Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

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MoeMoney
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Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by MoeMoney » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:13 pm

(Inspired by the "911 Not a Money Pit" thread...)

Fellow automotive enthusiasts - What are you seeing hitting the bottom (or near)of the depreciation curves right now that you find cool/interesting/desirable:

Two I have my on of my list that are under $10K:
  • Early 2000's Lexus LX470
  • Mid-2000's Jaguar XJR
I missed out on the e30 BWMs 7+ years ago - Still have not gotten over that!

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:56 pm

Past the bottom, but not by much, Lotus Elise and Exige.

So do you want to hear how I sold my 51k mile 90 M3 in 1997 for $15k?
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Topic Author
MoeMoney
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by MoeMoney » Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:06 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:56 pm
So do you want to hear how I sold my 51k mile 90 M3 in 1997 for $15k?
Ouchies!!!

The Elise is a strange bird. Sits at $30K and has been like that for years.

What are we driving now? And what are you watching/shopping for?

bubbadog
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by bubbadog » Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:44 pm

1) 2006-2009 Aston Martin Vantage (6 speed manual)

2) NB and NC Miatas

3) C6 Corvettes

4) Honda S2000

5) Early 997 Porsche 911

6) 100 series Land Cruisers

You can only know the true bottom retrospectively.

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:09 am

MoeMoney wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:06 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:56 pm
So do you want to hear how I sold my 51k mile 90 M3 in 1997 for $15k?
Ouchies!!!

The Elise is a strange bird. Sits at $30K and has been like that for years.

What are we driving now? And what are you watching/shopping for?
So to add to the M3 story, I received a car plan at work but needed a 4 door car to qualify. $700 a month. Sold the M3 and a 91 CRX-Si and bought a 98 A4 2.8Q sport, manual.

Elise was only allowed import (had a whiny manufacturer exemption) model years 05-12. Half of all came in 05 because Lotus thought they'd sell far more $55k cars than there was demand for. Total of Elise and Exige was around 5-6k (LotusTalk has exact numbers). I used to kid that you couldn't stick a magnet to anything on the car. Aluminum bonded chassis, aluminum suspension pieces, aluminum Toyota 2ZZ engine/head, composite body. There is nothing that exists that's close to this car. It is very difficult to get into. Once in a 7 footer fits easily. It's even harder to get out of.

What do I drive now? Well, the Lotus became 1 semester of DS#1's college. I drive an 09 4 cyl auto Ford Fusion daily and a 4 door Wrangler for offroading, towing and when we need to bring big stuff anywhere in it, on the rear rack or on the trailer. Waiting for retirement to buy something else.

996 turbos are coming off the bottom of depreciation. They do NOT have the intermediate shaft, so no infamous IMS bearing problem. I'd consider buying one but it is very dated at this point.

I passed on 3 cars in the mid 70's that also would be worth tons today....but I had no money.
70 Superbird for $2500
63 1/2 Ford lightweight for $2500 (the guy had 2)
67 Corvette coupe 427 4 speed for $2500 (the guy wanted to buy a Corvette racecar)

Cars I might buy: GT-R, GT-3, Evora (the bargain of the bunch, but will never be rare like an Elige)
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gunn_show
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by gunn_show » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:00 am

bubbadog wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:44 pm
1) 2006-2009 Aston Martin Vantage (6 speed manual)

2) NB and NC Miatas

3) C6 Corvettes

4) Honda S2000

5) Early 997 Porsche 911

6) 100 series Land Cruisers

You can only know the true bottom retrospectively.
Funny, two vehicles I have been involved with recently are in this thread of only 5 comments. Like people, think alike.

Recently sold my GX470 with almost 190k miles for a still decent price.

Have been casually watching and waiting for the S2000 prices to keep dropping, they have been horrendously overvalued the last couple years, some guys trying to get $25-35k for 10 year old stock cars. Still bummed I sold my s2k in the recession, will try to grab one the next time a dip rolls around.
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Chan_va
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by Chan_va » Tue Nov 05, 2019 11:07 am

Maybe its just past its bottom on the depreciation curve but the E60 M5 is a classic. Enough people are scared off by the rod bearing issues to make them affordable. The styling has aged well, and the engine is the last of its kind.

Barefoot
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by Barefoot » Thu Nov 07, 2019 7:42 pm

IMHO the S2000 is past the bottom and rising again.

aerosurfer
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by aerosurfer » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:30 pm

Even further back in the BMW world...

Look at e24 6 series prices, especially M6-ers. They had always been a step behind the e28 M5, but now quickly rising though the 40k and up price range, with 70+ becoming more normal. I had a few 635csi. They are a fantastic 80s coupe. Iconic and fun to drive.

The e31 8 series has been an albatross that's starting to get it's due as well.

On the Italian front, the Ferrari 456 is still a bargain compared to the 550 of the same vintage and a georgius car at that.

The Gen 2 vipers are going nowhere but up specifically the GTS coupes. The Gen 3 can be had for good money still, tough to find that amount of factory horsepower for that cheap ~40k. Convertibles are fantastic looking. Too much plastic on the interior.

Some of my wish list vehicles.

crystalbank
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by crystalbank » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:18 pm

Audi RS4. I think we're at the bottom.
VW R32. Probably rising, not sure.

Not at the bottom, but definitely holding their value or rising - BMW 1M.

S2000s are already pricy.

deikel
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by deikel » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:50 am

Why are you concerned about the bottom of the depreciation curve ?

With those example cars in mind you clearly are not worried about cost of ownership (since their repair/maintenance cost is a multitude of other cars that could give you transportation)
Everything you read in this post is my personal opinion. If you disagree with this disclaimer, please un-read the text immediately and destroy any copy or remembrance of it.

mtwhmemn
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by mtwhmemn » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:05 pm

S2000s are rising and have been for at least the past 3 years when I bought an '04.

Look at bringatrailer.com for prices paid (add 5% to closing price) and shipping cost is a factor sometimes.

https://bringatrailer.com/honda/s2000/

Will they continue to rise? Well, that is anybody's guess but an educated guess is maybe, but they won't likely go down either.

mtwhmemn
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by mtwhmemn » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:20 pm

mtwhmemn wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:05 pm
S2000s are rising and have been for at least the past 3 years when I bought an '04.

Look at bringatrailer.com for prices paid (add 5% to closing price) and shipping cost is a factor sometimes.

https://bringatrailer.com/honda/s2000/

Will they continue to rise? Well, that is anybody's guess but an educated guess is maybe, but they won't likely go down either.

Oh and it almost never makes sense to buy a car and expect to make money on it, ha!

Trapper
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by Trapper » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:53 pm

For those with shallow pockets:
Toyota FJ Cruiser 4x4
2007-2014
Built in Japan
Bonus if it is manual transmission
Bonus if voodoo blue.
Shop carefully and buy a southern or southwest car. Coastal, northeast, and upper Midwest cars have terrible undercarriage rust.

z0r
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by z0r » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:24 pm

1st gen cts-v. 2nd gen is getting cheaper too

1st gen boxster can be a pretty incredible value, for what it is

phxjcc
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by phxjcc » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:58 pm

Mid 200x MBZ W221 AMG S65.
New: $200k
Now: $ 40k

That's a low miles (< 50 k) cream puff.
Many were second home cars.

If you are a car guy, you should consider it.


650HP/700 FT-LBS V12

ASTON s deprecated more, but the interiors wear quickly.

Topic Author
MoeMoney
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by MoeMoney » Fri Nov 08, 2019 10:43 pm

Thanks, everyone! This has been a lot of fun. Here's what everyone has suggested (let me know of any mistakes):

1998 - 2007 Lexus LX470
2005 - 2009 Jaguar XJR
2005 - 2011 Lotus Elise
2006 - 2006 Lotus Exige
2006 - 2009 Aston Martin Vantage
1999 - 2005 Mazda Miata
2006 - 2015 Mazda Miata
2005 - 2013 Chevy Corvette
2000 - 2009 Honda S2000
2005 - 2008 Porsche 911
1998 - 2000 Toyota Land Cruiser
1996 - 2005 Porsche 911 Turbo
2004 - 2006 Porsche GT-3
2010 - 2014 Lotus Evora
2006 - 2010 BMW M5
1976 - 1989 BMW 6 series/M6
1990 - 1999 BMW 8 Series
1999 - 2005 Ferrari 456
1996 - 2002 Dodge Viper GTS
2004 - 2008 VW R32
2007 - 2008 Audi RS4
2011 - 2011 BMW 1M
2007 - 2014 Toyota FJ
2004 - 2007 Cadillac CTS-V
1996 - 2004 Porsche Boxster
2005 - 2013 Mercedes S65 AMG

Love that the list spanned everyone from sub-$10K to Ferrari/Aston/ GT3 range. I also learned some things (no IMS issue on the Turbo model AND how inexpensive FJ's have gotten). I use this site: https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/ to track model prices over time but it lacks the detail level to track at the trim level - LMK if anyone has other interesting tools they use. :sharebeer

strafe
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by strafe » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:07 pm

MoeMoney wrote:
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:13 pm
(Inspired by the "911 Not a Money Pit" thread...)

Fellow automotive enthusiasts - What are you seeing hitting the bottom (or near)of the depreciation curves right now that you find cool/interesting/desirable:

Two I have my on of my list that are under $10K:
  • Early 2000's Lexus LX470
  • Mid-2000's Jaguar XJR
I missed out on the e30 BWMs 7+ years ago - Still have not gotten over that!
They said that negative interest rates could never happen. And then they did.

I predict someday you will have to pay someone money to take a 2000s era Jag off your hands.

Topic Author
MoeMoney
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by MoeMoney » Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:44 pm

strafe wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:07 pm
I predict someday you will have to pay someone money to take a 2000s era Jag off your hands.

LOL fair but holy f they are gorgeous cars. I balanced it with a LX470, so I am not a total masochist.

bubbadog
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by bubbadog » Sat Nov 09, 2019 3:49 am

MoeMoney wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:44 pm
strafe wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 11:07 pm
I predict someday you will have to pay someone money to take a 2000s era Jag off your hands.

LOL fair but holy f they are gorgeous cars. I balanced it with a LX470, so I am not a total masochist.
A nice one two punch would be an Acura NSX and the Lexus LX470/100 series Land Cruiser. Both have reputations for incredible reliability and both are unlikely to suffer much, if any, depreciation.

z06ray
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Re: Car folks! Bottom of depreciation curve right now?

Post by z06ray » Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:27 am

1990-95 corvette zr-1
2001-2004 corvette z06

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