Tesla Full Self Driving Option

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retire14
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by retire14 »

I just ordered a Model Y. I decided to include the FSD not based on cost/benefits but more on why I wanted a Tesla in the first place. I want it because of its technology. And I want to grow with Tesla as it rolls out FSD software releases. I just read today that Tesla just increased the FSD option to 10k, so I am glad that I just ordered my a couple of weeks ago.
cusetownusa
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by cusetownusa »

retire14 wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:55 pm I just ordered a Model Y. I decided to include the FSD not based on cost/benefits but more on why I wanted a Tesla in the first place. I want it because of its technology. And I want to grow with Tesla as it rolls out FSD software releases. I just read today that Tesla just increased the FSD option to 10k, so I am glad that I just ordered my a couple of weeks ago.
Let us know how you like the Y...while I probably wouldn't pay for the FSD, I am very interested in getting the Y when my car needs to be replaced. Unless there is a CyberSUV available by then.
fareastwarriors
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by fareastwarriors »

codoriti wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:46 pm "It may do the wrong thing at the worst time, click here to install." :|

Image
People read the warnings?
Shoot...

Where's my update!?
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
Boglelicious123
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Boglelicious123 »

Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am
Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
Boglelicious123
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Boglelicious123 »

Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am
Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by michaeljc70 »

I've never paid $8k to beta test anything. :shock:

The comments about Musk saying the price for FSD will keep going up are like a lot of things he says: suspect. The competition and market will dictate that more and more as EVs and FSD becomes more widely available through more competitors.
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Blueskies123
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Blueskies123 »

Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am
Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

Blueskies123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:48 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am
Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
Tesla’s currently hold their resale value very well. I personally think that will change.

Ten years from now, there will probably be an all electric Toyota Corolla selling for $25K that compares quite favorably with the model 3 I already own. Everything will get better and cheaper, and that won’t be good for resale value.
michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by michaeljc70 »

Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:54 am
Blueskies123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:48 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am

I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
Tesla’s currently hold their resale value very well. I personally think that will change.

Ten years from now, there will probably be an all electric Toyota Corolla selling for $25K that compares quite favorably with the model 3 I already own. Everything will get better and cheaper, and that won’t be good for resale value.
I believe he was referring to the FSD being removed if you sell the car to someone else because it is software (the part you pay extra for). They don't do that (generally). They have done it in the past but it was due to a complicated situation and eventually they restored it for the new owner. It had to do with an original owner having a problem, selling the car back to Tesla under a lemon law and then what happened with the car later. You can read about it here, but it is lengthy: https://thenextweb.com/cars/2020/02/13/ ... c-model-s/
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

michaeljc70 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:09 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:54 am
Blueskies123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:48 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
Tesla’s currently hold their resale value very well. I personally think that will change.

Ten years from now, there will probably be an all electric Toyota Corolla selling for $25K that compares quite favorably with the model 3 I already own. Everything will get better and cheaper, and that won’t be good for resale value.
I believe he was referring to the FSD being removed if you sell the car to someone else because it is software (the part you pay extra for). They don't do that. They have done it in the past but it was due to a complicated situation and eventually they restored it for the new owner. It had to do with an original owner having a problem, selling the car back to Tesla under a lemon law and then what happened with the car later. You can read about it here, but it is lengthy: https://thenextweb.com/cars/2020/02/13/ ... c-model-s/
Yep, I understood that part too, but didn’t directly address it. It has seemed to be a murky territory in the past. I won’t be surprised if Tesla doesn’t *add* FSD to some of its trade ins to juice sales or increase sales price.

Still though, I won’t be surprised if Toyota or somebody comes up with a significantly cheaper FSD alternative down the road, eroding any resale boost I might have gotten by buying FSD today for 8K.

(I’m secretly hoping Tesla gets desperate at some point and has a “flash sale”, letting me buy it for $2K or something).
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mmmodem
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by mmmodem »

If you look at Tesla's used inventory, all capable vehicles have FSD turned on. I suspect that's how Tesla recoups some of their costs since FSD hardware is included with all new vehicles whether one pays for it or not.

I have no issues with purchasing used so that will be my route of entry. I doubt a used Model 3 with FSD will be worth $10k more than one without.
Boglelicious123
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Boglelicious123 »

Blueskies123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:48 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am
Normchad wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:55 pm Sounds like they are considering offering this as a subscription. I would definitely be tempted if the price were reasonable.

Don’t want to commit 8K or 10K for it unless it’s awesome.
I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
You are wrong! You wanted me to say it...but really, if you sell your Tesla privately they won’t/can’t remove the FSD. Other car buyers like Carvana currently value FSD for re-sale as well.

If you do trade directly to Tesla it is true they won’t give you value on your FSD, but there are other avenues for you to get value on your FSD purchase
Jeff Albertson
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Jeff Albertson »

this Tesla SUV ran into a traffic barrier at 70mph while on Autopilot. how could this happen? there are 3 major contributing causes, and they're *fascinating*
https://twitter.com/TubeTimeUS/status/1 ... 6685782016
hightower
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by hightower »

alfaspider wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:50 am My take is that most of that stuff is worthless until you have true level 5 autonomy- like you can take a nap or send the car to a remote location with no driver. Even if FSD worked perfectly and fulfilled all promises, it doesn't really do anything for you if you still have to watch the road and be ready to take over at a moment's notice.

And that's not even getting into the absurdity of paying up front for a feature that does not exist and may not ever exist during your ownership.
My thoughts exactly. Also, I would be really worried about it from a liability standpoint. You know, even though Tesla warns you must keep your eyes on the road, etc. that there are going to be people who use it irresponsibly and drive around with it on, not paying attention to the road. You can imagine the lawsuits if they cause an accident and kill someone. And Tesla won't be showing up in court to defend their technology, they'll just say "we told you not to take your eyes off the road."
The tech is cool, I get why people are attracted to the idea of it, but I am in the camp that it's not safe yet and probably won't be for many, many years to come, if ever. So, I'm not about to drop $10k on top of an already very expensive purchase price for a car. FWIW, I have a model y on order right now. No FSD for me.
hightower
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by hightower »

hunoraut wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:08 am my 2nd visit to a supercharger, i had a guy brag to me unsolicited about how he defeats the driver-alertness alarm by tying a bag of coins to the steering wheel, so he can use his laptop and do emails on the freeway....
Yes, and there are probably thousands of idiots doing stuff like this already. I'm sure that's why Tesla installed interior cameras in all their cars, even though they haven't started using them yet, they are surely there to help them fight litigation when dumba**es like this start killing people on highways.
hightower
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by hightower »

Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:54 am
Blueskies123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:48 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:06 am
Normchad wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:43 am
Boglelicious123 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:19 am

I totally get not wanting to spend 8K or 10K on this...but I’m 100% confident this will be awesome at some point. Like everyone else I don’t know when that some point will happen (2 years or 10 years) but by all accounts the new beta that just dropped is a massive step-up in FSD ability
I completely agree that this will be 100% awesome. The new videos are awesome. My concern is laying $8K to add it to my current Tesla, and it doesn’t become truly awesome until I’ve sold mine and bought another....
One way to look at this is Elon has repeatedly said the price of FSD will only continue going up (he’s certainly backed that up). With a purchase of FSD for $8K your car immediately appreciates by $2K when the price goes up on Monday and the same goes for all future price increases...
.

Maybe not. If and when you sell the car you cannot transfer or keep the FSD. It is just money gone and the person that you sell the car to will have to pay the prevailing rate for FSD at that time. So it could be that as FSD prices go up your used car value will have to go down. Somebody please tell me I am wrong because it is the one thing holding me back from buying a Tesla with FSD.
Tesla’s currently hold their resale value very well. I personally think that will change.

Ten years from now, there will probably be an all electric Toyota Corolla selling for $25K that compares quite favorably with the model 3 I already own. Everything will get better and cheaper, and that won’t be good for resale value.
You are probably correct on that. Which would actually be a great sign of progress. 10 years ago I hadn't even heard of EVs. And now I've been driving one for the last 3 years.
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Nicolas
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Nicolas »

It’s just human nature that people aren’t going to be attentive with self driving turned on, how can they expect otherwise? The warnings aren’t going to stop that. People just naturally let their guard down. Nothing’s going to change that.
investor997
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by investor997 »

michaeljc70 wrote: Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:44 am I've never paid $8k to beta test anything. :shock:
This right here.

It's not Full Self Driving, nor will it ever be until the following happens:
1) Tesla pays for liability and collision insurance when the system is active
2) Tesla indemnifies the driver against traffic violations and other possible legal entanglements when the system is active
3) The system works on all paved roads, no questions asked.

We're years away from this taking place. Think of everything that needs to change from a traffic enforcement perspective (new laws, training for law enforcement, etc). Can you imagine what would happen if FSD did something funky and a cop having a bad day decided to pull you over?

When the day comes I can drive to a bar, get hammered, stumble back to my Tesla, get in the BACK SEAT and command it to drive me home safely without fear of getting a DUI, I will admit FSD lives up to its name.
michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by michaeljc70 »

This is not FSD, but the included Autopilot:

"General Motors’ Super Cruise system topped Consumer Reports testing of assisted driving technology, leaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/gms-sup ... sting.html

There is no guarantee Tesla will be even first with true FSD.
harikaried
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by harikaried »

michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:09 amleaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."
Curious how the article doesn't link to the actual report which says in terms of Capabilities and Performance:
"When it comes to lane keeping assist, Tesla did the best in our tests."
https://www.consumerreports.org/car-saf ... e-systems/

Autopilot lost points for allowing the driver to activate the feature off the highway.
lightheir
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by lightheir »

michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:09 am This is not FSD, but the included Autopilot:

"General Motors’ Super Cruise system topped Consumer Reports testing of assisted driving technology, leaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/gms-sup ... sting.html

There is no guarantee Tesla will be even first with true FSD.
Hah - Tesla Autopilot scored 9/10 for performance, while supercruise was 8/10.

Tesla was docted points due to Supercruise using a driver-facing camera to verify eyes on the road, vs Tesla using a steering wheel torque sensor.

Cadillac is also limited to pre-mapped highways, Tesla autopilot is not. That is a HUGE gap. In fact, per Ars technica, "Tesla got dinged for allowing the use of Autopilot in residential areas—areas where drivers need to pay especially close attention to avoid hitting pedestrians or other obstacles."

Honestly, I'd give Tesla the win outright for even accomplishing Autopilot at all in residential areas, given that Supercruise can't even do it at all.

Tesla still has a very large lead on its competitors in self-driving.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/re ... is-safest/
michaeljc70
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by michaeljc70 »

lightheir wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:26 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:09 am This is not FSD, but the included Autopilot:

"General Motors’ Super Cruise system topped Consumer Reports testing of assisted driving technology, leaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/gms-sup ... sting.html

There is no guarantee Tesla will be even first with true FSD.
Hah - Tesla Autopilot scored 9/10 for performance, while supercruise was 8/10.

Tesla was docted points due to Supercruise using a driver-facing camera to verify eyes on the road, vs Tesla using a steering wheel torque sensor.

Cadillac is also limited to pre-mapped highways, Tesla autopilot is not. That is a HUGE gap. In fact, per Ars technica, "Tesla got dinged for allowing the use of Autopilot in residential areas—areas where drivers need to pay especially close attention to avoid hitting pedestrians or other obstacles."

Honestly, I'd give Tesla the win outright for even accomplishing Autopilot at all in residential areas, given that Supercruise can't even do it at all.

Tesla still has a very large lead on its competitors in self-driving.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/re ... is-safest/
I don't own a Tesla (though I am considering one) and have zero interest in Cadillacs. I view CR as a fairly reputable source that I don't always agree with. The bigger point is Tesla has been selling this (FSD) for years and over promising and under delivering. Full autonomous driving is so far away that I wouldn't pay squat for the promise of it. If Tesla is calling it beta, that should tell you something.

I've heard Tesla has a big lead over other competitors in self driving also. However, given Musk's braggadocios personality, who knows what to believe. Other major automakers certainly have put big $$$ in to FSD but have certainly implemented much less in their production vehicles. Presumably you've heard of Waymo which is geared toward taxi type service and is a Google company. They could license their technology tomorrow to any automaker.
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Cycle
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Cycle »

According to consumer reports, Tesla's self driving is a distant second to the GM Super Cruise self driving capability. Note version tested with tesla was NOT full self driving mode beta. Anyways, looks like there is more than one game in town, which should accelerate development.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/consume ... 00591.html
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oragne lovre
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by oragne lovre »

michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:00 pm
lightheir wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:26 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:09 am This is not FSD, but the included Autopilot:

"General Motors’ Super Cruise system topped Consumer Reports testing of assisted driving technology, leaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/gms-sup ... sting.html

There is no guarantee Tesla will be even first with true FSD.
Hah - Tesla Autopilot scored 9/10 for performance, while supercruise was 8/10.

Tesla was docted points due to Supercruise using a driver-facing camera to verify eyes on the road, vs Tesla using a steering wheel torque sensor.

Cadillac is also limited to pre-mapped highways, Tesla autopilot is not. That is a HUGE gap. In fact, per Ars technica, "Tesla got dinged for allowing the use of Autopilot in residential areas—areas where drivers need to pay especially close attention to avoid hitting pedestrians or other obstacles."

Honestly, I'd give Tesla the win outright for even accomplishing Autopilot at all in residential areas, given that Supercruise can't even do it at all.

Tesla still has a very large lead on its competitors in self-driving.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/re ... is-safest/
I don't own a Tesla (though I am considering one) and have zero interest in Cadillacs. I view CR as a fairly reputable source that I don't always agree with. The bigger point is Tesla has been selling this (FSD) for years and over promising and under delivering. Full autonomous driving is so far away that I wouldn't pay squat for the promise of it. If Tesla is calling it beta, that should tell you something.

I've heard Tesla has a big lead over other competitors in self driving also. However, given Musk's braggadocios personality, who knows what to believe. Other major automakers certainly have put big $$$ in to FSD but have certainly implemented much less in their production vehicles. Presumably you've heard of Waymo which is geared toward taxi type service and is a Google company. They could license their technology tomorrow to any automaker.
You may get surprised what this Musk's braggadocios personality can do. His promises are usually slow in delivery but many of them have come true: online payment PayPal, resusable rockets landing on barges on open sea, first private company getting NASA astronauts to space station at cheaper price than other well-known companies, mass-production electric cars speeding faster than many brandname gas-powered muscle cars, etc. In other words, he does have a track record.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.
lightheir
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by lightheir »

Cycle wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:56 pm According to consumer reports, Tesla's self driving is a distant second to the GM Super Cruise self driving capability. Note version tested with tesla was NOT full self driving mode beta. Anyways, looks like there is more than one game in town, which should accelerate development.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/consume ... 00591.html
Did you even read my post above?

CR itself rates Tesla as outperforming everyone else on the actual 'self driving' portion.

The only reason it took 2nd is that it got dinged for using sensors on the steering wheel to see if you are paying attention as opposed to a camera system tracking your eyes.

AND it wasn't even the Tesla FSD that was used.

AND the Cadillac autopilot is only limited to premapped highways, whereas the (admittedly imperfect) FSD can be used on-and-off.

I'll criticize Tesla when it deserves it, and yes, one area it deserves critique is that the concept of true Autopilot with NO driver engagement has taken longer than Elon's hyped 'right around the corner' claims. But in terms of actual testing and results, I'd find the above caveats pretty game-breaking when comparing actual self-driving functionality.

It's like entering cars into a real-world self-driving competition, but then only limiting cars to specific roads they've optimally premapped. Then massively handicapping one by intentionally not using it's most recent update which is actually out-in-the-wild and being used in real-world. And then declaring a poorer performing one a winner by a 'large margin' because of something that has nothing to do with self-driving, and is a safety feature that is only debatably better, and technologically trivial to add on.

The fact that Tesla can even drive itself passably well off highways and through local roads, and nobody else can even do it and even outperforms them on highways without FSD, is a pretty telling of the real gap between Tesla and the others right now. Still, I'm rooting for others to catch up - my dream as is many, is to have cars drive themselves completely, and not have to pay a million dollars for it.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by michaeljc70 »

oragne lovre wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:05 am
michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:00 pm
lightheir wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:26 pm
michaeljc70 wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:09 am This is not FSD, but the included Autopilot:

"General Motors’ Super Cruise system topped Consumer Reports testing of assisted driving technology, leaving Tesla’s Autopilot “a distant second,” the consumer research nonprofit reported Wednesday."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/28/gms-sup ... sting.html

There is no guarantee Tesla will be even first with true FSD.
Hah - Tesla Autopilot scored 9/10 for performance, while supercruise was 8/10.

Tesla was docted points due to Supercruise using a driver-facing camera to verify eyes on the road, vs Tesla using a steering wheel torque sensor.

Cadillac is also limited to pre-mapped highways, Tesla autopilot is not. That is a HUGE gap. In fact, per Ars technica, "Tesla got dinged for allowing the use of Autopilot in residential areas—areas where drivers need to pay especially close attention to avoid hitting pedestrians or other obstacles."

Honestly, I'd give Tesla the win outright for even accomplishing Autopilot at all in residential areas, given that Supercruise can't even do it at all.

Tesla still has a very large lead on its competitors in self-driving.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/re ... is-safest/
I don't own a Tesla (though I am considering one) and have zero interest in Cadillacs. I view CR as a fairly reputable source that I don't always agree with. The bigger point is Tesla has been selling this (FSD) for years and over promising and under delivering. Full autonomous driving is so far away that I wouldn't pay squat for the promise of it. If Tesla is calling it beta, that should tell you something.

I've heard Tesla has a big lead over other competitors in self driving also. However, given Musk's braggadocios personality, who knows what to believe. Other major automakers certainly have put big $$$ in to FSD but have certainly implemented much less in their production vehicles. Presumably you've heard of Waymo which is geared toward taxi type service and is a Google company. They could license their technology tomorrow to any automaker.
You may get surprised what this Musk's braggadocios personality can do. His promises are usually slow in delivery but many of them have come true: online payment PayPal, resusable rockets landing on barges on open sea, first private company getting NASA astronauts to space station at cheaper price than other well-known companies, mass-production electric cars speeding faster than many brandname gas-powered muscle cars, etc. In other words, he does have a track record.
When a promise has a time component that you miss you didn't keep your promise.

In 2016 Musk said that every future Tesla vehicle would be capable of driving itself , and promised Tesla would complete a coast-to-coast trip without human intervention by the end of 2017. He also claimed Teslas would appreciate in value and owners could make all kinds of money using them as self driving taxis.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by lightheir »

I can't believe I'm getting sucked into a Tesla thread...I'm a fan, but def not a blind fanboy. If something better comes along, I'll root for them all the way.

That said, all you critics are so obsessed with his overpromises. Let's be real - yes, he overpromised, but yes, he has absolutely overdelivered compared to the competition. Guy has singlehandedly created a thriving EV market, built a company that is a real threat and not a niche, delivered hundreds of thousands of cars to super happy customers across the board, has a bright future, and all we can do is focus on his overpromises and say 'yeah, he's no good.' Just because he's overpromised (and not even by much) on his autodriving, which was and is already groundbreaking. We weren't even talking about self-driving cars AT ALL seriously until Tesla showed up.

Every good CEO will overpromise once in awhile. They have visions of a better, brighter future. It may or may not happen, but if they have a good track record of making good things happen (if Elon doesn't fit this bill, who else could - Tesla, SpaceX, Ebay, all succeeded despite record naysayers/shorters) , they are allowed to overpromise. In fact, I'd be worried if they DIDN'T overpromise once inawhile, as that shows lack of vision.

Now if Elon failed at all his ventures, that'd be a different story of a fraud. Clearly it's the complete opposite of that.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by BedHead2020 »

I have to chime in on the "overpromised" aspect of this thread. Yes, absolutely, Tesla has set lofty goals and in many instances fell short of the timing of reaching those goals. But that's the nature of extremely aggressive progress and visionary thinking. Study after study has shown that organizations that set extremely aggressive milestones and goals will achieve more even while falling short of interim and final milestones than organizations that set readily achieved, mediocre, milestones.

It's a sad fact, too, that in today's court of public opinion, a company that says "we will build and sell a million widgets in five years" but takes six years to do it is labeled a failure while a different company who promises and achieves "10,000 widgets in five years" is viewed a success.

To answer the original question, yes, I bought FSD back when it was $4k. I've enjoyed every minute of watching the technology mature in my hands via over the air updates. The lane control and automatic cruise control is a huge stress reliever on long trips and in stop-and-go traffic.

There are certainly people being stupid and irresponsible with their not-quite-self-driving cars but unfortunately there's no limit to the ways in which foolish and irresponsible people will abuse anything. Like someone said, the problem with making something fool-proof is that there's always a better fool waiting in the wings. Personally, I'm intelligent and responsible enough to read and understand the cautions from Tesla that the feature is not yet "full self-driving" and realize that I alone am responsible for the function of the vehicle. No, it's not actually fully self-driving yet. Sadly, many in our society today, both owners and observers, are lacking the common sense to make the distinction between a marketing term and reality. I don't expect that Apple is actually storing my data in a cloud; I don't think that there's actually a small janitor in my bottle of "Janitor in a Drum"; and I don't expect my Tesla to be fully self-driving (yet).
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Leif »

BedHead2020 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:32 pm
To answer the original question, yes, I bought FSD back when it was $4k. I've enjoyed every minute of watching the technology mature in my hands via over the air updates. The lane control and automatic cruise control is a huge stress reliever on long trips and in stop-and-go traffic.
I bought enhanced autopilot and FSD in 2016. I paid $3,000 for FSD. But the rub was to get FSD I needed to pay $5,000 for enhanced autopilot (now included with the base price). So $8,000 in total in 2016. Would I pay $5,000 for radar cruise control and lane keeping in 2016 by itself? The answer is no. But I had high expectations, at the time, for FSD. In October 2016 Tesla put out a video showing autopilot/FSD doing amazing things. Things that even today the car cannot do. Such as a person getting out of the car and the car looking for and finding a parking spot and then the car parallel parking itself. I figured, not having the benefit of hindsight, that they must be close, based on that video. Not only that, but Elon promised a FSD, coast to coast, by the end of 2017. I'm still waiting for that day to happen. I usually keep my cars for a long time. I'm hoping before I sell I get something like what I saw in their promo video

Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas - Oct. 2016
Last edited by Leif on Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by MarkerFM »

Leif wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:49 pm
BedHead2020 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:32 pm
To answer the original question, yes, I bought FSD back when it was $4k. I've enjoyed every minute of watching the technology mature in my hands via over the air updates. The lane control and automatic cruise control is a huge stress reliever on long trips and in stop-and-go traffic.
I bought enhanced autopilot and FSD in 2016. I paid $3,000 for FSD. But the rub was to get FSD I needed to pay $5,000 for enhanced autopilot (now included with the base price). So $8,000 in total in 2016. Would I pay $5,000 for radar cruise control and lane keeping in 2016 by itself? The answer is no. But I had high expectations, at the time, for FSD. In October 2016 Tesla put out a video showing autopilot/FSD doing amazing things. Things that even today the car cannot do. Such as a person getting out of the car and the car looking for and finding a parking spot and then the car parallel parking itself. I figured, not having the benefit of hindsight, that they must be close, based on that video. Not only that, but Elon promised a FSD, coast to coast, by the end of 2017. I'm still waiting for that day to happen. I usually keep my cars for a long time. I'm hoping before I sell I get something like what I saw in their promo video

Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas - Oct. 2016
And to think people were upset the Nikoa truck was filmed rolling downhill without a workable drivetrain!
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Leif »

A fascinating video, using a drone, following Tesla M3 using FSD beta. A few scary moments, but actually I was more worried for the drone following with a bunch of lines above the road. It gives me some hope.

Skydio following Tesla Model 3 FSD BETA 2020.40.8.11
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by UKFred »

A Tesla owner for the last month - For those who say that self driving is useless until it reaches level 5 full automation - don’t knock it until you try it. The current capabilities are pretty amazing and already useful. I was able to leave London after work on a Friday evening to visit my son in Oxford (about 80 miles away) and returning by about 11pm. The car drove itself for well over 90% of the distance and I wasn’t tired out when I was back home, as I would have been in a normal car after driving that distance (most of it in the dark) after work.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

UKFred wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:50 am A Tesla owner for the last month - For those who say that self driving is useless until it reaches level 5 full automation - don’t knock it until you try it. The current capabilities are pretty amazing and already useful. I was able to leave London after work on a Friday evening to visit my son in Oxford (about 80 miles away) and returning by about 11pm. The car drove itself for well over 90% of the distance and I wasn’t tired out when I was back home, as I would have been in a normal car after driving that distance (most of it in the dark) after work.
This has been my experience as well. It is especially good in heavy your traffic and stop and go highway driving..... I arrive feeling better, less tense, and less angry.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by justglassin »

To what extent is FSD dependent on lane/highway/street markings? That seems like a really problematic variable. I know my Honda's lane keeping assist seems to struggle in the rain at night when lane markings are masked by heavy rain and the reflection of head and tail lights.

Also, is the beta release feeding data back to the AI -- things like when the driver had to intervene, exceptions/deviation from what it thought it needed to do -- in real or near real time? If so, this is really compelling. But I'd also like to know how they settled on the cost and cost increase when having as many sensors (i.e., drivers with FSD enabled) out on the roads as possible seems to be THE critical path to seizing the advantage in autonomy.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by hunoraut »

I covered about 1000 kilometers flat over 12 hours today.

5 instances of phantom braking. About 15 times the warning "multiple cameras blocked or blinded. Clean cameras or wait for them to regain visibility".

Speed limit detection was about 70% effective.

The thing about computer automation is, it's great if it works all the time. If it works only a portion of the time, but you don't know when it fails, then you spend the entire time having to supervise it.

In which case, it is more annoying than doing the task yourself.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by harikaried »

justglassin wrote: Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:16 pmI'd also like to know how they settled on the cost and cost increase when having as many sensors (i.e., drivers with FSD enabled) out on the roads as possible seems to be THE critical path to seizing the advantage in autonomy.
Definitely unclear how the price increase was decided on, but the thought process seems to be along the lines of "FSD price increased by $1k for traffic light feature, and driving on city streets is significantly more than that, so double the increase to $2k."

As for the data collection bottleneck, there is indeed some value from knowing when a FSD owner disengages, but a lot of the Autopilot data collection stack is set up to work on all FSD capable vehicles even without Autopilot active. The software can get triggers, e.g., did a predicted behavior from half a second ago not match up with the current prediction or did the cameras see something "interesting," to decide when to send back data for Tesla to potentially use to improve for a future version. This means their bottleneck is actually getting as many vehicles on the road by delivering more vehicles independent of whether owners buy or skip $10k FSD software.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by TravelforFun »

Here is Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta’s performance in action.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/30/tesla-fu ... 5UCVvEUliE
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Leif »

TravelforFun wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:07 am Here is Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta’s performance in action.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/30/tesla-fu ... 5UCVvEUliE
Exactly the same video as my post above.
viewtopic.php?p=5575656#p5575656
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by nisiprius »

Leif wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:03 pm
TravelforFun wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:07 am Here is Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta’s performance in action.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/30/tesla-fu ... 5UCVvEUliE
Exactly the same video as my post above.
viewtopic.php?p=5575656#p5575656
I would like to know more about the "Skydio" drone, and why it wasn't having near-misses with trees, poles, wires, etc.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Slacker »

We just bought an option for a Cyber truck with FSD two weeks ago. We expect the delay to get our number to come up gives us enough time to see if we wish to keep FSD. It was still $8000 when we put in our pre-order. Hopefully the 2-3 years before our number comes up is enough time for us to learn if keeping FSD will be with it.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by windaar »

I asked an acquaintance, an engineer in the industry, when there will ever be a car that will be able to totally by itself drive me, at night and in a snowstorm, to my sister who lives 30 miles away through rural blacktop roads and finally down a series of dirt roads. He said the short answer was "never" and that the long answer was that it might happen when quantum computing is perfected and widely available.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by z0r »

windaar wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:00 pm I asked an acquaintance, an engineer in the industry, when there will ever be a car that will be able to totally by itself drive me, at night and in a snowstorm, to my sister who lives 30 miles away through rural blacktop roads and finally down a series of dirt roads. He said the short answer was "never" and that the long answer was that it might happen when quantum computing is perfected and widely available.
that's an increasingly common viewpoint, that true self driving that would have all of the characteristics of a "good" human driver, including the human understanding needed to handle things you've never seen before like a new type of construction, a weird game kids are playing partially obstructed, and all of the other edge cases which can't even really be called edge cases, since they're totally new so they can never be planned for ahead of time... that challenge is the same challenge as coming up with true artificial intelligence of the sort that would make most jobs obsolete

I think you can have that view, and also have the view that self driving can be made to work 99.99% of the time and achieve safety better than a good human driver, on average, even though it would still do totally brain dead and embarrassing/murderous things on occasion, it would just be made to do those brain dead things so infrequently that it would beat a good human on average. Can we accept that kind of self driving? because that's what we're going to get

(I don't mean the kind of "better than human" stats that tesla currently presents which are whole-cloth lies)
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Leif »

nisiprius wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:42 pm
Leif wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:03 pm
TravelforFun wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 12:07 am Here is Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta’s performance in action.
https://electrek.co/2020/10/30/tesla-fu ... 5UCVvEUliE
Exactly the same video as my post above.
viewtopic.php?p=5575656#p5575656
I would like to know more about the "Skydio" drone, and why it wasn't having near-misses with trees, poles, wires, etc.
I heard that some of the same people that worked on FSD at Tesla moved to the Skydio team. So via software they are avoiding objects. At first I thought the person controlling the drone had very impressive skills. And that may be the case. But the avoidance is from software. I have not gone to the makers website, but probably more info there.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by investor997 »

I'm 5 days into a 7 day rental of a new Model S Performance. It has the FSD option and the HW 3.0 computer. I normally drive a 2018 Model 3 (HW 2.5, Enhanced Autopilot, no FSD).

The only appreciable difference I've noticed with the newer hardware are the advanced visualizations on the driving display. The more advanced hardware runs a more sophisticated neural network. It's able to classify and visualize arrows painted on the ground (turn lanes), speed limit signs and red/green lights at intersections. It'll even sound a chime if you're the first car in line at a light when it turns green (hey, wake up, dude...). Other than that, the Autopilot function itself (Traffic Aware/Radar Cruise Control + Autosteer) performed no differently and/or better than the older hardware in my car. Enabling the "Navigate on Autopilot" option in the newer car was just as scary as before.

True "FSD" is a pipe dream. As for the Model S vs. the Model 3, I have plenty of thoughts on comparing the two but I'll save that for another thread...
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by mmmodem »

windaar wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:00 pm I asked an acquaintance, an engineer in the industry, when there will ever be a car that will be able to totally by itself drive me, at night and in a snowstorm, to my sister who lives 30 miles away through rural blacktop roads and finally down a series of dirt roads. He said the short answer was "never" and that the long answer was that it might happen when quantum computing is perfected and widely available.
Speaking as an engineer in the industry, I am wary of making absolute statements. While level 5 autonomous driving through unmarked private roads will be quite a ways off, the rate at which sensors and AI are improving, I am quite a bit more optimistic at feature complete full self driving as Musk describes it on public roads. Based on the little I know of quantum computing, I should think we'll have level 5 autonomous driving way before we can buy a quantum computer.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by BedHead2020 »

It's easy to point to edge cases like blinding snowstorms at night on an unmarked winding country road and argue that because an autonomous system can't handle such an edge case then the technology cannot come to a useful fruition in any reasonably foreseeable future. I'd argue that because there are quite a few humans who would be unwilling/unable to drive in such a circumstance that defining successful autonomous vehicles based upon every foreseeable edge case is a misuse of the criteria. A better questions asks, "When will autonomous vehicles be able to handle 99.9999%* of the driving situations with better than human performance?" That future is closer than we all think, I believe. Largely because of the vast amount of telemetry data being fed into Tesla's neural net.

*I guessed at the number of nines required here. But you get my point.
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by windaar »

BedHead2020 wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:12 pm I'd argue that because there are quite a few humans who would be unwilling/unable to drive in such a circumstance that defining successful autonomous vehicles based upon every foreseeable edge case is a misuse of the criteria.
In my state it gets dark early in the winter, it snows a lot, and there are a lot of dirt roads. What I described is common, and our non-self-driving cars navigate just fine. Will we just not be able to have cars in the future?
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Re: Tesla Full Self Driving Option

Post by Normchad »

windaar wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:42 pm
BedHead2020 wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:12 pm I'd argue that because there are quite a few humans who would be unwilling/unable to drive in such a circumstance that defining successful autonomous vehicles based upon every foreseeable edge case is a misuse of the criteria.
In my state it gets dark early in the winter, it snows a lot, and there are a lot of dirt roads. What I described is common, and our non-self-driving cars navigate just fine. Will we just not be able to have cars in the future?
I don't think they're going to take the steering wheel away any time soon. When it can't figure out what to do, you can just take over. Just like it does now.
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