2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
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Taylor Larimore
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2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:09 am

Hi Bogleheads:

Contest programer, Ralph Arvesen and I are pleased to announce our tenth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best Wall Street gurus.

Last year we had 282 Bogleheads register. Their forcasts for the S&P 500 Index at year's end ranged from 444 to 1659. The Index on December 31, 2009 was 1115.

mmg (who was in the bottom half of the 2008 Contest) is this year's contest winner with a guess of 1117. CONGRATULATIONS MMG! Contact me and your choice of a Boglehead book and a book by John Bogle will be delivered to your home.

We also congratulate all the Bogleheads who finished in the left-hand column with their above-average guesses. It is notable that 17 Bogleheads beat the best of the 12 Wall Street experts.

Boglehead Contest

Now, we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead forecasters in 2010. But first, the Wall Street forecasts for 2010:

1275 David Blanco, Bank of America
1120 Barry Knapp, Barclays
1150 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1125 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suise
1260 Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank
1250 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1300 Thomas Lee, JPMorgan
1300 Brian Belski, Oppenheimer
1200 Myles Zyblock, RBC
1250 Thomas Doerflinger, UBS

Contest Rules:

* Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2010.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration closes midnight January 10, 2010.
* In event of ties the first guess wins.
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2011 (to confirm user name and mailing address).
* Post your S&P forecast with your Reply here.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
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BigFoot48
Posts: 2578
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Location: Arizona

1155.99

Post by BigFoot48 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:13 am

1155.99 About 3% up. Pessimistic this year. Thanks Taylor for all the fun!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser
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Ron
Posts: 6354
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:46 pm

Here we go, again...

Post by Ron » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:17 am

1282.37

- Ron
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aainvestor
Posts: 512
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Location: Northern Virginia

Post by aainvestor » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:18 am

1320
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ramsfan
Posts: 434
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:27 am

Post by ramsfan » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:21 am

1360.8.

Thanks for doing this!
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Bharat
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Location: Somewhere between Appalachia and Atlantic

Post by Bharat » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:24 am

1285. Roughly 15% up from 2009.
Everything that you own, owns piece of you.
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Tall Grass
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Location: Kansas

Post by Tall Grass » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:25 am

I'm lousy at this, but I'll try again. The best I've ever done in the past was #14 and #30. I think we've created a mini-bubble in the last few months, hence the anemic guess for this year.

My guess...1140
Last edited by Tall Grass on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
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Opponent Process
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Post by Opponent Process » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:30 am

1226.5
30/30/20/20 | US/International/Bonds/TIPS | Average Age=37
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G-Money
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Post by G-Money » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am

1223
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DelrayDave
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Ok, here we go

Post by DelrayDave » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:36 am

My guess: 1204
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speedbump101
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Location: Alberta Canada

Post by speedbump101 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:43 am

1221.10
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein
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Antonio
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:47 pm

2010 Boglehead Contest

Post by Antonio » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:45 am

Happy New Year!

SP 500 for year ending Dec 31 2010 will be 1394
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goosecat
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Post by goosecat » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:49 am

1313.13
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DPEMD
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Post by DPEMD » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:54 am

1205
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Norris
Posts: 523
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Post by Norris » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:10 am

1211.00 (again)
Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. Confucius
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norookie
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Post by norookie » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:13 am

These are always fun. :lol: um,...1122.
" Wealth usually leads to excess " Cicero 55 b.c
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theduke
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Post by theduke » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:13 am

1331
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bilperk
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Location: Florida

Post by bilperk » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:19 am

1301
Bill
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dandetour
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Location: Texas

Post by dandetour » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:31 am

1215

Dan
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kenbrumy
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Post by kenbrumy » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:39 am

1339
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LadyGeek
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Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:42 am

1276.54

LG
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
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Rebecca_S
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Post by Rebecca_S » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:45 am

1212

Rebecca
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weltschmerz
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Location: Calistan

Post by weltschmerz » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:46 am

950
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nick22
Posts: 859
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Location: Ohio

Finished 10th

Post by nick22 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:47 am

Hey, I finished 10th! Does that mean I now get the job forecasting for Goldman Sachs?

My 2010 guess: 1260
Nick22
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Dan_NoVA
Posts: 13
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WAG

Post by Dan_NoVA » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:49 am

1279

Thanks!

Dan
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Fletch
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Location: USA

Post by Fletch » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:51 am

985
“Meaningless! Meaningless!” says the Teacher. Whoever loves money never has enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income. This too is meaningless.
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Pongo
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Post by Pongo » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:52 am

1227

Pongo
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artthomp
Posts: 327
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Location: Ballwin Missouri

Pessimistic Forecast

Post by artthomp » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:53 am

I'm not changing my allocation targets in case I'm wrong but it's hard to not be pessimistic that we're in another equity bubble. My forecast is 780.50 down 30% but I hope I'm wrong. Reasons: 10%+ unemployment, forecasts of as many as 13 million home foreclosures next year, lack of adequate banking reform, etc. Perhaps it's 1982 instead of 1932 - I certainly hope so.
Art
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Dave_M
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Location: Colorado

Post by Dave_M » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:55 am

1204.2
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tonythered
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Post by tonythered » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:03 pm

1271
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markmow
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Post by markmow » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:07 pm

1304.66

Happy New Year to All!
Hope springs eternal- Alexander Pope
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tomd37
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Location: Middle Tennessee

$1167.25

Post by tomd37 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:09 pm

$1167.25 "guestimate" by tomd37
Tom D.
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nonroom
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Location: Southeastern US

Post by nonroom » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:20 pm

1340.3
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.
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Igglesman
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Post by Igglesman » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:20 pm

1269
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norm
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Post by norm » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:22 pm

1210
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Mel Lindauer
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Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:22 pm

1085
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
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RJB
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Post by RJB » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:23 pm

1161.68

Thank you Taylor for settng this up.

Roy
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cptsales
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Post by cptsales » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:24 pm

my gues 1329
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gotherelate
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Location: Texas

Post by gotherelate » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:32 pm

1264.20

Maybe I was only a year off. :roll:

Grandpa
-Grandpa | I'd rather see where I'm going than see where I've been.
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SquawkIdent
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Post by SquawkIdent » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:33 pm

1115.09
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mews
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Post by mews » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:36 pm

1229 -


ta,
mew
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jdrmlr
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Post by jdrmlr » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:39 pm

1171.80
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KyleAAA
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Post by KyleAAA » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:45 pm

1350, I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy
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Alex Frakt
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Post by Alex Frakt » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:49 pm

1340
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Quasimodo
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Post by Quasimodo » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:49 pm

S&P 500 finishes the year at 444.

Thanks for your efforts, Taylor!

John
Last edited by Quasimodo on Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Many wealthy people are little more than janitors of their possessions. | | Frank Lloyd Wright, architect (1867-1959)
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abuss368
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Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Post by abuss368 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:50 pm

1149
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jml39
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Post by jml39 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm

1219
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mfen
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Post by mfen » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm

1278
Maryanne
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Display
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2010 Contest

Post by Display » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:56 pm

1185.60
Charles
Charles
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Dan Moroboshi
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Post by Dan Moroboshi » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:58 pm

1234

(Somebody had to do it, might as well be me)
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