Which car to buy?

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Planner01
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Which car to buy?

Post by Planner01 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am

Which car would make more sense to buy:

A. A Toyota Camry for $25k and probably only keep it for 4-5 years because it would be more for practical financial reasons than desire.

B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.

I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.

I consider the Camry because of its reliability and value. I enjoy saving money so that’s my primary purpose for it. The only thing I spend money on is travel, around $10k a year. But I still manage to save almost half of my income and the mortgage is getting paid down aggressively to where it should be paid off before I am 50.

Do I splurge and get what I really want or enjoy the savings of a cheaper car?

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SquawkIdent
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by SquawkIdent » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:53 am

Have you considered just keeping your current car? A Lexus with less than 100K miles is just getting broken in IMHO.

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Planner01
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Planner01 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:58 am

SquawkIdent wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:53 am
Have you considered just keeping your current car? A Lexus with less than 100K miles is just getting broken in IMHO.
Of course! I love my car and other than it’s age it still looks and drives great. I’ve never had any issues with it. I was just thinking of what kind of car I should buy after this one, whenever that is. At some point I will have to make a new purchase.

On a side note: I know buying used cars is ideal but I prefer buying them new. As a female it gives me peace of mind.

wilked
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by wilked » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am

Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years

Chicago60
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Chicago60 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:42 am

What will you be using the vehicle for? Do you need an SUV? Do you need the 5 seats and extra storage? Do you need 4 wheel drive? I think you should consider these issues as much as the financial questions. I suspect both vehicles will last you many years.

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Cyclesafe
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Cyclesafe » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:08 am

Yesterday, DW and I once again had the annual "Should we replace the RX Lexus yet?" conversation. It's been 100% reliable, still looks great inside and out, and doesn't look dated to us. Most importantly, DW, who is the primary driver, doesn't see a reason to buy another vehicle. It has 82k miles and will be 20 years old next year. Yes, twenty.

Nevertheless, I have picked out the RX's replacement - a Porsche Macan S that options out, with her preferences, at $72k. If we also keep it 20 years, that will bring us to age 85 when we'll likely be phasing out personal driving.

So the question for her is, does she spend the next 20 years driving what I want her to have (she is also slightly positive as the Lexus gets squirrelly at highway speeds) or do we continue to drive the RX Lexus (which we can park anywhere) into the ground.

For the OP, I'd say stick to the Lexus you already have. Dream about alternatives and when the timing is right (look for dealer discounts from year end inventory) re-consider making your move. Always remember, the thrill of owning a better car soon wears off. It's ultimately better for the purchase to remain inchoate as long as possible. Personally, I dream of the new Porsche 992 911 - but naturally I dream of other things that I choose to not actually have also.

FoolStreet
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by FoolStreet » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 am

Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
Which car would make more sense to buy:

A. A Toyota Camry for $25k and probably only keep it for 4-5 years because it would be more for practical financial reasons than desire.

B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.

I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.

I consider the Camry because of its reliability and value. I enjoy saving money so that’s my primary purpose for it. The only thing I spend money on is travel, around $10k a year. But I still manage to save almost half of my income and the mortgage is getting paid down aggressively to where it should be paid off before I am 50.

Do I splurge and get what I really want or enjoy the savings of a cheaper car?
Buy a hybrid or an electric car. We spend too much on foreign oil as it is.

GmanJeff
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by GmanJeff » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:35 am

Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:58 am

Of course! I love my car and other than it’s age it still looks and drives great. I’ve never had any issues with it. I was just thinking of what kind of car I should buy after this one, whenever that is. At some point I will have to make a new purchase.
It's pointless to speculate about a replacement vehicle for some indefinite and distant future time. Models and even brands come and go and even the same models can change significantly from model year to model year. New models will be available in the future which you cannot even conceive of right now. Hybrids and all-electric vehicles are gaining market share slowly but surely, and may come to dominate the market in future years, giving you options which are presently unavailable to you. Unpredictable political and economic forces may significantly change the costs of vehicles you might be thinking of now, further making it challenging to anticipate what you may consider affordable at some future time. In short, under the circumstances, it might be best to simply take good care of the car you have now and which you seem to find entirely satisfactory, rather than expend energy on wondering what may be appealing in the future.

Detailing your current car's exterior and interior at least annually, keeping it garaged, and maintaining it to factory recommendations will probably let you keep your current car indefinitely since you don't use it much.

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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by jebmke » Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:42 am

wilked wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am
Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years
I have a 2008 RAV4 that is just getting close to 100K; it is in great shape and I am hoping to keep it for at least another 5 years, maybe longer. I have a friend who has two Toyotas each with over 300K on them.
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fourwheelcycle
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by fourwheelcycle » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:56 am

Only you know whether you can easily afford the nicer car. If you can truly easily afford it, and you know you would enjoy it, I think you should go ahead and buy the nicer car. You can buy it now or whenever you feel like pulling the trigger.

My wife and I drove Toyotas, Dodges, and Pontiacs our whole lives, until retirement age. Our current cars are more expensive, but we enjoy them very much. We pay cash and keep our cars about ten years. We realize our current cars are an indulgence, but we can easily afford them and they are really our only indulgence other than vacations.

BH is not a great place to ask for advice about buying nicer cars, since the mantra here is LBYM. Only you know whether your other LBYM habits make it reasonable to buy the nicer car.

researcher
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by researcher » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm

wilked wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am
Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years
+1

You love your current car, you've never had any issues with it, and it has less than 100K miles.

At the rate of change in the auto industry, there is no sense speculating about some future purchase that is several years away.

emoore
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by emoore » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:19 pm

researcher wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm
wilked wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am
Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years
+1

You love your current car, you've never had any issues with it, and it has less than 100K miles.

At the rate of change in the auto industry, there is no sense speculating about some future purchase that is several years away.
+1. Things are starting to change quickly in the auto industry. In 3-5 years there might be totally different options. I'd hold out and wait until then.

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FrugalInvestor
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by FrugalInvestor » Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:30 pm

researcher wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm
wilked wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am
Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years
+1

You love your current car, you've never had any issues with it, and it has less than 100K miles.

At the rate of change in the auto industry, there is no sense speculating about some future purchase that is several years away.
+2

We owned an RX330 and it was as near to the perfect vehicle as we've ever had. We traded it at 140,000 miles and I'm sure it would have lasted much longer, we were just tired of it. We were recently in the market again and when we test drove the new RX it didn't live up to the expectations created by the old one.

Given the age and particularly the mileage on your current RX and the fact that you understandably are happy with it I'd wait for awhile longer. I'd also encourage you to do your research on the reliability and repair costs for the Macan especially since you're used to what is probably the most reliable SUV on the market.
Last edited by FrugalInvestor on Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Olemiss540
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Olemiss540 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:45 pm

OP,

What does your sex have to do with the decision to waste money on purchasing new? Curious how that justification works?

I recommend worrying about a new car when you hit 150k miles otherwise just splurge on what will bring you the most joy that you can afford to buy in cash. No further justification necessary if you can afford it.
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.

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Watty
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Watty » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:23 pm

Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.
How old is your kid?

One factor to consider is that the kid will eventually need to learn to drive and some people decide to let their kid have a hand-me-down car of the parents.

There is no one right answer as to if you should let your kid have one of your cars or not but when my kid was in high school we let him have my wife's old Subaru outback with a dented door and it got him through college. Part of our reasoning was that we would rather have him driving a relatively safe car than bumming rides with friends in high school and college that might not be safe drivers and might not have very safe cars.

Even if you didn't want to let your kid have one of the cars as a hand me down either your current car or the Camry might be a better car for the kid to learn to drive on.

Car insurance for a teenager to drive a late model Lexus would also likely be pretty high.
Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.
.....

I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.
If you have a long commute then you would get a lot of opportunity to enjoy the car. With as little as you will be driving the car the extra $23K might get you a lot more enjoyment by spending it on something else.

For example if it is your thing then $23K will buy you a lot of days on a tropical beach.

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Watty
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Watty » Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:33 pm

Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:58 am
On a side note: I know buying used cars is ideal but I prefer buying them new. As a female it gives me peace of mind.
Cars like a Honda or Toyota don't usually depreciate quickly enough to make late model used car a better choice than buying new. I am a guy and my general car buying plan is to buy a new Honda or Toyota when I can get a good deal then sell it when it is about ten years old or had around 120k miles on it. A ten year old car like that will sell for a surprising amount which makes replacing it with a new a a lot easier to justify financially. That may not be the cheapest way to own a car but that always give me a reliable car with fairly current safety features.

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aspirit
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by aspirit » Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:34 pm

Olemiss540 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:45 pm
OP,

What does your sex have to do with the decision to waste money on purchasing new? Curious how that justification works?

I recommend worrying about a new car when you hit 150k miles otherwise just splurge on what will bring you the most joy that you can afford to buy in cash. No further justification necessary if you can afford it.
hmm...thinking about data, odds, and historically speaking, the majority of females in the USA know less about autos than the majority of males. Correct?

Not to ignore reality.
Some buy cars for joy as you say, others for other reasons like transportation, reliability, prestige?, or many other particularities like they like the color.

New autos usually have warranties covering this, that, or everything bumper to bumper.
I'd suspect a female buying new lessen's the odds of her being taken* on the sale* or inevitable repairs*.
Maybe I'm mistaken, or overlooking something.

It seems to make the most sense to keep your current vehicle and save whatever you'd spend otherwise.
Time & tides wait for no one. A man has to know his limitations. | "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" | — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild ~

Flyer24
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Flyer24 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:22 pm

Olemiss540 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:45 pm
OP,

What does your sex have to do with the decision to waste money on purchasing new? Curious how that justification works?

I recommend worrying about a new car when you hit 150k miles otherwise just splurge on what will bring you the most joy that you can afford to buy in cash. No further justification necessary if you can afford it.
I can think if plenty of reasons for a female to want a new or fairly new car. Examples might be...warranty for dealing with repairs, better safety features especially if driving kids around, knowing that you have a better chance of not being stranded on the side of the road. I have no problem with driving older vehicles for myself. My car has 150K on it. However, I don’t want my wife driving one that old.

fyre4ce
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by fyre4ce » Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:35 pm

I agree that you should put more miles on the car you have. There are no problems with it, and it's just transportation. Think of it like an ATM with wheels that spits out 800 bucks tax-free every month.

Dave Ramsey says that everything you own with a motor should cost less than 50% of your annual gross income. I have a slightly different take, that all your cars should be worth less than 25% of your gross income (motor-related hobbies evaluated separately). Reliable transportation is just not that expensive where spending more than this is necessary.

I also don't like SUVs in general, although the RX isn't terrible. They're more expensive to buy and to maintain, and the high center of gravity, soft suspension, and knobby tires make them handle worse than cars. Unless someone needs to tow a heavy trailer I think a car or a hatchback/crossover is a much better choice. That said, my wife loves SUVs and I tried as hard as I could to talk her out of buying one, but did not succeed. Between the Model X for $120k and the Lexus NX 300h for $40k, we chose the NX 300h. (I thought the Model 3 was the perfect synergy between the two but she disagreed.) As far as SUV's go it's pretty good. Lighter frame, and basically the Prius powertrain, so it gets >30 mpg combined, which is better than my sedan. You could look at it as an alternative to the RX (which my wife drove, and didn't like as much). It's also $8k cheaper, and will have lower recurring costs.

But yeah, keep driving your IS 250 for a while longer.

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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:04 pm

This thread is now in the Personal Consumer Issues forum (car).
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Olemiss540
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Olemiss540 » Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:27 pm

Flyer24 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:22 pm
Olemiss540 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:45 pm
OP,

What does your sex have to do with the decision to waste money on purchasing new? Curious how that justification works?

I recommend worrying about a new car when you hit 150k miles otherwise just splurge on what will bring you the most joy that you can afford to buy in cash. No further justification necessary if you can afford it.
I can think if plenty of reasons for a female to want a new or fairly new car. Examples might be...warranty for dealing with repairs, better safety features especially if driving kids around, knowing that you have a better chance of not being stranded on the side of the road. I have no problem with driving older vehicles for myself. My car has 150K on it. However, I don’t want my wife driving one that old.
This is 2019. Cell phones. On star. Uber. Google. Buying a 20k mile Chevy Impala could save 10 thousand dollars over a brand new Honda Accord.

Being "standed" on the side of a road is a non-factor and I trust my wife to get an uber at her location within 10 minutes or a tow truck there if she is on an interstate. She's a grown adult in an adult world and deals with more stressful things than I do on a daily basis.

If you cant trust your wife's safety in a 20k or 60k mile Chevy, than you might want to lock her in the house to keep her fragile psyche safe.

Using your SEX to justify an increased purchase cost instead of using your wealth/savings as justification is a mind game and ridiculous in my opinion. Buy whatever you want and whatever you can afford. If you want the convenience of buying a new car instead of dealing with an inspection or certification process on a used car, its merely that (convenience).
I hold index funds because I do not overestimate my ability to pick stocks OR stock pickers.

MrCastaway
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by MrCastaway » Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:00 pm

I'd hold off longer as there will always be cars you want and trading a <100k lexus for a new camry or a new rx350 just seems silly. Wait a few years then buy the rx350 with all the options you want. Car technology is changing very quickly so in 3-4 years who knows that rx350 is going to come with. For the record I drive a base model camry i bought 2 years ago new.

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Planner01
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Planner01 » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:13 am

MrCastaway wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:00 pm
I'd hold off longer as there will always be cars you want and trading a <100k lexus for a new camry or a new rx350 just seems silly. Wait a few years then buy the rx350 with all the options you want. Car technology is changing very quickly so in 3-4 years who knows that rx350 is going to come with. For the record I drive a base model camry i bought 2 years ago new.
I like this approach.

Thank you all. I want to keep my car for 4 more years maybe and then get what I really want/like and just keep it for 12 years. I am better off financially and happier if I do that than buy a car I won’t like as much and because of that keep it for a shorter period of time.

Valuethinker
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:20 am

Cyclesafe wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:08 am
Yesterday, DW and I once again had the annual "Should we replace the RX Lexus yet?" conversation. It's been 100% reliable, still looks great inside and out, and doesn't look dated to us. Most importantly, DW, who is the primary driver, doesn't see a reason to buy another vehicle. It has 82k miles and will be 20 years old next year. Yes, twenty.

Nevertheless, I have picked out the RX's replacement - a Porsche Macan S that options out, with her preferences, at $72k. If we also keep it 20 years, that will bring us to age 85 when we'll likely be phasing out personal driving.
I doubt the Porsche will last 20 years. German cars tend to be beasts - fun to drive, but high depreciation and high Total Cost of Ownership, due to expensive repairs (both the parts, and the frequency). Watching my brother's BMW do that to him right now (9-10 years old).

A Lexus will give you rock solid reliability - although Toyota has had problems in more recent years. A Porsche? Not so much.
So the question for her is, does she spend the next 20 years driving what I want her to have (she is also slightly positive as the Lexus gets squirrelly at highway speeds) or do we continue to drive the RX Lexus (which we can park anywhere) into the ground.

For the OP, I'd say stick to the Lexus you already have. Dream about alternatives and when the timing is right (look for dealer discounts from year end inventory) re-consider making your move. Always remember, the thrill of owning a better car soon wears off. It's ultimately better for the purchase to remain inchoate as long as possible. Personally, I dream of the new Porsche 992 911 - but naturally I dream of other things that I choose to not actually have also.
What you say is consistent with all the psychological research. The trip to Galapagos will live with you forever. The car? The pleased with will last as long as the new car smell. Experiences over things.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:24 am

emoore wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:19 pm
researcher wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:13 pm
wilked wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 6:01 am
Keep the car, ask again in 3-5 years
+1

You love your current car, you've never had any issues with it, and it has less than 100K miles.

At the rate of change in the auto industry, there is no sense speculating about some future purchase that is several years away.
+1. Things are starting to change quickly in the auto industry. In 3-5 years there might be totally different options. I'd hold out and wait until then.
+1

Absolutely, wait. The auto industry is beginning to change at blinding speed.

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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:38 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 am
Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
Which car would make more sense to buy:

A. A Toyota Camry for $25k and probably only keep it for 4-5 years because it would be more for practical financial reasons than desire.

B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.

I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.

I consider the Camry because of its reliability and value. I enjoy saving money so that’s my primary purpose for it. The only thing I spend money on is travel, around $10k a year. But I still manage to save almost half of my income and the mortgage is getting paid down aggressively to where it should be paid off before I am 50.

Do I splurge and get what I really want or enjoy the savings of a cheaper car?
Buy a hybrid or an electric car. We spend too much on foreign oil as it is.
The US could be a net oil exporter within 10 years.

The rise in US domestic oil production due to fracking is stunning - blindsided many industry analysts.

There *is* a good economic argument for conservation. American drivers are the world's single largest user of petroleum (Chinese are close behind). Something like 1 barrel out of 9 barrels in the world goes into an American car or truck (crude simplification because of course there are lots of other refined products in a barrel of oil). If the US conserves oil, then there's more oil available (eventually) to export. Or just to use for other purposes. Opportunity Cost of a barrel of oil in the language of economics.

Oil in the world in effect goes into a giant bathtub. Every buyer and seller then pays/ receives the single price (3 main price indices - West Texas Intermediate, Brent Crude (North Sea), Saudi Aramco light), adjusted for factors like location, transport costs, grade of crude oil, type of refined product. The US produces more is nice for the USA but has a much smaller effect on the price we all pay for oil*.

But the main argument in favour of hybrids & electric cars is environmental, in the USA at this point.

A bit from London, though. Urban air pollution has become a really big issue. Nitrous oxides and PM 2.5 microparticles in particular. The negative health effects are much greater than previously understood. An Ultra Low Emission Zone has been established, raising the cost for high emissions vehicles by c USD 18/ day to drive into the central zone (£12.50). And ULEZ is being expanded to a ring roughly 10 miles in diameter around London's centre.

Urban air pollution is the new frontier in the environment (along with disposal of single use plastics).

There are cities in America with as bad problems as London, or worse**. Denver and LA in particular, but not only (New York must be bad).

It's reasonable to expect that increased automotive emissions regulations are coming.

* what fracking has done is make the supply curve far more responsive to price. Fluctuations of 1-2m barrels/ day used to have a big impact on oil prices because supply and demand were nearly totally Short Term price inelastic. Now? Oil goes up $ 20/ bl and fracking activity picks up and drives the price right back down (at least to $60/ bl, below that you start to get uneconomic producers dropping out).

** you did not make the diesel car mistake, as Europe did. But the problem is worse than we thought, health wise, so it's going to be a public health issue that runs and runs.

finite_difference
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by finite_difference » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:32 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:38 am
FoolStreet wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 am
Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
Which car would make more sense to buy:

A. A Toyota Camry for $25k and probably only keep it for 4-5 years because it would be more for practical financial reasons than desire.

B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.

I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.

I consider the Camry because of its reliability and value. I enjoy saving money so that’s my primary purpose for it. The only thing I spend money on is travel, around $10k a year. But I still manage to save almost half of my income and the mortgage is getting paid down aggressively to where it should be paid off before I am 50.

Do I splurge and get what I really want or enjoy the savings of a cheaper car?
Buy a hybrid or an electric car. We spend too much on foreign oil as it is.
The US could be a net oil exporter within 10 years.

The rise in US domestic oil production due to fracking is stunning - blindsided many industry analysts.

There *is* a good economic argument for conservation. American drivers are the world's single largest user of petroleum (Chinese are close behind). Something like 1 barrel out of 9 barrels in the world goes into an American car or truck (crude simplification because of course there are lots of other refined products in a barrel of oil). If the US conserves oil, then there's more oil available (eventually) to export. Or just to use for other purposes. Opportunity Cost of a barrel of oil in the language of economics.

Oil in the world in effect goes into a giant bathtub. Every buyer and seller then pays/ receives the single price (3 main price indices - West Texas Intermediate, Brent Crude (North Sea), Saudi Aramco light), adjusted for factors like location, transport costs, grade of crude oil, type of refined product. The US produces more is nice for the USA but has a much smaller effect on the price we all pay for oil*.

But the main argument in favour of hybrids & electric cars is environmental, in the USA at this point.

A bit from London, though. Urban air pollution has become a really big issue. Nitrous oxides and PM 2.5 microparticles in particular. The negative health effects are much greater than previously understood. An Ultra Low Emission Zone has been established, raising the cost for high emissions vehicles by c USD 18/ day to drive into the central zone (£12.50). And ULEZ is being expanded to a ring roughly 10 miles in diameter around London's centre.

Urban air pollution is the new frontier in the environment (along with disposal of single use plastics).

There are cities in America with as bad problems as London, or worse**. Denver and LA in particular, but not only (New York must be bad).

It's reasonable to expect that increased automotive emissions regulations are coming.

* what fracking has done is make the supply curve far more responsive to price. Fluctuations of 1-2m barrels/ day used to have a big impact on oil prices because supply and demand were nearly totally Short Term price inelastic. Now? Oil goes up $ 20/ bl and fracking activity picks up and drives the price right back down (at least to $60/ bl, below that you start to get uneconomic producers dropping out).

** you did not make the diesel car mistake, as Europe did. But the problem is worse than we thought, health wise, so it's going to be a public health issue that runs and runs.
European cities are smellier than American ones, because Europe has much more diesel and weak regulations on NOx. So America is currently leading the pack.

Of course once EVs take over I think we’ll all be shocked at how much better the air quality is. We’ve all simply gotten used to the noise and smell of ICE cars. But the US air quality standards have made a massive difference, and I completely take it for granted until I travel to Europe/Asia.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

finite_difference
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by finite_difference » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:41 am

To the OP: I’d keep your car until 150k miles, and then buy another Lexus. It’s going to be hard to downgrade to a Camry. But keeping your car a little longer will make up for the savings :beer
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh

Valuethinker
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:23 am

finite_difference wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:32 am


European cities are smellier than American ones, because Europe has much more diesel and weak regulations on NOx. So America is currently leading the pack.

Of course once EVs take over I think we’ll all be shocked at how much better the air quality is. We’ve all simply gotten used to the noise and smell of ICE cars. But the US air quality standards have made a massive difference, and I completely take it for granted until I travel to Europe/Asia.
I don't know what the comparative stats are for air pollution but the US also has much higher car use. And many more trucks (both pickup but also large trucks).

And some US cities, Los Angeles and Denver in particular (but not only) have temperature inversion issues - geographic bowls in the midst of mountains. They get bad air pollution. I can't think but a city like Atlanta, and maybe Phoenix, have a problem.

Agree Asia is just awful, to the limited extent I have been to Asia (India, China primarily).

emoore
Posts: 526
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Re: Which car to buy?

Post by emoore » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:43 pm

finite_difference wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:32 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:38 am
FoolStreet wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:17 am
Planner01 wrote:
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:39 am
Which car would make more sense to buy:

A. A Toyota Camry for $25k and probably only keep it for 4-5 years because it would be more for practical financial reasons than desire.

B. A Lexus RX 350 for $48k and probable keep it for 10-11 years as I would enjoy it much more.

I currently own a Lexus IS 250 and love the car and the brand. Almost a decade with it and have less than 100k with it. I work from home full time so my mileage is low other than taking child to school. That will stop soon.

I consider the Camry because of its reliability and value. I enjoy saving money so that’s my primary purpose for it. The only thing I spend money on is travel, around $10k a year. But I still manage to save almost half of my income and the mortgage is getting paid down aggressively to where it should be paid off before I am 50.

Do I splurge and get what I really want or enjoy the savings of a cheaper car?
Buy a hybrid or an electric car. We spend too much on foreign oil as it is.
The US could be a net oil exporter within 10 years.

The rise in US domestic oil production due to fracking is stunning - blindsided many industry analysts.

There *is* a good economic argument for conservation. American drivers are the world's single largest user of petroleum (Chinese are close behind). Something like 1 barrel out of 9 barrels in the world goes into an American car or truck (crude simplification because of course there are lots of other refined products in a barrel of oil). If the US conserves oil, then there's more oil available (eventually) to export. Or just to use for other purposes. Opportunity Cost of a barrel of oil in the language of economics.

Oil in the world in effect goes into a giant bathtub. Every buyer and seller then pays/ receives the single price (3 main price indices - West Texas Intermediate, Brent Crude (North Sea), Saudi Aramco light), adjusted for factors like location, transport costs, grade of crude oil, type of refined product. The US produces more is nice for the USA but has a much smaller effect on the price we all pay for oil*.

But the main argument in favour of hybrids & electric cars is environmental, in the USA at this point.

A bit from London, though. Urban air pollution has become a really big issue. Nitrous oxides and PM 2.5 microparticles in particular. The negative health effects are much greater than previously understood. An Ultra Low Emission Zone has been established, raising the cost for high emissions vehicles by c USD 18/ day to drive into the central zone (£12.50). And ULEZ is being expanded to a ring roughly 10 miles in diameter around London's centre.

Urban air pollution is the new frontier in the environment (along with disposal of single use plastics).

There are cities in America with as bad problems as London, or worse**. Denver and LA in particular, but not only (New York must be bad).

It's reasonable to expect that increased automotive emissions regulations are coming.

* what fracking has done is make the supply curve far more responsive to price. Fluctuations of 1-2m barrels/ day used to have a big impact on oil prices because supply and demand were nearly totally Short Term price inelastic. Now? Oil goes up $ 20/ bl and fracking activity picks up and drives the price right back down (at least to $60/ bl, below that you start to get uneconomic producers dropping out).

** you did not make the diesel car mistake, as Europe did. But the problem is worse than we thought, health wise, so it's going to be a public health issue that runs and runs.
European cities are smellier than American ones, because Europe has much more diesel and weak regulations on NOx. So America is currently leading the pack.

Of course once EVs take over I think we’ll all be shocked at how much better the air quality is. We’ve all simply gotten used to the noise and smell of ICE cars. But the US air quality standards have made a massive difference, and I completely take it for granted until I travel to Europe/Asia.
As a resident of the Denver suburbs, I'm really looking forward to EVs taking over and reducing the air pollution. It's a beautiful place to live and will be even nicer without ICE cars. Can't wait.

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