one of their calculators to do more precise estimates. For example, for me my current estimate if I work to full retirement age is $1100 a month higher than if I stop working at 52 (as I currently plan) and start taking social security at 67.

As for expectations, I currently expect benefits to be close enough to what they are projecting that it is fine to use those number for planning purposes.
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warowits
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by warowits »

I assume that it will be around at about 75%-85%. I assume that they will fiddle with increases/inflation to get to that level without actually "cutting" SS. For someone saving for and thinking about retirement you will likely only be getting about 40% of your retirement income (perhaps far less!) from SS. A 25% cut to 40% of your retirement shouldn't put you out on the street.
Traveler
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Traveler »

I'm not young (45), but am planning on ~75% of what the current rules would provide. I may be surprised or I may be disappointed, but I'm guessing I will survive either way since many retirees live solely on SS and I'm at least pretty sure that won't be me.
mpsz
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by mpsz »

In my mid-late 20's. Like others said, planning for $0.

I think automation is also an important thing to consider. If jobs are lost at the expected pace, the system will look completely different. But I don't think it can ever be completely eliminated, there's just too many people who are unable/unwilling to save for their retirement.

So I'll plan for $0, as I don't like blindly trusting the system... especially one that is known to be broken/struggling. Realistically I'd expect SS or its successor to pay ~50-75% of expected benefits.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by steadyeddy »

None of us know what the future holds (SS, market returns, health, etc), so we do whatever seems prudent. I expect social security will pay 100% since it keeps a huge number of people off the streets, but it's a very uneducated guess.
benne77
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by benne77 »

I am 24 and I am planning on 0 and expecting 0. My guess is that social security will still exist but only for those with nest eggs under 1million.
daveydoo
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by daveydoo »

Thought I was young(ish) for BH but I seem to be old for this thread (!). I "expect" some SS in retirement but we are counting on none -- and planning accordingly.
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jmg229
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by jmg229 »

Goal33 wrote:I'm 25. I plan for 79% per the expected payout once SS trust fund runs out of money.

Well, I take that back. At my age I am actually not making any plans. Just saving as much as I can. Will plan more when the picture is clearer.
We are in our early 30s and my opinion is pretty much this. Not close enough that I'm worrying about the details, and there are so many other things that could impact our retirement more (such as future income/ability to save, longterm real market returns, etc.). But I'd guess 75-80% or so of benefits as calculated today (plus possible adjustments to FRA) as a minimum. That's the number I used when coming up with an initial retirement investing plan 5 years ago or so.
Startled Cat
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Startled Cat »

I think your expectations should depend on how much you expect to accumulate in assets by retirement age. If you are broke when you retire, I think there's a very good chance that some kind of safety net for the elderly will still exist and will be available to you. If you expect to accumulate substantial assets by retirement age, you might want to heavily discount the possibility of receiving a government pension. In between those extremes, dial back your optimism or skepticism as appropriate.

It would be interesting to see this kind of logic incorporated into Monte Carlo simulations that estimate the chances of running out of money in retirement. They could assume that social security income becomes available in the scenarios where the portfolio gets drawn down, but not the more successful scenarios. It would be even more fun to make hypothetical future properties of social security (e.g. means testing thresholds) into random variables that vary between different simulations.

Since you have the foresight to ask this question and talk about maxing out 401ks, that suggests to me that you're on track to accumulate enough assets that you shouldn't be completely confident in receiving SS. I agree with others who say you should plan for the worst and hope for the best.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Zithron »

I'm 37... planning for $0, like others above. I'm not really that pessimistic, but better safe than sorry.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by tibbitts »

I'd be interested whether those planning on zero payout are also planning on zero real returns from stocks and bonds going forward, since that seems an equally if not more likely worst-case. Well, I guess in theory both social security and real returns could be less than zero (you could have to pay social security taxes out of investment income in retirement, for example.)

I'm not young (but not quite SS age either), and I do think that it might be necessary to figure some diminished benefits, since that's already happened with the raising of the full benefit age, and the taxation of benefits based on other income. But I'm not sure zero is likely, except possibly for the very wealthy.

It just seems wrong to count on positive investment returns more than you'd count on some amount of social security being paid in exchange for the employment taxes you've paid in. Possibly there would be a buy-out plan at some point, although where the government would come up with the cash for such a plan I have no idea.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Geist »

DW & I are 31/30, and social security is not entering into my planning at all. Problem is that over the next 30-40 years, there's almost guaranteed to be so much change in the program, in the government, and in our society that I fully expect SS to be radically different. If the program still exists and means testing or something else doesn't disqualify me from drawing SS, I'll do so. But until I've got a check in hand, I will not count on seeing a cent. I'm far more confident in my ability to save & invest successfully than I am in the government to successfully manage SS.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by daveydoo »

tibbitts wrote: It just seems wrong to count on positive investment returns more than you'd count on some amount of social security being paid in exchange for the employment taxes you've paid in.
The former depends upon global markets, whereas the latter hinges upon a single piece of legislation (i.e., salesmanship by one party) in one country.

These seem entirely uncorrelated to me. But I guess lack of correlation is good, right? :happy
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by AlohaJoe »

Perkunas wrote:If SS gets axed by 50%, we would need to max our 401ks for the next 20yrs, plus save another $22k per year for the next 20 years.
If SS gets axed by 50% you'll need to save more than that.

There is no scenario where Social Security gets reduced but Medicare doesn't. So if you're assuming Social Security gets reduced by 50% then you should also assume you'll need to start paying $10,000 a year for elderly health care.

Young people who assume Social Security will be 0% but Medicare will be 100% are incoherent.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by AlohaJoe »

To answer the OP: I'm 41 and assuming I will get 80-100% of what the Social Security Administration currently projects for me.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Nate79 »

37 years old and saving as much money as possible. Planning is fine but the reality is that the future is unknown. All I can try to do is save save save.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Social Security is not a retirement program, it is insurance. The full title is Social Security Disability Insurance. Social Security will pay out its full promise and then is projected to begin paying out roughly 75% of current FRA payments beginning in the year 2033. My suggestion is you bank on receiving 75% of your anticipated FRA benefits. In the meantime you keep saving, because the only way to capture the full benefit of compounding is to save your money and invest it for a long, long time.

After having said that, my next suggestion is to go out and enjoy your youth.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by vitaflo »

I have two numbers. One with SS and one without. I make sure I'm on track to hit the number without SS by age 65, because you never know. However when I hit the number that includes SS (at 100%) I will then see where the wind blows in that regard. I think it's easier to do so then, as I'll be older and I'll have a better idea of what may or may not happen.

This allows me to make sure I'm ok to retire at a typical age regardless of what happens, but gives me the opportunity to retire early if it looks like I'll be getting a benefit.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by DVMResident »

Same age as you, OP. I plan on near $0, but that's because I plan to FIRE on my 50th.

If I was planning to work to 67, I use the same guesstimate as gouverneur: x2 shortfall, which roughly half of current benefits, assuming some sort of means testing or inflationary decay (e.g. CPI-rural replacing CPI-urban) or higher taxes payroll taxes (which may maintain current payouts but decrease savings rates).

IMO, medical coverage is the bigger and less predictable question. SS is fairly easy to model somewhere between current levels and less than now. Medical is a total wild card: run away medical-CPI continuing or granted benefit? Impossible to model all the possibilities and come away with any meaningful range of expected expenses in retirement.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by *3!4!/5! »

This is easy, I do not need a crystal ball.
I expect $0.
I am certain of this.
It would be insane for me to expect more.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Fudgie »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: After having said that, my next suggestion is to go out and enjoy your youth.
The last few generations enjoyed their youth...and here we are. :P

I think you not only have to assume lower payouts, but also increased contributions from your employment income.

I expect the ceiling to be raised on the upper income limits, and the contribution rate to increase by a few percent
TX_Man
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by TX_Man »

Currently planning for $0, anything over that will be considered a bonus.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by StevieG72 »

I am 45 and don't think too much about SS.

Live below my means, save a huge portion of my income.

Anything from SS will be icing on the cake.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by jharkin »

Age 41 here.

I built my own retirement planning sheet where I can model with different levels of SS. Like others I make a baseline plan assuming that SS will payout 75% of expected benefits. I also periodically run the numbers with 0 SS. I use conservative market returns (4% stock, 1% bond real return) and I find a target retirement date that will get me to age 100 without running out of money (around 3% SWR) with no SS and double check that through firecalc. My goal is to make this retirement date a year after we finish paying for the kids college.

If I then put back in 75% SS it says my net worth will actually keep growing through retirement once SS kicks in. Which to me translates to the ability to travel and spend a bit more.

I assume I will continue to adjust as the time draws near and will work more or less years as needed. One big question mark is what will health insurance options look like for early retirees in 15-20 years. I may end up forced to work till 65 just because of healthcare even if I dont need the extra saving time otherwise...

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:Social Security is not a retirement program, it is insurance. The full title is Social Security Disability Insurance. Social Security will pay out its full promise and then is projected to begin paying out roughly 75% of current FRA payments beginning in the year 2033. My suggestion is you bank on receiving 75% of your anticipated FRA benefits. In the meantime you keep saving, because the only way to capture the full benefit of compounding is to save your money and invest it for a long, long time.

After having said that, my next suggestion is to go out and enjoy your youth.
If we reallllly want to get technical, the full name is "Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance". This is why its labelled OASDI on your paycheck. The "old age" part is the one you get at FRA. Disability is for folks who become disabled and cant work before FRA.

Either way the keyword is "insurance"... Think of it as a longevity insurance plan put in place by the government not to insure any of us a comfortable retirement on that alone, but rather to be a backstop supplement to insure we dont end up living on the street if we outlive our savings.

Agree that folks should go out and enjoy youth. Interesting that in the general public most people enjoy youth too much and dont plan for the future, but here on bogleheads the average member seems to obsess about retirement saving so much I wonder if they actually do anything but work, sit at home and eat ramen ;)

(before anyone flames me I'm exaggerating to make a joke)
Last edited by jharkin on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by awval999 »

I'm 31, and I expect the full legal amount.

Here's a fun tool to play around with, as you can see (without getting into how you do it, as it's political) it's just not that hard to fix it. As with all things political, the politicians don't want to fix it until they have to. Because the choices are all losers.

http://www.crfb.org/socialsecurityreformer/
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by knpstr »

I'm 32, I'm planning on $0.

I think we are likely to get some percentage of the promised amount perhaps 50-70% of the current promised amount.

I would be surprised if we got 100% of the promised amount since when I use the quick calculator it says my benefit will be $9,254/mo in future (inflated) dollars at age 67 and $12,513 at age 70

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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Tamarind »

30. I plan to be able to retire without social security. With social security I should be able to retire early. I don't see much point in trying to model now since it's too far in the future and many things will change besides government budgets and policy.

The most recent research I saw suggested that the trust fund would get a boost from boomers working longer than expected. No one has mentioned yet that we are likely to have at least a decade's notice of any changes that will affect our age cohort, as politicians would, I think, be extra wary of changing the rules on those who have no time to save more.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by harvestbook »

I plan for the best and plan for the worst. I don't count on Social Security. If it happens, great.
Last edited by harvestbook on Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by femur »

I am surprised this thread is not yet locked by the moderators.

I am also surprised that so many young Bogleheads do not believe that they will receive any social security. I wonder if this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

I am in my mid thirties and share this view. I expect to receive $0 social security benefits.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by harvestbook »

Why would it be locked?
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femur
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by femur »

harvestbook wrote:Why would it be locked? It seems an important part of financial planning. (Admittedly, I am a relative newbie so maybe this veers into politics too much, but it seems like a critical planning and finance topic based on math and not just politics.) I apologize if I veered off course, but I consider responsible planning to include all possibilities.

It would be locked because it is political and non-actionable: rules#section-4
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Lindrobe »

I am 35 years old and husband is 37. I don't know if we are young or not :happy, but I plan for $0 social security. Then if we end up getting a little something, it will just be extra income. We both max out our 401k and backdoor Roths, so we save $47k per year for retirement.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by harvestbook »

femur wrote:
harvestbook wrote:Why would it be locked? It seems an important part of financial planning. (Admittedly, I am a relative newbie so maybe this veers into politics too much, but it seems like a critical planning and finance topic based on math and not just politics.) I apologize if I veered off course, but I consider responsible planning to include all possibilities.

It would be locked because it is political and non-actionable: rules#section-4
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by deltaneutral83 »

I think most young folks are planning on 0 for obvious reasons but the likelihood of receiving 50-75% seems most reasonable. The point earlier about SS and Medicare being tired together is important. This is BH, not the real world. I gasp at the % of people above 65 who would be on the street or moving in with one of their kids without SS. I have an HSA where it's FICA deducted and all else equal with my pay right now, I am right at band two to where it's not economically the most sense to have it FICA deducted but I want it to invest my way rather than the Govt's.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

Let's talk about statistics, probability and current trends:

For those who expect $0 - think about this: right now there is a large pile of assets in the retirement trust that is earning interest, at the same time, there is a large population of income-earning workers who are currently paying into the trust every month. Now, let's look at the Gen Y, Millennial and what ever the new generation is called, I guess Generation Z. Millennials outnumber Gen Y, so you Gen Y'ers out there, don't despair because the Millenials and Gen Z are going to carry you forward with no problem, and so on and so forth. There are many ways to fix the problem that really doesn't exist, a little tweak here and little tweak there and there will be zero problems.

As far as what you can do? Think about this plan - invest in your 401k plan, if you don't have a 401k, open an IRA, open a taxable account.
If you do have a 401k and you have the ability to save something on the side, do so. If not now, when you do have extra. Buy any financial instrument you like - a balanced fund, an equity fund, an I bond - the purpose of this money is for retirement, it's not your car fund, it's not your house fund.

But as I said above, don't forget to relax and enjoy life too.
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by jharkin »

deltaneutral83 wrote: I gasp at the % of people above 65 who would be on the street or moving in with one of their kids without SS.
Bingo. Statistics I have seen are that the average US household age 55-65 has something like only $100k saved for retirement and a full third of households in that range have nothing at all. Probably more than a third have zero or negative real net worth when you add consumer debt and mortgages. A staggeringly large % of people live in retirement on nothing but SS and some home equity, and lots of folks in their 70s working part time jobs in retail etc to supplement out of need, not boredom. I have many close relatives in this situation so its reality, not a statistic to me.

The system will never be completely abolished unless the US economy has already devolved into Mad Max IM(not so)HO, its politically impossible...
Last edited by jharkin on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
Rainmaker41
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Rainmaker41 »

I'll by 27 for the 2017 tax year. My by-then-wife will still be 26.

My pessimistic overall retirement expectation:

$11,000 contributed to our Roth IRAs every year until retirement in 60's, with assumed 2% real annual growth. 0% of promised Social Security benefits. I do not think this is likely (politically impossible barring outright Great Depression-level economic catastrophe), but am planning worst-case scenario if only as a motivation to save.

My moderate overall retirement expectation:

$11,000 contributed to our Roth IRAs every year until retirement in 60's, with assumed 2% real annual growth. 50%+ of 'promised' Social Security benefits (whether increased tax/duplicated means testing on 'same' benefits or simply reduced benefits). Modest 403b/401k contributions due to not-amazing careers (more detailed tax planning/Roth vs. traditional adjustments would be needed later on to ensure full use of 0-10% tax brackets in retirement). This most likely scenario projects decent living conditions with a bit of a surplus for recreation & inheritances if applicable / charitable legacy. I'd expect lower investment returns sooner than Social Security being abolished or cut below 'half'.

My optimistic overall retirement expectation:

$11,000 contributed to our Roth IRAs every year until retirement in 60's, with assumed 3% real annual growth. 75-100% of 'promised' Social Security benefits. Moderate 403b/401k contributions and a decent house paid off. This fairly likely scenario would make us more well off than the 'typical' family earning considerably more than us.

In all cases, children are a nontrivial unknown with potential to render all projections obsolete. I can't control Social Security, although I will advocate for it on behalf of both relatives and myself. I'll hope for it, and have a nicer retirement if we get most of it.
Last edited by Rainmaker41 on Mon Apr 03, 2017 8:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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letsgobobby
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by letsgobobby »

it's actionable to decide how much to plan for. just avoid speculation about how and why and focus on what.

we are early 40s and expect at least 50% of earned benefit. if I were lower income I would expect 75-100%. like many respondents to this thread, I don't believe we will "need" or rely on any of it. we will be financially independent without any benefit.

as someone else asked, I wonder if the OP did his calculations correctly.
livesoft
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by livesoft »

And from the other end, I received my SSA info on future benefits last month. I had my spouse look up her benefits online, too. Can you imagine that we would receive over $70K a year together when we start SS? That is calculated with future contributions of $0. That's more than our expenses today. My spouse started to wonder why we saved any money in 401(k) plans.
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market timer
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by market timer »

I made it just past the first bend point before leaving the US. When combined with the 50% bump for my wife, SS projects I'll get close to $20K/year at age 67. I expect something in this vicinity, a very nice ROI on my contributions.
Da5id
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Da5id »

Seems like this is inherently a political question. Can't imagine how to make a projection without considering the politics of social security, the constituencies defending it, the budgetary forces involved, etc.

That said, I'm not really youngish boglehead (~50). I expect to get social security basically as it is defined now, though it will mostly be gravy anyway for me. If I had to crystal ball the farther future, I expect SS to survive in a somewhat close fashion to how it is today, as it seems hard to change. Like most things, though, it is best to be cautious. If I were in my 20s-30s, I'd project reduced and perhaps partially means tested benefits just to be on the conservative side.
Accrual
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Re: Young-ish bogleheads: How much (if any) social security do you expect in retirement?

Post by Accrual »

Zero.
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