$11K Electric Vehicle – In China

[like2read]

The Chinese auto company BYD recently reset the new low cost bar for EVs. They announced last month their BYD Seagull EV for a base price of $11,000.

The article questions whether this, in hindsight, might be considered a big inflection point in the "EV revolution".

Fewer parts. Easier and cheaper to assemble. How low can it go in America? Will we see EVs for less than $20K in the U.S? Cars as cheap appliances?

Current low cost leaders in the the U.S. are just under $30K.

[gatorking]

The base model of this MG EV is <10k.
https://www.mgmotor.co.in/vehicles/come ... r-in-india

[anon_investor]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

[chuckwalla]

Will we see EVs for less than $20K in the U.S? Cars as cheap appliances?

I'd say it's just a matter of time.

[stoptothink]

The Chinese auto company BYD recently reset the new low cost bar for EVs. They announced last month their BYD Seagull EV for a base price of $11,000.

The article questions whether this, in hindsight, might be considered a big inflection point in the "EV revolution".

Fewer parts. Easier and cheaper to assemble. How low can it go in America? Will we see EVs for less than $20K in the U.S? Cars as cheap appliances?

Current low cost leaders in the the U.S. are just under $30K.

While I would love something like that as our primary commuter (at least half our driving miles as a family are my wife's work commute), the lack of power and the small size of the battery pack make something like that a complete no-go in the U.S. Of course, it also wouldn't pass U.S. safety standards. The cost of an EV is in the battery; they are getting cheaper, but not very rapidly. I don't see EVs (or cars in general) getting any cheaper in the U.S. any time soon.

[Jack FFR1846]

It wasn't clearly stated, but the European commenter in the story talked about lack of door bars and air bags. I'd guess that the stringent crash test requirements here would have no chance of passing. It's great to come out with an electric Kei car but unless they plan to do like Mahindra and make a licensed 40's Jeep brought in as an ATV, what good is it?

[henry]

I wouldn't expect to see any inexpensive EVs from China in the US anytime soon. It's like the Wild West in China with numerous EV manufacturers. However, there are too many federal and state regulations that any manufacturer has to go through to sell cars in the US, and to navigate that takes time, and increases cost. I do believe the cost of EVs will get cheaper though with time from the EV makers that already have a foothold here. Probably not to below $20,000 though but I guess we will see.

[billaster]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

Not sure why not. BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric buses in the U.S. so they certainly know how to build to U.S. safety standards. And BYD sells lots of cars in the EU which some would argue has even higher safety standards than the U.S.

The Seagull is about the size of the Fiat 500 and Mini-Cooper which sell lots of cars in the U.S.

[anon_investor]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

Not sure why not. BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric buses in the U.S. so they certainly know how to build to U.S. safety standards. And BYD sells lots of cars in the EU which some would argue has even higher safety standards than the U.S.

The Seagull is about the size of the Fiat 500 and Mini-Cooper which sell lots of cars in the U.S.

I don't think they could do it at that $11k price point. I read somewhere that the EU and US crash tests are looking at different things, which might explain why they are 0 chinese cars in the US market.

[billaster]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

Not sure why not. BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric buses in the U.S. so they certainly know how to build to U.S. safety standards. And BYD sells lots of cars in the EU which some would argue has even higher safety standards than the U.S.

The Seagull is about the size of the Fiat 500 and Mini-Cooper which sell lots of cars in the U.S.

I don't think they could do it at that $11k price point. I read somewhere that the EU and US crash tests are looking at different things, which might explain why they are 0 chinese cars in the US market.

Well, yeah, but it wouldn't be that hard to add door beams for crashes. The Seagull already has four airbags. But probably significantly more than $11K, which still leaves a lot of room below the U.S. average of $45K.

There are already about a dozen Chinese cars sold in the U.S in small numbers, but no EVs -- yet. Part of that is their exclusion from EV tax credits.

[watchnerd]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

Not sure why not. BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric buses in the U.S. so they certainly know how to build to U.S. safety standards. And BYD sells lots of cars in the EU which some would argue has even higher safety standards than the U.S.

The Seagull is about the size of the Fiat 500 and Mini-Cooper which sell lots of cars in the U.S.

But those don't cost $11k new.

[henry]

I wouldn't expect to see any inexpensive EVs from China in the US anytime soon. It's like the Wild West in China with numerous EV manufacturers. However, there are too many federal and state regulations that any manufacturer has to go through to sell cars in the US, and to navigate that takes time, and increases cost. I do believe the cost of EVs will get cheaper though with time from the EV makers that already have a foothold here. Probably not to below $20,000 though but I guess we will see.

I will also add that the market for small cars (ICE or EV) is smaller in the USA relative to other parts of the world. Americans like big cars and trucks. It's more profitable to build bigger and more expensive cars and trucks whether they be EV or ICE. As an example, GM is discontinuing the Chevrolet Bolt (its cheapest and best selling EV, starting MSRP less than $30,000) later this year and converting the factory making the Bolt to build electric versions of the Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra pickup trucks which I suspect have much higher profit margins.

[bob60014]

The Ford CEO says Chinese automakers such as BYD are its greatest EV rivals.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/25/ford-ce ... idappshare

[watchnerd]

I wouldn't expect to see any inexpensive EVs from China in the US anytime soon. It's like the Wild West in China with numerous EV manufacturers. However, there are too many federal and state regulations that any manufacturer has to go through to sell cars in the US, and to navigate that takes time, and increases cost. I do believe the cost of EVs will get cheaper though with time from the EV makers that already have a foothold here. Probably not to below $20,000 though but I guess we will see.

I will also add that the market for small cars (ICE or EV) is smaller in the USA relative to other parts of the world. Americans like big cars and trucks. It's more profitable to build bigger and more expensive cars and trucks whether they be EV or ICE. As an example, GM is discontinuing the Chevrolet Bolt (its cheapest and best selling EV, starting MSRP less than $30,000) later this year and converting the factory making the Bolt to build electric versions of the Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra pickup trucks which I suspect have much higher profit margins.

+1

We wouldn't buy a small city car EV.

I'd rather pay 3x-4x the price and get something of the size we want and suits our needs (offroading, hauling dogs, hauling kayaks and bicycles).

[Jack FFR1846]

I doubt any of these cars would pass US safety requirements. I don't think any Indian or Chinese domestic car can pass current US safety standards, probably because they would get destroyed by all those SUVs in the US.

Not sure why not. BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric buses in the U.S. so they certainly know how to build to U.S. safety standards. And BYD sells lots of cars in the EU which some would argue has even higher safety standards than the U.S.

The Seagull is about the size of the Fiat 500 and Mini-Cooper which sell lots of cars in the U.S.

The Fiat 500 was discontinued for sales in the US in 2020. MINI in total sells just under 30k cars a year. This is matched by the super high volume (sarcasm) C8 Corvette. The bolt last year sold 38k, and is a closer match to what this BYD thing is, I think.

[billaster]

As an example, GM is discontinuing the Chevrolet Bolt (its cheapest and best selling EV, starting MSRP less than $30,000) later this year and converting the factory making the Bolt to build electric versions of the Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra pickup trucks which I suspect have much higher profit margins.

I think that is a temporary thing as there is a shortage of components for electric cars. If you can sell every EV you make, you are going to lean towards only the big high margin vehicles.

It's not that there isn't a demand for smaller cars. The Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic are among the largest selling models in the U.S.

Perhaps the Chinese will take over the small EV market in the U.S. the way the Japanese did in the 1980s.

[like2read]

A related thought. I am hoping the average price of autos will at some point start declining. KBB says the average cost of a car in the U.S. is almost $47K.

What about the cars most people will buy? Will a "EV Toyota Camry" ever start getting cheaper?

[LadyGeek]

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