Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 3CT_Paddler » Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Artful Dodger » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:06 pm

We had been planning a trip to southern Italy for late April and into May, but had not pulled the trigger on tickets. I was still planning to go when your thread started but getting more concerned. Friday CDC raised the threat level from 2 (exercise caution) to 3 (recommend only essential travel). That put the nail in the coffin. Along with potentially getting sick, I was worried about quarantine and/or delays getting back into the country.

I’m also still getting over the flu and respiratory issues I picked up on our flight returning from Mexico the end of last month.
Last edited by Artful Dodger on Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by whodidntante » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:08 pm

backofbeyond wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:39 am
Some of you act like you want to live forever.
Yep. There is such a thing as taking too little risk.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 3CT_Paddler » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:10 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:43 am
4) Even if you lived in Wuhan China, you'd be about as likely to die from the regular seasonal flu as Corona virus.
Based on what statistics? China's admittedly flawed statistics say that there were only 144 deaths from the flu last year.

On the flip side, there is some reason to believe that the US cooks the annual flu deaths on the high side (30-60k annually) as any type of pneumonia related death is lumped in under flu related deaths.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm

3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:31 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:29 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:19 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:12 am
I think the NoCal case is a game changer here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/heal ... ornia.html

Inability of tracing the transmission seems to indicate very stealth transmission capabilities.

Assume that people who traveled out of China (or any other hotspot) before travel shut-down has some probability of being carriers.
Game changer? Assume everyone in the world will be exposed to it, a smaller percentage will get it, a large percentage of them will have minimal symptoms, a small percentage will have flulike symptoms, and a very small number will die. Every country is getting it. The idea of a quarantine is not serious. It's just going to spread and may be an annual thing like the regular flu. We'll find out in a few weeks. But I'd be very surprised if every state and every country doesn't start reporting cases.

The reason I think it's silly to complain about there not being enough tests is - and I DON'T know every thing - what are you going to do about it? I know I've posted it a million times but there's no treatment. It's the same as the flu (except for Tamiflu) - rest, hydrate, wash your hands, don't spread it to other people.


The reason this is such a problem is that in Wuhan, the virus went from zero to needing 12,000 hospital beds in about six weeks. That’s more than one hospital bed for every thousand people. No place anywhere in the world, and especially in the US, has enough excess bed capacity or healthcare providers, or medicines to handle 1/10th of that. The purpose of quarantines is to slow the transmission of the disease so that the medical system can keep up. If we’re not testing, we don’t know where the disease is, and we don’t know who to quarantine.
Why were people hospitalized? Because they were sick and needed hospitalization? Because they are a dictatorship and can imprison anyone who might be sick to be seen as doing something? What were the 12,000 hospital beds for? In USA you would be admitted if you were clinically sick and needed to be hospitalized. Who knows why they put people in hospitals? I wouldn't worry about it too much.

Again - in six weeks we'll actually have some idea as to whether to worry or the panickers were a tad histrionic. Until then go outside and go for a walk and enjoy life.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:33 pm

AlphaLess wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:25 am
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:19 am
AlphaLess wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:12 am
I think the NoCal case is a game changer here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/heal ... ornia.html

Inability of tracing the transmission seems to indicate very stealth transmission capabilities.

Assume that people who traveled out of China (or any other hotspot) before travel shut-down has some probability of being carriers.
Game changer? Assume everyone in the world will be exposed to it, a smaller percentage will get it, a large percentage of them will have minimal symptoms, a small percentage will have flulike symptoms, and a very small number will die. Every country is getting it. The idea of a quarantine is not serious. It's just going to spread and may be an annual thing like the regular flu. We'll find out in a few weeks. But I'd be very surprised if every state and every country doesn't start reporting cases.

The reason I think it's silly to complain about there not being enough tests is - and I DON'T know every thing - what are you going to do about it? I know I've posted it a million times but there's no treatment. It's the same as the flu (except for Tamiflu) - rest, hydrate, wash your hands, don't spread it to other people.


There are not enough hospital beds, ICUs, antiviral drugs, masks, health care workers, etc, to handle even a 5-8% population infection in a short period of time.
No evidence antiviral drugs do anything. Masks for sure do nothing. Hospital beds are for treating illness, not hotel rooms. The only real treatment is ICU stay, intubation, and pressor medications for people that are near death. Anything else is just theater.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by dru808 » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:12 pm

You’re only overreacting if it doesn’t spread large scale in the uk. If it does, you aren’t.

Kidding, go with your gut on this one. I’d be less worried about contracting in the uk and more worried being stuck on a plane breathing that recirculated air.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by unclescrooge » Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:33 pm

3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
Recheck your facts.

Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 15-30%. It is estimated that 3% of the global population died. That is not the mortality rate!

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 3CT_Paddler » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:11 pm

Recheck your facts.

Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 15-30%. It is estimated that 3% of the global population died. That is not the mortality rate!
https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

You might want to recheck your facts. According to this Stanford write up on the Spanish Flu the mortality rate of those infected was exactly as I said.
The influenza virus had a profound virulence, with a mortality rate at 2.5% compared to the previous influenza epidemics, which were less than 0.1%.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 3CT_Paddler » Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:23 pm

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
And I provided a case where we know the exact Y (Diamond Princess cruise situation). Number of fatalities just went up to 7.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Watty » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:56 am

Watty wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:38 am
Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So we decided to hold off and see how it develops.
That is where we are at too.

We usually take one big(for us) trip year that we normally take in spring or early fall and we decided to not take a big trip this spring and wait to see how the fall looks.

We are planning a road trip in a few weeks where we might be about two days drive from home.
We were going take a road trip and drive to Florida or Texas in the next week or two but will all the new cases that have come up in the last few days we are scrubbing those plans too and will be staying close to home.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sunny_socal » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:26 am

Dr. Drew says this is not a big deal. Hopefully cooler heads will soon prevail.
(My prediction: this will soon burn out, especially since summer is right around the corner...)

https://summit.news/2020/03/02/you-need ... mongering/
“The press should not be reporting medical stories as though they know how to report it,” he continued.

“If we have a pandemic, I won’t know how to tell that we’re actually having a pandemic because everything is an emergency.” Drew further explained, adding “People that are infectious disease specialists, the CDC, the epidemiologists, need to take this very seriously. The press needs to shut up because you’re more likely to die of influenza right now.”

“Where was the press during the Mediterranean corona outbreak where the fatality rate was 41%?” Dr Drew asserted, adding “If they wanted to get crazed about something, why didn’t they get crazed about MERS or SARS? This is an overblown press created hysteria.”

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by lthenderson » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:52 am

3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:23 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
And I provided a case where we know the exact Y (Diamond Princess cruise situation). Number of fatalities just went up to 7.
My problem with this scenario is the use of the population of the Diamond Princess as being representative of the average population around the world. I would guess that the population of the Diamond Princess skews heavily towards older adults with prior health conditions, exactly the population the virus affects the most. So just because the Diamond Princess has a high mortality rate doesn't mean the rest of the world will see a similar mortality rate.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by TXJeff » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:55 am

Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation . . .
If you are considering upcoming travel, be sure to check local countries' virus fighting efforts/policies, in addition to recommendations from US sources.

For example, in France, Macron has ordered all gatherings of over 5,000 people canceled. One result: the Louvre is now closed, as it gets more than 5,000 visitors per day.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Coato » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 am

We have a four-person trip to Washington state with my two 70-year old parents and DW April 4-10. I'm curious to see what happens with airline and any other news. I seem to be the only one even thinking this is an issue so it would be awkward to even keep addressing it without more definitive news.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 8foot7 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:15 am

Coato wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 am
We have a four-person trip to Washington state with my two 70-year old parents and DW April 4-10. I'm curious to see what happens with airline and any other news. I seem to be the only one even thinking this is an issue so it would be awkward to even keep addressing it without more definitive news.
At this point I would not take two 70yos to Washington state given the estimate of 150 to 1500 infections in the Seattle area as of a couple of hours ago. Most experts seem to believe there may be even an order of magnitude more infections than we realize due to lack of testing and that the numbers will seem to explode in the next weeks but may be mostly reflective of existing cases that simply are brought to the surface.

https://twitter.com/NYTNational/status/ ... 8316843008

"A cluster of cases at a nursing facility in Kirkland, WA, have made the town a point of concern in the spread of the coronavirus. Officials now see growing indications that the virus spread undetected in the Seattle suburbs for weeks."

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by blackburnian » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:18 am

TXJeff wrote: For example, in France, Macron has ordered all gatherings of over 5,000 people canceled. One result: the Louvre is now closed, as it gets more than 5,000 visitors per day.
Actually it closed because the staff refused to work; it was not closed by the government. It's unknown whether it will stay closed. See https://www.france24.com/en/20200302-lo ... irus-risks: "Union representative Christian Galani questioned why the Louvre isn’t covered by the new ban on large indoor gatherings, telling AP, “You will easily admit that the Louvre Museum is a confined space and that it receives more than 5,000 people a day.” Culture Minister Frank Reister had argued on France-Info radio that Louvre visitors move from room to room, which doesn't present the same risk as a closed concert hall, for example.

However, the overall point remains a good one. Many events have indeed been canceled.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Coato » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 am

8foot7 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:15 am
Coato wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 am
We have a four-person trip to Washington state with my two 70-year old parents and DW April 4-10. I'm curious to see what happens with airline and any other news. I seem to be the only one even thinking this is an issue so it would be awkward to even keep addressing it without more definitive news.
At this point I would not take two 70yos to Washington state given the estimate of 150 to 1500 infections in the Seattle area as of a couple of hours ago. Most experts seem to believe there may be even an order of magnitude more infections than we realize due to lack of testing and that the numbers will seem to explode in the next weeks but may be mostly reflective of existing cases that simply are brought to the surface.

https://twitter.com/NYTNational/status/ ... 8316843008

"A cluster of cases at a nursing facility in Kirkland, WA, have made the town a point of concern in the spread of the coronavirus. Officials now see growing indications that the virus spread undetected in the Seattle suburbs for weeks."
I agree. Unfortunately, my dad is a Vietnam vet and my mom's (out-of-bounds term) belief is that whatever happens is part of the plan, so both are being truculent. I keep hoping that the airlines cancel the flight.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 3CT_Paddler » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:01 am

lthenderson wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:52 am
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:23 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
And I provided a case where we know the exact Y (Diamond Princess cruise situation). Number of fatalities just went up to 7.
My problem with this scenario is the use of the population of the Diamond Princess as being representative of the average population around the world. I would guess that the population of the Diamond Princess skews heavily towards older adults with prior health conditions, exactly the population the virus affects the most. So just because the Diamond Princess has a high mortality rate doesn't mean the rest of the world will see a similar mortality rate.
That is a fair point. Right now the numbers seems to point to a sliding scale of mortality rate with over 80 at much higher rates (10%+) and healthy under 50 population closer to 0.1%.

The other key is that when a healthcare system is overwhelmed like the Wuhan area and there are limited beds and ventilators available, you see the mortality rate climb. Even in a Western nation it is critical that healthcare facilities are able to actually have space to treat everyone.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:08 am

Be prudent. Stay home until scope of problem is known.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by halfnine » Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:00 pm

Keep in mind that if you travel to a locale after a crisis that the locals need to be at a point where they are able and willing to have you. Many years ago I traveled to Sri Lanka after the tsunami. They had rebuilt to the point that they desperately wanted travelers but hadn't gotten to the point where the infrastructure met the needs required by many travelers. As my needs can be very basic it was a win-win for both of us.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:41 pm

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:31 pm

Why were people hospitalized? Because they were sick and needed hospitalization? Because they are a dictatorship and can imprison anyone who might be sick to be seen as doing something? What were the 12,000 hospital beds for? In USA you would be admitted if you were clinically sick and needed to be hospitalized. Who knows why they put people in hospitals? I wouldn't worry about it too much.

Again - in six weeks we'll actually have some idea as to whether to worry or the panickers were a tad histrionic. Until then go outside and go for a walk and enjoy life.
I can guarantee that the Chinese government will not readily admit to anything that puts them in a bad light. If anything, they’re underreporting what’s been going on over there. Given that they’re admitting that nearly 3,000 have already died in that area, 12,000 hospitalized actually seems a little low to me.

Again, China would never close the entire country for a month, probably putting their country into a recession, unless they had to. There’s no precedent for them doing that.

But hey, it’s just a little flu. I’m sure it will all be fine.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by beehivehave » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:46 pm

sunny_socal wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:26 am
Dr. Drew says this is not a big deal. Hopefully cooler heads will soon prevail.
(My prediction: this will soon burn out, especially since summer is right around the corner...)

https://summit.news/2020/03/02/you-need ... mongering/
“The press should not be reporting medical stories as though they know how to report it,” he continued.

“If we have a pandemic, I won’t know how to tell that we’re actually having a pandemic because everything is an emergency.” Drew further explained, adding “People that are infectious disease specialists, the CDC, the epidemiologists, need to take this very seriously. The press needs to shut up because you’re more likely to die of influenza right now.”

“Where was the press during the Mediterranean corona outbreak where the fatality rate was 41%?” Dr Drew asserted, adding “If they wanted to get crazed about something, why didn’t they get crazed about MERS or SARS? This is an overblown press created hysteria.”
I always take medical advice from TV quacks.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by boomer » Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:59 pm

Coato wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 am
8foot7 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:15 am
Coato wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 am
We have a four-person trip to Washington state with my two 70-year old parents and DW April 4-10. I'm curious to see what happens with airline and any other news. I seem to be the only one even thinking this is an issue so it would be awkward to even keep addressing it without more definitive news.
At this point I would not take two 70yos to Washington state given the estimate of 150 to 1500 infections in the Seattle area as of a couple of hours ago. Most experts seem to believe there may be even an order of magnitude more infections than we realize due to lack of testing and that the numbers will seem to explode in the next weeks but may be mostly reflective of existing cases that simply are brought to the surface.

https://twitter.com/NYTNational/status/ ... 8316843008

"A cluster of cases at a nursing facility in Kirkland, WA, have made the town a point of concern in the spread of the coronavirus. Officials now see growing indications that the virus spread undetected in the Seattle suburbs for weeks."
I agree. Unfortunately, my dad is a Vietnam vet and my mom's (out-of-bounds term) belief is that whatever happens is part of the plan, so both are being truculent. I keep hoping that the airlines cancel the flight.
There was a high school student from Jackson High School in Snowhomish county that was diagnosed a few days ago. They closed the school for three days to deep clean. I wonder how many other students have it but are not that sick and haven't gone to the doctor?

We would love to go on some cruises this spring and summer. But probably not the way things look. I really, really don't want to get marooned in a foreign country or quarantined on a cruise ship. Technically, I don't want to get the flu either. But there is always the risk of getting sick.

And speaking of being tested for the flu, most of the people that I know have high deductible health plans. They aren't going to go in to the doctor unless they feel exceptionally sick.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by iamlucky13 » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:59 am

Coato wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 am
We have a four-person trip to Washington state with my two 70-year old parents and DW April 4-10. I'm curious to see what happens with airline and any other news. I seem to be the only one even thinking this is an issue so it would be awkward to even keep addressing it without more definitive news.
I'd suggest doing what the experts are recommending and practice proactive hygiene and work on forming low risk habits like maintaining 1+ meter distance from people when possible and avoiding touching your face.

While they are in an age group with a significantly elevated risk of death if they contract the disease, that risk also significantly overlaps with pre-existing health conditions. If your parents are in good-health, that's a significant reason to lower your concern. Also, even if the more pessimistic estimates made today about the number of existing unknown cases and the rate of spread turn out to be true, the disease will have only affected a tiny percentage of the population by the time of your visit. Their individual risk should remain low.

Share your concerns with your parents, then respect that they're capable of making their own decisions about risk, and enjoy the trip if it goes forward as planned. You should have plenty of opportunities for a memorable trip while still generally observing the WHO and CDC's recommendations for hygiene and avoiding prolonged close contact with others.

Besides, if the pessimistic forecasts are correct, they're not really at more risk in the long term in Washington than at home.
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:41 pm
I can guarantee that the Chinese government will not readily admit to anything that puts them in a bad light. If anything, they’re underreporting what’s been going on over there.
One of the co-authors of the following is American. Her data matches the numbers the Chinese government is sharing. I'm generally highly skeptical of the Chinese government, but there are too many researchers and medical personnel from too many nations too directly involved for the authoritarians and bureaucrats to control the story without conspicuously blocking those people from doing their jobs.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2762130

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:19 am

3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:10 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:43 am
4) Even if you lived in Wuhan China, you'd be about as likely to die from the regular seasonal flu as Corona virus.
Based on what statistics? China's admittedly flawed statistics say that there were only 144 deaths from the flu last year.

On the flip side, there is some reason to believe that the US cooks the annual flu deaths on the high side (30-60k annually) as any type of pneumonia related death is lumped in under flu related deaths.
Based of U.S. CDC methodology, the numbers are much higher. China doesn't count pneumonia caused by the flu as a death from the flu, which makes little sense because pneumonia is what typically kills flu patients (and COVID-19 for that matter). But under the U.S. methodology, the estimates are as much as 17,000 between October 2019 and January 2020.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

For what it's worth, I just returned from Europe. If one turned off the news, you'd have no idea there was anything amiss. Airports on both sides were reasonably busy for the time of year. There were a few more face masks in the airport than normal, but still fewer than 1% of travelers.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by midareff » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:40 am

I had a three week travel (cruise) booked for the Mediterranean starting May 17, 2020. Heard from the company who is allowing date changes with minimum forfeitures and I backed it up a year. Have another booked for September 15th, Oslo Norway to Barcelona and will leave that will leave alone for now.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Durzo » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:58 am

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
I just Google "Covid-19 fatality rate" under the news section. The first 3 headlines all say some version "of the known cases", "estimated to be", "waiting on further data to help". Do we not want to make educated decisions with the incomplete data we have? I don't think anyone is saying they have all the answers and the high volatility of the market parallels the incomplete data. I don't people are making stuff up. People are just trying to see if we have representative samples and then extrapolate based on the few data we have,

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Finridge » Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:27 pm

Durzo wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:58 am
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote:
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.

The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.

Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.

I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
I just Google "Covid-19 fatality rate" under the news section. The first 3 headlines all say some version "of the known cases", "estimated to be", "waiting on further data to help". Do we not want to make educated decisions with the incomplete data we have? I don't think anyone is saying they have all the answers and the high volatility of the market parallels the incomplete data. I don't people are making stuff up. People are just trying to see if we have representative samples and then extrapolate based on the few data we have,
This is a great point - the data is not "being made up" but being extrapolated from the data. In epidemiology almost all numbers are estimates in so far you will almost never have the exact numbers of cases such that you can provide exact numbers. But the numbers aren't just guesses either. Rather, epidemiologists draw on the available data and use statistical methods to generate estimates.

And this is always the case. When you read that the Black Death killed half of Europe's population, that is an estimate. When you read the numbers of dead and the mortality rates for the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, the 1947 "Asian Flu" Pandemic, the numerous outbreaks in the 1700's and 1800's of smallpox, cholera, measles, etc.-- These are estimates! All of them!

If you want exact numbers, you will need to wait until after you are dead and then some--in other words, you will never get them. Now, if we wait long enough, we will get more accurate estimates (but they will still be estimates), and for the best estimates, you will have to wait until after the pandemic is over.

But the epidemiologists have enough data to see that there is a rapidly growing outbreak and it is deadly. They don't need exact numbers to see when it is time to take action. When your house is on fire, the fire department doesn't wait until they can see with full certainty exactly where each flame is. They get to work putting the fire out ASAP.

And an important point here is that they are not waiting for the numbers of dead to get higher than those killed annually by the flu to take this seriously. I know this is what many of us here seem to be thinking they should do. But if they wait until it's killed more than the regular flu, then it would have been too late. The point of the quarantines, shut downs, travel restrictions, etc. is "nip it in the bud" BEFORE lots of people die.

And this is why we're seeing these kinds of measures so fast, and can expect to see more of them, and in more places. And this will impact your travel. You should expect this.

(Ironically, these measures will hopefully prevent the numbers form getting really bad. Because that's the goal. And if that happens, you'll see a lot of people saying "See, it was just hysteria--a total overreaction" with little knowledge or appreciation that we were saved from what could have been a much more severe and deadly outbreak. If this happens, you are going to be some people who are alive only because such measures were taken smearing at the experts who saved their lives.) But I digress... Whether you agree with what's happening or now, expect your lives to be impacted. Be prepared for this. And if you travel, expect your travel plans may be disrupted.

And this is excellent time to prepare yourself for the likely impact on your investment portfolio. Expect high volatility (wild swings). Expect that the economy will be hit hard and that your portfolio may dive. So this should not come as a surprise and maybe cause you to panic. And refresh in your mind why we know that market timing does not work and that the best strategy is to "stay the course." Because that is what you will want to do.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sunny_socal » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:03 pm

I think more people have died of the regular Flu than Corona during this panic. The fear-mongers just don't want to mention this.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by boomergeneration » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:22 pm

You are not overreacting. I live in Seattle; right now we have 10 deaths attributed to coronavirus and many more infected than the figures show. Until a few days ago it was very hard to get tested, and even now is limited by testing capability. Trevor Bedford, the scientist who discovered the first person that got the coronavirus through community spread, has an excellent blog: https://bedford.io/blog/ He thinks we now have 500 or more cases in our area and it is rapidly spreading. I wish the general public realized it is the lack of testing that is keeping the number of cases low.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:50 pm

sunny_socal wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:03 pm
I think more people have died of the regular Flu than Corona during this panic. The fear-mongers just don't want to mention this.
You can’t compare raw numbers from an established virus that has been in the general population for months to something that is just now getting to the general population. Where COVID-19 has gotten into the population, the fatality rates appear to be an order of magnitude worse than the flu.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:32 pm

boomergeneration wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:22 pm
You are not overreacting. I live in Seattle; right now we have 10 deaths attributed to coronavirus and many more infected than the figures show. Until a few days ago it was very hard to get tested, and even now is limited by testing capability. Trevor Bedford, the scientist who discovered the first person that got the coronavirus through community spread, has an excellent blog: https://bedford.io/blog/ He thinks we now have 500 or more cases in our area and it is rapidly spreading. I wish the general public realized it is the lack of testing that is keeping the number of cases low.
On the flip side, if it is spreading silently, that means the vast majority of people who get it are not experiencing severe symptoms. The severe cases in Seattle were mostly from a nursing home- places where deaths from pneumonia causing pathogens are exceedingly common.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sawhorse » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:18 pm

boomergeneration wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:22 pm
You are not overreacting. I live in Seattle; right now we have 10 deaths attributed to coronavirus and many more infected than the figures show. Until a few days ago it was very hard to get tested, and even now is limited by testing capability. Trevor Bedford, the scientist who discovered the first person that got the coronavirus through community spread, has an excellent blog: https://bedford.io/blog/ He thinks we now have 500 or more cases in our area and it is rapidly spreading. I wish the general public realized it is the lack of testing that is keeping the number of cases low.
The lack of testing is largely down to mistakes by the CDC last month. German scientists developed an accurate test that was officially endorsed by the WHO. Some countries have been conducting tens of thousands of the tests every day. Instead of using the WHO test, the CDC tried to develop its own test, and their initial version turned out to not be that accurate. Their new version seems to be more accurate, but it seems their testing capacity is limited to 400 a day. The CDC announced today that it anticipates increasing its daily testing capacity into the thousands within a week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/heal ... g-cdc.html

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by lazydavid » Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:29 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:50 pm
sunny_socal wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:03 pm
I think more people have died of the regular Flu than Corona during this panic. The fear-mongers just don't want to mention this.
You can’t compare raw numbers from an established virus that has been in the general population for months to something that is just now getting to the general population. Where COVID-19 has gotten into the population, the fatality rates appear to be an order of magnitude worse than the flu.
I agree with you, but the problem I have with the fearmongering is it's provoking an asymmetric response. My Father-in-law is losing his mind over COVID-19, and as a result we just had to cancel a trip to New Orleans--despite the fact that there are ZERO known cases in the entire state of Louisiana, and the first reported case in the US was 2 miles from our house. So the risk there is actually pretty low.

Meanwhile, he refuses to get vaccinated for influenza or pneumonia, never washes his hands, and won't take any vitamin supplements such as Vitamin C or Zinc to help his immune system. So he won't even do the simple things that can reduce the (currently) much more significant risk that he'll die of the flu or pneumonia, yet his watching of the news has him turning his (and our) life upside down.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by azanon » Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm

The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.

100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by beehivehave » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:14 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:29 pm
quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:50 pm
sunny_socal wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:03 pm
I think more people have died of the regular Flu than Corona during this panic. The fear-mongers just don't want to mention this.
You can’t compare raw numbers from an established virus that has been in the general population for months to something that is just now getting to the general population. Where COVID-19 has gotten into the population, the fatality rates appear to be an order of magnitude worse than the flu.
I agree with you, but the problem I have with the fearmongering is it's provoking an asymmetric response. My Father-in-law is losing his mind over COVID-19, and as a result we just had to cancel a trip to New Orleans--despite the fact that there are ZERO known cases in the entire state of Louisiana, and the first reported case in the US was 2 miles from our house. So the risk there is actually pretty low.

Meanwhile, he refuses to get vaccinated for influenza or pneumonia, never washes his hands, and won't take any vitamin supplements such as Vitamin C or Zinc to help his immune system. So he won't even do the simple things that can reduce the (currently) much more significant risk that he'll die of the flu or pneumonia, yet his watching of the news has him turning his (and our) life upside down.
OK, so he should get vaccines and wash his hands. Whether he really could use C and zinc is another issue.
But is this also "fear-mongering":?
The World Health Organization urged governments around the world to pull out "all the stops" in the fight against the increasingly pervasive and deadly outbreak of the new coronavirus.
"This is not a drill. This is not the time for giving up. This is not a time of for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday.
"Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades," he said. "Now is the time to act on those plans."
The U.N. health agency called on all nations to "push this virus back."

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by beehivehave » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:31 pm

azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.
100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).
The fatality rate estimates of the virus are 1% to 4%.
If that is accurate, it means even if just 10% of the population gets it (compared to 5% to 20% for the flu and unlike the flu nobody can get vaccinated) deaths will number 360,000 to over a million, at least 10 times (1,000 per day) the number of traffic deaths.
So there is reason for concern.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:39 pm

beehivehave wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:31 pm
azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.
100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).
The fatality rate estimates of the virus are 1% to 4%.
If that is accurate, it means even if just 10% of the population gets it (compared to 5% to 20% for the flu and unlike the flu nobody can get vaccinated) deaths will number 360,000 to over a million, at least 10 times (1,000 per day) the number of traffic deaths.
So there is reason for concern.
"Just 10%" is an enormous number. The portion of Chinese who have gotten the virus is .01% and new cases there have slowed to a trickle.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by azanon » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:43 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:31 pm
azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.
100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).
The fatality rate estimates of the virus are 1% to 4%.
If that is accurate, it means even if just 10% of the population gets it (compared to 5% to 20% for the flu and unlike the flu nobody can get vaccinated) deaths will number 360,000 to over a million, at least 10 times (1,000 per day) the number of traffic deaths.
So there is reason for concern.
"Just 10%" is an enormous number. The portion of Chinese who have gotten the virus is .01% and new cases there have slowed to a trickle.
Exactly

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by quantAndHold » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm

azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:43 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:31 pm
azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.
100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).
The fatality rate estimates of the virus are 1% to 4%.
If that is accurate, it means even if just 10% of the population gets it (compared to 5% to 20% for the flu and unlike the flu nobody can get vaccinated) deaths will number 360,000 to over a million, at least 10 times (1,000 per day) the number of traffic deaths.
So there is reason for concern.
"Just 10%" is an enormous number. The portion of Chinese who have gotten the virus is .01% and new cases there have slowed to a trickle.
Exactly
Because China locked down the entire country for a month.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:48 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:50 pm
sunny_socal wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:03 pm
I think more people have died of the regular Flu than Corona during this panic. The fear-mongers just don't want to mention this.
You can’t compare raw numbers from an established virus that has been in the general population for months to something that is just now getting to the general population. Where COVID-19 has gotten into the population, the fatality rates appear to be an order of magnitude worse than the flu.
Yes. The problem is the potential for many deaths. Estimates of case fatality rates (the percentage of symptomatic people who die) are around 0.1% for the flu and the consensus seems at least 2% for the coronavirus. Just because a large number haven't died so far doesn't mean things won't get worse. Maybe not, but the potential is there.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:55 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:43 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:31 pm
azanon wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
The most dangerous part of a trip from the US to the UK/Ireland, will be the drive to/from the Airport, and the driving once you get there. The 2nd most dangerous part is statistically insignificant, in comparison to the first.
100 people die in car accidents (on average) in the US alone, every single day (source: wiki).
The fatality rate estimates of the virus are 1% to 4%.
If that is accurate, it means even if just 10% of the population gets it (compared to 5% to 20% for the flu and unlike the flu nobody can get vaccinated) deaths will number 360,000 to over a million, at least 10 times (1,000 per day) the number of traffic deaths.
So there is reason for concern.
"Just 10%" is an enormous number. The portion of Chinese who have gotten the virus is .01% and new cases there have slowed to a trickle.
Exactly
Because China locked down the entire country for a month.
It's hard to known exactly what the drivers were, but it's not clear that restrictions on movement are necessarily effective. What is known to be effective is quickly identifying those infected. There may also be a significant seasonality benefit coming up over the next few weeks as we get past cold and flu season. I should also note that South Korean cases are likewise dropping, and they do not live in a totalitarian state.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by iamlucky13 » Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:46 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:19 am
For what it's worth, I just returned from Europe. If one turned off the news, you'd have no idea there was anything amiss. Airports on both sides were reasonably busy for the time of year. There were a few more face masks in the airport than normal, but still fewer than 1% of travelers.
The impact will vary depending where you go. Parts of Italy are locked down even to the point of forbidding people from going to church.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 2cents2 » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:22 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:32 pm

On the flip side, if it is spreading silently, that means the vast majority of people who get it are not experiencing severe symptoms. The severe cases in Seattle were mostly from a nursing home- places where deaths from pneumonia causing pathogens are exceedingly common.
On the other hand, you won't have a COD listed as SARS-coV-2 unless you test for it. So, it is possible there have been deaths caused by this that have not been recorded as such.

There was at least one case that UW was testing for Flu--they went back and tested for SARS-coV-2 and it was positive. This case was on 20 Feb. https://nextstrain.org/ncov
Also, there were 2 deaths from Life Care that they went back and tested: A female in her 80s, resident of LifeCare, never hospitalized, died on 2/26/20
A male in his 50s, resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at Harborview Medical Center and died on 2/26/20
I suspect the sheer number of deaths from one place probably caused increased attention and they went back and tested the two who died on the 26th.

There was an employee at Amazon that tested positive: "The employee went home feeling unwell on Tuesday, February 25 and has not entered Amazon offices since that time. We received the news today that this employee tested positive for COVID-19."
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/corona ... CL75367PU/

I am reminded of another disease--used to be common in childhood called Ruebella. For most children it was a relatively mild disease. But, the disease for someone who was pregnant could have devastating effects on a fetus. This SARS-coV-2 is relatively mild for about 80% of the folks who contract it, but devastating for some.

The folks who are the sickest will require a lot of care and resources. That is why the goal should be to slow the amount of infections to the best of our ability so that the health care providers are not overwhelmed.

I guess the good news for us older folks is that some of the folks who are in charge of the response to this situation are in one of the high risk categories (over the age of 60).

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Random Musings » Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:27 pm

To date, it appears that the US government response to this is to let the virus take its natural course. Some companies are going to allow employees to work at home, looks like some token 2 week school closures as well. Sports are business as usual, except the NBA is really clamping down. A few more Fed cuts will probably stop the spread here. :oops:

Testing will ramp up the number of reported cases over the next few weeks. When it comes to travel, perhaps pick an area having lower population densities and gave an extended stay. Or something like a 2 month backpacking excursion.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:22 am

Random Musings wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:27 pm
When it comes to travel, perhaps pick an area having lower population densities and gave an extended stay. Or something like a 2 month backpacking excursion.

RM
Funny you mention that. Just got to Ecuador for Avenue of Volcanoes hike. It’s not quite a backpacking tour or 2 months, as it is organized. But it’s only a few people.Flying increased my chances of contracting it while this remote tour reduces the chances. So I think I am even :D

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by harvestbook » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:58 am

Random Musings wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:27 pm
the NBA is really clamping down.
I watched a game last night and noticed how many times the players basically rubbed faces, licked their fingers before taking the ball at the free-throw line, and how close their contact was just during regular play. They still high-fived each other. The only concession I saw was they only fist-bumped fans on the way to the locker room instead of high-fiving them. The NBA memo basically was "Don't touch fans and don't sign autographs." Of course, the 20,000+ fans in attendance were all going to the same restrooms and concession stands, so there's that. It was pretty easy to imagine an epidemic cancelling games and maybe a season.

I'm convinced the U.S. won't take it seriously until a celebrity catches it. Suddenly it will seem important.

Sometimes overreacting is a perfectly rational reaction. I like to do it early to beat the crowd, so I'm over it when the crowd panics.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

2cents2
Posts: 468
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 11:31 am

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by 2cents2 » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:01 am

harvestbook wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:58 am

I'm convinced the U.S. won't take it seriously until a celebrity catches it. Suddenly it will seem important.
Not in the US, but to your point:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... s-12510062

https://globalnews.ca/news/6638555/coro ... diagnosis/

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