Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

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marathonwmn
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Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by marathonwmn »

Has anyone started purchasing single malts in advance of the tariffs starting later this month? As I see it this would result in a 25% savings over buying after tariff goes into effect. Cheers.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by whodidntante »

Does the retail price have anything to do with the price importers pay?
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Godot »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:39 pm Does the retail price have anything to do with the price importers pay?
How could it not?
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Brianmcg321
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Brianmcg321 »

I didn't realize.

Thanks for the tip. Ill be heading to the liquor store to stock up. :beer
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by neilpilot »

Now for the math lesson.....assuming the price increase follows precisely the 25% tariff, which is doubtful, that is actually a 20% saving. As in, you would save $25 on a $125 post-tariff bottle.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by ClaycordJCA »

Another bottle of Laphroiag and a bottle of Glenlivet are on my Costco list. Picked up a bottle of Monkey Shoulder (a blend of three single malts) today at Trader Joe’s. I really enjoy the Monkey Shoulder over ice.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Luckily I am a bourbon drinker, so no fear here.

Every year we have a large Christmas party, and invariably we end up with more wine and hard liquor at the end of the party. Fortunately the hard liquor doesn't spoil. Every now and then someone will bring a bottle of Scotch, and even though I have good Scotch available for the guests, I open it immediately, hoping someone will suck it down.

A person who enjoys a lot of Scotch might want to stock up, but unless they party a lot it wouldn't amount to much, especially given the frequent sales one can enjoy.

I have tried more than a couple of times to develop a taste for Scotch, but it just never enticed me.

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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Dick D »

I will not purchase in advance, and I will not purchase the products. I will just keep my money and not support stupid tariff wars.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jello_nailer »

I shall simply change from single malt to a blend, which I do regularly.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Brianmcg321 »

jello_nailer wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 6:05 pm I shall simply change from single malt to a blend, which I do regularly.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jello_nailer »

Desperate times require drastic measures.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by bottlecap »

I like Scotch but have been on a bourbon thing the past few years. Someday, I might go back to scotch, but for now, this sounds like a good excuse for Scotch drinkers to try some bourbon! Good bourbon's cheaper anyway...

BTW, I was unaware of this tariff until now, but it has a long history going back to 2004 and was approved by the WTO. It stems from supposedly unfair/illegal EU subsidies to Airbus.

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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by AerialWombat »

I am most certainly stocking up. Just received a beautiful gift of Balvenie Port Wood. Gonna stock up on ye olde Laphroaig and Glenlivet tomorrow.

Unlike jello nailer, I will keep it classy while the ship is burning. :mrgreen:
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by whodidntante »

Godot wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:44 pm
whodidntante wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:39 pm Does the retail price have anything to do with the price importers pay?
How could it not?
Well, if "everybody knows" that tariffs are going into effect, wouldn't people in the wholesale, distribution, and retail businesses try to take advantage of that now? I.e., wouldn't they attempt to maximize their profits regardless of their costs? I doubt optimal pricing is as simple as "what I paid plus 20%," for example.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by One Ping »

marathonwmn wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:38 pm Has anyone started purchasing single malts in advance of the tariffs starting later this month? As I see it this would result in a 25% savings over buying after tariff goes into effect. Cheers.
Any idea what day (roughly) should we expect to see the price hikes?
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by bottlecap »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:23 pm
Godot wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:44 pm
whodidntante wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:39 pm Does the retail price have anything to do with the price importers pay?
How could it not?
Well, if "everybody knows" that tariffs are going into effect, wouldn't people in the wholesale, distribution, and retail businesses try to take advantage of that now? I.e., wouldn't they attempt to maximize their profits regardless of their costs? I doubt optimal pricing is as simple as "what I paid plus 20%," for example.
You would think that they do, but it doesn't always work that way. It’s weird. I have a friend that is really into (relatively) expensive liquors and rarely do places mark things up for reasons other than the maker's price. When stores do, it PO's customers. The manufacturer/distiller doesn’t either.

They deal with this by limiting the amount you can buy on popular stuff or giving out tickets to determine the order in which people can enter the store and choose a bottle when they have lots of popular stuff in. More commonly the former.

It doesn’t make sense to me. When I was young, I remember the cabbage patch doll craze. I always wondered why the manufacturer or the retailer never raised the price (like 3x) rather than have fights in stores. The retailer was probably contractually bound not to, but the manufacturer could have. It never did.

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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by whodidntante »

bottlecap wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:37 pm
It doesn’t make sense to me. When I was young, I remember the cabbage patch doll craze. I always wondered why the manufacturer or the retailer never raised the price (like 3x) rather than have fights in stores. The retailer was probably contractually bound not to, but the manufacturer could have. It never did.
I would rather pay 3x pricing than have no access at all or have to be there at 2 pm on Tuesday to have a chance at getting a bottle. It's not that different to me than paying $18 for a glass of not so great whiskey at O'Hare. It was that or go without.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by cheezit »

Whatever you do, don't switch to American whiskey. Too many good bourbons and ryes have already gone up in price or become hard to find in recent years, I shudder to think what an influx of former scotch drinkers would do.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Jeff Albertson »

But German whiskey?

In fact, Germany is now home to almost twice as many whiskey distilleries as Scotland — around 250 producers, according to a website run by the German government, compared to “over 130” in the land of the wee dram, according to the Scotch Whisky Association.

While that might be surprising, bourbon buffs will remind you that American whiskey has a strong German influence. The Jim Beam family came from Germany, as did George Dickel, the great producer of Tennessee whiskey. The Stitzel-Weller distillery — maker of such well-known brands as Pappy Van Winkle, W.L. Weller and Old Weller — was founded by German immigrants, as was the old I.W. Harper distillery near Louisville, Ky. While whiskey produced in the United States might earn frequent comparisons to drinks from Scotland and Ireland, the American bourbon trail was largely paved by immigrants from Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/trav ... iskey.html
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by LadyGeek »

Scotch tariffs are currently a proposed regulation, as it is not published in the Federal Register.

Start here: Mission of the USTR | United States Trade Representative

Then: Section 301 Investigations | United States Trade Representative

Search the site for "scotch" comes up with: Section 301-Large Civil Aircraft
Note 1: This list of products subject to additional duties is provided for information purposes only. The definitive product coverage will be determined by amendments to the HTSUS that USTR will publish in an upcoming Federal Register notice. The effective date of the additional duties is October 18, 2019.
...
2208.30.30** Single-malt (or straight) Irish and Scotch Whiskies (described in 2208.30.30)
Nothing happens until the regulation is published in the Federal Register. There are no solicited comments, it's a done deal. As of today, it's a proposed regulation.

===============================
How the agency works:
- About Us | United States Trade Representative
- Interagency Role | United States Trade Representative
The Office is also responsible for eliciting advice from the public on policy decisions and negotiations through public hearings and Federal Register notices.
- History of the United States Trade Representative | United States Trade Representative

Basis in US law: [USC02] 19 USC 1862: Safeguarding national security
c) Adjustment of imports; determination by President; report to Congress; additional actions; publication in Federal Register

...the President shall publish in the Federal Register such determination and the reasons on which such determination is based.
Here's a Federal Register example: the published regulations (not Scotch)

Click on Trade Representative, Office of United States for the full agency dump (the USTR is an agency under the Executive branch).

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Scotch tariffs are a consumer item.

Thread locked for moderator review.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by LadyGeek »

Upon further review, the thread will remain locked.

We'll reopen the thread when the tariff is published in the Federal Register.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by oldcomputerguy »

The tariff under discussion has now been published in the Federal Register. The topic is now open for discussion.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by SevenBridgesRoad »

Will sip good bourbon while reading the Federal Register.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Shallowpockets »

I would buy some. It is a tremendous opportunity, maybe not, the tariffs could get worse, or not at all. Would be a bigly thing, it would be huge, the best thing that you ever do. That is a lot of money, but you are a BH and probably have a lot of money anyway from the huge run up in the markets these last three years. To buy some now would be great, we will see. It could all change, no one knows really, it will be a big win to have some of that scotch from that country, Scotland as they have been brewing it for over 1000 years. You could get some today, or maybe next week, maybe not at all. You’ll find out.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by TheOscarGuy »

marathonwmn wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:38 pm Has anyone started purchasing single malts in advance of the tariffs starting later this month? As I see it this would result in a 25% savings over buying after tariff goes into effect. Cheers.
Yes. At least that's what I told my wife.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by JBeck »

Buy American, i.e., switch to bourbon :beer
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by IowaFarmBoy »

Wouldn’t this be market timing? :sharebeer

Someone had to say it.....
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by lazydavid »

IowaFarmBoy wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:47 am Wouldn’t this be market timing? :sharebeer

Someone had to say it.....
True, but the premise behind not market timing is that "nobody knows nuthin'". Ie you can't reliably know the price on X future date.

If a regulation were passed that said that the price of a particular stock must rise by 25% on X date, we'd all be time that market. :)
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by birnhamwood »

Up to now he's just been aggravating, but now he's MEDDLIN' !!
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Murgatroyd »

Shallowpockets wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:34 am I would buy some. It is a tremendous opportunity, maybe not, the tariffs could get worse, or not at all. Would be a bigly thing, it would be huge, the best thing that you ever do. That is a lot of money, but you are a BH and probably have a lot of money anyway from the huge run up in the markets these last three years. To buy some now would be great, we will see. It could all change, no one knows really, it will be a big win to have some of that scotch from that country, Scotland as they have been brewing it for over 1000 years. You could get some today, or maybe next week, maybe not at all. You’ll find out.
:wink:
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by supersharpie »

Shallowpockets wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:34 am I would buy some. It is a tremendous opportunity, maybe not, the tariffs could get worse, or not at all. Would be a bigly thing, it would be huge, the best thing that you ever do. That is a lot of money, but you are a BH and probably have a lot of money anyway from the huge run up in the markets these last three years. To buy some now would be great, we will see. It could all change, no one knows really, it will be a big win to have some of that scotch from that country, Scotland as they have been brewing it for over 1000 years. You could get some today, or maybe next week, maybe not at all. You’ll find out.
I like the cut of your jib sir :D
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jebmke »

I don't drink spirits anymore but I found a high end tequila sips just as well as Scotch or Irish Whiskey.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by supersharpie »

I don’t like Scotch but did purchase a few bottles of champagne in preparation for the tariff.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by barnaclebob »

Dick D wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 5:53 pm I will not purchase in advance, and I will not purchase the products. I will just keep my money and not support stupid tariff wars.
By not purchasing the products you are doing what the tariffs are meant to get you to do.

If you do purchase then you are giving the govt additional revenue which might support the tarrifs.

Bottom line is you are collateral damage and your purchasing behavior has little effect.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by fru-gal »

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/busi ... Position=1

"The 25 percent U.S. tariffs to be imposed Friday are causing headaches for single malt distilleries, already struggling with Brexit."
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by LadyGeek »

Here's the published Federal Register document: 84 FR 55998 - Technical Adjustments to Section 301 Action: Enforcement of U.S. WTO Rights in Large Civil Aircraft Dispute

The discussion is getting derailed with opinions on supporting (or not) the tariff itself. Please stay focused on the consumer aspects.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by JoeRetire »

I'm not stocking up on any potentially tariffed items.
Too many potential items, too little time, don't care enough to bother. Seems like there's a new list every day.

Does anyone know what items the EU will tariff in retaliation as this new trade war front opens? It might help anticipate which US companies stock will dive next.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Nicolas »

JoeRetire wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:54 pm I'm not stocking up on any potentially tariffed items.
Too many potential items, too little time, don't care enough to bother. Seems like there's a new list every day.

Does anyone know what items the EU will tariff in retaliation as this new trade war front opens? It might help anticipate which US companies stock will dive next.
Unknown at this time what the retaliatory trade items will be, if any.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jrbdmb »

I chose to "stay the course" and not change my scotch spending habits at all. Though I finally did knuckle under in March and purchase my first bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue with some fantasy football winnings. Price was around $180, did not seem to be affected by tariffs.

(BTW - my verdict is the Blue is fine but overrated/overpriced, I would definitely buy three bottles of Macallan 12 or Lagavulin 16 over another bottle of the Blue. But sometimes you just get an itch that you have to scratch ...)
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by seawolf21 »

jrbdmb wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 4:03 pm I chose to "stay the course" and not change my scotch spending habits at all. Though I finally did knuckle under in March and purchase my first bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue with some fantasy football winnings. Price was around $180, did not seem to be affected by tariffs.

(BTW - my verdict is the Blue is fine but overrated/overpriced, I would definitely buy three bottles of Macallan 12 or Lagavulin 16 over another bottle of the Blue. But sometimes you just get an itch that you have to scratch ...)
+1

I'll also add Lagavulin 16, Glenlivet 14, Aberlour 12, Balvenie 12 Double Wood to that list as well.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by Nicolas »

I was expecting the tariff to hit the single malts (blends not affected) last October so I bought some. But last time I checked before the lockdown in Feb/Mar there still had been no price increase :confused
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by seawolf21 »

Maybe the pre-tariff inventory is still on the market.

https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/scot ... fs-431931/
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Nicolas wrote: Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:19 pm I was expecting the tariff to hit the single malts (blends not affected) last October so I bought some. But last time I checked before the lockdown in Feb/Mar there still had been no price increase :confused
My local retailer tells me that the tariff costs are being absorbed partly by the producers, partly by the importers, partly by the distributors, partly by the retailers, and partly by me. My share ends up being fairly small. I wonder how long this will last.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by lthenderson »

I missed this thread the first go around and didn't stock up anymore than I already had. I think I still have four or five bottles left which should last me until the shutdown is over and then some. Good thing I have more friends who gift me scotch than I can drink in a timely manner.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jabberwockOG »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:59 pm Luckily I am a bourbon drinker, so no fear here.

Every year we have a large Christmas party, and invariably we end up with more wine and hard liquor at the end of the party. Fortunately the hard liquor doesn't spoil. Every now and then someone will bring a bottle of Scotch, and even though I have good Scotch available for the guests, I open it immediately, hoping someone will suck it down.

A person who enjoys a lot of Scotch might want to stock up, but unless they party a lot it wouldn't amount to much, especially given the frequent sales one can enjoy.

I have tried more than a couple of times to develop a taste for Scotch, but it just never enticed me.

Broken Man 1999

Agree. Don't drink a lot of the hard stuff, but when I do it's bourbon instead of Scotch for me, usually in the form of Four Roses Single Barrel, Makers Mark, Redemption Rye, Blantons do the trick.
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by jabberwockOG »

Shallowpockets wrote: Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:34 am I would buy some. It is a tremendous opportunity, maybe not, the tariffs could get worse, or not at all. Would be a bigly thing, it would be huge, the best thing that you ever do. That is a lot of money, but you are a BH and probably have a lot of money anyway from the huge run up in the markets these last three years. To buy some now would be great, we will see. It could all change, no one knows really, it will be a big win to have some of that scotch from that country, Scotland as they have been brewing it for over 1000 years. You could get some today, or maybe next week, maybe not at all. You’ll find out.
We'll see what happens... :oops:
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by SimonJester »

Priced were tracked and posted on the Reddit Scotch sub over late last year into this year from various members in various locations. Prices definitely went up about $5-$10 or more per bottle. Also prices vary all over the place depending on your location...

My own spreadsheet tracked the increases some more then others, some have stayed the same. Its a combination of old stock & distributors holding down the price.

Here are some increases I noted
Dalwhinnie 15 went from $55 to $77, Laphroaig 10 $38 to $51, Glenfiddich 15 $50 to $54,
Talisker 10 $38 to $52, Highland Park 12 no change at $37, Caol Ila 12 $68 to $74, Arran 14 $37 to $76

The jump in prices occurred towards the end of January in my area for most brands.

Blends were not impacted by the additional tariffs...

Its anyone's guess what if anything brexit will do, most are hoping for a re negotiation of the tariffs
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by unclescrooge »

cheezit wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:09 pm Whatever you do, don't switch to American whiskey. Too many good bourbons and ryes have already gone up in price or become hard to find in recent years, I shudder to think what an influx of former scotch drinkers would do.
Which ones are you thinking of?
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by sunny_socal »

No biggie, bourbon is pretty good these days. The only time I drink scotch is when grilling steaks.
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queso
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Re: Preparing for 25% tariff on Scotch

Post by queso »

Lagavulin 16 has gone up quite markedly in my area, but my fear of running out during quarantine had me browsing around and I found it 33% cheaper online. After shipping I am still saving quite a bit over buying it locally so I will likely start buying online in bulk a couple times a year vs. random liquor store visits thoughout the year. As others have posted, I suspect locality variations play a big role in what people are seeing. When I placed the Lagavulin order I also picked up a couple of Ardbegs and a Laphroaig I can't find locally and the Ardbegs were markedly cheaper than my local store as well. However, one Ardbeg variant that I also keep on hand was significantly more than I can find it locally from the same online shop. My new strategy will be to put together an order and then check online pricing vs. local and split the order into an online component and a local component.
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