Nasdaq Record High....

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Toons
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Nasdaq Record High....

Post by Toons » Wed Feb 25, 2015 2:07 pm

Ok,,,gazing into the crystal ball,In the not too distant future ,in the financial news the headline will read:

"Today over 15 years later the Nasdaq Composite index surpassed its record high of 5,132.52 On March 10, 2000"


You heard it here "first" :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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gasdoc
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by gasdoc » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:16 pm

That was not a good day to invest a large sum of money. I purchased my daughter's entire 529 plan all at one time in 1998, almost the top, and the account regained what it lost only recently. Thankfully, I sold some other accounts to fund it so I came out even. It must be time to put in another batch!

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Toons
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by Toons » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:25 pm

gasdoc wrote:That was not a good day to invest a large sum of money. I purchased my daughter's entire 529 plan all at one time in 1998, almost the top, and the account regained what it lost only recently. Thankfully, I sold some other accounts to fund it so I came out even. It must be time to put in another batch!
You aren't alone,,,I was caught up in the tech craze myself and exchanged some conservative mutual funds for tech funds,,,at the top.
Later upon reading about the crash ,,,,,after a trend continues for a period of time investors are duped into thinking it is different this time.
Live and learn :happy
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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mudfud
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by mudfud » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:28 pm

Yes, time to buy JDS Uniphase! :twisted:
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rob
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by rob » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:38 pm

I refuse to discuss my role in the late 90's investing on the grounds it will make me look STUPID :shock: :oops:

You're not the only person to have....er... considerable capital losses for years after that :(
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

johnubc
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by johnubc » Wed Feb 25, 2015 3:42 pm

mudfud wrote:Yes, time to buy JDS Uniphase! :twisted:
Ha HA!! You might be on to something. There is another bunch on the same band wagon - http://www.optionmonster.com/news/artic ... 01578.html

I did lose much on JDSU back in the day - but have also made quite a bit from them - and learned even more.

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laughlinlvr
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by laughlinlvr » Wed Feb 25, 2015 4:19 pm

When the NASDAQ collapsed I queried a colleague on what he planned to do. He had only recently put all his retirement savings into tech mutual funds. (I seem to remember Janus was big back then.) He told me that he would wait for the "market" to come back and then he would sell.
Over the past decade and a half - and as a Boglehead - I would read of this particular phenomenon in behavioral finance. I can't remember the name of the bias, but I know that it's the one that has to do with not recognizing losses so long as they remain paper losses.
Every now and again I would wonder how his retirement plan was fairing as he waited for NASDAQ to return to record territory. Of course, I'm sure he recognized the loss some time back. The trouble is we lost contact shortly after the tech bubble and moved to other projects. Still, it's his face that I put on this particular bias.
Investing - The hardest way to make an easy living.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by Toons » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:33 am

"On the way,the train left the station years ago"
Ok,,,gazing into the crystal ball,In the not too distant future ,in the financial news the headline will read:

"Today over 15 years later the Nasdaq Composite index surpassed its record high of 5,132.52 On March 10, 2000"


You heard it here "first" :sharebeer :thumbsup
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

ShiftF5
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by ShiftF5 » Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:42 am

mudfud wrote:Yes, time to buy JDS Uniphase! :twisted:
In a twisted kind of way I'm grateful for having suffered the pain 15 years ago.

That pushed me to explore and educate myself.

Hello Bogleheads.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Mar 02, 2015 12:08 pm

rob wrote:I refuse to discuss my role in the late 90's investing on the grounds it will make me look STUPID :shock: :oops:

You're not the only person to have....er... considerable capital losses for years after that :(
Yes......capital losses.......

I like to think that my horrible, ignorant, misguided financial mistakes made between 1995ish and 2004ish led me to learn valuable lessons that I can teach my kids. My family is so much better off now because we learned so much from our foolish and expensive mistakes. Of course, I would have rather learned from someone else's mistakes.

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ivyhedge
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by ivyhedge » Mon Mar 02, 2015 1:30 pm

The nominal closing high was just shy of 5050, with an intra-day high of ~5130.

In adjusted terms, target 6900: that's your next stop! ;)
Polymath.

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rob
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by rob » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:01 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:Of course, I would have rather learned from someone else's mistakes.
I would have preferred 3rd hand as well but no doubt it would not be as crystal clear as it is for me now.....

I love that anti-motivation poster with a picture of a sinking ship tagged with... Sometimes your life is just meant as a warning to others :D
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

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steve roy
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by steve roy » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:20 pm

It's my experience that we learn best by making mistakes and learning the lesson they provide. On the other hand ...

"After a cat jumps on a hot stove, he never jumps on a hot stove again.
But he never jumps on a COLD one, either."

-- Mark Twain

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matjen
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by matjen » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:24 pm

I was victimized by Cisco (CSCO). Although many point to the obvious dot com stocks like etoys or pets.com but don't forget you can lose a bundle being in a company that has dominated its space for the past 15 years as well. Expectations were just too crazy.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by ShiftF5 » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:39 pm

matjen wrote:I was victimized by Cisco (CSCO). Although many point to the obvious dot com stocks like etoys or pets.com but don't forget you can lose a bundle being in a company that has dominated its space for the past 15 years as well. Expectations were just too crazy.
Yes.

Enron
Global Crossing
Nortel...

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:44 pm

matjen wrote:I was victimized by Cisco (CSCO). Although many point to the obvious dot com stocks like etoys or pets.com but don't forget you can lose a bundle being in a company that has dominated its space for the past 15 years as well. Expectations were just too crazy.
The real culprit was Worldcom. Their executive made a presentation with the humongous forecasts of traffic over fiber networks, and everyone, including their competitors such as AT&T, started defining their business plans based on these projections. Later, Worldcom has admitted that they had made a mistake of several orders of magnitude.

The culprits of my own downfall were Nortel and Money Magazine. Money defined a new metric PEG, Price/Earnings divided by Growth; the lower PEG was the higher potential the stock had. In 2000, PEG of Nortel was twice that of Lucent. I worked for Bell Labs, felt that Lucent was superior to Nortel, and started moving my 401(k) funds into Lucent.

Interestingly, Lucent is still alive as Alcatel-Lucent whereas Nortel is long gone.

Victoria
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by baw703916 » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:53 pm

VictoriaF wrote: Money defined a new metric PEG, Price/Earnings divided by Growth; the lower PEG was the higher potential the stock had. In 2000, PEG of Nortel was twice that of Lucent. I worked for Bell Labs, felt that Lucent was superior to Nortel, and started moving my 401(k) funds into Lucent.

Interestingly, Lucent is still alive as Alcatel-Lucent whereas Nortel is long gone.

Victoria
So you were right--lower PEG is better! ;)

I actually bought LU after it had crashed (in late 2003). It never recovered.
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by keystone » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:56 pm

ShiftF5 wrote:
mudfud wrote:Yes, time to buy JDS Uniphase! :twisted:
In a twisted kind of way I'm grateful for having suffered the pain 15 years ago.
Same here. Had I not learned my lesson and lost everything (literally) from my investment in PSINet and some others, perhaps I wouldn't have made it to the boglehead course that I am on now. Thankfully I was only really stupid with my taxable accounts and didn't do too much damage to my IRA :happy

I am also amazed at seeing the Nasdaq nearing 5000. A few years ago I remember thinking that the Nasdaq may not ever again see 5,132 in my lifetime. Now I'm not so sure.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by nisiprius » Mon Mar 02, 2015 2:59 pm

At that time I had a print subscription to Wired. I let it expire because I couldn't stand the typography and layout, particularly the page numbers.
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:07 pm

baw703916 wrote:
VictoriaF wrote: Money defined a new metric PEG, Price/Earnings divided by Growth; the lower PEG was the higher potential the stock had. In 2000, PEG of Nortel was twice that of Lucent. I worked for Bell Labs, felt that Lucent was superior to Nortel, and started moving my 401(k) funds into Lucent.

Interestingly, Lucent is still alive as Alcatel-Lucent whereas Nortel is long gone.

Victoria
So you were right--lower PEG is better! ;)
Another memory: Small airplanes flying over our building with large banners stating WE ARE HIRING, followed by Nortel's URL.
baw703916 wrote:I actually bought LU after it had crashed (in late 2003). It never recovered.
In those days, t-shirts served as a market indicator. When LU was a Wall Street darling, we were parading in Lucent-Bell Labs t-shirts and carrying bags with the company logo. After the burst, when one mindlessly displayed something with Lucent insignia, he was getting the full force of the public disdain. New Jersey, the epicenter of the telephone industry, was particularly prone to love-hate of Lucent.

Victoria
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by Toons » Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:14 pm

I recall selling a value oriented mutual fund in March 2000( the month the bubble burst) that I had owned for 15 years ,,to purchase
Janus Global Technology Fund :shock:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by GoldenFinch » Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:35 pm

rob wrote:
GoldenFinch wrote:Of course, I would have rather learned from someone else's mistakes.
I would have preferred 3rd hand as well but no doubt it would not be as crystal clear as it is for me now.....

I love that anti-motivation poster with a picture of a sinking ship tagged with... Sometimes your life is just meant as a warning to others :D
Thank you. Visualizing your poster made me both laugh and feel depressed at the same time. I think I've discovered an emotion for which there is yet to be an emoticon.

This thread is bringing back memories of Sun Microsystems. :shock:

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bertie wooster
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by bertie wooster » Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:40 pm

Great thread - I got burned on many of the stocks talked about as well as some other choice ones.

I view it as tuition for learning the "right" way to invest.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Mar 02, 2015 3:50 pm

bertie wooster wrote: I view it as tuition for learning the "right" way to invest.
My disastrous investing in Lucent has thrown me in 2001 into the arms of the Morningstar Diehards. Mel, Taylor and Bob Stowe have caught me on the way down and helped me to reverse the course. My successful retirement is largely thanks to them, and Jack of course.

Victoria
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baw703916
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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by baw703916 » Mon Mar 02, 2015 4:22 pm

It closed above 5000 today. So it's possible for the premise of the OP to be wrong: a new high could be set less than 15 years after the old one (there's about a week left for that to happen).
Most of my posts assume no behavioral errors.

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Re: Nasdaq Record High....

Post by yukon50 » Mon Mar 02, 2015 5:05 pm

anyone have any victories from back then? besides lessons learned

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