Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

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jplee3
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Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:15 pm

Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jplee3 »

Hey guys


Thoughts on 10-20yr 'savings' buying a Tesla with the current multiple tax credits/savings (I'm in CA) vs buying a used ICE vehicle? My wife and I currently WFH but she will be going into the office part-time soon. The office is only a few miles away though. Most of our weekly activities are local and most time is spent driving the kids to/from school and to their activities. Otherwise we don't drive outside of our area that much.

Currently we have an '08 Mazda cx9 (107k miles) and '09 rav4 (135-140k miles). There are some concerns with the Mazda as this model is susceptible to a potential water pump failure that would result in engine failure (there is info on this on Google and a lawsuit was filed but dismissed). So the first car I think I want to transition off is the Mazda. I'd want to get something that's at least the same size but preferably bigger as our rav4. I've thought about a Toyota sienna or larger SUV like a Highlander, 4runner or even newer rav4 but I feel like even used prices on Toyotas are still pretty high...
jmw
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jmw »

jplee3 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:00 pm Hey guys


Thoughts on 10-20yr savings buying a Tesla with the current multiple tax credits/savings (I'm in CA) vs buying a used ICE vehicle? My wife and I currently WFH but she will be going into the office part-time soon. The office is only a few miles away though. Most of our weekly activities are local and most time is spent driving the kids to/from school and to their activities. Otherwise we don't drive outside of our area that much.

Currently we have an '08 Mazda cx9 (107k miles) and '09 rav4 (135-140k miles). There are some concerns with the Mazda as this model is susceptible to a potential water pump failure that would result in engine failure (there is info on this on Google and a lawsuit was filed but dismissed). So the first car I think I want to transition off is the Mazda. I'd want to get something that's at least the same size but preferably bigger as our rav4. I've thought about a Toyota sienna or larger SUV like a Highlander, 4runner or even newer rav4 but I feel like even used prices on Toyotas are still pretty high...
Are you looking for an excuse to buy a new Tesla? Every new Tesla buyer before you has suffered a massive hit on depreciation due to price decreases. Having real cash leave your wallet and get lit on fire from depreciation stinks. You should be comparing with a used EV like an old Nissan Leaf (avoid any 2011 or 2012 regardless of bars/miles, avoid 2013+ with less than 8 bars) that can be picked up for around $5k especially with a short commute. You can even get a used rebate from your utility and more from your state and the IRS for that $5k Nissan Leaf and get it for free if your household income is low enough.

I would have one ICE vehicle and one EV if there are two drivers. So I'd keep the RAV4 at 140k miles if it didn't have deferred maintenance. I don't know much about the CX9 and maybe you need to replace the water pump anyway with another service like timing belt? I agree replacement cars except for the disposable and cheap Nissan Leaf above are too expensive nowadays to ignore reliability. I would be trying to sell and get rid of unreliable cars if necessary. So going with Toyota may be a good move despite the premium cost over something like a Stellantis equivalent.
Yarlonkol12
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Yarlonkol12 »

I think it depends on the used car you are buying.

Personally I don't see the point in buying used with brands like Honda or Toyota (applies to others as well) as they don't deprecate enough in value to be worth it. My expectation of a used car price is that I pay 50-60% less than MSRP of the new vehicle price if I buy a 3-4 year old car, which isn't happening with those brands, a 10 year old Honda or Toyota might be only 20-30% less than new. No thanks, I'll just stick with buying new in those cases
My posts are for entertainment purposes only.
Jack FFR1846
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
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bligh
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by bligh »

You have to do the math really.

There are five inputs in to the equation.

1) Cost of gas in your area and your expectation of the average price of gas over say the next 10 years. (You mentioned you are in Cali. There is a reason the Tesla Model 3 is referred to as the California Camry.)
2) Cost of electricity for you and your expectation of the average cost of electricity. (Do you have cheap electricity, or solar?)
3) How many miles do you expect to drive annually.
4) Additional costs associated with driving a more expensive car. (eg insurance & registration)
5) Estimated savings on routine maintenance (oil changes, services, transmission fluid flushes, etc.)

When it was time for me to buy a new car, I plugged in the numbers into a spreadsheet and found that for my combination of electricity cost, miles driven, cost of gasoline, and additional cost of registration/insurance for a more expensive car, I was coming out ahead by about $2,500 / year. (depending on how you wanted to fiddle with the numbers). So far my numbers have proven to be conservative, because the way gas prices have been going I am actually closer to $3,500/yr in savings (and this is net of additional insurance/. I will add that I am lucky to have relatively cheap electricity on a time of use plan, where I charge over night.

Multiply those annual savings by 10 years over an ICE car. Then I subtracted the savings from the cost of the car. So for example, if the Tesla I was going to buy was $50K, I subtracted $25K from it, and started looking at what kind of ICE car I would get for $25K, because, financially over the next 10 years these choices were equivalent. I realized I would much rather drive the Tesla over the next 10 years compared to the equivalent costing ICE alternative. I do not consider myself a Tesla fanboy, I do have serious concerns about the build quality, and dislike some of their practices around pricing/subscriptions. So bear in mind, the above Math applies to any EV, not just Teslas.

So far, I have been happy with my process, and if anything the numbers have been more favorable than I had estimated. The price of Teslas has dropped significantly since I bought mine, and if they were a no brainer for me then, they are an absolute steal now. My next car may or may not be a Tesla, but it will definitely be an EV. It's a great experience saving time not having to go to the gas station and having a full tank of "gas" every morning. It is a great experience saving money on running/fuel costs. They are a pleasure to drive.

Your mileage may vary (pun intended).
cmr79
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by cmr79 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
Using average CA regular gas prices of $5.58/gal and average CA electricity prices of $0.31/kWh, the Tesla costs about half as much per mile. Results are probably comparable in most of the US outside of the greater Boston area as electricity costs and gas costs tend to be correlated.
Tesla M3: $0.0775/mile
Your Subaru: $0.159/mile

I still don't think that fuel costs should be a major determining factor for EV vs ICE decisions. It isn't a major cost for most drivers (maybe $1000/year if exclusively charging at home, on average), and it relies too much on speculation about future gas and electricity prices.
bendix
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by bendix »

jplee3 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:00 pm Hey guys


Thoughts on 10-20yr 'savings' buying a Tesla with the current multiple tax credits/savings (I'm in CA) vs buying a used ICE vehicle? My wife and I currently WFH but she will be going into the office part-time soon. The office is only a few miles away though. Most of our weekly activities are local and most time is spent driving the kids to/from school and to their activities. Otherwise we don't drive outside of our area that much.

Currently we have an '08 Mazda cx9 (107k miles) and '09 rav4 (135-140k miles). There are some concerns with the Mazda as this model is susceptible to a potential water pump failure that would result in engine failure (there is info on this on Google and a lawsuit was filed but dismissed). So the first car I think I want to transition off is the Mazda. I'd want to get something that's at least the same size but preferably bigger as our rav4. I've thought about a Toyota sienna or larger SUV like a Highlander, 4runner or even newer rav4 but I feel like even used prices on Toyotas are still pretty high...
Are you asking what the savings would be, assuming a Tesla would last for 10 to 20 years? If you want a Tesla, buy one. Dont fool yourself by thinking you could realistically forecast gas prices or the reliability of a notoriously poorly manufactured car.
DoubleComma
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by DoubleComma »

20 years is a exceptionally long time, first mass production Tesla was 2012…11 years ago. Hard to say if any car bought today, ICE or EV, will have a reasonable chance of being in the road 20 years from now without some major repair which can’t be forecasted and totally messes with your analysis.

Buy the car you want, don’t get so hung up on the math.
smitcat
Posts: 11861
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by smitcat »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
Try this chart to get accurate residential electric costs per state...
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly ... epmt_5_6_a
CloseEnough
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by CloseEnough »

cmr79 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 2:00 pm
I still don't think that fuel costs should be a major determining factor for EV vs ICE decisions. It isn't a major cost for most drivers (maybe $1000/year if exclusively charging at home, on average), and it relies too much on speculation about future gas and electricity prices.
I agree. The factors beyond fuel costs include the other substantial tangible costs when comparing EV vs. ICE and, of course, the intangible subjective factors in any car purchase.
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lthenderson
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by lthenderson »

jplee3 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:00 pm The office is only a few miles away though.

I'd want to get something that's at least the same size but preferably bigger as our rav4.
If you can get one, a great compromise might be the RAV4 Prime which has a 40 mile range on all battery use but then switches over to hybrid mode for longer trips. We tried to get one for nearly a year but finally gave up and just went with the hybrid only model. The Prime would have been nice because my spouse's commute is only 10 miles a day so for the bulk of it's use, we could have used it as an all electric vehicle.
JDave
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by JDave »

Buying any new car will not save money over used alternatives.
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ClevrChico
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by ClevrChico »

If you're concerned about the water pump, pay an independent a few hundred dollars to replace it. It's really a wear item anyway, so not a big deal. Your existing cars likely have lots of life left in them, especially with a part-time commute. I can't see any savings in buying a different car.
MishkaWorries
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by MishkaWorries »

How about door number 3? Buy a used EV or plug-in for federal tax rebate up to $4,000.
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cmr79
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by cmr79 »

JDave wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:11 am Buying any new car will not save money over used alternatives.
While this is generally true, buyers of EVs and PHEVs face a warped environment due to federal, state and local tax incentives. For example, there are many reports of California residents in certain areas with local tax rebates and lower income levels being able to buy a new Model 3 for $15-20k, which is lower than essentially any non-wrecked used Model 3.
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jackrabbit
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jackrabbit »

MishkaWorries wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:47 am How about door number 3? Buy a used EV or plug-in for federal tax rebate up to $4,000.
Buying used - good idea (I would if I were in the market for another auto).

Verify the rebate terms if you are counting on that. My reading of [Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit][https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i8936] (US IRS Form 8936) is that it applies to new vehicles only.

Cheers-
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uaeebs86
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by uaeebs86 »

jackrabbit wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:47 am
MishkaWorries wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:47 am How about door number 3? Buy a used EV or plug-in for federal tax rebate up to $4,000.
Buying used - good idea (I would if I were in the market for another auto).

Verify the rebate terms if you are counting on that. My reading of [Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit][https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i8936] (US IRS Form 8936) is that it applies to new vehicles only.

Cheers-
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/ ... cle-credit
"Things work out best for those who make the best of the way things work out." ― John Wooden
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jackrabbit
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jackrabbit »

Thank you. Now I am reading more. Some used EV can qualify for a tax break:
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxused ... quirements
Wwwdotcom
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Wwwdotcom »

This is obviously not about "cost savings". Both cars are running fine and they haven't hit the 20 year or 200k mile mark. Just get the car you want. With the information provided, I can't imagine a reasonable rationale why you would buy a used car.
EnjoyIt
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by EnjoyIt »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
smitcat
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by smitcat »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:49 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
I do not believe that it is - per the chart I attached the cost is like 27 cents per KWH.
And when I checked 'gasbuddy' for that shell station in Hoptinkon yesterday the cost for gasoline was $3.63 gal.
cmr79
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by cmr79 »

smitcat wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:05 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:49 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
I do not believe that it is - per the chart I attached the cost is like 27 cents per KWH.
And when I checked 'gasbuddy' for that shell station in Hoptinkon yesterday the cost for gasoline was $3.63 gal.
I am sure JackFFR's numbers are correct for him. It is just a pretty substantial outlier case, as his region (greater Boston area) has expensive electricity due to natural gas bottleneck issues, generally has average or below average gasoline prices, and he in particular has limited electricity supplier choice options and can't install solar...or at least I recall as much from prior discussions, of which we have had several on this topic.

I've not been able to find any other region that has significantly above-average electricity and below-average gas prices, though I'm sure that there are individuals locked into poor electricity pricing structures for whom this also applies.
02nz
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by 02nz »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:49 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
The post you quoted is an extreme case though - very expensive electricity and very cheap gas. Most other places in the country, energy prices are more correlated.

I'm in Southern California. I pay 23-26 cents/KWhr to charge overnight, versus a current average gas price of about $5.60. My EV's electricity costs about 1/3 of what it would take to fuel a same-sized ICE car.
smitcat
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by smitcat »

cmr79 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:01 pm
smitcat wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:05 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:49 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
I do not believe that it is - per the chart I attached the cost is like 27 cents per KWH.
And when I checked 'gasbuddy' for that shell station in Hoptinkon yesterday the cost for gasoline was $3.63 gal.
I am sure JackFFR's numbers are correct for him. It is just a pretty substantial outlier case, as his region (greater Boston area) has expensive electricity due to natural gas bottleneck issues, generally has average or below average gasoline prices, and he in particular has limited electricity supplier choice options and can't install solar...or at least I recall as much from prior discussions, of which we have had several on this topic.

I've not been able to find any other region that has significantly above-average electricity and below-average gas prices, though I'm sure that there are individuals locked into poor electricity pricing structures for whom this also applies.
Perhaps this chart will help ....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APUS11A72610

If anyone actually knew they would be paying 45 cents per KWH and/or more consistently into the future, would they not utilize solar for both home and auto?
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quantAndHold
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by quantAndHold »

cmr79 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:18 am
JDave wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:11 am Buying any new car will not save money over used alternatives.
While this is generally true, buyers of EVs and PHEVs face a warped environment due to federal, state and local tax incentives. For example, there are many reports of California residents in certain areas with local tax rebates and lower income levels being able to buy a new Model 3 for $15-20k, which is lower than essentially any non-wrecked used Model 3.
We just bought a new Chevy Bolt in CA. Paid MSRP for a fully loaded car. After all the incentives, it’ll be $19k. There was no real point in looking at used cars.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by cmr79 »

smitcat wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 3:06 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 2:01 pm
smitcat wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 1:05 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 12:49 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:38 pm I see this as an easy math problem, but you do want to be thorough with your equations.

For both new-to-you vehicles:
Cost to buy after all incentives.
Cost for tax, registration, inspection, title.
Annual insurance (don't assume, go to one of the online sites and check both vehicles you'd consider)

Now the fun stuff. Cost per mile for fuel. Don't just assume that the Tesla ads telling you how much you save are even remotely true.

For the Tesla.
kWh per mile is about 0.25 for the most efficient Tesla.
What is your total cost per kWh for electricity. Take a recent bill. Divide the total you paid by the number of kWh used.
kWh/mi * $/kWh = $ per mile.

For whatever ICE car you're considering:
Cost per gallon of gas.
Miles per gallon.
($/gallon)/(miles/gallon) = $ per mile

I'll show you why I say that you can't take Tesla's word for it on the cost per mile savings using my own circumstances as an example.
Tesla
0.25 kWh per mile
45.5 cents per kWh (Eversource)
.25 * .455 = 11.375 cents per mile

My own 2019 Subaru Crosstrek manual.
35 mpg (measured many times)
$3.55 per gallon (last week, Shell Hopkinton, MA)
3.55/35 = 10.14 cents per mile

I know California is known for outrageous gas prices. I expect you'll find a Tesla to be more efficient than some mini van for sure. But do all of the math problems and total up what your initial cost is, what your annual expenses are and your cost per mile times expected miles driven and you can find your own answer on a cost basis.
wow, I had no idea electricity can be so expensive.

It actually makes the Tesla more expensive to drive.
I do not believe that it is - per the chart I attached the cost is like 27 cents per KWH.
And when I checked 'gasbuddy' for that shell station in Hoptinkon yesterday the cost for gasoline was $3.63 gal.
I am sure JackFFR's numbers are correct for him. It is just a pretty substantial outlier case, as his region (greater Boston area) has expensive electricity due to natural gas bottleneck issues, generally has average or below average gasoline prices, and he in particular has limited electricity supplier choice options and can't install solar...or at least I recall as much from prior discussions, of which we have had several on this topic.

I've not been able to find any other region that has significantly above-average electricity and below-average gas prices, though I'm sure that there are individuals locked into poor electricity pricing structures for whom this also applies.
Perhaps this chart will help ....
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APUS11A72610

If anyone actually knew they would be paying 45 cents per KWH and/or more consistently into the future, would they not utilize solar for both home and auto?
I pointed out that he has said that he can't install solar in the post to which you replied.
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jplee3
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jplee3 »

Wow, thanks all...

I have quite a few friends who keep pushing Tesla and touting it, which is why I'm curious. I don't know what the deal is in terms of Tesla vs "other EVs" but a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?

We just put solar up back in November and got in under NEM 2 which is great and all, except pretty soon I think we may be subject to tiered electric plans in which not only are we billed on our usage but we are billed according to our income levels (so basically low-income families pay less and higher-income families pay more) :T This is likely going to put a huge dent in the ROI of the solar system or flat out nullify it (which is definitely pissing a lot of people off who rushed to get in before NEM 3... actually, I hear NEM 3 may have been pushed out/delayed but haven't followed the news on that). In any case, the bottom line is that our electric rates may end up not being as "cheap" as we thought they would be after putting solar up. I oversized the system to accommodate for a potential EV in the future. But if we're going to get billed based on income level, it seems a lot of the benefits of solar are going to be tossed out the window.

Gas is insane here in SoCal. But even $30-40k is a lot to spend on a new car, period... regardless of whether it's a Corolla, Camry, or Tesla (and regardless of if you "might as well buy a Tesla if you were going to buy a Corolla) and whether or not there are tax credits. I guess I'll have to run the numbers but it seems like it would likely make more sense just to run our cars into the ground. Well, for the Mazda I'm iffy - the problem with the water pump cannot simply be solved by replacing the water pump per my understanding. The way they designed it is such that even pre-emptively replacing the water pump comes at a great cost. Someone else already posted it more concisely than I would be able to:

"It's the Ford v6 that Mazda used to use that it's the problem. The way Ford designed it, the engine needs to either come out or be substantially taken apart to replace the pump. Basically if the pump fails it destroys the engine at great expense to the owner. If you're going to go ahead with the preemptive maintenance, be sure you're confident in the shop that's telling you to do so. It's an expensive repair and by now a 2012 vehicle won't be worth much more than the repair should the engine fail with the pump. It won't really be worth much more than the preemptive repair, either. This is partially why this is such a big issue for owners of these vehicles - not only is it massively expensive, but you're basically put on the spot to decide whether you get a new car or repair it."

Some of you mentioned you wouldn't bother buying used Hondas or Toyotas because of the lack of depreciation. If that's the case, what brands and models would you be looking at? We may be considering a minivan or large SUV. I would want something with a reliable track record and something where I'm not going to be dealing with having to bring it into a mechanic every few months. I would imagine Hondas and Toyotas don't depreciate as much because they are more reliable over all, no? Sorta seems like a "have your cake and eat it too" kind of a thing...

All this to say, right now I think I need to make a decision on our CX9 and what to do about it. Ideally I'd like to sell it and replace it with something. I guess the big question is what am I going to replace it with. A used Nissan Leaf with the rebate sounds nice but that's a small car and I'm ultimately looking for a replacement that's the same size or larger as the CX9. In fact, I think for both our cars, we would ideally want to replace them with equivalent sized cars. Rav4 Prime is nice but they are $$$$$. Unless prices drop anytime soon (not so sure about this) that seems like a lot to buy into. The space in the CX9 is nice and we pretty much only take that car on longer road trips these days - you can just fit a lot more back there. I want to do more road-tripping eventually too, and wouldn't be confident in putting those kinds of miles on the Rav4 (and the smaller cargo space would definitely put a damper on things)
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by rob »

jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pmbut a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?
No.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
MH2
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by MH2 »

rob wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:15 pm
jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pmbut a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?
No.
Maybe.

Mercedes, BMW, and arguably VW make ‘nicer’ EVs. I don’t know if I trust them yet, though.

Tesla’s real competition is SAIC/BYD/Greely.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Valuethinker »

jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pm Wow, thanks all...

I have quite a few friends who keep pushing Tesla and touting it, which is why I'm curious. I don't know what the deal is in terms of Tesla vs "other EVs" but a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?

We just put solar up back in November and got in under NEM 2 which is great and all, except pretty soon I think we may be subject to tiered electric plans in which not only are we billed on our usage but we are billed according to our income levels (so basically low-income families pay less and higher-income families pay more) :T This is likely going to put a huge dent in the ROI of the solar system or flat out nullify it (which is definitely pissing a lot of people off who rushed to get in before NEM 3... actually, I hear NEM 3 may have been pushed out/delayed but haven't followed the news on that). In any case, the bottom line is that our electric rates may end up not being as "cheap" as we thought they would be after putting solar up. I oversized the system to accommodate for a potential EV in the future. But if we're going to get billed based on income level, it seems a lot of the benefits of solar are going to be tossed out the window.

Gas is insane here in SoCal. But even $30-40k is a lot to spend on a new car, period... regardless of whether it's a Corolla, Camry, or Tesla (and regardless of if you "might as well buy a Tesla if you were going to buy a Corolla) and whether or not there are tax credits. I guess I'll have to run the numbers but it seems like it would likely make more sense just to run our cars into the ground. Well, for the Mazda I'm iffy - the problem with the water pump cannot simply be solved by replacing the water pump per my understanding. The way they designed it is such that even pre-emptively replacing the water pump comes at a great cost. Someone else already posted it more concisely than I would be able to:

"It's the Ford v6 that Mazda used to use that it's the problem. The way Ford designed it, the engine needs to either come out or be substantially taken apart to replace the pump. Basically if the pump fails it destroys the engine at great expense to the owner. If you're going to go ahead with the preemptive maintenance, be sure you're confident in the shop that's telling you to do so. It's an expensive repair and by now a 2012 vehicle won't be worth much more than the repair should the engine fail with the pump. It won't really be worth much more than the preemptive repair, either. This is partially why this is such a big issue for owners of these vehicles - not only is it massively expensive, but you're basically put on the spot to decide whether you get a new car or repair it."

Some of you mentioned you wouldn't bother buying used Hondas or Toyotas because of the lack of depreciation. If that's the case, what brands and models would you be looking at? We may be considering a minivan or large SUV. I would want something with a reliable track record and something where I'm not going to be dealing with having to bring it into a mechanic every few months. I would imagine Hondas and Toyotas don't depreciate as much because they are more reliable over all, no? Sorta seems like a "have your cake and eat it too" kind of a thing...
It's been the case for a number of years (from reports on this Forum) that 2-3 year old Hondas and Toyotas are so close to the new cars on price that there's not much point in not buying new. In addition, since the pandemic there have been huge supply issues (pandemic, lockdowns in China, chip supply issues) for Hondas and Toyotas (and all cars to an extent) which has led to there being a real deficit in 1-3 year old vehicles. That deficit will sit permanently in the market - cars in that age bracket will always look "overvalued" (ie when those cars are 5-7 years old). And it means that cars *older* than that, now, are also going to have somewhat inflated prices (people cannot find the 2 or 3 year old one, so they buy the 4 or 5 year old one).

In addition due to higher prices and higher interest rates, many people cannot afford new cars. So they buy used.

I understand car supply issues are easing and prices are coming down. But there's a lot of suppressed demand for popular Toyota models-- I think Toyota was "losing" over 1m cars pa sales (worldwide) because they could not meet demand.

Hyundai and Kia would be my "go to" outside Honda and Toyota. But I don't know how reliable they will be - depends on the model and year I expect?

Given inflation I would not expect new cars to get a lot cheaper. The price of *everything* in a car has gone up.
All this to say, right now I think I need to make a decision on our CX9 and what to do about it. Ideally I'd like to sell it and replace it with something. I guess the big question is what am I going to replace it with. A used Nissan Leaf with the rebate sounds nice but that's a small car and I'm ultimately looking for a replacement that's the same size or larger as the CX9. In fact, I think for both our cars, we would ideally want to replace them with equivalent sized cars. Rav4 Prime is nice but they are $$$$$. Unless prices drop anytime soon (not so sure about this) that seems like a lot to buy into. The space in the CX9 is nice and we pretty much only take that car on longer road trips these days - you can just fit a lot more back there. I want to do more road-tripping eventually too, and wouldn't be confident in putting those kinds of miles on the Rav4 (and the smaller cargo space would definitely put a damper on things)
A Tesla doesn't sound like it will solve these problems?

My concern with a used Tesla is there are known problems with: maintenance network, spare parts (they don't keep the inventories in the channel that conventional carmakers do - they use them all for new cars), design of car (body panels in particular - prang that and you can't really replace it?), quality control (caused Consumer Reports to switch from top recommended car to Not Recommended). It's too new a car and a concept (in volume sales) to have a really good feel for its eventual used car market.

I wouldn't bet on a large price drop in vehicles. Some manufacturers (Stellantis?) do seem to have oversupply.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by B4Xt3r »

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just frank
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by just frank »

jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pm Wow, thanks all...

I have quite a few friends who keep pushing Tesla and touting it, which is why I'm curious. I don't know what the deal is in terms of Tesla vs "other EVs" but a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?
No. Tesla as an EV startup has had to maintain positive margins on every vehicle sold since the beginning, and made quite a few janky engineering choices in the early years (mostly the hand-built battery pack design). They are way ahead of the curve driving down production costs per EV, but that innovation also leads to build quality issues. The bottom line being that they need to make profit or die. And whenever they can, they have had large (Apple-like) margins in price, with luxury vehicles.

The legacy makers have been making both good and bad EVs for as long as Tesla (the Nissan LEAF and Model S launched the same year), but they have made them in smaller volumes and sold them at a loss. Their build quality has been excellent (bc the makers know how to make cars) but the drivetrains have often been iffy.

Meanwhile the price of battery packs has fallen by a factor of almost 10 over the last decade.

In other words, the whole EV situation is completely different than the very mature automobile market that came before... prices and costs are rapidly moving targets, innovation is everywhere, performance is growing rapidly... its more like desktop computers in the mid 90s.

Buying an EV to drive for 20 years is like saying you are gonna buy a 90s desktop and use it for 10 years. Why?

So buying a used Tesla bc a lot of your friends bought Teslas is not a sound approach. Those guys obviously have selection bias, having all bought Teslas.

I've owned 4 EVs over the last 9 years, and none were Teslas. I have enjoyed all of them, and still own 2 of them.

You need to test drive some EVs. Have your Tesla bro friends let you drive theirs. Or rent on on Truro for a couple days. See if you like it.

Then go to some dealerships and test drive legacy company EVs.

You have two biases to work against... First, you own a Mazda and a Toyota. The Japanese makers are making the worst and fewest EVs in the world right now. Second, you are drawn to larger vehicles, and right now larger EVs have a huge price premium attached and much more limited selection.

Your use case is good, you are a 2 car family, so keep one ICE car for long road trips, and use the EV for commuting, and short road trips (<300 miles).

I would look at the Chevy Bolt ahead of the LEAF, the prices used will be higher, but that is a reflection of their much better useability. I would avoid the LEAF, even newer ones in the warm CA climate, ad the battery has not active thermal control, and thus has shorter life.

Also, many EV batteries should and will last 10 years or more, but I would conservatively assume that I would start to get anstsy about battery life around year 10. So, if you buy new, not a problem. But if you bought an 8 year old EV, assume you wouldn't keep it past 2 years, etc.

There is so much to learn with EVs, and the tech is evolving so fast, assume that the first one you get you will enjoy for a few years, and then replace with something much better. For this reason, I have bought cheaper EVs over the years, often leasing them, and gotten newer/better ones after a few years.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by harikaried »

jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pma lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner
Tesla does sell a lot of vehicles according to California New Car Dealers Association 2023 Q2 report (pdf). There were 69k Tesla new registrations in the last quarter surpassing Toyota's 67k. But those correspond to 15% and 14% overall market share (for ICE and EV) of 475k registrations. EVs only had 104k registrations, so Tesla was 66% of that.
Angel of Empire
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Angel of Empire »

Teslas are a boondoggle.

EV fanboys talk save, save, save but if you listen carefully they're really saying spend, spend, spend.
Valuethinker
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:07 am
jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pm Wow, thanks all...

I have quite a few friends who keep pushing Tesla and touting it, which is why I'm curious. I don't know what the deal is in terms of Tesla vs "other EVs" but a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?
No. Tesla as an EV startup has had to maintain positive margins on every vehicle sold since the beginning, and made quite a few janky engineering choices in the early years (mostly the hand-built battery pack design). They are way ahead of the curve driving down production costs per EV, but that innovation also leads to build quality issues. The bottom line being that they need to make profit or die. And whenever they can, they have had large (Apple-like) margins in price, with luxury vehicles.

The legacy makers have been making both good and bad EVs for as long as Tesla (the Nissan LEAF and Model S launched the same year), but they have made them in smaller volumes and sold them at a loss. Their build quality has been excellent (bc the makers know how to make cars) but the drivetrains have often been iffy.

Meanwhile the price of battery packs has fallen by a factor of almost 10 over the last decade.

In other words, the whole EV situation is completely different than the very mature automobile market that came before... prices and costs are rapidly moving targets, innovation is everywhere, performance is growing rapidly... its more like desktop computers in the mid 90s.

Buying an EV to drive for 20 years is like saying you are gonna buy a 90s desktop and use it for 10 years. Why?

So buying a used Tesla bc a lot of your friends bought Teslas is not a sound approach. Those guys obviously have selection bias, having all bought Teslas.

I've owned 4 EVs over the last 9 years, and none were Teslas. I have enjoyed all of them, and still own 2 of them.

You need to test drive some EVs. Have your Tesla bro friends let you drive theirs. Or rent on on Truro for a couple days. See if you like it.

Then go to some dealerships and test drive legacy company EVs.

You have two biases to work against... First, you own a Mazda and a Toyota. The Japanese makers are making the worst and fewest EVs in the world right now. Second, you are drawn to larger vehicles, and right now larger EVs have a huge price premium attached and much more limited selection.

Your use case is good, you are a 2 car family, so keep one ICE car for long road trips, and use the EV for commuting, and short road trips (<300 miles).

I would look at the Chevy Bolt ahead of the LEAF, the prices used will be higher, but that is a reflection of their much better useability. I would avoid the LEAF, even newer ones in the warm CA climate, ad the battery has not active thermal control, and thus has shorter life.

Also, many EV batteries should and will last 10 years or more, but I would conservatively assume that I would start to get anstsy about battery life around year 10. So, if you buy new, not a problem. But if you bought an 8 year old EV, assume you wouldn't keep it past 2 years, etc.

There is so much to learn with EVs, and the tech is evolving so fast, assume that the first one you get you will enjoy for a few years, and then replace with something much better. For this reason, I have bought cheaper EVs over the years, often leasing them, and gotten newer/better ones after a few years.
As ever, really good analysis.

J Franks was way, way ahead of me on EVs. (I was a big fan in principle, but didn't see them being a big share of the market. Certainly not over 15% of all new cars sold in 3 of the world's top 5-6 car markets (China, UK, Germany) in 2023. I think there are now 2 Teslas on *my street*. Remembering they cost in GBP here what they cost in USD there. And electricity is c $0.40 per kwhr. (There is also at least one VW ID.3, one ID.4 and probably some other EVs I haven't noticed; plug in Mitsubishi hybrid etc).

The analogy to the early days of PCs seems apt. Thinking that at one point IBM was dominant-- cleaning out all the small fry competitors making CP/M machines (Osborne Computers, anyone?). Then Dell and Compaq. Acer & Asus I think I have only heard of in the last 10-15 years.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Valuethinker »

Angel of Empire wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 8:06 am Teslas are a boondoggle.

EV fanboys talk save, save, save but if you listen carefully they're really saying spend, spend, spend.
Which is true of most cars, no?

We buy cars as aspiration goods, aligned with our self image. Marketing people have known this since at least the 1930s when GM lapped Ford by offering more models with more variety in color, etc v the Model T in black. Ford has never recaptured that lead.

Otherwise we'd all be driving 4 door Hyundai sedans, and only a handful of people would own a pickup-- people who really do visit Home Depot twice a week to haul lumber. No SUVs just minivans. etc.

The high performance aspect of a Tesla makes it a "fuel hog" (juice hog?).
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by hunoraut »

Angel of Empire wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 8:06 am Teslas are a boondoggle.

EV fanboys talk save, save, save but if you listen carefully they're really saying spend, spend, spend.
what a strawman of a suggestion.

there are EV threads on this website almost weekly. nobody preaches buying a $50k EV to "save" money. the reason people profess to like them is because they're fast, fun, and safe. and, if one were to commit to buying a new car at that price, they suggest buying the EV version, for those same reasons.
harikaried
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by harikaried »

New Teslas do have more incentives available, but used also have various savings too. California has this calculator: https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/en/savings-calculator

A quick search seems to show PG&E providing a $1000 rebate that could be increased to $4000 for certain buyers. Tesla used inventory shows a Model 3 for $26k, and that probably reduces various costs like insurance and registration.
wander
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by wander »

I would continue keeping the Mazda to save money. If you are concerned about the water pump, then just spend money to replace the pump but mostly it is not a big deal for driving local so I would replace it when seeing a problem. If you can delay the new car purchase, your money is still in the brokerage account making money for you. Car is an expense, it loses re-sale value the moment you drive it off the dealer.
FWIW, I am driving a 27 years old car and although I may spend more money on gas than an EV, technically, I am saving money.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by rallycobra »

If you meet all of these requirements-
Drive more than 10k miles a year
Can charge overnight at home with a level 2 charger (240v)
Qualify for tax rebates

A Tesla 3 or Y is a no brainer. Get the color you want, and I would suggest smallest wheels and the optional hitch if there is any chance you will use it. Skip the full self driving and maybe autopilot.

I'm in NJ and we can't find inexpensive used cars. They go overseas or other parts of the country or get sold to carmax/carvana. I don't think the OP would drive enough miles to purchase a Tesla from an economic point of view, it would be more for luxury. Most cars need a water pump after 100k. That alone is not a reason to sell the car, just change the pump. Have you changed shocks/struts brakes or have other deferred maintenance?
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wander
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by wander »

In my case, for worst case, the car is 16 mpg, I drive 10,000 miles a year and it costs $4 a gallon. The cost for gas a year is $2,500. Assume the EV pays nothing for electricity and out of the door price is $62,500, it will take 20 years to make even. My car is a luxury model and very comfort, so the replacement should be $62,500 or more. If that $62,500 is in my brokerage account, 4% withdrawal for gas will, in theory, last 30 years or more. For me, driving 10,000 miles a year is not really a clear cut. If I am in the market for car, then I will be thinking hard; but it does not always make sense for me to spend money to save money.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by quantAndHold »

wander wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:05 am In my case, for worst case, the car is 16 mpg, I drive 10,000 miles a year and it costs $4 a gallon. The cost for gas a year is $2,500. Assume the EV pays nothing for electricity and out of the door price is $62,500, it will take 20 years to make even. My car is a luxury model and very comfort, so the replacement should be $62,500 or more. If that $62,500 is in my brokerage account, 4% withdrawal for gas will, in theory, last 30 years or more. For me, driving 10,000 miles a year is not really a clear cut. If I am in the market for car, then I will be thinking hard; but it does not always make sense for me to spend money to save money.
I’m not understanding your math Did you pay $0 for that luxury car?
Scubadude
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Scubadude »

Yarlonkol12 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:20 pm I think it depends on the used car you are buying.

Personally I don't see the point in buying used with brands like Honda or Toyota (applies to others as well) as they don't deprecate enough in value to be worth it. My expectation of a used car price is that I pay 50-60% less than MSRP of the new vehicle price if I buy a 3-4 year old car, which isn't happening with those brands, a 10 year old Honda or Toyota might be only 20-30% less than new. No thanks, I'll just stick with buying new in those cases
Accurate summary- buy new and pick exactly what you want.
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quantAndHold
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by quantAndHold »

just frank wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:07 am
jplee3 wrote: Sun Sep 17, 2023 11:06 pm Wow, thanks all...

I have quite a few friends who keep pushing Tesla and touting it, which is why I'm curious. I don't know what the deal is in terms of Tesla vs "other EVs" but a lot of ppl out there (including my friends) are saying because Tesla is/was the EV front-runner, no other car manufacturer attempting to do EVs has been able to compare both on price point as well as manufacturing standards. Is this really true?
No. Tesla as an EV startup has had to maintain positive margins on every vehicle sold since the beginning, and made quite a few janky engineering choices in the early years (mostly the hand-built battery pack design). They are way ahead of the curve driving down production costs per EV, but that innovation also leads to build quality issues. The bottom line being that they need to make profit or die. And whenever they can, they have had large (Apple-like) margins in price, with luxury vehicles.

The legacy makers have been making both good and bad EVs for as long as Tesla (the Nissan LEAF and Model S launched the same year), but they have made them in smaller volumes and sold them at a loss. Their build quality has been excellent (bc the makers know how to make cars) but the drivetrains have often been iffy.
Definitely get out and look at some other brands. My thought after doing that was that the Teslas had some interesting (and often useless) features that the legacy makers didn’t have, but the legacy makers have caught up for the most part. My “economy” Chevy Bolt is really a very nice, full featured car, and if the tax incentives were not a factor, I’d be seriously looking at the various Volvos.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by TheOscarGuy »

jplee3 wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:00 pm Hey guys


Thoughts on 10-20yr 'savings' buying a Tesla with the current multiple tax credits/savings (I'm in CA) vs buying a used ICE vehicle? My wife and I currently WFH but she will be going into the office part-time soon. The office is only a few miles away though. Most of our weekly activities are local and most time is spent driving the kids to/from school and to their activities. Otherwise we don't drive outside of our area that much.

Currently we have an '08 Mazda cx9 (107k miles) and '09 rav4 (135-140k miles). There are some concerns with the Mazda as this model is susceptible to a potential water pump failure that would result in engine failure (there is info on this on Google and a lawsuit was filed but dismissed). So the first car I think I want to transition off is the Mazda. I'd want to get something that's at least the same size but preferably bigger as our rav4. I've thought about a Toyota sienna or larger SUV like a Highlander, 4runner or even newer rav4 but I feel like even used prices on Toyotas are still pretty high...
Your list is too generic to provide any meaningful feedback. 4Runner has 17mpg RAV4 hybrid can get in 40s.
Are there any 20 year old teslas ? :D
For the range + convenience of charging network (read tesla) as of now, tesla is still expensive compared to used ICE.But who knows Musk might reduce prices more to make it appealing. Maybe you don't care as much about charging network since you say most activities are local. So maybe buy a non-long-range tesla which will be cheaper ($40K) or same price as a used ICE, but with almost immediate cost savings over gas operated vehicles.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by GT99 »

jmw wrote: Sat Sep 16, 2023 1:18 pm
Are you looking for an excuse to buy a new Tesla? Every new Tesla buyer before you has suffered a massive hit on depreciation due to price decreases. Having real cash leave your wallet and get lit on fire from depreciation stinks.
Have we all, though? Current Blue Book for Trade In for My 2020 Model 3 (not private party sale which is obviously higher) is 68% of what I paid 3.5 years ago. On average, 3 year old cars are worth 58% of original price.
Tesla prices have bounced around so much that some are hit much worse than others, and I certainly could have sold mine for close to what I paid for it 18 months ago, so that's a lot of depreciation in 18 months if you want to look at it that way, but...
Realistically, the new vehicle prices are way down from peaks right now, so I'm not sure why future depreciation would assumed to be high because there was some rapid recent depreciation?
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by wander »

quantAndHold wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:23 am
wander wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:05 am In my case, for worst case, the car is 16 mpg, I drive 10,000 miles a year and it costs $4 a gallon. The cost for gas a year is $2,500. Assume the EV pays nothing for electricity and out of the door price is $62,500, it will take 20 years to make even. My car is a luxury model and very comfort, so the replacement should be $62,500 or more. If that $62,500 is in my brokerage account, 4% withdrawal for gas will, in theory, last 30 years or more. For me, driving 10,000 miles a year is not really a clear cut. If I am in the market for car, then I will be thinking hard; but it does not always make sense for me to spend money to save money.
I’m not understanding your math Did you pay $0 for that luxury car?
I gave EV a pass for free charging in my calculation. It doesn't matter if I bought my car or got it for free. It was the past. Current situation is if I want to buy an EV, I have to spend money, a lot of money. If I keep my car, then my money is still in my brokerage account.
My math gave EV a pass for free charging. Even though, I still want to keep my old car.
My point is if you want a new car, do whatever you want and don't need to ask anyone for decision. If you ask in a financial forum, it means that you think about saving money, then keeping a reliable car will generally save money. By the way, you have to know how to maintain an old car otherwise it will become a clunker.
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jplee3
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by jplee3 »

wander wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:53 pm I would continue keeping the Mazda to save money. If you are concerned about the water pump, then just spend money to replace the pump but mostly it is not a big deal for driving local so I would replace it when seeing a problem. If you can delay the new car purchase, your money is still in the brokerage account making money for you. Car is an expense, it loses re-sale value the moment you drive it off the dealer.
FWIW, I am driving a 27 years old car and although I may spend more money on gas than an EV, technically, I am saving money.
rallycobra wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:15 pm If you meet all of these requirements-
Drive more than 10k miles a year
Can charge overnight at home with a level 2 charger (240v)
Qualify for tax rebates

A Tesla 3 or Y is a no brainer. Get the color you want, and I would suggest smallest wheels and the optional hitch if there is any chance you will use it. Skip the full self driving and maybe autopilot.

I'm in NJ and we can't find inexpensive used cars. They go overseas or other parts of the country or get sold to carmax/carvana. I don't think the OP would drive enough miles to purchase a Tesla from an economic point of view, it would be more for luxury. Most cars need a water pump after 100k. That alone is not a reason to sell the car, just change the pump. Have you changed shocks/struts brakes or have other deferred maintenance?


If you look above, I explained that the water pump replacement is not a simple task and essentially requires rebuilding the engine. If you get to the point that the water pump fails, it is catastrophic and causes the engine to fail. Replacing the water pump would be expensive and likely cost as much as I paid for it used or a significant amount of that if not... So it's a catch-22 with the car and feels like a ticking time bomb; I'd rather sell it and get most of the money back for it then deal with the stress of "a broken down car at the worst time possible" (because any time is the worst time for a car to break down haha).

Here is a reference point within the past 4-5 years of someone who replaced their CX9 water pump and what it cost ($4500 for them):
https://mazdas247.com/forum/t/cx9-preve ... 123867074/

Of course, I don't know what part of the country they're in but that was the dealership's cost. I'm sure an independent could do it for less... maybe. If that were say in the midwest though, it would probably be at least $5000-6000 here in SoCal LOL.

I paid my brother probably around $4500 for the car too...lol
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Valuethinker »

jplee3 wrote: Thu Sep 21, 2023 10:28 am
wander wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 6:53 pm I would continue keeping the Mazda to save money. If you are concerned about the water pump, then just spend money to replace the pump but mostly it is not a big deal for driving local so I would replace it when seeing a problem. If you can delay the new car purchase, your money is still in the brokerage account making money for you. Car is an expense, it loses re-sale value the moment you drive it off the dealer.
FWIW, I am driving a 27 years old car and although I may spend more money on gas than an EV, technically, I am saving money.
rallycobra wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:15 pm If you meet all of these requirements-
Drive more than 10k miles a year
Can charge overnight at home with a level 2 charger (240v)
Qualify for tax rebates

A Tesla 3 or Y is a no brainer. Get the color you want, and I would suggest smallest wheels and the optional hitch if there is any chance you will use it. Skip the full self driving and maybe autopilot.

I'm in NJ and we can't find inexpensive used cars. They go overseas or other parts of the country or get sold to carmax/carvana. I don't think the OP would drive enough miles to purchase a Tesla from an economic point of view, it would be more for luxury. Most cars need a water pump after 100k. That alone is not a reason to sell the car, just change the pump. Have you changed shocks/struts brakes or have other deferred maintenance?


If you look above, I explained that the water pump replacement is not a simple task and essentially requires rebuilding the engine. If you get to the point that the water pump fails, it is catastrophic and causes the engine to fail. Replacing the water pump would be expensive and likely cost as much as I paid for it used or a significant amount of that if not... So it's a catch-22 with the car and feels like a ticking time bomb; I'd rather sell it and get most of the money back for it then deal with the stress of "a broken down car at the worst time possible" (because any time is the worst time for a car to break down haha).

Here is a reference point within the past 4-5 years of someone who replaced their CX9 water pump and what it cost ($4500 for them):
https://mazdas247.com/forum/t/cx9-preve ... 123867074/

Of course, I don't know what part of the country they're in but that was the dealership's cost. I'm sure an independent could do it for less... maybe. If that were say in the midwest though, it would probably be at least $5000-6000 here in SoCal LOL.

I paid my brother probably around $4500 for the car too...lol
1. Would an EV meet your driving needs? Range, recharging etc.

If yes, then

2. what EVs are available in my price range? Do I like sitting in them & driving them? The problems with Teslas are known and widely discussed (cheap fittings, quality control, almost 100% touchscreen, after service support and repairs, etc).

and

3. compare to used ICE car of that price range. What is available? Used cars have been "poor value" in recent years because of production shortages 2020-23. Thus right now that is 0-3 years used (roughly), next year it will be 1-4, 2-5 etc. Toyotas (and Hondas) have been particularly affected.
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Re: Tesla savings vs used ICE cars

Post by Wwwdotcom »

rallycobra wrote: Wed Sep 20, 2023 7:15 pmMost cars need a water pump after 100k. That alone is not a reason to sell the car, just change the pump. Have you changed shocks/struts brakes or have other deferred maintenance?
Maybe.. On my Honda it is not unusual for people to go 200k, some people even go 400k. The key is staying on top of coolant changes with the right spec. I mention this because preemptively replacing a functioning pump with a potential knockoff OEM pump, may actually reduce reliability.
Last edited by Wwwdotcom on Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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