Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
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ResearchMed
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by ResearchMed » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:04 pm

Jablean wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:52 pm
Trapper wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:37 am
I tripped the trigger on upgrading my IPhone 6 to a newer model. Been thinking of upgrading for six months for various reasons and think the Conoravirus may impact Apple’s ability to fulfill orders.
I did the same thing with a couple of computers last week. We have a couple of generators but I have a hard time convincing DH to keep much gas on hand for them. He'll buy gas for the lawn mowers though. We also have several RVs/trailers parked in the backyard so need to make sure propane is stocked up for them and the BBQ. Again, DH not a prepper and is likely to steal a tank from one of the trailers to use for his BBQ. Water is probably our weak point because although we are on a well that means you have to have electricity. I do think peeps need to decide a bit more on what to do when no water in the toilet.

Upstream someone asked why no confirmed cases in Africa. According to Dr. Campbell's videos (also listed upstream) it's because noone in Africa has the DNA test for it. Currently the virus is confirmed by virus dna, they are hoping to develop a test that will look at antibodies instead.
Fill the bathtub with water.
It might be very useful for quick washing up, and a couple of pots of water into the toilet tank (or right into the bowl, depending) can help with that situation, too. (Also, there is no *need* to flush after every use...)

We always keep a bunch of gallon containers of spring water on hand, and replace them as used; we use that water for anything we might eat or drink, so there's real turnover.
But we stock up extra at "times like these", and ditto with canned tuna and other staples, mostly things that need no cooking at all. Nothing goes to waste, sooner or later.

RM
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TomCat96
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by TomCat96 » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:39 pm

Audioarc wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:25 am
You are more likely to die from influenza.

I believe this is the wrong metric to use. Question.

Does this person
1. Have the Coronavirus?
2. Die from the Coronavirus?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/cor ... index.html

On Saturday afternoon, the US Embassy in Tokyo sent a notice to Americans on board the Diamond Princess laying out plans to evacuate nearly 400 Americans back home.

Once there, another 14 days of mandatory quarantine would begin. Anyone who chose not to get on the flight would have to wait another 14 days in Japan to ensure they were symptom-free before returning to the US.

Mansicalco said another two weeks away from home would cost her upwards of $50,000. "It is financially devastating as well as emotionally devastating. I was in tears when I got the news and ... I did not have the words to explain how I felt. And now I just feel angry," she said.



I personally don't believe this person has the Coronavirus or has died from the Coronavirus. Yet I would like to avoid being in this person's shoes.

It seems to me that the metric of dying from Coronavirus should only be the metric I use if it is my intention to only avoid dying from the Coronavirus.

I have additional goals in mind such as avoiding my life being impacted from the virus at large.

That makes the question broader. For one, I can be impacted not only by the virus directly, but also by state action stemming from the virus as this poor woman has been.

lazydavid
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by lazydavid » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:50 pm

A lot of discussion here about stocking up on water. Are you all expecting your water service to be shut off or otherwise contaminated as a direct or indirect result of cronavirus spreading? It just doesn't make sense to me. I get it from a general survivalist/prepper perspective (for example, earthquake preparedness), but don't see why it's relevant to this discussion.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by PhysicsTeacher » Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:35 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:50 pm
A lot of discussion here about stocking up on water. Are you all expecting your water service to be shut off or otherwise contaminated as a direct or indirect result of cronavirus spreading? It just doesn't make sense to me. I get it from a general survivalist/prepper perspective (for example, earthquake preparedness), but don't see why it's relevant to this discussion.
While I think it is highly unlikely that municipal utilities in the U.S. will be impacted by COVID-19, potable water is both absolutely essential for survival and relatively cheap and easy to stockpile. If circumstances in a pandemic did become so dire that the faucets stopped running, that wouldn't be a time when I'd want to venture through town to collect river water to treat for drinking, either.

Many folks are likely assessing their overall disaster preparedness and realizing they ought to start somewhere. I'll second the suggestion of http://www.ready.gov.

I'll admit to throwing a 24 pack of half liter bottles into my cart at Aldi this afternoon to add to my existing supplies. $2.29 didn't seem excessive for the morale boost of feeling like I was doing something to manage the situation.

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Watty
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Watty » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:53 pm

lazydavid wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:50 pm
A lot of discussion here about stocking up on water. Are you all expecting your water service to be shut off or otherwise contaminated as a direct or indirect result of cronavirus spreading? It just doesn't make sense to me. I get it from a general survivalist/prepper perspective (for example, earthquake preparedness), but don't see why it's relevant to this discussion.
Most people have a 50 gallon water heater that can be used for emergency water in many situations.

quantAndHold
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by quantAndHold » Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 pm

I hate to ask...

I keep emergency supplies, but can someone please explain how a virus is going to cause my water and power to go out?
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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ResearchMed
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by ResearchMed » Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:01 pm

Watty wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:53 pm
lazydavid wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:50 pm
A lot of discussion here about stocking up on water. Are you all expecting your water service to be shut off or otherwise contaminated as a direct or indirect result of cronavirus spreading? It just doesn't make sense to me. I get it from a general survivalist/prepper perspective (for example, earthquake preparedness), but don't see why it's relevant to this discussion.
Most people have a 50 gallon water heater that can be used for emergency water in many situations.
... except those who installed an instant "on call" heater, which only fires up when there is hot water needed, and there is not a real "tank".
:(

RM
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by halfnine » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:41 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 pm
I hate to ask...

I keep emergency supplies, but can someone please explain how a virus is going to cause my water and power to go out?
I imagine if you were to go around the country at this very minute there are locales where people are without water today. Obviously, the odds are low that this will happen to you while a home quarantine would be in place. But, it would happen to someone.

mancich
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by mancich » Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:59 am

Nothing other than what has been posted. Take care of our health, flu shot, diligent hand-washing, etc.

Mr. Rumples
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Mr. Rumples » Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:07 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:00 pm
I hate to ask...

I keep emergency supplies, but can someone please explain how a virus is going to cause my water and power to go out?
There are major storms which knock out power and which require bringing in crews from other states. Imagine if the ranks of those employees are reduced due to illness or they can't work a full day. The same is true of the employees required to operate waste water treatment plants. The scenario is not likely, but possible. We were without power a few years ago for five days when a line of 26 telephone poles came down, the one in my back was snapped like a toothpick. There were so many down, the line of 26 and many more, that telephone poles had to be brought in from out of state; even the hospital was on emergency backup for several days. There was no gas, no place to get coffee, no traffic lights. Roads were blocked for days; it took Verizon and Comcast weeks to bring back service. Even some tree services stopped taking new customers. If they can't get employees, it would mean even more down time.

Unfortunately, folks don't take the needed precautions, such as washing hands and covering their mouths when they cough. Many will return back to work or try to fight though it due to financial constraints. But if the virus is transmitted when the mail carrier coughs on the mail before delivery, how many of us wash our hands after looking at the mail?

In the end, I won't do anything more than I already do which is a two week supply of food and water and a large stash of batteries, paper products and so forth which I buy in bulk...all of this comes from growing up and living in an area prone to hurricanes and post hurricane flooding. It was about a year ago, they predicted a big storm, there was a mad rush on "D" batteries, they were sold out everywhere.

But to be really prepared, buying a coffin and burial plot might be prudent. Both were in short supply in 1918. A few years ago, in PA, when widening a road, workers came across a mass grave, long forgotten, of 1918 flu victims.
Last edited by Mr. Rumples on Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:45 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by elvisimprsntr » Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:15 am

Caduceus wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:20 am

I find it funny that toilet paper is one of the things people (not just you) run out to buy when there's a panic. It's not really an essential, is it? How ever did we survive for centuries without toilet paper! :P
Proof during an apocalypse, TP will the most valuable commodity. I know it's high on my hurricane supplies list.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ar ... r-BB104as1

https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2020 ... -hong-kong

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by tenkuky » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:18 am

For all the people either suggesting N95 masks or having bought off the internet or in-store....
N95 personal respirators are supposed to be fitted and tested in order to be deemed effective for use in airborne transmission.
This involves checking fit, using specific odor challenge testing (you smell nothing if it works).
If you've undergone this with your mask, great. Otherwise, it may more be for psychological comfort than trusting actual effectiveness of the device.
Above is my opinion/personal experience with N95s.
Consult with an Occupational Health professional for medical advice.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by lthenderson » Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:45 am

A more economical way to insure water quality after a disaster is to just buy a water filter. I have one that I use on backpacking trips that can be back flushed and cleaned and stores in a bag just a little larger than a coffee cup. It never needs to be rotated to insure freshness and you aren't keeping your basement full of jugs or bathtub full of water just in case.

Kagord
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Kagord » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:50 am

I think it's foolish to say that the flu is worse, there are too many unknowns to make a statement one way or the other on this one. What is known, is what is happening in China, and this is an unprecedented response. If it was less harmful than the flu, I don't think they would risk the economic impact from their draconian approach.

That said, not prepping yet, watching Singapore (their response has been the best, IMHO) and Japan (they have the most at stake with the Olympics), if neither can eradicate, I'll start prepping 2-3 weeks of supplies that I won't go to waste either way.

If this takes a strong foothold in the US, I would anticipate a few "please stay at home if you are non-essential to infrastructure" requests, to slow the spread while remedies continue to be worked on. At least, on the positive side, COVID-19 doesn't appear to be as deadly as their predecessors, SARS and MERS, albeit more infectious from the early data. Time will tell.

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JoeRetire
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:53 am

7eight9 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:17 pm
Frantic customers throwing any non-perishable items they can get their hands on into shopping trolleys. Face masks, disinfectants and floor cleaners vanishing from pharmacy shelves, with no replacement stock available.

The same thing is now happening in Indonesia. The only question is why?
As of Friday, neither the Indonesian government nor the World Health Organisation had confirmed a single case of the coronavirus or Covid-19, the pneumonia-like disease it causes, in the country despite it being encircled by infected neighbours.


Maybe consumers in the United States are different from consumers in Indonesia. Somehow I doubt it.
I was in the local market yesterday. I saw no signs of frantic customers, throwing of non-perishables, nor any of the items you mention vanishing.

Maybe I missed it.
The best time to panic is first before everyone else.
Have fun with that.
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CarpeDiem22
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by CarpeDiem22 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:05 am

3 people are infected in my country of 1.33 billion people. Corona virus is very low on my worry list. Thank God for The Himalayas and the unfriendly border with China.

Nowizard
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Nowizard » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:11 am

Nothing other than being somewhat more strategic with grocery shopping during off-hours, not eating out as much during peak hours, paying attention to minor congestion when it occurs.

Tim

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by tenkuky » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:02 am

CarpeDiem22 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:05 am
3 people are infected in my country of 1.33 billion people. Corona virus is very low on my worry list. Thank God for The Himalayas and the unfriendly border with China.
:shock:
Last I checked planes can fly at 35,000 ft, well above Everest (and the rest of the ranges) 23-29,000.
3 people infected that are known.
You not worrying is in the minority. See here...
https://qz.com/india/1803860/coronaviru ... th-travel/

Kagord
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Kagord » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:30 am

Perhaps, the population on this board takes a long term view on risk based on historical trending. Based on past history, I would expect in this population of readers here to have some apathy towards SARS-CoV-2 and it's effects of having any sort of risk of disruption, be it financial, medical, or toilet paper availability, in their lives.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by fru-gal » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:33 am

Corsair wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:56 am
I think many underestimate how much is made in China.
Other generic drugs whose key ingredients are manufactured in China include medicines for blood pressure medicine, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, epilepsy and depression, Gibson says.

"We can't make penicillin anymore," said Gibson. "The last penicillin plant in the United States closed in 2004."
...
"China is the world's largest exporter of vitamins and antibiotic raw materials," he said, according to an NBC News translation. "Once the export is reduced, the medical systems of some developed countries will not work."

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... y-n1052376
We've prepared best we can for an extended "stay" at home including freeze dried canned staples, stocked the garage freezer, masks, disinfectants, isobutane-propane canisters in case power goes out. It's all good to have on hand anyhow for any future emergencies.
One thing I hope this does is cause more stuff to be manufactured in the US. This is not a political post, but is it not crazy to be dependent on other countries, including not friendly countries, for vital stuff like medications?

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by wolf359 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am

corysold wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:45 pm
I guess I just don't see how this is different than a flu outbreak, which happens all of the time and no one makes special precautions.

My kids daycare and the local Catholic school were both closed for a few days this week because so many kids had the flu. I don't know what the percentage was, but I suppose it had to be in the 30's at least to close a school. I'm not even sure the news made the local paper.

So I'm preparing for the coronavirus like I prepare for a flu outbreak. Wash my hands and try not to get too much of my kids snot on me.

Ok, so that's not totally true. I'm also taking a walk into the woods by my house. Hopefully if I get the coronavirus, I can at least have Lyme disease with it to make it more palatable.
+1

According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:40 am

fru-gal wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:33 am
One thing I hope this does is cause more stuff to be manufactured in the US. This is not a political post, but is it not crazy to be dependent on other countries, including not friendly countries, for vital stuff like medications?
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:41 am

wolf359 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am
According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.
Let me check... by gum, you are right - it didn't end!

But surely the market crashed, due to all these deaths and the disruptions cause by the millions of infections?
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

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tadamsmar
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by tadamsmar » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:51 am

Here's CDC's recommendation to the general public concerning the 2019 Novel Coronavirus:
It’s currently flu and respiratory disease season and CDC recommends getting a flu vaccine, taking everyday preventive actions to help stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.
Also, avoid nonessential travel to China.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by ponyboy » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:28 pm

wolf359 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am
corysold wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:45 pm
I guess I just don't see how this is different than a flu outbreak, which happens all of the time and no one makes special precautions.

My kids daycare and the local Catholic school were both closed for a few days this week because so many kids had the flu. I don't know what the percentage was, but I suppose it had to be in the 30's at least to close a school. I'm not even sure the news made the local paper.

So I'm preparing for the coronavirus like I prepare for a flu outbreak. Wash my hands and try not to get too much of my kids snot on me.

Ok, so that's not totally true. I'm also taking a walk into the woods by my house. Hopefully if I get the coronavirus, I can at least have Lyme disease with it to make it more palatable.
+1

According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.
So what do we consider for the "coronavirus season?" Im not running to the hills but I also do not think this is something that should be downplayed. 40+ million people are quarantined in another country. And all of the information that is being received is through the Chinese sponsored media, which is controlled by the government. Just because those of us that live in the US are in this magical bubble at the moment doesnt mean it cannot be popped. I hope you're right though. That this is all silly nonsense and media fear mongering.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Watty » Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:50 pm

Kagord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:30 am
Perhaps, the population on this board takes a long term view on risk based on historical trending. Based on past history, I would expect in this population of readers here to have some apathy towards SARS-CoV-2 and it's effects of having any sort of risk of disruption, be it financial, medical, or toilet paper availability, in their lives.
Part of deciding what to do is looking at the possible cost and consequences.

If you are not on a tight budget making sure that your pantry is well stocked well stocked or even overstocked with food and supplies that you will eventually use no matter what has negligible cost so even if the chances of you needing it for the Coronavirus are remote there is little reason not to do that level of preparation. That level of preparation could also be justifiable for more likely(or at least better known) risks like earthquakes, hurricanes, blizzards, etc.

It is sort of like Pascals wager without the religious considerations.

More extensive preparation is more complex but you can do a lot for a couple of hundred dollars which would not be a significant amount for many people.

wolf359
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by wolf359 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:57 pm

ponyboy wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:28 pm
wolf359 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am
corysold wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:45 pm
I guess I just don't see how this is different than a flu outbreak, which happens all of the time and no one makes special precautions.

My kids daycare and the local Catholic school were both closed for a few days this week because so many kids had the flu. I don't know what the percentage was, but I suppose it had to be in the 30's at least to close a school. I'm not even sure the news made the local paper.

So I'm preparing for the coronavirus like I prepare for a flu outbreak. Wash my hands and try not to get too much of my kids snot on me.

Ok, so that's not totally true. I'm also taking a walk into the woods by my house. Hopefully if I get the coronavirus, I can at least have Lyme disease with it to make it more palatable.
+1

According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.
So what do we consider for the "coronavirus season?" Im not running to the hills but I also do not think this is something that should be downplayed. 40+ million people are quarantined in another country. And all of the information that is being received is through the Chinese sponsored media, which is controlled by the government. Just because those of us that live in the US are in this magical bubble at the moment doesnt mean it cannot be popped. I hope you're right though. That this is all silly nonsense and media fear mongering.
Actually, the reason I mentioned the flu, is that it was also the biggest pandemic in modern times. The 1918 Influenza Pandemic killed more people than World War I (which was going on at the same time.) If something felt like the end of the world, those two events occurring simultaneously, with the collapse of empires and the world order of the time, would have been it.

Here's a discussion from the CDC about the differences between then and now: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... l#learning This discussion includes how the medical profession will likely respond to a similar pandemic, and what tools they'd likely employ.

I think it's prudent to have food and water reserves in case there are any local economic disruptions. In a natural disaster, it's prudent to be able to move from your location. But in a disease situation, it's probably better to be able to shelter in place.

And make sure you use a reputable source of information. I have friends who are already telling me about <conspiracy theory> or <false reports> based on social media news feeds, viral news sites, and people who are not medical doctors dispensing medical advice.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:02 pm

I removed a post containing medical advice (health claims of a certain diet). As as reminder, see: Medical Issues
Questions on medical issues are beyond the scope of the forum. If you are looking for medical information online, I suggest you start with the Medical Library Association's User's Guide to Finding and Evaluating Health Information on the Web which, in addition to providing guidance on evaluating health information, includes a list of their top recommended sites.
I also removed an off-topic post and reply making an analogy of statistical data to Star Trek (contained a political reference - off topic).

Please stay focused on the consumer aspects.
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by mrsbetsy » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:14 am

Now sitting on >150K in orders for our small business. Factory in China still has not opened. Not sure how long consumers will continue waiting for their product. This is not looking good and there are *many* of us in this situation.

We are preparing by hunkering down and not spending anything beyond our 4 walls, despite being FI.

Hold tight...give your suppliers some grace. This is out of our control.

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Finridge » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:50 am

lthenderson wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:34 pm
jayk238 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:06 pm
Did you get the flu shot? Because you are more likely to die from it - heuristic bias,

I wouldnt worry about it. I wouldnt buy masks. And im a front line professional in healthcare.
+1

1100+ people have died from the coronavirus this year. 100,000 people have died from cancer in the same time frame. Perhaps you should ask what you are doing to prevent yourself from getting cancer.
A "fun" but slow way to learn about geometric progression (a.k.a. exponential growth) is by watching your three-fund portfolio grow (on average). A less fun but faster way way is to watch the growth of coronavirus. If you're looking at the absolute number of people who have died, I'd suggest that you might have your eyes on the wrong ball. Here we are 6 days later and the number of people who have died is over 2,000.

As to opinions of healthcare professionals, I've spoken to a few, and everyone I spoke to was pretty concerned--not panicked but concerned.
wolf359 wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:38 am
corysold wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:45 pm
I guess I just don't see how this is different than a flu outbreak, which happens all of the time and no one makes special precautions.

My kids daycare and the local Catholic school were both closed for a few days this week because so many kids had the flu. I don't know what the percentage was, but I suppose it had to be in the 30's at least to close a school. I'm not even sure the news made the local paper.

So I'm preparing for the coronavirus like I prepare for a flu outbreak. Wash my hands and try not to get too much of my kids snot on me.

Ok, so that's not totally true. I'm also taking a walk into the woods by my house. Hopefully if I get the coronavirus, I can at least have Lyme disease with it to make it more palatable.
+1

According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.
If the death rate remains at 2.3% and 45 million are infected--well you do the math.

Second, it's very, very rare for younger people do die of the flu. With rare exceptions it's older people in poor health that are killed by the flu, or (to a lessor extent) infants and toddlers. Unsurprisingly, these demographics are also at the highest risk from this virus, but it's also killing younger adults in good health, including doctors and nurses who are on the frontlines.

Third, what we are seeing in China is that a significant percentage of people who are infected and survive, do so only after suffering through severe illness with pneumonia in both lungs. If it becomes as widespread in the U.S. as in Wuhan, China, expect that there may not be enough hospital beds for everyone who needs them.

If--yes, this is the big IF-If it continues to spread, it has real potential to be a lot more serious than any flu pandemic we've had since the 1957 "Asian flu" pandemic, or even the 1918 flu pandemic.

The good news is that even if it becomes as widespread in the U.S. as the flu it won't be the end of the world. And even if you get it, you (statistically) probably won't die. The bad news is that if it does become widespread, you probably will know a few people who do die.

But I agree there is no need to panic, not only because panic is useless and counterproductive, but also because there a number of different ways this can go. The data from China might be wrong. We may succeed in containing it to China -that is looking less and less likely--but it is still possible. Also, even if containment efforts fail and it becomes widespread in the U.S., it may be a less virulent strain that spreads here. Or maybe the containment efforts will slow the spread long enough for a vaccine to be developed.

And trying predict what the outcome is with any certainty is like trying engage in market timing. It's better to be prepared for the full range out outcomes. Just my opinion.

One thing I hope we can agree on that is actionable: This is probably a bad time to go on cruise in the SE Asia region. Look at what happened on the Westerdam.

Also, I think it's prudent for everyone to have hurricane/earthquake/tornado/misc. disaster supplies (few areas are immune to any type of catastrophic disaster), and if you do, you should already have most of what you would want...

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lthenderson
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by lthenderson » Wed Feb 19, 2020 8:45 am

Finridge wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:50 am
lthenderson wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:34 pm
jayk238 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:06 pm
Did you get the flu shot? Because you are more likely to die from it - heuristic bias,

I wouldnt worry about it. I wouldnt buy masks. And im a front line professional in healthcare.
+1

1100+ people have died from the coronavirus this year. 100,000 people have died from cancer in the same time frame. Perhaps you should ask what you are doing to prevent yourself from getting cancer.
A "fun" but slow way to learn about geometric progression (a.k.a. exponential growth) is by watching your three-fund portfolio grow (on average). A less fun but faster way way is to watch the growth of coronavirus. If you're looking at the absolute number of people who have died, I'd suggest that you might have your eyes on the wrong ball. Here we are 6 days later and the number of people who have died is over 2,000.
A better ball would be Ebola which at a nearly 70% fatality rate and killed 11,000 people last year. Initial research has shown that 80% of coronavirus cases to healthy people only exhibit mild symptoms. Still not convinced that I should worry a second about the coronavirus.

Kagord
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Kagord » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:31 am

SARS-CoV-2, and the COVID-19 disease from it is not the flu and it is not Ebola, there's really no point in comparing to dissimilar diseases, and there's really no point in comparing outcomes to prior coronavirus outbreaks, as the characteristics aren't proven to be the same.

All one can do is process the information available, and conclude if preparedness is of potential benefit. On the scale of "doing nothing" to "run for the hills, off the grid, buy gold, isolation with years of self sufficiency", my choice is being able to handle a one to two 2 week periods of staying put, should it come to that. That's 4 weeks of food I will cycle through anyways. I have also slid the slider to a higher percentage into bonds, based on an anticipated supply chain disruption that may show up in the next 1-12 months and my age. Timing the market perhaps, but I have prepared and accepted the risk to lose out if the market continues it's upward trend or interest rates rise, or the myriad of other potential outcomes that could happen.

halfnine
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by halfnine » Wed Feb 19, 2020 12:50 pm

lthenderson wrote:
Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:45 am
A more economical way to insure water quality after a disaster is to just buy a water filter. I have one that I use on backpacking trips that can be back flushed and cleaned and stores in a bag just a little larger than a coffee cup. It never needs to be rotated to insure freshness and you aren't keeping your basement full of jugs or bathtub full of water just in case.
Water quantity is my concern. I have no concerns about water quality as there are a handful of ways I could treat water.

gtd98765
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by gtd98765 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:49 pm

SevenBridgesRoad wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:35 pm

I can't remember the name of the cognitive bias that is at play here, throwing off our risk assessment because coronavirus is all over the news and other higher risks are not reported every hour. Maybe someone can remind me.
Availability bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic

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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by SevenBridgesRoad » Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:52 pm

gtd98765 wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:49 pm
SevenBridgesRoad wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:35 pm

I can't remember the name of the cognitive bias that is at play here, throwing off our risk assessment because coronavirus is all over the news and other higher risks are not reported every hour. Maybe someone can remind me.
Availability bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
Yes! Thank you! :sharebeer
Retired 2018 age 61/Variable Percentage Withdrawal method/One fund: VTINX all accounts/No mortgage,debt/Good enough | "Not using an alarm is one of the great glories of my life." Robert Greene

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TomCat96
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by TomCat96 » Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:07 pm

gtd98765 wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:49 pm
SevenBridgesRoad wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:35 pm

I can't remember the name of the cognitive bias that is at play here, throwing off our risk assessment because coronavirus is all over the news and other higher risks are not reported every hour. Maybe someone can remind me.
Availability bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_heuristic
Frankly I see these two as more relevant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance


1. Normalcy bias. People are biased because life goes on like usual, and its hard for them to perceive outside those boundaries.

2. Cognitive Dissonance. The idea that this is no worse than the flu, when there is very clear and obvious evidence that China's economic activity is paralyzed, over 1700 chinese doctors are infected, over 150 million people are in quarantine, and over 700 million people are on lockdown. Here the cognitive dissonance comes from embracing the flu comparison, when nation-state actors are simply not treating it like the flu. In fact they're losing quite a bit of money because of their "overreaction" to this "flu"

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JoeRetire
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:34 pm

TomCat96 wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:07 pm
Frankly I see these two as more relevant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance


1. Normalcy bias. People are biased because life goes on like usual, and its hard for them to perceive outside those boundaries.

2. Cognitive Dissonance. The idea that this is no worse than the flu, when there is very clear and obvious evidence that China's economic activity is paralyzed, over 1700 chinese doctors are infected, over 150 million people are in quarantine, and over 700 million people are on lockdown. Here the cognitive dissonance comes from embracing the flu comparison, when nation-state actors are simply not treating it like the flu. In fact they're losing quite a bit of money because of their "overreaction" to this "flu"
(shrug)

Do you live in China? Are you in quarantine or just lockdown?
Are you currently using all those hepa filters you bought? Or are you saving them for bartering chips once the apocalypse reaches your neighborhood?
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

epilnk
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by epilnk » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:06 pm

[quote=wolf359 post_id=5028912 time=1582043891 user_id=76205
According to the CDC, around 12,000 people die from the flu every year. Last flu season, 61,000 people died, and over 45 million were infected.

The world didn't end last year.
[/quote]

Reporting cause of death is not quite as straightforward as it appears. If you get the flu, then pneumonia, then die, did you die of flu or pneumonia? Either could be correct, and which one is the official cause of death most likely depends on reporting standards and local authorities. On Friday only 14 died in China - but they’ve changed their standards again, which was also the situation last week when there appeared to be a sudden surge.

So you need to compare apples to apples. Last flu season 61,000 died of flu worldwide. So far around 1700 (last I checked) had died of covid19 in China this year. That doesn’t sound too bad. Until you realize that 2 years ago 144 people died of flu in China. Of course the Chinese are still working on their reporting standards, but 1700 is a much bigger number in a much shorter time period.

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mickeyvee
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by mickeyvee » Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:10 pm

Just remember...Corona Virus goes best with Lyme disease! :oops:
Life - Can't live with it...can't live without it!

Kagord
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Kagord » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:04 pm

Bump, as far as those "It's just the Flu" folks and not prepping, ace in the hole here: https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

tenkuky
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by tenkuky » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:14 pm

mickeyvee wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:10 pm
Just remember...Corona Virus goes best with Lyme disease! :oops:
Hopefully not also with Iridocorneal endothelial syndrome (ICE) :oops: :oops:

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mickeyvee
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by mickeyvee » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:16 pm

Hey tenkuky...Perfect! +1
Life - Can't live with it...can't live without it!

rustymutt
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by rustymutt » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:21 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:41 pm
In every disaster a common theme is a lot of people being unprepared. Clearly people choose to be unprepared to the unexpected. We try to be prepared and don't cry for those that decided not to.
I see no weakness in having empathy for others. For me, in this life, I want a heart of the people. If that makes me a weak man, than that's that.
I do cry others. And pray for many.
Even educators need education. And some can be hard headed to the point of needing time out.

likegarden
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by likegarden » Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:32 pm

As with any public problem, we will read the news. This Coronavirus sickness is a very new one. We thought flying to Europe in August, and the CDC said that this virus could spread in airplanes, as in respect of the 300 people in 2 airplanes coming from Japan with 14 sick ones with them, so we hold off on that Europe trip. Then we thought to travel to the beach for 10 days, but there we would meet a lot of other people and we could not see who is sick. So that trip would be off. But as every year we will be getting flu shots in fall. Without a virus problem would be sitting in my garden with a beer!

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Random Musings
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Random Musings » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:09 pm

I will remain optimistic but viligent. Fact that some Italian towns locked down, Iran perhaps as well keeps my eyebrows still raised. South Korea showing a quick ramp up last few days, with concentrated infection areas. People spend money on home insurance, car insurance and so on, but won't spend a few hundred dollars on few critical inventory supplies. We will see about supply chain issues, Baltic Dry Index is something to look at. Not sure, but heard that 30 percent of our imports come from China, and some widgets needed for process A could cascade to process B and so on. I think utilities are not a problem, but I can pretty much guarantee that China makes their utility people work.

So I bought a put and purchased a little more inventory for the house. However, the put doesn't expire worthless as most will be consumed in the end.

I still pray this will subside as the weather gets warmer or the virus mutates to a less dangerous one.

RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ

AlphaLess
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by AlphaLess » Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:49 pm

mrsbetsy wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:14 am
Now sitting on >150K in orders for our small business. Factory in China still has not opened. Not sure how long consumers will continue waiting for their product. This is not looking good and there are *many* of us in this situation.

We are preparing by hunkering down and not spending anything beyond our 4 walls, despite being FI.

Hold tight...give your suppliers some grace. This is out of our control.
It's gonna get a lot worse.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.

softwaregeek
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by softwaregeek » Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:01 pm

Bought a couple of hand sanitizer bottles and lysol and bought some extra canned goods and paper products. I’ll eat a lot of tuna if this blows over, I expect. And hand sanitizer is just good to have on hand regardless.

Tdubs
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Tdubs » Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:09 pm

At some point, the virus is going to hop a flight from Italy to Dulles. So, I'm going shopping this weekend, not because I think the odds of contracting the virus are high, but the odds of a nationwide freakout are very high.

Kagord
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by Kagord » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:42 am

Tdubs wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:09 pm
At some point, the virus is going to hop a flight from Italy to Dulles. So, I'm going shopping this weekend, not because I think the odds of contracting the virus are high, but the odds of a nationwide freakout are very high.
Based on the CDC update on Friday (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020 ... id-19.html), they believe it's highly likely to be in the US at some point and to expect school closings, yada, yada, yada...etc. Apparently there are only test kits currently in three states due to the quality issues (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/only-th ... group.html). It's a little concerning to me that other countries seem to be more aggressive. Being in a first world country with a stellar/booming economy, one would think there would be more prioritization, given what's happening in China and potential impacts to their GDP. The biggest concern I have, though, is not the CFR, but the high percentage (10%?) that may require hospitalization, and the impact (freak out, as you call it) that could have.

To keep on topic, as far as prepping, I'm still sticking to my one month of food stock to cover a few stay at home requests. And now mostly in bonds (breaking from BH philosophy :( ) to cover, in case this sparks some sort of recession/correction (been through 2000 and 2008, and a little wiser to economy chain reactions a small thing can cause), not really doing anything else prepping-wise. I don't believe this to be an SHTF event.
Last edited by Kagord on Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:48 am, edited 3 times in total.

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midareff
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Re: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Post by midareff » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:46 am

Just bought 50 surgical quality masks...... all the stock of a local place.

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