Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

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Wwwdotcom
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Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

Now that we are in 2024, I'm hoping to see if anyone has insights and experiences on buying cheap intermediate range EVs?

Back in 2020 there was a thread about buying cheap short range EVs. viewtopic.php?t=303516&start=50

Personally, I'm having a challenging time figuring out how much I want to toy around with an expired "bumper-to-bumper" warranty car that may still have its EV components warrantied.
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windaar
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by windaar »

I'd be concerned about eventual resale value, which is an issue people are starting to talk about. Not too long aso I sold a 13 year old ICE Honda for $9K. Will any EV that old be worth anything? And not to sound smart, but aren't ALL EVs "intermediate" range? :happy
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alfaspider
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by alfaspider »

windaar wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:16 pm I'd be concerned about eventual resale value, which is an issue people are starting to talk about. Not too long aso I sold a 13 year old ICE Honda for $9K. Will any EV that old be worth anything? And not to sound smart, but aren't ALL EVs "intermediate" range? :happy
Here's a 13 year old EV that recently sold for $85k:

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2011- ... r-sport-4/

The Model S isn't quite 12 years old, but 12 year old examples are still listing for around $15k.

https://www.autotrader.com/marketplace/ ... ip%3D77007


The really cheap EVs are low range compliance cars from the 2010s. They have very poor resale because the market for a car with less than 100 miles range is extremely limited. On cars with useful range, the depreciation is not too different from a similar class ICE counterpart (although Tesla price cuts and the tax credit have distorted the market for late model used EVs- something the OP can take advantage of).

To the OP: if you qualify for the used EV credit, I'd look at a Bolt. You could likely get a very lightly used one for under $15k if you can find a participating dealer.
corduroysuit
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by corduroysuit »

It’s only been about 6 months but I am really happy with my 2018 Bolt, and expecting to get a $4K tax credit.

Lots of these have had battery replacements so they come with up to 10 years/10k miles warranty on the battery. I’m not accustomed to owning cars that still have a bumper to bumper warranty still intact, so not really a big difference for me.
88Mike
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by 88Mike »

I'm extremely happy with my Nissan Leaf that I bought used for 12,000 six years ago. Have done nothing except for purchase new tires. It is an exceptionally cheap, reliable, and surprisingly powerful car for around town use and commuting. Perfect for a two car family when the other car is used for road trips.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by cmr79 »

Recent post from an auto reviewer on YouTube who is usually pretty critical about EVs (and particularly EV prices) talking about some models available for a big discount lightly used due to current market distortions:
https://youtu.be/lLuiU7XYuUg?si=rhdpiw04NaH25zk8
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by MGBMartin »

My wife and I looked at a few in November 2020; Leaf and Soul EV.
We bought the Soul EV 2017 model. We understood the very limited range but planned on using it as a tootle around town car.
We’ve been very impressed with it, very quiet, very practical for our needs.
The range did decrease over time and took a significant dive all of a sudden. Knowing the warranty was 10 years we took it to the dealership last April and 9 days later we had a new traction battery installed under warranty. The only problem was right around the time the battery was installed Kia announced a problem with the batteries but didn’t know the extent. So, 6 months later they issued a recall that includes the battery they had just replaced. We are booked in next Wednesday and I believe they will just tell us they have to replace the battery again but it’s my understanding that Kia cannot supply the batteries fast enough and the wait might be significant but Kia authorize a loaner or rental.
We have no regrets and driving the Soul for the past 3 years or so has convinced us that EV will be our future.
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Pdxnative
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Pdxnative »

What do you consider cheap and intermediate range?

Used LEAFs with 150 mile range are around 15k now, minus the 4k used federal tax credit if you and the car qualify.

I’d do that in a heartbeat for an around town car that met my needs. (Bolts, Kona, Nero, etc probably competitive in this range too).

If you’re willing to go up to 25k or so you could probably get a used polestar, ID.4, etc., that is a bit bigger, more suitable if you do a lot of road tripping.

The older LEAFs with 80ish mile range are around 5-6k but I assume most people would consider that short range these days.

I wouldn’t have warranty concerns with most of these EVs any greater than with an ICE (less, in fact, given the battery warranties).

What is your use case?
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

I appreciate all the posts. It seems like with due diligence and a battery warranty, most issues should be minimal.
Pdxnative wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 2:45 pm What is your use case?
It will just be a 2nd garaged car for around town use. 95% of our trips are less than 6 miles so I think it will be good. We live in the x-urbs, so it is nice to have a car with plenty of range for round-trips to the city if the gas car is preoccupied. Overall, we would primarily use it as a test car before we fully transition into the EV world over the next 10 years. By cheap, my definition would be priced lower than a similar aged civic or corolla (probably around $8k-$18k).

windaar wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:16 pm And not to sound smart, but aren't ALL EVs "intermediate" range? :happy
Intermediate is definitely going to be a matter of opinion, but I think of intermediate as something with a range that allows for 150-250 miles in warm weather. I consider many of the first gen EVs that came out in the early 2010's to be short-range.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by MH2 »

A used Tesla Model 3 and Y would be my choice. The EV depreciation issue is overblown.

If you’re only driving less than a couple miles a day, why not look at a PHEV with an electric driving mode?
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by billaster »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 5:46 pm Overall, we would primarily use it as a test car before we fully transition into the EV world over the next 10 years. By cheap, my definition would be priced lower than a similar aged civic or corolla (probably around $8k-$18k).
For a lower cost EV test car, a used Bolt or LEAF is probably your best deal. There's a lot of these around. In a couple of years you will have a much better idea of what you want and need for an EV and there will be a lot more options available. Don't over-spend on your first EV.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by TheGreyingDuke »

corduroysuit wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:58 pm It’s only been about 6 months but I am really happy with my 2018 Bolt, and expecting to get a $4K tax credit.

Lots of these have had battery replacements so they come with up to 10 years/10k miles warranty on the battery. I’m not accustomed to owning cars that still have a bumper to bumper warranty still intact, so not really a big difference for me.
I was told by a large Chevy dealer who does a big business in redone Bolts that the battery warranty on these units starts from the original in-service date of the vehicle.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by TheGreyingDuke »

MH2 wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:20 pm A used Tesla Model 3 and Y would be my choice. The EV depreciation issue is overblown.

If you’re only driving less than a couple miles a day, why not look at a PHEV with an electric driving mode?
S/he would be way better served, given the use case, in an EV. Why haul around all that extra stuff if it is never going to be used?
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by corduroysuit »

TheGreyingDuke wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 7:03 pm
corduroysuit wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:58 pm It’s only been about 6 months but I am really happy with my 2018 Bolt, and expecting to get a $4K tax credit.

Lots of these have had battery replacements so they come with up to 10 years/10k miles warranty on the battery. I’m not accustomed to owning cars that still have a bumper to bumper warranty still intact, so not really a big difference for me.
I was told by a large Chevy dealer who does a big business in redone Bolts that the battery warranty on these units starts from the original in-service date of the vehicle.
That’s flat-out wrong. Just looked up my VIN on GM’s site and it’s showing a 2031 expiration for the battery warranty (on a 2018 model car).
However it is possible that the 10-year clock is starting at the date of the recall announcement rather than the date of the actual battery replacement.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by TheGreyingDuke »

Excellent information and I verified it on the Chevy website.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by madbrain »

corduroysuit wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 7:16 pm That’s flat-out wrong. Just looked up my VIN on GM’s site and it’s showing a 2031 expiration for the battery warranty (on a 2018 model car).
However it is possible that the 10-year clock is starting at the date of the recall announcement rather than the date of the actual battery replacement.
Our Bolt 2017, purchased January of 2017, had a battery replacement date of 1/30/2020 . The battery warranty expiration date is showing as 1/30/2030, as well as 171364 miles, or 100,000 miles more than the mileage on the day of the replacement.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

MH2 wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:20 pm A used Tesla Model 3 and Y would be my choice. The EV depreciation issue is overblown.

If you’re only driving less than a couple miles a day, why not look at a PHEV with an electric driving mode?
Purely due to $. For the amount of miles that I drive, I don't think a PHEV will ever be more economical than a similar model year Camry or a full EV.
billaster wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:46 pm For a lower cost EV test car, a used Bolt or LEAF is probably your best deal. There's a lot of these around. In a couple of years you will have a much better idea of what you want and need for an EV and there will be a lot more options available. Don't over-spend on your first EV.
Agreed.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

madbrain wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:59 pm
corduroysuit wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 7:16 pm That’s flat-out wrong. Just looked up my VIN on GM’s site and it’s showing a 2031 expiration for the battery warranty (on a 2018 model car).
However it is possible that the 10-year clock is starting at the date of the recall announcement rather than the date of the actual battery replacement.
Our Bolt 2017, purchased January of 2017, had a battery replacement date of 1/30/2020 . The battery warranty expiration date is showing as 1/30/2030, as well as 171364 miles, or 100,000 miles more than the mileage on the day of the replacement.
I thought something was odd here. I think the 10 years warranty is primarily a California rule instead of the usual 8.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by madbrain »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:28 pm I thought something was odd here. I think the 10 years warranty is primarily a California rule instead of the usual 8.
CARB sets some rules on minimum warranties. There are other states than California following the CARB rules.
For BEVs like our Bolt, I believe CARB mandates 10 years/100,000 minimum battery warranty.
For PHEVs, I think it is 10 years/150,000 miles battery warranty. Our 2015 Volt is nowhere near that mileage but will go out of warranty mid next year.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by MH2 »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Mon Feb 12, 2024 7:23 pm
MH2 wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:20 pm A used Tesla Model 3 and Y would be my choice. The EV depreciation issue is overblown.

If you’re only driving less than a couple miles a day, why not look at a PHEV with an electric driving mode?
Purely due to $. For the amount of miles that I drive, I don't think a PHEV will ever be more economical than a similar model year Camry or a full EV.
New, I agree. Used... a quick search on AutoTempest shows a lot of gently used G20 BMW 330es for at or slightly below 30K.

I'd take that over a similarly priced Camry any day. 40-50 mpg with a very reliable engine and tuning potential if you get one with the B48B motor :beer
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

I would say that whenever trying out a new technology, one shouldn't jump in with a huge expenditure to get the best or most expensive model.

Its good to 'get ones feet wet' and try things out. You might learn that you don't like it, and can turn around and sell the first purchase. Or you might discover that you DO like it, your use case is a little different than you thought, and you want a better version... and sell the first purchase.

I get that Bogleheads like to buy the perfect car for the perfect price and drive it for eons. That approach is not suited to the EV space where the tech is getting both BETTER rapidly and CHEAPER rapidly. And its utility varies a lot with your particular use case.

So folks asking themselves 'Which EV should I get that will last for 15-20 years, or have the best resale value?' are missing the point. All EVs will have 'bad' looking resale the same way computers have bad resale value. Why buy used when the newer models are better and cheaper?

If the OP wants to 'get his feet wet' a used Bolt, Gen 2 LEAF or old Kona, for $10-15k before rebate is a great place to start. For city driving, and a second vehicle, it will be a useful and low cost experiment.

I've bought two Bolts myself. I wouldn't worry about the warranty, bc OP is unlikely to still own the car in 5 years, having replaced it with a 'real' EV by that time. Unless it gets passed to a teen driver as a third vehicle or something.

I'm on my 4th EV right now, none a Tesla. But the prices on Teslas have come down so far, I may get one when my lease is up Q3 2025.

The Model Y was the best selling car on the planet in 2023, taking the Camry's crown. The updated 'Juniper' version looks very compelling, and should be on sale in the US sometime this year.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by kleiner »

just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am So folks asking themselves 'Which EV should I get that will last for 15-20 years, or have the best resale value?' are missing the point. All EVs will have 'bad' looking resale the same way computers have bad resale value. Why buy used when the newer models are better and cheaper?
Around twenty years ago, I used to tell people to hold off on buying computers until they knew they really needed one since they got obsolete very quickly. In contrast, I am now typing this on a three year old M1 MacBook Air that is still has as much utility as it did on the day I bought it. I don't plan to change this laptop for the foreseeable future.

I am perfectly happy to wait for as long as it takes for EVs to get to this level of maturity before I buy one.

In the mean time, I am more than content with my 2021 Honda CR-V which serves my needs perfectly. Fuel, maintenance and insurance for this car are a negligible fraction of my annual expenses. I am retired and don't commute to work in my car. I get no pleasure from driving, since I live in a crowded area.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

kleiner wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:42 am
just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am So folks asking themselves 'Which EV should I get that will last for 15-20 years, or have the best resale value?' are missing the point. All EVs will have 'bad' looking resale the same way computers have bad resale value. Why buy used when the newer models are better and cheaper?
Around twenty years ago, I used to tell people to hold off on buying computers until they knew they really needed one since they got obsolete very quickly. In contrast, I am now typing this on a three year old M1 MacBook Air that is still has as much utility as it did on the day I bought it. I don't plan to change this laptop for the foreseeable future.

I am perfectly happy to wait for as long as it takes for EVs to get to this level of maturity before I buy one.

In the mean time, I am more than content with my 2021 Honda CR-V which serves my needs perfectly. Fuel, maintenance and insurance for this car are a negligible fraction of my annual expenses. I am retired and don't commute to work in my car. I get no pleasure from driving, since I live in a crowded area.
Fair. You are not, apparently, an 'early adopter'. Different strokes. I like to experiment with the new tech, if I can do so on a budget. And each of the 4 EVs I have owned have been cheaper than a comparably sized ICE vehicle of the same model year.

But unlike home computer adoption, which was a new market segment, EVs are entering into a competitive space that already exists.. legacy ICE cars. And the interesting prediction is that by 2030, a new EV will cost half what an ICE car costs up front, in addition to having half the cost for fuel and half the cost of maintenance. And better longevity. :)

Mass adoption of EVs will be driven by sticker price, TCO and value.

So, perhaps like the OP, now is a good time to check out what the new tech has to offer, on a budget. So that when the switch happens (going all EV, rather than EV as a second vehicle, for example), you can make a wise purchase at that time.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by alfaspider »

kleiner wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:42 am
just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am So folks asking themselves 'Which EV should I get that will last for 15-20 years, or have the best resale value?' are missing the point. All EVs will have 'bad' looking resale the same way computers have bad resale value. Why buy used when the newer models are better and cheaper?
Around twenty years ago, I used to tell people to hold off on buying computers until they knew they really needed one since they got obsolete very quickly. In contrast, I am now typing this on a three year old M1 MacBook Air that is still has as much utility as it did on the day I bought it. I don't plan to change this laptop for the foreseeable future.

I am perfectly happy to wait for as long as it takes for EVs to get to this level of maturity before I buy one.

In the mean time, I am more than content with my 2021 Honda CR-V which serves my needs perfectly. Fuel, maintenance and insurance for this car are a negligible fraction of my annual expenses. I am retired and don't commute to work in my car. I get no pleasure from driving, since I live in a crowded area.
A fundamental difference between EVs and Computers is that "obsolete" doesn't mean the same thing. An obsolete computer cannot perform the basic tasks most people need because the software it can run is no longer supported and it cannot interface with current computers. However, even an obsolete electric car can still get you around town just fine.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am
I've bought two Bolts myself. I wouldn't worry about the warranty, bc OP is unlikely to still own the car in 5 years, having replaced it with a 'real' EV by that time. Unless it gets passed to a teen driver as a third vehicle or something.
If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:37 pm
just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am
I've bought two Bolts myself. I wouldn't worry about the warranty, bc OP is unlikely to still own the car in 5 years, having replaced it with a 'real' EV by that time. Unless it gets passed to a teen driver as a third vehicle or something.
If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
If current (linear) trends persist the EV in 15 years will be (almost) unimaginably better as a product. Range, cost etc.

So "owning for 15 years"? This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)? Like buying a PC in 1980 (not as extreme as that*) - IBM PC cost $3k, had 256k RAM etc. Depreciation is quite likely to be steep on EVs for that reason.

Accept that in 5 years time you will be looking at something new. This is trying out a whole new product and it's very hard to get that right on the first try. The whole point of buying used is so that you can "learn by doing" and find out what really matters to you.

* the better analogy is the early days of the Ford Model T. But I don't know that history so well.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:52 am
kleiner wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:42 am
just frank wrote: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:47 am So folks asking themselves 'Which EV should I get that will last for 15-20 years, or have the best resale value?' are missing the point. All EVs will have 'bad' looking resale the same way computers have bad resale value. Why buy used when the newer models are better and cheaper?
Around twenty years ago, I used to tell people to hold off on buying computers until they knew they really needed one since they got obsolete very quickly. In contrast, I am now typing this on a three year old M1 MacBook Air that is still has as much utility as it did on the day I bought it. I don't plan to change this laptop for the foreseeable future.

I am perfectly happy to wait for as long as it takes for EVs to get to this level of maturity before I buy one.

In the mean time, I am more than content with my 2021 Honda CR-V which serves my needs perfectly. Fuel, maintenance and insurance for this car are a negligible fraction of my annual expenses. I am retired and don't commute to work in my car. I get no pleasure from driving, since I live in a crowded area.
A fundamental difference between EVs and Computers is that "obsolete" doesn't mean the same thing. An obsolete computer cannot perform the basic tasks most people need because the software it can run is no longer supported and it cannot interface with current computers. However, even an obsolete electric car can still get you around town just fine.
"The Network is the computer" in Oracle CEO Larry Ellison's words. Ironic given what has happened. Nowadays we might write "the iPhone is the computer".

Agree that the network benefits of EVs are much less. Ditto however the compatibility issues - it's really about the chargers, and not much else.

The world is going to drive EVs. America may be slow to the party (major oil producing countries will tend to be - US is both world's largest oil producer, and (still) its largest consumer). But the corner has been turned. It is just a matter of when, rather than if. Hydrogen (for light passenger vehicles) is an also-ran.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by billaster »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)?
I don't know that I would call the Tesla Roadster a mass market EV. They sold a grand total of less than 2,500 over its 5 year production at a price of $125,000 ($170,000 in today's dollars). Nissan sold 10 times that many in just its first year in 2011.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

billaster wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:21 am
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)?
I don't know that I would call the Tesla Roadster a mass market EV. They sold a grand total of less than 2,500 over its 5 year production at a price of $125,000 ($170,000 in today's dollars). Nissan sold 10 times that many in just its first year in 2011.
I may be guilty of stretching the point.

I was looking for 2 EVs that I knew the name of, other than the EV1. So I picked those two.

I had thought EVs would come at the market from the Nissan Leaf end. Commuter specials. Instead, the big winner turned out to be the one that came from the high end, with superior performance and a brand image. Tesla. That is not what I would have predicted.

There was an Indian-built thing here called a "G Whiz" which was, in fact, licensed as an enclosed motorbike not as a car. I thought that would be huge - not least because of concessions on our Congestion Charge (£12.50 on weekdays to drive into the centre of London). But, in fact, it was a curiousity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REVAi first model was 2001 to 2007 in the UK. Looks like a version was sold in USA as well as a "Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle".

(When I found out it did not have the safety standards of a car, I kind of lost interest in it).
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am
Wwwdotcom wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:37 pm If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
If current (linear) trends persist the EV in 15 years will be (almost) unimaginably better as a product. Range, cost etc.

So "owning for 15 years"? This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)? Like buying a PC in 1980 (not as extreme as that*) - IBM PC cost $3k, had 256k RAM etc. Depreciation is quite likely to be steep on EVs for that reason.

Accept that in 5 years time you will be looking at something new. This is trying out a whole new product and it's very hard to get that right on the first try. The whole point of buying used is so that you can "learn by doing" and find out what really matters to you.

* the better analogy is the early days of the Ford Model T. But I don't know that history so well.
I don't think the price or technological trajectory of EVs can ever match PCs, especially in the US. A few reasons..
1. There are huge import and safety restrictions that insure american driven cars are expensive. This restriction is pretty limited for PCs. Even then, most of the major PC improvements and price cost reductions occurred before the patriot act.
2. Car technological changes including EVs are extremely slow. IMO if they were a "tech" industry, all cars should have already implemented old proven technologies such as drive/fly-by-wire, carbon-fibre frames etc.
3. A used leaf from 2011, still costs $5k. A desktop built in 2000, would of been nearly worthless by 2013. At the end of the day, EVs really haven't improved that much, maybe just the battery.

Obviously, if there is legislation to ban manual driving where all cars needed to be auto-piloted, I imagine our cars will become worthless, and I would be okay with the minor sunk cost I am putting in.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:08 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am
Wwwdotcom wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:37 pm If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
If current (linear) trends persist the EV in 15 years will be (almost) unimaginably better as a product. Range, cost etc.

So "owning for 15 years"? This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)? Like buying a PC in 1980 (not as extreme as that*) - IBM PC cost $3k, had 256k RAM etc. Depreciation is quite likely to be steep on EVs for that reason.

Accept that in 5 years time you will be looking at something new. This is trying out a whole new product and it's very hard to get that right on the first try. The whole point of buying used is so that you can "learn by doing" and find out what really matters to you.

* the better analogy is the early days of the Ford Model T. But I don't know that history so well.
I don't think the price or technological trajectory of EVs can ever match PCs, especially in the US. A few reasons..
1. There are huge import and safety restrictions that insure american driven cars are expensive. This restriction is pretty limited for PCs. Even then, most of the major PC improvements and price cost reductions occurred before the patriot act.
2. Car technological changes including EVs are extremely slow. IMO if they were a "tech" industry, all cars should have already implemented old proven technologies such as drive/fly-by-wire, carbon-fibre frames etc.
3. A used leaf from 2011, still costs $5k. A desktop built in 2000, would of been nearly worthless by 2013. At the end of the day, EVs really haven't improved that much, maybe just the battery.

Obviously, if there is legislation to ban manual driving where all cars needed to be auto-piloted, I imagine our cars will become worthless, and I would be okay with the minor sunk cost I am putting in.
The point here is that ICE cars (at least at the low end) are a low-margin low-profit business. Hard to innovate in such an enterprise.

EVs have a lot fewer moving parts, and parts in total than an ICE car. So engineering analyses suggest that the _manufacturing_ price of an EV should reach a level below half that of a similar ICE car. So, unless some anti-capitalist process exists that allows EV builders to command 100% profit on all their wares (which could happen, I suppose) then we should see sales prices fall.

The cost of a used car is a reflection of its value. The cost of a new car is given my the manufacturing cost plus profit. And of course, the value of the used car is measured by the new car it competes with. EVs should push down the whole market, eventually.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by alfaspider »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:08 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am
Wwwdotcom wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:37 pm If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
If current (linear) trends persist the EV in 15 years will be (almost) unimaginably better as a product. Range, cost etc.

So "owning for 15 years"? This is a new technology, modern EVs only date from about 2012 (?) (I am thinking the Tesla Roadster, and the Nissan Leaf, which I think were the first 2 mass market EVs)? Like buying a PC in 1980 (not as extreme as that*) - IBM PC cost $3k, had 256k RAM etc. Depreciation is quite likely to be steep on EVs for that reason.

Accept that in 5 years time you will be looking at something new. This is trying out a whole new product and it's very hard to get that right on the first try. The whole point of buying used is so that you can "learn by doing" and find out what really matters to you.

* the better analogy is the early days of the Ford Model T. But I don't know that history so well.
I don't think the price or technological trajectory of EVs can ever match PCs, especially in the US. A few reasons..
1. There are huge import and safety restrictions that insure american driven cars are expensive. This restriction is pretty limited for PCs. Even then, most of the major PC improvements and price cost reductions occurred before the patriot act.
2. Car technological changes including EVs are extremely slow. IMO if they were a "tech" industry, all cars should have already implemented old proven technologies such as drive/fly-by-wire, carbon-fibre frames etc.
3. A used leaf from 2011, still costs $5k. A desktop built in 2000, would of been nearly worthless by 2013. At the end of the day, EVs really haven't improved that much, maybe just the battery.

Obviously, if there is legislation to ban manual driving where all cars needed to be auto-piloted, I imagine our cars will become worthless, and I would be okay with the minor sunk cost I am putting in.
Re #1: I don't think that's entirely true so much as the capability expectations of PCs have continued to increase. The "one laptop per child" program begin in 2005 when the retail price of a laptop was $1,000+ and the idea of a $100 laptop was a moonshot project. Today, you can buy an Android tablet for $70 that is far more capable than anything that was available in 2005. The fact that you can still buy $1,000 laptops is mostly a product of extreme increases in capabilities. But there are still plenty of windows laptops in the $300-500 space, which wasn't true until the later half of the 2010s.

RE #2: Carbon fiber frames actually are available, but generally only in very high-end cars (though some slightly less exotic cars like the BMW i3 and Alfa Romeo 4c have used them. Drive by wire has actually been implemented now on the Cybertruck.

I think in both cases, the issue is that the cost/beneift is not the same in automotive land as in aircraft land. In airplanes, reducing weight helps the airline make more moeny by saving fuel and allowign more cargo. In a car, it does reduce weight but with very high cost relative to the overall vehicle price. It usually doesn't make sense to add $20k to the cost of a vehicle over a more conventional material like Steel unless you are building something that is very weight sensitive like an exotic sports car.

Re #3: The difference between a Leaf and something like a Tesla Model 3 is pretty dramatic in terms of range, charge speed, and overall vehicle capabilities. Universal availability of fast charging will be the next big tech leap in EVs. The very best EVs like the Lucid Air can charge 250 miles in 15 minutes. If every EV out there could charge that fast, and reliable chargers that could do that were universally available, that would be quite the game changer.

To some extent, it depends on perspective. You could make the argument that cars haven't really improved much since the 1950s. A car from the 1950s in good condition will still reliably take you from Point A to Point B and can maintain modern highway speed limits. It still does the core task just the same as a car 70 years newer. However, the modern car is infinitely more capable and advanced in a lot of ways. But not everyone cares about those additional capabilities.

I think where computers get put in is the rapid advance of EVs over the last 20 years. 20 years ago, there were no EVs available consumers (other than cancelled limited projects like GMs EV1). 15 years ago, they were extremely limited and there was no way for an EV to drive further than a couple hundred miles from home because there were no chargers that could charge more quickly than overnight. 5 years ago, things were dramatically better, but public chargers basically didn't exist unless you had a Tesla. Market share has also gone from less than 1% in 2016 to almost 10% by the end of 2023. So there really have been some dramatic changes.

I'd also note that computers looked like they were in stasis to someone in the 1970s. The electronic computer was invented in the 1940s, but it wasn't until the late 1970s until they started to appear in homes. It wasn't until 20 years after that they became ubiquitous. It was 60 years from ENIAC to the world wide web. But in the short period from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, PCs went from business and hobbyist machines to something every person had in their home. I can see EVs getting to a similar tipping point even though they aren't there yet. I think we are still where PCs were in the mid-1980s: available, but still relatively expensive and limited for most.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

alfaspider wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:00 pm .....

I'd also note that computers looked like they were in stasis to someone in the 1970s. The electronic computer was invented in the 1940s, but it wasn't until the late 1970s until they started to appear in homes. It wasn't until 20 years after that they became ubiquitous. It was 60 years from ENIAC to the world wide web. But in the short period from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, PCs went from business and hobbyist machines to something every person had in their home. I can see EVs getting to a similar tipping point even though they aren't there yet. I think we are still where PCs were in the mid-1980s: available, but still relatively expensive and limited for most.
I would say the EV = computer analogy is quite imperfect. Computers were NEW, and so new use cases had to be discovered for them. And those use cases evolved as computers got faster.

With EVs, they are just _cars_. They are rapidly converging to the same or better performance, and lower price, in the same, existing use cases. Currently, there are some use cases (long road trips with 10 minute bathroom and fuel breaks, heavy towing over long ditance) where EVs don't compete, for the rest, they do very well. The existing user base for cars, and EVs being able to just take them over, imply much faster adoption than 60 years.

Better examples might be the switch from Black and White to Color TVs, or the adoption of Broadband vs Dialup. Both were quite rapid.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by randomguy »

just frank wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:15 pm
alfaspider wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:00 pm .....

I'd also note that computers looked like they were in stasis to someone in the 1970s. The electronic computer was invented in the 1940s, but it wasn't until the late 1970s until they started to appear in homes. It wasn't until 20 years after that they became ubiquitous. It was 60 years from ENIAC to the world wide web. But in the short period from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, PCs went from business and hobbyist machines to something every person had in their home. I can see EVs getting to a similar tipping point even though they aren't there yet. I think we are still where PCs were in the mid-1980s: available, but still relatively expensive and limited for most.
I would say the EV = computer analogy is quite imperfect. Computers were NEW, and so new use cases had to be discovered for them. And those use cases evolved as computers got faster.

With EVs, they are just _cars_. They are rapidly converging to the same or better performance, and lower price, in the same, existing use cases. Currently, there are some use cases (long road trips with 10 minute bathroom and fuel breaks, heavy towing over long ditance) where EVs don't compete, for the rest, they do very well. The existing user base for cars, and EVs being able to just take them over, imply much faster adoption than 60 years.

Better examples might be the switch from Black and White to Color TVs, or the adoption of Broadband vs Dialup. Both were quite rapid.
Computer power basically doubled every 18 months. Battery tech (i.e. only a small part of an EV car) is more like 10% every 18 months. Nice improvement but over 10 years there is a huge difference between something like doubling your range from say 200 miles to 400 miles versus the computer that would have gone from 200 miles to 6400 miles.... Those 2012 model S are still pretty decent from a drive train point of view. In terms of usability, the change from 1995 camry with its 13s 0-60 time versus the 2007 one that was getting low 9s was bigger. And yes looking back those 80s/90s cars were slugs:)

Cars have always progressed and when you looked back 10+ years, the old models tend to look pretty dated. But people have always been willing to pay for cheaper transportation and the cost reduction in EVs is not anywhere near close to depreciation. Resale will be fine unless there are major durability concerns (i.e. all those batteries/motors die at 150k. Or the electronics die).

You are going to need something really disruptive (i.e. those solid state batteries with 10x the capacity and half the cost start shipping in a year, everyone wants the mythical self driving car) to change that. Now the people that drastically overpaid for Teslas when the supply chain got disrupted are going to lose a ton but that has nothing to do with EVs. The people who paid 20% over MSRP on ICE are going to be in the same boat. It just will not be as obvious as they paid dealer market up instead of a higher MSRP.

Now if you don't want the first 10 years of EVs from any maker, I can't blame you. Making cars is hard and it is going to take a long time until people know how to make an EV as reliable as something like Toyota Camry that they have been refining for 40+ years. Toyota have a good idea how ICEs age over 20+ years. With EVs we just don't have the institutional knowledge.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:08 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 5:19 am
Wwwdotcom wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:37 pm If all goes well, I'm planning to own it at least 15 years. For my lifestyle, I can't imagine ever owning two long range EVs.
I don't think the price or technological trajectory of EVs can ever match PCs, especially in the US. A few reasons..
1. There are huge import and safety restrictions that insure american driven cars are expensive. This restriction is pretty limited for PCs. Even then, most of the major PC improvements and price cost reductions occurred before the patriot act.
American cars always look cheap to a European. Of course you typically quote net price (pre sales taxes) and we quote gross ones (including VAT).

Import restrictions? Maybe -- I don't know enough. Cars are made tariff free in Canada and Mexico. The problem is they are low margin -- auto makers don't make a lot of money selling them. So other than the Dacia -- a Romanian built Renault which has become a best selling brand due to cheapness plus adaptations for poorer roads - I can't think of cheap brands that might be sold in another developed country and not the USA. It's just the US market doesn't like small cars.

Safety? I agree things like airbags are expensive technology. But are cars sold in any developed country without air bags? And I would include middle income countries like Malaysia and Mexico in that.

EVs will be an interesting one. The Chinese have really engineered down the costs. Those are starting to enter Europe, and local carmakers are squawking. There is an anti-dumping investigation.

I think American cars are expensive because American buyers like big & luxurious vehicles, and consumer finance is organised to allow them to afford them.
2. Car technological changes including EVs are extremely slow. IMO if they were a "tech" industry, all cars should have already implemented old proven technologies such as drive/fly-by-wire, carbon-fibre frames etc.
3. A used leaf from 2011, still costs $5k. A desktop built in 2000, would of been nearly worthless by 2013. At the end of the day, EVs really haven't improved that much, maybe just the battery.
If you look at battery capacity and life, then a 2024 EV is on a different level than a 2014 one. It is impressive how batteries get denser, and cheaper. A 2011 Leaf has a range of what, 80-90 miles?

Linear improvements not exponential ones.

You would be surprised how many really old computers there are around - embedded systems, primarily. Windows XP is still a thing - gulp.

(A friend works for NASA. They still use 4 and 8 bit chips in some applications - designs straight out of early 1980s. Code in Assembler language).
Obviously, if there is legislation to ban manual driving where all cars needed to be auto-piloted, I imagine our cars will become worthless, and I would be okay with the minor sunk cost I am putting in.
AV still seems a long way off. I always thought it would first be adopted on high use freeways (urban freeways in particular) and it would become mandatory in those applications.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:15 pm
alfaspider wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:00 pm .....

I'd also note that computers looked like they were in stasis to someone in the 1970s. The electronic computer was invented in the 1940s, but it wasn't until the late 1970s until they started to appear in homes. It wasn't until 20 years after that they became ubiquitous. It was 60 years from ENIAC to the world wide web. But in the short period from the early 1990s to the early 2000s, PCs went from business and hobbyist machines to something every person had in their home. I can see EVs getting to a similar tipping point even though they aren't there yet. I think we are still where PCs were in the mid-1980s: available, but still relatively expensive and limited for most.
I would say the EV = computer analogy is quite imperfect. Computers were NEW, and so new use cases had to be discovered for them. And those use cases evolved as computers got faster.

With EVs, they are just _cars_. They are rapidly converging to the same or better performance, and lower price, in the same, existing use cases. Currently, there are some use cases (long road trips with 10 minute bathroom and fuel breaks, heavy towing over long ditance) where EVs don't compete, for the rest, they do very well. The existing user base for cars, and EVs being able to just take them over, imply much faster adoption than 60 years.

Better examples might be the switch from Black and White to Color TVs, or the adoption of Broadband vs Dialup. Both were quite rapid.
I think the DVD player had an almost vertical S Curve.

Smartphones also did that.

Agree in case of EV it is about duplicating the functionality of an existing product.

Because cars last 20 years there will be a long legacy tail - always. It's like appliance efficiency standards - it takes 10-20 years before their full effect has kicked in, and even then there are still 1980s fridges running (with the owners probably not realising, maybe not caring, that they are using 4-5x the electricity of a modern fridge).
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by 02nz »

alfaspider wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 1:51 pm The really cheap EVs are low range compliance cars from the 2010s. They have very poor resale because the market for a car with less than 100 miles range is extremely limited. On cars with useful range, the depreciation is not too different from a similar class ICE counterpart (although Tesla price cuts and the tax credit have distorted the market for late model used EVs- something the OP can take advantage of).

To the OP: if you qualify for the used EV credit, I'd look at a Bolt. You could likely get a very lightly used one for under $15k if you can find a participating dealer.
+1. I'd add that my 2020 Kia Niro EV has a very reliable and practical car, and it's bigger and drives a bit better than the Bolt (which I also test drove). I'm seeing lightly used ones under $20K.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by 02nz »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:26 am If you look at battery capacity and life, then a 2024 EV is on a different level than a 2014 one. It is impressive how batteries get denser, and cheaper. A 2011 Leaf has a range of what, 80-90 miles?
The big jump came around 2017-2018, when the Bolt and Model 3 were the first affordable EVs (around $40K) with decent range (about 250 miles). Today's EVs don't have that much more range at that price level.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

02nz wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:36 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:26 am If you look at battery capacity and life, then a 2024 EV is on a different level than a 2014 one. It is impressive how batteries get denser, and cheaper. A 2011 Leaf has a range of what, 80-90 miles?
The big jump came around 2017-2018, when the Bolt and Model 3 were the first affordable EVs (around $40K) with decent range (about 250 miles). Today's EVs don't have that much more range at that price level.
I'd say its a bit more nuanced than that. I agree on the Bolt and the Model 3 in that time frame, but there were two problems. GM wasn't making money on the Bolt at that price, so it didn't scale the volume of production. And Tesla was making money on the model 3, but it didn't cost $40k in practice, only more expensive models were sold. And as often pointed out, the model 3 was a very bare bones vehicle (with a lot of tech) with a harsh ride, thin paint, etc. Engineered for cost containment.

But today, the price of the model 3 (and model Y) are much lower than they were then (the Y used to cost $60k), and the model 3 has been refreshed to a much higher quality vehicle (better ride, interior materials and soundproofing, among other things), and the Y refresh will be here in 12 mos. And that is before incentives. Both now cost much less than they did in 2020. And the Y is the best selling car on the planet.

And the Bolt is out of production, bc GM was tired of losing money on it. And figured folks would pay $20k more for an Equinox EV.

Entry level EVs do still have the same ~250 mile range as those vehicles, but the batteries in those EVs cost a fraction (and weigh less) than the same range batteries in 2017. And many models have a long range variant that goes 300-350 miles, for those that have more money.

And fast charge speeds on even these entry level models are much higher than that era. Instead of stopping for an hour in a Bolt, or 30 minutes in a model 3, most of these entry level cars now charge in 15-20 minutes. This latter number is MUCH better for road trips, excepting only a few people who insist that they need to have 5-10 minute stops max.

As someone who has been driving EVs since 2014, todays models are hugely more capable, and lower priced, than the badly compromised EVs of 2017.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by 02nz »

just frank wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:05 am
02nz wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:36 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:26 am If you look at battery capacity and life, then a 2024 EV is on a different level than a 2014 one. It is impressive how batteries get denser, and cheaper. A 2011 Leaf has a range of what, 80-90 miles?
The big jump came around 2017-2018, when the Bolt and Model 3 were the first affordable EVs (around $40K) with decent range (about 250 miles). Today's EVs don't have that much more range at that price level.
I'd say its a bit more nuanced than that. I agree on the Bolt and the Model 3 in that time frame, but there were two problems. GM wasn't making money on the Bolt at that price, so it didn't scale the volume of production. And Tesla was making money on the model 3, but it didn't cost $40k in practice, only more expensive models were sold. And as often pointed out, the model 3 was a very bare bones vehicle (with a lot of tech) with a harsh ride, thin paint, etc. Engineered for cost containment.

But today, the price of the model 3 (and model Y) are much lower than they were then (the Y used to cost $60k), and the model 3 has been refreshed to a much higher quality vehicle (better ride, interior materials and soundproofing, among other things), and the Y refresh will be here in 12 mos. And that is before incentives. Both now cost much less than they did in 2020. And the Y is the best selling car on the planet.

And the Bolt is out of production, bc GM was tired of losing money on it. And figured folks would pay $20k more for an Equinox EV.

Entry level EVs do still have the same ~250 mile range as those vehicles, but the batteries in those EVs cost a fraction (and weigh less) than the same range batteries in 2017. And many models have a long range variant that goes 300-350 miles, for those that have more money.

And fast charge speeds on even these entry level models are much higher than that era. Instead of stopping for an hour in a Bolt, or 30 minutes in a model 3, most of these entry level cars now charge in 15-20 minutes. This latter number is MUCH better for road trips, excepting only a few people who insist that they need to have 5-10 minute stops max.

As someone who has been driving EVs since 2014, todays models are hugely more capable, and lower priced, than the badly compromised EVs of 2017.
The Y cost $60K around 2022 because Tesla raised prices to take advantage of an imbalance in supply and demand. The base model launched in 2019 at $40K; more commonly available models were around $50K until the big runup in prices between mid-2021 and late 2022.

There have been incremental improvements in range the last 5-7 years and a lot more choice of models, but no huge jump in range nor huge drop in price unless you compare against the inflated prices of 2022. The biggest advance has been faster DCFC with Porsche's and Hyundai's 800V architecture, but that's still only on a small number of models.
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 5:05 am
02nz wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:36 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:26 am If you look at battery capacity and life, then a 2024 EV is on a different level than a 2014 one. It is impressive how batteries get denser, and cheaper. A 2011 Leaf has a range of what, 80-90 miles?
The big jump came around 2017-2018, when the Bolt and Model 3 were the first affordable EVs (around $40K) with decent range (about 250 miles). Today's EVs don't have that much more range at that price level.
I'd say its a bit more nuanced than that. I agree on the Bolt and the Model 3 in that time frame, but there were two problems. GM wasn't making money on the Bolt at that price, so it didn't scale the volume of production. And Tesla was making money on the model 3, but it didn't cost $40k in practice, only more expensive models were sold. And as often pointed out, the model 3 was a very bare bones vehicle (with a lot of tech) with a harsh ride, thin paint, etc. Engineered for cost containment.

But today, the price of the model 3 (and model Y) are much lower than they were then (the Y used to cost $60k), and the model 3 has been refreshed to a much higher quality vehicle (better ride, interior materials and soundproofing, among other things), and the Y refresh will be here in 12 mos. And that is before incentives. Both now cost much less than they did in 2020. And the Y is the best selling car on the planet.

And the Bolt is out of production, bc GM was tired of losing money on it. And figured folks would pay $20k more for an Equinox EV.

Entry level EVs do still have the same ~250 mile range as those vehicles, but the batteries in those EVs cost a fraction (and weigh less) than the same range batteries in 2017. And many models have a long range variant that goes 300-350 miles, for those that have more money.

And fast charge speeds on even these entry level models are much higher than that era. Instead of stopping for an hour in a Bolt, or 30 minutes in a model 3, most of these entry level cars now charge in 15-20 minutes. This latter number is MUCH better for road trips, excepting only a few people who insist that they need to have 5-10 minute stops max.

As someone who has been driving EVs since 2014, todays models are hugely more capable, and lower priced, than the badly compromised EVs of 2017.
Although Clayton Christensen, the Harvard Business School professor who promulgated the theory of Disruption in "The Innovators Dilemma" and subsequent work, apparently said he did not think the EV was a disruptive innovation,

it sure as heck is behaving like one. Except arguably on the cheaper cost.

Christensen perfectly described BMW : an industry incumbent so good at meeting the demands of existing customers, that it finds it difficult or impossible to "pivot" to a whole new form factor or paradigm. It's not that BMW, or Toyota, are bad car companies. It's that they are very good car companies -- best in class. And BMW and Honda in particular are drivetrain companies, and that's precisely what causes a radical change in EVs.
Toyota has a huge investment and user base in hybrid vehicles.

The computer industry example (he studied disk drive makers) that comes to mind is DEC. Which made great products that its customers loved, but could not pivot as PCs began to eat the minicomputer market. Or Sun Microsystems - great, great workstations. But it thought it was a hardware maker, and hardware got commoditized.

A disruptive innovation emerges, it doesn't mean the needs of existing consumers well. It's inferior. Industry incumbents ignore it. Their customers love them, they meet the needs of their customers very well.

Meanwhile the new innovation finds new types and niches of customers. Nissan Leaf as the 2nd/3rd family car, urban runabout. Tesla as the bare bones sports car with the monster acceleration and a ready market of highly paid California tech-types. Arnold Schwarzenegger bought out of the first Roadsters, I believe.

And then the technology/price/performance of the disruptive innovation starts to eat into the core market of the incumbents. The advantages are enough to offset the disadvantages.

That's more or less where EVs are now. We can find - and posters here do find - any number of reasons why an EV does not work/ does not suit. But we can already see the progression of models that makes those objections less and less important. And, in any case, half of all US car trips are less than 3 miles, and 1/4 less than 1 mile. People don't need range and fast charging as much as they think they do.

This varies by country. Speed of buildout of chargers. Convenience of charging. Americans are actually in an unusually favourable place, because 60%+ of Americans live in homes with parking spots in front or at the side. I live in a row of Victorian terraces and people park on the street. So the local borough has now installed streetlevel charging ports - but that's a significant hassle and expense to get it done.

Interesting piece I saw that, in the US and Canada, apparently Level 1 "Trickle Chargers" would be relatively easy to install in, for example, most condo parking garages or for large rental buildings. And that EV owners are getting used to charging when they can, even if not up to full level. Because I grew up in the lands of engine block warmers, and you plug in your car when you park it in the garage, this seems quite normal to me. (Out West -- the Prairies - even shopping mall parking lots have these).

The US may lag adoption. Australia certainly is and for similar reasons - concerns over distance, politics etc. But on the other hand over 30% of Australian homes have solar PV on their roofs, and so the mating is quite natural.

If you do a lot of camping, then right now EVs won't work well for you.
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just frank
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by just frank »

I am only disagreeing with the sentiment (popular in EV threads recently) that EVs are sadly just not ready for prime time in 2024, and that the tipping point will come in the future due to some tech advancement 'x', or when prices finally reach point 'y'. Or both. And so we should just wait around until someone we trust (Toyota?) tells us its time.

The reality is that, indeed, EVs were not ready for mass adoption for a long time. They were affordable but marginal compliance cars for early adopters, or serviceable but very expensive Tesla models. For more than a decade.

But the tipping point came in 2023. TCO is much lower than ICE cars and has been lower for years. Purchase price for a nice, long-range EV with fast DCFC is comparable to median ICE cars in the market. And lower after incentives.

Where is my evidence? Um, sales have exploded in all three major car markets around the world! Not the decade long climb from 0.5 to 1 to 2% of new sales. But out of nowhere double digit sales percentage and respectable (if linear) continued growth in sales.

Is everyone ready to get on board? Nope. Lots of folks can't (or choose not to) make an EV work for them. Which is how these things go.

But working for every last person is not the tipping point for mass adoption... that is the late stage mopping up of late adopters.
Valuethinker
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:25 am I am only disagreeing with the sentiment (popular in EV threads recently) that EVs are sadly just not ready for prime time in 2024, and that the tipping point will come in the future due to some tech advancement 'x', or when prices finally reach point 'y'. Or both. And so we should just wait around until someone we trust (Toyota?) tells us its time.

The reality is that, indeed, EVs were not ready for mass adoption for a long time. They were affordable but marginal compliance cars for early adopters, or serviceable but very expensive Tesla models. For more than a decade.

But the tipping point came in 2023. TCO is much lower than ICE cars and has been lower for years. Purchase price for a nice, long-range EV with fast DCFC is comparable to median ICE cars in the market. And lower after incentives.
One aspect of TCO is figuring out residual value. And that's been hard, because things are moving quite fast. If new prices fall, then residuals fall.

Very much an American thing "not ready for prime time". I don't think that's a credible view, any longer, in Europe. Canada has a much higher percentage sale of EVs. Despite them being minimal in the Prairie provinces -- the problem of range in the extreme cold is certainly a factor there, plus Alberta and Saskatchewan are petro-states. And in Ontario, the largest province sales are only a limited percentage (the automotive industry is large in the Ontario economy). Quebec - which is plenty cold in winter - and British Columbia are leading the charge (BC is very mild on the coast, but plenty cold in the mountains).

Both Germany and the UK are seeing double digit percentages of new car sales. Germany, the home of performance ICE cars. Italy and France are lagging but the French make some good EV models, so that may change. (Norway, yes, but it's a tiny country in population, if not in size. Just proof that EVs work in a Scandinavian climate).

Japan is definitely lagging - apparently the auto manufacturers, heavily invested in hybrids, have lobbied against them. Australia is also low penetration, but if the highway superchargers get built I would imagine they could see very fast uptake. More than 30% of Australian homes have solar PV panels.
Where is my evidence? Um, sales have exploded in all three major car markets around the world! Not the decade long climb from 0.5 to 1 to 2% of new sales. But out of nowhere double digit sales percentage and respectable (if linear) continued growth in sales.
It is definitely happening. Once I would notice a week in London where I saw a Tesla. I now see several a day. Despite all the problems with on-street charging, there are a couple parked on my road (150-200 houses, Victorian row houses, street parking only). They have now installed pavement (sidewalk) level chargers, but until now there were just a couple of lamp post chargers.

Various incentives drive it - your road tax (annual car fee) is scaled to your emissions, and particularly for company cars EVs are favoured -- that could save you £1k pa or so. Also you don't pay the London Congestion Charge (£12.50 per weekday if driving into the central district). I have ridden in a Tesla taxi (minicab ie not the London black cabs) and a couple of MG Rover (bankrupt British brand from 1960s, now owned by Shanghai Automotive) taxis.
Is everyone ready to get on board? Nope. Lots of folks can't (or choose not to) make an EV work for them. Which is how these things go.

But working for every last person is not the tipping point for mass adoption... that is the late stage mopping up of late adopters.

Agreed.
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Wwwdotcom
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

just frank wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:18 pm
The point here is that ICE cars (at least at the low end) are a low-margin low-profit business. Hard to innovate in such an enterprise.

EVs have a lot fewer moving parts, and parts in total than an ICE car. So engineering analyses suggest that the _manufacturing_ price of an EV should reach a level below half that of a similar ICE car. So, unless some anti-capitalist process exists that allows EV builders to command 100% profit on all their wares (which could happen, I suppose) then we should see sales prices fall.

The cost of a used car is a reflection of its value. The cost of a new car is given my the manufacturing cost plus profit. And of course, the value of the used car is measured by the new car it competes with. EVs should push down the whole market, eventually.
I agree on all of the points mentioned above. Now putting this into practice using a $15k (before tax credits) 2020 used Bolt as an example. In 15 years, do people really expect that 4 year old EVs (with range of 200+ miles) to be priced much lower than $7.5k (inflation adjusted) in the USA? In a free-trade society, I have no doubt that this would happen. In the USA I'm not so sure.
cmr79
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by cmr79 »

Wwwdotcom wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:40 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:18 pm
The point here is that ICE cars (at least at the low end) are a low-margin low-profit business. Hard to innovate in such an enterprise.

EVs have a lot fewer moving parts, and parts in total than an ICE car. So engineering analyses suggest that the _manufacturing_ price of an EV should reach a level below half that of a similar ICE car. So, unless some anti-capitalist process exists that allows EV builders to command 100% profit on all their wares (which could happen, I suppose) then we should see sales prices fall.

The cost of a used car is a reflection of its value. The cost of a new car is given my the manufacturing cost plus profit. And of course, the value of the used car is measured by the new car it competes with. EVs should push down the whole market, eventually.
I agree on all of the points mentioned above. Now putting this into practice using a $15k (before tax credits) 2020 used Bolt as an example. In 15 years, do people really expect that 4 year old EVs (with range of 200+ miles) to be priced much lower than $7.5k (inflation adjusted) in the USA? In a free-trade society, I have no doubt that this would happen. In the USA I'm not so sure.
Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you mean, but where are you getting the $7500 figure? The federal tax credit for used EVs is $4000, not the $7500 that new vehicles can qualify for, so a $15k before tax credit Bolt would be $11k after the credit.
YoungSisyphus
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by YoungSisyphus »

I like my old Chevy Volt. I have about 85k miles on it, and it has never had an issue. Plus, I like that it gets about 40 miles on battery and then can operate on gas. I am sure you could get one inexpensively now, and it would fit your use case of shorter city driving but also have the ability for longer trips.

Edit: The one thing I would point out, whichever way you go, is that working on an EV can limit who can work on them. I'm most concerned about long-term care and finding service for these vehicles.
Last edited by YoungSisyphus on Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
musicandarts
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by musicandarts »

I am in the market for a used EV with a 200-250 miles range. But I was looking for a different segment as this is not my first rodeo in the EV world. We have been early adopters for both hybrids and EVs. Our target was a certified preowned from 2021 or 2022. My other car is a 2022 Kia EV6, and I am very happy with it.

If you are looking for a used cheap EV with 200-250 miles, you are going to limit yourselves to Leaf Plus versions. You may get a Tesla that is ten years old, but do you want to take that on without any warranty.

I found another 2022 Kia EV6 Wind AWD for$36k with 15k miles with the range of 274 miles. I understand this won't fit your requirements, but the certified preowned with warranty till 120k miles is a big selling point for us.
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Wwwdotcom
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

cmr79 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:11 pm
Wwwdotcom wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:40 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Feb 15, 2024 1:18 pm
The point here is that ICE cars (at least at the low end) are a low-margin low-profit business. Hard to innovate in such an enterprise.

EVs have a lot fewer moving parts, and parts in total than an ICE car. So engineering analyses suggest that the _manufacturing_ price of an EV should reach a level below half that of a similar ICE car. So, unless some anti-capitalist process exists that allows EV builders to command 100% profit on all their wares (which could happen, I suppose) then we should see sales prices fall.

The cost of a used car is a reflection of its value. The cost of a new car is given my the manufacturing cost plus profit. And of course, the value of the used car is measured by the new car it competes with. EVs should push down the whole market, eventually.
I agree on all of the points mentioned above. Now putting this into practice using a $15k (before tax credits) 2020 used Bolt as an example. In 15 years, do people really expect that 4 year old EVs (with range of 200+ miles) to be priced much lower than $7.5k (inflation adjusted) in the USA? In a free-trade society, I have no doubt that this would happen. In the USA I'm not so sure.
Maybe I'm misinterpreting what you mean, but where are you getting the $7500 figure? The federal tax credit for used EVs is $4000, not the $7500 that new vehicles can qualify for, so a $15k before tax credit Bolt would be $11k after the credit.
I skipped a few steps here... There is nothing magical about $7500 other than its 1/2 of $15000 (the price of a 2020 certified used bolt before rebate). I use this number to quantify a conservative boundary for obsolesce due to the marketplace reduction in prices over time. Unless 4 year old certified used EVs in 2039 with a range of 200+ miles are being sold for less than $7500, the price reduction curve / obsolescence rates for EVs won't be remotely close to PCs. Obviously, there is a lot of nuance with the rebate policies, but I think my numbers are conservative enough, the rebate issue can be ignored.
oxothuk
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by oxothuk »

Since EV sales have cooled off recently, you may also may want to look at lease deals on NEW EVs. My local dealer is offering a 2 year lease on a new Nissan Leaf SV+ for $149/ month.

It’s a pretty good way to get a cheap ride and buy some time while waiting for the next EV technology generation to arrive.
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Wwwdotcom
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Re: Thoughts on buying cheap, used, "intermediate" range EV?

Post by Wwwdotcom »

musicandarts wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 4:15 pm I am in the market for a used EV with a 200-250 miles range. But I was looking for a different segment as this is not my first rodeo in the EV world. We have been early adopters for both hybrids and EVs. Our target was a certified preowned from 2021 or 2022. My other car is a 2022 Kia EV6, and I am very happy with it.

If you are looking for a used cheap EV with 200-250 miles, you are going to limit yourselves to Leaf Plus versions. You may get a Tesla that is ten years old, but do you want to take that on without any warranty.

I found another 2022 Kia EV6 Wind AWD for$36k with 15k miles with the range of 274 miles. I understand this won't fit your requirements, but the certified preowned with warranty till 120k miles is a big selling point for us.
Thanks. I definitely overlooked the idea of searching across all the certified pre-owned databases (kia, Hyundai, Ford, gm, Nissan, etc). It provides a good feel of national pricing and warranties for used EVs.
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