Tesla S

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

I have been guessing that AP2 was coming soon, but had no idea it would be capable of full Level 5 autonomy, so am happily blown away by that. Now there is at least an actual timeline for AP2 to achieve AP1 parity, so I can start thinking about giving myself a really nice Christmas present ;-). I look forward to being part of the test fleet that will gain increasing levels of autonomous driving capability over the next few years.
:thumbsup

Have you seen the video? A taste of things to come?

Tesla Self-Driving Car Level 5 Autonomy
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

Leif wrote:
I have been guessing that AP2 was coming soon, but had no idea it would be capable of full Level 5 autonomy, so am happily blown away by that. Now there is at least an actual timeline for AP2 to achieve AP1 parity, so I can start thinking about giving myself a really nice Christmas present ;-). I look forward to being part of the test fleet that will gain increasing levels of autonomous driving capability over the next few years.
:thumbsup
Have you seen the video? A taste of things to come?

Tesla Self-Driving Car Level 5 Autonomy
Yes, very cool. I recognize the roads.

This morning I configured and saved my P100D order with all options except rear-facing seats (deep blue metallic, pano roof, standard wheels, black alcantra headliner, dark ash wood decor, black premium seats). Now it appears on My Tesla (Payment Pending) along with my MS70D (Delivered) and the M3 (Reserved). I did a small double-take when I actually got an order number after clicking Save Design.

Now the wait until I have confidence that I'll get AP1 parity by delivery.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
Jack FFR1846
Posts: 18502
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square

Re: Tesla S

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

squirm wrote:


Teslas are awesome. But the owners make up some BS reasons justify them. You aren't saving time, having cheaper service (MB wants 1875 for 4 years of service, tesla wants 2100. ), having a more reliable car (in theory it should be. In reality the decades of experience that companies like Toyota have allow them to make much more reliable cars. Will have to see if Tesla catches up), and a zillion other things. You do have a really nice luxury sedan. If I was buying a 90k car it would be number one on my list. But I wouldn't be blind to all the downsides. And yes it is incredible they way Tesla has been able to expand the luxury market where you have people that have been happy driving <50k dollar cars are willing to pay 2x as much for a new tech toy.
So what is wrong with buying a Tesla? I think that they operate free of using oil is pretty incredible, and worthy for many who Can afford it. Beats buying a other expensive luxury cars that still go from point A to point B powered with using the same old dirty basic ingredients.

Other auto manufactures have had decades to refine their manufacturing process, how long has tesla been in existence....
33% of electric produced in the US is by coal.
33% by natural gas
20% nuke

This is why I call Teslas "coal powered cars".

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 17158
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
squirm
Posts: 4239
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by squirm »

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
squirm wrote:


Teslas are awesome. But the owners make up some BS reasons justify them. You aren't saving time, having cheaper service (MB wants 1875 for 4 years of service, tesla wants 2100. ), having a more reliable car (in theory it should be. In reality the decades of experience that companies like Toyota have allow them to make much more reliable cars. Will have to see if Tesla catches up), and a zillion other things. You do have a really nice luxury sedan. If I was buying a 90k car it would be number one on my list. But I wouldn't be blind to all the downsides. And yes it is incredible they way Tesla has been able to expand the luxury market where you have people that have been happy driving <50k dollar cars are willing to pay 2x as much for a new tech toy.
So what is wrong with buying a Tesla? I think that they operate free of using oil is pretty incredible, and worthy for many who Can afford it. Beats buying a other expensive luxury cars that still go from point A to point B powered with using the same old dirty basic ingredients.

Other auto manufactures have had decades to refine their manufacturing process, how long has tesla been in existence....
33% of electric produced in the US is by coal.
33% by natural gas
20% nuke

This is why I call Teslas "coal powered cars".

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Not in ca.
Coal is dying anyways.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
33% of electric produced in the US is by coal.
33% by natural gas
20% nuke

This is why I call Teslas "coal powered cars".

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
If you're green you should add solar panels to your house. Or perhaps you already have?
Last edited by Leif on Fri Oct 21, 2016 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ualdriver
Posts: 734
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:07 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by ualdriver »

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
squirm wrote:


Teslas are awesome. But the owners make up some BS reasons justify them. You aren't saving time, having cheaper service (MB wants 1875 for 4 years of service, tesla wants 2100. ), having a more reliable car (in theory it should be. In reality the decades of experience that companies like Toyota have allow them to make much more reliable cars. Will have to see if Tesla catches up), and a zillion other things. You do have a really nice luxury sedan. If I was buying a 90k car it would be number one on my list. But I wouldn't be blind to all the downsides. And yes it is incredible they way Tesla has been able to expand the luxury market where you have people that have been happy driving <50k dollar cars are willing to pay 2x as much for a new tech toy.
So what is wrong with buying a Tesla? I think that they operate free of using oil is pretty incredible, and worthy for many who Can afford it. Beats buying a other expensive luxury cars that still go from point A to point B powered with using the same old dirty basic ingredients.

Other auto manufactures have had decades to refine their manufacturing process, how long has tesla been in existence....
33% of electric produced in the US is by coal.
33% by natural gas
20% nuke

This is why I call Teslas "coal powered cars".

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
Saying that Teslas are"coal powered cars" is a bit disingenuous, isn't it? You forgot to include the 13% renewables in your post. Further, by your own linked website wouldn't 67% of Teslas NOT be powered by coal?

My Tesla is nuke and coal powered. I'll take that over the alternative any day.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

I'm waiting delivery End of Nov./Dec. I was told by my DS that I will be getting AP 2.0 hardware :D .

I've also been told to expect a letter from Tesla soon regarding my options for AP. I did purchase AP (of course). Other than the use of additional sensors I don't yet see much functional difference for EAP (Enhanced Autopilot) to see what I'm getting for an additional $2,000. The additional $3,000 for self driving, which activates additional cameras, seems a ways off. I guess when I get the Tesla letter I'll be in a better position to decide to spring for the upgrades prior to delivery.
harikaried
Posts: 2613
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:47 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by harikaried »

Leif wrote:Other than the use of additional sensors I don't yet see much functional difference for EAP (Enhanced Autopilot) to see what I'm getting for an additional $2,000.
From the description of EAP: "The enhancements include going from one to four cameras for greater accuracy, redundancy, and to see fast-approaching vehicles in adjacent lanes."

That sounds like going from only using the main forward camera to additionally using the 2 rearward-looking side camera and narrow/high-speed forward camera. This will allow for automatic lane changing to move past slower vehicles on the highway, so basically once you get on the highway, you shouldn't need to manage switching lanes for traffic or taking the exits.

Alternatively, if you don't go with EAP, I would assume you won't get the "basic" AutoPilot convenience functionality and only the safety AutoPilot features. Unless Tesla specially allows those who purchased the original convenience feature to keep them even with the new hardware.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

harikaried wrote: Alternatively, if you don't go with EAP, I would assume you won't get the "basic" AutoPilot convenience functionality and only the safety AutoPilot features. Unless Tesla specially allows those who purchased the original convenience feature to keep them even with the new hardware.
I'll let you guys know, if you are interested, what my letter/email says.

I assume if I don't upgrade I will get the functionality promised when I purchase AP, which I believe should include "basic" Autopilot (ACC, lane keeping, lane changing with signalling, self parking, etc.). If I'm told it will have increased functionality over basic AP, such as better driving in off highway driving, that would certainly be a plus. Right now AP, from what I've seen on YouTube, does not work too great on winding roads. Not sure if that is a hardware or software limiting issue.
Last edited by Leif on Fri Oct 21, 2016 4:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
squirm
Posts: 4239
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by squirm »

I get nervous enough when my wife drives, and she's a good driver. I don't think I could trust AP on anything but a fairly straight highway with little traffic.
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 17158
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

squirm wrote:I get nervous enough when my wife drives, and she's a good driver. I don't think I could trust AP on anything but a fairly straight highway with little traffic.
Try it; test drives are free. IMO, even AP 1 is a wonderful safety feature.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Hopefully, next month, we will start to see YouTube videos of people that have received or tested AP 2.0 and help clarify the functional differences between Autopilot and Enhanced Autopilot.
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

Leif wrote:I'm waiting delivery End of Nov./Dec. I was told by my DS that I will be getting AP 2.0 hardware :D .
According to what I heard Elon say on the teleconference, you will. He said that all Teslas rolling off the production line now have the new hardware.
Leif wrote:I've also been told to expect a letter from Tesla soon regarding my options for AP. I did purchase AP (of course). Other than the use of additional sensors I don't yet see much functional difference for EAP (Enhanced Autopilot) to see what I'm getting for an additional $2,000. The additional $3,000 for self driving, which activates additional cameras, seems a ways off. I guess when I get the Tesla letter I'll be in a better position to decide to spring for the upgrades prior to delivery.
Since you'll have the new hardware, I think you'll be in the same boat as anyone else with the new hardware, except for the ordering/pricing. So my guess is that either Tesla will give you EAP with no additional charge, or you'll have the choice to kick in an extra $2K for it for drop it entirely.

Based on recent experience, I would guess the latter. Tesla forum users have said that when ludicrous mode was dropped from the 90D, the 90Ds they received did not have it even though they ordered it. I think they were offered an upgrade to 100D(L) for extra $$.

You may not have AP1 parity by November, but Elon says you should be December or shortly thereafter. Of course Elon is famous for over promising on schedules, which is why I'm holding off on submitting my P100D order.

I think I would go for self-driving to save the additional $1K to upgrade, but either way you'll be able to get it.
Leif wrote: I'll let you guys know, if you are interested, what my letter/email says.
Yes please.
Leif wrote:I assume if I don't upgrade I will get the functionality promised when I purchase AP, which I believe should include "basic" Autopilot (ACC, lane keeping, lane changing with signalling, self parking, etc.).
Hmm, I kind of doubt it. You'll be on the new hardware with the 40X faster processor and the neural net learning, so I'd think you'll get whatever EAP is available. I guess Tesla could add code to limit the EAP to AP, but that seems kind of silly for a relatively small subset of cars.
Leif wrote:Right now AP, from what I've seen on YouTube, does not work too great on winding roads. Not sure if that is a hardware or software limiting issue.
Yes, that's my experience. AP works great even on reasonably winding highways, but once I get onto more winding roads I rarely let AP do much of the driving since it drives kind of like a drunk driver, but I still let it try some to contribute to fleet learning.

I think it's mostly a hardware limitation, since they can only do so much with the software without the additional cameras, better sensors, and higher processing power. I think we'll see AP2 pull ahead of AP1 fairly quickly after it reaches parity.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 17158
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by TomatoTomahto »

^^ I had previously limited speed on the Merritt Parkway when using AP, but Tesla 8.0 seems to have improved things.

A few days ago, I was zooming along when my X (seemingly inexplicably) slowed down, and the car ahead of me swerved out of his lane to reveal that the car ahead of him had slowed suddenly (or perhaps the car ahead of me had closed dangerously fast on the car ahead of him). I always set my following distance conservatively, so I don't think it would have been an accident regardless, but great to know that the "radar bouncing" look at the cars ahead works.

I'm a bit meh on Tesla 8.0 media changes, but 100% impressed with the AP changes and 95% impressed with the Nav changes.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
harikaried
Posts: 2613
Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:47 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by harikaried »

Leif wrote:I assume if I don't upgrade I will get the functionality promised when I purchase AP, which I believe should include "basic" Autopilot (ACC, lane keeping, lane changing with signalling, self parking, etc.).
I just stopped by a dealership, and two people confirmed that non-Enhanced AutoPilot has the functionality of the previous 1-camera AutoPilot. They confirmed that the previous AutoPilot Convenience Feature option is now included in the new base configuration.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Kevin M wrote:
Leif wrote:I assume if I don't upgrade I will get the functionality promised when I purchase AP, which I believe should include "basic" Autopilot (ACC, lane keeping, lane changing with signalling, self parking, etc.).
Hmm, I kind of doubt it. You'll be on the new hardware with the 40X faster processor and the neural net learning, so I'd think you'll get whatever EAP is available. I guess Tesla could add code to limit the EAP to AP, but that seems kind of silly for a relatively small subset of cars.
Not a small number of cars, but isn't this what they did by putting in the 75 battery in the 60, then software limiting it? You still got a bit of an advantage since with 60 you can always charge to 100% with no ill effects. I would "guess" this would be the same with the "basic" AP. If they don't grandfather you in to EAP then perhaps they will limit the cameras use by AP.

Should be clarified when I hear from Tesla.

My DS said in an email
My current understanding is that if you’ve already configured with Autopilot you will automatically have the hardware, and you can upgrade to the Enhanced Autopilot software for $2000. Then if you wish to add the Self-Driving Feature that is an additional $3000. However, information is still coming out from the factory. I’d recommend waiting until you receive the email as it should all become clear at that time.
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

Leif wrote:
Kevin M wrote:
Leif wrote:I assume if I don't upgrade I will get the functionality promised when I purchase AP, which I believe should include "basic" Autopilot (ACC, lane keeping, lane changing with signalling, self parking, etc.).
Hmm, I kind of doubt it. You'll be on the new hardware with the 40X faster processor and the neural net learning, so I'd think you'll get whatever EAP is available. I guess Tesla could add code to limit the EAP to AP, but that seems kind of silly for a relatively small subset of cars.
Not a small number of cars, but isn't this what they did by putting in the 75 battery in the 60, then software limiting it? You still got a bit of an advantage since with 60 you can always charge to 100% with no ill effects. I would "guess" this would be the same with the "basic" AP. If they don't grandfather you in to EAP then perhaps they will limit the cameras use by AP.
I don't think these are analogous. Limiting battery power seems relatively simple. The EAP with AP2 hardware is a completely different technology from AP on AP1 hardware. This is why you don't even have the basic AP functionality on AP2 hardware before December. The neural net learning using the hardware on cars now rolling out is required for a couple of months to get EAP/AP2 to AP/AP1 parity.

Clearly they have a solution for not providing the full self-driving functionality to you if you don't pay the extra $3K. I guess they could build something into the cars that were ordered with AP but will be delivered with AP2 hardware to not provide certain EAP features, I still think it's doubtful that they'd do that for just the cars that were ordered over the last three months or so. EAP is the new AP for cars delivered from now on.
Leif wrote: My DS said in an email
My current understanding is that if you’ve already configured with Autopilot you will automatically have the hardware, and you can upgrade to the Enhanced Autopilot software for $2000. Then if you wish to add the Self-Driving Feature that is an additional $3000. However, information is still coming out from the factory. I’d recommend waiting until you receive the email as it should all become clear at that time.
Yes, this is mostly consistent with what I'm saying. Unless Elon was lying or somehow wrong in what he said on the TC, you definitely will get the AP2 hardware, as will anyone whose car is coming off the production line from now on. Based on what I heard Elon say at the TC, all cars coming off the production line now will have the AP2 hardware--it doesn't matter whether or not you ordered AP. They need the AP2 hardware out there for the neural net learning.

But note that your DS said nothing about the actual AP capability you might get if you don't cough up the extra $2K. Keep us posted.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Email from Tesla regarding AP upgrade. Actually, exactly what I expected.
We recently announced that all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including your car, have the new hardware needed for Enhanced Autopilot and ultimately Full Self-Driving capability, at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. With this new hardware come two options not previously available: Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving. These options are available for upgrade now and take the Tesla driving experience to a new level. Now is the perfect opportunity to upgrade your configuration so you can enjoy Enhanced Autopilot features such as automatic lane change, on-ramp to off-ramp navigation, advanced Autosteer and Summon as they roll out.

Simply click the upgrade button below to review and make these enhancements to your current configuration prior to taking delivery, and take advantage of our pre-delivery pricing.

If you choose not to upgrade, your car will delivered with the options you configured, without Enhanced Autopilot features. Post-delivery upgrades will be subject to a $1,000 surcharge.

Thank you for your support and we’re excited for your upcoming delivery.
Enhanced Autopilot option below. I already had order Autopilot

Image

Image
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

^Thanks for sharing this.

So it sounds like they will indeed simply limit the capabilities of EAP to be similar to existing AP unless you cough up the extra $2k. I assume this means, for example, no automatic lane change and the other features specifically mentioned as specific to EAP. I wonder about the specifics, technically. For example, will they limit active cameras to only one, similar to how they limit active cameras from eight (for full self-driving capability) to four for EAP only, or will they still use four active cameras but just limit the functionality in software? I wonder if Tesla will even divulge this.

It could be that AP in your car could still be better than AP in cars with AP1 hardware, due to the much faster processor and other newer technology, especially if they do utilize four cameras in your version of AP.

Personally, I can't imagine not paying the extra $2K for the added EAP functionality, since the incremental percentage cost is minor. Of course this thinking is how I end up with a fully-loaded P100D in my design studio. I probably will rarely use the high-amperage charger, but hey, it might come in handy now and then, and it adds only about 1% to the price (I did not order dual charger option for my MS70D, and I haven't yet been in a situation where it would have been useful). Carbon fiber spoiler for $1K? Seems kind of silly, but hey, that's only an incremental 0.7%, and it might help keep me on the road for Ludicrous mode launches. Etc.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Kevin M wrote: Personally, I can't imagine not paying the extra $2K for the added EAP functionality, since the incremental percentage cost is minor.
I agree. Also, having the additional cameras in use will probably improve existing features. I'm thinking of AP on the streets vs. highway. I think this is what they are calling Autosteer+.

The Self driving is a tougher call. If it was ready day one, and allowed to be used by regulators, then it would be a no brainer. But, I think Elon mentioned 2018 for self driving. And that is Elon time. Then add a few years for the regulators to be convinced. I still have an open mind, but I'm thinking it is a bit too much vaporware at this point. While I usually hold on to cars longer then average, this car may be an exception, due to rapid technology updates. It is possible that I would be onto my next car before self driving is fully in place. If I'm wrong I can still get it, just with a $1,000 penalty.
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

Leif wrote: The Self driving is a tougher call. If it was ready day one, and allowed to be used by regulators, then it would be a no brainer. But, I think Elon mentioned 2018 for self driving. And that is Elon time. Then add a few years for the regulators to be convinced. I still have an open mind, but I'm thinking it is a bit too much vaporware at this point. While I usually hold on to cars longer then average, this car may be an exception, due to rapid technology updates. It is possible that I would be onto my next car before self driving is fully in place. If I'm wrong I can still get it, just with a $1,000 penalty.
I tend to agree with you on this. I've had my MS70D for a little less than a year, and am already looking to upgrade to P100D. For same reason, I'm thinking more about leasing now, but need to learn more about how it works.

Still, having eight cameras instead of four is likely to be a benefit even without full self-driving. Just like I suspect EAP will start pulling ahead of AP in the not-too-distant future, I suspect that the additional functionality of the self-driving option will be a benefit long before full self-driving is implemented and legal. And again, the incremental cost is only about 2% on a P100D and perhaps about 3% on say an MS75D.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95699
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by LadyGeek »

Sorry, but I can't get this comic out of my head: xkcd: Driving

Image

Attribution: xkcd (creative commons license), image is inline linked to site.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Kevin M wrote: I tend to agree with you on this. I've had my MS70D for a little less than a year, and am already looking to upgrade to P100D. For same reason, I'm thinking more about leasing now, but need to learn more about how it works.

Still, having eight cameras instead of four is likely to be a benefit even without full self-driving. Just like I suspect EAP will start pulling ahead of AP in the not-too-distant future, I suspect that the additional functionality of the self-driving option will be a benefit long before full self-driving is implemented and legal. And again, the incremental cost is only about 2% on a P100D and perhaps about 3% on say an MS75D.

Kevin
I think AP will improve in any case. I don't know, but I suspect that AP steers like a drunk on winding roads is due to processor overload. With a 40X additional processor I think the basic AP will improve.

If it comes out that going with that self drive option with 8 cameras involved improves EAP, and may even give you self drive as long as someone is in the driver's seat, I would consider that. If this was the plan for the short term < 1 year, I would probably opt for self drive. I think the full self drive, no occupant in the car has a ways to go. Technology, regulation, liability, insurance seem to be big obstacles. So I guess I'm saying I agree. A higher % for me, 90D, but still within reason.

My current car is under a lease. Normally makes sense for business use. However, I decided not to lease. The reason is the tax credit. That will probably not be an "issue" in a year or two when Tesla sells enough cars to "outgrow" the credit.
User avatar
Kevin M
Posts: 15789
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2009 3:24 pm
Contact:

Re: Tesla S

Post by Kevin M »

Leif wrote: I think AP will improve in any case. I don't know, but I suspect that AP steers like a drunk on winding roads is due to processor overload. With a 40X additional processor I think the basic AP will improve.
Totally agree, which is why I think your basic AP on Hardware 2 (HW2), even if you were to decline to upgrade to EAP, would likely be better than my AP on HW1 by sometime next year.
Leif wrote:If it comes out that going with that self drive option with 8 cameras involved improves EAP, and may even give you self drive as long as someone is in the driver's seat, I would consider that. If this was the plan for the short term < 1 year, I would probably opt for self drive.
I would bet that EAP will be better than AP on HW2 within a year, but I highly doubt that you'll be able to get much if any certainty about that before having to make the decision, even if you can delay until sometime in November. This is why I'm holding off on upgrading to P100D.

When do you have to decide to avoid the $1K upgrade fee?
Leif wrote:I think the full self drive, no occupant in the car has a ways to go. Technology, regulation, liability, insurance seem to be big obstacles.
Totally agree. Fingers crossed for being surprised, but the obstacles do seem quite significant.
Leif wrote:My current car is under a lease. Normally makes sense for business use. However, I decided not to lease. The reason is the tax credit. That will probably not be an "issue" in a year or two when Tesla sells enough cars to "outgrow" the credit.
What's the deal on terminating a lease early? I think I'd like to optimize cost for the possibility of upgrading every 1-2 years. Based just on my experience so far, I'm thinking that I'll be yearning for whatever the next big technology offering is in a year or two. HUD?

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Kevin M wrote: When do you have to decide to avoid the $1K upgrade fee?
Before delivery. In my case the delivery window is late November - December.

But the $1k after delivery "penalty" could change at any time. I guess an example is those with AP 1 hardware to upgrade to AP. At first it was $2,500 to upgrade. Later they changed it to $3,000. However, I did read they offered owner's a limited term test of AP to entice them to upgrade. They "might" so the same for EAP and self-driving for those with AP 2.0.
cannondale
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:45 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by cannondale »

It's really not a $1K penalty to activate EAP after delivery because you don't get charged sales tax on the activation. The activation, I as recall, is considered a Service.

If you bought at the factory, you'd have to pay sales taxes. And depending where you live, the difference could be $400-600.

This amount is too small to take a risk of prepaying for vaporware.
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

cannondale wrote:It's really not a $1K penalty to activate EAP after delivery because you don't get charged sales tax on the activation. The activation, I as recall, is considered a Service.

If you bought at the factory, you'd have to pay sales taxes. And depending where you live, the difference could be $400-600.

This amount is too small to take a risk of prepaying for vaporware.
YMMV based on locale. Assuming "no sales tax" is correct in NC (but it could be incorrect as the service center advised me over the summer that they must charge tax on certain services that use to be tax-free, like wheel repair), you would save $90 in taxes on $3k, so a $910 penalty for post-activation still.
cannondale
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:45 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by cannondale »

It could be because you're in a lower taxed area. I live in California. Here's an example:
I'm looking at Model X:

EAP ordered at factory: $5,000
EAP activated after delivery: $6,000.

Ordered at factory, price after taxes : $5000* 1.0925 = $5462.5
EAP activated after delivery (considered a service): $6,000
Difference = $6,000- $5462.5 = $537.5
User avatar
matjen
Posts: 2189
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:30 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by matjen »

Car & Driver has finished its 40K mile long term wrap up. My summary would be that while recognizing the importance of the car they also point out many build and service flaws. One thing that stood out was their complaint that the touchscreen started to really slow down. That would be unbearable to me. They think it is a great (though certainly expensive) commuter car and short trip car.

http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/201 ... cialflowTW

In the big picture, our Model S proved dependable, with none of the showstopping battery or motor failures that troubled some early cars. Several build-quality issues did remind us, however, that Tesla is the youngest automaker by a large margin. Adding to the irritation, the service center was often slow to schedule minor warranty work. Note the three-month lag between ordering and installing the third driver’s seat in our Service Timeline. That driver’s seat (along with the first replacement) developed enough play in the frame to noisily rub against the center console. Halfway through the test, the sunroof began to leak during rainstorms and required two service visits to correct. The chrome trim on the rear hatch had to be replaced after the original allowed moisture into the taillamps. The 5010-pound P85D also consumed a control arm and an anti-roll-bar end link, and it wore through its Michelin Pilot Sport PS2s in 15,000 miles.
and
While the in-car technology feels so very of-the-moment, less sophisticated cars better withstand the test of time. Our Model S’s 3G modem was outmoded the day it arrived at our office, and the navigation system frequently displayed blank gray tiles while Google Maps loaded. Simpler tasks such as changing radio stations left the impression that the 17-inch touchscreen was aging ungracefully, slowing down the way an old smartphone does. That complaint first appeared in the logbook with just 11,861 miles on the clock, while another driver counted a 10-second lag between tapping the screen and hearing a new station.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

While their 10 second lag is really annoying, it wasn't the touchscreen lagging. Tesla's version 7 firmware and earlier did NOT prefetch the next song or station in advance like Slacker's iPhone app does. So when you click skip or change stations, you hit a gap of silence where the current music stopped while the request went out, the new song downloaded, and a buffer was built up.

In version 8 of the firmware, they tweaked this with two changes that made a huge difference. 1st, the next song prefetches, so skipping just once is nearly instantaneous (even on my car's 3G connection). 2nd, when switching stations, they let the current station keep playing until the new one downloaded and buffered the first song, then it switched. They could improve it more, but I feel Tesla is waiting on their Slacker exclusivity contract to run out so they can switch the North American cars to Spotify like the European cars.

As for service delays, that varies greatly. In my area, I get seen same day or next day almost always. The few times they haven't been available that fast is if it was they didn't have a Tesla loaner available and I could either wait another day or two until one was or I could get a loaner from Enterprise Rent-A-Car (Tesla-paid). Those few times I just waited the extra or two and they brought the loaner to my house and took my car away.

FYI, last week my 3G modem stopped working and they saw my car 48 hours later. The car now has LTE. Both before and after I was on the same version of Firmware 8 and any changes are barely perceptible. The overall view of "sluggishness" basically went away with Firmware 8, so I think they did lots of optimizing or UI changes to overcome the perception of sluggishness (like the above mention station switching logic).
jdb
Posts: 1759
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:21 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by jdb »

This is one old thread, brings back lots of memories. I was at one time in 2012 almost a Lone Ranger on this site with the vehicle. Best thing about Tesla Model S in my opinion, now with over 50K miles and over 10K miles in Model X, is their constant improvements of the vehicle by software updates. Just got another one this week, usually every month or so. The computer screen and its functions is world class, no other vehicle on road comes close to the usefulness of the large computer monitors. And my service experience over past 6 years has been great, far better than any ICE dealer in past years. Also far less mechanical issues than with any ICE cars we have owned other than Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic but problem there was having to drive the cars. Looking forward to the Model 3. By the way, need to take Car and Driver and other main line auto publications with grain of salt, they are basically shills for legacy auto makers since get most of their revenue from auto advertising. Guess how much Tesla spends on advertising?
researcher
Posts: 1294
Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2015 7:05 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by researcher »

jdb wrote:The computer screen and its functions is world class...
And my service experience over past 6 years has been great, far better than any ICE dealer in past years...
Also far less mechanical issues than with any ICE cars we have owned...

By the way, need to take Car and Driver with grain of salt, they are basically shills for legacy auto makers...
The depths that Tesla owners will go to defend the company at all costs amazes me.
An honest long-term review must be taken with a 'grain of salt' because they are 'shills' for ICE manufacturers?

Of course, the info from a single anonymous internet poster is more trustworthy than a 60 year old car magazine employing a staff of car experts!
Take Car and Driver's review with a grain of salt, but not one from some random Tesla fanboy? Great advice!

If you read Car and Driver on a regular basis, you would know they routinely give negative reviews to ALL car manufacturers, including the legacy auto makers. How do you explain that, if they are simply shills for these companies?
investor997
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:23 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by investor997 »

A local Acura dealer is selling a 2014 Model S P85 w/ 17,162 miles on the odometer. Asking price is $59,496.

Someone correct me if my math is wrong:
MSRP = $99,770
CA Sales Tax 7.75% = $7,732
CA + Fed EV tax credits = ($10,000)
Net Purchase Price: $97,502

($97,502-$59,496) / 17,162 = $2.21/mile depreciation. Yikes!

EDIT: Actually, it's worse than that. The Acura dealer obviously gave the previous owner less than $59K when they traded it in. They're in the business to make money, of course.
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

matjen wrote: http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/201 ... cialflowTW

In the big picture, our Model S proved dependable, with none of the showstopping battery or motor failures that troubled some early cars. Several build-quality issues did remind us, however, that Tesla is the youngest automaker by a large margin. Adding to the irritation, the service center was often slow to schedule minor warranty work. Note the three-month lag between ordering and installing the third driver’s seat in our Service Timeline. That driver’s seat (along with the first replacement) developed enough play in the frame to noisily rub against the center console. Halfway through the test, the sunroof began to leak during rainstorms and required two service visits to correct. The chrome trim on the rear hatch had to be replaced after the original allowed moisture into the taillamps. The 5010-pound P85D also consumed a control arm and an anti-roll-bar end link, and it wore through its Michelin Pilot Sport PS2s in 15,000 miles.
My experience since my purchase in Dec. 2016 has been very good. Yes, in certain areas (my area included) the service centers are swamped. They need to address this pronto since the Model 3 is coming soon. But service is good. I stopped by one day (no appointment or advanced notice) and complained of a noise. They found a broken bracket. They literally took at 5 minutes, including a short test drive to diagnose and fix. I was certainly impressed.
matjen wrote: and
While the in-car technology feels so very of-the-moment, less sophisticated cars better withstand the test of time. Our Model S’s 3G modem was outmoded the day it arrived at our office, and the navigation system frequently displayed blank gray tiles while Google Maps loaded. Simpler tasks such as changing radio stations left the impression that the 17-inch touchscreen was aging ungracefully, slowing down the way an old smartphone does. That complaint first appeared in the logbook with just 11,861 miles on the clock, while another driver counted a 10-second lag between tapping the screen and hearing a new station.
Have not experienced any problems with my LTE service or the center console except for the unbelievable slow internet browser. I would like to use it when supercharging, but the experience is just too painful. Otherwise, things feel responsive to me.
Last edited by Leif on Fri Apr 07, 2017 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

investor997 wrote:...2014...$59,496.

($97,502-$59,496) / 17,162 = $2.21/mile depreciation. Yikes!
Where is the depreciation for age in your calculation? BTW, IMHO, almost $60k for that car is overpriced.
Woodlake
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:25 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Woodlake »

tax credit start to phase out after the 200,000 tesla delivery

i wonder how much will that impact tesla sales......

basically government is subsidizing $7500 dollar for every tesla on the road
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

Leif wrote: Have not experienced any problems with my LTE service or the center console except for the unbelievable slow internet browser. I would like to use it when supercharging, but the experience is just too painful. Otherwise, things feel responsive to me.

Perhaps Car & Driver need to do a reboot for the speed issue? This car is really half computer. Just like a cell phone or a computer, if you never turn off/reboot it will slow. I've never rebooted my car, but I know how to do it if necessary. This happens when an OTA update is made. I wonder if they are accepting the updates?
In Firmware 6.2 (which C&D's car likely had at one point), the touchscreen lag was noticeable. I would click Controls and think I mishit and hit it again, only to see the screen flash. That went away with 7.0 for me. Additionally, running the Nav significantly reduced responsiveness in 6.2 and 7.0. Many suspected there was memory leakage and rebooting often was necessary. It still happened after 7.1 (I haven't spent enough time with 8.0 and 8.1 to know yet), but not nearly as often. Thus, C&D's experience is spot on for that timeframe. Given that there is likely a lag from when most of this experienced was gleamed to when it was published on paper, they may not have had much exposure to 8.0 before writing the article. Which is sad, b/c they definitely had valid points that affected 2014, 2015 and early 2016.
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

Woodlake wrote:tax credit start to phase out after the 200,000 tesla delivery

i wonder how much will that impact tesla sales......

basically government is subsidizing $7500 dollar for every tesla on the road
With your wording that is technically true, though expanding a bit may help others who may read your post. The credit does not start to phase out with the delivery of 200,001st U.S. delivery. Instead, say 200,000 is reached on 10/1. You then move to the end of the current quarter, 12/31. Then you go one more quarter ahead to 3/31. NOW you stop paying out the tax credit at 100%, but still pay out at 50% for six months, then some time at 25% too. So many Teslas will continue to get the credit if Tesla produces them in large quantities.
Image
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by randomguy »

investor997 wrote:A local Acura dealer is selling a 2014 Model S P85 w/ 17,162 miles on the odometer. Asking price is $59,496.

Someone correct me if my math is wrong:
MSRP = $99,770
CA Sales Tax 7.75% = $7,732
CA + Fed EV tax credits = ($10,000)
Net Purchase Price: $97,502

($97,502-$59,496) / 17,162 = $2.21/mile depreciation. Yikes!

EDIT: Actually, it's worse than that. The Acura dealer obviously gave the previous owner less than $59K when they traded it in. They're in the business to make money, of course.
That is true for any luxury car. Seriously do this math with a CLS/S7/m6 grand coupe or any of the simliar 90-100k gas powered cars that the model S competes with. They will all lose ~40k over 2-3 years.

If you care about $/mile, expensive cars will never be a good deal
investor997
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 2:23 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by investor997 »

randomguy wrote: That is true for any luxury car. Seriously do this math with a CLS/S7/m6 grand coupe or any of the simliar 90-100k gas powered cars that the model S competes with. They will all lose ~40k over 2-3 years.

If you care about $/mile, expensive cars will never be a good deal
I agree. Any of those megacars will have massive depreciation.

A data point:

Around the same time this 2014 P85 was new, a friend of mine leased a BMW 550i M-sport. The BMW may not be able to pull off a sub-4 second 0-60 time but it was still seriously quick (400hp twin turbo V8) with a beautiful interior and all the bells/whistles. He leased it for 36 months/36K mi for $750/mo, tax included with $0 cap cost reduction up front (MSRP was about $75K but nobody pays that). If we calculate depreciation as a function of time rather than mileage:

$750 * 36 = $27,000
Assuming he drove all 36K miles, gas cost $3/gal and the car got 18 mpg:
36000/18 * 3 = $6,000 in fuel

$27,000 + $6,000 = $33,000, not including DMV, insurance (which is more on the Tesla) and tires (which we'll assume is a wash).

Even if electricity was completely free for the Tesla owner, the BMW still cost a lot less to own for three years than the Tesla. If the Tesla was driven 36K miles to match the BMW lease, its resale value would almost certainly be worse than the car in this particular example.
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by randomguy »

investor997 wrote:
randomguy wrote: That is true for any luxury car. Seriously do this math with a CLS/S7/m6 grand coupe or any of the simliar 90-100k gas powered cars that the model S competes with. They will all lose ~40k over 2-3 years.

If you care about $/mile, expensive cars will never be a good deal
I agree. Any of those megacars will have massive depreciation.

A data point:

Around the same time this 2014 P85 was new, a friend of mine leased a BMW 550i M-sport. The BMW may not be able to pull off a sub-4 second 0-60 time but it was still seriously quick (400hp twin turbo V8) with a beautiful interior and all the bells/whistles. He leased it for 36 months/36K mi for $750/mo, tax included with $0 cap cost reduction up front (MSRP was about $75K but nobody pays that). If we calculate depreciation as a function of time rather than mileage:

$750 * 36 = $27,000
Assuming he drove all 36K miles, gas cost $3/gal and the car got 18 mpg:
36000/18 * 3 = $6,000 in fuel

$27,000 + $6,000 = $33,000, not including DMV, insurance (which is more on the Tesla) and tires (which we'll assume is a wash).

Even if electricity was completely free for the Tesla owner, the BMW still cost a lot less to own for three years than the Tesla. If the Tesla was driven 36K miles to match the BMW lease, its resale value would almost certainly be worse than the car in this particular example.
It is cheaper because your friend bought a 75k car not a 95k one. Buy a 75k model S with 2500 down + 909/monthx36 months = 35k. For arm chair math that is within the same ballpark. You can debate equpiment levels, performance,the free BMW service value, and the rest about how equal the cars are but at a real high level the depreciation between these high end cars is pretty darn close.
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

randomguy wrote:iinsurance (which is more on the Tesla)
YMMV on that. My insurance cost went down going from a 2006 Toyota 4Runner Sport 4WD to a 2013 Tesla Model S 85 RWD.
Image
User avatar
Leif
Posts: 3705
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:15 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by Leif »

Brandon,

That is a great price. I would even say YMMVAL (Your Mileage May Vary A LOT). I would guess you have a very good driving record. That is at least half the battle.

I have a 2016 90D. Myself, wife, and daughter have good records, but some of us were involved in accidents (not at fault). My insurance is about twice yours. $700/6 months. High liability like yours. Most of the quotes I got were $1,000+.

Main problem with the Tesla is the aluminum body. Repairs are expensive.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by HomerJ »

Tesla is now worth more than Ford.

Even though Tesla sold like 76,000 cars last year, and Ford sold 2.6 million.

You can love the car, but I would be really scared of the stock. There's an insane amount of growth already priced into the stock.
User avatar
knpstr
Posts: 2894
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:57 pm
Location: Michigan

Re: Tesla S

Post by knpstr »

HomerJ wrote:Tesla is now worth more than Ford.

Even though Tesla sold like 76,000 cars last year, and Ford sold 2.6 million.

You can love the car, but I would be really scared of the stock. There's an insane amount of growth already priced into the stock.
I agree that there is an insane amount of growth built in, but also remember Tesla isn't simply a car company. It is a battery manufacturer, solar panel manufacturer, battery home/utility storage manufacturer, car manufacturer.

There valuation isn't solely on their car business. Their new factory will double the output of batteries in the world... yes that factory's capacity equals the entire worlds capacity before it was built.

So tesla themselves are banking on some insane growth as well.

:beer
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius
Valuethinker
Posts: 49038
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Tesla S

Post by Valuethinker »

HomerJ wrote:Tesla is now worth more than Ford.

Even though Tesla sold like 76,000 cars last year, and Ford sold 2.6 million.

You can love the car, but I would be really scared of the stock. There's an insane amount of growth already priced into the stock.
This I think is the key. It's not the company, it is the valuation.

And of course the execution risks of the business model. Mind, Amazon, just as crazy-ambitious at this stage in its life cycle, has (so far), pulled it off. But Amazon discovered Amazon Web Services, and that's been a money spinner.

Musk might pull it off, because he's done it before. I think the execution risks are not in the share price, and that they are substantial. BUT Musk has proven me wrong so far. Disruptive companies and their typically mercurial and dynamic leaders can do that.

I might buy the car, I'd never buy the stock (outside a diversified index fund). But, I've been wrong before (Amazon).
oragne lovre
Posts: 536
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 2:34 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by oragne lovre »

Valuethinker wrote:
HomerJ wrote:Tesla is now worth more than Ford.

Even though Tesla sold like 76,000 cars last year, and Ford sold 2.6 million.

You can love the car, but I would be really scared of the stock. There's an insane amount of growth already priced into the stock.
This I think is the key. It's not the company, it is the valuation.

And of course the execution risks of the business model. Mind, Amazon, just as crazy-ambitious at this stage in its life cycle, has (so far), pulled it off. But Amazon discovered Amazon Web Services, and that's been a money spinner.

Musk might pull it off, because he's done it before. I think the execution risks are not in the share price, and that they are substantial. BUT Musk has proven me wrong so far. Disruptive companies and their typically mercurial and dynamic leaders can do that.

I might buy the car, I'd never buy the stock (outside a diversified index fund). But, I've been wrong before (Amazon).
Don't take it too hard on yourself since Musk has so far proven many "gurus" wrong along his journey from PayPal to Space X, to Tesla Motors, to Solar City, and to Tesla Inc.

I hope future Tesla drivers would appreciate early Tesla adopters, who are willing to embrace Tesla and thus taking presumed depreciation, so that they can help push forward a disruptive company. In that sense, my colleague who drives an early Tesla S 60 is no longer a dummy; he's a hero.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.
travellight
Posts: 2892
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:52 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: Tesla S

Post by travellight »

I just ordered a new model S. I had a hard time picking a color and decided to go with pearl white with the white seats. I live in scal and prefer a car that won't retain heat. I had ordered a used tesla s but with the price reduction recently, it ended up being the same price to get the new one with a battery downgrade from p85 to the 75. I am also in line for the model 3 and may be getting 2 federal tax credits in the same year if that works out to be the case.
364
User avatar
BrandonBogle
Posts: 4467
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:19 pm

Re: Tesla S

Post by BrandonBogle »

travellight wrote:I just ordered a new model S. I had a hard time picking a color and decided to go with pearl white with the white seats. I live in scal and prefer a car that won't retain heat. I had ordered a used tesla s but with the price reduction recently, it ended up being the same price to get the new one with a battery downgrade from p85 to the 75. I am also in line for the model 3 and may be getting 2 federal tax credits in the same year if that works out to be the case.
I would also prefer a 2017 over a 2012-2014 P85, so good choice. Just keep in mind that the fed tax credit is not a refundable credit, so you would need sufficient tax liability to use two of them in the same year. I don't know if the credit is amt-eligible (though shouldn't be hard to check). I know with the car credit and the changing credit, many people couldn't claim them both in the same year. So some got the car and limped by on limited charging until the next year to get their home charging set up. All of this varies by each person's tax circumstances, so just something to check before getting a second EV in the same year.
Post Reply