Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

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Iowa David
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Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Iowa David »

--Update - 10/25--
Iowa David wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:56 pm
I think what I will do is hold tight for 6 months and wait until the 2021 models are close to hitting the lots. By this point the dealers may be more incentivized to make a deal and we should have a better sense of what long-term impact the Corona virus has had on supply chains and/or the economy.

Appreciate all of the pros & cons - exactly what I was hoping to hear.

I’ll update this thread once I’ve done something - thank you!
I scratched the itch a bit by buying a used motorcycle later in the Spring. It was a great release after being cooped up in the house for so many days with Covid/Work from home.

I did go to the car dealership last month (when the new '21 vehicles were starting to arrive) and was surprised by:

1. The dealership had a very-low inventory. Normally ~250 vehicles on the lot and now there were only about ~50.
2. The dealership was not very aggressive in trying to pursue a deal. I thought they would have been clamoring over my vehicle due to the perceived interest in the used car market, but this was not the case.
3. Perhaps the vehicle I'm looking at (Toyota 4-Runner) has such a strong demand that there is not as much room for negotiation compared with a Camry or Corolla, but I was really surprised that they were not more desperate/motivated to "make a deal."

My new approach is to wait and see if there is a new body design/engine/transmission for '22 and hold off on a purchase for another year.

Thanks again for all of the feedback and comments!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I'm struggling with the decision to purchase a new vehicle and would welcome the balanced view of this group.

Financially I can afford the new car (~$40K). We are maximizing our 401K contributions, HSA and IRAs for retirement. We have 529s started for our children and are putting excess monthly income into our taxable account. We have no consumer or mortgage debt.

Despite the financial footing, I always seem to struggle with a bit of buyers remorse and the guilt that I am in a fortunate position to have something like this when so many other do not.

My rational for buying a new vehicle:
  • Current vehicle is 10.5 years old, Spouse's is 6.
  • Both vehicles have about 100K in mileage and while they both are running great, I want to avoid a situation where I need to buy two new vehicles within a few years of one another.
  • I enjoy my current vehicle, but I've had an itch to have something different for at least two years.
My rational for not buying a new vehicle:
  • Perfectly good, mechanically-sound vehicle.
  • Continue to pump the cash I would use for the new vehicle into the taxable account (especially right now with all of the market uncertainty). The goal is to shorten the duration to achieving financial independence (25x of current living expenses).
  • I know I will have some buyers remorse and the euphoria of having something new will not be lasting.
Based on what I outlined above, what would you do?
Last edited by Iowa David on Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Just a 1 percent difference in expenses makes an 18 percent difference in returns when compounded over 20 years." The Boglehead's Guide to Investing
mhalley
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by mhalley »

There are a ton of new electric vehicles on the horizon. If you have any interest in Evs, try to hold off. My one non boglehead splurge was to always buy new cars and keep for a long time. If you want a new gas car, buy it. You can afford it.
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racy
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by racy »

If you can afford it, buy it. Life is short, enjoy it! And, then when you tire of it, get a motorcycle!
mortfree
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by mortfree »

Does it have to cost 40k?

I buy a new vehicle every 6 years or so for around 24k (last two were accords)
mega317
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by mega317 »

IMO the reasons you presented for buying are not great. If you will eventually need to replace two cars how does it help to spend some of the money now rather than later? 10 years 100k isn't that much. Sounds like an expensive itch.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212
theplayer11
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by theplayer11 »

go for it, life is short. Many think of a vehicle as a means to get from point A to point B. They are missing out as some vehicles actually fun to drive and bring you pleasure.
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Nate79
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Nate79 »

Can you pay with cash?
GeoffD
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by GeoffD »

I'm not convinced this is the best time to buy a car. On one side, with all the uncertainty, it's likely that new car sales are going to be way off deeper into the year. That suggests that there will be a lot of deals. On the other side, there are supply chain problems where some production lines are going to grind to a halt for a lack of critical parts. With limited production, there is no incentive to discount. I'm a "Thou Shalt Not Pay Retail" guy with buying cars. I usually try to buy leftovers at a steep discount and then run them until I no longer trust them. China auto sales pretty much stopped in Q1. There might be really good deals on cars in 6 months.
The Broz
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by The Broz »

mega317 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:20 pm IMO the reasons you presented for buying are not great. If you will eventually need to replace two cars how does it help to spend some of the money now rather than later? 10 years 100k isn't that much. Sounds like an expensive itch.
+1

I wouldn't worry too much about having a vehicle die on you and being without a car. If that happens, you can always rent a car for a few days before you buy one. It's not like you would have to figure out how to connect 5 different city buses to get to work.

If you don't have any debt and have the cash, I don't think it would be the end of the world if you bought. But it does kind of sound like you are trying to rationalize it.

FWIW - Dave Ramsey's rule of thumb is that your net worth should be $1M+ before you go buying new cars, and the total value of all of your things with wheels should be no more than 50% of your annual household income (I think). Reason being - brand new things with wheels lose a lot of value instantly, but at that level of net worth, the value you lose is insignificant to your financial health.

It's your money. So if you feel like it is the responsible thing to do, go for it. I bought a car brand new 7 years ago because I felt like it would be the only new car I would ever get. That turned out to be true - I don't think getting a brand new car is really worth it. So unless I become crazy wealthy, I don't think I would do it again.
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Watty
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Watty »

Iowa David wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:53 pm My rational for buying a new vehicle:
To your pro list I would add;

1) There have been a lot of safety advances. In addition to the high tech advanced safety features like automatic braking there was also a new offset crash test added in 2012 which caused some manufactures to improve their designs to do better on that new test.

2) Other high tech improvements like backup cameras and audio systems that link to your cell phone.

To your "unknown" list I would add;

The Corona virus may disrupt supply chains which could reduce the supply of new cars. Even if the car is made somewhere else the lack of one critical part from China could stop the production of it.

On the flip side there might not be many people shopping for new cars in a few months so there could be some really good deals available.

It is hard to guess how that will turn out.
Iowa David wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:53 pm Based on what I outlined above, what would you do?
My basic car buying strategy is to buy new cars then sell them when they are about 10 years old even if they are not having any problems. I buy cars that don't depreciate quickly and have a reputation for reliably like Hondas and Toyotas. This means that I rarely have any non-routine maintenance and a ten year old well maintained, one owner, never wrecked Toyota or Honda will sell for a surprising amount.

But I do by more modest cars like a Camry or Corolla.

I figure the operating costs and routine maintenance will be about the same no matter what car you have so when deciding when to replace a car I mainly look at the depreciation and non-routine maintenance.

For example I bought a new Corolla for about $17K and I expect that in 10 years(120 months) I will be able to sell it for around $5k. That means that it will cost me $12K in depreciation which is $100 a month. Unless I get unlucky I do not expect to have to have any non-routine maintenance in the first ten years( I consider things like some brake work to be routine maintenance based on the millage.)

If I kept the car for another year it would likely depreciate another $600($50 a month) so even a $600 repair would bring the yearly cost to $1,200 for year 11 which would be the same $100 a month. To me since the cost of depreciation and non-routine maintenance will be similar I might as well replace the car with a new one.

Those numbers are obviously a bit contrived to come out in such nice round numbers but I think that they are in the right ballpark.

That is not the cheapest way to own a car but $100 a month(or so) in depreciation fits within my budget and it is worth it to me.

You might try looking at your numbers that way for the type of car that you considering.
The Broz
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by The Broz »

Watty wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
Iowa David wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:53 pm My rational for buying a new vehicle:
To your pro list I would add;

1) There have been a lot of safety advances. In addition to the high tech advanced safety features like automatic braking there was also a new offset crash test added in 2012 which caused some manufactures to improve their designs to do better on that new test.

2) Other high tech improvements like backup cameras and audio systems that link to your cell phone.

To your "unknown" list I would add;

The Corona virus may disrupt supply chains which could reduce the supply of new cars. Even if the car is made somewhere else the lack of one critical part from China could stop the production of it.

On the flip side there might not be many people shopping for new cars in a few months so there could be some really good deals available.

It is hard to guess how that will turn out.
Iowa David wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:53 pm Based on what I outlined above, what would you do?
My basic car buying strategy is to buy new cars then sell them when they are about 10 years old even if they are not having any problems. I buy cars that don't depreciate quickly and have a reputation for reliably like Hondas and Toyotas. This means that I rarely have any non-routine maintenance and a ten year old well maintained, one owner, never wrecked Toyota or Honda will sell for a surprising amount.

But I do by more modest cars like a Camry or Corolla.

I figure the operating costs and routine maintenance will be about the same no matter what car you have so when deciding when to replace a car I mainly look at the depreciation and non-routine maintenance.

For example I bought a new Corolla for about $17K and I expect that in 10 years(120 months) I will be able to sell it for around $5k. That means that it will cost me $12K in depreciation which is $100 a month. Unless I get unlucky I do not expect to have to have any non-routine maintenance in the first ten years( I consider things like some brake work to be routine maintenance based on the millage.)

If I kept the car for another year it would likely depreciate another $600($50 a month) so even a $600 repair would bring the yearly cost to $1,200 for year 11 which would be the same $100 a month. To me since the cost of depreciation and non-routine maintenance will be similar I might as well replace the car with a new one.

Those numbers are obviously a bit contrived to come out in such nice round numbers but I think that they are in the right ballpark.

That is not the cheapest way to own a car but $100 a month(or so) in depreciation fits within my budget and it is worth it to me.

You might try looking at your numbers that way for the type of car that you considering.
Your rational is very interesting and well thought out. Not a way I would have considered looking at it. Thanks for sharing it.
multiham
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by multiham »

What do your numbers say on the years you currently need to hit 25X expenses? Compare it to the numbers if you buy the new car. Are you okay with whatever extra time it adds? Only you know the answer to that question. Since a car is a depreciating asset, it will never make "sense" to spend a lot on them.

Now that I have provided my practical answer, I personally would buy it. It is not an impulse purchase as you state you have wanted one for 2 years. I'm a believer in if you can afford to have a couple of nice things and not hurt your future, why not do it? That is just me. I am a car guy. I don't want long vacations or "experience activities". My experience will be the smile I get every time I get in my car. I enjoy the commute to and from work (45 minutes) on nice days.
MathIsMyWayr
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by MathIsMyWayr »

Spending money wisely is an earned skill and takes practice. When you have an urge and can justify and afford, spend it occasionally.
Sockpuppet
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Sockpuppet »

If you’re not buying a Tesla you’re wasting your money.
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SpringMan
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by SpringMan »

I too have the new car "Jones". New cars are fun assuming you don't get a lemon. Life is not all about saving up for a gold casket. Go for it.
Best Wishes, SpringMan
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Watty
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Watty »

The Broz wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:26 pm Your rational is very interesting and well thought out. Not a way I would have considered looking at it. Thanks for sharing it.
I have bought several cars on using that logic but you really need to crunch the numbers for situation since they can vary a lot. For example replacing a water pump on a Corolla might cost about the same as replacing a water pump on a $40K car so that might skew the numbers. Some expensive cars are also notorious for having high maintenance costs.

Somethings that also helps make it work for me is;

1) I start watching for good deals on my next car when my current car is about nine years old. I will wait for a great deal even if I have to wait until it eleven years old if I need to. I have had to buy a car within a week or two and that makes it hard to get a good deal. If you wait until you have to replace a car that might not be the best time to get a good deal.

2) I usually sell the old car myself. One thing to remember when you look up what a car is selling for is that is the average price and half the cars sold for more than that. With one owner car that is in great condition you can get a lot higher price if you are willing to take your time.
tdmp
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by tdmp »

You wrote: "The goal is to shorten the duration to achieving financial independence (25x of current living expenses"
My opinion is base on the above statement.
I don't know what vehicles you have right now. If they are mechanically sound, then I would wait out. I am not a math person; but napkin math says: $40K paying in cash right now is $40K plus oppurtunity cost on whatever investment to achieve FIRE. Let's say on $40K and you put all that in VTSAX and market returns 7% CAGR (I know not guaranteed). In 10 years it would be $80K. I don't know how long you have to work to achieve $80K post tax. So let's say you try to FIRE or have ability to FIRE in 10 years: (Tax laws may change and I am not a tax advisor/accountant etc.): assuming current tax laws: once retired: if you have no income and the only income is long-term capital gains distribution: it is basically tax free up to $78750 (married filing jointly). https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/c ... tax-rates/
Dividends and Bonds distribution are taxed differently.
I don't know how many hours you have to work to achieve $80K Tax free? That is the trade-off. (of course there is depreciation of vehicle, maintenance , "kicking the can down the road" bc you have to have another vehicle at some point, inflation of salary, and inflation of vehicle cost in the future: again I am not a math wizard so that have to be put in the calculations). Let's say you make $50/hour post tax: that means you have to work 1600 hours which is 200 days extra. Whatever makes you happier: New Car now or work extra 200 days? Life is short you can either choose to buy car (that can possibly make you very, very happy) or you can choose to buy time. My choice would be to buy time.
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jabberwockOG
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by jabberwockOG »

Drive your cars until they are not reliable. Hold off buying any new car for as long as possible - new car technology and safety capabilities are changing very rapidly right now (way faster than in past years) and will continue to do so for at least next 5-10 years. Some of the autonomous safety tech in current cars is actually quite primitive and I would avoid if possible if you can wait for at least 2-3 more years.
PopMegaphone
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by PopMegaphone »

jabberwockOG wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:12 am Drive your cars until they are not reliable.
Driving a car until it is unsafe is a terrible life investment. Replacing a ten year old car before major issues occur is not unreasonable.

OP, personally I wouldn't buy a 40k car, but it sounds like something you want and you're doing a great job saving. Treat yourself.
michaeljc70
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by michaeljc70 »

Your cars aren't that old and you yourself said you have an "itch". By today's reliability standards 100k miles isn't that much (on good cars). I'd wait a couple years. If you have $6 million dollars then go ahead and buy a $40k car. It sounds like you are still saving for retirement (or FI) though.
surfstar
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by surfstar »

You can afford the $40k, no question. Use the almighty "safety" aspect to help force your hand.
It would be a shame to be so financially secure, and then get into a vehicle accident and not be as protected as you could be. I don't mean go out and buy an H2 to overlord all vehicles, but just something decent, reliable, good value and with an increase in safety over the current vehicle. Money well spent.
bearwithbear
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by bearwithbear »

OP,

Buy the car.
And in 4 or 5 years replace the other car.
Rinse and repeat.

Bear.
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Iowa David
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Iowa David »

racy wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:59 pm If you can afford it, buy it. Life is short, enjoy it! And, then when you tire of it, get a motorcycle!
Now you’re talking, thanks Racy.

mega317 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:20 pm IMO the reasons you presented for buying are not great. If you will eventually need to replace two cars how does it help to spend some of the money now rather than later? 10 years 100k isn't that much. Sounds like an expensive itch.
Not sure I follow your comment. I’d rather drop $40k now and then replenish the savings bucket to buy a 2nd card in 5-6 years.
Nate79 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:38 pm Can you pay with cash?
That’s the intent. I plan to sell existing vehicle on the private market and cover the rest with cash. Go Chiefs! (Glad to see a fan on the East Coast.)
The Broz wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:10 pm
FWIW - Dave Ramsey's rule of thumb is that your net worth should be $1M+ before you go buying new cars, and the total value of all of your things with wheels should be no more than 50% of your annual household income (I think). Reason being - brand new things with wheels lose a lot of value instantly, but at that level of net worth, the value you lose is insignificant to your financial health.

It's your money. So if you feel like it is the responsible thing to do, go for it. I bought a car brand new 7 years ago because I felt like it would be the only new car I would ever get. That turned out to be true - I don't think getting a brand new car is really worth it. So unless I become crazy wealthy, I don't think I would do it again.

You make some good points. I bought the current vehicle 10.5 years ago (my first brand new vehicle) and swore I’d only buy used again. However, I got exactly what I wanted and I think that has led to my satisfaction and the amount of time I’ve held onto the vehicle. Buying new gives me the same flexibility, but it definitely comes at a cost.
Watty wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
My basic car buying strategy is to buy new cars then sell them when they are about 10 years old even if they are not having any problems. I buy cars that don't depreciate quickly and have a reputation for reliably like Hondas and Toyotas. This means that I rarely have any non-routine maintenance and a ten year old well maintained, one owner, never wrecked Toyota or Honda will sell for a surprising amount.

But I do by more modest cars like a Camry or Corolla.

I figure the operating costs and routine maintenance will be about the same no matter what car you have so when deciding when to replace a car I mainly look at the depreciation and non-routine maintenance.

For example I bought a new Corolla for about $17K and I expect that in 10 years(120 months) I will be able to sell it for around $5k. That means that it will cost me $12K in depreciation which is $100 a month. Unless I get unlucky I do not expect to have to have any non-routine maintenance in the first ten years( I consider things like some brake work to be routine maintenance based on the millage.)

If I kept the car for another year it would likely depreciate another $600($50 a month) so even a $600 repair would bring the yearly cost to $1,200 for year 11 which would be the same $100 a month. To me since the cost of depreciation and non-routine maintenance will be similar I might as well replace the car with a new one.

Those numbers are obviously a bit contrived to come out in such nice round numbers but I think that they are in the right ballpark.

That is not the cheapest way to own a car but $100 a month(or so) in depreciation fits within my budget and it is worth it to me.

You might try looking at your numbers that way for the type of car that you considering.
Interesting approach - thank you for sharing your perspective.
Sockpuppet wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:36 pm If you’re not buying a Tesla you’re wasting your money.
I lived in the Midwest and as much as I like the idea of having an eletric vehicle, I still don’t think the infrastructure & number of charging stations is quite there yet. I bet this will be drastically different 5 years from now.
surfstar wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:19 am You can afford the $40k, no question. Use the almighty "safety" aspect to help force your hand.
It would be a shame to be so financially secure, and then get into a vehicle accident and not be as protected as you could be. I don't mean go out and buy an H2 to overlord all vehicles, but just something decent, reliable, good value and with an increase in safety over the current vehicle. Money well spent.
I hadn’t thought of this from a safety perspective, but this newer vehicle definitely has more sensors and automation to help prevent collisions.
bearwithbear wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:47 am OP,

Buy the car.
And in 4 or 5 years replace the other car.
Rinse and repeat.

Bear.

I think what I will do is hold tight for 6 months and wait until the 2021 models are close to hitting the lots. By this point the dealers may be more incentivized to make a deal and we should have a better sense of what long-term impact the Corona virus has had on supply chains and/or the economy.

Appreciate all of the pros & cons - exactly what I was hoping to hear.

I’ll update this thread once I’ve done something - thank you!
"Just a 1 percent difference in expenses makes an 18 percent difference in returns when compounded over 20 years." The Boglehead's Guide to Investing
Helo80
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Helo80 »

Sometimes people on PF forums tend to make car buying and ownership more difficult than it has to be. There's a certain pride that takes place when somebody buys a used Corolla for $5000 and then squeezes another 100,000 miles out of it. (yeah, a bit of a hyperbole)

At the end of the day, if you can swing it and live in an area where you regularly need a car (e.g. not NYC or like areas), there's nothing wrong with switching cars at 10 years/100,000 miles. Safety and technology are improving at a great rate.

If you're buying a $40k vehicle... my guess is that you do not have very expensive tastes. (I don't mean this as an insult, as the car I've ordered is clocking in at $44k + TTL, you can get terrific vehicles in this price range... I'm talking about high end BMW's or Mercedes that lose $30k in half an hour of ownership).
Sockpuppet
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Sockpuppet »

Iowa David wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:56 pm
racy wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:59 pm If you can afford it, buy it. Life is short, enjoy it! And, then when you tire of it, get a motorcycle!
Now you’re talking, thanks Racy.

mega317 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:20 pm IMO the reasons you presented for buying are not great. If you will eventually need to replace two cars how does it help to spend some of the money now rather than later? 10 years 100k isn't that much. Sounds like an expensive itch.
Not sure I follow your comment. I’d rather drop $40k now and then replenish the savings bucket to buy a 2nd card in 5-6 years.
Nate79 wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:38 pm Can you pay with cash?
That’s the intent. I plan to sell existing vehicle on the private market and cover the rest with cash. Go Chiefs! (Glad to see a fan on the East Coast.)
The Broz wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:10 pm
FWIW - Dave Ramsey's rule of thumb is that your net worth should be $1M+ before you go buying new cars, and the total value of all of your things with wheels should be no more than 50% of your annual household income (I think). Reason being - brand new things with wheels lose a lot of value instantly, but at that level of net worth, the value you lose is insignificant to your financial health.

It's your money. So if you feel like it is the responsible thing to do, go for it. I bought a car brand new 7 years ago because I felt like it would be the only new car I would ever get. That turned out to be true - I don't think getting a brand new car is really worth it. So unless I become crazy wealthy, I don't think I would do it again.

You make some good points. I bought the current vehicle 10.5 years ago (my first brand new vehicle) and swore I’d only buy used again. However, I got exactly what I wanted and I think that has led to my satisfaction and the amount of time I’ve held onto the vehicle. Buying new gives me the same flexibility, but it definitely comes at a cost.
Watty wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:19 pm
My basic car buying strategy is to buy new cars then sell them when they are about 10 years old even if they are not having any problems. I buy cars that don't depreciate quickly and have a reputation for reliably like Hondas and Toyotas. This means that I rarely have any non-routine maintenance and a ten year old well maintained, one owner, never wrecked Toyota or Honda will sell for a surprising amount.

But I do by more modest cars like a Camry or Corolla.

I figure the operating costs and routine maintenance will be about the same no matter what car you have so when deciding when to replace a car I mainly look at the depreciation and non-routine maintenance.

For example I bought a new Corolla for about $17K and I expect that in 10 years(120 months) I will be able to sell it for around $5k. That means that it will cost me $12K in depreciation which is $100 a month. Unless I get unlucky I do not expect to have to have any non-routine maintenance in the first ten years( I consider things like some brake work to be routine maintenance based on the millage.)

If I kept the car for another year it would likely depreciate another $600($50 a month) so even a $600 repair would bring the yearly cost to $1,200 for year 11 which would be the same $100 a month. To me since the cost of depreciation and non-routine maintenance will be similar I might as well replace the car with a new one.

Those numbers are obviously a bit contrived to come out in such nice round numbers but I think that they are in the right ballpark.

That is not the cheapest way to own a car but $100 a month(or so) in depreciation fits within my budget and it is worth it to me.

You might try looking at your numbers that way for the type of car that you considering.
Interesting approach - thank you for sharing your perspective.
Sockpuppet wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:36 pm If you’re not buying a Tesla you’re wasting your money.
I lived in the Midwest and as much as I like the idea of having an eletric vehicle, I still don’t think the infrastructure & number of charging stations is quite there yet. I bet this will be drastically different 5 years from now.
surfstar wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:19 am You can afford the $40k, no question. Use the almighty "safety" aspect to help force your hand.
It would be a shame to be so financially secure, and then get into a vehicle accident and not be as protected as you could be. I don't mean go out and buy an H2 to overlord all vehicles, but just something decent, reliable, good value and with an increase in safety over the current vehicle. Money well spent.
I hadn’t thought of this from a safety perspective, but this newer vehicle definitely has more sensors and automation to help prevent collisions.
bearwithbear wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:47 am OP,

Buy the car.
And in 4 or 5 years replace the other car.
Rinse and repeat.

Bear.

I think what I will do is hold tight for 6 months and wait until the 2021 models are close to hitting the lots. By this point the dealers may be more incentivized to make a deal and we should have a better sense of what long-term impact the Corona virus has had on supply chains and/or the economy.

Appreciate all of the pros & cons - exactly what I was hoping to hear.

I’ll update this thread once I’ve done something - thank you!
I’ve taken my a Tesla into the boonies and driven it long distances and lack of charging options really is not an issue. Typically you charge every night and have 250-300 miles to use each day. If traveling further the Super Charger network is incredible and you can check out locations on Tesla’s website. They usually have a ton on any interstate.

Super Charging is less convenient than gas I admit but the autopilot makes up for it on long trips.

They key thing is to have the ability to install a 240 volt outlet in your garage so you can charge at home. Best of luck on whatever you get!

Tesla Map: https://www.tesla.com/trips
retire57
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by retire57 »

Because you can pay cash and intend to keep the car for many years, I vote "yes". Happy shopping!
Hogan773
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Hogan773 »

jabberwockOG wrote: Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:12 am Drive your cars until they are not reliable. Hold off buying any new car for as long as possible - new car technology and safety capabilities are changing very rapidly right now (way faster than in past years) and will continue to do so for at least next 5-10 years. Some of the autonomous safety tech in current cars is actually quite primitive and I would avoid if possible if you can wait for at least 2-3 more years.
But you can use this logic for lots of things....there is always going to be something a little better and/or a little cheaper (in the case of TVs etc) next year or the year after that

Like the OP I also struggle sometimes with my Boglehead mentality even though I may have already "won the game". In the case of cars I am thinking of getting a new one to replace one of our two (the one that is 10yrs old) even though the current car is "fine" and I have taken great care of it so it will probably drive another 5 to 10 years without major issue (it's a Honda). Like the "golden casket" post above, I have started to do a new kind of math in my head....I am high 40s, and if I am keeping my cars on average for 10 yrs then there are only so many new cars I will get to own and drive in my lifetime, and spending "net" 25K every 5 years (we have 2 cars) on average isn't really going to move any needles on my overall financial situation. Yet it is still just a little nagging feeling of not "needing" to buy a car that makes me move more slowly on the purchase.
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Kenkat
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Kenkat »

Sockpuppet wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:36 pm If you’re not buying a Tesla you’re wasting your money.
Adam Smith’s invisible hand would disagree with you.
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Kenkat
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Kenkat »

I’m going to do some market timing here. Not stock market timing but car market timing.

If you don’t have to buy a car right now, I would wait. If the economy slows down, you will likely see many manufacturer incentives to help move existing inventory. You may be able to get a better deal if no one is buying cars. If the economy doesn’t slow down, you haven’t lost out because it’s still cheaper to drive your existing car for as long as possible.
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JAZZISCOOL
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by JAZZISCOOL »

Kenkat wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:43 am I’m going to do some market timing here. Not stock market timing but car market timing.

If you don’t have to buy a car right now, I would wait. If the economy slows down, you will likely see many manufacturer incentives to help move existing inventory. You may be able to get a better deal if no one is buying cars. If the economy doesn’t slow down, you haven’t lost out because it’s still cheaper to drive your existing car for as long as possible.
+1

PIMCO, one of the largest active bond managers, is predicting a "relatively mild and short recession" from COVID-19, FWIW. But cites risk in the credit markets. Global markets in major turmoil today 3/9/20.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20V11U

"PIMCO expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least another 50 basis points with the possibility the Fed drops rates to zero and resumes asset purchases, Fels said. Futures traders bet the Fed will slash rates to near zero by April.

Other central banks, including in developing countries, are likely to ease policy further in coming weeks and months to sustain the flow of credit to the corporate sector, he said. "
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Iowa David
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Re: Talk me into or out of a new vehicle purchase

Post by Iowa David »

I provided an update to the original thread. Thanks again for those who took time to provide some perspective.
"Just a 1 percent difference in expenses makes an 18 percent difference in returns when compounded over 20 years." The Boglehead's Guide to Investing
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