Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

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Patzer
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Patzer » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm

tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic.
COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities.
The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities.
That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly).

So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:55 pm

caffeperfavore wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:30 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
Do you have citations for this? I'm actually interested. But, I have to ask because my UK and Canadian friends always laugh about how the NHS is characterized in the US.
I've read at least a dozen articles from British newspapers - I would bet Guardian and Independent as those are the only ones I'm familiar with. The articles come out all the time with vows from the government to increase spending to the NHS to make up for its problems. It should be easy to look up.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:59 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic.
COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities.
The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities.
That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly).

So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead.
There is a lot of guessing as to the numbers. They say about economists they've predicted 20 of the last 8 recessions. It's the same with UN/WHO - they've predicted 20 of the last 0 catastrophes. There's a panic every year that never seems to turn out as bad as they predict, and always ends up not as bad as the common flu.

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JonnyDVM
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by JonnyDVM » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:10 pm

Absolutely not an overreaction. I laughed at the Ebola hype. This is no joke. If I had plans to visit Italy I would certainly be changing them. Consider what would happen to your life if officials abruptly decided that you needed to be quarantined indefinitely before coming back to into the US. No amount of hand made Italian pasta is worth that.
It’s not “just the flu”. Stop saying that. It’s really annoying. -me

likegarden
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by likegarden » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:14 pm

I read that 10 times as many people got infected as recorded. The known cases and deaths are those people who went to see a doctor. Therefore, there might be people on a plane who carry the virus but show no effects or show that after they arrived. There was that story about a British man attending 4 days of training in Singapore and got infected by the course leader. Thereafter he flew to the Alps for 4 days of skiing, then flew home and showed symptoms 2 days later.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:19 pm

caffeperfavore wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:30 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
Do you have citations for this? I'm actually interested. But, I have to ask because my UK and Canadian friends always laugh about how the NHS is characterized in the US.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... cklog.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... 0&ito=1490

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti ... er-US.html

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... m-patients

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc ... s-45331220

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10118 ... ting-lists

https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... gures-show

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/worl ... rvice.html

Easy to find a bunch of stories like these:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/21/worl ... eaths.html

https://metro.co.uk/2019/03/29/man-down ... l-9062205/

http://www.nationalhealthexecutive.com/ ... -emergency

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:21 pm

JonnyDVM wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:10 pm
Absolutely not an overreaction. I laughed at the Ebola hype. This is no joke. If I had plans to visit Italy I would certainly be changing them. Consider what would happen to your life if officials abruptly decided that you needed to be quarantined indefinitely before coming back to into the US. No amount of hand made Italian pasta is worth that.
Oh - the risk of quarantine is real. I'm not sure the risk of real medical problems will get to be anymore than the regular ol' flu. It might. It would be the first time in a decade WHO/UN predicted accurately. But usually they say it will be a catastrophe and - while the flu is nothing to laugh at - it doesn't beat the flu.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:22 pm

likegarden wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:14 pm
I read that 10 times as many people got infected as recorded. The known cases and deaths are those people who went to see a doctor. Therefore, there might be people on a plane who carry the virus but show no effects or show that after they arrived. There was that story about a British man attending 4 days of training in Singapore and got infected by the course leader. Thereafter he flew to the Alps for 4 days of skiing, then flew home and showed symptoms 2 days later.
Next year we'll look back and see if it was no worse than the flu or worse than the flu. But so far the predictions of experts have not been great.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:24 pm

midareff wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:36 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:24 pm
midareff wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:17 pm
Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Well.... we too have a travel (cruise) scheduled for mid-May to mid-June through the Mediterranean, starting in Greece and ending in Spain. When I look at last years statistics from the regular Flu in the USA I get "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

I will be taking antibiotics (I know it's a virus), decongestants, various inhalers and a nebulizer + meds and masks. If this follows form (CDC says); "Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks." So, I'm guessing this shooting match will be over or near over come mid to third week of May.

Your take on this may be different.
Professionally I don't have anything to do with flu but I'd leave the antibiotics home and look at Tamiflu.
Antibiotics won't work on viruses, they will work if the virus triggers a bacterial respiratory infection, bacterial sinus infection or bacterial pneumonia. FWIW, the Corona virus isn't the only thing that goes around airplanes and cruise ships. Take a multi-week cruise and you will be amazed how many folks are sick with running sinusus and coughing before the end of week 2, let alone week 3 or more. I've got a regularly scheduled checkup visit to my pulmonary specialist Thursday, he may have some helpful advise or words of wisdom.
True. But nearly all of those people have viral illnesses, not bacterial, thus talk to your doctor about Tamiflu, not antibiotics.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by TomCat96 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:56 pm

Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.

No you're not overreacting. Risk of contracting the virus is not the same as risk of quarantine. It's not the same as being impacted by the virus.

# of coronavirus cases worldwide. 80,000
# of people under quarantine, lockdown, etc: 700,000,000

That's the difference.

JVV
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by JVV » Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:59 pm

I am currently in Lisbon, Portugal. I was planning two more weeks here. Just this morning, I arranged to fly back to USA tomorrow. Not worried about the virus itself, but instead about being in the wrong place at the wrong time and being quarantined in foreign country and then facing difficulties upon re-entry to USA. Just not worth it for a vacation. I will feel sigh of relief when landing tomorrow and walking out of airport....

richmondthefish
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by richmondthefish » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:03 pm

Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.

Not worth the risk. We already have real life incidents of folks being caught overseas during this. Extremely risky move to plan on going unless you can get full refunds.

Katietsu
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Katietsu » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:10 pm

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm
Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm

The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
I wish it was not true. Maybe you are a physician within a couple of hours drive of an ocean at a well funded hospital. If so, it would be good to know what is available in other parts of the country. I assumed that the entire US healthcare system was overburdened between our regional experience and the articles about the looming physician shortage. Maybe, we should consider retiring elsewhere if there are parts of the country with better access to healthcare. I do not want to imagine what would happen here if there was a widespread coronavirus outbreak. Seasonal flu has caused the hospital to operate on diversion before.

All described situations happened in US in a metro area or area with an academic center within the last 5 years. I had to resort to begging and near tears to get a neuro appt for Dad any sooner than 14 weeks after hospitalization for a serious stroke, including with the practice responsible for his inpatient care. I sat with my neighbor a couple of years ago for 16 hours in the ER waiting for a hospital room to open after transport for a diabetic coma incident. There were at least 4 patient on guerneys in the hallway when I arrived. (To be fair, that had cleared the backlog by the time left later in the day.) My immediate family member is a rheumatologist and there is a minimum 5 month wait in our area for a new patient visit. And we have it great compared to the rural areas. I have no familiarity with the current situation in the UK or Ireland. I send condolences if they are waiting for urgent care as I know how frustrating that can be.
Last edited by Katietsu on Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

hoops777
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by hoops777 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:14 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:56 pm
Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.

No you're not overreacting. Risk of contracting the virus is not the same as risk of quarantine. It's not the same as being impacted by the virus.

# of coronavirus cases worldwide. 80,000
# of people under quarantine, lockdown, etc: 700,000,000

That's the difference.
Exactly. I just do not understand how anyone just ignores it and the possible quarantine situations.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.

TomCat96
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by TomCat96 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:30 pm

hoops777 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:14 pm
TomCat96 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:56 pm
Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.

No you're not overreacting. Risk of contracting the virus is not the same as risk of quarantine. It's not the same as being impacted by the virus.

# of coronavirus cases worldwide. 80,000
# of people under quarantine, lockdown, etc: 700,000,000

That's the difference.
Exactly. I just do not understand how anyone just ignores it and the possible quarantine situations.

I have this thinking. The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly

Assume I am in Beijing. I get stopped by police. I get flagged down. I tell them what I know.
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

We all laugh, and they let me walk around freely.

Assume I am on a cruise ship. I get quarantined. I try to leave the ship I get stopped. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

They see the light. Marvel at my insight and let me get off. We joke about life and love.

Assume I am in Italy, in a hotspot area, I get my movement restricted. I try to get past the checkpoints. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

The council of Italians convenes. They agree with my assessment. We joke, jest, and drink a couple of cold ones together. I take pics with their dog.

Assume I return to the US. They bring me to a military base, say I have to be there for at least two weeks. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly

I share a mentos with them. They rib me for unique way of looking at things. They hadn't considered that. I am allowed to leave.

I just wish the rest of the world understood sometimes.

sawhorse
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sawhorse » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:35 pm

I wouldn't cancel at this time. Maybe if it spreads there closer to the date.

As far as healthcare, it will definitely cost a lot less to be treated in Europe than in the United States. I had to be treated in an emergency in Ireland in the middle of the night, and it was a great experience. Certainly much smoother and faster than my most recent emergency experience in the United States. It cost me less than €150.

ponyboy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by ponyboy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:36 pm

Im headed to switzerland/italy end of May. Its either going to be really really bad by then, or its going to be really really good. We're not cancelling anything yet...luckily almost everything is refundable.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:38 pm

Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:36 pm

My main concern is not about dying from this virus. Main concern is likelihood of contracting it in the plane ride, London tubes, and touristy places we will obviously go to. Being a tourist I will be in places where there are other tourists and I would think that will increase that likelihood.
I would not be too worried about that. Many of those sites would be shut down if this spreads to the UK (as it likely will) and becomes a major issue (unclear). It’s unlikely that you’ll be able to time your trip such that you arrive while it is still spreading without anyone noticing. The UK is actually doing a good job testing people. They have tested nearly 7k people as part of their surveillance program. The US? 426.

And in that scenario, it is quite likely that airlines would offer waivers, too, as they now do for South Korea. I’d avoid booking prepaid hotels/activities.

I have a trip booked to Europe for late March. I don’t know if it will happen as planned, but the cost of cancellation would be a redeposit fee if there is no waiver. I’ll decide later.

Finridge
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Finridge » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:44 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic.
COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities.
The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities.
That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly).

So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead.

Yes, a lot of people are about to get an unpleasant lesson in geometric progression (exponential growth). Small numbers can get really big and fast! And it's not just that small numbers get big--it's the way they do it. It's not linear. In the beginning growth is very very slow, but then gets quicker as the game progresses. Our "intuitive" common sense in evaluating the non-linear growth pattern of geometric progression is not good. In the beginning we are astounded at how slow growth is and then later shocked at how it's growing at a much greater rate than we would have intuited as possible.

We should realize the limitations of the available data. The numbers per country we are eeing are only the numbers being released by the public health care agencies of these countries as "confirmed cases." In most cases (and especially in countries where there there is active community-based transmission), you can expect this number to be lag the number actually infected.

Also, the data shows that there is not a single confirmed case of COVID-19 in all of South America, Central Amercia, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Not a single case! And in the entire continent of Africa, there is only one single case listed. Looking at the data you can believe that these areas have been miraculously spared for some reason. Or you can surmise that possibly most of the cases there are going unidentified and without efforts to contain them.

Good Listener
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Good Listener » Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:59 pm

Retired internist/nephrologist here. I would not dismiss the potential health risk, which is not really known now, nor worse the risk of quarantine even if you are healthy. I see no point in traveling abroad now. What is one proving by doing so?

quantAndHold
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by quantAndHold » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:10 pm

We have nonrefundable plane tickets and mostly refundable reservations for a 2 month long European trip this spring. We had a discussion last night with the friends we’re traveling with, and decided that if the situation gets severe enough that the airlines offer refunds, we’ll cancel and get everything refunded. Otherwise, we’re staying the course and going. If any of us gets sick over there or gets quarantined, we’ll deal with it.

We’re not leaving for six weeks, though, so we reserve the right to change our minds as the situation changes.

If we didn’t already have nonrefundable tickets, I think we would hold off, though.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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nisiprius
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by nisiprius » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:55 pm

caffeperfavore wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:42 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:31 pm
The chart starts at 45. It has added two zeros in two weeks, to 4,500. Add a zero every week and you to 4,500,000,000 in six weeks, or more than half the world. It is pessimistic but not crazy to imagine that it will be widespread before the end of the year. It might be overreacting to think that travel is dangerous today, but at that rate of spread, in a matter of months it won't be.
And in nine weeks...[does the hard math, double checks calculator, gasps]... 4.5 trillion people will have it! :P

Like all epidemics, it will level off. We don't know when, but as we get more information about it as well, the fatality rate is likely to go down as well.

(I could be wrong.)
I think you're right, and about the fatality rate too. But the point is that it is spreading very quickly, and according to the press epidemiologists are pessimistic about containment and planning for a pandemic. The thing that is concerning is that it is apparently difficult to detect.
There is zero precedent for ANY disease spreading like you describe. I don't think you will find any serious epidemiologist who believes half the world would be infected within the year.
OK, no time frame, but the 40% to 70% estimate is attributed to Marc Lipsitch. I don't know how to evaluate his credentials. In your opinion, is he a "serious epidemiologist" or not?
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TravelGeek
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:12 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:55 pm
OK, no time frame, but the 40% to 70% estimate is attributed to Marc Lipsitch. I don't know how to evaluate his credentials. In your opinion, is he a "serious epidemiologist" or not?
I think he may have used a “coming year” time frame.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ne/607000/
Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Bobby206 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:13 pm

Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
I would not change your plans. It will be fine. Catching the flu will continue to be way more likely and way more deadly in total.

tj218
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tj218 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:37 pm

People need to stop letting the raw numbers scare you. 80,000 infected. 3,000ish dead seems scary. The flu infects more and kills WAY more (albiet at a lower rate) but we don't stop life over it.

I found these numbers reassuring:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Some tidbits:
"Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%."
Anyone under the age of 50 including children regardless of medical conditions have a death rate below 0.5%

These stats come from the places with less than US quality medical care as well.

If were above the age of 60, had a medical condition and were travelling to "hotspot" I would probably considering cancelling if it were in the next few weeks, other than that ignore the noise.

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Theseus
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:58 pm

OP here. I found this to be interesting. Especially the animation part that shows how # of cases grew. I wonder if the pattern that was in China will repeat in other parts of the world like Italy.

https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

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Theseus
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:03 pm

tj218 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:37 pm
People need to stop letting the raw numbers scare you. 80,000 infected. 3,000ish dead seems scary. The flu infects more and kills WAY more (albiet at a lower rate) but we don't stop life over it.

I found these numbers reassuring:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Some tidbits:
"Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%."
Anyone under the age of 50 including children regardless of medical conditions have a death rate below 0.5%

These stats come from the places with less than US quality medical care as well.

If were above the age of 60, had a medical condition and were travelling to "hotspot" I would probably considering cancelling if it were in the next few weeks, other than that ignore the noise.
I don't think the numbers scare me per se. It is the unknowns that scare me more. I have had flu several times in my life. So I know I can survive flu but I don't know about COVID19.

Other than taking normal precautions I take in the flu season, I am not changing anything while being at home. I am not sure I should take a risk of death > 1% in my age range for optional travel.

beernutz
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by beernutz » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:18 pm

chestnut wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:11 pm
First time ever, we have 3 trips booked for this Spring - Madrid/Seville/Lisbon in Mid March, Puerto Rico in mid April and Swiss (6 cities) in mid May. All are non-refundable air & hotel as they are package deals.

We will keep a close eye on the situation and the CDC warnings. If warranted, we won't go on the trips and forgo the whole cost -- It is a lot of money, but we don't want to get sick or be quarantined in a foreign country. Hope it doesn't come to that!
I was waiting for someone to post something similar to our situation. We've committed to a 10 day Mediterranean cruise for 4 starting May 10th. $20k+ for everything.

We still plan to go but if CDC says don't go we won't and will rely on insurance to cover some of the cost and eat the rest.

SCV_Lawyer
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by SCV_Lawyer » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:21 pm

Patzer wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic.
COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities.
The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities.
That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly).

So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead.
Apples to oranges. You are comparing flu deaths to flu infections (the number of infections is estimated by the CDC since many flu infections are never reported), but you are comparing COVID-19 deaths with COVID-19 reported cases. From what I have read, many, many cases of COVID-19 are mild and never reported (80% seems to be a common figure), and even if not mild, there is incentive not to report. There could easily be 5x-10x the number of infections than reported cases, which would bring the mortality rate down to well below 1% based on your figures above.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by FireProof » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm

The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sawhorse » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:28 pm

FireProof wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm
The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.
I agree. There are a huge number of Americans who would be very hesitant about seeking medical care for symptoms because of the potential financial implications.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm

SCV_Lawyer wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:21 pm
Patzer wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:53 pm
tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm
Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
You are comparing an established disease to the beginning of a pandemic.
COVID-19 has killed 2,711 out of 80,421 people it infect. 3.37% fatalities.
The flu killed 16,000 out of 29,000,000 people it infected in the US so far this flue season. 0.055% fatalities.
That is 61 times more deaths per infection, and COVID-19 has a higher R0 than the flu(meaning it spreads more quickly).

So, once COVID-19 has infected the same number of people as the flu, we can expect a lot more of them to be dead.
Apples to oranges. You are comparing flu deaths to flu infections (the number of infections is estimated by the CDC since many flu infections are never reported), but you are comparing COVID-19 deaths with COVID-19 reported cases. From what I have read, many, many cases of COVID-19 are mild and never reported (80% seems to be a common figure), and even if not mild, there is incentive not to report. There could easily be 5x-10x the number of infections than reported cases, which would bring the mortality rate down to well below 1% based on your figures above.
It truly might end up being a really big deal... but at this point it's totally blown out of proportion except that people's RESPONSE to the virus (ie nothing comes out of China) affects the world. As to the virus itself ... people have said it has a 2% mortality rate. Really? How many people died from the virus. OK... now what's the denominator? Absolutely no one knows the answer. And considering the experts have been wrong about every other epidemic for the last ten years ... at some point someone educated in science would apply the scientific method. The scientists predicted catastrophe about every year or two from a new virus for the last 10-20 years. If their prediction proved false every one of those times ... at some point a scientific man would put aside their warnings until there is a reason to take them seriously.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm

FireProof wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm
The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.
Why? Medicaid in this country is probably pretty equivalent to NHS. I'm a physician who works with good and bad insurance including medicaid.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:32 pm

tj218 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:37 pm
People need to stop letting the raw numbers scare you. 80,000 infected. 3,000ish dead seems scary. The flu infects more and kills WAY more (albiet at a lower rate) but we don't stop life over it.

I found these numbers reassuring:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Some tidbits:
"Patients who reported no pre-existing ("comorbid") medical conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%."
Anyone under the age of 50 including children regardless of medical conditions have a death rate below 0.5%

These stats come from the places with less than US quality medical care as well.

If were above the age of 60, had a medical condition and were travelling to "hotspot" I would probably considering cancelling if it were in the next few weeks, other than that ignore the noise.
Nobody knows the denominator. So no one knows the death rate. It's nonsense to speculate at this point. If I were in my 60s and not in good health I'd take no chance. If I were in my 30s I wouldn't worry about it based on what we know so far, which is very little. I would assume it will be the same as the flu, so I think it would be reasonable to assume the above.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:36 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:30 pm
hoops777 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:14 pm
TomCat96 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:56 pm
Theseus wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am
So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.

No you're not overreacting. Risk of contracting the virus is not the same as risk of quarantine. It's not the same as being impacted by the virus.

# of coronavirus cases worldwide. 80,000
# of people under quarantine, lockdown, etc: 700,000,000

That's the difference.
Exactly. I just do not understand how anyone just ignores it and the possible quarantine situations.

I have this thinking. The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly

Assume I am in Beijing. I get stopped by police. I get flagged down. I tell them what I know.
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

We all laugh, and they let me walk around freely.

Assume I am on a cruise ship. I get quarantined. I try to leave the ship I get stopped. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

They see the light. Marvel at my insight and let me get off. We joke about life and love.

Assume I am in Italy, in a hotspot area, I get my movement restricted. I try to get past the checkpoints. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly.

The council of Italians convenes. They agree with my assessment. We joke, jest, and drink a couple of cold ones together. I take pics with their dog.

Assume I return to the US. They bring me to a military base, say I have to be there for at least two weeks. But I tell them:
The flu kills 350k to 650k a year. Coronavirus, only 2000. This is no worse than the flu. Clearly

I share a mentos with them. They rib me for unique way of looking at things. They hadn't considered that. I am allowed to leave.

I just wish the rest of the world understood sometimes.
I think the flu is 40-50 k give or take. With that said ... although you're jesting about those of us who aren't too worried about it (yet)... how is this different so far than the flu? Why should we take this coronavirus as an impending catastrophe when we've all had many coronavirus infections in the past and some of us have had the flu? I just don't understand the alarm for this when every year no one raises the same alarm about the common flu?

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sawhorse » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:37 pm

Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm
FireProof wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm
The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.
Why? Medicaid in this country is probably pretty equivalent to NHS. I'm a physician who works with good and bad insurance including medicaid.
There are a lot of people who are uninsured and also not covered by Medicaid. Or who have some insurance, but they would not be able to afford a long hospital stay even with insurance. Most people don't even have enough of an emergency fund to cover their deductible if they lose their income from the time in the hospital.

As long as people are scared about the financial implications, they will be scared to seek treatment for symptoms.

One advantage the United States has over the UK is that the United States' population density is a lot less, so in theory the spread of the disease should be easier to contain.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:41 pm

Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:10 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm
Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm

The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
I wish it was not true. Maybe you are a physician within a couple of hours drive of an ocean at a well funded hospital. If so, it would be good to know what is available in other parts of the country. I assumed that the entire US healthcare system was overburdened between our regional experience and the articles about the looming physician shortage. Maybe, we should consider retiring elsewhere if there are parts of the country with better access to healthcare. I do not want to imagine what would happen here if there was a widespread coronavirus outbreak. Seasonal flu has caused the hospital to operate on diversion before.

All described situations happened in US in a metro area or area with an academic center within the last 5 years. I had to resort to begging and near tears to get a neuro appt for Dad any sooner than 14 weeks after hospitalization for a serious stroke, including with the practice responsible for his inpatient care. I sat with my neighbor a couple of years ago for 16 hours in the ER waiting for a hospital room to open after transport for a diabetic coma incident. There were at least 4 patient on guerneys in the hallway when I arrived. (To be fair, that had cleared the backlog by the time left later in the day.) My immediate family member is a rheumatologist and there is a minimum 5 month wait in our area for a new patient visit. And we have it great compared to the rural areas. I have no familiarity with the current situation in the UK or Ireland. I send condolences if they are waiting for urgent care as I know how frustrating that can be.
I'm sorry to hear that. I'm in Southern California with probably ten hospitals at least within 10 -15 miles. All provide for indigent care for everyone who comes in the ER (it's the law). There's at minimum county hospitals under 20 miles away where their patients are largely all indigent. I've worked all over the country in training (large metropolitan areas which is generally where the best training is) and it's always the same there. Wherever I've been - midwest, east, south, west - there is ample indigent care. And if you have an HMO care is prompt. If you have a PPO it's near immediate.

I'm frankly shocked that an acute stroke was not treated and managed emergently and all appropriate measures including surgery if necessary taken before discharge home. I've never heard of that happening or anything like that at any of the centers where I've trained or worked.

I'm the first to say I don't know everything. But I'd be shocked if your experience were typical. I'm sorry to hear of it.

Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:42 pm

Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:10 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm
Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm

The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
I wish it was not true. Maybe you are a physician within a couple of hours drive of an ocean at a well funded hospital. If so, it would be good to know what is available in other parts of the country. I assumed that the entire US healthcare system was overburdened between our regional experience and the articles about the looming physician shortage. Maybe, we should consider retiring elsewhere if there are parts of the country with better access to healthcare. I do not want to imagine what would happen here if there was a widespread coronavirus outbreak. Seasonal flu has caused the hospital to operate on diversion before.

All described situations happened in US in a metro area or area with an academic center within the last 5 years. I had to resort to begging and near tears to get a neuro appt for Dad any sooner than 14 weeks after hospitalization for a serious stroke, including with the practice responsible for his inpatient care. I sat with my neighbor a couple of years ago for 16 hours in the ER waiting for a hospital room to open after transport for a diabetic coma incident. There were at least 4 patient on guerneys in the hallway when I arrived. (To be fair, that had cleared the backlog by the time left later in the day.) My immediate family member is a rheumatologist and there is a minimum 5 month wait in our area for a new patient visit. And we have it great compared to the rural areas. I have no familiarity with the current situation in the UK or Ireland. I send condolences if they are waiting for urgent care as I know how frustrating that can be.
Oh and my hospitals are just regular community hospitals - some wealthier and some poorer. One is largely indigent population. I've never heard of or seen what you describe. Again, I'm sorry to hear it.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by nolapepper » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:57 pm

You are not overreacting at all. The actual death number is much higher than the official number. This is a serious situation. Taking a flight right now is not a good idea

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tc101 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:45 pm

You are not over reacting. Lots of people are canceling or putting off travel, and as you said, it will have a big impact on the travel industry.
. | The most important thing you should know about me is that I am not an expert.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by IMO » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:54 am

Katietsu wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm

The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
Your perception of your area in the US would be much different than the reality of where I live in the US. In my reality, if someone needs something like emergent care, say on the middle of a mountain, arrangements are made for helicopter medical evacuation with emergency medical facilities/staff ready to intervene once the helicopter is on the ground at the emergency room.

I'm not saying the US healthcare system is not without major problems, because it has major problems. However lets not be over dramatic about comparing one system to another when it comes to providing emergency care (and other non-emergent care for that matter).

I would say that your area is probably overcrowded and straining available resources.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:15 am

I think we can stop making uninformed comparisons about healthcare around the developed world. It isn't productive, and will get the thread locked.

I wouldn't have issues with using the local health system if I got sick in any country that's been discussed in this thread. I just don't want to get sick in the first place, and airplanes and crowds are maybe not a good idea with a novel coronavirus on the loose.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by AlphaLess » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:38 am

IMO, your biggest risk is if the US Admin or airlines decide to cancel certain air routes.

Eg., you go to UK, there is a large outbreak, and then routes get canceled.

It might take 6 weeks for the routes to open up.
Can you afford to be away that long?

Alternatively, can buy the tickets, and buy travel insurance, and then decide at the last minute.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Katietsu » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:39 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:15 am
I think we can stop making uninformed comparisons about healthcare around the developed world. It isn't productive, and will get the thread locked.

I wouldn't have issues with using the local health system if I got sick in any country that's been discussed in this thread. I just don't want to get sick in the first place, and airplanes and crowds are maybe not a good idea with a novel coronavirus on the loose.
I agree. I apologize for getting this thread side tracked.

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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by AlphaLess » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:40 am

FireProof wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm
The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.
IMO, if there is a pandemic in the USA, the biggest liability would be the 10-15% uninsured population.

Uninsured populations are notoriously expensive on the health care system, because they wait too long to seek medical care, so what could have prevented with a $100 treatment becomes a $5K treatment.

That cost is externalized, i.e., the remaining (insured) part of the population pays for that in terms of increased cost.

In this case, however, the externalization will not be limited to costs. It will also be in terms of resources. E.g, if emergency rooms and ICUs become overwhelmed with uninsured people, then insured people who get sick later, might not be able to seek care.

How this would work out in the UK: I have no idea.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by AlphaLess » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:43 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:15 am
I think we can stop making uninformed comparisons about healthcare around the developed world. It isn't productive, and will get the thread locked.

I wouldn't have issues with using the local health system if I got sick in any country that's been discussed in this thread. I just don't want to get sick in the first place, and airplanes and crowds are maybe not a good idea with a novel coronavirus on the loose.
There are other risks, in addition to getting sick:
- getting stuck for longer periods of time than planned, e.g., due to limitation on movement, or lack of flights,
- being unable to perform work duties (remotely),
- getting fired as a result,

I am sure I can come up with more.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

sawhorse
Posts: 3535
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2015 7:05 pm

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sawhorse » Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:43 am

AlphaLess wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:38 am
IMO, your biggest risk is if the US Admin or airlines decide to cancel certain air routes.

Eg., you go to UK, there is a large outbreak, and then routes get canceled.

It might take 6 weeks for the routes to open up.
Can you afford to be away that long?

Alternatively, can buy the tickets, and buy travel insurance, and then decide at the last minute.
This is a good point. In addition, if you have medical evacuation insurance, would any of the medical transport companies agree to transport you?

halfnine
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Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:48 pm

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by halfnine » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:54 am

I am happy to postpone travel at present. Right now there isn't any Coronavirus where I live. I am not interested in being THAT PERSON who changes that.

GeoffD
Posts: 182
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:31 pm

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by GeoffD » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:57 am

sawhorse wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:37 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm
FireProof wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:11 pm
The UK will be a much safer place to be in the face of coronavirus than the US. Bottom line, the British health system is much more effective than the US in patient outcomes at the median and especially at the bottom. For a pandemic, this latter is particularly important, since a significant untreated population, as there would be in the US, allows a disease to reproduce and spread to the entire population, even those who have access to quality care.
Why? Medicaid in this country is probably pretty equivalent to NHS. I'm a physician who works with good and bad insurance including medicaid.
There are a lot of people who are uninsured and also not covered by Medicaid. Or who have some insurance, but they would not be able to afford a long hospital stay even with insurance. Most people don't even have enough of an emergency fund to cover their deductible if they lose their income from the time in the hospital.

As long as people are scared about the financial implications, they will be scared to seek treatment for symptoms.

One advantage the United States has over the UK is that the United States' population density is a lot less, so in theory the spread of the disease should be easier to contain.
Texas has 82.3% insured. 5 million uninsured. All low income people. Plus the estimated (Pew Research) 1.6 million illegals who don’t get counted. Do you think many of those 6+ million would go to the ER and face thousands in medical bills if they contracted corona virus? The same for all those lower income people with lousy high deductible insurance.

And most Americans are clustered in high population density areas. Only 19% of the country lives in rural areas.

halfnine
Posts: 1154
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:48 pm

Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by halfnine » Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:18 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:15 am
I think we can stop making uninformed comparisons about healthcare around the developed world. It isn't productive, and will get the thread locked.

I wouldn't have issues with using the local health system if I got sick in any country that's been discussed in this thread. I just don't want to get sick in the first place, and airplanes and crowds are maybe not a good idea with a novel coronavirus on the loose.
I agree with this. I have lived in quite a few countries in the developed world including the USA and would have negligible issues with being treated in any of them on an emergency basis. Although, I would be a bit less keen on the bill that I would get in the USA.

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