Durzo wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:58 am
Ornery Old Guy wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 pm
3CT_Paddler wrote: ↑
Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 26, 2020 3:28 pm
Nobody knows the denominator. Anyone who tells you the fatality rate is making stuff up
They are not "making stuff up". They might be working with incomplete data, but that is all you can do.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship is a case where we know exactly how many of the 3,700 have been infected (705 people) with 6 fatalities so far. That is close to the 1-3% case fatality rate we have seen reported in other areas, and this is a case where we know exactly how many cases there are with comprehensive and regular testing and quarantine.
Consider that the Spanish Flu of 1918 - which was devastating globally - had a mortality rate around 2-3%. The difference with the Spanish Flu was that it impacted healthy young people as much as the over 50 population. This one seems to mostly affect the over 50 population.
I wouldn't panic, but I wouldn't belittle the potential of the coronavirus to affect us all.
When the formula is Mortality = X/Y, and you have no idea what Y is, you're making stuff up.
I just Google "Covid-19 fatality rate" under the news section. The first 3 headlines all say some version "of the known cases", "estimated to be", "waiting on further data to help". Do we not want to make educated decisions with the incomplete data we have? I don't think anyone is saying they have all the answers and the high volatility of the market parallels the incomplete data. I don't people are making stuff up. People are just trying to see if we have representative samples and then extrapolate based on the few data we have,
This is a great point - the data is not "being made up" but being extrapolated from the data. In epidemiology almost all numbers are estimates in so far you will almost never have the exact numbers of cases such that you can provide exact numbers. But the numbers aren't just guesses either. Rather, epidemiologists draw on the available data and use statistical methods to generate estimates.
And this is always the case. When you read that the Black Death killed half of Europe's population, that is an estimate. When you read the numbers of dead and the mortality rates for the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, the 1947 "Asian Flu" Pandemic, the numerous outbreaks in the 1700's and 1800's of smallpox, cholera, measles, etc.-- These are estimates! All of them!
If you want exact numbers, you will need to wait until after you are dead and then some--in other words, you will never get them. Now, if we wait long enough, we will get more accurate estimates (but they will still be estimates), and for the best estimates, you will have to wait until after the pandemic is over.
But the epidemiologists have enough data to see that there is a rapidly growing outbreak and it is deadly. They don't need exact numbers to see when it is time to take action. When your house is on fire, the fire department doesn't wait until they can see with full certainty exactly where each flame is. They get to work putting the fire out ASAP.
And an important point here is that they are not waiting for the numbers of dead to get higher than those killed annually by the flu to take this seriously. I know this is what many of us here seem to be thinking they should do. But if they wait until it's killed more than the regular flu, then it would have been too late. The point of the quarantines, shut downs, travel restrictions, etc. is "nip it in the bud" BEFORE lots of people die.
And this is why we're seeing these kinds of measures so fast, and can expect to see more of them, and in more places. And this will impact your travel. You should expect this.
(Ironically, these measures will hopefully prevent the numbers form getting really bad. Because that's the goal. And if that happens, you'll see a lot of people saying "See, it was just hysteria--a total overreaction" with little knowledge or appreciation that we were saved from what could have been a much more severe and deadly outbreak. If this happens, you are going to be some people who are alive only because such measures were taken smearing at the experts who saved their lives.) But I digress... Whether you agree with what's happening or now, expect your lives to be impacted. Be prepared for this. And if you travel, expect your travel plans may be disrupted.
And this is excellent time to prepare yourself for the likely impact on your investment portfolio. Expect high volatility (wild swings). Expect that the economy will be hit hard and that your portfolio may dive. So this should not come as a surprise and maybe cause you to panic. And refresh in your mind why we know that market timing does not work and that the best strategy is to "stay the course." Because that is what you will want to do.