Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Non-investing personal finance issues including insurance, credit, real estate, taxes, employment and legal issues such as trusts and wills
Post Reply
investingdad
Posts: 1178
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2013 10:41 pm

Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by investingdad » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:27 am

So I turn 40 this month and I have "found" my net worth prediction spreadsheet. I say "found" because when our hard drive crashed this year I lost the file. :annoyed But, I found it on my Yahoo mail as I forwarded it to myself from my employer's computer 8 years ago. So that's good!

It also means I get to see what I was thinking 8 years ago when I last updated it. I always recorded Net Worth on my birthday.

So how were my predictions? How close did I come to predicting our net worth at age 40 back when I was 32?

Well, I was off by 30%.

30%....too low!

Yes, we're doing much better than I had predicted. Some interesting tidbits comparing us from 32 to 40:

- we have exactly the same amount of cash on hand now as we did then (we control to a certain number)
- I under estimated how much our 401K matching contributions would grow
- I over estimated how much we'd have in home equity (by 55K)
- I severely under estimated our total portfolio total (by 300K)
- our net worth is two and a half years ahead of schedule (that's a lot, actually)

Not bad, not bad. Just a couple of public University graduates that started early, made investing a priority, and focused on mutual funds. Keep on keeping on. I'd love to jump back in time 10 years and tell all those folks that chuckled at me when I told them about my spreadsheet that I was right, they were wrong, and "stay the course" and "keep it simple" works GREAT.

User avatar
bottlecap
Posts: 4954
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:21 pm
Location: Tennessee

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by bottlecap » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:35 am

Interesting story. Congrats on your success.

JT

User avatar
Boglenaut
Posts: 3090
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:41 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by Boglenaut » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:48 am

I found one from 12 years ago and just checked it.

When I adjust for inflation, I overestimated by only 0.11% !! The numbers were nearly identical!

I don't think it was my skill at telling the future.. just lucky. My life changed so much there is no way I could have predicted this except by luck.

User avatar
Boglenaut
Posts: 3090
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2009 7:41 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by Boglenaut » Fri Jul 26, 2013 7:55 am

Ah, but I forgot I bought my house with cash in that time period, so am really doing much better than I thought. :) My prediction was off by one house minus one cheap condo I sold.

BW1985
Posts: 1683
Joined: Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:12 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by BW1985 » Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:59 am

Would you mind sharing your spreadsheet template? Interesting idea to track net worth by birthday, or maybe on Jan 1st of every year.
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

MoonOrb
Posts: 861
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:58 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by MoonOrb » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:03 pm

That's fantastic. There's such a sense of accomplishment in meeting or exceeding goals. Stay the course!

User avatar
bogleblitz
Posts: 407
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 2:51 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by bogleblitz » Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:49 pm

I suggest people to save their excel / word documents in google docs or Dropbox.com
People should not rely on their hard drives anymore.

Congrats on your estimates.

Easy Rhino
Posts: 3202
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:13 am
Location: San Diego

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by Easy Rhino » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:22 pm

getting within even 30% is pretty impressive.

kuttolas
Posts: 150
Joined: Tue May 06, 2008 4:11 am

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by kuttolas » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:39 pm

May I ask, How did you calculate the predicted net worth?

I started keeping track of net worth around 3 years ago. I calculate this every 3-4 months. I keep wondering, if I am saving enough?

sesq
Posts: 544
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 9:24 am

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by sesq » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:43 pm

I have in the past found old ones that are about ten years old (same place, old e-mail accounts). I am down about 20% from goal - mostly due to 2008, both the stock and real estate losses. That said, my spreadsheet did not anticipate my compensation growth and in a couple years assuming a "normal" (not 2008) market my stock comp will put me ahead.

I still keep a log with Jan 1 data going back to 2003 when I got married and combined finances.

investingdad
Posts: 1178
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2013 10:41 pm

Re: Turning 40 and my 10 year old spreadsheet

Post by investingdad » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:17 pm

kuttolas wrote:May I ask, How did you calculate the predicted net worth?

I started keeping track of net worth around 3 years ago. I calculate this every 3-4 months. I keep wondering, if I am saving enough?

I assumed my salary and my wife's salary would increase three percent per year.
I assumed we would keep making the maximum contributions to 401k every year.
I assumed a fixed, after tax contribution to investment accounts every month.
I assumed eight percent return each year on average.
I assumed a certain increase in home equity every year.

There really wasn't any secret other than keeping spending under control so that we could make our investments every month.

It really just came down to maintaining discipline.

Post Reply