Tesla battery day.

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4nursebee
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Tesla battery day.

Post by 4nursebee »

Are you watching?
What impact will this have in the world?
And on share price?

He said ultimately they will be judged by how much they shortened the time to world using sustainable energy.
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MotoTrojan
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

Personally I think the day along with most announcements by Tesla are full of misleading and often outright fraudulent information. I think Elon's tweet yesterday cooling things off was hilarious, and I expect some downward pressure as call options hoping for a pop expire worthless and market makers unhedge (by selling TSLA shares).
runner3081
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by runner3081 »

Nope, no interest.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

Yikes this isn't going well... some cringey moments.
emoore
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by emoore »

It's just their plan to start building more batteries which is awesome. We need more suppliers to build more and more batteries to make more EVs and energy storage. I'm sure LG Chem, CATL, Panasonic, etc. are doing the same things.
killjoy2012
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by killjoy2012 »

Yes, purely out of curiosity.
No impact, other than minor efficiencies in cost and production capacity. And their concepts aren't even production ready per their own admission.
None, the stock is already priced as if Tesla's new battery is going to solve climate change, world hunger, racism, poverty, etc.

Elon really isn't a good public speaker. And the production quality of the event was actually kinda subpar/amateur.
emoore
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by emoore »

killjoy2012 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:17 pm Yes, purely out of curiosity.
No impact, other than minor efficiencies in cost and production capacity. And their concepts aren't even production ready per their own admission.
None, the stock is already priced as if Tesla's new battery is going to solve climate change, world hunger, racism, poverty, etc.

Elon really isn't a good public speaker. And the production quality of the event was actually kinda subpar/amateur.
Ha. I agree. It's difficult to listen to him speak in public. He's no Steve Jobs. Although he does know how to start a company.
interwebopinion
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by interwebopinion »

Generally an Elon skeptic - but today I've been impressed. It will make electric cars *cheaper* than gas powered cars. That's an amazing milestone. If anyone can pull it off, it's him.
rich126
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by rich126 »

So far the stock is dropping after hours. -6% so far. By tomorrow, who knows.
anoop
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by anoop »

rich126 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:39 pm So far the stock is dropping after hours. -6% so far. By tomorrow, who knows.
Is this a good entry point?
jdb
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by jdb »

anoop wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:43 pm
rich126 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:39 pm So far the stock is dropping after hours. -6% so far. By tomorrow, who knows.
Is this a good entry point?
If you watch staged media events like battery day and obsess over negative comments on company and don’t like roller coaster rides then never a good entry point. OTOH if you are willing to hold for at least five years and enjoy the volatility and ignore the noise then anytime is good entry point and you will thank me in five years. Good luck.
sambb
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by sambb »

He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
lightheir
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by lightheir »

sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
Short seller?
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4nursebee
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by 4nursebee »

My take:
I've been concerned about how the world would make enough batteries to change away from ICE. A path was layed out for this today. I'm not a fancy science nerd but that presentation was very reasonable. Trevor Milton bias ringing: How much was Musk selling what is not yet available? I bet not much but the concern is there. He seemed honest describing two big problems, the dry electrode process scaling, and the need for rewrite of autopilot. Did other great business leaders ever describe problems so honestly?

I think great leaders see a path forward and push to get there. Musk does a good job taking the limiters off (David Goggins reference). I'd like to go work for them and help the mission, especially as he described they will be judged by how many years they shave off adoption of sustainable transportation. He also did a good job painting a better world, zero emission, all green, carbon neutral crap. Better manufacturing neat, new metal casting, battery pack part of frame.

Secret sauce not disclosed: Table salt Li extraction, eliminating steps from old metal processes.
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Bogle7
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Bogle7 »

I got a charge out of the presentation.
iamlucky13
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by iamlucky13 »

I did not watch it live. They slid this media event so many times over the last year I didn't have a clue it was happening today until I saw this thread.

I did just look up the stored webcast to jump to around and listen to the comments for some of the numbers-oriented and technical slides.

They state that 100% electrification of transportation requires 100x growth in battery production - from 0.1 TWh per year expected in 2022, to 10 TWh to sustain a global fleet with a 15 year life expectancy. Plus similar production again to supply the grid with the storage capacity it would need. So they suggest a total battery market for approximately 20 TWh of annual manufacturing capacity, or 200x the current total. They want to get to 3 TWh annual production over the next decade.

In other words, there is a lot of room for market growth, if they can make the cost and performance compelling.

As a point of comparison, current lead acid battery production is around 0.45 TWh per year.

They're trying to revisit the battery design on multiple levels. Each one gives them a small cost, capacity, or density improvement. Combined, they are hoping to increase equivalent EV range by 54% and reduce battery cost by 56%. That would put them around $70 per kWh, I believe. Verbally Tesla projected this over a 3 year time frame, but the chart they showed seemed to suggest a 5 year time frame. It's Musk time either way, so who knows. Building a better battery is harder than scheduling a media day, and we saw how long it took to pin down a date for this presentation.

For another comparison, Bloomberg, which has been producing periodic forecasts of the lithium-ion battery industry, recently predicted the industry would be at $94 per kWh around 2024, and $62 per kWh around 2030.

Overall, it sounds credible to me, eventually. It will be interesting to see how long it really takes and how well other manufacturers will keep up.

* Edit - "did not watch it live..." (first sentence)
Last edited by iamlucky13 on Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
finite_difference
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by finite_difference »

lightheir wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:26 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
Short seller?
I think he’s thinking of the CEO of Nikola. Ex-CEO actually, since he just resigned.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
Boglelicious123
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Boglelicious123 »

Say what you want about Musk and his presentations, but when he says something is being worked on it generally happens. Have to respect that
finite_difference
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by finite_difference »

iamlucky13 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:03 pm I did watch it live. They slid this media event so many times over the last year I didn't have a clue it was happening today until I saw this thread.

I did just look up the stored webcast to jump to around and listen to the comments for some of the numbers-oriented and technical slides.

They state that 100% electrification of transportation requires 100x growth in battery production - from 0.1 TWh per year expected in 2022, to 10 TWh to sustain a global fleet with a 15 year life expectancy. Plus similar production again to supply the grid with the storage capacity it would need. So they suggest a total battery market for approximately 20 TWh of annual manufacturing capacity, or 200x the current total. They want to get to 3 TWh annual production over the next decade.

In other words, there is a lot of room for market growth, if they can make the cost and performance compelling.

As a point of comparison, current lead acid battery production is around 0.45 TWh per year.

They're trying to revisit the battery design on multiple levels. Each one gives them a small cost, capacity, or density improvement. Combined, they are hoping to increase equivalent EV range by 54% and reduce battery cost by 56%. That would put them around $70 per kWh, I believe. Verbally Tesla projected this over a 3 year time frame, but the chart they showed seemed to suggest a 5 year time frame. It's Musk time either way, so who knows. Building a better battery is harder than scheduling a media day, and we saw how long it took to pin down a date for this presentation.

For another comparison, Bloomberg, which has been producing periodic forecasts of the lithium-ion battery industry, recently predicted the industry would be at $94 per kWh around 2024, and $62 per kWh around 2030.

Overall, it sounds credible to me, eventually. It will be interesting to see how long it really takes and how well other manufacturers will keep up.
Great summary. I agree with your take aways, and I think what it really shows is how the writing is on the wall for ICE. Once batteries hit sub $100 kWh it’s pretty much game over. And then dropping to $62? Imagine if the cost to construct an ICE engine could drop in price by 35% in 6 years. As more and more car manufacturers get involved, the battery technology will just get even better.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
finite_difference
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by finite_difference »

Boglelicious123 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:22 pm Say what you want about Musk and his presentations, but when he says something is being worked on it generally happens. Have to respect that
... Eventually. But yes, I agree with you that he has a track record now of delivering. There’s hype too, but he has the vision, and that’s half the battle. The other half is attracting and hiring the people who can help carry it out.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
marcwd
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by marcwd »

sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
palanzo
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by palanzo »

finite_difference wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:03 pm I did watch it live. They slid this media event so many times over the last year I didn't have a clue it was happening today until I saw this thread.

I did just look up the stored webcast to jump to around and listen to the comments for some of the numbers-oriented and technical slides.

They state that 100% electrification of transportation requires 100x growth in battery production - from 0.1 TWh per year expected in 2022, to 10 TWh to sustain a global fleet with a 15 year life expectancy. Plus similar production again to supply the grid with the storage capacity it would need. So they suggest a total battery market for approximately 20 TWh of annual manufacturing capacity, or 200x the current total. They want to get to 3 TWh annual production over the next decade.

In other words, there is a lot of room for market growth, if they can make the cost and performance compelling.

As a point of comparison, current lead acid battery production is around 0.45 TWh per year.

They're trying to revisit the battery design on multiple levels. Each one gives them a small cost, capacity, or density improvement. Combined, they are hoping to increase equivalent EV range by 54% and reduce battery cost by 56%. That would put them around $70 per kWh, I believe. Verbally Tesla projected this over a 3 year time frame, but the chart they showed seemed to suggest a 5 year time frame. It's Musk time either way, so who knows. Building a better battery is harder than scheduling a media day, and we saw how long it took to pin down a date for this presentation.

For another comparison, Bloomberg, which has been producing periodic forecasts of the lithium-ion battery industry, recently predicted the industry would be at $94 per kWh around 2024, and $62 per kWh around 2030.

Overall, it sounds credible to me, eventually. It will be interesting to see how long it really takes and how well other manufacturers will keep up.
Great summary. I agree with your take aways, and I think what it really shows is how the writing is on the wall for ICE. Once batteries hit sub $100 kWh it’s pretty much game over. And then dropping to $62? Imagine if the cost to construct an ICE engine could drop in price by 35% in 6 years. As more and more car manufacturers get involved, the battery technology will just get even better.
California can't keep the grid running on a hot day. How do you think they are going to keep the grid running if all cars are electric? Where do you think the generation capacity will come from? Hint: not from wind and solar. And finally, take a look at the carbon impact of battery manufacturing and the ecological issues around Li and rare earth mining.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by marcwd »

Bogle7 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:56 pm I got a charge out of the presentation.
:oops:
MotoTrojan
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

interwebopinion wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:39 pm Generally an Elon skeptic - but today I've been impressed. It will make electric cars *cheaper* than gas powered cars. That's an amazing milestone. If anyone can pull it off, it's him.
Yeah every claim he’s made has come true... knock knock, who’s there? SEC. SEC who?
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
Last edited by MotoTrojan on Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MotoTrojan
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

Boglelicious123 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:22 pm Say what you want about Musk and his presentations, but when he says something is being worked on it generally happens. Have to respect that
This is deeply deeply mistaken. His track record is appalling.
interwebopinion
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by interwebopinion »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:37 pm
interwebopinion wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:39 pm Generally an Elon skeptic - but today I've been impressed. It will make electric cars *cheaper* than gas powered cars. That's an amazing milestone. If anyone can pull it off, it's him.
Yeah every claim he’s made has come true... knock knock, who’s there? SEC. SEC who?
It's the silicon valley way - fake it till you make it. But you can't deny he makes it in the end. I wouldn't bet against him.
miyaraj354
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by miyaraj354 »

I had not had the chance to look up the event but have marked it in my calendar to watch. Did Elon make any announcements regarding solid state batteries? Is Tesla keen on solid state batteries or do they have something proprietary?
FoolStreet
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by FoolStreet »

4nursebee wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:34 pm Are you watching?
What impact will this have in the world?
And on share price?

He said ultimately they will be judged by how much they shortened the time to world using sustainable energy.
You know I’m a huge fan of the company (no opinion on the stock) and I did watch the event with much appreciation for what they are doing, but let’s keep the discussion actionable.
iamlucky13
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by iamlucky13 »

palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:34 pm California can't keep the grid running on a hot day. How do you think they are going to keep the grid running if all cars are electric? Where do you think the generation capacity will come from? Hint: not from wind and solar. And finally, take a look at the carbon impact of battery manufacturing and the ecological issues around Li and rare earth mining.
These issues get handwaved by people like Musk. However, even though they are non-trivial, and I'm usually on the skeptical side of the conversation trying to counter unrealistic expectations, I do expect that there will be quite a bit of evolution of our grid over the next 20-30 years. The energy industry likewise expects solar and wind to continue growing significantly in market share, with solar likely to provide the largest single share of global energy generation, but still be a minority overall.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by marcwd »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
Wannaretireearly
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Wannaretireearly »

What did he say about powerwall 3 (just got my Tesla solar) and the Cybertruck V2H (just put my deposit down).

Sipping on my poor mans bourbon, per the other thread...hahaha haha.

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palanzo
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by palanzo »

iamlucky13 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:55 pm
palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:34 pm California can't keep the grid running on a hot day. How do you think they are going to keep the grid running if all cars are electric? Where do you think the generation capacity will come from? Hint: not from wind and solar. And finally, take a look at the carbon impact of battery manufacturing and the ecological issues around Li and rare earth mining.
These issues get handwaved by people like Musk. However, even though they are non-trivial, and I'm usually on the skeptical side of the conversation trying to counter unrealistic expectations, I do expect that there will be quite a bit of evolution of our grid over the next 20-30 years. The energy industry likewise expects solar and wind to continue growing significantly in market share, with solar likely to provide the largest single share of global energy generation, but still be a minority overall.
I agree with you. These issues are dismissed or not understood by most people, not just Musk, and especially by those making the decisions at the state level. We need an integrated approach and we don't seem to be very good at doing that.
bugleheadd
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by bugleheadd »

TSLA dump after hours. guess market isnt impressed with battery day
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by MotoTrojan »

marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
What if his equity-pumping lies end up costing investors far more in losses than Holmes did? Frankly there’s actually strong parallels between them, same with Nikola’s Milton.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by palanzo »

marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
What would you say to this then?

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/09/tesla ... -in-china/
marcwd
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by marcwd »

palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:06 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
What would you say to this then?

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/09/tesla ... -in-china/
I would say that Automatic Emergency Braking with Pedestrian Detection isn’t ready for prime time, as the test report for several vehicles concludes.

https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/aar/file ... pdf#page46

Nothing here to substantiate a charge of fraud.
palanzo
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by palanzo »

marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:26 pm
palanzo wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:06 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm

A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
I spend no time on Twitter. But exaggerations and even possible lying aside, Musk has developed innovative cars that many people continue to buy, drive, and like. I would describe Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos as a fraud. Not Musk.
What would you say to this then?

https://www.carscoops.com/2020/09/tesla ... -in-china/
I would say that Automatic Emergency Braking with Pedestrian Detection isn’t ready for prime time, as the test report for several vehicles concludes.

https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/aar/file ... pdf#page46

Nothing here to substantiate a charge of fraud.
The document you provided makes my point. For the humble Toyota Camry "Additionally, automatic braking completely avoided impact with the pedestrian target for all five runs at 20 mph."

You don't even need a Camry. A Corolla does very well also.

https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/to ... pedestrian

I never suggested or used the word "fraud". You must be confusing me with other posters. I would say his claims about capabilities are not true.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by cheesepep »

I don't get how these tests are done. Is the car on cruise control down a street and when someone steps in front of the vehicle, then it stops? Or does it happen when the driver is manually piloting the vehicle also?
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Stef
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Stef »

Increasing capacity by 50% and reducing producing costs of the battery by 50% sounds awesome!
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by 4nursebee »

I think this link works for the video: https://www.youtube.com/embed/l6T9xIeZTds

If you are an engineering type and have comments, I'd love to know the comments and what your background is.
The plaid model S has wicked numbers!

Someone commented about market dumping after hours.I saw that also but am more concerned what big money funds think of this, gauge their reaction in the market. I've heard that in Asian markets other battery suppliers were down. It's not todays reaction that matters, rather what happens in coming weeks.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by 4nursebee »

Wow, what an opinion on what can happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hSlLskpttA
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Brianmcg321 »

Bogle7 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:56 pm I got a charge out of the presentation.
Did you get a tingle down your leg?
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Brianmcg321 »

I guess it didn’t impress many people. TSLA is down 5% before the open.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by mmmodem »

Don't own a Tesla. Don't own any stock outside my index funds. But I'm a huge Musk fan. I get pure enjoyment watching "fossils" get proven wrong, time and again. I get it, the guy stumbles in his speech, lies and boasts. He is always late. The guy is no Steve Jobs... yet.

I followed Tesla closely when they first started and I just don't see why the hate and vitriol. They're trying to wean us off the dependence on oil. If you are going to hate. Hate Solyndra https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solyndra. Those are the companies that have negatively affected solar and battery companies reputations.

I don't think he's a fraud. If he hasn't convinced you yet, I thank you for the entertainment you are giving me. I did not watch battery day. I have no interest. I can't afford a Tesla yet so it has no effect on me.

I'd rather follow this thread and see how Tesla and Musk proves people wrong. This is my favorite BH thread on Tesla.
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Blueskies123 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:38 pm
marcwd wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:33 pm
sambb wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:46 pm He's a fraud, but it is nice to have disruptive technology.
A fraud? Tell us more.
Spend more time on Twitter. He’s made numerous claims that are outright lies about capability, timelines, progress, etc.

He’s lied about scrap quantities. He’s also implicated in a large scale drug trade using the gigafactory.
Yeah, I listened to the Grant Williams podcast also and I lost a lot of respect for his work listening to these claims. The premise is that Elon exaggerates, someone stole some copper at one of his plants, and some of his employees were smuggling drugs from Mexico in parts packages. Grant says that because of these 3 factors Tesla is a giant house of cards ready to collapse. What a joke. As if these things do not happen at all companies but becuase these people have lost millions on short positions they say Elon is a fraud. Shorts have lost so much money they have dedicated their lives to revenge on Tesla because of feeling of lack on their own part.
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging
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thirdman
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by thirdman »

Yesterday confirmed Tesla is years ahead of the other auto and battery manufacturers. I think this is because of Elon Musk’s ideas and his management style which was evident at yesterdays presentation. He is fault tolerant of the people he works with as long as they innovate, and work toward the important goal. This can best be seen by the software in both Tesla and SpaceX. Volkswagen and Boeing’s stumbling blocks have been faulty software. Musk understood from the start that if the software didn't work, the whole project would fail. Because of this he built a simple elegant software platform and team that are very nimble and can innovate rapidly.

The heat pump unit in the Model Y is simple, compact and efficient. Musk was asked if Tesla was going to manufacture units for buildings. He said that is being considered. In ten years if I build a house it could have a Tesla roof, power electronics, batteries, and heating cooling units.

Tesla and SpaceX have developed their own metal alloys. Tesla also has its own building department that designs the facilities with the product and manufacturing engineers.

Tesla has a unit that designs their own ARM computer chips. They have integrated the electronics to such a degree that they do not have discrete IGBT’s, or the power switching units in the inverter controller electronics. They do not work on model years but integrate new technology in the vehicle when it is ready.

I can't think of another company that innovates and thinks out of the box like Tesla. Tesla reminds me of Apple under Jobs. Jobs was under tremendous pressure to add buttons to the iPhone from his teams at Apple. They all were influenced by the Blackberry and couldn't conceive of anything else.

Until some other paradigm comes along for an electric energy storage device I think innovating rapidly in the lithium ion battery space will be the key to an affordable electric vehicle.

Because of Tesla’s nimbleness and vertical integration they do not have the drag that other manufacturers have, including legacy and startups. I think Tesla will continue to lead in developing the affordable, workable, acceptable mass market electric car and infrastructure.

thirdman
Jack FFR1846
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

thirdman wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:26 am Tesla has a unit that designs their own ARM computer chips. They have integrated the electronics to such a degree that they do not have discrete IGBT’s, or the power switching units in the inverter controller electronics.
Can you expand on what's being used instead of discrete IGBTs? I'd think either IGBT modules (multiple IGBTs and diodes in a module, which isn't new at all) or IGBTs with drivers in a single package, which also isn't new. I would hope for the superchargers, at least, they've been using Silicon Carbide. I don't know if they are, but it's such an obvious choice, I don't know how they couldn't be.

For drive units, either IGBTs or SiC might be appropriate. I don't know how much power they use. An in between technology is GAN, which I'd think would be considered for drive units....assuming the power needed is in the appropriate range.
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DH0
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by DH0 »

I was very impressed by the 'vision' yesterday and have no doubt that Musk and his team can get us there. That said it was clear there is still a lot of work to do and we won't see a major impact on the top, never mind bottom line any time soon (in Wall Street terms, i.e. < 3 yrs).

Most of what was presented yesterday was already known through leaks (new larger tabless cell, model S plaid). The downturn today mainly reflects investors selling the news. I think the stock is priced for perfection at the moment and would not be surprised by a 20–30% correction in the short term. Long term they are a great company and I remain very bullish.
harikaried
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Re: Tesla battery day.

Post by harikaried »

At a high level, Tesla announced they're expanding into other industries with their vertical integration:
  • battery design and manufacturing (cell/cathode/anode family: storage/low-cost vs long range vs performance/weight-sensitive)
  • chemical materials (extracting value from raw materials)
  • mining and recycling (self-sourcing lithium and metals)
They're applying their relentless first-principles approach to all of the above like they've done for automobiles, e.g., removing battery modules and using cells as body structure to connect front/rear castings all to improve range, reduce unit cost and better manufacturing (less space and increased output).
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