wait for new toyota sienna?

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
Post Reply
Topic Author
mookie
Posts: 181
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:35 pm

wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by mookie »

I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
Frankieg48336
Posts: 52
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 11:38 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Frankieg48336 »

I had the same dilemma waiting on Honda Odyssey in 2016 waiting on a new model. I asked myself does it really matter its a van who do I really care?
older model cheaper to get.
I use Bluetooth and google apps for gps, music and entertainement
my child uses a tablet so who cares about infotainment system
will i resell or maintain and keep forever so who cares about future trade in or sale?

i bought the 2016 and just paid off early and had .9% interest on it the whole time.
White Oak
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:50 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by White Oak »

If it were me, I would wait. ~20 mpg versus ~30 mpg is a big improvement. There are a lot of improvements in creature comforts, as the old model is almost ten years old.

The one big downside is that the middle row isn't removable, which limits what you can haul.

We have an older Odyssey, and I'm hoping we can keep that going for another few years, at which point a used '21 Sienna would be on the short list.
notmyhand
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:43 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by notmyhand »

I'm debating myself. The current Sienna is ten years old so I'm leaning toward waiting but I'm also nervous to buy the first few of brand new model. Unfortunately I definitely cannot wait until next year so I'll be watching this thread.
czr
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:40 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by czr »

I think there's going to be a big premium with the new model with little room for discounts or negotiations. But the deal breaker will be lots of bugs and issues with first model year of new generation even from Toyota which will be covered by warranty but pain to go back and forth to dealer. The only good thing is new design and the scarcity but we're talking minivan here so the main purpose is people mover.
User avatar
mmmodem
Posts: 2333
Joined: Thu May 20, 2010 1:22 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by mmmodem »

If able, I almost always wait for the next model to come out before I make a decision. This applies to cars and electronic devices. Yes, the new model may have bugs but the evolutionary upgrades in safety and technology far outweighs the bugs. This isn't always true of course so sometimes, I buy the the previous the model at a significant discount because everyone wants the new one.

I bought the previous model Sentra for thousands off and a previous year iPad for half off this way. The new ones did not offer tangible benefits. I also bought the new model Civic and Prius because the new Civic engine was a revolutionary upgrade over the previous and the newer Prius came with backup cameras standard and improved headlights visibility. That was worth the cost despite a few bugs.
02nz
Posts: 6100
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:17 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by 02nz »

czr wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:55 pm But the deal breaker will be lots of bugs and issues with first model year of new generation even from Toyota which will be covered by warranty but pain to go back and forth to dealer.
We hear this a lot, but while not entirely without basis, it's also far from a deal-breaker:

- Toyota makes among the most reliable cars around, your odds with a first year of a redesign are probably better than with the last year of most other carmakers.

- The new platform the Sienna will be based on (TNGA) is actually very well-proven, it's used on most Toyota and Lexus cars introduced in the last 5 years.

- Manufacturers do make "running" changes in the middle of a model year if problems are discovered. If you can, perhaps don't buy the first batch of Siennas. But there's likely to be no difference in reliability between the last 2021 that rolls of the line and the first 2022, for example.

- You also have to look at what you gain. I think in this case the improvements appear to be more than enough to justify the slightly higher reliability risk.

OP, I would expect that the first-drive reviews should be out relatively soon (reviewers have probably already tested the Sienna and written the reviews, but there's typically an embargo date on which all the sites/publications will publish), so you don't need to wait long to see what the pros think of the new model.
User avatar
lthenderson
Posts: 5434
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:43 pm
Location: Iowa

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by lthenderson »

mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
I have a 2017 Sienna XLE AWD and love the thing. Unlike what someone mentioned above, the middle seats are easily removable and I can haul about five sheets of 3/4" plywood and still get the rear door shut. Anymore than that and the geometry of the center pillar between the front row seats and the angle of the door prevent the door from shutting all the way. It is the one major drawback the Sienna has compared to the Odyssey which I could haul a dozen sheets.

Personally, if would buy a 2020 model if you find one. Dealers are probably trying to clear inventory to make room for next year's model at this point so inventory will be getting scarce. If you find one though they are more likely to make a deal to clear it out. When the new ones come out, especially new models that are deemed desirable, deals are hard to come by. Also, new models sometimes have problems and are more likely to have recalls. Not necessarily a deal breaker but something to consider.
fleetwdl
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:59 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by fleetwdl »

The 2020 Sienna has a strong and very reliable 3.5 L naturally aspirated engine V-6. The 2021 will have a 2.5 four banger engine with two electric motors which all together crank out about 25 hp less than the 3.5 V-6. One small engine and two electric motors is a lot going on under the hood, vs. a proven stronger v-6 engine. If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little. Old gearheads are fond of saying "there is no substitute for cubic inches". My choice would be the 2020, but then again, I have been called "old school" more than once. Either way Toyota is the way to go, in my opinion.
02nz
Posts: 6100
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:17 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by 02nz »

fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
random_walker_77
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by random_walker_77 »

I wouldn't worry about the battery life. Toyota has probably the longest track record, and of all the prius and hybrid vehicles they've sold, most hit 150K miles without battery replacements. The biggest concerns for me are a) 1st model year and b) inability to remove middle seats. The fuel efficiency improvement is large, but for me personally, the cargo capacity is a really big perk and you lose a lot of that if you can't remove the middle seats. I'm hoping they fix that in the next few years, before my current Sienna wears out
Rxwolf
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:50 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Rxwolf »

I would not wait for "new" anything.

1. I bought the 2016 Honda Pilot--complete redesign ~ july 2015--Wife totaled car and needed one soon, hard to find the old pilot.
2. I regret the purchase. I should have gotten a Toyota Sienna, 4wd. I really wanted 4 wd for winter-mountain trips.

While I clearly think Toyota and Honda are great car companies, there is just so many things that could and will go wrong with a new version. I remember a report that new redesigns, on average, have more issues overall.

I have had to take the car back to dealership 3-4 times--manufact recall/request, 1. to verify that seatbelts were installed correctly (WOW), 2. update trans software, 3. safety system update

I will let someone else be the Guinea pig/lab rat for next car.

Sorry to rain on new car parade. I still have my pilot, will keep it for 10+ years, but I think I made a poor choice.
ScubaHogg
Posts: 762
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by ScubaHogg »

02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am
fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
“Unexpected Returns dominate the Expected Returns” - Ken French
02nz
Posts: 6100
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:17 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by 02nz »

ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am
fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
Which is not 6-10 years of driving for most people. And the battery and hybrid powertrain technology has only improved in the decade since your 2009 Prius was made.

And the fuel savings will pay off pretty quickly. The 2020 gets 21 MPG combined versus 33 MPG for the new model. By the time you drive for 160,000 miles, the 2021 will save almost 2800 gallons of gas, or about $5500 at $2/gallon.
Last edited by 02nz on Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Normchad
Posts: 1807
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2011 7:20 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Normchad »

Toyota is pretty amazing at getting things right the first time. I don’t like to buy the first model year if anything, but I wouldn’t have qualms about buying a first year Toyota.

No matter what you buy, you are going to get several safety recalls during its life. It’s not just a first year thing.

Minivans are awesome. Now you’ve got me wanting a new Sienna. :)
ScubaHogg
Posts: 762
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by ScubaHogg »

02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:30 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am
fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
Which is not 6-10 years of driving for most people. And the battery and hybrid powertrain technology has only improved in the decade since your 2009 Prius was made.

And the savings will pay off pretty quickly with the Sienna. The 2020 gets 21 MPG combined versus 33 MPG for the new model. By the time you drive either for 160,000 miles, you'll save almost 2800 gallons of gas, or about $5500 at $2/gallon.
I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.

FWIW, I also had the pack fail on a 2008 civic hybrid after 5 years.
“Unexpected Returns dominate the Expected Returns” - Ken French
JLJL
Posts: 484
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:10 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by JLJL »

White Oak wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:22 pm If it were me, I would wait. ~20 mpg versus ~30 mpg is a big improvement. There are a lot of improvements in creature comforts, as the old model is almost ten years old.

The one big downside is that the middle row isn't removable, which limits what you can haul.

We have an older Odyssey, and I'm hoping we can keep that going for another few years, at which point a used '21 Sienna would be on the short list.
wait... what?

Half the reason to get a van is so you can fit a 8x4 sheet of ply wood, or the like. This strikes me as crazy!
JLJL
Posts: 484
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2014 11:10 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by JLJL »

lthenderson wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:19 am
mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
I have a 2017 Sienna XLE AWD and love the thing. Unlike what someone mentioned above, the middle seats are easily removable and I can haul about five sheets of 3/4" plywood and still get the rear door shut. Anymore than that and the geometry of the center pillar between the front row seats and the angle of the door prevent the door from shutting all the way. It is the one major drawback the Sienna has compared to the Odyssey which I could haul a dozen sheets.

Personally, if would buy a 2020 model if you find one. Dealers are probably trying to clear inventory to make room for next year's model at this point so inventory will be getting scarce. If you find one though they are more likely to make a deal to clear it out. When the new ones come out, especially new models that are deemed desirable, deals are hard to come by. Also, new models sometimes have problems and are more likely to have recalls. Not necessarily a deal breaker but something to consider.
haha ok never mind I didn't read enough.
retire57
Posts: 637
Joined: Fri Oct 28, 2016 3:03 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by retire57 »

I was thrilled when Toyota announced that the Sienna redesign will be offered as a hybrid. Until I read the press releases and discovered that the 2nd row seats are neither foldable nor removable (thanks to the air bag configuration). Deal-breaker. :annoyed
User avatar
lthenderson
Posts: 5434
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:43 pm
Location: Iowa

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by lthenderson »

JLJL wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:48 pm
lthenderson wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:19 am
mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
I have a 2017 Sienna XLE AWD and love the thing. Unlike what someone mentioned above, the middle seats are easily removable and I can haul about five sheets of 3/4" plywood and still get the rear door shut. Anymore than that and the geometry of the center pillar between the front row seats and the angle of the door prevent the door from shutting all the way. It is the one major drawback the Sienna has compared to the Odyssey which I could haul a dozen sheets.

Personally, if would buy a 2020 model if you find one. Dealers are probably trying to clear inventory to make room for next year's model at this point so inventory will be getting scarce. If you find one though they are more likely to make a deal to clear it out. When the new ones come out, especially new models that are deemed desirable, deals are hard to come by. Also, new models sometimes have problems and are more likely to have recalls. Not necessarily a deal breaker but something to consider.
haha ok never mind I didn't read enough.
We are apparently talking apples and oranges. 2020 models the middle seats are removable. 2021 hybrid model they apparently aren't. That would be a deal breaker for me too.
ncbill
Posts: 961
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2008 4:03 pm
Location: Western NC

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by ncbill »

ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:30 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am
fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
Which is not 6-10 years of driving for most people. And the battery and hybrid powertrain technology has only improved in the decade since your 2009 Prius was made.

And the savings will pay off pretty quickly with the Sienna. The 2020 gets 21 MPG combined versus 33 MPG for the new model. By the time you drive either for 160,000 miles, you'll save almost 2800 gallons of gas, or about $5500 at $2/gallon.
I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.

FWIW, I also had the pack fail on a 2008 civic hybrid after 5 years.
But refurbished Prius battery packs are reasonably priced:

https://greenbeanbattery.com/5-year-ful ... d-battery/
ScubaHogg
Posts: 762
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by ScubaHogg »

ncbill wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:48 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:30 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am

This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
Which is not 6-10 years of driving for most people. And the battery and hybrid powertrain technology has only improved in the decade since your 2009 Prius was made.

And the savings will pay off pretty quickly with the Sienna. The 2020 gets 21 MPG combined versus 33 MPG for the new model. By the time you drive either for 160,000 miles, you'll save almost 2800 gallons of gas, or about $5500 at $2/gallon.
I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.

FWIW, I also had the pack fail on a 2008 civic hybrid after 5 years.
But refurbished Prius battery packs are reasonably priced:

https://greenbeanbattery.com/5-year-ful ... d-battery/
I actually got a OEM one from Toyota for a decent price. I’m not saying don’t get a hybrid, but I’d be skeptical of the manufacturer claiming you won’t have to replace the pack if they don’t back it up with a very long / lifetime warranty.

A new pack plus a, presumably, higher initial cost definitely eats into the gas savings.
“Unexpected Returns dominate the Expected Returns” - Ken French
sd323232
Posts: 831
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by sd323232 »

mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
yes! the 2021 edition will worth it
Helo80
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Helo80 »

ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.

FWIW, I also had the pack fail on a 2008 civic hybrid after 5 years.

Toyota makes the best hybrid cars on the planet. Your poor experience with Honda has no bearing on this thread.

And yes, time continues to show that Toyota has a superior system and TOYOTA hybrids now come with a 10y/150k mile warranty.

EDIT: for clarification
Last edited by Helo80 on Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Helo80
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Helo80 »

02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:23 am
czr wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:55 pm But the deal breaker will be lots of bugs and issues with first model year of new generation even from Toyota which will be covered by warranty but pain to go back and forth to dealer.
We hear this a lot, but while not entirely without basis, it's also far from a deal-breaker:

- Toyota makes among the most reliable cars around, your odds with a first year of a redesign are probably better than with the last year of most other carmakers.

- The new platform the Sienna will be based on (TNGA) is actually very well-proven, it's used on most Toyota and Lexus cars introduced in the last 5 years.

- Manufacturers do make "running" changes in the middle of a model year if problems are discovered. If you can, perhaps don't buy the first batch of Siennas. But there's likely to be no difference in reliability between the last 2021 that rolls of the line and the first 2022, for example.

- You also have to look at what you gain. I think in this case the improvements appear to be more than enough to justify the slightly higher reliability risk.

OP, I would expect that the first-drive reviews should be out relatively soon (reviewers have probably already tested the Sienna and written the reviews, but there's typically an embargo date on which all the sites/publications will publish), so you don't need to wait long to see what the pros think of the new model.
You can lead a BH to water....


(Note: I agree with all of your points above).
ScubaHogg
Posts: 762
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 3:02 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by ScubaHogg »

Helo80 wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:29 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.

FWIW, I also had the pack fail on a 2008 civic hybrid after 5 years.

Your poor experience with Honda has no bearing on this thread.
That was just an aside. Most of what I wrote was in regards to my Toyota Prius (which I like). If the new hybrids come with a 10 year/150k warranty, I personally would assume I’ll need to replace the pack shortly after. Might not need to, but if there were zero to no chance Toyota could back it up with a longer or lifetime warranty.

I’m confused how why folks seem to be taking “yeah, these packs do fail sometimes” so strongly. It’s just a piece of equipment with still relatively new technology. It’d be surprising if it didn’t fail. But just pretending they don’t doesn’t make it true.
“Unexpected Returns dominate the Expected Returns” - Ken French
User avatar
RootSki
Posts: 516
Joined: Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:52 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by RootSki »

Has Toyota solved their battery shortage problem yet? I remember reading that they are having trouble fulfilling RAV4 Hybrid orders due to lack of batteries, and they orders they are taking are at or over msrp.
OldBallCoach
Posts: 396
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:22 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by OldBallCoach »

Personally I would try and find a CPO 18 or 19 and see if it the savings is worth it....but that V6 toyota drive train is sure hard to beat. I have a few of my colleages that have that van and they love it. AWD is a great option too if you live in an area that gets some weather.
random_walker_77
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by random_walker_77 »

ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm I’m sure they have improved, but We can’t say that people won’t have to replace the battery packs within 10 years if we just dismiss 10 year old hybrids because “the packs have improved.” Only time can say for sure if they have truly improved longevity wise.
Ultimately, time is the final test. There is such a thing as accelerated lifespan testing, typically tested at higher temperatures which accelerates the rate of decay by an approximately known factor. Even then, you get some batteries that are better than others, and it can be hard to tease out that issue that affects 1% of parts. I'm in a different industry, but we'd always find something new and annoying to track down once we started limited production, where you finally start seeing those relatively-rare issues surface.
ScubaHogg wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:41 am That was just an aside. Most of what I wrote was in regards to my Toyota Prius (which I like). If the new hybrids come with a 10 year/150k warranty, I personally would assume I’ll need to replace the pack shortly after. Might not need to, but if there were zero to no chance Toyota could back it up with a longer or lifetime warranty.
That's a very conservative approach, but fine. Just keep in mind that it's not all-or-nothing. There will be a rate of failure, and to some extent it's going to depend on your luck.
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:37 pm I’m confused how why folks seem to be taking “yeah, these packs do fail sometimes” so strongly. It’s just a piece of equipment with still relatively new technology. It’d be surprising if it didn’t fail. But just pretending they don’t doesn’t make it true.
Car and Driver notes that a prius will probably last you 200K miles. https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a ... tery-life/
This article quotes consumer reports reporting a mixed 5% failure rate among gen1 prius and gen2 prius, dropping closer to 0.1% among the later gen2 prius. Honda civic hybrids were more like 20% (!): https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2016/ ... %20hybrids.

Note that the toyota hybrid systems predominately use NiMH batteries (90's technology). So they don't have battery supply issues on their hybrids, except for their plug-in hybrids, which use Lithium-ion batteries. Those have more of a supply issue. Toyota has a long track record of being both pretty conservative and focused on quality. No, they're not perfect, but I think they're likely to do a lot of testing before rolling something out to the masses.
White Oak
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:50 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by White Oak »

RootSki wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:51 am Has Toyota solved their battery shortage problem yet? I remember reading that they are having trouble fulfilling RAV4 Hybrid orders due to lack of batteries, and they orders they are taking are at or over msrp.
Are you thinking of the RAV4 Prime? That is being released this fall and will have limited production this year and next.

The non-plugin RAV4 hybrid has been available for years, and I don't think there are any big supply limitations with that one.
lazydavid
Posts: 3548
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:37 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by lazydavid »

I would be leery about the 2021 for two main reasons, both of which have already been mentioned:

1. Middle seats not removable. This takes a lot of the utility out of a minivan. May not be a dealbreaker for everyone, but certainly a negative point.
2. Hybrid-only. I have no concerns here about reliability/longevity, but rather power. This is the hybrid 4-cylinder from the RAV4, which is significantly smaller and over a thousand pounds lighter than an empty Sienna, but still pretty slow. Now, a minivan doesn't have to be a rocketship, but load that already-heavier minivan (now an additional ~350 lbs heavier due to the hybrid system) up with 4 or 5 passengers and all their stuff for a long trip, and that powertrain is going to struggle, especially going up hills.
White Oak
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:50 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by White Oak »

White Oak wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:41 am
RootSki wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:51 am Has Toyota solved their battery shortage problem yet? I remember reading that they are having trouble fulfilling RAV4 Hybrid orders due to lack of batteries, and they orders they are taking are at or over msrp.
Are you thinking of the RAV4 Prime? That is being released this fall and will have limited production this year and next.

The non-plugin RAV4 hybrid has been available for years, and I don't think there are any big supply limitations with that one.
I was doing some more searching, and I do see some articles from last year about delays for the normal RAV4 hybrid, and one article from Australia from this year. Maybe someone else knows if that is still an issue.
White Oak
Posts: 129
Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:50 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by White Oak »

lazydavid wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:52 am 2. Hybrid-only. I have no concerns here about reliability/longevity, but rather power.
This is a good point. The numbers are 296 hp versus 243 hp.
FoolStreet
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:18 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by FoolStreet »

mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?
I would wait. Most bogleheads would keep a car like this for a long time and so you would be conscious of your eco footprint for the next 10-20 years. Consider that the car will be in high demand (the rav4 hybrid is/was), so find a no BS dealer (through costco?) and put down a $500 deposit and get a reservation now. Then, when it comes in, you might pay a couple dollars higher than the old model, but be happy its new and will have great gas mileage over many years with high resale value when you are done with hit.
FoolStreet
Posts: 1113
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:18 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by FoolStreet »

lazydavid wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:52 am I would be leery about the 2021 for two main reasons, both of which have already been mentioned:

1. Middle seats not removable. This takes a lot of the utility out of a minivan. May not be a dealbreaker for everyone, but certainly a negative point.
2. Hybrid-only. I have no concerns here about reliability/longevity, but rather power. This is the hybrid 4-cylinder from the RAV4, which is significantly smaller and over a thousand pounds lighter than an empty Sienna, but still pretty slow. Now, a minivan doesn't have to be a rocketship, but load that already-heavier minivan (now an additional ~350 lbs heavier due to the hybrid system) up with 4 or 5 passengers and all their stuff for a long trip, and that powertrain is going to struggle, especially going up hills.
The rav4 hybrid actually has *more* power than the ICE version because it has the extra battery drivetrain, and 4wd. I assume Toyota would do the same for the new minivan, but worth checking.
lazydavid
Posts: 3548
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2016 1:37 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by lazydavid »

FoolStreet wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:52 pm The rav4 hybrid actually has *more* power than the ICE version because it has the extra battery drivetrain, and 4wd. I assume Toyota would do the same for the new minivan, but worth checking.
Yes, it has 219 hp, vs. 203 hp from the 4-cylinder non-hybrid. Both versions are adequate, but not super impressive. Which is fine, as the Rav4 is not supposed to be a racecar either. But they are taking that exact drivetrain and putting it in the far-heavier and far more likely to be heavily loaded Sienna, replacing the current V6 that makes 296 hp. That's a HUGE deficit.
tdmp
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:12 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by tdmp »

02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:30 pm
ScubaHogg wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:26 pm
02nz wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:00 am
fleetwdl wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:49 am If you keep your cars for 6-10 years, which is very doable with most Toyotas, you will be replacing the hybrid battery for a couple thousand $, which will cut into that saved gas mileage a little.
This is simply incorrect. There are Prius owners who have gone 200K+ miles without needing to replace the battery. Battery degradation is, for all practical purposes, a non-issue with hybrids. And Toyota's hybrid system is especially well-proven.
I had to replace my 2009 Prius batteries last year at about ~160,000 miles. My research indicated it happened to a fair number of people.
Which is not 6-10 years of driving for most people. And the battery and hybrid powertrain technology has only improved in the decade since your 2009 Prius was made.

And the fuel savings will pay off pretty quickly. The 2020 gets 21 MPG combined versus 33 MPG for the new model. By the time you drive for 160,000 miles, the 2021 will save almost 2800 gallons of gas, or about $5500 at $2/gallon.
Toyota have over 2 decades experience with hybrid technology. I wouldn't worry much about the hybrid system. As mentioned already, only small percentage fail. A few of advantage that hybrid battery provides that hasn't been mentioned that can save money in the long term.
1) regenerative braking: so less use of friction brakes...so less wear and tear of brake pads...so don't have to change as often
2) if similar to prius hybrid system, then sienna probably don't have an alternator : the hybrid battery will charge the 12 v battery...so don't have problem with alternator breaking down.
-I would wait for the 2021 Sienna.
Helo80
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Helo80 »

ScubaHogg wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:41 am I’m confused how why folks seem to be taking “yeah, these packs do fail sometimes” so strongly. It’s just a piece of equipment with still relatively new technology. It’d be surprising if it didn’t fail. But just pretending they don’t doesn’t make it true.


Yes, you're absolutely right the packs will fail. However, Toyota is exceptionally good with making quality packs. Whether that's from not overloading the packs through their life (e.g. artificially keeping them from fully depleting and load balancing the cells during the life) or what, Toyota does make a superior system. While I agree, a failed pack after 5-10 years can be an added cost to any car owner, I stand by that Toyota makes a superior hybrid battery system. I heard one caller to a local radio show that had 350k miles on her original, 3rd gen prius battery. I'm not saying that's typical, but it also does not surprise me. Maybe that's confirmation bias. IDK.

The same goes for Tesla. I have issues with the way Musk represents the company (he basically talks out his butt and makes a ton of promises he cannot always keep), his battery packs seem to be holding solid after tens and hundreds of thousands of miles put on his Tesla. If I'm not mistaken, there's a place on the dashboard or way to see battery cell degradation, and honestly, Tesla's are pretty good after years and miles. Unfortunately, Nissan is struggling in this area from what I've read.

I know Honda, Hyundai, Ford, and others have hybrids.... I don't feel comfortable recommending those systems for people planning on owning those cars past 10years/100k miles.
Helo80
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Helo80 »

RootSki wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:51 am Has Toyota solved their battery shortage problem yet? I remember reading that they are having trouble fulfilling RAV4 Hybrid orders due to lack of batteries, and they orders they are taking are at or over msrp.
I think that you're thinking Rav4 Prime. AFAIK, that's going to be a limited market model. IOW -- some BHs wont' be able to purchase the vehicle at any price from their local Toyota dealer.
Helo80
Posts: 1913
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:47 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Helo80 »

White Oak wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:41 am The non-plugin RAV4 hybrid has been available for years, and I don't think there are any big supply limitations with that one.


Agreed --- Rav4 regular is their bread and butter and the top selling SUV in the country. I think it falls after F-150 and GM's truck.
newyorker
Posts: 240
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by newyorker »

mookie wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:43 pm I'm in the market for a new minivan with leather seating, leaning towards the Sienna XLE (highest rated in Consumer Reports). The 2021, a redesign which will be a hybrid, is coming out in a few months. Should I wait for it?



No brainer. Wait.
james865
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:32 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by james865 »

Re-upping this thread from July to see if there are any new BH-related comments about the 2021 Sienna. I love the thought of having a van, but it’d be my wife’s daily driver and I’m having a hard time getting her on board (2 young kids, dog, currently in an Outback which I would start driving).

However, SUVs are looking more like vans and vans are looking more like SUVs. The new Sienna almost seems to bridge the gap.

Has anybody been able to look inside the Sienna? Any word on when it’ll be available at the dealership to test drive? Has anybody committed to purchase?

The only slightly negative feature that I’ve seen so far is the 2nd row seats that can’t be removed.
notmyhand
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 7:43 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by notmyhand »

james865 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:54 am Re-upping this thread from July to see if there are any new BH-related comments about the 2021 Sienna. I love the thought of having a van, but it’d be my wife’s daily driver and I’m having a hard time getting her on board (2 young kids, dog, currently in an Outback which I would start driving).

However, SUVs are looking more like vans and vans are looking more like SUVs. The new Sienna almost seems to bridge the gap.

Has anybody been able to look inside the Sienna? Any word on when it’ll be available at the dealership to test drive? Has anybody committed to purchase?

The only slightly negative feature that I’ve seen so far is the 2nd row seats that can’t be removed.
Sounds like they are having some sourcing problems. The top trim was supposed to come with a fridge and a vacuum and I don't believe either will make it into the initial release from video reviews I'm seeing. Makes me concerned about what else is going to be cut initially. Between this and the seats not being removable, I'm contemplating looking at the Pacifica but I wish the price was lower.
Django Ii
Posts: 4
Joined: Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:04 am

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by Django Ii »

The sales manager at my local Toyota dealer in SW Florida recently emailed me that Toyota has not announced a release date for the new Seinna. Like others, I'll need to see how much cargo room there is with the non-removable 2nd row seats moved all the way forward, and how it accelerates before making a commitment.
random_walker_77
Posts: 1294
Joined: Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

Re: wait for new toyota sienna?

Post by random_walker_77 »

notmyhand wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:59 pm
james865 wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:54 am Re-upping this thread from July to see if there are any new BH-related comments about the 2021 Sienna. I love the thought of having a van, but it’d be my wife’s daily driver and I’m having a hard time getting her on board (2 young kids, dog, currently in an Outback which I would start driving).

However, SUVs are looking more like vans and vans are looking more like SUVs. The new Sienna almost seems to bridge the gap.

Has anybody been able to look inside the Sienna? Any word on when it’ll be available at the dealership to test drive? Has anybody committed to purchase?

The only slightly negative feature that I’ve seen so far is the 2nd row seats that can’t be removed.
Sounds like they are having some sourcing problems. The top trim was supposed to come with a fridge and a vacuum and I don't believe either will make it into the initial release from video reviews I'm seeing. Makes me concerned about what else is going to be cut initially. Between this and the seats not being removable, I'm contemplating looking at the Pacifica but I wish the price was lower.
The Pacifica has good crash test ratings, and their plug-in hybrid looks intriguing. However, I'm scared by their reliability ratings, as well as Chrysler's general reputation:
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/the-2020-c ... -category/
"If you check Consumer Reports, the 2020 Chrysler Pacifica currently has the lowest possible reliability rating. In fact, the only Pacifica that doesn’t have the lowest rating is the model from 2019."
The plug-in hybrid might be even worse though. Car and Driver deemed the plug-in hybrid much more troublesome than the regular Pacifica, though Consumer Reports isn't so fond of the regular Pacifica as per the link above

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a2 ... liability/
"Whereas the regular Pacifica was innovative and mostly trouble-free during that period, we found the hybrid to be frequently irritating and occasionally problematic."
Post Reply