2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
- Taylor Larimore
- Advisory Board
- Posts: 30312
- Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
- Location: Miami FL
2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION
Hi Bogleheads:
Contest programer, Ralph Arvesen and I are pleased to announce our tenth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best Wall Street gurus.
Last year we had 282 Bogleheads register. Their forcasts for the S&P 500 Index at year's end ranged from 444 to 1659. The Index on December 31, 2009 was 1115.
mmg (who was in the bottom half of the 2008 Contest) is this year's contest winner with a guess of 1117. CONGRATULATIONS MMG! Contact me and your choice of a Boglehead book and a book by John Bogle will be delivered to your home.
We also congratulate all the Bogleheads who finished in the left-hand column with their above-average guesses. It is notable that 17 Bogleheads beat the best of the 12 Wall Street experts.
Boglehead Contest
Now, we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead forecasters in 2010. But first, the Wall Street forecasts for 2010:
1275 David Blanco, Bank of America
1120 Barry Knapp, Barclays
1150 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1125 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suise
1260 Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank
1250 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1300 Thomas Lee, JPMorgan
1300 Brian Belski, Oppenheimer
1200 Myles Zyblock, RBC
1250 Thomas Doerflinger, UBS
Contest Rules:
* Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2010.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration closes midnight January 10, 2010.
* In event of ties the first guess wins.
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2011 (to confirm user name and mailing address).
* Post your S&P forecast with your Reply here.
Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Contest programer, Ralph Arvesen and I are pleased to announce our tenth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best Wall Street gurus.
Last year we had 282 Bogleheads register. Their forcasts for the S&P 500 Index at year's end ranged from 444 to 1659. The Index on December 31, 2009 was 1115.
mmg (who was in the bottom half of the 2008 Contest) is this year's contest winner with a guess of 1117. CONGRATULATIONS MMG! Contact me and your choice of a Boglehead book and a book by John Bogle will be delivered to your home.
We also congratulate all the Bogleheads who finished in the left-hand column with their above-average guesses. It is notable that 17 Bogleheads beat the best of the 12 Wall Street experts.
Boglehead Contest
Now, we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead forecasters in 2010. But first, the Wall Street forecasts for 2010:
1275 David Blanco, Bank of America
1120 Barry Knapp, Barclays
1150 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1125 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suise
1260 Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank
1250 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1300 Thomas Lee, JPMorgan
1300 Brian Belski, Oppenheimer
1200 Myles Zyblock, RBC
1250 Thomas Doerflinger, UBS
Contest Rules:
* Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2010.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration closes midnight January 10, 2010.
* In event of ties the first guess wins.
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2011 (to confirm user name and mailing address).
* Post your S&P forecast with your Reply here.
Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Here we go, again...
1282.37
- Ron
- Ron
- Tall Grass
- Posts: 1205
- Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:11 pm
- Location: Kansas
I'm lousy at this, but I'll try again. The best I've ever done in the past was #14 and #30. I think we've created a mini-bubble in the last few months, hence the anemic guess for this year.
My guess...1140
My guess...1140
Last edited by Tall Grass on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
- Opponent Process
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- speedbump101
- Posts: 999
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- Location: Alberta Canada
2010 Boglehead Contest
Happy New Year!
SP 500 for year ending Dec 31 2010 will be 1394
SP 500 for year ending Dec 31 2010 will be 1394
-
- Posts: 434
- Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:17 pm
Finished 10th
Hey, I finished 10th! Does that mean I now get the job forecasting for Goldman Sachs?
My 2010 guess: 1260
My 2010 guess: 1260
Nick22
Pessimistic Forecast
I'm not changing my allocation targets in case I'm wrong but it's hard to not be pessimistic that we're in another equity bubble. My forecast is 780.50 down 30% but I hope I'm wrong. Reasons: 10%+ unemployment, forecasts of as many as 13 million home foreclosures next year, lack of adequate banking reform, etc. Perhaps it's 1982 instead of 1932 - I certainly hope so.
Art
- Mel Lindauer
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- gotherelate
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- Founder
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S&P 500 finishes the year at 444.
Thanks for your efforts, Taylor!
John
Thanks for your efforts, Taylor!
John
Last edited by Quasimodo on Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Dan Moroboshi
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