Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

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jjwpls
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Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by jjwpls » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am

Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels in mid March, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland. At that time I thought cases of coronavirus were pretty isolated in the U.S., so they should be fine.

But as this Washington Post report yesterday said, the low number of U.S. coronavirus probably reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections. As the case of Iran, South Korean and Italy demonstrated, once the outbreak spreads, it is difficult to contain the virus, not to mention the fact that lAX is one of the major airports that still accept travelers from China, and a Korean Air flight attendantwas diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles ...

The virus is not just a more severe influenza; patients, even though "healed", are likely to live with severe health consequences, just as the case of SARS. So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?
Last edited by jjwpls on Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:40 pm, edited 6 times in total.

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Johnsson
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Johnsson » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:08 am

Yes. It's a risk/reward decision. A relatively easy decision in my estimation. Disneyland is also one of the bigger venues, drawing a wide variety of people from a wide variety of places. :shock:
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra

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Johnsson
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Johnsson » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:17 am

However, if it was 2 months instead of 2 weeks I'd say wait. The flu typically dies out as the weather improves towards spring/summer.
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra

aristotelian
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by aristotelian » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:18 am

Unless you are in a high risk group I wouldn't change. Maybe wear masks if that makes you feel better. We have tickets to Hawaii in July and plan to go unless the FAA stops us. I would be most worried about getting stuck on a boat but fortunately we are nit big on cruises. Just my opinion. I am not a medical professional.

TomCat96
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:29 am

jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am
Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland. At that time I thought cases of coronavirus were pretty isolated in the U.S., so they should be fine.

But as this Washington Post report yesterday said, the low number of U.S. coronavirus probably reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections. As the case of Iran, South Korean and Italy demonstrated, once the outbreak spreads, it is difficult to contain the virus, not to mention the fact that lAX is one of the major airports that still accept travelers from China, and a Korean Air flight attendantwas diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles ...

The virus is not just a more severe influenza; patients, even though "healed", are likely to live with severe health consequences, just as the case of SARS. So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?
I'm about as alarmist as you can get on this. But I think this is an overreach.
There's no evidence that LAX is infected or that the infection is spreading. Furthermore, if there had been we would have seen cases pouring out of LA by now.

It's almost kind of an all or nothing deal. In other words, if no one has, then no one has it. If one person has it, everyone has it. The infection spread is extremely rapid. Onset in the majority of cases is rapid too 2-14 days. Even if you get the asymptomatic person who can theoretically spread the virus, the people they spread it to will not be. What I'm saying is if there were an issue you would see it.

Post this again in 2 months and I may not have the same answer. But for now, I don't see any reason to cancel a 600 dollar ticket. You're not flying to italy, korea, iran, or China. In the meanwhile, I'm still going about my days as normal.
Last edited by TomCat96 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.

quantAndHold
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:34 am

When is the trip? You don’t really gain anything by canceling now as opposed to right before the trip. If the trip was tomorrow, I would just go. There’s nothing going on in the United States that seems worth worrying about. If it’s in two months, wait and see what conditions are, and cancel if necessary then.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

equanimity
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by equanimity » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am

I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
___ Don't gain the world and lose your soul. Wisdom is better than silver and gold ___

GeoffD
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by GeoffD » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm

equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.

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bligh
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by bligh » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:15 pm

GeoffD wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.
You are misreading that statistic. Out of 229 "confirmed" infections 27 ended up in the ICU. You only get confirmed if you show strong enough symptoms to go get medical attention AND the staff decides to (and has the ability to - I don't believe the testing kit for this virus is as widely available as yet) perform the test. The big unknown is, how many people are getting infected but showing no symptoms, or just powering through at home with some DayQuil, sleep and soup, or showing up for medical care and not getting tested for the corona virus.

The physicians I have spoken to (in my circle of friends) all unanimously think this virus should essentially just be thought of as one of those years where the Flu is slightly more virulent. Sort of like a "bad flu season this year".

I have a trip to Japan booked in the Summer (also flying out of LAX) so I am just watching and waiting to see how it all turns out. Too many unknowns at this point. There is hope that this virus will exhibit seasonality similar to the Flu, but who knows.

To get some perspective have a look at the CDC site on Flu stats. These stats are JUST for the US.. I am sure the worldwide numbers look much much worse: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

This all makes sense, but what that doesn't add up for me is the seriousness with which the authorities are taking this. As a lay, uninformed individual, I am looking at the way they are reacting to it and finding myself becoming quite worried.

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PaddyMac
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by PaddyMac » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:27 pm

GeoffD wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.
I read that this new virus is killing about 2% of those infected, while the annual flu kills only about 0.10%. The Spanish flu pandemic killed @ 1.9%.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/keyfacts.htm#how-many

Other differences seem to be that the regular flu hits younger patients harder than older (that's because we are building up immunity as we age), while the opposite is true of COVID19 (young kids in China at least are not being infected much, if at all). So I don't think you can really compare it to a "bad flu" as it's a new virus.

Frankly, I'm very concerned about what the next few weeks will bring. A health analyst notes that this could become more like the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, which was an enormous tragedy. I don't think we should be dismissing any news as "scare tactics" just yet. (And I trust the leaders at the CDC more than some politician or economic advisor who's main goal is to keep the stock market from falling.)

Note that a "pandemic" doesn't mean that it's a "global" thing, it's more about immunity - see "How Is Pandemic Flu Different from Seasonal Flu?"
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... about.html

equanimity
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by equanimity » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:32 pm

GeoffD wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.
My point is that over 8000 people have died from influenza this year in the United States. Today, the flu is a greater risk to an American life than the coronavirus. That is my point. I'm an ICU physician in the United States. I've had at least two dozen patients over the last two months that have been admitted to the ICU and required mechanical ventilation, some needing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Some died. I have a healthy dose of respect for influenza, which comes every year.

I am by no means suggesting that Coronavirus doesn't have the capacity to become a serious pandemic. I'm just saying that influenza already is one.
___ Don't gain the world and lose your soul. Wisdom is better than silver and gold ___

Valuethinker
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:33 pm

jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am
Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland. At that time I thought cases of coronavirus were pretty isolated in the U.S., so they should be fine.

But as this Washington Post report yesterday said, the low number of U.S. coronavirus probably reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections. As the case of Iran, South Korean and Italy demonstrated, once the outbreak spreads, it is difficult to contain the virus, not to mention the fact that lAX is one of the major airports that still accept travelers from China, and a Korean Air flight attendantwas diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles ...

The virus is not just a more severe influenza; patients, even though "healed", are likely to live with severe health consequences, just as the case of SARS. So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?
If I was in your shoes, and it was only $600, and there was no urgent reason to fly, I would probably cancel. Because if something did go wrong, I would never forgive myself - personal bravery does not extend to my decisions about my loved ones. $600 is is the price of a (moderately) expensive night out for 4 people.

I don't know as much about the etiology of the disease as you appear to - it is simply quite easy to catch, and sometimes deadly (to an unknown extent). I view its spread into the world population as almost inevitable - the coming summer season *should* slow it down in the northern hemisphere but it can reinfect from the southern one come next winter. Until we have a working vaccine (and hopefully some effective treatments) then it is likely to keep circulating.

However presumably you can do so right up to the flight date? So you can see how things will play out?

Valuethinker
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:35 pm

equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:32 pm
GeoffD wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.
My point is that over 8000 people have died from influenza this year in the United States. Today, the flu is a greater risk to an American life than the coronavirus.
"is the greater risk" should perhaps be phrased "has killed more Americans"? Because we don't know which is the greater risk - that's a statement about the future.
That is my point. I'm an ICU physician in the United States. I've had at least two dozen patients over the last two months that have been admitted to the ICU and required mechanical ventilation, some needing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Some died. I have a healthy dose of respect for influenza, which comes every year.

I am by no means suggesting that Coronavirus doesn't have the capacity to become a serious pandemic. I'm just saying that influenza already is one.
I believe that there is a vaccination against the current strain of influenza? Coronavirus we are probably months (or years) away from that?

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by KyleAAA » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:44 pm

equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
The CDC disagrees with you. I can assure you, they don't think the media is overhyping this.

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jjwpls
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by jjwpls » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:55 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:33 pm
jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am
Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland. At that time I thought cases of coronavirus were pretty isolated in the U.S., so they should be fine.

But as this Washington Post report yesterday said, the low number of U.S. coronavirus probably reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections. As the case of Iran, South Korean and Italy demonstrated, once the outbreak spreads, it is difficult to contain the virus, not to mention the fact that lAX is one of the major airports that still accept travelers from China, and a Korean Air flight attendantwas diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles ...

The virus is not just a more severe influenza; patients, even though "healed", are likely to live with severe health consequences, just as the case of SARS. So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?
If I was in your shoes, and it was only $600, and there was no urgent reason to fly, I would probably cancel. Because if something did go wrong, I would never forgive myself - personal bravery does not extend to my decisions about my loved ones. $600 is is the price of a (moderately) expensive night out for 4 people.

I don't know as much about the etiology of the disease as you appear to - it is simply quite easy to catch, and sometimes deadly (to an unknown extent). I view its spread into the world population as almost inevitable - the coming summer season *should* slow it down in the northern hemisphere but it can reinfect from the southern one come next winter. Until we have a working vaccine (and hopefully some effective treatments) then it is likely to keep circulating.

However presumably you can do so right up to the flight date? So you can see how things will play out?
I would agree with your analysis...just learned from a family friend living in Northern Italy, and she said things are pretty bad there: Schools closed, and she was forced to work from home for 1 week; among many of the infected are doctors or people who work in the hospitals...would wait and see how things play out, and probably cancel the flights last minute.

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bligh
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by bligh » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:15 pm

jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:55 pm

I would agree with your analysis...just learned from a family friend living in Northern Italy, and she said things are pretty bad there: Schools closed, and she was forced to work from home for 1 week; among many of the infected are doctors or people who work in the hospitals...would wait and see how things play out, and probably cancel the flights last minute.
Everyone considers the death rate but the bigger worry is the health care system becoming overwhelmed. Between having too many people hospitalized could easily cause the system to become overloaded or run short on supplies. Add in the fact that health care workers are by definition more likely to become sick, so they would be out of commission and so you end up with short handed health care staff (the alternative would be to, risk the health care provider themselves infecting more people)

That could get ugly, I think that is what is worrying the authorities more. Even if, on an individual basis, it really would appear to be just a slightly more severe case of the flu.

Prudence
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Prudence » Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:28 pm

Yes it would be very rational to cancel. My DW and I have a trip to Key West in April. I am thinking very seriously of canceling. I will lose a big deposit on the lodging and have to pay to cancel our airline tickets and get a refund of the FF miles. I will probably cancel the day before my final lodging payment is due, assuming the coronavirus is spreading around the U.S. It is a tough decision; if we go, there will probably be fewer visitors which would be nice, so I will keep track of the status.

Naismith
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Naismith » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:06 pm

I would be more worried about Disneyland than the flight itself. All those surfaces that we touch in theme parks: The metal bars in line, the controllers on rides, the seat belts...tourists from all over the world...

I just got back from a trip to Southeast Asia: Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines. Unfortunately we flew home via Hong Kong. We were on the ground for only 45 minutes (wearing N95 masks there), and we wiped off all our checked luggage. But we are still isolating ourselves at home, as we would feel horrible if we brought it back to our town.

In Singapore, we could not enter any tourist attraction without having our temperature checked. In Indonesia, we had to fill out a form with our contact info so that they could notify us if anyone on our flight became ill. In the Philippines, they took our temperature every time we entered the hotel.

Landing in the US Monday night (2/24), no temperature check and no information card. And that was Orlando, where tourists come from all over the world.

The only good thing is that perhaps we will all develop good hygiene habits. I have always wiped down my airline armrests and tray table and switches with an anti-microbial wet wipe, while my husband scoffed. Now he is joining in.
Last edited by Naismith on Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bob60014
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by bob60014 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:08 pm

327 million people in the USA
14 confirmed coronavirus cases
0 deaths

Will there be flare ups? Maybe, but the numbers are not supporting the hype, imho.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

beehivehave
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by beehivehave » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:12 pm

bob60014 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:08 pm
327 million people in the USA
14 confirmed coronavirus cases
0 deaths

Will there be flare ups? Maybe, but the numbers are not supporting the hype, imho.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html
Last year in China:
1.4 billion people in China
0 confirmed cases
0 deaths

staustin
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by staustin » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:13 pm

Not traveling in the us seems an overreaction to me. We're booked for london over spring break. I plan to make a go / no go decision the week before. if conditions then are the same as now, i'm going. Can't live in fear.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by beehivehave » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:15 pm

staustin wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:13 pm
Not traveling in the us seems an overreaction to me. We're booked for london over spring break. I plan to make a go / no go decision the week before. if conditions then are the same as now, i'm going. Can't live in fear.
If conditions remain the same it's a no-brainer.
It might even be safer there.

biscuits
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by biscuits » Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:19 pm

I'm with you!

We have a pleasure trip to Houston booked in mid-March. I'm worried about the plane, the airport, and staying in a hotel--what happens if one person in that hotel tests positive while we are there? 14 days of quarantine? Maybe I'm over-reacting, but I'm prepared to cancel. Fortunately, flights are on friendly Southwest (so flight can be cancelled and funds can be used for a future trip) and the hotel can be cancelled up to 24 hours in advance.

TravelGeek
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:11 pm

Naismith wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:06 pm
I would be more worried about Disneyland than the flight itself. All those surfaces that we touch in theme parks: The metal bars in line, the controllers on rides, the seat belts...tourists from all over the world...
I was going to post the same thing.

I am scheduled to fly through LAX twice in the next 10 days, and I am planning to go (actual destination is a country south of us with no cases). I will be careful about touching stuff, washing hands etc., as I try to always do when traveling during flu season.

I would, if I was the OP, avoid crowded places like Disneyland. Perhaps a few days at the beach or seeing outdoor sites without constant close proximity of crowds would be a reasonable alternative.

Also, if I were to cancel, I would wait until shortly before the flight as schedule changes or travel waivers could make it cheaper or free to cancel/reschedule.
Last edited by TravelGeek on Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.

TravelGeek
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:22 pm

equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:32 pm

My point is that over 8000 people have died from influenza this year in the United States. Today, the flu is a greater risk to an American life than the coronavirus. That is my point. I'm an ICU physician in the United States. I've had at least two dozen patients over the last two months that have been admitted to the ICU and required mechanical ventilation, some needing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Some died. I have a healthy dose of respect for influenza, which comes every year.

I am by no means suggesting that Coronavirus doesn't have the capacity to become a serious pandemic. I'm just saying that influenza already is one.
First of all, thank you for what you are doing and stay safe; too many physicians in Asia have gotten infected. Hopefully it will be a non-event for all of us, but ID specialists and the CDC seem quite concerned.

Second, how many empty beds does your ICU have right now? (our local hospital is “at capacity” on a regular basis during flu season).

Finally, seasonal influenza is not considered a pandemic according to the CDC.

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CULater
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by CULater » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:39 pm

Confined in a flying metal cigar with a bunch of strangers for a few hours, wondering if anyone has the coronavirus, is not my idea of enjoyment. Especially with kids. Anyplace I can't get to in my car is off my itinerary for awhile. I have friends cancelling cruise trips now.
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by CedarWaxWing » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:10 pm

59 Cases of Covid-19 identified in the USA at this time, 6 of whom are considered recovered, no deaths from it in the USA thus far.
The odds of coming into contact with someone who is contagious with Covid-19 is not likely... but no one can say it is not possible.


If the trip is planned and paid for I would proceed unless you have special health issues that put you or your family at greatly increased risk of a bad outcome if you were to be exposed to Covid-19.

That said, if increased risks for anyone in your party are pertinent, that also is pertinent with influenza, which has a much lower death rate but also has a much much higher incidence, and therefore risk of exposure in the USA at this time.

If influenza or other risk of respiratory disease would not stop me from proceeding with the trip, neither, at this time, would concerns in regards to Covid-19.

Use all the normal hygiene precautions of course, but what else is new? ;)

If you want confirmation of these opinions... why not call your local or state public health office?

Although they will likely simply follow the CDC recommendations ... since those are the folks with access to all the pertinent sources of data as it becomes known.



https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6
https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Jimsad » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:19 pm

We had a trip planned for spring break time to Washington DC.
My wife forced me to cancel the trip . She feels we may be at risk of being exposed in the flight ‘closed space ‘ . She did not want to end up being quarantined for 2-3 weeks and miss work and school for kids .
We changed our plan and are vacationing closer to home where we can drive to . I wanted to stick to original plan but I know I cannot win against her .

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CULater
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by CULater » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:20 pm

Why compare coronavirus to the flu? For the latter many people have natural immunity and there is a vaccine. For the former, no-one has natural immunity and there is currently no vaccine.
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Super Hans
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Super Hans » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:29 pm

I don't really see the connection between travel and coronavirus, unless that travel is to a place where there is a known outbreak. That is, it's not clear to me how heading down to wine country in Argentina or up to Maine for some winter hiking would be any more risky than just continuing to take the subway to work everyday. It kind of reminds me of the end of 2001 when people thought I was a real daredevil for jumping on ~$300 tickets to Greece. How could I roll the dice with the al-Qaders instead of staying safe in -- New York.

I have a few transatlantic adventures planned over the next six months. If the time comes and Milan looks risky, I'll cancel that trip, but it seems kind of unlikely metro Washington will be completely safe and Lombardia highly dangerous as this runs its course.
Last edited by Super Hans on Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by cowdogman » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:32 pm

Similar situation here. Wife and 14 YO son going to LA mid-march for a music event. Bigger issue for me is what to do about summer camp. My son goes to a music camp every summer, often on the east coast (we're in WA state), for several weeks. Does he go? Do we commit (and pay several thousand dollars) in the next couple weeks--as required--and then make the call later about whether to go? The kids at these camps come from all over the world.

Risks seems to be:

1. He gets sick there and I have a hard time getting to him.
2. He gets sick and is quarantined at the camp.
3. He gets sick there and the health facilities are inadequate (very rural location).

Camp is very important for him--he wants to be a musician and the camp is important part of a very competitive profession.

I think the right answer right now is pay and cross our fingers, but I suspect it will be a tough decision to send him off in June.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:33 pm

Super Hans wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:29 pm
I don't really see the connection between travel and coronavirus, unless that travel is to a place where there is a known outbreak. That is, it's not clear to me how heading down to wine country in Argentina or up to Maine for some winter hiking would be any more risky than just continuing to take the subway to work everyday. It kind of reminds me of the end of 2001 when people thought I was a real daredevil for jumping on ~$300 tickets to Greece. How could I roll the dice with the al-Qaders instead of staying safe in -- New York.

I have a few transatlantic adventures planned over the next six months. If the time comes and Milan looks risky, I'll cancel that trip, but it seems kind of unlikely metro Washington will be completely safe and Lombardia highly dangerous as this runs its course.
I believe people are worried about airports and airplanes. That's the risk hotspot.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by aristotelian » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:54 pm

Clark Howard suggested don't cancel until the last minute. There is a chance the airlines will cancel for you. If you cancel now, you lose any chance of refund.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by aristotelian » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:57 pm

cowdogman wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:32 pm
Similar situation here. Wife and 14 YO son going to LA mid-march for a music event. Bigger issue for me is what to do about summer camp. My son goes to a music camp every summer, often on the east coast (we're in WA state), for several weeks. Does he go? Do we commit (and pay several thousand dollars) in the next couple weeks--as required--and then make the call later about whether to go? The kids at these camps come from all over the world.

Risks seems to be:

1. He gets sick there and I have a hard time getting to him.
2. He gets sick and is quarantined at the camp.
3. He gets sick there and the health facilities are inadequate (very rural location).

Camp is very important for him--he wants to be a musician and the camp is important part of a very competitive profession.

I think the right answer right now is pay and cross our fingers, but I suspect it will be a tough decision to send him off in June.
14 year old is not a risk group. Make sure you know where the nearest hospital is. Otherwise I would not have a second thought about letting him go.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by JaneyLH » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:48 pm

Getting on a plane for a 15-hour flight to Sydney in about 10 days. Then on a cruise ship for 12 days. Then driving around NZ for 20 days. Then back on a plan for 15-hour flight home. All paid for in advance, of course. We're planning to go at this point. If we were 85 rather than 65, I'm sure we'd cancel though. :confused

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by CULater » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:48 pm

Just saw news report on ABC that a S. Korean flight attendant was in and out of LAX and has been diagnosed with coronavirus. They are now attempting to disinfect LAX.
“We’re disinfecting LAX every hour,” the mayor told reporters Wednesday. “We’re making sure that those points of entry and those places where we could see somebody come in and create a vector are secure as we can possibly make them, knowing you can never have 100% security.”
https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2020/0 ... ronavirus/
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by ame » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 pm

jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am
Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels in mid March, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland. At that time I thought cases of coronavirus were pretty isolated in the U.S., so they should be fine.

But as this Washington Post report yesterday said, the low number of U.S. coronavirus probably reflects limited testing rather than a lack of infections. As the case of Iran, South Korean and Italy demonstrated, once the outbreak spreads, it is difficult to contain the virus, not to mention the fact that lAX is one of the major airports that still accept travelers from China, and a Korean Air flight attendantwas diagnosed with coronavirus shortly after working on a flight to Los Angeles ...

The virus is not just a more severe influenza; patients, even though "healed", are likely to live with severe health consequences, just as the case of SARS. So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?
I would cancel.

I'm actually debating whether to go get my physical or not :? . I can’t wait to take a shower after visiting a hospital.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by MikeG62 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:33 am

I would not go to a place like Disneyland at this time.

I've got two trips booked myself (one next week to Canada and one in April to the Caribbean) and I am getting more and more worried about traveling in airplanes or spending too much time in the airports due to Coronavirus. My wife and I are discussing canceling one or both of those currently. Would eat airline fees in both cases (totaling ~$1,000). Also, would need to cancel the hotel for the April trip by mid March to avoid cancel fee at 100% of the cost of the room (which is nearly $5,000). :(
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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Nestegg_User » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:35 am

DW and niece have trip to northern Italy in three weeks, purchased months ago... currently just out of "red zone", and are expecting that even if they get there that the sites would be closed :( .... but as they were non-refundable they have to wait for the airline to cancel (the airport is still currently open but would be one of the closest to problem area, is heavily traveled by tourists, and so we do expect it to be impacted)

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by mptfan » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:39 am

equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:32 pm
My point is that over 8000 people have died from influenza this year in the United States.
You posted this on February 26, are you saying 8,000 people died in the U.S. from the flu between January 1 and February 25, 2020?

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Hpyhrt » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:46 am

There has been an abysmal lack of testing and the first case of community based infection in CA. I think peace of mind would be worth more than $600 and Disneyland will be there for a long time to come.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:01 pm

mptfan wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:39 am
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:32 pm
My point is that over 8000 people have died from influenza this year in the United States.
You posted this on February 26, are you saying 8,000 people died in the U.S. from the flu between January 1 and February 25, 2020?
He probably means this flu season, which begins roughly Oct 1 every year. So since October 1 2019?

Compared to flu, from what I have read :

- apparent death rate is 20x (0.1% mortality v 2.0%) - this (high) number does not seem conclusive to me, but I have heard it quoted by officials
- infectiousness of the coronavirus appears to be much greater - this is damned easy to get
- we lack a vaccine at this point and are unlikely to have one before next winter/ (or perhaps even years) hence?

It seems as if this is breaking out into a pandemic - we are losing our ability to contain the infection.

However public health measures and reasonable precautions by ordinary citizens can do much to slow its spread. It's not inevitable that 8 billion people will be infected. With luck, it can be restrained down to a bad flu year, like 1967-Hong Kong Flu.

In the plagues of Justinian in 6th Century Byzantium ("Rome" to the inhabitants, "Istanbul" to us) the dead numbered so many that they just filled the towers of the city walls with their bodies, dumped - turning them into ossuaries. Perhaps 1/3rd-1/2 of all the people inside the boundaries of the old Roman Empire died within 5 years as the disease spread. Unsurprisingly, religious cults that this was the End of the World, arose.

We are long way from that. There is much we can all do.

Our ancestors, who did not share the deluded notion we havet that human beings were all powerful against the Fates, would have advised us to see to our God, or our Gods - and pray.

My father grew up in the German bombing of London 1940-41 known as "the Blitz". He said to me (after I was shaken by a wave of suicide bombings in London 7-7-2005) that "you set off for school in the morning, and if your number was up and you didn't come home, you didn't come home". I used to walk by the memorial on a wall to the victims of the bomber detonating himself on top of the Number 30 bus (11 dead from memory) that morning, and on the other side of the road there is a plaque to 2 firemen who died in the winter of 1941 when a building collapsed on them.

London bleeds, but it lives on. One of the victims of those bombings, who lost her legs, became a Paralympian and competed in the 2012 London Paralympic Games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martine_Wright

The British government prepared a poster for the eventuality of German air attack. It was to be deployed to prevent panic or refugees clogging the roads, a feature of the French defeat in May 1940. 2.5 million were printed, most were never displayed and were then pulped. It was unearthed in a shop, and became a catchphrase of Britain during the long post 2008 Austerity ...

"Keep Calm and Carry On".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keep_Calm_and_Carry_On

Our ancestors, my late father and the British government, had, I think, good advice to give us.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by JGoneRiding » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:32 pm

GeoffD wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:04 pm
equanimity wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:53 am
I do not think that there is any evidence that COVID19 is more deadly than influenza. The overwhelming majority of those that died in China from COVID 19 likely died due to a lack of adequate access to sufficient healthcare. Contrast that with influenza, where people are currently dying by the thousands in the United States despite being admitted to high functioning intensive care units.

The media likes to gin up hysteria with the next pandemic while failing to objectively quantify risk, including the relative risk compared to things (like influenza) that our society faces year in and year out. Just one man's opinion...
A quick Google search shows that for Italy as of two days ago, 229 infected, 7 dead, 27 in the ICU. What is this? Fake news? The facts don’t align at all with your narrative. The sample size isn’t large enough to be definitive but it looks like if you catch it, you have about a 10% chance of landing in the ICU with severe pneumonia symptoms and a 2% chance of dying. That is nothing at all like influenza.
I dont have the 2019 numbers at my finger tips but I absolutely guarantee that in the UNITED STATES they are worse for all of those statistics. Chance of getting chance of being really ill chance of dying etc.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by GeoffD » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:30 pm

JGoneRiding wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:32 pm

I dont have the 2019 numbers at my finger tips but I absolutely guarantee that in the UNITED STATES they are worse for all of those statistics. Chance of getting chance of being really ill chance of dying etc.
Nobody died of the Spanish Flu (H1N1) in 1917. Therefore, by your logic, it clearly couldn't possibly have been a problem in 1918 when 50 million people died of it.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by halfnine » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:44 pm

No one in my community has the coronavirus. Eventually, someone will go off traveling and bring it back to this community. They will be stuck with that stigma for the rest of their lives. We all make our choices.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by ponyboy » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:14 pm

Absolutely. Cancel right now so you can at least recover your money.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:20 pm

CULater wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Just saw news report on ABC that a S. Korean flight attendant was in and out of LAX and has been diagnosed with coronavirus. They are now attempting to disinfect LAX.
“We’re disinfecting LAX every hour,” the mayor told reporters Wednesday. “We’re making sure that those points of entry and those places where we could see somebody come in and create a vector are secure as we can possibly make them, knowing you can never have 100% security.”
https://timesofsandiego.com/tech/2020/0 ... ronavirus/
My wife was telling me about that last evening. Possibility that the flight attendant might have been a "super spreader".

The woman had also serviced a flight from Tel Aviv, Israel, to Seoul on Feb. 15, South Korea's Center for Disease Control said. ... A church group was on the flight and at least 30 members of the group were diagnosed with coronavirus, South Korean authorities said.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/loca ... t/2318039/
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Luckywon » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:23 pm

jjwpls wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:55 am
Hi Everyone,

Two weeks ago I booked a flight for my daughter and wife to Los Angels in mid March, so that they could spend a few days at the Disneyland.

(.....)

So I am considering canceling the flight to avoid the worst case scenario, even though losing about $600. Would you think this decision is rational?

All in my opinion: In the face of a pandemic a place like Disneyland is a recipe for a public health disaster. It's likely to be closed in mid March. If it's not, I wouldn't go there even if Mickey and Pluto were giving me a private tour.

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by ImmigrantSaver » Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:48 pm

JaneyLH wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Getting on a plane for a 15-hour flight to Sydney in about 10 days. Then on a cruise ship for 12 days. Then driving around NZ for 20 days. Then back on a plan for 15-hour flight home. All paid for in advance, of course. We're planning to go at this point. If we were 85 rather than 65, I'm sure we'd cancel though. :confused
This sounds amazing!! Go and enjoy yourselves! NZ has some breathtaking nature (haven't been to Australia yet but sure it's great)! If you truly worried, maybe skip the cruise part? And don't listen to panicky folks :wink:

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Re: Cancel flights due to coronavirus concerns?

Post by Luckywon » Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:35 pm

ImmigrantSaver wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:48 pm
JaneyLH wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Getting on a plane for a 15-hour flight to Sydney in about 10 days. Then on a cruise ship for 12 days. Then driving around NZ for 20 days. Then back on a plan for 15-hour flight home. All paid for in advance, of course. We're planning to go at this point. If we were 85 rather than 65, I'm sure we'd cancel though. :confused
This sounds amazing!! Go and enjoy yourselves! NZ has some breathtaking nature (haven't been to Australia yet but sure it's great)! If you truly worried, maybe skip the cruise part? And don't listen to panicky folks :wink:
ImmigrantSaver wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:48 pm
And don't listen to panicky folks :wink:
Like the CDC official who stated Tuesday that she expects coronavirus to spread at a community level in the U.S. and that disruptions to daily life could be severe? BTW that was before a case of local transmission occurred in Northern California.

When the CDC states that "Now is the time ......to begin preparing for the possible spread of #COVID19" I would not call it panicky to think that it may be prudent not to plan to go through with a 32 day drip abroad. I recognize you are not talking about visiting the U.S. but there is no reason to expect that any place on earth where tourism occurs will be immune. Do you want to be on a boat for 12 days, starting a week from now, with people from all over the world when even today the virus has been identified in 48 countries including all the most populated countries on the planet?

My advice would be to cancel your plans and appeal for a refund. I have heard of instances where normal refund policies are being waived, given the circumstances.

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