Is Tesla Going To Survive?

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rich126
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by rich126 » Thu May 23, 2019 7:26 am

There was the story about Apple supposedly wanting to buy Tesla a while ago but they would only do so if Musk was removed which killed any potential deal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/apple-b ... -says.html

Not sure if I believe that. And it seems like Tesla is in more need of a proven car manufacturer as opposed to a tech company but I sure don't know (nor do I own any stock or any cars from Tesla).

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Tycoon
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Tycoon » Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:18 am
Elon is not a genius,... Agreed

People are so gullible. Agreed
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. I see the world as it is; not how I wish it to be.

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matjen
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by matjen » Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 am

DanMahowny deserves to take a bow and some of the people on this thread with $4,000 or $2,000 price targets, Tesla turnover being meaningless, Saudi Fund buyout story defenses should take some time for reflection. The Tesla growth story is dead. Now we have some weird "one-million in 2020 robo-taxi" lie as their growth angle. The fact that OP is talking about buying a car that doesn't even exist is a little window into this whole mess.

Listen people, SpaceX isn't buying Tesla nor vice versa, because neither company could raise the needed $50 billion to buy out the other. Any “strategic” deal would have to be a share swap, w/$TSLA the surviving entity. This doesn’t solve their problems. Likewise, no one else is buying Tesla. There is nothing about Tesla that is special (other than ability to sucker people and complete incompetence at manufacturing). Apples largest purchase was Beats at 3 Billion. Compare what Tesla would cost now. Even if the stock gets really low. Say $25 or whatever you still have like 16 billion in debt I think.

As someone mentioned above (without saying the big B word), the only chance for Tesla is bankruptcy. THEN, it will be possible to restructure and someone can come in perhaps. No guarantee. People are way overstating the brand value. I see someone in a relatively newer Tesla and think "Sucker."

HOWEVER, if you are in the market for a second or third car and live in a large urban environment I think the current hidden 35K Tesla Model 3 is an interesting gamble. Made like crap but because they are so broke they are basically giving you a 40K model I think. Full pleather rather than cloth, often you get the stereo, larger battery (with software limitations), etc. So there is some value there if you can wait for the right one and not accept a crappily made one. Pray you can get it fixed effectively 4 years from now of course.
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protagonist
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by protagonist » Thu May 23, 2019 7:53 am

If you already bought a Tesla 3, don't sell it. Save it for your children. Consider it a $35000 long term speculative investment.
If you didn't and have gambling money, and the company crashes, consider buying a used Tesla S within a few years of when the company crashes for a quarter of its original sale price.
In 20 years I would guess there is a good chance it will be a precious antique, like a de Lorean.
Last edited by protagonist on Thu May 23, 2019 7:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

3funder
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by 3funder » Thu May 23, 2019 7:54 am

I don't know if Tesla is going to survive. Either way, I wouldn't splurge for an expensive vehicle.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 23, 2019 8:00 am

protagonist wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:53 am
If you already bought a Tesla 3, don't sell it. Save it for your children. Consider it a $35000 long term speculative investment.
If you didn't and have gambling money, and the company crashes, consider buying a used Tesla S within a few years of when the company crashes for a quarter of its original sale price.
In 20 years I would guess there is a good chance it will be a precious antique, like a de Lorean.
Dodge Charger - 1971 ish

That, I think, is a better example.

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Nate79
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Nate79 » Thu May 23, 2019 8:00 am

I disagree that Tesla and Musk has changed the industry and made a huge revolution to the future of cars. I think he convinced a lot of people that he has revolutionized the industry. But the reality is that the industry was already moving to electric sales. He wasn't the first (by far). The driver is environmental reasons that have been pushing thr industry for years and I don't think Tesla has had a major push on the majors to make EVs. While their sales have grown the total is a gnat compared to even the total sales of a single truck model of Ford or GM. They are a teeny tiny maker in the grand scheme of things and that we are even talking about them as if they were a major player just goes to show how much Musk has duped the consumers and especially the press.

If we look at the history of EVs it has been a financial disaster (the Leaf, Tesla, etc).

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Bacchus01 » Thu May 23, 2019 8:04 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:30 am
Helo80 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:18 pm
Tesla made the first popular and mass-consumer EV. There are competitors, e.g. Nissan Leaf, but when people think EV, they think Tesla, and vice versa.

However, Audi, and I believe Porsche, have had advertisements on TV for their EVs. BMW, Mercedes, et. al are not far behind. In the not too distant future, European luxury brands will respond with their own EV offerings and provide real competition to Tesla.
Yes. But no.

It will be wrenchingly hard for those companies to separate themselves from 120 years of Internal Combustion Engine and drivetrain. To launch EV models that directly compete with their core models.
For better or worse, EVs now are a commodity left for more affluent and higher NW individuals. The used market just is not there with the age of Tesla's, and people buying $50 to $100K + Tesla's tend to be more affluent. That being said, this group of consumers is fickle as well, and sometimes rich people like to be unique and have different toys from everything else. 4 years ago, that may have been Tesla Model S... Now, it may be these new Audi's coming out. When Mercedes, BMW, etc. do their own EVs, they'll move to those brands.
I think a Tesla is still an aspirational good - a high performance EV. Luxury in a way BMW, Mercedes, Lexus have just not yet managed.

That brilliant "Tesla nod" add says it all. You can buy an EV, be a total geek, and still get attention.
I am very neutral on Tesla and Musk. I am very much like an index fund manager of an S&P500 ---- I really do not root for or against Tesla. I just have always felt that Musk has a big mouth (but it absolutely works for promoting Tesla and Tesla's interests) and is not so good with on-time delivery promises. But, I do worry that Tesla in the not too distant future will have serious competition on their hands. The people that can drop $80k+ on his cars will have more options very soon.


EDIT: Another thing about Tesla is that I never understood how it had a market cap similar to GM, Ford, and other majors that have produced automobiles for many, many, many decades and regularly push out millions of vehicles year in, year out. I mean, Ford would have to have a terrible year (and execs would be replaced), if they sold fewer than 800,000 F-series trucks. Invariably, the Big 3 are working on their own EV offerings. The distribution channels are already well-established.

Musk and his Tesla were absolute visionaries --- I give them that. But, I think that people were translating their enthusiasm for him into Tesla's value and now reality is catching up.


EDIT2: Remember, when the 2009 Toyota Prius came out, it was a hot commodity as gas prices were high and at 50 mpg in the city, it was quite green. I remember that Toyota raised the MSRP by $500 to try and taper demand. Leonardo DiCaprio had a Prius and raved about how good it was for the planet. Now, I'm sure DiCaprio has moved on to Tesla's. Down the road, I'm sure he'll get a new EV toy that is not Tesla. Prius used to be the king, then Tesla took over, and invariably, somebody will take it from here. It's the free market.
And the Toyota Prius has inhabited a niche very well - heavily used urban vehicles like taxis.

Tesla could run out of cash. But it has disrupted the industry and it will be hard/ painful for the other luxury car makers to catch up.

It was counterintuitive. I saw EVs as the natural 2nd or 3rd family car - the runabout for urban driving. Nissan Leaf style. However instead Musk went for the high ground, and took it. The future does not look like the BMW i3 - although I see (London) quite a few of them around (they get an exemption from the congestion charge, I believe).

The market cap got silly -- triumph of hope & hype over reality. Musk's use of debt might kill it - the company should have avoided using debt as a funding source.

They are close to the end of the road as a company, but as a piece of technology, well, it does very much look like they've changed the world ...
How has it disrupted the industry?

Building an electric Camry and charging $90K is disruptive? How?

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 23, 2019 8:06 am

I don't know the answer to the titular question, but would respond:

Is SpaceX going to survive?

It's still privately owned. So far as I can tell it's doing much better at meeting its operational objectives, although because it's private I don't know about financials, than Tesla.

I do think Mr. Musk should calm down on his tweeting, though. It doesn't help him or his companies.

PJW

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DanMahowny
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by DanMahowny » Thu May 23, 2019 8:14 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 10:25 pm
This kind of post is just asking for trolling. Please don’t feed them. For everyone’s sanity, please ask a moderator to close this thread.
Nothing irritates the cult more than the non-believers.

Sorry man, but it's true. :happy
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itsgot8
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by itsgot8 » Thu May 23, 2019 9:07 am

Bill McNeal wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:02 pm
While Audi and other legacy makes are coming into the EV space, Tesla will maintain key advantages:

1) OTA software updates GM just released that its new electrical architecture will allow OTA. I'm sure other OEMs are not far behind either.
2) Lack of a dealer network
3) Supercharger network at key locations to enable long distance travel GM is working with EVgo and other charging networks to improve availability of charging to consumers.
4) Autopilot GM has Super Cruise on certain Cadillac models and will continue to proliferate it through additional models and brands. Volvo has Pilot Assist. Cruise Automation and Waymo are viewed as the two leading companies working on AV technology. Whatever slight advantage TSLA has with Autopilot, it's not going to last long. Not to mention the bad reputation it's gaining due to accidents resulting from owners using the Autopilot feature.
5) Brand equity

Musk needs to reduce the cash burn and realize self sustaining cash flow. Minimize need for raising cash. If they get shut out of capital markets due to loss of investor confidence then only a buyer will save them. I
Over half the list are not advantages since other OEMs already share those technologies or are aggressively pursuing them. IMO, the company will eventually be bought out, restructured and divested. The biggest asset is their battery technology. I can see the Tesla name surviving as the battery and electric motor technology leader. Kind of like how RAM trucks advertise being powered by Cummins diesel engines. Think of ABC vehicle brand, "powered by Tesla".

ERISA Stone
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by ERISA Stone » Thu May 23, 2019 9:32 am

itsgot8 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:07 am
Bill McNeal wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:02 pm
While Audi and other legacy makes are coming into the EV space, Tesla will maintain key advantages:

1) OTA software updates GM just released that its new electrical architecture will allow OTA. I'm sure other OEMs are not far behind either.
2) Lack of a dealer network
3) Supercharger network at key locations to enable long distance travel GM is working with EVgo and other charging networks to improve availability of charging to consumers.
4) Autopilot GM has Super Cruise on certain Cadillac models and will continue to proliferate it through additional models and brands. Volvo has Pilot Assist. Cruise Automation and Waymo are viewed as the two leading companies working on AV technology. Whatever slight advantage TSLA has with Autopilot, it's not going to last long. Not to mention the bad reputation it's gaining due to accidents resulting from owners using the Autopilot feature.
5) Brand equity

Musk needs to reduce the cash burn and realize self sustaining cash flow. Minimize need for raising cash. If they get shut out of capital markets due to loss of investor confidence then only a buyer will save them. I
Over half the list are not advantages since other OEMs already share those technologies or are aggressively pursuing them. IMO, the company will eventually be bought out, restructured and divested. The biggest asset is their battery technology. I can see the Tesla name surviving as the battery and electric motor technology leader. Kind of like how RAM trucks advertise being powered by Cummins diesel engines. Think of ABC vehicle brand, "powered by Tesla".
Are the GM chargers going to be as fast as Tesla's superchargers? It's not just the network, it's how fast Tesla's recharge. I've always thought Tesla would have a leg up until someone can compete with their charging network (and the speed of the network).

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Elric
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Elric » Thu May 23, 2019 9:52 am

mmcmonster wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:51 pm
A good friend of mine has the Model 3. He loves the autodrive and uses it every day on his 30 mile commute to work. The other day it drove him to work even though his allergies were so bad that he had trouble seeing the road. I'm sure he exaggerates about how bad his vision was, but it's still nice to know that the car could take care of him if he missed something.
Except when it won't! Tesla's image processing software ignores objects that are stationary with respect to your car's direction of travel. This filters out bridge overpasses, billboards on the side of the road, etc. Unfortunately it also ignores trucks crossing your path at a 90 degree angle or parked fire trucks. You need to stay alert and be capable of picking up what it misses. The fact that it's generally very good makes it hard for humans to continue to pay attention.
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cableguy
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by cableguy » Thu May 23, 2019 10:01 am

If they put out a press release that includes the words or terms "AI", Robots, Bots, Amazon, and Warren Buffet"......the stock will rebound....

sk2101
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by sk2101 » Thu May 23, 2019 10:09 am

Bill McNeal wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:02 pm
While Audi and other legacy makes are coming into the EV space, Tesla will maintain key advantages:

2) Lack of a dealer network
To me, this is the only thing that merits being salvaged since it cannot be replicated by any other legacy automaker. It is a huge competitive advantage, and as a consumer it is something I clamor for and would rather give my business to a company that can sell directly to me vs. one that has to sell though a convoluted and inefficient network of middlemen.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Jags4186 » Thu May 23, 2019 10:44 am

The fact that the stock had a >5% swing based upon an email Musk sent to employees last night is enough reason for me to stay as far away from the company as possible. Based on history nothing he says can be believed until it happens. One of the biggest problems with holding this stock.

MichCPA
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by MichCPA » Thu May 23, 2019 10:48 am

Tesla will survive even if they go bankrupt, the brand is too valuable.

Whether they get to that point is a open question. They seem pretty tapped out on the debt market. Their most recent fund raising was heavily equity/ convertible debt based. They regularly miss previous guidance and targets. The board is a joke and cannot check Elon Musk. A surge in gas prices would be a great help to them.

Also, people need to stop assuming that Toyota, GM, Volkswagen, etc. engineers are so unaware of electricity that they can't screw in a light bulb. Those auto makers can make electrics, but don't produce them at scale because it isn't profitable (As Tesla has proven). Tesla doesn't have as much unique technology as people think, especially at their price range.

EDIT: Another major risk is Tesla's ability to easily import rare earth metals into the US from China. Any issues there would be disastrous for them.
Last edited by MichCPA on Thu May 23, 2019 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

ohai
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by ohai » Thu May 23, 2019 10:49 am

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 3:46 am
ohai wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 10:22 pm
Hi guys, just some market points that I read about briefly a couple days ago:

CDS implies a 40% default chance within 5 years.
Tesla bonds have YTM of about 9%.

So, the market thinks there is a good chance of default, but that it is far from a sure thing.

In my opinion, they aren't going to go bankrupt. In the worst case, they will be bought out - either by some company with a stronger balance sheet, by Saudi sovereign fund as a trophy asset, or perhaps broken up and sold into parts.

Still, their situation is not good, and I don't think there is a strong probability that Model 3 demand will support their 2019-2020 cash needs. They are going to have to issue more shares, as I don't think their investors want anything to do with increasing Tesla's debt load.
On the contrary, the most likely scenario is bankruptcy. Why buy a company with high cost debt exposing the purported purchasers balance sheet to that? The best opportunity to capture the technology is to buy it from the senior lenders for pennies on the dollar. Lenders are not in the business of making cars, they will come to the table willing to take a haircut if they can recoup most of their principle. Possible acquirers - Alphabet, maybe just maybe a private equity company, but not likely a foreign company/entity will be permitted.

As for CDS, it’s an imperfect gauge and one where market participants have been less than accurate - I like to think of it as a momentum gauge, more current bets against now, next week it shifts for any of a dozen reasons that may or may not be rational or logical and suddenly CDS are trading lower. Wall Street where crowds run together until they don’t.
Re: your bankruptcy comment. I don't believe Tesla's equity is worth zero, and there will be likely several interest parties in a buyout scenario. Why would anyone pay more than bankruptcy value? Because buyers are subject to competition and cannot simply dictate the pricing.

CDS is not a perfect predictor of bankruptcy odds, but it is still the best predictor. Unless you have a way to quantify bias in the CDS price, it is a better indicator than your opinion or my opinion.

Coltrane75
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Coltrane75 » Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am

I'm not sure but I wish I had started shorting the stock a few months ago.

I was always a Tesla skeptic and was never a fan of Elon Musk; he's a very skilled "Confidence Man".

If they don't make it maybe they get bought up or just go bankrupt.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 23, 2019 10:54 am

Bacchus01 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:04 am
Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 4:30 am
Helo80 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:18 pm
Tesla made the first popular and mass-consumer EV. There are competitors, e.g. Nissan Leaf, but when people think EV, they think Tesla, and vice versa.

However, Audi, and I believe Porsche, have had advertisements on TV for their EVs. BMW, Mercedes, et. al are not far behind. In the not too distant future, European luxury brands will respond with their own EV offerings and provide real competition to Tesla.
Yes. But no.

It will be wrenchingly hard for those companies to separate themselves from 120 years of Internal Combustion Engine and drivetrain. To launch EV models that directly compete with their core models.
For better or worse, EVs now are a commodity left for more affluent and higher NW individuals. The used market just is not there with the age of Tesla's, and people buying $50 to $100K + Tesla's tend to be more affluent. That being said, this group of consumers is fickle as well, and sometimes rich people like to be unique and have different toys from everything else. 4 years ago, that may have been Tesla Model S... Now, it may be these new Audi's coming out. When Mercedes, BMW, etc. do their own EVs, they'll move to those brands.
I think a Tesla is still an aspirational good - a high performance EV. Luxury in a way BMW, Mercedes, Lexus have just not yet managed.

That brilliant "Tesla nod" add says it all. You can buy an EV, be a total geek, and still get attention.
I am very neutral on Tesla and Musk. I am very much like an index fund manager of an S&P500 ---- I really do not root for or against Tesla. I just have always felt that Musk has a big mouth (but it absolutely works for promoting Tesla and Tesla's interests) and is not so good with on-time delivery promises. But, I do worry that Tesla in the not too distant future will have serious competition on their hands. The people that can drop $80k+ on his cars will have more options very soon.


EDIT: Another thing about Tesla is that I never understood how it had a market cap similar to GM, Ford, and other majors that have produced automobiles for many, many, many decades and regularly push out millions of vehicles year in, year out. I mean, Ford would have to have a terrible year (and execs would be replaced), if they sold fewer than 800,000 F-series trucks. Invariably, the Big 3 are working on their own EV offerings. The distribution channels are already well-established.

Musk and his Tesla were absolute visionaries --- I give them that. But, I think that people were translating their enthusiasm for him into Tesla's value and now reality is catching up.


EDIT2: Remember, when the 2009 Toyota Prius came out, it was a hot commodity as gas prices were high and at 50 mpg in the city, it was quite green. I remember that Toyota raised the MSRP by $500 to try and taper demand. Leonardo DiCaprio had a Prius and raved about how good it was for the planet. Now, I'm sure DiCaprio has moved on to Tesla's. Down the road, I'm sure he'll get a new EV toy that is not Tesla. Prius used to be the king, then Tesla took over, and invariably, somebody will take it from here. It's the free market.
And the Toyota Prius has inhabited a niche very well - heavily used urban vehicles like taxis.

Tesla could run out of cash. But it has disrupted the industry and it will be hard/ painful for the other luxury car makers to catch up.

It was counterintuitive. I saw EVs as the natural 2nd or 3rd family car - the runabout for urban driving. Nissan Leaf style. However instead Musk went for the high ground, and took it. The future does not look like the BMW i3 - although I see (London) quite a few of them around (they get an exemption from the congestion charge, I believe).

The market cap got silly -- triumph of hope & hype over reality. Musk's use of debt might kill it - the company should have avoided using debt as a funding source.

They are close to the end of the road as a company, but as a piece of technology, well, it does very much look like they've changed the world ...
How has it disrupted the industry?

Building an electric Camry and charging $90K is disruptive? How?
I think I have answered the question, above -- this has become the best selling car in its category. It wasn't clear there was a market, and it turns out there is ...
Last edited by Valuethinker on Thu May 23, 2019 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu May 23, 2019 10:56 am

Elric wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:52 am
mmcmonster wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:51 pm
A good friend of mine has the Model 3. He loves the autodrive and uses it every day on his 30 mile commute to work. The other day it drove him to work even though his allergies were so bad that he had trouble seeing the road. I'm sure he exaggerates about how bad his vision was, but it's still nice to know that the car could take care of him if he missed something.
Except when it won't! Tesla's image processing software ignores objects that are stationary with respect to your car's direction of travel. This filters out bridge overpasses, billboards on the side of the road, etc. Unfortunately it also ignores trucks crossing your path at a 90 degree angle or parked fire trucks. You need to stay alert and be capable of picking up what it misses. The fact that it's generally very good makes it hard for humans to continue to pay attention.
At least some people I read whose opinions seem sound suggest that that's the problem with the whole automated vehicle "industry".

The 90% is solved. To get to 100% is really, really hard.

And the technology is actually dangerous if it only works 90%, 92% -- because it reduces driver alertness.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by JediMisty » Thu May 23, 2019 10:58 am

rj342 wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:22 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:59 pm
Opinion is polarized, and the situation is in such flux that I feel reluctance to gauss weber Tesla will survive Musk's having been oersted as chairman.
Ohm my god, I hope the bad press doesn't ampere their recovery. Joule regret if if it does.
:oops:

MichCPA
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by MichCPA » Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am

ERISA Stone wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:32 am
itsgot8 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:07 am
Bill McNeal wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:02 pm
While Audi and other legacy makes are coming into the EV space, Tesla will maintain key advantages:

1) OTA software updates GM just released that its new electrical architecture will allow OTA. I'm sure other OEMs are not far behind either.
2) Lack of a dealer network
3) Supercharger network at key locations to enable long distance travel GM is working with EVgo and other charging networks to improve availability of charging to consumers.
4) Autopilot GM has Super Cruise on certain Cadillac models and will continue to proliferate it through additional models and brands. Volvo has Pilot Assist. Cruise Automation and Waymo are viewed as the two leading companies working on AV technology. Whatever slight advantage TSLA has with Autopilot, it's not going to last long. Not to mention the bad reputation it's gaining due to accidents resulting from owners using the Autopilot feature.
5) Brand equity

Musk needs to reduce the cash burn and realize self sustaining cash flow. Minimize need for raising cash. If they get shut out of capital markets due to loss of investor confidence then only a buyer will save them. I
Over half the list are not advantages since other OEMs already share those technologies or are aggressively pursuing them. IMO, the company will eventually be bought out, restructured and divested. The biggest asset is their battery technology. I can see the Tesla name surviving as the battery and electric motor technology leader. Kind of like how RAM trucks advertise being powered by Cummins diesel engines. Think of ABC vehicle brand, "powered by Tesla".
Are the GM chargers going to be as fast as Tesla's superchargers? It's not just the network, it's how fast Tesla's recharge. I've always thought Tesla would have a leg up until someone can compete with their charging network (and the speed of the network).
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.

MichCPA
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by MichCPA » Thu May 23, 2019 11:01 am

Coltrane75 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am
I'm not sure but I wish I had started shorting the stock a few months ago.

I was always a Tesla skeptic and was never a fan of Elon Musk; he's a very skilled "Confidence Man".

If they don't make it maybe they get bought up or just go bankrupt.
Shorting requires you to not only be right about price, you have to be right about timing, that's a tough way to make money.

perl
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by perl » Thu May 23, 2019 11:02 am

In the long run, nothing survives.

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matjen
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by matjen » Thu May 23, 2019 11:07 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:54 am

I think I have answered the question, above -- this has become the best selling car in its category. It wasn't clear there was a market, and it turns out there is ...
Be careful not to confuse pent up demand and ongoing flow. Be careful not confuse a product with big consumer-facing, tax incentives with one without those same incentives. Model S and X year over year numbers are horrid. I expect Model 3 numbers to flat line and/or decrease. That has been part of the con. Focus on production when the demand isn't really there in the medium term.

Agree there is a market but the size will not be huge for awhile imo.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

itsgot8
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by itsgot8 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:20 am

ERISA Stone wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:32 am

Are the GM chargers going to be as fast as Tesla's superchargers? It's not just the network, it's how fast Tesla's recharge. I've always thought Tesla would have a leg up until someone can compete with their charging network (and the speed of the network).
It really depends on the technical capabilities of their partners. Time will tell. However, as MichCPA said, it's very likely chargers will become standardized. Can you imagine if every OEM had a unique filler neck design with various diameters that required specific pump designs?

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by harikaried » Thu May 23, 2019 11:29 am

Nate79 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:00 am
I think he convinced a lot of people that he has revolutionized the industry. But the reality is that the industry was already moving to electric sales
That's an interesting point because it definitely seems like the legacy auto industry is happy to continue at whatever pace it was moving towards electric vehicles. New 2019 electric vehicles from Audi and Jaguar are having trouble beating 2012 Tesla Model S range/cost/performance let alone the improvements Tesla has made over the last 7 years.

So for OP, if you're considering a Model Y, I suppose you can wait 7 years for a competitor's version that probably wouldn't match the safety or technology of a Tesla.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by HomerJ » Thu May 23, 2019 11:31 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:56 am
Elric wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:52 am
mmcmonster wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:51 pm
A good friend of mine has the Model 3. He loves the autodrive and uses it every day on his 30 mile commute to work. The other day it drove him to work even though his allergies were so bad that he had trouble seeing the road. I'm sure he exaggerates about how bad his vision was, but it's still nice to know that the car could take care of him if he missed something.
Except when it won't! Tesla's image processing software ignores objects that are stationary with respect to your car's direction of travel. This filters out bridge overpasses, billboards on the side of the road, etc. Unfortunately it also ignores trucks crossing your path at a 90 degree angle or parked fire trucks. You need to stay alert and be capable of picking up what it misses. The fact that it's generally very good makes it hard for humans to continue to pay attention.
At least some people I read whose opinions seem sound suggest that that's the problem with the whole automated vehicle "industry".

The 90% is solved. To get to 100% is really, really hard.

And the technology is actually dangerous if it only works 90%, 92% -- because it reduces driver alertness.
This.

90%, even 99% isn't good enough. In fact, it makes things WORSE.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:38 am

MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.
Indeed.

My take on the issue is that unless batteries themselves are standardized and can be easily and quickly swapped at charging stations, as Musk has suggested, electric cars will never dominate the market. Without such a process, either the cost of the vehicle will be too high or the distance the vehicle can be driven will be too low.

Personally, I'm more favorable to compressed natural gas vehicles. All of the technology to make them work very well is already there, and the costs aren't prohibitive and would only go down with mass production. Manufacturers of CNG vehicles already include Ford, Toyota, Honda, Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Kia, Suzuki, Volvo, Fiat, and Volkswagen. The biggest hurdle right now is getting an adequate number of CNG pumping stations, but many gas stations already have natural gas supply lines, so it's mostly just a matter of them getting a CNG pump.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by BionicBillWalsh » Thu May 23, 2019 11:39 am

This stock could as easily go to $500 as it could to zero.

Any confluence of factors could push it up...and quickly.

Price of oil spikes. Especially if war breaks out in the Middle East. Chinese trade talks could become productive quickly. An entire State or Country could accelerate the demise of Internal Combustion Engines by banning them in a short period of time. Aramco or other entity could decide that they like the alternative energy future hedge that Tesla offers.

The story of Tesla is far from written. Although I suspect it will continue to suffer a wild ride.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by ERISA Stone » Thu May 23, 2019 11:52 am

MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am
ERISA Stone wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:32 am
itsgot8 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 9:07 am
Bill McNeal wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 11:02 pm
While Audi and other legacy makes are coming into the EV space, Tesla will maintain key advantages:

1) OTA software updates GM just released that its new electrical architecture will allow OTA. I'm sure other OEMs are not far behind either.
2) Lack of a dealer network
3) Supercharger network at key locations to enable long distance travel GM is working with EVgo and other charging networks to improve availability of charging to consumers.
4) Autopilot GM has Super Cruise on certain Cadillac models and will continue to proliferate it through additional models and brands. Volvo has Pilot Assist. Cruise Automation and Waymo are viewed as the two leading companies working on AV technology. Whatever slight advantage TSLA has with Autopilot, it's not going to last long. Not to mention the bad reputation it's gaining due to accidents resulting from owners using the Autopilot feature.
5) Brand equity

Musk needs to reduce the cash burn and realize self sustaining cash flow. Minimize need for raising cash. If they get shut out of capital markets due to loss of investor confidence then only a buyer will save them. I
Over half the list are not advantages since other OEMs already share those technologies or are aggressively pursuing them. IMO, the company will eventually be bought out, restructured and divested. The biggest asset is their battery technology. I can see the Tesla name surviving as the battery and electric motor technology leader. Kind of like how RAM trucks advertise being powered by Cummins diesel engines. Think of ABC vehicle brand, "powered by Tesla".
Are the GM chargers going to be as fast as Tesla's superchargers? It's not just the network, it's how fast Tesla's recharge. I've always thought Tesla would have a leg up until someone can compete with their charging network (and the speed of the network).
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.
Eventually......

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by matjen » Thu May 23, 2019 11:54 am

harikaried wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:29 am
Nate79 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:00 am
I think he convinced a lot of people that he has revolutionized the industry. But the reality is that the industry was already moving to electric sales
That's an interesting point because it definitely seems like the legacy auto industry is happy to continue at whatever pace it was moving towards electric vehicles. New 2019 electric vehicles from Audi and Jaguar are having trouble beating 2012 Tesla Model S range/cost/performance let alone the improvements Tesla has made over the last 7 years.

So for OP, if you're considering a Model Y, I suppose you can wait 7 years for a competitor's version that probably wouldn't match the safety or technology of a Tesla.
Please! You can buy a Kia Niro within weeks in 11 states. Made way better, better range, heated & ventilated seats, satellite radio, Spotify, CarPlay, Android Auto, better sounding radio, properly functioning blind spot warning system, etc. You also would get the full $7,500 federal credit so an absolutely loaded 44K model would come out to about the same price as a rare base Model 3 with a paint option.

Yes, Model 3 (and imaginary Model Y) does have some cool stuff (Proprietary chargers, snappier/larger maps for instance) as well but it doesn't have the above.

https://youtu.be/LIGLVY8Crvg?t=316

https://youtu.be/LIGLVY8Crvg?t=2046

And, of course, made way better and you won't have to wait months for basic repairs.

The thing about owning a Tesla no one talks about — nightmarish repair delays
Nearly six months later, he says his Model S still hasn't been repaired.

"When my car got in an accident, it was somewhere in the thirties to be worked on and the last time I had a conversation with someone there a few weeks ago, there was well over 130 Teslas there to get fixed," Hedges said.

"Now I think if you're number 130 [in line to get fixed], it's going to be well over a year to get your car back."

https://www.sfgate.com/cars/article/tes ... 796037.php
Last edited by matjen on Thu May 23, 2019 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by 4nursebee » Thu May 23, 2019 12:22 pm

I am really enjoying the book by Christensen The Innovator's Dilemma

It bears a lot pertaining to the Tesla discussions.
4nursebee

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by MichCPA » Thu May 23, 2019 12:36 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:38 am
MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.
Indeed.

My take on the issue is that unless batteries themselves are standardized and can be easily and quickly swapped at charging stations, as Musk has suggested, electric cars will never dominate the market. Without such a process, either the cost of the vehicle will be too high or the distance the vehicle can be driven will be too low.

Personally, I'm more favorable to compressed natural gas vehicles. All of the technology to make them work very well is already there, and the costs aren't prohibitive and would only go down with mass production. Manufacturers of CNG vehicles already include Ford, Toyota, Honda, Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Kia, Suzuki, Volvo, Fiat, and Volkswagen. The biggest hurdle right now is getting an adequate number of CNG pumping stations, but many gas stations already have natural gas supply lines, so it's mostly just a matter of them getting a CNG pump.
As an alternative, I would see a great deal of two car families having one electric and one gas car. The instances of both going on 200+ mile trips at the same time, but not together (if that makes sense) are low.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu May 23, 2019 12:40 pm

MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 12:36 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:38 am
MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.
Indeed.

My take on the issue is that unless batteries themselves are standardized and can be easily and quickly swapped at charging stations, as Musk has suggested, electric cars will never dominate the market. Without such a process, either the cost of the vehicle will be too high or the distance the vehicle can be driven will be too low.

Personally, I'm more favorable to compressed natural gas vehicles. All of the technology to make them work very well is already there, and the costs aren't prohibitive and would only go down with mass production. Manufacturers of CNG vehicles already include Ford, Toyota, Honda, Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Kia, Suzuki, Volvo, Fiat, and Volkswagen. The biggest hurdle right now is getting an adequate number of CNG pumping stations, but many gas stations already have natural gas supply lines, so it's mostly just a matter of them getting a CNG pump.
As an alternative, I would see a great deal of two car families having one electric and one gas car. The instances of both going on 200+ mile trips at the same time, but not together (if that makes sense) are low.
Yes, having a commuter electric vehicle and a CNG vehicle capable of long distance traveling would make sense. Some of us only have one vehicle though, and it doesn't make sense for it to be electric unless you'd rather rent something else for traveling.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Whakamole » Thu May 23, 2019 12:49 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 12:40 pm
MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 12:36 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:38 am
MichCPA wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 10:59 am
Eventually chargers are going to be standardized anyway. There is no way you are going to have separate recharging stations to different brands long term. The EU has already mandated this.
Indeed.

My take on the issue is that unless batteries themselves are standardized and can be easily and quickly swapped at charging stations, as Musk has suggested, electric cars will never dominate the market. Without such a process, either the cost of the vehicle will be too high or the distance the vehicle can be driven will be too low.

Personally, I'm more favorable to compressed natural gas vehicles. All of the technology to make them work very well is already there, and the costs aren't prohibitive and would only go down with mass production. Manufacturers of CNG vehicles already include Ford, Toyota, Honda, Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Kia, Suzuki, Volvo, Fiat, and Volkswagen. The biggest hurdle right now is getting an adequate number of CNG pumping stations, but many gas stations already have natural gas supply lines, so it's mostly just a matter of them getting a CNG pump.
As an alternative, I would see a great deal of two car families having one electric and one gas car. The instances of both going on 200+ mile trips at the same time, but not together (if that makes sense) are low.
Yes, having a commuter electric vehicle and a CNG vehicle capable of long distance traveling would make sense. Some of us only have one vehicle though, and it doesn't make sense for it to be electric unless you'd rather rent something else for traveling.
Renting isn't bad for travel. You can get a newer car (sometimes much newer if you are a Boglehead who drives cars for 10+ years), it's not that expensive if done through Costco Travel, you can get replacement cars if something happens, etc. I've rented cars before for long road trips and it was fine.

The big issue is convenience, I needed a ride to/from the car rental office ~5 miles away, then they didn't have what I had reserved and we had to pick out something else.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by TheOscarGuy » Thu May 23, 2019 12:54 pm

RJC wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:35 pm
TSLA is now at $192 (down 47%)? Is the company going to survive the next few years?

Tesla owners, how is the quality and customer service as of late?

I was actually thinking about splurging for a Model Y in the next few years. I'm not so sure now...
I think it is likely Tesla gets bought by some other car company.
I have noticed that people seem to have extreme views about Tesla -- either its the next best thing, or its going downhill fast.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by bgf » Thu May 23, 2019 1:11 pm

i hope not.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by cbr shadow » Thu May 23, 2019 1:14 pm

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 9:07 pm
RJC wrote:
Wed May 22, 2019 8:35 pm
TSLA is now at $192 (down 47%)? Is the company going to survive the next few years?
1. how would I or anyone know? Does anyone have a crystal ball?
2. If I said one way or the other, why would you believe what was written by an anonymous poster on the internet?
3. If I said with confidence what would happen, could I be wrong?
4. there have been plenty of companies that everyone thought would survive, but didn't and plenty of companies that everyone thought would not survive, but did.
Fair point but this is a discussion forum and the OP brought up the topic to discuss. He didn't say he's putting his life savings on Tesla based on the forum's opinions. He also asked "To Tesla owners, how is the quality and customer service as of late?" I think all of OP's questions are fair.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by ERISA Stone » Thu May 23, 2019 2:07 pm

matjen wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:54 am
harikaried wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:29 am
Nate79 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 8:00 am
I think he convinced a lot of people that he has revolutionized the industry. But the reality is that the industry was already moving to electric sales
That's an interesting point because it definitely seems like the legacy auto industry is happy to continue at whatever pace it was moving towards electric vehicles. New 2019 electric vehicles from Audi and Jaguar are having trouble beating 2012 Tesla Model S range/cost/performance let alone the improvements Tesla has made over the last 7 years.

So for OP, if you're considering a Model Y, I suppose you can wait 7 years for a competitor's version that probably wouldn't match the safety or technology of a Tesla.
Please! You can buy a Kia Niro within weeks in 11 states. Made way better, better range, heated & ventilated seats, satellite radio, Spotify, CarPlay, Android Auto, better sounding radio, properly functioning blind spot warning system, etc. You also would get the full $7,500 federal credit so an absolutely loaded 44K model would come out to about the same price as a rare base Model 3 with a paint option.

Yes, Model 3 (and imaginary Model Y) does have some cool stuff (Proprietary chargers, snappier/larger maps for instance) as well but it doesn't have the above.

https://youtu.be/LIGLVY8Crvg?t=316

https://youtu.be/LIGLVY8Crvg?t=2046

And, of course, made way better and you won't have to wait months for basic repairs.

The thing about owning a Tesla no one talks about — nightmarish repair delays
Nearly six months later, he says his Model S still hasn't been repaired.

"When my car got in an accident, it was somewhere in the thirties to be worked on and the last time I had a conversation with someone there a few weeks ago, there was well over 130 Teslas there to get fixed," Hedges said.

"Now I think if you're number 130 [in line to get fixed], it's going to be well over a year to get your car back."

https://www.sfgate.com/cars/article/tes ... 796037.php
A lot of people talk about repair timing issues. In fact, I think it's probably the main concern for people that own a Tesla.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu May 23, 2019 2:13 pm

Tycoon wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:31 am
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:18 am
Elon is not a genius,... Agreed

People are so gullible. Agreed
Wait. You are telling me that Mars isn’t a good place to live?

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by gtd98765 » Thu May 23, 2019 2:22 pm

An amazing amount of hate for Tesla and ad hominem attacks on Musk on this board. Wow. Is Tesla really worse than Edward Jones?

I hope Tesla succeeds since the US car industry needed shaking up to get it to move away from fossil fuels. I hope Tesla plays the role in the car industry that T-Mobile played in the cell service industry; remember when it was going to go bankrupt if the government did not let it merge with AT&T?

Whether you like Tesla cars or the company, or electric cars or not, it is just irrational to say it has accomplished nothing. How many other companies were created from scratch in the US in the last 20 years that have built and put in service half a million cars?

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu May 23, 2019 2:40 pm

gtd98765 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:22 pm
I hope Tesla succeeds since the US car industry needed shaking up to get it to move away from fossil fuels.
Ford, Toyota, GM, Honda, etc. don't really care if their cars are powered by petroleum byproducts, electricity, or anything else. They're interested in turning a profit, which Tesla has yet to demonstrate that they can reliably do. What the company has managed to do is take advantage of many subsidies and a lot of venture capital to stay afloat.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu May 23, 2019 2:45 pm

You can buy a Tesla and supercharge......or buy an Audi eTron and charge.....faster.

Go to (Ironically) 4:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aP7of0p-GGU
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by harikaried » Thu May 23, 2019 2:47 pm

RJC wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:17 am
Any idea why Tesla is at the bottom of the Consumer Reports list of reliable cars? Maybe electrical glitches then?
If you look at the details of the Consumer Reports reliability report, it's based on owners reporting issues such as trim and paint issues. Looks like the percentage of reported issues ignores differences between small defects vs engine failures.

Seems like there's a pattern of Consumer Reports headlines not matching up with article content where the authors need to clarify:
https://twitter.com/CRcarsJake/status/1 ... 4345357312
Yes!!!! Thank you for clarifying. It appears than many others have summarized our findings and did not read/comprehend what the article was about. It was about the latest options.
Earlier this week, there's a lot of news about how Consumer Reports says Tesla's Autopilot is a safety concern, but from the above tweet, the director of auto testing is trying to clarify that their report was only regarding the most recently released "no confirmation navigation on autopillot" beta feature.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by bhsince87 » Thu May 23, 2019 2:52 pm

protagonist wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 7:53 am
If you already bought a Tesla 3, don't sell it. Save it for your children. Consider it a $35000 long term speculative investment.
If you didn't and have gambling money, and the company crashes, consider buying a used Tesla S within a few years of when the company crashes for a quarter of its original sale price.
In 20 years I would guess there is a good chance it will be a precious antique, like a de Lorean.
There were only about 9,000 Deloreans ever made. So far Tesla is at about 400,000. Scarcity is mostly what drives value.

It's entirely possible Tesla cars will instead follow the PC (Personal computer ) route.

They were game changing ta the time, but now even the new ones are on the verge of becoming obsolete.

And what will happen if/when Tesla decides they're not going to support the old versions with new software, or parts? They can turn them into bricks if they want too.
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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Thu May 23, 2019 2:58 pm

gtd98765 wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 2:22 pm
An amazing amount of hate for Tesla and ad hominem attacks on Musk on this board. Wow. Is Tesla really than Edward Jones?

I hope Tesla succeeds since the US car industry needed shaking up to get it to move away from fossil fuels. I hope Tesla plays the role in the car industry that T-Mobile played in the cell service industry; remember when it was going to go bankrupt if the government did not let it merge with AT&T?

Whether you like Tesla cars or the company, or electric cars or not, it is just irrational to say it has accomplished nothing. How many other companies were created from scratch in the US in the last 20 years that have built and put in service half a million cars?
Yeegh.

The original question was about Tesla's stock price. There's no reason to accuse posters of hating something. Come on now.

Yes, barring a severe societal shock, it looks, today, as if more and more transportation will become electrically-powered, thereby concentrating energy generation into more-efficient fixed plants rather than distributing it among millions of less-efficient mobile plants, and yes we have the technology today to increase the efficiency of transportation of electricity. I share your hope that the logistics industry will embrace the transition to electric power.

Whether Tesla stock will end up having been a profitable buy today is a completely different question.

PJW
Last edited by Phineas J. Whoopee on Thu May 23, 2019 3:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by harikaried » Thu May 23, 2019 3:01 pm

matjen wrote:
Thu May 23, 2019 11:54 am
Please! You can buy a Kia Niro within weeks in 11 states.
I'm not really sure what you're trying to compare for someone looking for an electric vehicle?
The Niro Plug-In Hybrid delivers versatility right down to its power source. With the push of a button you can go All-Electric using a high-density, lithium-ion polymer battery with an estimated EPA rated All-Electric Range (AER) of 0-26 miles.
26 miles of electric range for the Niro vs base Model 3 with 240 miles available in 50 states with 2 week delivery estimate.

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Re: Is Tesla Going To Survive?

Post by LadyGeek » Thu May 23, 2019 3:18 pm

I removed a few off-topic posts. This thread has run its course and is locked (discussion not productive, somewhat contentious). See: Personal Consumer Issues
General comments or complaints about these topics will be locked or removed.

Note that this subforum has a much lower threshold for locking or removing posts than the financial and investing subforums. In general, controversial, offensive, pointless, divisive or mean-spirited posts or topics may be locked, edited or deleted (with or without notice) at the discretion of the moderating staff even if they do not otherwise violate forum policies.
This thread is now in the Personal Consumer Issues forum (car). (The thread would also have been locked in the personal finance forum, where it was moved from.)

The counterpoint thread: Why it doesn't matter if Tesla survives is also locked.
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