Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace in Bay Area, CA

[mystiq]

Hi All,

I need the advise on whether to replace my existing Gas furnace and AC with Heat pump.

I live in Bay Area, CA and consume an average of 50 Therms per month gas from Nov till April for heating and around 250 KwH per month from June till Aug for cooling. At average cost of $ 2.4/Therm the heating costs me $720. And an average cost of $0.40/kWh the cooling cost comes to around $300. Put together I am paying $1000 for heating and cooling.

I wanted to electrify these appliances and install solar so did some research and came across heat pump as an alternative solution. Heatpumps has two ratings on is called HSPF2 and one is SEER2. Former indicates how good is heating and later tells the efficiency of cooling. For my usage (50 Therms of gas) A good heat pump plus split AC combined unit having HSPF2 rating of 10 will require 500 kwH / month for heating and SEER2 rating of 20 will cut AC power consumption by half. This means that I will require 500 kwH / month for 6 months for heating and 125 kWh/month for three months of cooling. The total $$ for this be $1350 in electricity cost per year an increase of 35% .

To have solar panel which will generate this additional power of 500 kWh/month, I need to shell out additional ~$6500 post tax. We can ignore the battery back up costs since I was planning to install two Tesla Powerwalls anyways with each having capacity of 13.5 kWh. As far as installation cost is concerned the minimum quote I got is $14000 (including $3000 Federal + State clean energy rebate). So the total cost to make for my heating and cooling off-grid is $20,500!

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently. Given these figures I would like to know your feedback or hear from from others who have thought about it or installed such system. Is there anyway I can cut the labor to make it cost effective or is it not a good idea. Also note that PGE has stopped NEM and pay like $0.10 / kWh for additional electricity.

[id0ntkn0wjack]

You might want to consider a home energy audit peformed by a certified rater. They can model the options anad provide you with a number of scenarios so that you can make an informed decision.

The cost of the audit may be subisdized by the Inflation Reduction Act:

https://homes.rewiringamerica.org/savings-calculator

[cmr79]

OP, you mentioned a lot of different potential goals in your post. You want to electrify, you are evaluating the price differential for heating, and you also mentioned being grid independent. Which of these is most important to you?

If you want to decrease your cost for heating and cooling, if your furnace and/or AC unit in need of replacement now or in the very near future? If not, it is hard to recoup the costs of installing a new system even if the ongoing costs will be lower, and your figures suggest that the costs will actually go up by a few hundred dollars per year. If you need to replace the furnace and AC unit regardless and care primarily about cost, you would want to compare the total cost of a replacement furnace and a replacement AC unit with the cost of replacing both with a heat pump. Which is cheaper depends a great deal on the price of HVAC quotes you can get in your area, so it wouldn't be clear cut which one is cheaper.

If you just want to be as electrified as possible and want to be able to discontinue gas service to your home...I'm not sure what your question is? If getting rid of the gas connection isn't critical, especially if the furnace is operational, you could consider replacing the AC unit with a heat pump and keeping the furnace in a dual fuel setup. You wouldn't have to worry quite as much about cold weather performance for the heat pump for rare very cold days, could probably use it for >95% of your Bay Area needs though and may even be able to kick on the gas furnace if there are unusually high electricity prices during any cold weather period, which I'm sure might occur time to time in California in general with the percentage of intermittent/renewable production you have.

If you want to be able to be mostly independent from the grid, you would need larger solar and battery systems than what you seem to be describing, especially in an area where you might have a number of foggy or overcast days in a row in the winter, when your heating needs are greater. The cost of being mostly grid independent is difficult to justify in most cases...you probably just want enough energy storage to be able to capture your excess in the middle of the day and get you through the peak demand period in the evening. You may only need one PowerWall to do that, but you didn't provide enough information to know for sure.

I second the consideration of an energy audit before you move forward with anything. It may identify efficiency/insulation issues with your home that, if corrected, would allow you to size a smaller HVAC system. A lot of homes were built with incorrectly sized HVAC systems (often oversized) to start with, so even if there isn't anything obvious to improve, it might help you to realize what your replacement needs actually are rather than guessing based on the BTU rating of your current furnace. This is an interesting video from a YouTuber addressing exactly this issue: https://youtu.be/DTsQjiPlksA?si=xVqlkqZrMSttb9bo

[Big Dog]

Great idea about the energy audits. A lot of older homes in the BA have zero insulation, including attic and crawlspace, as gas was dirt cheap when they built the homes. (My folks house had no insulation anywhere). Maybe plenty of ways to tighten the OP's envelope.

[illumination]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

[inverter]

Great idea about the energy audits. A lot of older homes in the BA have zero insulation, including attic and crawlspace, as gas was dirt cheap when they built the homes. (My folks house had no insulation anywhere). Maybe plenty of ways to tighten the OP's envelope.

Agree. Your heating usage is very high. How big is your house?

[beardsicles]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

[Big Dog]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

NatGas heating used to be a lot cheaper than electric heating. (CA had plenty of oil wells.). And many older BA homes weren't built with a/c or ducting. Just put a gas furnace in the basement with registers on the floor.

[RetiredAL]

OP -- At $2.40/therm for Gas and .40/kwh for Electricity, you will need a HP COP of approx 4.7 to break-even on the energy purchase cost alone. That is assuming 95% eff Gas Furnace.

[Wwwdotcom]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

Electricity prices in the bay area are over double the national average. Overall, I think the OP shouldn't do anything for now. If their AC goes down, just get a heatpump and duel fuel. If the furnace goes down, just switch over to 100% heat pump (and install solar), because its written on the wall that natural gas will be banned in CA. Even if natural gas doesn't get banned in our lifetime, its likely that the ban on new gas furnaces in 2030 will place unexpected pricing changes to natural gas. My bet is that the industry is keeping gas prices artificially low, to delay bans, but once the bans are effective, the prices will rise one way or another, maybe in the form a a sin-tax like cigarettes.

[NYCaviator]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

Electric heat strips are an option too. That's what we got because we wanted to totally "de-gas" our house. The installer said we probably didn't need it, but it barely added anything to the cost of the heat pump so I figured its good insurance.

[beardsicles]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

Electric heat strips are an option too. That's what we got because we wanted to totally "de-gas" our house. The installer said we probably didn't need it, but it barely added anything to the cost of the heat pump so I figured its good insurance.

Yeah, we have that option built into our heat pumps too. When the boiler fails we won’t replace it. It’s the last gas in our house. Felt prudent to keep when we first put the heat pumps in but now I don’t think so.

[LadyGeek]

I removed a post and reply on the "morality" of natural gas (global warming). As a reminder, see: Non-actionable or Trolling Topics

If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:

• US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
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• discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.

[Valuethinker]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

Electricity prices in the bay area are over double the national average. Overall, I think the OP shouldn't do anything for now. If their AC goes down, just get a heatpump and duel fuel. If the furnace goes down, just switch over to 100% heat pump (and install solar), because its written on the wall that natural gas will be banned in CA. Even if natural gas doesn't get banned in our lifetime, its likely that the ban on new gas furnaces in 2030 will place unexpected pricing changes to natural gas. My bet is that the industry is keeping gas prices artificially low, to delay bans, but once the bans are effective, the prices will rise one way or another, maybe in the form a a sin-tax like cigarettes.

This seems like good advice.

The challenge for the gas industry, and its consumers, is the "death spiral". The gas network has large fixed costs for maintenance and renewal. If there are fewer fewer households connected, then the remaining consumers (+ commercial/ industrial users) will have to bear higher and higher fixed costs per connection. A related problem is if the decision is made to terminate the gas network, then that has to be paid for as well - the system cleaned of (explosive and flammable) methane gas, the problem of aging pipes, unpressurised, then collapsing, etc.

Thinking purely in financial terms, the homeowner has "option value" in terms of how this plays out. Gas disconnection costs might be increased in the future - that's a risk. But, generally, it's not possible to forecast accurately how and when this will play out.

The additional cost for a heatpump over an AC should not be large. A HP with electric strips can handle very low temperatures (albeit expensively). New High Performance heat pumps handle very low temperatures quite well - and are appearing in the US market.

[alfaspider]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

There’s absolutely no reason to have a gas furnace in the Bay Area. We have both heat pumps and gas in Minnesota and have turned the gas on once in two years.

Electric heat strips are an option too. That's what we got because we wanted to totally "de-gas" our house. The installer said we probably didn't need it, but it barely added anything to the cost of the heat pump so I figured its good insurance.

I can't imagine you'd need the heat strips in coastal California. I went without them in Texas, and it handled a cold snap into the teens without issue (colder than it would ever get in the California bay area).

[THY4373]

Not in CA but I was faced with what to do when replacing a 30-year old gas furnace and 20 year old heat pump. I went with a high efficiency heat pump paired with a 97% gas furnace. I wasn't in a position to get rid of my gas service yet (e.g., I used gas for hot water and fire place--decent backup for heat if power is out). I also got a deal from my installer to be their first install of Mitsubishi's Intellitheat product which allows you to pair one of their heat pumps with a natural gas or propane furnace (without this discount I would have likely just gone all electric). I live in the mid-Atlantic region so my climate is both hot and still heating dominated. For me even with my highly efficient heat pump somewhere in the mid to upper 20s the natural gas furnace is more cost effective than heat pump. I also like the fact I can tweak the cut over to natural gas depending on my electric and gas rates at the time.

[Wwwdotcom]

I can't imagine you'd need the heat strips in coastal California. I went without them in Texas, and it handled a cold snap into the teens without issue (colder than it would ever get in the California bay area).

I think heat strips are quite inexpensive and worth it if the heat pump freezes up or stops working for some reason.

[Valuethinker]

I can't imagine you'd need the heat strips in coastal California. I went without them in Texas, and it handled a cold snap into the teens without issue (colder than it would ever get in the California bay area).

I think heat strips are quite inexpensive and worth it if the heat pump freezes up or stops working for some reason.

I am surprised that HPs are even sold without them.

Very expensive to run*, but when you need them, you need them.

* some parts of USA, people are paying 10 c/kwhr for electricity. Then they are not expensive to run by the standards of other consumers in other places (but your power bill will go up).

[alfaspider]

I can't imagine you'd need the heat strips in coastal California. I went without them in Texas, and it handled a cold snap into the teens without issue (colder than it would ever get in the California bay area).

I think heat strips are quite inexpensive and worth it if the heat pump freezes up or stops working for some reason.

I am surprised that HPs are even sold without them.

Very expensive to run*, but when you need them, you need them.

* some parts of USA, people are paying 10 c/kwhr for electricity. Then they are not expensive to run by the standards of other consumers in other places (but your power bill will go up).

The only time you would need them outside of extreme climates (which are probably not good fit for a heat pump anyways) is if the main heat pump failed. In many cases, the system would not be functioning even with the heat strips in that case (if the failure was caused by any of the electronics, for example). I think heat strips are mostly a holdover from the days of heat pumps that didn't work well in below-freezing temps. Some people are still running old school heat pumps like those.

[just frank]

Getting to net-zero energy costs more than using grid assets per hunit of energy.

In CA kWh are very dear.

I would do an energy audit to reduces your HVAC demand via retrofit.

In many other parts of the country, both heating and cooling would be much higher, and getting to net zero (without high insulation values) would still be prohibitive.

[mystiq]

You might want to consider a home energy audit peformed by a certified rater. They can model the options anad provide you with a number of scenarios so that you can make an informed decision.

Thanks for the reference. Will do.

Agree. Your heating usage is very high. How big is your house?

My home is around 1700 SQFT but I like to keep it warm at 70 and work mostly from home.

OP, you mentioned a lot of different potential goals in your post. You want to electrify, you are evaluating the price differential for heating, and you also mentioned being grid independent. Which of these is most important to you?

I want to save the utilities cost. I was ready to pay premium of up to 20% for removing dependence on natural gas.

I looked at the quotes from my solar vendor and per him, I can only make around ~8 kwH per day during winter for 6 KW panel capacity. This capacity is already at 150% of my current usage. Even if I double it, I still can not make enough solar power to heat the home. The best heat pump I saw has COP of around 3.5. So there is no way the economics work for me switch to fully solar and remove gas. So as of now I have to stick with gas.

[mystiq]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

The heatpump retails for around this price at various vendors but installation is like $10K on top of it. I wish I can train myself as HVAC technicians. They seem to be making more money .

[jameskay]

I am in Bay Area. I have gas furnace that is near death and must be replaced and have been talking to HVAC people. Best quote I got so far (4 bids) is ~30K for either heat pump or gas furnace! But that includes that I have to replace all ductwork too and house is ~2500SF. So your price looks really low by comparison. I cant help but wonder if HVAC persons located elsewhere in state or country would like to come for a visit to Bay Area and do it cheaper, as I gather much of the cost is for labor

[illumination]

You can still get a heat pump with a gas furnace, and then have more flexibility.

But my advice would be to keep a gas furnace, they simply work much better. I have both, I prefer the gas furnace. But you may have other goals in mind.

Please note that the heat pump equipment itself costs just around $4000 and my home doesn't require ducting or especial electric wiring as all are there currently.

This sounds like a real low ball number to me, especially in the Bay Area. Getting a new heatpump when you already have a working furnace/AC is not going to pencil out. I would think almost triple that number at a starting point.

The heatpump retails for around this price at various vendors but installation is like $10K on top of it. I wish I can train myself as HVAC technicians. They seem to be making more money .

I'm just curious why though your pricing it this way when you're not planning on a DIY. If you're making calculations, you probably want to use the price you plan on actually paying.

[gnujoe2001]

A heat pump rated for 0*F outdoor temp should provide more than enough margin for Bay Area winters without heat strips? Keep a kerosene heater and some 1-K in the garage for that one off freak winter storm and/or power outage.

Its been a few years since I left (Southern) California but from last I kept up, if you're in a position to replace a HVAC system it might be worth it to go ahead with a modern heat pump system as it seems the state aims to eventually ban new sales of gas furnaces, which from what I had understood also prohibited replacing like for like gas furnaces down the line.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/23/11245115 ... rs-by-2030

[ncbill]

I am in Bay Area. I have gas furnace that is near death and must be replaced and have been talking to HVAC people. Best quote I got so far (4 bids) is ~30K for either heat pump or gas furnace! But that includes that I have to replace all ductwork too and house is ~2500SF. So your price looks really low by comparison. I cant help but wonder if HVAC persons located elsewhere in state or country would like to come for a visit to Bay Area and do it cheaper, as I gather much of the cost is for labor

No need for either/or.

Most heat pump installs here (natural gas available) also include a gas furnace in the air handler as backup instead of electric heat strips.

The above option is usually called 'dual-fuel' & I would have it no other way.

[jameskay]

I am in Bay Area. I have gas furnace that is near death and must be replaced and have been talking to HVAC people. Best quote I got so far (4 bids) is ~30K for either heat pump or gas furnace! But that includes that I have to replace all ductwork too and house is ~2500SF. So your price looks really low by comparison. I cant help but wonder if HVAC persons located elsewhere in state or country would like to come for a visit to Bay Area and do it cheaper, as I gather much of the cost is for labor

No need for either/or.

Most heat pump installs here (natural gas available) also include a gas furnace in the air handler as backup instead of electric heat strips.

The above option is usually called 'dual-fuel' & I would have it no other way.

I got a dual-fuel quote that is not that much more than straight heat pump. However, I can get at least $2500 back if I go electric only based on available rebates in my area. I assume your preference for dual-fuel is to give you flexibility based on future relative prices of natural gas vs electricity?

[cmr79]

I am in Bay Area. I have gas furnace that is near death and must be replaced and have been talking to HVAC people. Best quote I got so far (4 bids) is ~30K for either heat pump or gas furnace! But that includes that I have to replace all ductwork too and house is ~2500SF. So your price looks really low by comparison. I cant help but wonder if HVAC persons located elsewhere in state or country would like to come for a visit to Bay Area and do it cheaper, as I gather much of the cost is for labor

No need for either/or.

Most heat pump installs here (natural gas available) also include a gas furnace in the air handler as backup instead of electric heat strips.

The above option is usually called 'dual-fuel' & I would have it no other way.

I got a dual-fuel quote that is not that much more than straight heat pump. However, I can get at least $2500 back if I go electric only based on available rebates in my area. I assume your preference for dual-fuel is to give you flexibility based on future relative prices of natural gas vs electricity?

A lot of us with dual fuel systems had them installed when available heat pumps (or at least commonly available in US) were less able to handle below freezing temperatures. For some with cheap NG, it won't lead to cost savings to upgrade any components in the system until they die, so there isn't much of an impetus to do it.

I don't have NG lines in my area, so my backup heating is propane. Even with a much more expensive heating fuel, it still doesn't make a lot of sense for me to upgrade my old single stage ASHP early...I use the backup propane furnace very infrequently as it is (which also means it has quite a bit of life left in it), and we have a propane fireplace, so I won't be digging the propane tank out of the yard even if the furnace goes away.

[random_walker_77]

I live in Bay Area, CA and consume an average of 50 Therms per month gas from Nov till April for heating and around 250 KwH per month from June till Aug for cooling. At average cost of $ 2.4/Therm the heating costs me $720. And an average cost of $0.40/kWh the cooling cost comes to around $300. Put together I am paying $1000 for heating and cooling.

Wow, in central texas, our worst cooling months come out to just under $300, using 90 kWh per *day*. But that's on a much larger house, with much cheaper electricity rates, to cool the house down to a comfortable 80F.

Regarding your situation, the financials clearly don't look so good. A 5% return on 20K is already $1000 per year. But it seems like the goal isn't financial savings so much as the ability to go off-grid? For the heat pump, you might also consider unducted mini-split systems. Get one or two, and your existing systems can just be used to supplement as needed. Something like this could theoretically be a diy install (or hire a handyman and/or electrician):
https://slickdeals.net/f/17698083-mrcoo ... rchV2Algo1

[Valuethinker]

I live in Bay Area, CA and consume an average of 50 Therms per month gas from Nov till April for heating and around 250 KwH per month from June till Aug for cooling. At average cost of $ 2.4/Therm the heating costs me $720. And an average cost of $0.40/kWh the cooling cost comes to around $300. Put together I am paying $1000 for heating and cooling.

Wow, in central texas, our worst cooling months come out to just under $300, using 90 kWh per *day*. But that's on a much larger house, with much cheaper electricity rates, to cool the house down to a comfortable 80F.

Part of this is cooling v heating? Your system is more efficient in cooling the house, than the OP would be in heating the house.

A Heat Pump (or AC) will deliver at least 3 units of heat moved for every unit of electricity consumed. So if your AC has a good Seasonal Energy Efficiency Rating (SEER) it will not need so much energy to keep the house cool v. keeping a house warm (electric bar heating would have a Coefficient of Performance of 1.0, HPs vary, Gas furnace has COP of c. 0.9-0.95). However gas is also much cheaper than electricity (closest probably in New England).

I imagine gas in CA is much cheaper than electricity, but gas is also more expensive than in Texas? (Logically so, because the pipeline distance is so much smaller).

[jabberwockOG]

$1,000 a year total for all heating and cooling? $83.33 per month. No brainer. Leave your current system in place until it absolutely has to be replaced with something else, hopefully many years in the future.

[ncbill]

I am in Bay Area. I have gas furnace that is near death and must be replaced and have been talking to HVAC people. Best quote I got so far (4 bids) is ~30K for either heat pump or gas furnace! But that includes that I have to replace all ductwork too and house is ~2500SF. So your price looks really low by comparison. I cant help but wonder if HVAC persons located elsewhere in state or country would like to come for a visit to Bay Area and do it cheaper, as I gather much of the cost is for labor

No need for either/or.

Most heat pump installs here (natural gas available) also include a gas furnace in the air handler as backup instead of electric heat strips.

The above option is usually called 'dual-fuel' & I would have it no other way.

I got a dual-fuel quote that is not that much more than straight heat pump. However, I can get at least $2500 back if I go electric only based on available rebates in my area. I assume your preference for dual-fuel is to give you flexibility based on future relative prices of natural gas vs electricity?

Register temperature is much higher using the gas furnace instead of the heat pump, plus the gas furnace/air handler can be run off an inverter connected to an auto's battery, or something like a EcoFlow/Anker/Bluetti large capacity battery/inverter should the power go out.

[random_walker_77]

I live in Bay Area, CA and consume an average of 50 Therms per month gas from Nov till April for heating and around 250 KwH per month from June till Aug for cooling. At average cost of $ 2.4/Therm the heating costs me $720. And an average cost of $0.40/kWh the cooling cost comes to around $300. Put together I am paying $1000 for heating and cooling.

Wow, in central texas, our worst cooling months come out to just under $300, using 90 kWh per *day*. But that's on a much larger house, with much cheaper electricity rates, to cool the house down to a comfortable 80F.

Part of this is cooling v heating? Your system is more efficient in cooling the house, than the OP would be in heating the house.

A Heat Pump (or AC) will deliver at least 3 units of heat moved for every unit of electricity consumed. So if your AC has a good Seasonal Energy Efficiency Rating (SEER) it will not need so much energy to keep the house cool v. keeping a house warm (electric bar heating would have a Coefficient of Performance of 1.0, HPs vary, Gas furnace has COP of c. 0.9-0.95). However gas is also much cheaper than electricity (closest probably in New England).

I imagine gas in CA is much cheaper than electricity, but gas is also more expensive than in Texas? (Logically so, because the pipeline distance is so much smaller).

No, I think it's cooling vs cooling. They quote 250kWh per month for cooling, and I'm sometimes over 2700 kWh per month in the summer. Then again, bigger house, and most days over 100F will do that.

[Valuethinker]

I live in Bay Area, CA and consume an average of 50 Therms per month gas from Nov till April for heating and around 250 KwH per month from June till Aug for cooling. At average cost of $ 2.4/Therm the heating costs me $720. And an average cost of $0.40/kWh the cooling cost comes to around $300. Put together I am paying $1000 for heating and cooling.

Wow, in central texas, our worst cooling months come out to just under $300, using 90 kWh per *day*. But that's on a much larger house, with much cheaper electricity rates, to cool the house down to a comfortable 80F.

Part of this is cooling v heating? Your system is more efficient in cooling the house, than the OP would be in heating the house.

A Heat Pump (or AC) will deliver at least 3 units of heat moved for every unit of electricity consumed. So if your AC has a good Seasonal Energy Efficiency Rating (SEER) it will not need so much energy to keep the house cool v. keeping a house warm (electric bar heating would have a Coefficient of Performance of 1.0, HPs vary, Gas furnace has COP of c. 0.9-0.95). However gas is also much cheaper than electricity (closest probably in New England).

I imagine gas in CA is much cheaper than electricity, but gas is also more expensive than in Texas? (Logically so, because the pipeline distance is so much smaller).

No, I think it's cooling vs cooling. They quote 250kWh per month for cooling, and I'm sometimes over 2700 kWh per month in the summer. Then again, bigger house, and most days over 100F will do that.

The impact of climate! My (row house, Victorian, London) has very poor thermal performance (we still have some of the original single pane glass windows. I have no idea how they survived so long - German bombing in WW2 etc). Probably half your square footage (40-50%).

My annual electricity consumption is close to your monthly. But I do not have air conditioning. But summers are getting hot and humid enough to possibly need it. My gas consumption on the other hand ... is nearly 10x my electricity consumption (in terms of kwhr ie delivered energy).

My electricity price is more or less 30 US cents/ kwhr. Gas I'd have to figure but probably 2x-3x your retail price.