Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

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Theseus
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Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus »

So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
corysold
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by corysold »

Only you know if you are overreacting and what your heart says.

However, if I was going to Italy in May, where there is actually currently an outbreak, I don't think I'd have an issue going to UK/Ireland, where there isn't one.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by sunny_socal »

Yes. It's a buying opportunity! :beer
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Seasonal »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
If there's a serious problem, airlines will most likely give waivers allowing refunds or reschedules. They are already doing this with flights to China and many believe they'll soon do the same for Italy (or at least Milan), although it's not certain until it happens.

The tourism industry is hurting due to reduced travel to Asia and reduced travel by Chinese tourists.

By May or June this may have all blown over or the US may be hit just as bad or worse. Hard to say.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by lthenderson »

I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus »

lthenderson wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:03 am I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
I am also worried about exactly the same thing. We are relatively young in our early 50s and very healthy. So we are not part of the at risk population. But getting quarantined would be a nightmare for sure.
Puretaxableindexer
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Puretaxableindexer »

Coronavirus probably has led to cheaper rates, but Cornavirus is still real and spreading. I wouldn't, but I'm not thinking of travel now anyway. Good luck.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tadamsmar »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
I think making non refundable commitments may be a problem.

The CDC has a travel advisory page;

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... index.html

But we can't be sure what the travel advisories will be months in the future.

Some advisories (for Italy for instance) are stricter if you are older or have a chronic medical condition. So that is a consideration.
Last edited by tadamsmar on Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Sandtrap »

lthenderson wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:03 am I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
+1
Well said.

Better safe than regretful.
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alfaspider
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider »

I don't think the U.K./Ireland is necessarily any more likely to be a location where the virus spreads than where you currently live.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Kennedy »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 am I don't think the U.K./Ireland is necessarily any more likely to be a location where the virus spreads than where you currently live.
Perhaps, but if I had an infection that has a death rate of some undetermined rate between 2%-20%, I would rather be treated in the United States than in a country where there may be a greater concern for shortages of ventilators and the like. I'm not saying there would never be ventilator/medication shortages in the U.S. if the virus is rampant, but countries with an NHS already have a model for rationing treatment.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Watty »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So we decided to hold off and see how it develops.
That is where we are at too.

We usually take one big(for us) trip year that we normally take in spring or early fall and we decided to not take a big trip this spring and wait to see how the fall looks.

We are planning a road trip in a few weeks where we might be about two days drive from home.

One advantage we have is that we are retired so we do not need to schedule our vacation time so that if something comes up later in the year we can take a trip on short notice.

In developed countries I don't think that the actual risk is any greater in at home, it is just trying to deal with possible quarentines and travel restrictions would be a lot more difficult especially in a country that speaks a different language.

It probably is a great time to travel though because the crowds will be a lot less.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider »

Kennedy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:30 am
alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 am I don't think the U.K./Ireland is necessarily any more likely to be a location where the virus spreads than where you currently live.
Perhaps, but if I had an infection that has a death rate of some undetermined rate between 2%-20%, I would rather be treated in the United States than in a country where there may be a greater concern for shortages of ventilators and the like. I'm not saying there would never be ventilator/medication shortages in the U.S. if the virus is rampant, but countries with an NHS already have a model for rationing treatment.
1) Death rate is almost certainly nowhere near 20%, and probably a lot less than 2%. There's no way to be certain, because there's a massive disincentive to go to the hospital or get tested in a mild case given the quarantines. In fact, by some measures the ordinary seasonal flu is more deadly than COVID-19 because (likely like corona virus) people who don't have severe cases never get tested. People seem to be making wild assumptions that the Chinese are understating the death toll, but the death rate is quite low in confirmed cases outside of China - lower than reported cases vs deaths within China.

2) The U.K. has almost the exact same number of hospital beds per capita as the U.S. Ireland actually has slightly more. The NHS may delay or deny elective procedures, but there is no more rationing for emergency care than would occur in the U.S. in a mass emergency.

3) It's really unlikely that a seasonal respiratory illness will be worse in June than in February. If expectations were totally defied and things do look worse in June, one could just buy trip insurance and cancel then.

4) Even if you lived in Wuhan China, you'd be about as likely to die from the regular seasonal flu as Corona virus.

5) In any event, I'm going to Europe later this week. Corona virus is the least of my worries.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by furwut »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
One thing to consider, it’s easy to pick up something (not necessarily COVID-19) while traveling anyway. If authorities implement health checks before traveling you could end up stuck over there or worse quarantined.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by GeoffD »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:12 am
lthenderson wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:03 am I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
I am also worried about exactly the same thing. We are relatively young in our early 50s and very healthy. So we are not part of the at risk population. But getting quarantined would be a nightmare for sure.
Corona virus kills young, healthy people, too. If you’re unlucky with your genetics, your immune system can destroy your lungs. That’s what is getting the health care workers in China. This isn’t a flu virus where it largely wipes out nursing homes but healthy adults survive it. There isn’t enough data yet to know fatality rates for healthy adults but it’s not zero.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tc101 »

We are relatively young in our early 50s and very healthy. So we are not part of the at risk population.
I don't think that is the right way to look at, for 3 reasons:

1 - Maybe you won't die, but get very very sick and lay in bed in misery for a week or more. That is still a bad thing.

2 - Maybe you won't die, but you will give it to someone else you care about who will die.

4 - Maybe you will die. Some young healthy people die from it.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by rich126 »

Airports, themselves are just tough with germs. At any time you may have someone coming from any country spreading germs to someone else who then sneezes or whatever and spreads it to someone else. Right now the risk may be higher. While it doesn't hurt to avoid certain cities that doesn't mean the planes you fly or airports or hotels won't have someone in them that may have transited those areas and could be a carrier of some virus.

Obviously getting sick or worse would be bad, it also wouldn't be much fun to get stuck in some quarantine, or other travel limitation.

As someone else mentioned there are bargains to be had but they aren't risk free.

Not sure what I would do if I had any plans. Usually I don't overly panic but dealing with quarantines and getting sick isn't my idea of a good vacation.

Good luck.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by forgeblast »

I was looking at travel insurance too, since we are booking pretty far in advance. The only insurance available is the cancel for any reason and its pricey. If you live in NY its not available.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by coalcracker »

I just postponed a March trip because of coronavirus. But we were traveling closer to the “hot zone“ (Singapore and Thailand), and taking our two young children along.

We were not terribly concerned about the actual viral infection, particularly being young and healthy. There are many worse diseases in the world, including influenza. More concerning was some type of forced quarantine either in those countries or once we get back home.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by chestnut »

First time ever, we have 3 trips booked for this Spring - Madrid/Seville/Lisbon in Mid March, Puerto Rico in mid April and Swiss (6 cities) in mid May. All are non-refundable air & hotel as they are package deals.

We will keep a close eye on the situation and the CDC warnings. If warranted, we won't go on the trips and forgo the whole cost -- It is a lot of money, but we don't want to get sick or be quarantined in a foreign country. Hope it doesn't come to that!
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Katietsu »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:12 am
lthenderson wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:03 am I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
I am also worried about exactly the same thing. We are relatively young in our early 50s and very healthy. So we are not part of the at risk population. But getting quarantined would be a nightmare for sure.
I am about your age. Guess what? We are not considered relatively young anymore even though we may think of ourselves that way. Just talking to my sister this morning about the disconnect between how we think of ourselves and the fact that it will not be long before we qualify for senior citizen housing where our grandparents lived back in the day. (Age 55 in my hometown). Though, I agree that I would rather face the coronavirus at 53 than 83!

My niece is close to the hot zone in Italy. Some semester abroad programs already shutting down for at least a month and advising students to return to the states.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by eye.surgeon »

As an MD all I will say is consider relative risk. You have a much higher risk of dying from any number of things than coronavirus. It does have a great publicity agent though. My favorite caption of this whole coronavirus thing is a picture of a chinese man lowering his mask to take a puff of a cigarette, something that kills more people every year than coronavirus could ever dream of.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by rjbraun »

coalcracker wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:05 pm I just postponed a March trip because of coronavirus. But we were traveling closer to the “hot zone“ (Singapore and Thailand), and taking our two young children along.

We were not terribly concerned about the actual viral infection, particularly being young and healthy. There are many worse diseases in the world, including influenza. More concerning was some type of forced quarantine either in those countries or once we get back home.
I'm not quite sure what constitutes "hot zone" these days; it seems to be a moving target. Earlier today, a Spanish hotel with over 1,000 guests has apparently been placed on lockdown.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... uarantined

As to OP, personally we are holding off on booking any overseas travel for now. For me, I probably would be disinclined for reasons unrelated to coronavirus (feel too busy, etc.), but I think my partner's disinclination is probably directly tied to the virus -- not just getting sick but also the potential inconvenience, quarantine risk, etc. associated with traveling under the current conditions.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus »

Katietsu wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:11 pm
Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:12 am
lthenderson wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:03 am I'm one who isn't worried about the Corona Virus at all and if I had tickets purchased already, I would continue to go. But if I didn't already have tickets and really had no reason to be in the area at that particular time, I would probably hold off purchasing. Not because I'm scared about getting the Corona virus but because I would be worried about getting quarantined in a nightmare situation like the Diamond Princess or a hotel room or having to spend 14 days on a military base upon my return to the U.S., etc.
I am also worried about exactly the same thing. We are relatively young in our early 50s and very healthy. So we are not part of the at risk population. But getting quarantined would be a nightmare for sure.
I am about your age. Guess what? We are not considered relatively young anymore even though we may think of ourselves that way. Just talking to my sister this morning about the disconnect between how we think of ourselves and the fact that it will not be long before we qualify for senior citizen housing where our grandparents lived back in the day. (Age 55 in my hometown). Though, I agree that I would rather face the coronavirus at 53 than 83!

My niece is close to the hot zone in Italy. Some semester abroad programs already shutting down for at least a month and advising students to return to the states.
You are right :D . It is funny how we think we are still young. Perhaps that's a wishful thinking. However I am in much better shape now than I was when I was 35. So may be that's playing with my psyche.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Irisheyes »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:43 am
Kennedy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:30 am
alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 am I don't think the U.K./Ireland is necessarily any more likely to be a location where the virus spreads than where you currently live.
Perhaps, but if I had an infection that has a death rate of some undetermined rate between 2%-20%, I would rather be treated in the United States than in a country where there may be a greater concern for shortages of ventilators and the like. I'm not saying there would never be ventilator/medication shortages in the U.S. if the virus is rampant, but countries with an NHS already have a model for rationing treatment.
1) Death rate is almost certainly nowhere near 20%, and probably a lot less than 2%. There's no way to be certain, because there's a massive disincentive to go to the hospital or get tested in a mild case given the quarantines. In fact, by some measures the ordinary seasonal flu is more deadly than COVID-19 because (likely like corona virus) people who don't have severe cases never get tested. People seem to be making wild assumptions that the Chinese are understating the death toll, but the death rate is quite low in confirmed cases outside of China - lower than reported cases vs deaths within China.

2) The U.K. has almost the exact same number of hospital beds per capita as the U.S. Ireland actually has slightly more. The NHS may delay or deny elective procedures, but there is no more rationing for emergency care than would occur in the U.S. in a mass emergency.

3) It's really unlikely that a seasonal respiratory illness will be worse in June than in February. If expectations were totally defied and things do look worse in June, one could just buy trip insurance and cancel then.

4) Even if you lived in Wuhan China, you'd be about as likely to die from the regular seasonal flu as Corona virus.

5) In any event, I'm going to Europe later this week. Corona virus is the least of my worries.
The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.

On the other hand, I am travelling to Costa Rica from SF this weekend. I would rather avoid all airports right now, but it's a long planned family wedding and I can't really cancel.
Last edited by Irisheyes on Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by nisiprius »

It's a world of uncertainty and will be so for a couple of years. Obviously travel is one of a number of activities that increases your risk. Obviously, avoiding travel... and schools... and political rallies... and hospital emergency rooms reduces but hardly eliminates your risk.

If the first chart Google found for me is correct, the number of cases has increased from 45 to 4,500 in 11 days...

Image

so, let's say it is increasing tenfold per week.

Let's just do a completely naïve extrapolation, because there's no particular reason to do anything else, recognizing that it could be pessimistic.

The chart starts at 45. It has added two zeros in two weeks, to 4,500. Add a zero every week and you to 4,500,000,000 in six weeks, or more than half the world. It is pessimistic but not crazy to imagine that it will be widespread before the end of the year. It might be overreacting to think that travel is dangerous today, but at that rate of spread, in a matter of months it won't be.

But on the other hand if you reduce your risk by a factor of 100--doing everything "right," staying home as much as possible, and being punctilious about everything... if the disease is increasing tenfold per week, then you can try your best and all you've done is to delay your change of getting infected by weeks.

An epidemiologist says "I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable," and "Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic."

I can't bridge the gap between officials who have said that "we’re very close to a vaccine," and statements in the article that "Hatchett guesses it would be 12 to 18 months before an initial product could be deemed safe and effective," and the head of the NIH's infectious disease department, Anthony Fauci, saying that developing a vaccine is proving “very difficult and very frustrating.”
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Theseus »

eye.surgeon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:18 pm As an MD all I will say is consider relative risk. You have a much higher risk of dying from any number of things than coronavirus. It does have a great publicity agent though. My favorite caption of this whole coronavirus thing is a picture of a chinese man lowering his mask to take a puff of a cigarette, something that kills more people every year than coronavirus could ever dream of.
My main concern is not about dying from this virus. Main concern is likelihood of contracting it in the plane ride, London tubes, and touristy places we will obviously go to. Being a tourist I will be in places where there are other tourists and I would think that will increase that likelihood.

Once someone gets sick, being quarantined and/or treated by a foreign doctor (fully competent I am sure) is probably not what I would want to look for. And being sick on the vacation will be miserable. I had that happen to me once. On the way to Thailand I got fever and it lasted entire trip. But like I said, may be I am overreacting.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by caffeperfavore »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:31 pm The chart starts at 45. It has added two zeros in two weeks, to 4,500. Add a zero every week and you to 4,500,000,000 in six weeks, or more than half the world. It is pessimistic but not crazy to imagine that it will be widespread before the end of the year. It might be overreacting to think that travel is dangerous today, but at that rate of spread, in a matter of months it won't be.
And in nine weeks...[does the hard math, double checks calculator, gasps]... 4.5 trillion people will have it! :P

Like all epidemics, it will level off. We don't know when, but as we get more information about it as well, the fatality rate is likely to go down as well.

(I could be wrong.)
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Galaxy8 »

Any thoughts on changing tickets from Italy to elsewhere with waived change fees?

I've got tickets booked to Rome in 13 days. I am not worried about the virus itself, but as many others state, I have no interest in being under quarantine.

Any suggestions on convincing American Airlines to rebook my travel to an alternate destination without paying the $200 change fee per ticket?
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by fru-gal »

Not sure how accurate this is, but the death rate by age and as discussed before, women do better than men. The big uptick starts around age 50, but it really gets bad starting at about 70.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by decapod10 »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:36 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:18 pm As an MD all I will say is consider relative risk. You have a much higher risk of dying from any number of things than coronavirus. It does have a great publicity agent though. My favorite caption of this whole coronavirus thing is a picture of a chinese man lowering his mask to take a puff of a cigarette, something that kills more people every year than coronavirus could ever dream of.
My main concern is not about dying from this virus. Main concern is likelihood of contracting it in the plane ride, London tubes, and touristy places we will obviously go to. Being a tourist I will be in places where there are other tourists and I would think that will increase that likelihood.

Once someone gets sick, being quarantined and/or treated by a foreign doctor (fully competent I am sure) is probably not what I would want to look for. And being sick on the vacation will be miserable. I had that happen to me once. On the way to Thailand I got fever and it lasted entire trip. But like I said, may be I am overreacting.
I'd be much more worried about being quarantined from Italy rather than the UK. Italy is 1 of 6 countries that has a COVID-19 travel warning by the CDC. At Level 2, it's higher than Hong Kong. My guess would be that a quarantine is coming for travelers from S Korea soon, then Italy might be next. Goldman Sachs isn't allowing their employees to go to part of Italy. If I'm willing to go to Italy, I'm probably fine going to UK, just my personal feeling anyway.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by GeoffD »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:36 pm
eye.surgeon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:18 pm As an MD all I will say is consider relative risk. You have a much higher risk of dying from any number of things than coronavirus. It does have a great publicity agent though. My favorite caption of this whole coronavirus thing is a picture of a chinese man lowering his mask to take a puff of a cigarette, something that kills more people every year than coronavirus could ever dream of.
My main concern is not about dying from this virus. Main concern is likelihood of contracting it in the plane ride, London tubes, and touristy places we will obviously go to. Being a tourist I will be in places where there are other tourists and I would think that will increase that likelihood.

Once someone gets sick, being quarantined and/or treated by a foreign doctor (fully competent I am sure) is probably not what I would want to look for. And being sick on the vacation will be miserable. I had that happen to me once. On the way to Thailand I got fever and it lasted entire trip. But like I said, may be I am overreacting.
Personally, I’m not all that concerned about the airplane since I would be hyper-aware about wiping down surfaces and not touching my hands to my face. It’s spending hours in the over-touristed areas. We have a London-Paris trip scheduled for early May. We may change what we do there to avoid the unwashed masses at the big tourist attractions. We have a late-September trip to Galicia. 10 nights in a rental house we’ve rented a few times previously and it’s off-season. It’s pretty low risk.
rich126
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by rich126 »

Galaxy8 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:43 pm Any thoughts on changing tickets from Italy to elsewhere with waived change fees?

I've got tickets booked to Rome in 13 days. I am not worried about the virus itself, but as many others state, I have no interest in being under quarantine.

Any suggestions on convincing American Airlines to rebook my travel to an alternate destination without paying the $200 change fee per ticket?
Best bet is to call and ask, sometimes they are more flexible than others. Also various locations are closing so that also affects tourists. For example
the Duomo cathedral in Milan is closed. Museums in some cities affected are closed.

Hard to say what the situation will be in a few weeks. If they won't waive the fees, wait it out and see if things change.
Katietsu
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Katietsu »

Irisheyes wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm
The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
Last edited by Katietsu on Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
hoops777
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by hoops777 »

alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:43 am
Kennedy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:30 am
alfaspider wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:24 am I don't think the U.K./Ireland is necessarily any more likely to be a location where the virus spreads than where you currently live.
Perhaps, but if I had an infection that has a death rate of some undetermined rate between 2%-20%, I would rather be treated in the United States than in a country where there may be a greater concern for shortages of ventilators and the like. I'm not saying there would never be ventilator/medication shortages in the U.S. if the virus is rampant, but countries with an NHS already have a model for rationing treatment.
1) Death rate is almost certainly nowhere near 20%, and probably a lot less than 2%. There's no way to be certain, because there's a massive disincentive to go to the hospital or get tested in a mild case given the quarantines. In fact, by some measures the ordinary seasonal flu is more deadly than COVID-19 because (likely like corona virus) people who don't have severe cases never get tested. People seem to be making wild assumptions that the Chinese are understating the death toll, but the death rate is quite low in confirmed cases outside of China - lower than reported cases vs deaths within China.

2) The U.K. has almost the exact same number of hospital beds per capita as the U.S. Ireland actually has slightly more. The NHS may delay or deny elective procedures, but there is no more rationing for emergency care than would occur in the U.S. in a mass emergency.

3) It's really unlikely that a seasonal respiratory illness will be worse in June than in February. If expectations were totally defied and things do look worse in June, one could just buy trip insurance and cancel then.

4) Even if you lived in Wuhan China, you'd be about as likely to die from the regular seasonal flu as Corona virus.

5) In any event, I'm going to Europe later this week. Corona virus is the least of my worries.
To each their own. I understand the part of not worrying about the actual virus being life threatening or that serious for a healthy person, but not knowing what is going to happen day by day in terms of cancelled flights,quarantines, etc. is way too much of a possible nightmare.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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SmileyFace
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by SmileyFace »

sunny_socal wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:45 am Yes. It's a buying opportunity! :beer
This is what I was thinking - watching prices to see if cruises, vacation packages, flights to Europe, etc. start to drop. I took a quick look yesterday and don't see any major bargains yet.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Irisheyes »

Katietsu wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm
The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
It isn't anecdotal. My family are all still in Ireland and I own a second house there. The twin issues of inadequate housing policy and underfunded/overburdened health care system fill the pages of the Irish newspapers on a daily basis.

For example from Friday's Irish Times: "More than 677,000 on hospital waiting lists last month, new figures show
Almost 103,000 people have been waiting more than 18 months for a slot" (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4174195

The population of Ireland is around 5 million, so you can judge for yourself the scale of the issue.

Of course, there are some exceptions to the rule in that my parents have access to the BlackRock Clinic in Dublin which they pay a premium for and there is no waiting list there nor gurneys in the corridors.

That is the exception,though not the rule.

The fact that there are also places in the US where the health care system is overburdened doesn't vitiate my point.
Last edited by Irisheyes on Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
tibbitts
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tibbitts »

I would normally have bought a cruise (domestic and/or Canada) for this spring but haven't so far. I'm wondering partly about the impact of the virus in the medical sense but also wondering if prices will come down. They've been pretty stubbornly normal so far.

It would be terrible to be quarantined in a cruise cabin: no other person to talk to, likely no internet or phone service, not even a window. Maybe a few TV stations, nothing else. Ugh.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider »

nisiprius wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:31 pm

The chart starts at 45. It has added two zeros in two weeks, to 4,500. Add a zero every week and you to 4,500,000,000 in six weeks, or more than half the world. It is pessimistic but not crazy to imagine that it will be widespread before the end of the year. It might be overreacting to think that travel is dangerous today, but at that rate of spread, in a matter of months it won't be.

High temperatures have been increasing here at a rate of 3 degrees per week for the entire month of February. At the current rate, the ocean will boil before the year is out!

But in all seriousness, you are overreacting. There is zero precedent for ANY disease spreading like you describe. I don't think you will find any serious epidemiologist who believes half the world would be infected within the year. There is no reason to think this disease, like related diseases, will not follow normal seasonal patterns. We are just weeks away from spring in the northern hemisphere, which will likely significantly slow the spread (which already appears to be decreasing in Wuhan).
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by retire14 »

Yes we canceled our trip to Australiaand NZ. Although both countries are low risk right now, we are just not comfortable being in crowded airplanes for long flights. Probably a little overreaction, but if we are not comfortable, we are not enjoying it the why bother?
Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

Katietsu wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm
The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by midareff »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Well.... we too have a travel (cruise) scheduled for mid-May to mid-June through the Mediterranean, starting in Greece and ending in Spain. When I look at last years statistics from the regular Flu in the USA I get "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

I will be taking antibiotics (I know it's a virus), decongestants, various inhalers and a nebulizer + meds and masks. If this follows form (CDC says); "Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks." So, I'm guessing this shooting match will be over or near over come mid to third week of May.

Your take on this may be different.
Ornery Old Guy
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

Irisheyes wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:48 pm
Katietsu wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:40 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:30 pm
The Irish health system is under severe strain already, even without the Corona virus. Waiting list of many months for routine procedures and, in some hospitals, people lying on gurneys in corridors waiting for beds to open up. The ongoing health care crisis was a major factor propelling the results of the recent election there.

Bottom line: I would not want to contract the corona virus while in Ireland.
Is there accurate information about healthcare availability by location? I am in the US. I am suspect about anecdotal comparisons of US healthcare system to those in other developed countries. In the US, at the nearest hospital to me, we have people gurneys in hallways in the ER waiting for a regular ER bed. The regular ER bed might be taken by someone who is waiting for up to a day for admission to a hospital room to open up. There are waits of 4-6 months to see a neurologist, a rheumatologist, etc. A relative could barely eat while she waited 4 months for abdominal surgery in a different metro area. My relative in a country with national health insurance experienced none of these problems when he needed surgery and follow up care. What is perception and what is reality?
It isn't anecdotal. My family are all still in Ireland and I own a second house there. The twin issues of inadequate housing policy and underfunded/overburdened health care system fill the pages of the Irish newspapers on a daily basis.

For example from Friday's Irish Times: "More than 677,000 on hospital waiting lists last month, new figures show
Almost 103,000 people have been waiting more than 18 months for a slot" (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland ... -1.4174195

The population of Ireland is around 5 million, so you can judge for yourself the scale of the issue.

Of course, there are some exceptions to the rule in that my parents have access to the BlackRock Clinic in Dublin which they pay a premium for and there is no waiting list there nor gurneys in the corridors.

That is the exception,though not the rule.

The fact that there are also places in the US where the health care system is overburdened doesn't vitiate my point.
There are a million articles from British newspapers about how NHS has fallen off the tracks for years, patients wait long periods of time in the ER without care, patients starve because they're not given food, elective surgery is not possible for months because they're booked out ... all you have to do is not close your eyes. You don't even have to look for it there's so much information about how mediocre or frankly bad it is. You really have to close your eyes not to see it.

The worst case scenario in this country - if you are poor and have no insurance you go on medicaid where the worst care you get is the same as the NHS. There are county hospitals everywhere that see people with medicaid and no insurance. If you have even halfway decent insurance here you get better and faster care than any socialized medicine country.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

midareff wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:17 pm
Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Well.... we too have a travel (cruise) scheduled for mid-May to mid-June through the Mediterranean, starting in Greece and ending in Spain. When I look at last years statistics from the regular Flu in the USA I get "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

I will be taking antibiotics (I know it's a virus), decongestants, various inhalers and a nebulizer + meds and masks. If this follows form (CDC says); "Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks." So, I'm guessing this shooting match will be over or near over come mid to third week of May.

Your take on this may be different.
Professionally I don't have anything to do with flu but I'd leave the antibiotics home and look at Tamiflu.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by caffeperfavore »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:16 pm I'm a physician. Little of this rings true. Perhaps for someone with medicaid in this country who goes to a county hospital - someone could wait all day in the ER waiting for a bed to open. This is however routine in Britain. 4-6 months to see a medical specialist does not ring true, though there are plenty of studies of such delays in socialized medicine countries (Canada, Britain). 4 months for abdominal surgery similarly does not ring true in the USA but is seen routinely in Canada and Britain. There are so, so many of these articles about how the NHS has fallen apart - look in any British newspaper. What you're describing just doesn't sound like USA medicine. Here, medicaid patients typically get care and timing commensurate with NHS, and anyone with mediocre coverage is seen electively much much faster than NHS.
Do you have citations for this? I'm actually interested. But, I have to ask because my UK and Canadian friends always laugh about how the NHS is characterized in the US.
Patzer
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Patzer »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
You are not overreacting.
There is a decent chance your May trip won't happen as well.
Global peak for COVID-19 will probably be sometime between May and July.
You can always schedule it again if the world manages to contain it, which seems unlikely due to how poorly Iran has handled it.
tesuzuki2002
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Corona virus has kills about 2700 people worldwide...

The common flu has killed 16,000 people in the US alone just the season so far...

You should judge your risk level versus your travel fun...
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by midareff »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:24 pm
midareff wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:17 pm
Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Well.... we too have a travel (cruise) scheduled for mid-May to mid-June through the Mediterranean, starting in Greece and ending in Spain. When I look at last years statistics from the regular Flu in the USA I get "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

I will be taking antibiotics (I know it's a virus), decongestants, various inhalers and a nebulizer + meds and masks. If this follows form (CDC says); "Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks." So, I'm guessing this shooting match will be over or near over come mid to third week of May.

Your take on this may be different.
Professionally I don't have anything to do with flu but I'd leave the antibiotics home and look at Tamiflu.
Antibiotics won't work on viruses, they will work if the virus triggers a bacterial respiratory infection, bacterial sinus infection or bacterial pneumonia. FWIW, the Corona virus isn't the only thing that goes around airplanes and cruise ships. Take a multi-week cruise and you will be amazed how many folks are sick with running sinusus and coughing before the end of week 2, let alone week 3 or more. I've got a regularly scheduled checkup visit to my pulmonary specialist Thursday, he may have some helpful advise or words of wisdom.
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by alfaspider »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:24 pm
midareff wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:17 pm
Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Well.... we too have a travel (cruise) scheduled for mid-May to mid-June through the Mediterranean, starting in Greece and ending in Spain. When I look at last years statistics from the regular Flu in the USA I get "In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths."

I will be taking antibiotics (I know it's a virus), decongestants, various inhalers and a nebulizer + meds and masks. If this follows form (CDC says); "Flu season is the time of year when you are most likely to get sick from the flu. In general, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (usually January or February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks." So, I'm guessing this shooting match will be over or near over come mid to third week of May.

Your take on this may be different.
Professionally I don't have anything to do with flu but I'd leave the antibiotics home and look at Tamiflu.
Taking antibiotics when not indicated is a great way to breed antibiotic resistant bacteria. I'm far more worried about that than coronavirus.
Tanelorn
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Re: Postponed travel due to Corona Virus. Am I am overreacting ?

Post by Tanelorn »

Theseus wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:31 am So I was about to buy tickets to UK/Ireland for a vacation. Had found great business class tickets for the dates in June. And then I saw the story about Italy now having issues and virus is spreading. So we decided to hold off and see how it develops. We are already going to Italy/Europe in May. So I think postponing June trip is probably psychological more than anything else.

Am I over reacting? Has anyone else changed their travel plans just because of Corona virus? But if this is how I react, I am sure others react similarly and perhaps the impact on tourism industry (which is discretionary spending) is going to be much severe.
Seems prudent. If nothing else, rates may get much cheaper due to reduced travel demand even if you subsequently judge the virus risk to be acceptable for the travels your planning.
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