Tesla battery day.

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thirdman
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by thirdman »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:48 am
thirdman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:26 am Tesla has a unit that designs their own ARM computer chips. They have integrated the electronics to such a degree that they do not have discrete IGBT’s, or the power switching units in the inverter controller electronics.
Can you expand on what's being used instead of discrete IGBTs? I'd think either IGBT modules (multiple IGBTs and diodes in a module, which isn't new at all) or IGBTs with drivers in a single package, which also isn't new. I would hope for the superchargers, at least, they've been using Silicon Carbide. I don't know if they are, but it's such an obvious choice, I don't know how they couldn't be.

For drive units, either IGBTs or SiC might be appropriate. I don't know how much power they use. An in between technology is GAN, which I'd think would be considered for drive units....assuming the power needed is in the appropriate range.
Please correct me if I am wrong. I got my information from the Munro Live teardown of the Model Y power electronics unit. Also, look at the teardown of the ADAS unit.

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finite_difference
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by finite_difference »

palanzo wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:08 am
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:26 pm
palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:06 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm

Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
What would you say to this then?

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/09/tesla ... -in-china/
I would say that Automatic Emergency Braking with Pedestrian Detection isn’t ready for prime time, as the test report for several vehicles concludes.

https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/aar/file ... pdf#page46

Nothing here to substantiate a charge of fraud.
The document you provided makes my point. For the humble Toyota Camry "Additionally, automatic braking completely avoided impact with the pedestrian target for all five runs at 20 mph."

You don't even need a Camry. A Corolla does very well also.

https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/to ... pedestrian

I never suggested or used the word "fraud". You must be confusing me with other posters. I would say his claims about capabilities are not true.
I think Toyota uses a laser for vehicle detection in addition to radar.

And a millimeter radar for pedestrian detection.

Does Tesla use either of these systems?

I think Elon has been too stubborn to adopt these technologies. I agree with him in principle that cameras could be used but why wouldn’t you use these additional safety technologies as well? I think that will hurt them in the long run. You want to have your algorithms be able to handle multiple instruments and inputs for all kinds of situations and weather conditions. Once you have perfect safety you can investigate simplifying it.
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MarkerFM
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MarkerFM »

I think Tesla has done some interesting things (and has promised many interesting things that are yet to happen).

However, I don't foresee demand for their vehicles ever justifying the stock price. Demand for electric vehicles will stay modest for quite some time. With all the SUVs and pickups being sold (Tesla's SUVs are too small and their pickup exists only in Elon's dreams), they do not address the bulk of the auto market. Their spartan interiors and quality and fit and finish problems will keep serious car buyers away. As competitors come in, their share of a small market will shrink. Personally, I can see one day buying an electric BMW or Mercedes-Benz, but not a Tesla.

Their financials are a mess. They lose money making cars but "earn" money selling ephemeral credits. Part of their supposed value is based on the notion they will convince buyers to pay them $100 a month for some unicorn feature like self-driving.

As for Battery Day, this is the first time in history Tesla has ever done something early. They held Battery Day 2025 in 2020!
hightower
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by hightower »

Personally, I really enjoyed the presentation. I don't usually watch their live events, this was the first one. I felt their presentation was really encouraging. They know that in order to accomplish their goals they need to be innovative and aggressive with their manufacturing and I feel like they have a good idea of how to accomplish this. I love that they are working so hard on producing massive amounts of batteries. It's such an essential part of having a sustainable energy future. I still think their current stock price is way overblown though and can't bring myself to pull the trigger yet. But, I do plan on investing in their stock at some point if it cools off a little. I do think they will be a very successful company in the future, especially on the battery/energy storage side of things.
squirm
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by squirm »

But the TSLA stonk is priced for perfection.
hightower
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by hightower »

MarkerFM wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:29 am Personally, I can see one day buying an electric BMW or Mercedes-Benz, but not a Tesla.
I own an electric BMW and though a nice car that has been very good for the 3 years and 50k miles I've put on it, I'd much rather have a Tesla for access to their charging network if nothing else (plus BMW and Mercedes have very little interest in bringing their electric vehicles here anytime soon, they both actually canceled plans to bring new electric SUVs to the American market this year). That's the single most important thing that people over look when it comes to Tesla in my opinion. No other car manufacturer is doing much of anything to ensure that long distance travel is possible. Tesla already has and is expanding it's Supercharging locations constantly.
Plus, as I mentioned above, I think it's actually going to be their battery business that makes them so successful. I really believe that eventually Powerwalls will become standard utility equipment on everyone's home. No other manufacturers are making anything close to the Powerwall now and Tesla is poised to massively ramp up production before anyone else even gets in the game. The only problem with this is that selling home battery storage is not as S3XY as cars, so it's not as exciting to investors.
Normchad
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Normchad »

hightower wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:49 pm
MarkerFM wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:29 am Personally, I can see one day buying an electric BMW or Mercedes-Benz, but not a Tesla.
I own an electric BMW and though a nice car that has been very good for the 3 years and 50k miles I've put on it, I'd much rather have a Tesla for access to their charging network if nothing else (plus BMW and Mercedes have very little interest in bringing their electric vehicles here anytime soon, they both actually canceled plans to bring new electric SUVs to the American market this year). That's the single most important thing that people over look when it comes to Tesla in my opinion. No other car manufacturer is doing much of anything to ensure that long distance travel is possible. Tesla already has and is expanding it's Supercharging locations constantly.
Plus, as I mentioned above, I think it's actually going to be their battery business that makes them so successful. I really believe that eventually Powerwalls will become standard utility equipment on everyone's home. No other manufacturers are making anything close to the Powerwall now and Tesla is poised to massively ramp up production before anyone else even gets in the game. The only problem with this is that selling home battery storage is not as S3XY as cars, so it's not as exciting to investors.
The future is going to be awesome. I own a Tesla, and I love it. However, I don't know if Tesla will survive as a company or not. Either way though, I think their biggest contribution will be to have shown the world that it is possible to make a great electric car.

They have certainly convinced every major automaker to at-least saying they are investing billions into electrification of their own fleets.

We will all be better off with more and better choices in the market. We know that the Tesla Model 3 will be bested (eventually) by offerings from every other manufacturer. And that is just fantastic. I imagine that the all electric Toyota Corolla of 2030 will make my Model 3 look weak and simple by comparison. And that will be a great thing, to have so many truly compelling offerings in the market place.

Where I live, a powerwall isn't of much interest *to me*. But for the folks that do have them, it seems they are a great thing and really do provide value. I'd probably have one if I bought a solar roof.

Tesla today does a lot of really cool things. I'm excited to see them pushing us all forward, and showing what could be possible.

It is good to see them talking about batteries, and improving battery performance and price. That will benefit everybody......
Last edited by Normchad on Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
squirm
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by squirm »

EA is increasing they're connector heads and locations at a rapid rate. They're next step is to ensure it doesn't continue operating as pathetic as it currently does. I'm not keen on their locations either, who wants to charge at a Wally World parking lot, not me.
harikaried
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by harikaried »

thirdman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:45 amI got my information from the Munro Live teardown of the Model Y power electronics unit
If you value what Sandy Munro says…

https://youtu.be/jKrFAcNgG40?t=945
"If I was a CEO of a big OEM, I'd be wetting my shorts right now. This is a turning point right now. 56% less cost. 54% more energy. This thing is ridiculous. Not only that -- it weighs less. Now I can see a $25,000 car worth driving. This is the end of the ICE age.

Image

https://youtu.be/jKrFAcNgG40?t=1303
"That slide is everything that says if you're investing in ICE vehicles -- you're screwed. That is the key slide for everything. That's what happens when you have vertical integration. That slide should have been the wake-up call for everybody to say it's time.
iamlucky13
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by iamlucky13 »

harikaried wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:02 pmIf you value what Sandy Munro says…

https://youtu.be/jKrFAcNgG40?t=945
"If I was a CEO of a big OEM, I'd be wetting my shorts right now. This is a turning point right now. 56% less cost. 54% more energy. This thing is ridiculous. Not only that -- it weighs less. Now I can see a $25,000 car worth driving. This is the end of the ICE age.

"That slide is everything that says if you're investing in ICE vehicles -- you're screwed. That is the key slide for everything. That's what happens when you have vertical integration. That slide should have been the wake-up call for everybody to say it's time.
While the projections on that slide are welcome, and I think credible on a 5-10 year time frame, they don't give us a $25,000 Model 3.

The 2019 cost estimate by Bloomberg NEF is $156/kWh, with the forecast that this will drop to about $62 by 2030. Despite the impression they tried to give in their multiple hour long Youtube ad yesterday, Tesla is not the only group working on a systematic approach to reducing battery cost and increasing energy density, but they are probably moving faster than other battery manufacturers. Tesla will have some proprietary technology to get there, like the dry film method they bought Maxwell to capture, but others will different proprietary technologies. Ultimately, the electric vehicle industry may end up with a cross licensing web similar to what happened with LED's.

Reducing the current cost per kWh by 56% turns a $45,000* car with a 60kWh battery into $39,900 car, not a $25,000 car. If you also use the 54% higher planned energy density to increase the range, then you now have a $46,300 car, although one with a 385 mile range.

Even if I start with the lowest list price offered, the proposed cost improvements leave us with $32,750 car with a 250 mile range, or a $39,100 car with ICE-equivalent range.

* My estimate from Tesla's 2019 financials and delivery numbers suggested an average Model 3 selling price of around $49,000, I lowballed my estimate slightly for this post. I suspect they are selling their $38,000 trim level for roughly break even on an incremental production basis, but a loss once including company overhead and support costs. The higher trim packages, plus the S and X are what make them profitable.

Other cost reductions besides the battery are, of course, also in work. As long as the market does not get saturated, and I don't think it will, Tesla should be able to eventually accomplish Detroit level production efficiency, and be able to offer a Model 3 base trim below $30,000, which with fuel cost savings will be roughly competitive with a $25,000 ICE sedan.

They'll work toward that incrementally, and demand will increase gradually as price comes down. There's not going to be a singular magic, "it's time" moment. The other manufacturers will jump at different times as the market grows.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MarkerFM »

iamlucky13 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:54 pm
* My estimate from Tesla's 2019 financials and delivery numbers suggested an average Model 3 selling price of around $49,000, I lowballed my estimate slightly for this post. I suspect they are selling their $38,000 trim level for roughly break even on an incremental production basis, but a loss once including company overhead and support costs. The higher trim packages, plus the S and X are what make them profitable.
Except they aren't profitable. They lose money making and selling cars. They make money from selling regulatory credits. Last quarter, they "made" about $100 million. This included $400 million in credit sales. They can take these at their discretion, but the market for them is volatile and Tesla isn't the only seller in the game. And the regulatory schemes driving this behavior is subject to constant change.
finite_difference
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by finite_difference »

iamlucky13 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:54 pm
Other cost reductions besides the battery are, of course, also in work. As long as the market does not get saturated, and I don't think it will, Tesla should be able to eventually accomplish Detroit level production efficiency, and be able to offer a Model 3 base trim below $30,000, which with fuel cost savings will be roughly competitive with a $25,000 ICE sedan.

They'll work toward that incrementally, and demand will increase gradually as price comes down. There's not going to be a singular magic, "it's time" moment. The other manufacturers will jump at different times as the market grows.
The Model 3 is $35,000. If you cut the battery cost by 56%, that would seem to get you pretty close to $30,000 together with increasing production efficiency as you mentioned. If the energy density is also increasing, should also save you on range.
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iamlucky13
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by iamlucky13 »

MarkerFM wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:24 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:54 pm
* My estimate from Tesla's 2019 financials and delivery numbers suggested an average Model 3 selling price of around $49,000, I lowballed my estimate slightly for this post. I suspect they are selling their $38,000 trim level for roughly break even on an incremental production basis, but a loss once including company overhead and support costs. The higher trim packages, plus the S and X are what make them profitable.
Except they aren't profitable. They lose money making and selling cars. They make money from selling regulatory credits. Last quarter, they "made" about $100 million. This included $400 million in credit sales. They can take these at their discretion, but the market for them is volatile and Tesla isn't the only seller in the game. And the regulatory schemes driving this behavior is subject to constant change.
I don't remember where those credits fit into their financial report. That might already have been excluded from my numbers, along with the solar and powerwall segments. Either way, it's less than 2% of their gross revenue and doesn't change my estimate of their current average revenue per car sale by much.
finite_difference wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:52 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:54 pm
Other cost reductions besides the battery are, of course, also in work. As long as the market does not get saturated, and I don't think it will, Tesla should be able to eventually accomplish Detroit level production efficiency, and be able to offer a Model 3 base trim below $30,000, which with fuel cost savings will be roughly competitive with a $25,000 ICE sedan.

They'll work toward that incrementally, and demand will increase gradually as price comes down. There's not going to be a singular magic, "it's time" moment. The other manufacturers will jump at different times as the market grows.
The Model 3 is $35,000. If you cut the battery cost by 56%, that would seem to get you pretty close to $30,000 together with increasing production efficiency as you mentioned. If the energy density is also increasing, should also save you on range.
Part of the point is that the Model really isn't a $35,000 car currently. They offer one trim level for that price. They might even be able to build it in terms of only parts + material + labor for that, but I suspect only if they count it as an incremental sale, and perhaps not if they also amortize part of their production line capital cost to it. Definitely not if they attribute a share of their corporate overhead and R&D to it.

It is a fair point that all of this logic applies at the $30,000 price point, too. It also applies to other car companies, although the other car companies usually have a tighter price spread, so the average selling price that drives the company profitability is closer to the minimum selling price.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by btenny »

That presentation yesterday was a real mess and Wall Street voted likewise. Where were the Panasonic people and how do they fit in the future Tesla plan? For the last 5 years or so Panasonic has provided reliable high performance batteries in massive quantities and quiet get it done skills. I am pretty sure Tesla would not even be alive without Panasonics drive to help build that Mega Factory. Do any of you really believe that Elon Musk and a few young engineers replace decades of corporate knowledge that Panasonic has on making batteries????

Maybe some of the stuff proposed will work and maybe not. Sure they can set up a good lab to make a few cells that work better. Sure they can vertically integrate some components and improve cell and car performance. But where is the skill to scale these changes to millions of cells per month with near zero defects? Or will the new Tesla battery line be like the Tesla car line? Full of defects with poor reliability?

So color me bah humbug to the whole thing. I just heard a lot of wishful thinking.....
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by 4nursebee »

btenny wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:35 am That presentation yesterday was a real mess and Wall Street voted likewise. Where were the Panasonic people and how do they fit in the future Tesla plan? For the last 5 years or so Panasonic has provided reliable high performance batteries in massive quantities and quiet get it done skills. I am pretty sure Tesla would not even be alive without Panasonics drive to help build that Mega Factory. Do any of you really believe that Elon Musk and a few young engineers replace decades of corporate knowledge that Panasonic has on making batteries????

Maybe some of the stuff proposed will work and maybe not. Sure they can set up a good lab to make a few cells that work better. Sure they can vertically integrate some components and improve cell and car performance. But where is the skill to scale these changes to millions of cells per month with near zero defects? Or will the new Tesla battery line be like the Tesla car line? Full of defects with poor reliability?

So color me bah humbug to the whole thing. I just heard a lot of wishful thinking.....
Huh? I thought they said they would buy every battery that everybody could make? They have been battery constrained for a long time. PCRFY is not set up to make 3 terawatt of batteries though. What research is CATL and PCRFY doing to solve the battery issues?
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by iamlucky13 »

btenny wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:35 am That presentation yesterday was a real mess and Wall Street voted likewise. Where were the Panasonic people and how do they fit in the future Tesla plan? For the last 5 years or so Panasonic has provided reliable high performance batteries in massive quantities and quiet get it done skills. I am pretty sure Tesla would not even be alive without Panasonics drive to help build that Mega Factory. Do any of you really believe that Elon Musk and a few young engineers replace decades of corporate knowledge that Panasonic has on making batteries????

Maybe some of the stuff proposed will work and maybe not. Sure they can set up a good lab to make a few cells that work better. Sure they can vertically integrate some components and improve cell and car performance. But where is the skill to scale these changes to millions of cells per month with near zero defects? Or will the new Tesla battery line be like the Tesla car line? Full of defects with poor reliability?

So color me bah humbug to the whole thing. I just heard a lot of wishful thinking.....
Every presentation Musk gives is a mess. It's something you learn to ignore and focus on the more important details. Anybody who invests in Tesla on the expectation of clear communication is wildly ignorant about where they're sending their money. However, I would bet the drop in stock price afterwards (which was unremarkable compared to its past volatility) was more related to the fact that the big battery day they've been hyping but sliding for the last year discussed goals that although ambitious, were practical and incremental, rather that potentially paradigm shifting.

Musk and a few young engineers are not the ones who would hit Tesla's growth ambitions. It would be large teams of engineers, and they need experienced senior engineers and access to promising R&D leads to help them, which is part of why they bought Maxwell, and still have an active partnership with Panasonic.
4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:43 am Huh? I thought they said they would buy every battery that everybody could make? They have been battery constrained for a long time. PCRFY is not set up to make 3 terawatt of batteries though. What research is CATL and PCRFY doing to solve the battery issues?
Clearly not every battery. The places I buy 18650's from still have those and 21700's in stock. It looks like everybody is sold out of 46800's though. 8-)

I haven't tried to dig into what research is being done by companies like Panasonic and Amperex (I had to look up the ticker symbols). I guarantee they are, though. The bigger question for them is probably how much to invest in new infrastructure and manufacturing techniques suited for larger scales. Tesla says the battery market will grow 30x over the next decade. That's huge, and there has to be some skepticism of that, so I expect the battery makers to invest for lesser growth and let Tesla take the risk in-house or sign firm long term purchase commitments. Panasonic has already pushed back against some of Tesla's plans due to cost and profitability concerns.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by hagridshut »

TSLA is proof that Jack Bogle was right. Generally speaking, "nobody knows nothing".

Many people here have been shouting for years that TSLA is a terrible investment. Anyone who bought TSLA on IPO day and held those shares until the present is up over 10,500% in the past decade. By comparison, SPY or VOO are up approximately 220% during the same time span.

Bitcoin was $0.008 each around the date of Tesla's IPO. Today, BTC trades around $10,720.34/coin, for a gain of 134,000,000%, demolishing even TSLA as the asset with highest appreciation from July 2010 to the present. This happened, despite vehement opposition to BTC by many in the community here. Heck, even I don't believe much in BTC, but there can be no denying the fact that it was a better investment than VOO or TSLA.

Haters will hate.

But Jack Bogle was right: "nobody knows nothing".
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Valuethinker
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Valuethinker »

palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:34 pm
finite_difference wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:03 pm I did watch it live. They slid this media event so many times over the last year I didn't have a clue it was happening today until I saw this thread.

I did just look up the stored webcast to jump to around and listen to the comments for some of the numbers-oriented and technical slides.

They state that 100% electrification of transportation requires 100x growth in battery production - from 0.1 TWh per year expected in 2022, to 10 TWh to sustain a global fleet with a 15 year life expectancy. Plus similar production again to supply the grid with the storage capacity it would need. So they suggest a total battery market for approximately 20 TWh of annual manufacturing capacity, or 200x the current total. They want to get to 3 TWh annual production over the next decade.

In other words, there is a lot of room for market growth, if they can make the cost and performance compelling.

As a point of comparison, current lead acid battery production is around 0.45 TWh per year.

They're trying to revisit the battery design on multiple levels. Each one gives them a small cost, capacity, or density improvement. Combined, they are hoping to increase equivalent EV range by 54% and reduce battery cost by 56%. That would put them around $70 per kWh, I believe. Verbally Tesla projected this over a 3 year time frame, but the chart they showed seemed to suggest a 5 year time frame. It's Musk time either way, so who knows. Building a better battery is harder than scheduling a media day, and we saw how long it took to pin down a date for this presentation.

For another comparison, Bloomberg, which has been producing periodic forecasts of the lithium-ion battery industry, recently predicted the industry would be at $94 per kWh around 2024, and $62 per kWh around 2030.

Overall, it sounds credible to me, eventually. It will be interesting to see how long it really takes and how well other manufacturers will keep up.
Great summary. I agree with your take aways, and I think what it really shows is how the writing is on the wall for ICE. Once batteries hit sub $100 kWh it’s pretty much game over. And then dropping to $62? Imagine if the cost to construct an ICE engine could drop in price by 35% in 6 years. As more and more car manufacturers get involved, the battery technology will just get even better.
California can't keep the grid running on a hot day. How do you think they are going to keep the grid running if all cars are electric? Where do you think the generation capacity will come from? Hint: not from wind and solar. And finally, take a look at the carbon impact of battery manufacturing and the ecological issues around Li and rare earth mining.
Taking the absolute peak of an energy system is not a fair comparison. We will charge our cars at night, in our driveways. And under the solar panel shades at the office car park.

Hint: yes from wind and solar. The wind and solar resources of this planet are more than 100x our current energy usage *and* a EV is at least 3x more efficient user of energy than an ICE (which caps out at c 25-28% thermal efficiency plus the additional well-to-wheel costs).

Energy storage is a challenge but we have hardly gotten going on solutions. There is hydrogen w billion dollar prototypes being worked on as part of EU green budget stimulus. Ammonia. Vanadium flow batteries. Compressed air. I could keep going. Oh and of course the wind does not only blow when the sun shines, and vice versa.

The mining issues can be handled. We don't stop gold mining because it is far worse than mining copper say. And no one suggests we stop mining copper. Lithium is one of the universe's most common metals and Rare Earths are not necessarily "rare" despite the name.

If you look at the environmental costs of blowing the tops off mountains to mine *coal* or tar sands operations, none of this looks impossible.

The scale is titanic. But in 1938 the US made something under 1000 warplanes. In 1943? Having only been at war 2 years.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by palanzo »

Valuethinker wrote: Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:17 am
palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:34 pm
finite_difference wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:03 pm I did watch it live. They slid this media event so many times over the last year I didn't have a clue it was happening today until I saw this thread.

I did just look up the stored webcast to jump to around and listen to the comments for some of the numbers-oriented and technical slides.

They state that 100% electrification of transportation requires 100x growth in battery production - from 0.1 TWh per year expected in 2022, to 10 TWh to sustain a global fleet with a 15 year life expectancy. Plus similar production again to supply the grid with the storage capacity it would need. So they suggest a total battery market for approximately 20 TWh of annual manufacturing capacity, or 200x the current total. They want to get to 3 TWh annual production over the next decade.

In other words, there is a lot of room for market growth, if they can make the cost and performance compelling.

As a point of comparison, current lead acid battery production is around 0.45 TWh per year.

They're trying to revisit the battery design on multiple levels. Each one gives them a small cost, capacity, or density improvement. Combined, they are hoping to increase equivalent EV range by 54% and reduce battery cost by 56%. That would put them around $70 per kWh, I believe. Verbally Tesla projected this over a 3 year time frame, but the chart they showed seemed to suggest a 5 year time frame. It's Musk time either way, so who knows. Building a better battery is harder than scheduling a media day, and we saw how long it took to pin down a date for this presentation.

For another comparison, Bloomberg, which has been producing periodic forecasts of the lithium-ion battery industry, recently predicted the industry would be at $94 per kWh around 2024, and $62 per kWh around 2030.

Overall, it sounds credible to me, eventually. It will be interesting to see how long it really takes and how well other manufacturers will keep up.
Great summary. I agree with your take aways, and I think what it really shows is how the writing is on the wall for ICE. Once batteries hit sub $100 kWh it’s pretty much game over. And then dropping to $62? Imagine if the cost to construct an ICE engine could drop in price by 35% in 6 years. As more and more car manufacturers get involved, the battery technology will just get even better.
California can't keep the grid running on a hot day. How do you think they are going to keep the grid running if all cars are electric? Where do you think the generation capacity will come from? Hint: not from wind and solar. And finally, take a look at the carbon impact of battery manufacturing and the ecological issues around Li and rare earth mining.
Taking the absolute peak of an energy system is not a fair comparison. We will charge our cars at night, in our driveways. And under the solar panel shades at the office car park.

Hint: yes from wind and solar. The wind and solar resources of this planet are more than 100x our current energy usage *and* a EV is at least 3x more efficient user of energy than an ICE (which caps out at c 25-28% thermal efficiency plus the additional well-to-wheel costs).

Energy storage is a challenge but we have hardly gotten going on solutions. There is hydrogen w billion dollar prototypes being worked on as part of EU green budget stimulus. Ammonia. Vanadium flow batteries. Compressed air. I could keep going. Oh and of course the wind does not only blow when the sun shines, and vice versa.

The mining issues can be handled. We don't stop gold mining because it is far worse than mining copper say. And no one suggests we stop mining copper. Lithium is one of the universe's most common metals and Rare Earths are not necessarily "rare" despite the name.

If you look at the environmental costs of blowing the tops off mountains to mine *coal* or tar sands operations, none of this looks impossible.

The scale is titanic. But in 1938 the US made something under 1000 warplanes. In 1943? Having only been at war 2 years.
I think it is a fair comparison. During the wild fires we have to keep the AC running both because it is still hot at night and because the air is so polluted. How then do you charge your electric car? PG&E has to shut down parts of the grid on a regular basis so that its equipment does not cause more fires. If you are interested, read about the billion dollar settlement from the Paradise fire started by faulty PG&E equipment. How are people going to charge their cars in the wildfire areas when the grid is shut down for days as it has been this fire season and the last 5 fire seasons. How are people going to escape in an electric car? This is the reality of living in California.

Elon has rights to large amounts of Li in Nevada as he announced. So he is going to blow the tops of mountains to mine Li ore. Serious environmental costs there too. I'm not suggesting we should no do this but it would be better if the all the environmental costs and infrastructure costs were disclosed up front.

Wind and solar alone are insufficient. We will need a base load from coal and natural gas. Currently California relies on importing large amounts of power from OR and NV. At the same time the state decommissioned several natural gas plants well before the end of their service life. All this is fine until you have hot weather and OR and NV don't have any power to sell.

All of this happened this year and similar things happened in previous years. It's been a miserable and deadly situation for the people living in California.

I agree we would need to design and build massive storage systems. Sure that's possible but you have to remember that Gavin is spending 80 Billion dollars on a train to nowhere. Where does the money come from for a grid that can support all these electric cars and the necessary storage systems. As you say the scale is titanic. Unfortunately the history of infrastructure projects in California is not a good. Please read the story about the high speed train and how decisions are made. Sadly, I for one am not optimistic that better decisions and planning will ensue.

Here is an example of what we are facing today. 2020-09-27 or 27-09-2020.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN26I10V
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