Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
User avatar
Topic Author
gwe67
Posts: 257
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2013 9:52 pm

Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by gwe67 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm

We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
Support this site with a purchase thru Amazon: | http://www.amazon.com/s/?search-alias=aps&tag=bogleheads.org-20&field-keywords=Bogleheads

User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 1082
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by mrspock » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:36 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
$100... bail. Even if you were super low risk (25 year old olympian) and 100% immune, the potential of an utter fiasco to get off the ship isn't worth it IMHO. I can barely stand having to be cooped up in my house with occasional bike rides around the neighborhood, I can't even imagine being forced to stay in a tiny cruise ship cabin 24x7. Hard pass.

gtd98765
Posts: 624
Joined: Sun Jan 08, 2017 4:15 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by gtd98765 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:41 pm

A Post review of cruise line statements, government announcements and media reports found that the coronavirus infected passengers and crew on at least 55 ships that sailed in the waters off nearly every continent, about a fifth of the total global fleet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... Fstory-ans

jebmke
Posts: 10912
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm
Location: Delmarva Peninsula

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by jebmke » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:42 pm

I would cancel as fast as I could.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

Silk McCue
Posts: 4712
Joined: Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:11 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Silk McCue » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:43 pm

We love to cruise and were supposed to be on one earlier this month. We have a small deposit on a 14 day New Zealand cruise next January. With that said, there is no way I would get on a cruise ship this year. Too much downside risk.

I would choose a beach vacation at a nice hotel or resort. Much easier to get home to if someone gets sick.

We will decide by October regarding the January cruise before a big chunk of change is due.

Cheers

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 8371
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by whodidntante » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm

mrspock wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:36 pm
gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
$100... bail. Even if you were super low risk (25 year old olympian) and 100% immune, the potential of an utter fiasco to get off the ship isn't worth it IMHO. I can barely stand having to be cooped up in my house with occasional bike rides around the neighborhood, I can't even imagine being forced to stay in a tiny cruise ship cabin 24x7. Hard pass.
Seems logical.

livesoft
Posts: 72099
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by livesoft » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm

Bail.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

Chuck107
Posts: 215
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:47 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Chuck107 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
Seriously? I would never go one a cruise before, now? Not if it were free.

02nz
Posts: 4953
Joined: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:17 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by 02nz » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:46 pm

Read some news articles of cruise ships that were at sea for weeks with no place to dock. This is a no-brainer.

User avatar
LiveSimple
Posts: 1637
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:55 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by LiveSimple » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:48 pm

Just bail please !!! $100 is nothing...

aarondearu
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:40 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by aarondearu » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:50 pm

Cancel and purchase Carnival corp bonds instead maturing Oct 2020 @ 10% YTW.
Then take the proceeds and go on a better cruise next year.

CUSIP 143658BA9

User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3433
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Doom&Gloom » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:51 pm

Not even a close decision.

Take the first exit on the left.

stan1
Posts: 8540
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:35 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by stan1 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:53 pm

I think there is a good chance this cruise in July will be cancelled. Why do you need to act now? If they cancel it you should get your $100 deposit back.

I would not give them more money though. Are they insisting that you make a final payment at this time?

gclancer
Posts: 695
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:34 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by gclancer » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:53 pm

Bail. I’d say there’s even a chance they’ll end up canceling the cruise and will be forced to refund the $100 by some government agency.

lws6772
Posts: 478
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:14 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by lws6772 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:55 pm

Chuck107 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm
gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
Seriously? I would never go one a cruise before, now? Not if it were free.
No doubt, they would have to pay me, more than they could afford I'm betting. :D

User avatar
climber2020
Posts: 1474
Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:06 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by climber2020 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:58 pm

No go. Get your money back minus the $100 deposit, and if things miraculously resolve by late July, you can likely re-book the same exact cruise at a cheaper price because no one will be wanting to go.

bayview
Posts: 2219
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2012 7:05 pm
Location: WNC

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by bayview » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:07 pm

Holy cow, no way.

Even if you didn’t get COVID-19, you’d probably get norovirus. :P
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri

TravelGeek
Posts: 3630
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2014 3:23 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by TravelGeek » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:20 pm

I posted the link in another thread about cruising. I think the current CDC ban on cruises touching US waters and ports ends July 24. Could be ended earlier by the Sec of HHS. Or extended. The latter seems more likely.

If you don’t have to pay more funds now, I would do ... nothing ... and wait for the cruise to cancel.

If you have to make a decision now, can you reschedule the cruise for next year without paying extra funds? If so, I would do that.

If the cruise is in fact going as scheduled and your choices are go or lose $100, I would not go (and for the record, I am not a never-cruiser).

User avatar
Cyclesafe
Posts: 1133
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 1:03 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Cyclesafe » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:22 pm

Your best bet is to plan not to go but don't cancel as the cruise line may be obligated to offer you a full refund of your deposit if THEY cancel. To date, I've had nearly $13k refunded for April and July departures. Still working on the last couple hundred dollars. I've been working on this since February and it's been tough slogging for sure. These weren't cruises, however, as I had my fill after a couple of disappointments. Now, in addition to having a very lousy time, to also be marooned onboard or even die? No way in this life.
"Plans are useless; planning is indispensable.” (Dwight Eisenhower) | "Man plans, God laughs" (Yiddish proverb)

Teague
Posts: 1999
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:15 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Teague » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:32 pm

No go, no way, nohow. I'm tempted to send you the hundred bucks myself to make sure.
Semper Augustus

Katietsu
Posts: 3514
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 1:48 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Katietsu » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:40 pm

Are you aware the CDC issued a ban that would have extended no sail orders until almost September? For unknown reasons, that announcement was removed from the CDC website and replaced with the July date, I hope this is not against forum rules, but I suspect the first date came out of a recommendation from of the career scientists.

User avatar
tennisplyr
Posts: 2596
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:53 pm
Location: Sarasota, FL

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by tennisplyr » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:44 pm

Only my opinion but July seems too soon for large crowds in close spaces.
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

regularguy455
Posts: 180
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by regularguy455 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:47 pm

I would not go until there is a handle on COVID. Either an effective treatment or vaccine. IMO, you seriously rolling the dice for a vacation.

Trader Joe
Posts: 1787
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:38 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Trader Joe » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:50 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
I would cancel right now.

ARoseByAnyOtherName
Posts: 1000
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:03 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:50 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
What could go wrong?

Run away as fast as you can. Bail and thank the heavens you’re only out $100.

Honestly I think everyone posting in this thread would PAY YOU $5 to not go. I would. You’d cover most of the deposit right there.

FoolMeOnce
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:16 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by FoolMeOnce » Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:57 pm

Don't go.

But if you do, keep a running diary here for us.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 2229
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by GoldenFinch » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:02 pm

Be smart about this decision. Do not go. Cancel.

Montgomery
Posts: 32
Joined: Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:11 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Montgomery » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:03 pm

Been on over 20 cruises and only in my early 50’s. Most stereotypes about cruising are not correct, I’m a big fan.

Having said all of this, there is no way I would do it in the next 120 days. Being on a cruise right now runs the risk of not being in control of how and where you quarantine if it comes to that.

I’d get my money back pronto.
Last edited by Montgomery on Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Godot
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:44 pm
Location: Little Beirut

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Godot » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:05 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
N-e-g-a-t-o-r-y.

If the cruise is cancelled, do you get the deposit back?
Estragon: I can't go on like this. | Vladimir: That's what you think. | ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

fatcoffeedrinker
Posts: 213
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:03 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:08 pm

mrspock wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:36 pm
gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
$100... bail. Even if you were super low risk (25 year old olympian) and 100% immune, the potential of an utter fiasco to get off the ship isn't worth it IMHO. I can barely stand having to be cooped up in my house with occasional bike rides around the neighborhood, I can't even imagine being forced to stay in a tiny cruise ship cabin 24x7. Hard pass.
Totally agree. Would not want to be quarantined on a cruise ship sailing from port to port hoping someone would let us dock and get off.

User avatar
galawdawg
Posts: 847
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:59 pm
Location: Georgia

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by galawdawg » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:11 pm

Food for thought as you decide:

Out of 2,592 total documented COVID-19 cases on cruise ships, Carnival Corp. was responsible for 1,740 of those cases.

Of those 2,592 COVID-19 cases, 1,394 cases were passengers (the remainder were crew). Carnival Corp. was responsible for 1,158 of them.

There were 65 deaths on cruise ships due to COVID-19. Carnival Corp. was responsible for 53 of those.

Still want to cruise on a Carnival Corp. ship?? I'm not bashing cruises or cruise lines. But, if you want to cruise, you may want to look at other brands with much better track records.

(Source, Miami Herald report tracking COVID cases on cruise ships, April 24, 2020)

User avatar
ResearchMed
Posts: 10276
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by ResearchMed » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:20 pm

fatcoffeedrinker wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:08 pm
mrspock wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:36 pm
gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
$100... bail. Even if you were super low risk (25 year old olympian) and 100% immune, the potential of an utter fiasco to get off the ship isn't worth it IMHO. I can barely stand having to be cooped up in my house with occasional bike rides around the neighborhood, I can't even imagine being forced to stay in a tiny cruise ship cabin 24x7. Hard pass.
Totally agree. Would not want to be quarantined on a cruise ship sailing from port to port hoping someone would let us dock and get off.
This isn't even the worst case/nightmare.

What IS the real nightmare, and what HAS happened, is to be quarantined on board, sailing around hoping to find a port that would accept you... and while stuck onboard, the plague continues to spread (and some people die)... and you *still* cannot get off :shock:

THAT is the true nightmare, and quite a few people experienced just that.

We love cruising, and there is NO way we would get on a cruise ship under current conditions.
We aren't sure just what conditions would be acceptable now, for us to get back on a cruise ship, alas.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

User avatar
StevieG72
Posts: 1083
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:00 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by StevieG72 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:30 pm

I would cancel. We are not out of the woods yet, too many unknowns.

I love cruises, and hope the industry recovers and it is safe to cruise again soon.
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.

User avatar
MP123
Posts: 1515
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:32 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by MP123 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:38 pm

If you choose to go I hope you get a very substantial discount. I certainly wouldn't pay pre-Rona prices to go on a cruise these days.

In fact, even the $100 deposit might not be low enough!

7eight9
Posts: 1084
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by 7eight9 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:41 pm

Spend a week (or more if you can't dock) on a floating petri dish or lose $100. Pretty easy decision in my book.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Teague
Posts: 1999
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:15 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Teague » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:50 pm

Maybe someone who's a lot better at math than me could invoke some reasonable assumptions and estimate the probability that at least one contagious person will/will not be on such a cruise?
Semper Augustus

bugleheadd
Posts: 262
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:25 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by bugleheadd » Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:53 pm

if you choose to go you might get an extended covid19 two weeks or month locked in your cabin after the cruise ends

User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Moderator
Posts: 8363
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 6:50 am
Location: In the middle of five acres of woods in East Tennessee

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by oldcomputerguy » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:12 pm

How late in July? The CDC has issued a "no-cruise" order, originally to last for 30 days, now effective (as it stands now) until July 25.

Orginal order: https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/sign ... 031520.pdf

Extension: https://www.federalregister.gov/documen ... -and-other
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

New Providence
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:10 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by New Providence » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:14 pm

Roll the dice....worse case scenario you will get extra free weeks on it.

User avatar
ResearchMed
Posts: 10276
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by ResearchMed » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:15 pm

New Providence wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:14 pm
Roll the dice....worse case scenario you will get extra free weeks on it.
Uh, no...

That was definitely NOT the "worst case" for some recent cruise passengers...

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

tibbitts
Posts: 10739
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:50 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by tibbitts » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:26 pm

Chuck107 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:44 pm
gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
Seriously? I would never go one a cruise before, now? Not if it were free.
I would say you were not the intended audience for the question.

tibbitts
Posts: 10739
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:50 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by tibbitts » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:28 pm

Teague wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:50 pm
Maybe someone who's a lot better at math than me could invoke some reasonable assumptions and estimate the probability that at least one contagious person will/will not be on such a cruise?
Probably the same as the odds of there being or not being at least one contagious person at the all-inclusive resort or wherever the alternative plan takes the OP.

sabhen
Posts: 235
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2016 1:03 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by sabhen » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:30 pm

Why taking unreasonable risk?

tibbitts
Posts: 10739
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 6:50 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by tibbitts » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:31 pm

gwe67 wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:31 pm
We have to decide very soon whether to pay the remaining cost for a one-week Mexico cruise in late July. We can bail out now and lose $100 deposit. This trip would not involve flying on an airline. Thoughts?
I am hoping to cruise again, but not so soon. And there is zero chance I'd go to Mexico yet via any other means either. And yes I've been to Mexico - for one day ever, in December 2019, and enjoyed my visit. I might go back, but no matter what it would definitely not be in July of any year. I can find oppressive heat much closer to home for free.

clip651
Posts: 663
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by clip651 » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:32 pm

tennisplyr wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:44 pm
Only my opinion but July seems too soon for large crowds in close spaces.
And on a cruise, the crowd includes crew and other travelers from all over the world, to boot.

I cannot picture this being a good idea for anyone, including the cruise lines themselves, in July of 2020. Other posters have explained why.

User avatar
birdog
Posts: 756
Joined: Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:35 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by birdog » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:04 pm

Negative ghost rider. The pattern is full. Go around.

jcar
Posts: 240
Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2015 9:41 pm
Location: NC

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by jcar » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:31 pm

I enjoy cruising a couple times per year. I'm supposed to be on one now. I might review in August but only if we see a lot of progress in control and a pro active plan on what cruise lines are doing in future for preventing disease spread on board. I'd wait on the 100.00 as they may likely cancel cruise.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 8371
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by whodidntante » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:33 pm

Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax", said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave

Teague
Posts: 1999
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:15 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by Teague » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:42 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:33 pm
Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax", said the night man
"We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave
Warm smell of Bunker C heavy residual fuel oil #6 Colitas, rising up through the air?
Semper Augustus

TallBoy29er
Posts: 956
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:06 pm

Re: Go or no go on Carnival cruise

Post by TallBoy29er » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:45 pm

Oh Lord, bail now. Please, bail now.

Post Reply