256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

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prairieman
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256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by prairieman » Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm

As somebody who remembers paying a lot of money to upgrade his computer from 128K to 1 MB of internal memory, I have more-than-once thought that we must be at the limit by now. But, in the market for a new cell phone, my mind was blown yet again, by the option of buying an absurd 256 GB phone for not-much-more than a 64 GB phone. The upgrade in today’s dollars was much less than the upgrade I paid for in yesteryear’s dollars.
OK, this nonsense (of more value for less money) must end somewhere. But where?
I ask this to those more technically inclined: how much further can we go?
But I also think there is a financial aspect since I believe the last ten year run-up in stock prices may be at least as important to this as it is in any government policies that have evolved over the same time period.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by RadAudit » Fri May 10, 2019 6:13 pm

prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
how much further can we go?
I was hoping we could get enough capacity to calculate the next round trip to the moon - including a lunar landing and take-off.
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The Wizard
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by The Wizard » Fri May 10, 2019 6:14 pm

Is there a financial constraint here?
How much storage does your present smartphone have?
And how much are you using?
We need all the parameters to help...
Attempted new signature...

The Wizard
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by The Wizard » Fri May 10, 2019 6:15 pm

RadAudit wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:13 pm
prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
how much further can we go?
I was hoping we could get enough capacity to calculate the next round trip to the moon - including a lunar landing and take-off.
That's more CPU capacity and maybe RAM.
Not so much storage memory...
Attempted new signature...

randomguy
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by randomguy » Fri May 10, 2019 6:24 pm

prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
As somebody who remembers paying a lot of money to upgrade his computer from 128K to 1 MB of internal memory, I have more-than-once thought that we must be at the limit by now. But, in the market for a new cell phone, my mind was blown yet again, by the option of buying an absurd 256 GB phone for not-much-more than a 64 GB phone. The upgrade in today’s dollars was much less than the upgrade I paid for in yesteryear’s dollars.
OK, this nonsense (of more value for less money) must end somewhere. But where?
I ask this to those more technically inclined: how much further can we go?
But I also think there is a financial aspect since I believe the last ten year run-up in stock prices may be at least as important to this as it is in any government policies that have evolved over the same time period.
Your paying 150 bucks for 50 bucks worth of memory. You are being price gouged:) Some people need the space. In the end you either need the space (lots of music, videos,...) or you don't. I would expect most people don't. As far as space, I am pretty sure they have hit some limits but so far they have come up with workaround to keep upping the capacity.

At some point cheapness will probably start cannibalizing the upscale market. 400 dollars phones these days are really solid. Should you really be spending 800 every 2 years for marginal improvements? We are rapidly approaching the PC point where a decent machine from 5 years ago is still good enough for most users today while in the 80s/90s, your 5 year old machine would be like 5x slower (think 386->486->Pentium transitions). Of course most makers try to hide the price by charging you by the month. It is one thing to write a 20/month check. It is another to do a 800 dollar one.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by hicabob » Fri May 10, 2019 6:28 pm

Since it's easier and faster to write software without memory space constraints I would expect very much further. Every weekly update seems to add gbytes to apps.

Dottie57
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by Dottie57 » Fri May 10, 2019 6:28 pm

With 256gb of storage one could take lots of entertainment on the road which works without internet. Very nice feature.

New device - don’t buy new for about 4 years and now maybe more.

KandT
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by KandT » Fri May 10, 2019 6:56 pm

prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
As somebody who remembers paying a lot of money to upgrade his computer from 128K to 1 MB of internal memory, I have more-than-once thought that we must be at the limit by now. But, in the market for a new cell phone, my mind was blown yet again, by the option of buying an absurd 256 GB phone for not-much-more than a 64 GB phone. The upgrade in today’s dollars was much less than the upgrade I paid for in yesteryear’s dollars.
OK, this nonsense (of more value for less money) must end somewhere. But where?
I ask this to those more technically inclined: how much further can we go?
But I also think there is a financial aspect since I believe the last ten year run-up in stock prices may be at least as important to this as it is in any government policies that have evolved over the same time period.
I agree with your thoughts. Can it get better forever? There must be a stopping point.

So I remember when an extra 4MB was a big deal. 256GB is an improvement by a factor of 64,000 over 4MB. Now that 4MB went into a computer that was maybe 16" by 16" or so. So that's a huge improvement. Also the energy required to run it improved drastically. If you assume this rate of improvement and a better ability to interact with the computers than our fingers then you can easily envision being able to upload your consciousness. Does that mean your conscious being could live forever in some sort of computer driven simulation? Maybe, as Elon Musk would say, we are very possibly in a simulation now. Maybe we are the kickstarters to or the "boot drive" to an artificial intelligence form of life. Once that become real is it still "artificial". It could be as live as any other being and able to make decisions independent of outside input.

Just some food for thought. :shock:

mattshwink
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by mattshwink » Fri May 10, 2019 7:06 pm

Samsung has a gumstick (NVMe) drive that is 3.84TB (or roughly 11 x 256GB). I know someone who works on Los Alamos and they have mult-Petabyte systems (a Petabyte is 1,024 Terabytes or 1,048,576 GB). Though those systems aren't so small.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by willthrill81 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:08 pm

On top of phones' storage, those capable of supporting an SD card (probably not Apple) can have as much as an additional terabyte of storage.
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by oldcomputerguy » Fri May 10, 2019 7:15 pm

RadAudit wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:13 pm
prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
how much further can we go?
I was hoping we could get enough capacity to calculate the next round trip to the moon - including a lunar landing and take-off.
The computer that guided Apollo spacecraft had 2k of core memory and 24k of ROM.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by willthrill81 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:17 pm

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:15 pm
RadAudit wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:13 pm
prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
how much further can we go?
I was hoping we could get enough capacity to calculate the next round trip to the moon - including a lunar landing and take-off.
The computer that guided Apollo spacecraft had 2k of core memory and 24k of ROM.
And in today's dollars, it cost $2 million. :shock:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by Jags4186 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:34 pm

If you download lots of videos (or shoot lots of videos) then you may need 256gb.

My 64gb iPhone XR has 29gb free. I have probably 3 or 4 dozen apps, tons of podcasts downloaded, and maybe 1000 or so pictures. I pretty much have stopped taking pictures since everywhere you go everyone is taking pictures and posting them on Facebook/Instagram. No need for me to be the cameraman anymore.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by abuss368 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:55 pm

Technology is cheaper and more efficient today than ever before.

We just realized with using Apple's iCloud for storing our documents and pictures, we have no need for another external back up drive any longer.
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by 123 » Fri May 10, 2019 7:59 pm

A member of our household with an Iphone X has more memory in that phone than her MacAir she got 5 years ago. Instead of backing up her phone to her computer she can back her computer up to her phone.
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by KandT » Fri May 10, 2019 8:03 pm

Do we as a species continue to get sucked into these devices?? Already we spend hours a day on them.

When do they control us instead of being our tools??

When is the picture craze going to wear out? Soon I hope!

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by stoptothink » Fri May 10, 2019 8:29 pm

KandT wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:03 pm
Do we as a species continue to get sucked into these devices?? Already we spend hours a day on them.

When do they control us instead of being our tools??

When is the picture craze going to wear out? Soon I hope!
For a lot of people, this has already happened. Surveys suggest the average US adult spends more than 3hrs/day looking at their smartphone. Based on my experience, I think that is on the low side.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by Nate79 » Fri May 10, 2019 8:31 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:29 pm
KandT wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 8:03 pm
Do we as a species continue to get sucked into these devices?? Already we spend hours a day on them.

When do they control us instead of being our tools??

When is the picture craze going to wear out? Soon I hope!
For a lot of people, this has already happened. Surveys suggest the average US adult spends more than 3hrs/day looking at their smartphone. Based on my experience, I think that is on the low side.
Of that 3hr how much is while driving? :annoyed

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by jbranx » Fri May 10, 2019 8:39 pm

{Topic is now in Personal Consumer Issues}

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by Dialectical Investor » Fri May 10, 2019 9:20 pm

prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm

OK, this nonsense (of more value for less money) must end somewhere. But where?
I ask this to those more technically inclined: how much further can we go?
Even certain routine questions posed by a common user such as a business executive are extremely expensive to solve, computationally speaking (very demanding of computer resources). It may seem like we're reaching the end, but really, we're just getting started.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by Turbo29 » Fri May 10, 2019 11:50 pm

See how far we've come in 50yr or so. 8 bytes took up more space then than 8 gigabytes does now.


Image

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by politely » Sat May 11, 2019 12:37 am

I've used up most of the 256gb on my Iphone, with about 20gb free (need to keep some capacity to allow for updates). Most of the memory is used for music. Already have to pick and choose what will be synced to the phone.

I'd like to get to a point where my phone can hold all the info on my computer, including pictures, movies, documents, etc. I'd like to carry all my data with me, if possible, and be able to add to it whenever I wanted without worrying about running out of space. Is it necessary? Not at all, but it'd be nice.

I remember the days of the TRS-80 and the original IBM PC, when 16kb increments seemed spectacular, and 5MB (or even 20MB) hard drives were beyond the pale (not to mention the massive speed increases since then). More recently, I bought a NAS, which at the time of purchase seemed to have a bottomless 8TB (4 drives), but it's now at capacity, and last year, I bought a couple drives that each hold 12TB, and started doing backups of the NAS onto a single drive with room left over.

I hope the progress never stops.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by UKFred » Sat May 11, 2019 3:25 am

An IBM 5MB hard drive in 1956...

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by sunny_socal » Sat May 11, 2019 6:08 am

We've already hit the end of Moore's law. 7nm is the latest silicon geometry and 5nm will be next followed by 2nm, but those steps will be much longer and more expensive to reach.

I believe software optimization will be the next step to increase perceived performance. Think of how poorly Windows runs although the resources of a modern computer are huge. (Run linux on the same computer and you'll see what I mean.)

But OP, I'd expect 1TB flash storage on phones to be common in a couple years. That's a lot unless you're shooting 4k video.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by lazydavid » Sat May 11, 2019 6:48 am

Turbo29 wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 11:50 pm
See how far we've come in 50yr or so. 8 bytes took up more space then than 8 gigabytes does now.[/img]
It was closer to 40 years, since I don't know where you'd find a MicroSD card that small today. :) I have had a handful of 256GB ones for at least 4 years now, and 1TB are readily available.

Back OT, I don't need a ton of storage on my phone. Last 3 have had 64GB built in, plus one of the aforementioned 256GB SD Cards (got several of them free). My current device has about 50GB on it total, between the internal and expansion. Most of that is audiobooks. Music is typically streamed. I don't have a desire to watch longform content on a 6" phone, when I can do so on an 11" tablet with nearly six times the screen real estate (different aspect ratios, is why this math doesn't appear to work). So that tablet has half a terabyte.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by bob60014 » Sat May 11, 2019 8:01 am

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 7:15 pm
RadAudit wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:13 pm
prairieman wrote:
Fri May 10, 2019 6:03 pm
how much further can we go?
I was hoping we could get enough capacity to calculate the next round trip to the moon - including a lunar landing and take-off.
The computer that guided Apollo spacecraft had 2k of core memory and 24k of ROM.
I recall that Armstrong was getting warnings during the last few minutes of the lunar landing at the go-no go phase. Turns out it was computer overload but they gave him the go a head to land. If only they had a bit ....make that byte or two more! :)

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by sambb » Sat May 11, 2019 8:33 am

instead of worrying about historical norms, it may be valuable to look at "ROI". If you need storage for videos, apps, pictures, documents, then you might need the data. There are several reasons to need that sort of storage. It depends on content consumption and convenience, whether in executive business or at home. I suppose if one is looking for just a phone, then it isnt necessary. An iphone has an amazing ability to carry years of executive level data for on-the-fly reference in important and sometimes mission critical situations. There can be an ROI for even more storage. Same goes for a casual user who wishes to carry a full array of video and photos of their lives at all times. For those who have photo albums, or store things on a PC for consumption, then it might be different.

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by bottlecap » Sat May 11, 2019 8:57 am

Buying an iPhone is nonsense. You might as well go all out!

JT

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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by StevieG72 » Sat May 11, 2019 9:09 am

Electronics are the exception to the norm, you get more technology for less money with time.

I have reached enough with 32g on an Iphone 6s. My goal is to get as much mileage out of a phone that is paid for vs. trying to get the latest and greatest technology each year.

I took Apple up on the free battery replacement last year.

Funny thing with Iphones is the software is almost identical between models, major differences are hardware.

Off topic, those wireless ear-pods are ridiculous. I laugh a little to myself when I see someone wearing them.
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Re: 256 Gbytes for IPhone! How much further?

Post by LadyGeek » Sat May 11, 2019 9:16 am

This thread has run its course and is locked (not personal nor actionable). General comment threads are off topic in the forums with "Personal" in the title. See: A reminder that non-investing general comment threads are OT
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