neat GDP chart of any country

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LH
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neat GDP chart of any country

Post by LH » Fri Jan 01, 2010 1:40 pm

Kinda a cool chart I just happened across, check any countries box, and it will put up their GDP in nomimal dollars over many years.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... ountry:USA

USA is checked in the link, but one can check any combination of multiple countries. Its kinda interesting to quickly look at see what different countries actually produce.

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Post by SP-diceman » Fri Jan 01, 2010 1:53 pm

Neat.


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SP-diceman

rokid
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Post by rokid » Fri Jan 01, 2010 5:01 pm

Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim

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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon » Fri Jan 01, 2010 5:20 pm

rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
Give them 50 years.

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Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jan 01, 2010 6:15 pm

simplesimon wrote:
rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
Give them 50 years.
Their growth will slow. There are all sorts of things (like lots of water and land) that the US has in abundance, that China just doesn't have.

One's best guess is that China will get to the middle income per capita range (say around $15-20k per capita from somewhere around $4k now?-- depending on whether we use purchasing power parity adjustments) which is where South Korea got to before it started to slow dramatically. In addition, they have some quite profound demographic challenges in 20-30 years.

This will make China the world's largest GDP.

China and India were c. 35% of world GDP in 1700, and they are almost certain to regain that position this century-- barring war or environmental disaster.

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Re: neat GDP chart of any country

Post by grok87 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:14 pm

LH wrote:Kinda a cool chart I just happened across, check any countries box, and it will put up their GDP in nomimal dollars over many years.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... ountry:USA

USA is checked in the link, but one can check any combination of multiple countries. Its kinda interesting to quickly look at see what different countries actually produce.
Eh...I'm not that impressed. What do I care what the GDP of say Germany is in US Dollars. Should show it in Euros. Showing it in dollars makes it look more variable than it really is due to currency fluctuations.

THis population growth chart is pretty cool though
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... HN:IRL:GBR

cheers,
Keep calm and Boglehead on. KCBO.

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seugene
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Post by seugene » Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:30 pm

simplesimon wrote:
rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
Give them 50 years.
We gave Japan 20... Few people thought in 1989 this is how it would turn out.

On the other hand, Great Britain was given more than a century, and Portugal even more.

Empires rise and fall - and it does not necessarily mean the end of the world for their citizens. I know - I am a happy camper from Soviet Union.

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Post by SP-diceman » Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:49 pm

rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
or how much they failed.

They do have a brilliant solution however.
Do what we do.

(who knew)


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Post by fishndoc » Fri Jan 01, 2010 8:53 pm

SP-diceman wrote:
rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
or how much they failed.

They do have a brilliant solution however.
Do what we do.
Not to be political, but "do what we once did" may be more appropriate.
" Successful investing involves doing just a few things right, and avoiding serious mistakes." - J. Bogle

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teacher
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Post by teacher » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:08 pm

I found this formula in the wikipedia. The GPD is is not what I thought it was.

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

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Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 01, 2010 9:28 pm

Click on the Google chart's More info » and you get redirected to the world bank. You can map GDP for any country in any year (but 2009). There's also a definition of GDP:
GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.
I would assume that the world bank's definition of GDP is an authoritative reference (?).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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China fund?

Post by Mademoisellebogleheads » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:15 pm

It really gives some perspective just how gigantic the US economy is...

But I do like the shape of that hockey puck that China is pulling!

Does any have a favorite China heavy fund?
What about Vanguard's emerging market fund?

Despite of what we hear in the news, our world class accounting reliability and legal infrastructures in the US--are among some of the finest things in life!

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Post by simplesimon » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:35 pm

teacher wrote:I found this formula in the wikipedia. The GPD is is not what I thought it was.

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
Exactly, and that's why Japan is losing a lot of ground to China. Japan imports A LOT of stuff.

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simplesimon
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Post by simplesimon » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:36 pm

seugene wrote:
simplesimon wrote:
rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
Give them 50 years.
We gave Japan 20... Few people thought in 1989 this is how it would turn out.

On the other hand, Great Britain was given more than a century, and Portugal even more.

Empires rise and fall - and it does not necessarily mean the end of the world for their citizens. I know - I am a happy camper from Soviet Union.
So you're saying China's peaked?

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seugene
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Post by seugene » Sat Jan 02, 2010 12:36 am

I am saying nobody can know these things in advance.

"I do not know and I do not care".

Or "It is not only unknown, it is unknowable" (c) Donald Rumsfeld.

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Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:26 am

simplesimon wrote:
teacher wrote:I found this formula in the wikipedia. The GPD is is not what I thought it was.

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
Exactly, and that's why Japan is losing a lot of ground to China. Japan imports A LOT of stuff.
Actually you have got the wrong end of the stick:

- Japan has always imported stuff-- the country has no natural resources to speak of

- Japan is an unusually large exporter of manufactured goods for such a developed economy

The problem in Japan has been the deficiency of domestic consumption, associated with an aging population and the aftershock of the bubble economy of the 80s.

If the Japanese economy looked more like other western economies it would be in better shape.

Everyone has lost market share in manufacturing to China (except Germany) and that will continue. Before China it was Korea and Taiwan.

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Post by Valuethinker » Sat Jan 02, 2010 4:31 am

fishndoc wrote:
SP-diceman wrote:
rokid wrote:Nice chart. It shows how rich we are in the U.S. We have three times the GDP of China with a quarter of the population.----Jim
or how much they failed.

They do have a brilliant solution however.
Do what we do.
Not to be political, but "do what we once did" may be more appropriate.
US economic growth has been pretty good for decades amongst developed countries. Financial bubble has obviously caused some things to be called into question.

When you are the most advanced economy, and the largest, and essentially the richest per capita, it's very hard to keep growing at a pace.

For China to grow it simply has to do what the US already did: build infrastructure, adopt the most modern means of production, construct a large urban middle class, efficient capital markets, increase the level of higher education etc. etc.

This is what Japan and South Korea did for decades and it's called the 'Solow Model' ie take your existing capital stock (human and physical) and add to it.

The hard part is getting the institutions for growth right in the first place: corruption which is not inimical to economic growth, private property etc. Avoiding civil wars or rapacious elites which pillage the country (just about any resource rich country in the world you could name has that problem).

However it flattens out. Eventually to adopt new technology, you have to invent it. When half the population goes to college, it's a lot harder to make gains by sending more people to college. To become more efficient, you have to scrap large amounts of existing capital and ways of doing things (US cities with big traffic problems are reaching that point, perhaps). You have to dream up new ways of organization and new solutions. This is hard.

The result is most countries, once GDP gets over $10k per head, start to slow down in growth, and virtually all countries, once GDP gets over $15k-20k per head. Piling on the capital (in China's case, 45% of GDP on fixed assets, vs. c. 17% in the US) just doesn't create more GDP (that's called diminishing returns to investment).

Where the US has been very good has been in the adoption of new technology. There was one McKinsey report which suggested 40% of the growth in productivity during the late 90s surge was the adoption of the WalMart distribution system by retailers.

That is very hard to duplicate in Europe, where land just isn't that available-- but there are other restrictions, national, labour etc. which make us slow to duplicate you.

US is (was) arguably behind Europe on wireless technology but then you invented the IPod so at the consumer level, leapfrogging again. So there's an example.

US lags in broadband speed and penetration, but conversely the big internet companies are all American-- Facebook, Google, Amazon, eBay etc.

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Post by SP-diceman » Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:04 pm

The problem with a lot of these metrics is they make no adjustment
for size or starting levels.

Would you rather have a large sum of money that grows at 6% or
10% of that value that grows at 8%?
If we talk just growth the 8% guy wins.

China is supposed to be the "best" growth place on earth.
However, there's about a billion people there that live at the standards
of sub-Saharan Africa.

A reporter a few months ago wrote a story:
"Its China's World We Just Live In It."
Really? I'm surprised we all haven't moved there.


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Post by jegallup » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:26 pm

This page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... per_capita

lists countries by GDP per capita from three different sources, and is kind of interesting too, if you're assuming some relationship between national GDP and individual wealth. There are some surprises in the listings.

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LH
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Re: neat GDP chart of any country

Post by LH » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:02 pm

grok87 wrote:
LH wrote:Kinda a cool chart I just happened across, check any countries box, and it will put up their GDP in nomimal dollars over many years.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... ountry:USA

USA is checked in the link, but one can check any combination of multiple countries. Its kinda interesting to quickly look at see what different countries actually produce.
Eh...I'm not that impressed. What do I care what the GDP of say Germany is in US Dollars. Should show it in Euros. Showing it in dollars makes it look more variable than it really is due to currency fluctuations.

THis population growth chart is pretty cool though
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... HN:IRL:GBR

cheers,
I do not understand your point. Would you should zimbawe production in their currency, europes in euros, japanese in yen, and that would be more meaningful comparison and less variable than all expressed in dollars? I am not sure that follows, seems like it would have less meaning, and in cases like zimbabwe, be more variable especially? To compare countries easily, there has to be some metric to put them all in.

Variable relative to what? Not the de facto (still) reserve currency(US dollar), but to something else the dollar is "more variable"? What is the something else? And how much more "variable" is the dollar than the something else?

Are you saying put it all in euros, and that would confer some advantage? I do not understand why, and from US point of view (majority of bogleheads I posit are US, correct me if wrong), its more readily meaningful in dollars I would posit.

I guess I am missing something? Certainly possible : )

cheers,

LH

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LH
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Re: neat GDP chart of any country

Post by LH » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:02 pm

grok87 wrote:
LH wrote:Kinda a cool chart I just happened across, check any countries box, and it will put up their GDP in nomimal dollars over many years.

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... ountry:USA

USA is checked in the link, but one can check any combination of multiple countries. Its kinda interesting to quickly look at see what different countries actually produce.
Eh...I'm not that impressed. What do I care what the GDP of say Germany is in US Dollars. Should show it in Euros. Showing it in dollars makes it look more variable than it really is due to currency fluctuations.

THis population growth chart is pretty cool though
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- ... HN:IRL:GBR

cheers,
I do not understand your point. Would you should zimbawe production in their currency, europes in euros, japanese in yen, and that would be more meaningful comparison and less variable than all expressed in dollars? I am not sure that follows, seems like it would have less meaning, and in cases like zimbabwe, be more variable especially? To compare countries easily, there has to be some metric to put them all in.

Variable relative to what? Not the de facto (still) reserve currency(US dollar), but to something else the dollar is "more variable"? What is the something else? And how much more "variable" is the dollar than the something else?

Are you saying put it all in euros, and that would confer some advantage? I do not understand why, and from US point of view (majority of bogleheads I posit are US, correct me if wrong), its more readily meaningful in dollars I would posit.

I guess I am missing something? Certainly possible : )

cheers,

LH

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