2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
User avatar
Topic Author
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 30312
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Hi Bogleheads:

Contest programer, Ralph Arvesen and I are pleased to announce our tenth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best Wall Street gurus.

Last year we had 282 Bogleheads register. Their forcasts for the S&P 500 Index at year's end ranged from 444 to 1659. The Index on December 31, 2009 was 1115.

mmg (who was in the bottom half of the 2008 Contest) is this year's contest winner with a guess of 1117. CONGRATULATIONS MMG! Contact me and your choice of a Boglehead book and a book by John Bogle will be delivered to your home.

We also congratulate all the Bogleheads who finished in the left-hand column with their above-average guesses. It is notable that 17 Bogleheads beat the best of the 12 Wall Street experts.

Boglehead Contest

Now, we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead forecasters in 2010. But first, the Wall Street forecasts for 2010:

1275 David Blanco, Bank of America
1120 Barry Knapp, Barclays
1150 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1125 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suise
1260 Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank
1250 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1300 Thomas Lee, JPMorgan
1300 Brian Belski, Oppenheimer
1200 Myles Zyblock, RBC
1250 Thomas Doerflinger, UBS

Contest Rules:

* Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2010.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration closes midnight January 10, 2010.
* In event of ties the first guess wins.
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2011 (to confirm user name and mailing address).
* Post your S&P forecast with your Reply here.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
User avatar
BigFoot48
Posts: 2862
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

1155.99

Post by BigFoot48 »

1155.99 About 3% up. Pessimistic this year. Thanks Taylor for all the fun!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 15-time loser
Ron
Posts: 6726
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:46 pm
Location: NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area

Here we go, again...

Post by Ron »

1282.37

- Ron
User avatar
aainvestor
Posts: 512
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:12 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Post by aainvestor »

1320
ramsfan
Posts: 440
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:27 am

Post by ramsfan »

1360.8.

Thanks for doing this!
Bharat
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:46 pm
Location: Somewhere between Appalachia and Atlantic

Post by Bharat »

1285. Roughly 15% up from 2009.
Everything that you own, owns piece of you.
User avatar
Tall Grass
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:11 pm
Location: Kansas

Post by Tall Grass »

I'm lousy at this, but I'll try again. The best I've ever done in the past was #14 and #30. I think we've created a mini-bubble in the last few months, hence the anemic guess for this year.

My guess...1140
Last edited by Tall Grass on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
User avatar
Opponent Process
Posts: 5157
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:19 pm

Post by Opponent Process »

1226.5
30/30/20/20 | US/International/Bonds/TIPS | Average Age=37
User avatar
G-Money
Posts: 2867
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:12 am

Post by G-Money »

1223
User avatar
DelrayDave
Posts: 47
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 2:33 pm

Ok, here we go

Post by DelrayDave »

My guess: 1204
User avatar
speedbump101
Posts: 999
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:54 pm
Location: Alberta Canada

Post by speedbump101 »

1221.10
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein
Antonio
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:47 pm

2010 Boglehead Contest

Post by Antonio »

Happy New Year!

SP 500 for year ending Dec 31 2010 will be 1394
User avatar
goosecat
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 11:57 pm

Post by goosecat »

1313.13
DPEMD
Posts: 50
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:15 pm

Post by DPEMD »

1205
Norris
Posts: 531
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 10:04 am

Post by Norris »

1211.00 (again)
User avatar
norookie
Posts: 3016
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:55 pm

Post by norookie »

These are always fun. :lol: um,...1122.
" Wealth usually leads to excess " Cicero 55 b.c
User avatar
theduke
Posts: 635
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 6:31 pm

Post by theduke »

1331
User avatar
bilperk
Posts: 548
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:00 am
Location: Florida

Post by bilperk »

1301
Bill
dandetour
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:21 am
Location: Texas

Post by dandetour »

1215

Dan
kenbrumy
Posts: 394
Joined: Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:13 pm

Post by kenbrumy »

1339
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 69975
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Post by LadyGeek »

1276.54

LG
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Rebecca_S
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 6:55 pm

Post by Rebecca_S »

1212

Rebecca
weltschmerz
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:17 pm

Post by weltschmerz »

deleted
Last edited by weltschmerz on Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
nick22
Posts: 859
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:00 am
Location: Ohio

Finished 10th

Post by nick22 »

Hey, I finished 10th! Does that mean I now get the job forecasting for Goldman Sachs?

My 2010 guess: 1260
Nick22
User avatar
Dan_NoVA
Posts: 14
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 6:56 pm

WAG

Post by Dan_NoVA »

1279

Thanks!

Dan
User avatar
Fletch
Posts: 757
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 1:25 pm
Location: USA

Post by Fletch »

985
“Meaningless! Meaningless!” says the Teacher. Whoever loves money never has enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income. This too is meaningless.
Pongo
Posts: 23
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 9:13 am

Post by Pongo »

1227

Pongo
User avatar
artthomp
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:44 pm
Location: Ballwin Missouri

Pessimistic Forecast

Post by artthomp »

I'm not changing my allocation targets in case I'm wrong but it's hard to not be pessimistic that we're in another equity bubble. My forecast is 780.50 down 30% but I hope I'm wrong. Reasons: 10%+ unemployment, forecasts of as many as 13 million home foreclosures next year, lack of adequate banking reform, etc. Perhaps it's 1982 instead of 1932 - I certainly hope so.
Art
Dave_M
Posts: 235
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:16 pm
Location: Colorado

Post by Dave_M »

1204.2
tonythered
Posts: 834
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:08 pm

Post by tonythered »

1271
splitatlantic
Posts: 41
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:35 am

Post by splitatlantic »

1304.66

Happy New Year to All!
tomd37
Posts: 3540
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:39 pm
Location: Middle Tennessee

$1167.25

Post by tomd37 »

$1167.25 "guestimate" by tomd37
Tom D.
nonroom
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:44 am
Location: Southeastern US

Post by nonroom »

1340.3
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.
User avatar
Igglesman
Posts: 439
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 2:20 pm

Post by Igglesman »

1269
norm
Posts: 594
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:10 pm

Post by norm »

1210
User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 31502
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:

Post by Mel Lindauer »

1085
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
User avatar
RJB
Posts: 321
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:39 pm
Location: /earth

Post by RJB »

1161.68

Thank you Taylor for settng this up.

Roy
cptsales
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:12 pm

Post by cptsales »

my gues 1329
User avatar
gotherelate
Posts: 845
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 6:57 pm
Location: Texas

Post by gotherelate »

1264.20

Maybe I was only a year off. :roll:

Grandpa
-Grandpa | I'd rather see where I'm going than see where I've been.
User avatar
SquawkIdent
Posts: 596
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 7:14 pm
Location: Planet Earth

Post by SquawkIdent »

1115.09
mews
Posts: 239
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 9:59 pm

Post by mews »

1229 -


ta,
mew
jdrmlr
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:45 pm

Post by jdrmlr »

1171.80
KyleAAA
Posts: 8759
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Post by KyleAAA »

1350, I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy
Alex Frakt
Founder
Posts: 11101
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:06 pm
Location: Chicago
Contact:

Post by Alex Frakt »

1340
User avatar
Quasimodo
Posts: 1357
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 1:58 pm

Post by Quasimodo »

S&P 500 finishes the year at 444.

Thanks for your efforts, Taylor!

John
Last edited by Quasimodo on Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Many wealthy people are little more than janitors of their possessions. | | Frank Lloyd Wright, architect (1867-1959)
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 23772
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Post by abuss368 »

1149
jml39
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:18 pm

Post by jml39 »

1219
mfen
Posts: 672
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:23 am

Post by mfen »

1278
Maryanne
Display
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:42 pm

2010 Contest

Post by Display »

1185.60
Charles
Charles
User avatar
Dan Moroboshi
Posts: 866
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:10 pm

Post by Dan Moroboshi »

1234

(Somebody had to do it, might as well be me)
Post Reply