2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
Post Reply
User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27102
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

2010 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST REGISTRATION

Post by Taylor Larimore » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:09 am

Hi Bogleheads:

Contest programer, Ralph Arvesen and I are pleased to announce our tenth annual Boglehead Contest to show the futility of trying to forecast the stock market and to see who can outguess the best Wall Street gurus.

Last year we had 282 Bogleheads register. Their forcasts for the S&P 500 Index at year's end ranged from 444 to 1659. The Index on December 31, 2009 was 1115.

mmg (who was in the bottom half of the 2008 Contest) is this year's contest winner with a guess of 1117. CONGRATULATIONS MMG! Contact me and your choice of a Boglehead book and a book by John Bogle will be delivered to your home.

We also congratulate all the Bogleheads who finished in the left-hand column with their above-average guesses. It is notable that 17 Bogleheads beat the best of the 12 Wall Street experts.

Boglehead Contest

Now, we get a chance to see who are the best Boglehead forecasters in 2010. But first, the Wall Street forecasts for 2010:

1275 David Blanco, Bank of America
1120 Barry Knapp, Barclays
1150 Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup
1125 Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suise
1260 Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank
1250 David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
1300 Thomas Lee, JPMorgan
1300 Brian Belski, Oppenheimer
1200 Myles Zyblock, RBC
1250 Thomas Doerflinger, UBS

Contest Rules:

* Guess the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2010.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration closes midnight January 10, 2010.
* In event of ties the first guess wins.
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2011 (to confirm user name and mailing address).
* Post your S&P forecast with your Reply here.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Top
User avatar
BigFoot48
Posts: 2564
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
Location: Arizona

1155.99

Post by BigFoot48 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:13 am

1155.99 About 3% up. Pessimistic this year. Thanks Taylor for all the fun!
Last edited by BigFoot48 on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser
Top
Ron
Posts: 6312
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:46 pm

Here we go, again...

Post by Ron » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:17 am

1282.37

- Ron
Top
User avatar
aainvestor
Posts: 512
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:12 pm
Location: Northern Virginia

Post by aainvestor » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:18 am

1320
Top
ramsfan
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:27 am

Post by ramsfan » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:21 am

1360.8.

Thanks for doing this!
Top
Bharat
Posts: 340
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 4:46 pm
Location: Somewhere between Appalachia and Atlantic

Post by Bharat » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:24 am

1285. Roughly 15% up from 2009.
Everything that you own, owns piece of you.
Top
User avatar
Tall Grass
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:11 pm
Location: Kansas

Post by Tall Grass » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:25 am

I'm lousy at this, but I'll try again. The best I've ever done in the past was #14 and #30. I think we've created a mini-bubble in the last few months, hence the anemic guess for this year.

My guess...1140
Last edited by Tall Grass on Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
"A wise man should have money in his head, but not in his heart." - Jonathan Swift
Top
User avatar
Opponent Process
Posts: 5157
Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:19 pm

Post by Opponent Process » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:30 am

1226.5
30/30/20/20 | US/International/Bonds/TIPS | Average Age=37
Top
User avatar
G-Money
Posts: 2867
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:12 am

Post by G-Money » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:31 am

1223
Top
User avatar
DelrayDave
Posts: 47
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 2:33 pm

Ok, here we go

Post by DelrayDave » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:36 am

My guess: 1204
Top
User avatar
speedbump101
Posts: 997
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:54 pm
Location: Alberta Canada

Post by speedbump101 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:43 am

1221.10
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein
Top
Antonio
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:47 pm

2010 Boglehead Contest

Post by Antonio » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:45 am

Happy New Year!

SP 500 for year ending Dec 31 2010 will be 1394
Top
User avatar
goosecat
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2007 11:57 pm

Post by goosecat » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:49 am

1313.13
Top
DPEMD
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 9:15 pm

Post by DPEMD » Fri Jan 01, 2010 10:54 am

1205
Top
Norris
Posts: 523
Joined: Tue May 08, 2007 10:04 am

Post by Norris » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:10 am

1211.00 (again)
Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated. Confucius
Top
User avatar
norookie
Posts: 3016
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:55 pm

Post by norookie » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:13 am

These are always fun. :lol: um,...1122.
" Wealth usually leads to excess " Cicero 55 b.c
Top
User avatar
theduke
Posts: 602
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2007 6:31 pm

Post by theduke » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:13 am

1331
Top
User avatar
bilperk
Posts: 534
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 7:00 am
Location: Florida

Post by bilperk » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:19 am

1301
Bill
Top
dandetour
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:21 am
Location: Texas

Post by dandetour » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:31 am

1215

Dan
Top
kenbrumy
Posts: 394
Joined: Sat Feb 28, 2009 5:13 pm

Post by kenbrumy » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:39 am

1339
Top
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 46070
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:
Contact LadyGeek

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:42 am

1276.54

LG
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Top
Rebecca_S
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 6:55 pm

Post by Rebecca_S » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:45 am

1212

Rebecca
Top
User avatar
weltschmerz
Posts: 339
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2009 9:17 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Post by weltschmerz » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:46 am

950
Top
User avatar
nick22
Posts: 859
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:00 am
Location: Ohio

Finished 10th

Post by nick22 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:47 am

Hey, I finished 10th! Does that mean I now get the job forecasting for Goldman Sachs?

My 2010 guess: 1260
Nick22
Top
User avatar
Dan_NoVA
Posts: 13
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 6:56 pm

WAG

Post by Dan_NoVA » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:49 am

1279

Thanks!

Dan
Top
User avatar
Fletch
Posts: 659
Joined: Thu Jun 04, 2009 1:25 pm
Location: USA

Post by Fletch » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:51 am

985
“Meaningless! Meaningless!” says the Teacher. Whoever loves money never has enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income. This too is meaningless.
Top
Pongo
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 9:13 am

Post by Pongo » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:52 am

1227

Pongo
Top
User avatar
artthomp
Posts: 327
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 4:44 pm
Location: Ballwin Missouri

Pessimistic Forecast

Post by artthomp » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:53 am

I'm not changing my allocation targets in case I'm wrong but it's hard to not be pessimistic that we're in another equity bubble. My forecast is 780.50 down 30% but I hope I'm wrong. Reasons: 10%+ unemployment, forecasts of as many as 13 million home foreclosures next year, lack of adequate banking reform, etc. Perhaps it's 1982 instead of 1932 - I certainly hope so.
Art
Top
Dave_M
Posts: 235
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:16 pm
Location: Colorado

Post by Dave_M » Fri Jan 01, 2010 11:55 am

1204.2
Top
tonythered
Posts: 834
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:08 pm

Post by tonythered » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:03 pm

1271
Top
markmow
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:35 am

Post by markmow » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:07 pm

1304.66

Happy New Year to All!
Hope springs eternal- Alexander Pope
Top
tomd37
Posts: 2800
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:39 pm
Location: Middle Tennessee

$1167.25

Post by tomd37 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:09 pm

$1167.25 "guestimate" by tomd37
Tom D.
Top
nonroom
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 8:44 am
Location: Southeastern US

Post by nonroom » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:20 pm

1340.3
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.
Top
User avatar
Igglesman
Posts: 435
Joined: Fri May 01, 2009 2:20 pm

Post by Igglesman » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:20 pm

1269
Top
norm
Posts: 594
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 7:10 pm

Post by norm » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:22 pm

1210
Top
User avatar
Mel Lindauer
Moderator
Posts: 28351
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm
Location: Daytona Beach Shores, Florida
Contact:
Contact Mel Lindauer

Post by Mel Lindauer » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:22 pm

1085
Best Regards - Mel | | Semper Fi
Top
User avatar
RJB
Posts: 321
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:39 pm
Location: /earth

Post by RJB » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:23 pm

1161.68

Thank you Taylor for settng this up.

Roy
Top
cptsales
Posts: 8
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2009 3:12 pm

Post by cptsales » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:24 pm

my gues 1329
Top
User avatar
gotherelate
Posts: 845
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 6:57 pm
Location: Texas

Post by gotherelate » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:32 pm

1264.20

Maybe I was only a year off. :roll:

Grandpa
-Grandpa | I'd rather see where I'm going than see where I've been.
Top
User avatar
SquawkIdent
Posts: 373
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 7:14 pm

Post by SquawkIdent » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:33 pm

1115.09
Top
mews
Posts: 239
Joined: Sun Dec 16, 2007 9:59 pm

Post by mews » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:36 pm

1229 -


ta,
mew
Top
jdrmlr
Posts: 41
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:45 pm

Post by jdrmlr » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:39 pm

1171.80
Top
KyleAAA
Posts: 6563
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:
Contact KyleAAA

Post by KyleAAA » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:45 pm

1350, I'm a glass-half-full kinda guy
Top
Alex Frakt
Founder
Posts: 10851
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 1:06 pm
Location: Chicago
Contact:
Contact Alex Frakt

Post by Alex Frakt » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:49 pm

1340
Top
User avatar
Quasimodo
Posts: 1357
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 1:58 pm

Post by Quasimodo » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:49 pm

S&P 500 finishes the year at 444.

Thanks for your efforts, Taylor!

John
Last edited by Quasimodo on Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Many wealthy people are little more than janitors of their possessions. | | Frank Lloyd Wright, architect (1867-1959)
Top
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 12460
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Post by abuss368 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:50 pm

1149
Top
jml39
Posts: 50
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:18 pm

Post by jml39 » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm

1219
Top
mfen
Posts: 672
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:23 am

Post by mfen » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:51 pm

1278
Maryanne
Top
Display
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:42 pm

2010 Contest

Post by Display » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:56 pm

1185.60
Charles
Charles
Top
User avatar
Dan Moroboshi
Posts: 866
Joined: Sat Jul 07, 2007 7:10 pm

Post by Dan Moroboshi » Fri Jan 01, 2010 12:58 pm

1234

(Somebody had to do it, might as well be me)
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Personal Consumer Issues”