The EV Life Cycle?

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PoorPlumber
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The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

I am curious as to others' opinions on how the EV life cycle will work.

First of all, I hope this doesn't divulge into an ICE against EV thread bash of either or both.

We kind of have an idea of the life cycle of ICE vehicles. And to my eye, many can operate as designed to the same efficiency (or inefficiency, I know...) 25 years later. Some go longer.
And they readily exchange hands pretty quickly when sold used to people that cannot afford something new or maybe for someone's first vehicle.
Finally, they end up in junkyards for parts and/or eventually crushed & recycled for raw material.

This cycle seems to traditionally carry high depreciation from original sales price to very low entry price many years later to the third owner with often the same performance (MPG) as new.

But I do not know or can't envision a similar cycle for EV's.

What's your opinion and how the EV life cycle is currently working and how the future may play out with them?

Thanks for all input.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by FIRWYW »

So. I see more recycling of components, though battery recycling still needs to be streamlined. At least for hybrids and early EVs, most manufacturers buy back or take back the batteries in the end. The rare earth metals have value but it does take effort to separate them. Similarly the motors have rarer metals that have value. The rest of the car is just a shell at the junkyard like an ICE. As to life span. We bought our leaf used so 2nd owner. We will probably run it into the ground and as battery depletes pass it down to person with smallest commute. (Ie I can make my daily 20-30 miles a day even when the battery is down to 30/86= 35% of capacity.) that should be 25 year down the road)
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Gecko10x »

The EV tech is changing much faster than ICE, so I would expect the depreciation curves to be different... perhaps a quicker drop up front, and then a shorter tail as the battery fails?
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PoorPlumber
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

I gather from the amount of views vs. responses that most can't envision the life cycle either.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by windaar »

Think of the "life cycle" of your cell phone, computer, printer, or other electronic devices that are from 2005 or 2010. They are obsolete, unsupported, useless, only marginally recyclable. I got a $200 internet radio that was "unsupported" in under 10 years and we had to set it out with the trash. That is what I expect to be the life cycle of EVs. The industry doesn't want us driving cars for 25 years any more than they want us using the same phone or computer for 25 years. Be prepared for your future cars to be eventual bricks!
Last edited by windaar on Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PoorPlumber
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

windaar wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:11 pm Think of the "life cycle" of your cell phone, computer, printer, or other electronic devices that are from 2005 or 2020. They are obsolete, unsupported, useless, only marginally recyclable. I got a $200 internet radio that was "unsupported" in under 10 years and we had to set it out with the trash. That is what I expect to be the life cycle of EVs. The industry doesn't want us driving cars for 25 years any more than they want us using the same phone or computer for 25 years. Be prepared for your future cars to be eventual bricks!
I do see many products purposely "life cycled" and not much real advancement in materials over the decades. But a definite trend to put software on the controls side to force subscription and/or obsolescence.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by PoorPlumber »

Duplicate post. Sorry.
Last edited by PoorPlumber on Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Battery and motor cost post warranty time could end the life of an EV. Especially if the battery is near end of life and a motor fails. I've seen auction EVs in the single digit thousands of dollars where the battery was completely removed. It doesn't appear that any of the EV manufacturers are working towards standardization or ease of replacement. BYD did have this in China for some time but as I understand it, have abandoned it. Their system was for "gas fill up" time to swap batteries instead of sitting there charging your EV. And I know there are companies out there who will rebuild a battery but at the moment, that's not a good option even for a do-it-yourselfer.

Especially with Tesla price reductions and the ability to get both federal and state money when buying a new EV, it makes a battery replacement senseless out of warranty. My own thought would be to do a "Rich Rebuilds" swap, putting an LS engine in at end of life, although I know that's a lot of work and fabrication required.
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mtn biker
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by mtn biker »

It’s just like the economy, we tend to just make assumptions based on what we currently know. But the unknowns will affect the most change. The pressure on the market from various forces will create the future life cycle of EVs, I don’t think it will be “designed” or imagined or worked out in advance.

What do gas and electricity costs do? What new tech comes in the world of batteries? How do the electric motors hold up over time? What happens to new electric vehicle costs in the future? Will government/consumers pressure companies to provide software and other updates to older cars or will they be fine with treating them like phones and just scrapping them when outdated but still functional? Etc etc…

Trying to imagine life cycle of an EV is fun, but a pure unknown at this point.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by momvesting »

Full disclosure: I’m not a scientist. I think that we are going to see a HUGE variation between vehicles, based on all kinds of factors including charging methods, climate, battery usage (how high/low the user frequency takes the battery), manufacturing differences, etc. This will cause the “I told you so” phenomenon on both ends as some people don’t get anything near the expected life out of their batteries and people who get 2-3x or more than the expected life. Because charging habits vary wildly, I don’t think I’d ever buy an EV used.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by RickBoglehead »

Gas vehicles are a known. EVs are an unknown. Nobody has a clue.

We went all EV last year. We never kept any vehicle more than 15 years, avg was probably 8. Now retired, no intention of going 8.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by NYCaviator »

There are some companies working on recycling tech for the lithium batteries, which would be pretty cool. But I'd wager that most newer ICE vehicles don't have the same life cycle that older ones do, just given the level of electronic complexity, huge screens, sensors, etc. I don't know that they'll really last 20-25 years, and even if they do, the repair costs would be astronomical. We're in a new age of planned obsolescence with cars.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by globalpatriot »

I just leased a Kia EV6 and it is amazingly good.

I think EV's will have working lives longer than they typical internal combustion car, basically as their systems are less likely to rust and leak. Seats and interiors will need to be refurbished before mechanical systems.

Maybe carbon fiber cars or other composites will replace the current metal chassis and body and thus make older cars less desirable?

Maybe "hot rod" shops will disassemble your old EV and make it into something more fun for you to use?

Regardless of car technology I hope the trend for walkable and bikeable transit enabled communities continue. But recent car technology is cool.

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TravelforFun
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by TravelforFun »

I only know my 2023 Tesla Model Y battery warranty is 8 years or 120K miles whichever comes first. This is good enough for me.

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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by CloseEnough »

PoorPlumber wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:02 pm I gather from the amount of views vs. responses that most can't envision the life cycle either.
I can see very clearly the "life cycle" in a macro sense for continued reliance on ICE and related energy products.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by nisiprius »

EV's are not a total unknown. Hybrid cars have been around for quite a while. Toyota introduced the Prius in 1997 in Japan; in the US in 2001; and by 2006 they were no longer rare on the road. I don't know the actual numbers but the (big traction) battery has a 10-year guarantee. A quick web search suggests that they in fact have been lasting for about the warranty period, ballpark ten years or 150,000 miles.

An EV is not just hybrid without an internal combustion engine, but with the exception of the battery an EV has fewer parts. There's no obvious reason for them not to last as long as, and reasonable hope for some of them to last longer than, an ICE car.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by random_walker_77 »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:03 pm EV's are not a total unknown. Hybrid cars have been around for quite a while. Toyota introduced the Prius in 1997 in Japan; in the US in 2001; and by 2006 they were no longer rare on the road. I don't know the actual numbers but the (big traction) battery has a 10-year guarantee. A quick web search suggests that they in fact have been lasting for about the warranty period, ballpark ten years or 150,000 miles.

An EV is not just hybrid without an internal combustion engine, but with the exception of the battery an EV has fewer parts. There's no obvious reason for them not to last as long as, and reasonable hope for some of them to last longer than, an ICE car.
As a former Prius owner, they are well known on the used market for being highly reliable. This dealer claims that the Prius has a higher percentage of cars still on the road after 15 years than the Toyota Highlander, which is itself one of the more reliable SUVs: https://www.kingstoyota.com/blog/2021/m ... a-last.htm

(as to why a former owner, my Prius was rear-ended and total'd, which I'm sure is part of the reason why many cars don't make it to 15 years)
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Badinvestor »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:03 pm There's no obvious reason for [EVs] not to last as long as, and reasonable hope for some of them to last longer than, an ICE car.
Some possibilities:

a) Growing American protectionism might mean that people in this country can only buy vehicles finally assembled in the US, from American marques. Historically, ICEs meeting those conditions have been much less durable than the good old Hondas and Toyotas.

b) Electronic interaction between battery and rest of vehicle will mean that each marque will control the market for replacement batteries for its own vehicles. Prices may be set so as to, umm, encourage buying a new car rather than replacing the battery.

c) Importers of computers and cellphones are accustomed to planned obsolescense, in which security updates end rapidly so as to encourage people to replace their hardware. Why would this not be extended to EVs?
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by calwatch »

BYD's idea was to use the used batteries for power cells. Even a 50% battery, which would be useless in a car, would be acceptable for a backup generator. But as battery prices come down, recycling may be more expensive than creating new.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by jdb »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:36 pm
Especially with Tesla price reductions and the ability to get both federal and state money when buying a new EV, it makes a battery replacement senseless out of warranty. My own thought would be to do a "Rich Rebuilds" swap, putting an LS engine in at end of life, although I know that's a lot of work and fabrication required.
With all due respect the term “senseless” may be an overstatement. We replaced the battery in our 2012 Tesla Model S last year, after 11 years and over 90,000 miles. Cost was $15K all in, and got a 4 year 50,000 mile warranty on new battery. The car drives like new, it was like getting new vehicle for $15K. We plan to replace the battery in our 8 year old Telsa Model X now with 60K miles in next few years when needed. Both vehicles look great and are low maintenance. Good luck.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by eigenperson »

Today, battery repair is an obscure skill and battery replacements are expensive. Ten years from now, at least one of those will be false. Battery repairs will be available cheaply everywhere in the country, unless replacements become so cheap they're not even worth repairing. Dead cells will be recycled, like lead-acid batteries are today.

Unlike cell phones, cars are not cheap enough for consumers to accept an explicit end of life. If any manufacturer* tries that, Toyota will eat their lunch, should they ever decide to make an electric car.

*Except Tesla... their fans will probably let them get away with anything.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by tuningfork »

One concern with any new car today, EV or not, is whether any of its features require connectivity to a network service, and what happens when that service is no longer supported. It could range from little or no impact for features you don't care about, to bricking the car.

My seven year old Jeep (ICE) had some 3G-based network features (such as voice text) that got bricked when nationwide 3G service was shutdown. Didn't affect me as I was unwilling to pay the monthly fee to use any of them, but surely some people thought it serious enough to buy a new car.

What if an EV has some fundamental feature that requires a server that gets shutdown due to bankruptcy or a legal dispute? Is there something in the charging infrastructure that could go awry? Maybe in a few years when every EV can use Tesla Superchargers, but Tesla decides to shut down Supercharger access to Ford owners because of a spat between the CEOs. Just like the cable and satellite TV contract disputes.

When Fisker likely goes bankrupt soon, I wonder how long their vehicles will be drivable?
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 4:36 pm Battery and motor cost post warranty time could end the life of an EV. Especially if the battery is near end of life and a motor fails. I've seen auction EVs in the single digit thousands of dollars where the battery was completely removed. It doesn't appear that any of the EV manufacturers are working towards standardization or ease of replacement. BYD did have this in China for some time but as I understand it, have abandoned it. Their system was for "gas fill up" time to swap batteries instead of sitting there charging your EV. And I know there are companies out there who will rebuild a battery but at the moment, that's not a good option even for a do-it-yourselfer.

Especially with Tesla price reductions and the ability to get both federal and state money when buying a new EV, it makes a battery replacement senseless out of warranty. My own thought would be to do a "Rich Rebuilds" swap, putting an LS engine in at end of life, although I know that's a lot of work and fabrication required.
NIO, not BYD, has been the company pioneering battery swapping stations in China. They currently have several hundred, along with a few dozen in Europe. They are trying to create battery swapping standards with some other Chinese EV companies, but it seems to still be quite early in that process.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cubs1999 »

eigenperson wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:55 pm

Unlike cell phones, cars are not cheap enough for consumers to accept an explicit end of life. If any manufacturer* tries that, Toyota will eat their lunch, should they ever decide to make an electric car.

*Except Tesla... their fans will probably let them get away with anything.
Toyota has an EV but it's not very good.TCCN gave it a poor review:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=l2tzln6UD-Q ... dIljuRpgJW

Part of the problem,.as I understand it, is Toyota really isn't invested into making EVs yet and just made this model to meet some regulations. I believe I've read Toyota is hoping for solid state battery tech to work out and create their EV fleet out of that. Also, they are heavily invested into Hybrid technology right now while (and apparently this is quite successful) while.they wait for this solid state battery tech to develop.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

PoorPlumber wrote: Tue Jun 04, 2024 5:11 pm I am curious as to others' opinions on how the EV life cycle will work.

First of all, I hope this doesn't divulge into an ICE against EV thread bash of either or both.

We kind of have an idea of the life cycle of ICE vehicles. And to my eye, many can operate as designed to the same efficiency (or inefficiency, I know...) 25 years later. Some go longer.
And they readily exchange hands pretty quickly when sold used to people that cannot afford something new or maybe for someone's first vehicle.
Finally, they end up in junkyards for parts and/or eventually crushed & recycled for raw material.

This cycle seems to traditionally carry high depreciation from original sales price to very low entry price many years later to the third owner with often the same performance (MPG) as new.

But I do not know or can't envision a similar cycle for EV's.

What's your opinion and how the EV life cycle is currently working and how the future may play out with them?

Thanks for all input.
Both the Nissan Leaf and one of the Tesla models have been around since 2012? I think BMW i3 since something like 2015?

So actually there are (now) millions of cars with millions of miles on them.

Nissan Leaf had a battery cooling problem. I believe that has now been resolved.

It is a reasonable question how software updates will work, going forward. We've all experienced planned obsolescence - Apple has pulled it on iPhone users, and Microsoft is doing it right now with "Artificial Intelligence" features (in effect a perfect keyboard logger?) in Windows 11 (and in effect forcing upgrades from Win 10).

But uncertainty about the reliability of an EV past 10 years is not a strong reason to avoid buying one, now.

What is true is that there will be a lot of new models and new features in the future. Depending on how the trade wars with China play out - eg if someone like BYD shifts production to Mexico or the USA or Vietnam, say - there will be a lot cheaper EVs.

That argues for leasing. The EV of 3-4 years from now is not what we have today.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

cubs1999 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 12:40 am
eigenperson wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:55 pm

Unlike cell phones, cars are not cheap enough for consumers to accept an explicit end of life. If any manufacturer* tries that, Toyota will eat their lunch, should they ever decide to make an electric car.

*Except Tesla... their fans will probably let them get away with anything.
Toyota has an EV but it's not very good.TCCN gave it a poor review:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=l2tzln6UD-Q ... dIljuRpgJW

Part of the problem,.as I understand it, is Toyota really isn't invested into making EVs yet and just made this model to meet some regulations. I believe I've read Toyota is hoping for solid state battery tech to work out and create their EV fleet out of that. Also, they are heavily invested into Hybrid technology right now while (and apparently this is quite successful) while.they wait for this solid state battery tech to develop.
They keep announcing solid state battery breakthroughs, and then nothing happens?

Toyota is gambling the EV market won't develop as fast as it might, and seems to be in some countries. This is an institutional blindness, and it reminds me of the mainframe computer manufacturers (IBM and the 7 Dwarves) in the face of the PC, DEC and the minicomputer in the face of the PC, and any number of other industry incumbents when the paradigm shifted on them.

It will be interesting to see whether Toyota wins its bet. VW seems to be taking the opposite bet - range of pure EV models, some quite good (albeit terrible software). The Chinese have grabbed the initiative - understood the supply chain and jumped on the opportunity.

My view is I can hear the future coming. It's coming with a whisper up my street (no on property parking) - Tesla, Kia, Hyundai, VW etc. In fact, it's already here, just not evenly distributed (quote stolen from William Gibson)
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by nisiprius »

Badinvestor wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:23 pm
nisiprius wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 7:03 pm There's no obvious reason for [EVs] not to last as long as, and reasonable hope for some of them to last longer than, an ICE car.
Some possibilities:

a) Growing American protectionism might mean that people in this country can only buy vehicles finally assembled in the US, from American marques. Historically, ICEs meeting those conditions have been much less durable than the good old Hondas and Toyotas.

b) Electronic interaction between battery and rest of vehicle will mean that each marque will control the market for replacement batteries for its own vehicles. Prices may be set so as to, umm, encourage buying a new car rather than replacing the battery.

c) Importers of computers and cellphones are accustomed to planned obsolescense, in which security updates end rapidly so as to encourage people to replace their hardware. Why would this not be extended to EVs?
tuningfork wrote: Wed Jun 05, 2024 8:56 pm One concern with any new car today, EV or not, is whether any of its features require connectivity to a network service, and what happens when that service is no longer supported. It could range from little or no impact for features you don't care about, to bricking the car.

My seven year old Jeep (ICE) had some 3G-based network features (such as voice text) that got bricked when nationwide 3G service was shutdown. Didn't affect me as I was unwilling to pay the monthly fee to use any of them, but surely some people thought it serious enough to buy a new car.

What if an EV has some fundamental feature that requires a server that gets shutdown due to bankruptcy or a legal dispute? Is there something in the charging infrastructure that could go awry? Maybe in a few years when every EV can use Tesla Superchargers, but Tesla decides to shut down Supercharger access to Ford owners because of a spat between the CEOs. Just like the cable and satellite TV contract disputes.

When Fisker likely goes bankrupt soon, I wonder how long their vehicles will be drivable?
I think these are "the future of the car" not "EV" problems. Yes, EVs are a few years "ahead" in their use of digital technology, and yes, Tesla in particular is making a point of being an iPad with an engine and wheels, but I don't think it's that big a difference.
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pseudoiterative
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by pseudoiterative »

there was a recent podcast episode from australia's national broadcaster re: The EV emissions claims tested: lifetime greenhouse gas footprint of an electric car compared with that of a petrol car.

the focus on lifetime emissions probably isn't bang-on what you're asking about, and some parts of the discussion will be bizarrely australian in perspective, but the discussion does touch on the different lifecycle phases of manufacturing, operating the car, and what happens at end of life.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by SpaghettiLegs »

I am on my second Tesla. First one I bought in 2013 and drove for almost 10 years before trading in on a new one. The range on the old one when I traded was about 200 miles. I suspect that the actual range on that battery was longer but was being limited by Tesla. The supercharging rate had gotten pretty slow on the first generation batteries as well. I don’t know about other EV’s but the Tesla battery is relatively straightforward to swap out. Search videos from about 6-7 years ago when Tesla was testing out battery swap stations for quick recharge on road trips.The motor is also easier to swap than an ICE system. I had my drive unit replaced once on the old Tesla and it took 1-2 days before I had it back.

Battery recycling details aside, I think life cycles of EV’s will be similar in duration to ICE. As battery capacity increases range degradation over several years becomes less critical. Just like there are some 20 yr old ICE vehicles you wouldn’t drive across country, same would apply to old EV’s.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by nisiprius »

I doubt that it's life-critical for Toyota to sell pure EVs right now. There is a fair amount of common technology between EVs and hybrids, and they do sell a plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile range. I understand that no new model is easy, and that they can't just take the ICE out of the Prius Prime and put in a bigger battery.

Chevy introduced the plug-in hybrid Volt in 2011. It was a reasonably popular car--a neighbor of mine has one and likes it. And they introduced the pure-EV Bolt in 2016. So, five-year time lag. As to what in the world was really going on, or why GM killed off two popular, successful, well-liked cars, who knows?

Toyota was, after all, pretty far out of the mainstream and going against consensus thinking when they introduced the Prius in 1997, so I'm not ready to assume they are total idiots. (GM, on the other hand...)
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Juice3 »

Tesla has sold over a million units for the first time in 2022. Over a 100K in 2017.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8547/tes ... ince-2012/

Honda by way of comparison sells 3-5M cars a year, every year
https://www.statista.com/statistics/267 ... -of-honda/
Plus something like another 10-15M motorcycles.

Ask your question again in oh a decade or two.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Juice3 »

Also of interest is that the car market has been relatively flat since showing real growth in the 90s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

Here people assume 8% annual growth. That is not the case the linked chart.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:09 am I doubt that it's life-critical for Toyota to sell pure EVs right now. There is a fair amount of common technology between EVs and hybrids, and they do sell a plug-in hybrid with a 40-mile range. I understand that no new model is easy, and that they can't just take the ICE out of the Prius Prime and put in a bigger battery.

Chevy introduced the plug-in hybrid Volt in 2011. It was a reasonably popular car--a neighbor of mine has one and likes it. And they introduced the pure-EV Bolt in 2016. So, five-year time lag. As to what in the world was really going on, or why GM killed off two popular, successful, well-liked cars, who knows?
The problem all the traditional car OEMs have - they don't know how to make an EV that is also profitable.

This reminds me so very much of the minicomputer industry.
Toyota was, after all, pretty far out of the mainstream and going against consensus thinking when they introduced the Prius in 1997, so I'm not ready to assume they are total idiots. (GM, on the other hand...)
Unfortunately I think the hybrid has blinded them to the EV. They can get into the game, but their DNA mitigates against it. This is so very much as Clay Christensen describes Disruptive Innovation. The incumbents are so good at meeting their existing customer need that they can't see that the world is changing around them. It's not that the incumbents are not good, it's that they are too good.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:15 am Tesla has sold over a million units for the first time in 2022. Over a 100K in 2017.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8547/tes ... ince-2012/

Honda by way of comparison sells 3-5M cars a year, every year
https://www.statista.com/statistics/267 ... -of-honda/
Plus something like another 10-15M motorcycles.

Ask your question again in oh a decade or two.
Honda is a what, 80 year old company? Toyota over 100 years old (less than that in cars).

Ford. BMW. Mercedes. GM. All over 100 years old.

Tesla might well not survive the inevitable industry ruptures. Just like Compaq say is not around, nor 100 early stage PC companies. Altair? SWTP? And one of the incumbent OEMs might crack this.

What's striking is how fast the Chinese have come up, and from what directions. Rapid innovation, cost leadership.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:25 am Also of interest is that the car market has been relatively flat since showing real growth in the 90s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

Here people assume 8% annual growth. That is not the case the linked chart.
Good point.

North America is a mature car market. Higher vehicle cost has been addressed by longer vehicle lives, and longer finance terms. It's pretty much saturated - growth in units will approximate population growth, probably.

It's what happens in Emerging Markets that will be of interest. And manufacturers that can meet that - you never see a North American car in an EM (Mexico might be an exception?) unless it's a real museum piece.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Juice3 »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:45 am Unfortunately I think the hybrid has blinded them to the EV. They can get into the game, but their DNA mitigates against it. This is so very much as Clay Christensen describes Disruptive Innovation. The incumbents are so good at meeting their existing customer need that they can't see that the world is changing around them. It's not that the incumbents are not good, it's that they are too good.
True disruption comes from an unexpected place or a place unwilling to be seen by current leaders.

Just maybe, self driving could be disruption in the automotive space by dis incentivizing people from owning cars at all and rather simply using the "uber" or rideshare model. Removing the human component from the Uber model would be game changing in terms of economics.

Current ridesharing costs of ~$1/mile are comparable to traditional car ownership costs today.

We talk about ICE v. EV but does it really matter where cars get power from? It may as well be Mr. Fusion.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 10:42 am
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:45 am Unfortunately I think the hybrid has blinded them to the EV. They can get into the game, but their DNA mitigates against it. This is so very much as Clay Christensen describes Disruptive Innovation. The incumbents are so good at meeting their existing customer need that they can't see that the world is changing around them. It's not that the incumbents are not good, it's that they are too good.
True disruption comes from an unexpected place or a place unwilling to be seen by current leaders.
Everybody has been to B School now - so "disruption" is something everybody thinks about. Hence the tech majors buying anything that could remotely be a threat (Youtube, Instagram, WhatsApp etc).

That doesn't mean you can't be disrupted. I bet Mercedes regrets selling their stake in Tesla.

People saw what the PC was doing quite early on. William Horatio Gates and Stephen Jobs, among others. IBM launched a highly successful PC Division which set the common industry standard - but that didn't save them. GM had Saturn - ditto successful in and of itself - they still lost the car market to the Japanese. It wasn't like the other steel makers didn't see what Nucor was doing. Microsoft saw what the internet was doing in 1995 - Gates' famous memo - but they have never really succeeded as an internet business (as opposed to a desktop software monopoly business, which is now migrating onto the Cloud).

What Christensen is saying is that it is the very nature of incumbents, by being successful incumbents, makes if difficult or impossible for them to compete on the new industry paradigm. Even if they see the threat. The incumbent OEMs know they are on a burning bridge - but their DNA is in the engine and the drivetrain, and it's hard to junk your DNA.

EVs are a whole new, and different, business model. More akin to a consumer products manufacturer - a kind of super iphone - rather than a conventional ICE car. That's the thing Tesla got to first - but of course that does not mean Tesla will be the eventual winner.
Just maybe, self driving could be disruption in the automotive space by dis incentivizing people from owning cars at all and rather simply using the "uber" or rideshare model. Removing the human component from the Uber model would be game changing in terms of economics.

Current ridesharing costs of ~$1/mile are comparable to traditional car ownership costs today.
There's issues with ridesharing - but that's a separate discussion.

The world has over 1 billion light passenger vehicles. There is very little now stopping sort of 80% of them from being Battery Electric Vehicles. An infrastructure problem (charging and actual getting the raw materials and building the things) rather than a technology problem. That's a heck of a lot of market to go for.

And there's a reason to go there. For what it's worth, I expect we will diddle around, and then sometime in the 2030s, it will acquire an unstoppable momentum. Different countries will cross that "tipping point" at different times - being the world's largest oil producer (ie the USA) will undoubtedly slow it down - for geostrategic reasons, the rest of us are in more of a hurry.

We talk about ICE v. EV but does it really matter where cars get power from? It may as well be Mr. Fusion.
That's a kind of deflection. Usually people mention Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (which will likely be important for large transport such as heavy trucks, railways, barges and ships). Just name some other "would be even better" technology. Which we don't have. And which we don't have visibility on -- fuel cells at affordable costs, hydrogen distribution network, etc.

(I have the same feelings about truly Autonomous Vehicles. The problem is just incredibly difficult).

The point with disruptive change is that the "not good enough" technology gets "just good enough" and offers a set of features that consumers will value. It's a while then before it starts to eat the incumbents - because they still have highly profitable and successful niches where they fulfill a market need.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by vfinx »

If public chargers become ubiquitous, then perhaps old EVs with degraded range will still be very useful. I have extended family that recently purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range they say. It works great for them. They did mention that they would have never done this without access to the supercharger network.

I also hope (though not necessarily believe) that some sensible regulation will come in to ensure batteries can be replaced / reconditioned economically to keep old EVs out of the junkyard. I believe one of the Tesla founders (JBS) has built a sizable company around battery recycling.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Juice3 »

vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range
This the part I do not understand and is directly related to the topic/thread.

This is a 10yo 15-18K car in need of a 20K repair. If I told you it was a ICE car, it would headed to the scrap yard.

Cars still have a huge vanity factor especially in U.S.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am If public chargers become ubiquitous, then perhaps old EVs with degraded range will still be very useful. I have extended family that recently purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range they say. It works great for them. They did mention that they would have never done this without access to the supercharger network.

I also hope (though not necessarily believe) that some sensible regulation will come in to ensure batteries can be replaced / reconditioned economically to keep old EVs out of the junkyard. I believe one of the Tesla founders (JBS) has built a sizable company around battery recycling.
It's probably in the interests of the OEMs to have that recycling cycle created. Certainly in Europe, they will be forced to it.

"Right to repair" is a thing but ofc that doesn't mean it will happen.

The batteries will be valuable as home batteries and in other stationary power applications. So that's where I suspect they will go.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by Valuethinker »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 12:07 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range
This the part I do not understand and is directly related to the topic/thread.

This is a 10yo 15-18K car in need of a 20K repair. If I told you it was a ICE car, it would headed to the scrap yard.

Cars still have a huge vanity factor especially in U.S.
*New* cars do. But that's only roughly 5% of all the cars out there. There's a lot of people who don't have a financial choice what they buy. Who drive what they can afford, that meets their needs.

It's not that the EV doesn't run/ isn't safe but rather that it does not run as well. Whereas the ICE car is not worth repairing, the EV car w a somewhat diminished battery still has utility for people who:

- need another car
- drive it short daily mileage
- can't afford a newer or better car

Certainly in the UK, I would guesstimate 80% of new EVs are sold on various forms of lease financing. Maybe more. So we are really talking about off-lease vehicles.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by vfinx »

Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 12:07 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 11:40 am purchased a 2014 Tesla with 120k on the odometer. It has about 60% of its original stated range they say. It works great for them.
This the part I do not understand and is directly related to the topic/thread.

This is a 10yo 15-18K car in need of a 20K repair. If I told you it was a ICE car, it would headed to the scrap yard.

Cars still have a huge vanity factor especially in U.S.
Added back the sentence you clipped out.

I guess the point is that the range is still more than sufficient for them. They don't plan to do a battery replacement. They don't see it as needing a massive repair, and just plan to run it to the ground. I don't know what the degradation curve is for a battery this old, so perhaps the gamble will not pay off. Also in our area an old beat up Model S has zero vanity factor so I doubt that's why they purchased it. Their pattern before this was to purchase 10 year old Accords.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by like2read »

I'm thinking of the propane tank swaps I do when I need more fuel for my backyard gas grill.

All I want from an EV is for the upfront vehicle cost to be significantly less than a comparable ICE vehicle. And, to be able pull into any, ubiquitous battery swap station, where a robot would put in a fully charged, universally standard battery, in under 5 minutes. Of course in my dream world, the battery swap would cost way less than a full tank of gasoline.

Well, dreams are cheap at least.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by slipknot »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:49 am
Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:25 am Also of interest is that the car market has been relatively flat since showing real growth in the 90s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

Here people assume 8% annual growth. That is not the case the linked chart.
Good point.

North America is a mature car market. Higher vehicle cost has been addressed by longer vehicle lives, and longer finance terms. It's pretty much saturated - growth in units will approximate population growth, probably.

It's what happens in Emerging Markets that will be of interest. And manufacturers that can meet that - you never see a North American car in an EM (Mexico might be an exception?) unless it's a real museum piece.
Valuethinker, your last sentence is a lie.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by tjtv »

The end of a car's lifecycle, aka the junkyard, comes when it's no longer worth fixing the car. On old cars that may be 25 years, but on newer cars(both EV and ICE) I suspect it's much lower due to the complex electric and other systems now in place. Most electronics are warrantied only for 10 years.

A few examples that apply to both newer EV and ICE after say 15 years:
1. Are the screens still usable?
2. Do the airbags still work?
2a. Are you comfortable driving in a vehicle where airbag functionality is questionable?
3. Does the car require network connectivity, and is it still functional?
4. Is engine management computer still working properly.

And then a few issues that apply mostly to EVs:
1. Since EVs are heavier but manufacturers mostly haven't beefed up the suspension components, will they need earlier/more frequent suspension replacements?
2. Batteries, but of course that has been throughly mentioned by others.
3. Electronic systems for charging.
4. Wiring for battery/charging system and potential roden/critter/corrosion damage.

I think we'll start to see a trend where smart manufacturers are able to figure out the lifetime of parts that are expensive enough that once they fail push a car into the junkyard for being too expensive to repair, and then start cheaping out on the other parts and systems in their vehicles to also have failure points in the same timeframe. As a contrived example - there's no point in equipping a vehicle with seats that can last 30 years when you know that the too-expensive-to-repair battery will fail at 10 years anyway.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by vfinx »

tjtv wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:51 pm The end of a car's lifecycle, aka the junkyard, comes when it's no longer worth fixing the car. On old cars that may be 25 years, but on newer cars(both EV and ICE) I suspect it's much lower due to the complex electric and other systems now in place. Most electronics are warrantied only for 10 years.

A few examples that apply to both newer EV and ICE after say 15 years:
1. Are the screens still usable?
2. Do the airbags still work?
2a. Are you comfortable driving in a vehicle where airbag functionality is questionable?
3. Does the car require network connectivity, and is it still functional?
4. Is engine management computer still working properly.

And then a few issues that apply mostly to EVs:
1. Since EVs are heavier but manufacturers mostly haven't beefed up the suspension components, will they need earlier/more frequent suspension replacements?
2. Batteries, but of course that has been throughly mentioned by others.
3. Electronic systems for charging.
4. Wiring for battery/charging system and potential roden/critter/corrosion damage.

I think we'll start to see a trend where smart manufacturers are able to figure out the lifetime of parts that are expensive enough that once they fail push a car into the junkyard for being too expensive to repair, and then start cheaping out on the other parts and systems in their vehicles to also have failure points in the same timeframe. As a contrived example - there's no point in equipping a vehicle with seats that can last 30 years when you know that the too-expensive-to-repair battery will fail at 10 years anyway.
I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by cmr79 »

slipknot wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 2:34 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 8:49 am
Juice3 wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:25 am Also of interest is that the car market has been relatively flat since showing real growth in the 90s

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA

Here people assume 8% annual growth. That is not the case the linked chart.
Good point.

North America is a mature car market. Higher vehicle cost has been addressed by longer vehicle lives, and longer finance terms. It's pretty much saturated - growth in units will approximate population growth, probably.

It's what happens in Emerging Markets that will be of interest. And manufacturers that can meet that - you never see a North American car in an EM (Mexico might be an exception?) unless it's a real museum piece.
Valuethinker, your last sentence is a lie.
That seems a bit harsh. It is certainly true that Ford and Chevrolet do, indeed, have footprints in EMs like Africa and South America, but they often sell models that aren't available in the US in those markets and have much lower penetration than they do here in the US...more akin to their market penetration in Europe and East Asia.

I was taught to avoid using "always" and "never" in writing, as few things are absolute. When reading those terms, I usually assume that some hyperbole is involved--which, rather than dishonesty, is almost certainly the case here.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by nisiprius »

vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to receive security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).

I personally experienced an issue like this with the Nuvomedia Rocket eBook which I purchased around the year 1999. I had about $250 worth of eBooks that I "owned." Nuvomedia was purchased by a company called Gemstar. Every book was DRM-protected and linked to a hardware serial number in the device. The story of what to do if the device failed was "no problem, buy a new device, apply to Gemstar to change your registered serial number, and re-download your content.

Gemstar was run by a "genius" who was an idiot and did stupid things. If you observed online that he had done a stupid thing, Gemstar fans would "explain" that you Just Didn't Get It because you were not part of their target market. Gemstar folded in 2003 and shut down their servers. The rechargeable battery in my device failed a few years later, leaving me with absolutely no way to read the content that I "owned."

That probably happened to less than a thousand people and nobody cares or should care much about it. The only reason the same thing can't happen to Kindle eBooks is that Amazon is big and successful, but Amazon is big and successful and like to remain so for a while, so, no problem.

How much danger there is of that happening to cars remains to be seen, but certainly the risk of EV companies failing is very real these days... and the risk of car companies staying in business but pulling the plug on software support for older models is plausible, too.

Serious question for Tesla owners: about how often does Tesla push a software update to your vehicle? A much harder question to answer is what percentage of them are not related to any kind of improvement, but are merely maintenance, running to stay in the same place... for example, security patches?
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by vfinx »

nisiprius wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 6:48 pm
vfinx wrote: Thu Jun 06, 2024 3:56 pm ...I believe the average age of vehicles on the road has been trending up, not down. There was a time when cars wouldn't be expected to last 100k miles. Now that would be considered low...
True, but what's being discussed is the possibility that EVs will end that trend due to "bitrot" issues (cars become unrepairable and unable to received security patches because nobody wants to support 12-year-old software).
The post my response was made to explicitly stated that the suspicion is for non-EVs as well.
On old cars that may be 25 years, but on newer cars(both EV and ICE) I suspect it's much lower due to the complex electric and other systems now in place.
But perhaps more to the point, I don't see why an EV would be at greater risk of bitrot than ICE cars. They both have millions of lines of code, and cloud-based features.
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Re: The EV Life Cycle?

Post by just frank »

Going back to the OP, and skimming the replies... I think there is an important point missing.

Engineering analyses suggest that the projected cost of building EVs will fall exponentially from their current value (near cost parity with ICE) by roughly 10% per year for the next 7-10 years. By the rule of 72, this predicts that the real cost of an EV in the 2030s will be half that of an equivalent size ICE vehicle.

These analyses take into account that EVs are much simpler machines than ICE vehicles, with fewer moving parts and sliding surfaces, and projections that the cost of batteries will eventually asymptote to a small multiple of the cost the minerals within them, as has happened with other tech in the past.

The result is that an EV would likely be a steal compared to an ICE vehicle after 2030, even if it only lasted half as long. And it seems likely that they will last just as long if not longer (by virtue of being simpler machines). Lower maintenance, and lower cost of energy will make TCO less than half that of ICE, handily.

As for battery longevity, that is not much of a concern today, and it will likely improve with time. And if it doesn't, an EV battery nowadays only costs a bit more than an ICE engine, and in the future will likely cost less... so swapping out a battery will be a rare thing like replacing an engine in an ICE vehicle, and have a similar cost/benefit analysis.

The thing that I can't see is how the existing 'lifecycle of ICE vehicles' will not be entirely disrupted/replaced by far cheaper and better EVs, likely around 2028-2030.
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