lthenderson wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:34 pm
jayk238 wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:06 pm
Did you get the flu shot? Because you are more likely to die from it - heuristic bias,
I wouldnt worry about it. I wouldnt buy masks. And im a front line professional in healthcare.
1100+ people have died from the coronavirus this year. 100,000 people have died from cancer in the same time frame. Perhaps you should ask what you are doing to prevent yourself from getting cancer.
A "fun" but slow way to learn about geometric progression (a.k.a. exponential growth) is by watching your three-fund portfolio grow (on average). A less fun but faster way way is to watch the growth of coronavirus. If you're looking at the absolute number of people who have died, I'd suggest that you might have your eyes on the wrong ball. Here we are 6 days later and the number of people who have died is over 2,000.
As to opinions of healthcare professionals, I've spoken to a few, and everyone I spoke to was pretty concerned--not panicked but concerned.
wolf359 wrote: ↑
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am
corysold wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:45 pm
I guess I just don't see how this is different than a flu outbreak, which happens all of the time and no one makes special precautions.
My kids daycare and the local Catholic school were both closed for a few days this week because so many kids had the flu. I don't know what the percentage was, but I suppose it had to be in the 30's at least to close a school. I'm not even sure the news made the local paper.
So I'm preparing for the coronavirus like I prepare for a flu outbreak. Wash my hands and try not to get too much of my kids snot on me.
Ok, so that's not totally true. I'm also taking a walk into the woods by my house. Hopefully if I get the coronavirus, I can at least have Lyme disease with it to make it more palatable.
According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.
The world didn't end last year.
If the death rate remains at 2.3% and 45 million are infected--well you do the math.
Second, it's very, very rare for younger people do die of the flu. With rare exceptions it's older people in poor health that are killed by the flu, or (to a lessor extent) infants and toddlers. Unsurprisingly, these demographics are also at the highest risk from this virus, but it's also killing younger adults in good health, including doctors and nurses who are on the frontlines.
Third, what we are seeing in China is that a significant percentage of people who are infected and survive, do so only after suffering through severe illness with pneumonia in both lungs. If it becomes as widespread in the U.S. as in Wuhan, China, expect that there may not be enough hospital beds for everyone who needs them.
If--yes, this is the big IF-If it continues to spread, it has real potential to be a lot more serious than any flu pandemic we've had since the 1957 "Asian flu" pandemic, or even the 1918 flu pandemic.
The good news is that even if it becomes as widespread in the U.S. as the flu it won't be the end of the world. And even if you get it, you (statistically) probably won't die. The bad news is that if it does become widespread, you probably will know a few people who do die.
But I agree there is no need to panic, not only because panic is useless and counterproductive, but also because there a number of different ways this can go. The data from China might be wrong. We may succeed in containing it to China -that is looking less and less likely--but it is still possible. Also, even if containment efforts fail and it becomes widespread in the U.S., it may be a less virulent strain that spreads here. Or maybe the containment efforts will slow the spread long enough for a vaccine to be developed.
And trying predict what the outcome is with any certainty is like trying engage in market timing. It's better to be prepared for the full range out outcomes. Just my opinion.
One thing I hope we can agree on that is actionable: This is probably a bad time to go on cruise in the SE Asia region. Look at what happened on the Westerdam.
Also, I think it's prudent for everyone to have hurricane/earthquake/tornado/misc. disaster supplies (few areas are immune to any type of catastrophic disaster), and if you do, you should already have most of what you would want...