Tesla Model Y

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Vihoo
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Vihoo »

harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:17 pm I finally got to drive a model 3 last week for the first time. First impression, the drive is fine. Great acceleration, very smooth. The large display didn't faze or distract me by much as I'm quite a techie. Two issues that were pretty big IMO. The seat sits way too high for my comfort. I'm above avg in height (6'2") and my head was very close to the ceiling and the rear view mirror was partially blocking my view. Not deal breaker but not impressed. The real deal breaker was the auto pilot. My main motivator to spend extra would be for this feature. Upon testing it on the freeway, I found it corrected itself too aggressively when it was locked in on the vehicle in front. As a driver, I know when to accelerate and let the car glide for a smooth ride. The Tesla lidar would accelerate and apply brakes to decelerate to the point where I felt extremely nauseous. I'm not sure if this is something you can get used to. I had the ride set to 'chill' mode already. I was tempted to put an order for a model Y but now I need to do a test drive before contemplating on buying it.
Didn’t set the Autopilot distance to the correct setting.
Driver error.
htj
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by htj »

harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:39 pm
Starfish wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm
harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:17 pm The Tesla lidar would accelerate and apply brakes to decelerate to the point where I felt extremely nauseous. I'm not sure if this is something you can get used to. I had the ride set to 'chill' mode already. I was tempted to put an order for a model Y but now I need to do a test drive before contemplating on buying it.
There is, famously, no lidar on Tesla. And even if there was, I does not accelerate anything.
I stand corrected. Regardless, my disappointment with the autopilot doesn't change.
There's some settings that will adjust how the adaptive cruise behaves. Poke through the user interface and try out the different following distances to see if that helps.
FoolStreet
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by FoolStreet »

harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:17 pm I finally got to drive a model 3 last week for the first time. First impression, the drive is fine. Great acceleration, very smooth. The large display didn't faze or distract me by much as I'm quite a techie. Two issues that were pretty big IMO. The seat sits way too high for my comfort. I'm above avg in height (6'2") and my head was very close to the ceiling and the rear view mirror was partially blocking my view. Not deal breaker but not impressed. The real deal breaker was the auto pilot. My main motivator to spend extra would be for this feature. Upon testing it on the freeway, I found it corrected itself too aggressively when it was locked in on the vehicle in front. As a driver, I know when to accelerate and let the car glide for a smooth ride. The Tesla lidar would accelerate and apply brakes to decelerate to the point where I felt extremely nauseous. I'm not sure if this is something you can get used to. I had the ride set to 'chill' mode already. I was tempted to put an order for a model Y but now I need to do a test drive before contemplating on buying it.
hmm... I'll add some thoughts from someone who has used the autopilot feature for about a year...

Overall, I've had zero issue with start-stop styles of driving being too aggressive or not. Maybe its reacting to bad drivers ahead of you cutting you off, but either way it sounds like it was jarring for you the first time.

I have noticed that the autopilot will have a different nuance between software releases every 3-4 months. Earlier, it was really slow and cautious to make lane changes. Now, it's much more deliberate. When there is a little wobble in the road, I'll notice a minor wobble once left and once right as it recenters. I've noticed this now, but fully expect this to smooth out on the next release because it wasn't there before. I'm on HW2.5, so its probably just optimised now for the HW3 chip.

The point I am trying to make is not about whether Autopilot is good or bad *right now* but that it does evolve and improve. It does *not* use LIDAR. It uses a combination of multiple inputs realtime: radar, cameras, tracking lanes, tracking cars in front of it, etc. And it now runs on HW3 which is a faster machine learning processor than the one I have. Over time, it will start incorporating even more of the cameras and inputs. It constantly gets tweaked and a new release about every 3-4 months, over the air. I don't know any other car company that provides over the air software improvements and added features.

I have driven in other systems and this one is way better.

I can't comment on your seating position. I'm not that tall. But I love the autopilot. And when I don't, I just drive manually. It is a life saver for traffic, and it really helps give me a 2nd set of eyes to make sure I don't cut people off, which is a safety feature I appreciate.
EHEngineer
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by EHEngineer »

Vihoo wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2020 6:39 am
harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:17 pm I finally got to drive a model 3 last week for the first time. First impression, the drive is fine. Great acceleration, very smooth. The large display didn't faze or distract me by much as I'm quite a techie. Two issues that were pretty big IMO. The seat sits way too high for my comfort. I'm above avg in height (6'2") and my head was very close to the ceiling and the rear view mirror was partially blocking my view. Not deal breaker but not impressed. The real deal breaker was the auto pilot. My main motivator to spend extra would be for this feature. Upon testing it on the freeway, I found it corrected itself too aggressively when it was locked in on the vehicle in front. As a driver, I know when to accelerate and let the car glide for a smooth ride. The Tesla lidar would accelerate and apply brakes to decelerate to the point where I felt extremely nauseous. I'm not sure if this is something you can get used to. I had the ride set to 'chill' mode already. I was tempted to put an order for a model Y but now I need to do a test drive before contemplating on buying it.
Didn’t set the Autopilot distance to the correct setting.
Driver error.
I have found the distance doesn't make much difference. I can understand what harrychan is describing. That said, AP never made me "nauseous," but it's not as smooth as I am.

harrychan - You might consider renting one for several days (Turo). AP grows on you. Also remember that AP is a work in progress. I expect it will continue to improve.
Or, you can ... decline to let me, a stranger on the Internet, egg you on to an exercise in time-wasting, and you could say "I'm probably OK and I don't care about it that much." -Nisiprius
harikaried
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by harikaried »

Looks like deliveries will start in March and range has increased from 280 miles to 315 miles. No more 18" wheels and instead 19" included. Seven seat interior option isn't even selectable anymore and still shows "2021." Also AWD is the only option available to order for now.
fareastwarriors
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by fareastwarriors »

harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:39 pm
Starfish wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm
harrychan wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:17 pm The Tesla lidar would accelerate and apply brakes to decelerate to the point where I felt extremely nauseous. I'm not sure if this is something you can get used to. I had the ride set to 'chill' mode already. I was tempted to put an order for a model Y but now I need to do a test drive before contemplating on buying it.
There is, famously, no lidar on Tesla. And even if there was, I does not accelerate anything.
I stand corrected. Regardless, my disappointment with the autopilot doesn't change.
I agree with your points regarding autopilot being a bit "rough." Perhaps you should continue to wait until a new generation gets better first.

As for me, the 3 is still good enough for me. Although I have a reservation for the Y, I'm still deciding if I should get it or not.
FoolStreet
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by FoolStreet »

harikaried wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:05 pm Looks like deliveries will start in March and range has increased from 280 miles to 315 miles. No more 18" wheels and instead 19" included. Seven seat interior option isn't even selectable anymore and still shows "2021." Also AWD is the only option available to order for now.
So exciting!! I passed one on the highway last week and was gawking ;-)
RJC
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by RJC »

Love the new black 20" wheels! Can't wait to upgrade in a couple of years.
RetiredInTheWest
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by RetiredInTheWest »

I really like what I heard today. I'm having trouble keeping myself from ordering a Model Y AWD.
manatee2005
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by manatee2005 »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:26 pm I really like what I heard today. I'm having trouble keeping myself from ordering a Model Y AWD.
I'm waiting for cyber truck.
WhyNotKnow
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by WhyNotKnow »

manatee2005 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:54 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:26 pm I really like what I heard today. I'm having trouble keeping myself from ordering a Model Y AWD.
I'm waiting for cyber truck.

Why not both?
:D
manatee2005
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by manatee2005 »

WhyNotKnow wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:21 am
manatee2005 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:54 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:26 pm I really like what I heard today. I'm having trouble keeping myself from ordering a Model Y AWD.
I'm waiting for cyber truck.

Why not both?
:D

I'd like to retire someday :-) Plus, just got a 2019 Mazda CX-5. It was $27k out the door.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by TomatoTomahto »

WhyNotKnow wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:21 am
manatee2005 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:54 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 8:26 pm I really like what I heard today. I'm having trouble keeping myself from ordering a Model Y AWD.
I'm waiting for cyber truck.
Why not both?
:D
It’s a thought. The Y size is perfect, the CyberTruck utility should be phenomenal. I have room and power for 3 EVs, but . . .

My X still has years and miles to go.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.
hightower
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by hightower »

I placed an order today for the Model Y. It’s my birthday:) Pretty excited. I’ve been driving a BMW i3 for a few years now and am beyond impressed with that car so the Tesla will have a lot to live up to. But this car is a necessary replacement for our Honda Fit which is too small for us now (we have a toddler in a rear facing car seat that destroys all the leg room up front and we’re planning on a second child soon). The Y seems like it will check all of our boxes. We considered waiting for the upcoming BMW iX3 but what made me choose Tesla was access to their charging network. Plus I really enjoyed the test ride in a Model 3.

Anyway, since this is a financial forum, my plan for paying for it is: First trade in our Fit which is probably worth around 11k. Second, since I have no idea how long we have to wait for the Model Y to arrive, we will be saving as much cash as possible in the mean time. I predict it will be at least 6-8 months. 2k a month from my wife’s job (after 401k contribution) will yield 12-16k plus I’ll at least match that from my checks, so we’re probably looking at 24k-32k additional. Any remaining balance we will finance with Tesla and pay it off within a few months. I have enough cash on hand right now to just buy it outright but I am holding on to that for investing when the coronavirus sinks the market this week (my prediction)

Oh and when the day comes I need to replace my i3, I’m definitely getting a Cybertruck!!
FoolStreet
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by FoolStreet »

hightower wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:16 am I placed an order today for the Model Y. It’s my birthday:) Pretty excited. I’ve been driving a BMW i3 for a few years now and am beyond impressed with that car so the Tesla will have a lot to live up to. But this car is a necessary replacement for our Honda Fit which is too small for us now (we have a toddler in a rear facing car seat that destroys all the leg room up front and we’re planning on a second child soon). The Y seems like it will check all of our boxes. We considered waiting for the upcoming BMW iX3 but what made me choose Tesla was access to their charging network. Plus I really enjoyed the test ride in a Model 3.

Anyway, since this is a financial forum, my plan for paying for it is: First trade in our Fit which is probably worth around 11k. Second, since I have no idea how long we have to wait for the Model Y to arrive, we will be saving as much cash as possible in the mean time. I predict it will be at least 6-8 months. 2k a month from my wife’s job (after 401k contribution) will yield 12-16k plus I’ll at least match that from my checks, so we’re probably looking at 24k-32k additional. Any remaining balance we will finance with Tesla and pay it off within a few months. I have enough cash on hand right now to just buy it outright but I am holding on to that for investing when the coronavirus sinks the market this week (my prediction)

Oh and when the day comes I need to replace my i3, I’m definitely getting a Cybertruck!!
Congrats! I love my 3 so assume you will love the Y. And aHappy Birthday!

Production dates will be a little touch and go as people scramble to buy the ones coming off the production line, so I suggest that you don’t sell your old car private party until after you pick up the Y.

For me, they drove my 3 to my house and the driver drove my trade in Prius away. Financing took a bit of orchestration since I used a 3rd party credit union.

Bogleheads do not recommend timing the market by the way :D
harikaried
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by harikaried »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:06 pmI want AWD, long range, loaded car, but Performance is not a must-have.
Looks like with the range update last month, both AWD and Performance are now rated for 315 miles. If you want the Model Y sooner as in less than a month from now, it looks like people who ordered Performance (with 19" wheels -- not necessarily with $0-additional "Performance Upgrade" that has the 21" wheels and 280 mile range) are getting emails to confirm delivery dates in March.

Our order will need to wait as we've ordered the third row option, but hopefully Tesla pushes up those delivery dates too.
Texanbybirth
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Texanbybirth »

I'm very interested in the model Y. I currently drive a Yaris iA. We purchased it in Sept 2017. It has always been a tight squeeze for me, and now even for our 3 little kids, but it was a budget decision for us since this is merely a point A to B commuter vehicle. I can see a model Y in my future in a few years.
“The strong cannot be brave. Only the weak can be brave; and yet again, in practice, only those who can be brave can be trusted, in time of doubt, to be strong.“ - GK Chesterton
Puretaxableindexer
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Puretaxableindexer »

Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
niceguy7376
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by niceguy7376 »

Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:29 am Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
I am interested in the alternate options - Could you please list what is available this year that is similar to Model 3 or Y?
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:29 am Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
I sort of agree, but there’s a reason for it. I truly wish there were competitive vehicles, especially from Volvo, Porsche, and Mercedes. I would love a smaller crossover from Volvo, but the only real contender is the Model Y.

Shame on the other manufacturers who thought that bad-mouthing Tesla would be sufficient. They wasted years when they could have been catching up to Tesla. They are still years behind, and it looks like Tesla is pulling even further ahead.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.
emoore
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by emoore »

TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:38 am
Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:29 am Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
I sort of agree, but there’s a reason for it. I truly wish there were competitive vehicles, especially from Volvo, Porsche, and Mercedes. I would love a smaller crossover from Volvo, but the only real contender is the Model Y.

Shame on the other manufacturers who thought that bad-mouthing Tesla would be sufficient. They wasted years when they could have been catching up to Tesla. They are still years behind, and it looks like Tesla is pulling even further ahead.
Exactly. They are all scrambling to catch up now. There should be a small SUV from VW announced soon and the Ford Mach e looks tempting too.
tapotti
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by tapotti »

The Kia Niro EV gets surprisingly little press. It's only available in 12 states or so, but it's a great vehicle. Base model price is $38,500 MSRP and $44,000 for the premium trim. I test drove it and thought it was a great vehicle. Still qualifies for a full tax rebate. It's not a sporty drive, but it is totally practical for a typical family. Great warranty.

That being said, I have a LR AWD Model Y on reservation. The technology and charging infrastructure of Tesla is hard to beat.
dsmclone
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by dsmclone »

As a tech as well as a car guy, the Tesla really appeals to me. There are a few things that I'm thinking abut when it comes to Tesla vs. another vehicle.

#1 The price. I hate spending $50k on any car.
#2 If I do spend a lot on a car, I tend to buy a $30k used model that was once a $70k new car.
#3 If I spend $50k on a Tesla am I really paying $20k premium for the tech and the battery vs. luxury.
#4 I love what Tesla is doing with self driving. I love how Tesla constantly updates their software. If I bought one, I feel like I'd have to get the $7k self driving option.
#5 I'm sure I would love the acceleration that the Tesla provides
#6 I realize that the it's unlikely that I can cost/justify the fuel savings
#7 I've owned a lot of sports cars, sedans, etc. but as I get older I am enjoying my wife's small SUV more and more as a daily driver compared to my 2 door BMW. With this said, I'd probably choose the Model Y, which would add even more to the price.
#8 I'm not sure of the fit/finish on Tesla, especially the model Y, since it's so new.
#9 Battery anxiety. 99% of the time this wouldn't be an issue but I'm one of those people that cannot stand my phone being less than 50% charged or my gas tank having less than 1/4 tank.

I've come to the conclusion that I should just give it more time. This is especially true since I drive a reliable BMW(2 series) with 38k miles on the clock.
TheGreyingDuke
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by TheGreyingDuke »

I am all in on the Teslas but can't convince myself to buy one.

I am 4 hours from the nearest service station and even with the road service, it seems most people have some reason to visit a service station. I am also concerned about the restricted availability of parts, especially body parts. Having no 3rd party parts makes me a forever captive of Tesla. And Tesla doesn't seem to do a good job at getting body parts out, there are many stories of waiting months for parts.

And I don't fully accept the notion that they are free of maintenance issues. Sure anything associated withe the ICE is absent but it has been three years since I had any of those components go on my 12-year-old, 170k miles VW. Mostly dealing with shocks, springs, CV joints.

These reservations would all go away if I was within an hour or so of a service center.
"Every time I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race." H.G. Wells
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by TomatoTomahto »

tapotti wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:53 am The Kia Niro EV gets surprisingly little press. It's only available in 12 states or so, but it's a great vehicle. Base model price is $38,500 MSRP and $44,000 for the premium trim. I test drove it and thought it was a great vehicle. Still qualifies for a full tax rebate. It's not a sporty drive, but it is totally practical for a typical family. Great warranty.

That being said, I have a LR AWD Model Y on reservation. The technology and charging infrastructure of Tesla is hard to beat.
My sister bought a Kia and loves it. She charges 100% at home and work, so she doesn’t miss the superior charging infrastructure of Tesla.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.
anoop
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by anoop »

emoore wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:23 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:38 am
Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:29 am Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
I sort of agree, but there’s a reason for it. I truly wish there were competitive vehicles, especially from Volvo, Porsche, and Mercedes. I would love a smaller crossover from Volvo, but the only real contender is the Model Y.

Shame on the other manufacturers who thought that bad-mouthing Tesla would be sufficient. They wasted years when they could have been catching up to Tesla. They are still years behind, and it looks like Tesla is pulling even further ahead.
Exactly. They are all scrambling to catch up now. There should be a small SUV from VW announced soon and the Ford Mach e looks tempting too.
They are not scrambling even though it may appear so. Most of these guys don’t want to be losing money and EV sales are still around 2% of the market. Tesla is still losing a lot of money but their business model is different from traditional automakers.
Afty
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Afty »

dsmclone wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:54 am As a tech as well as a car guy, the Tesla really appeals to me. There are a few things that I'm thinking abut when it comes to Tesla vs. another vehicle.

#1 The price. I hate spending $50k on any car.
#2 If I do spend a lot on a car, I tend to buy a $30k used model that was once a $70k new car.
#3 If I spend $50k on a Tesla am I really paying $20k premium for the tech and the battery vs. luxury.
#4 I love what Tesla is doing with self driving. I love how Tesla constantly updates their software. If I bought one, I feel like I'd have to get the $7k self driving option.
#5 I'm sure I would love the acceleration that the Tesla provides
#6 I realize that the it's unlikely that I can cost/justify the fuel savings
#7 I've owned a lot of sports cars, sedans, etc. but as I get older I am enjoying my wife's small SUV more and more as a daily driver compared to my 2 door BMW. With this said, I'd probably choose the Model Y, which would add even more to the price.
#8 I'm not sure of the fit/finish on Tesla, especially the model Y, since it's so new.
#9 Battery anxiety. 99% of the time this wouldn't be an issue but I'm one of those people that cannot stand my phone being less than 50% charged or my gas tank having less than 1/4 tank.

I've come to the conclusion that I should just give it more time. This is especially true since I drive a reliable BMW(2 series) with 38k miles on the clock.
I'm similar to you, both a car enthusiast and tech guy. I bought a Model 3 last year and have been really happy with it. The car is very fast and fun to drive. It's more comparable to a BMW or Audi than a Kia. Sorry Kia fans, but we our other car is a Kia Sorento and there's no comparison.

I recommend not buying the full self driving option -- it doesn't do much currently, certainly not $7k worth, and there's a lot of risk in assuming it will do something in the future. You can always add it later if Tesla does manage to get it to work.

The fuel savings are nice but I agree it is not enough to justify the cost of the car if you are not normally buying $50k cars (I wasn't either). That said, the resale value so far has been excellent (ranked #1 for 2019 models -- only 5% depreciation in a year!). So maybe the actual cost of ownership won't be too bad if the resale value holds up.

I would recommend not buying the first Model Y off the line. Instead, I would wait a year for Tesla to work out the bugs. I did that with my Model 3, and it has been problem free aside from a rattle that they repaired under warranty. Consumer Reports also found a significant improvement in Model 3 reliability in 2019 and recently moved it to their recommended list.
dsmclone
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by dsmclone »

[/quote]
I'm similar to you, both a car enthusiast and tech guy. I bought a Model 3 last year and have been really happy with it. The car is very fast and fun to drive. It's more comparable to a BMW or Audi than a Kia. Sorry Kia fans, but we our other car is a Kia Sorento and there's no comparison.

I recommend not buying the full self driving option -- it doesn't do much currently, certainly not $7k worth, and there's a lot of risk in assuming it will do something in the future. You can always add it later if Tesla does manage to get it to work.

The fuel savings are nice but I agree it is not enough to justify the cost of the car if you are not normally buying $50k cars (I wasn't either). That said, the resale value so far has been excellent (ranked #1 for 2019 models -- only 5% depreciation in a year!). So maybe the actual cost of ownership won't be too bad if the resale value holds up.

I would recommend not buying the first Model Y off the line. Instead, I would wait a year for Tesla to work out the bugs. I did that with my Model 3, and it has been problem free aside from a rattle that they repaired under warranty. Consumer Reports also found a significant improvement in Model 3 reliability in 2019 and recently moved it to their recommended list.
[/quote]

Great info. Thanks
Beach
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Beach »

hightower wrote: Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:16 am I have enough cash on hand right now to just buy it outright but I am holding on to that for investing when the coronavirus sinks the market this week (my prediction)
Nostradamus right here
Puretaxableindexer
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Puretaxableindexer »

Given that a Tesla is a high tech car and the technology/battery life is always changing model to model, what is the depreciation rate of a brand new Tesla vs a comparable new lux/performance gas-powered Lexus/MB/BMW?
dsmclone
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by dsmclone »

Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:42 pm Given that a Tesla is a high tech car and the technology/battery life is always changing model to model, what is the depreciation rate of a brand new Tesla vs a comparable new lux/performance gas-powered Lexus/MB/BMW?
I think that's a real wildcard. So far it's done very good but if there huge enhancements in the future, you may see a real dropoff. Other electric cars have seen serious resale issues(nissan Leaf) but I think a large % of that had to do with range as well as tax credits.
squirm
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by squirm »

Battery degradation is a big factor. Also look at the warranty, Tesla now states software upgrades that cap your battery is not considered degradation.
Puretaxableindexer
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Puretaxableindexer »

dsmclone wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:51 pm
Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:42 pm Given that a Tesla is a high tech car and the technology/battery life is always changing model to model, what is the depreciation rate of a brand new Tesla vs a comparable new lux/performance gas-powered Lexus/MB/BMW?
I think that's a real wildcard. So far it's done very good but if there huge enhancements in the future, you may see a real dropoff. Other electric cars have seen serious resale issues(nissan Leaf) but I think a large % of that had to do with range as well as tax credits.
I believe you are right. I love the Tesla 3, but the battery life, tax credits, and other tech advancements make me think a newer model will depreciate the previous model even more. And I can't get over the idea standing at a charging station somewhere waiting for 30 minutes to an hour to fully charge. I can't stand going to the gas station and going through that easy process.
dsmclone
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by dsmclone »

squirm wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:56 pm Battery degradation is a big factor. Also look at the warranty, Tesla now states software upgrades that cap your battery is not considered degradation.
Is it though? I've seen reports where it averages around 2% per year.
Afty
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Afty »

Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:42 pm Given that a Tesla is a high tech car and the technology/battery life is always changing model to model, what is the depreciation rate of a brand new Tesla vs a comparable new lux/performance gas-powered Lexus/MB/BMW?
The Model 3 is the #1 least depreciating car on the market. The BMW 3 Series is the 5th worst. See https://www.iseecars.com/cars-to-buy-used-study#v=2020
Puretaxableindexer
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Puretaxableindexer »

My issue is that I buy and keep my cars for 12-15 years, I'm doing it with my current Honda CRV and I did it with my previous Lexus ES300. So If I buy a Tesla 3 and want to keep it for that long won't my battery(s) degrade to the point I need a new one(s) and at a cost of over $7000? (I Googled the cost). And what would be the resale value of an older Tesla Model 3 that I kept with that huge potential battery cost mean? I would be stuck with a Tesla that needs a pricey battery(s) and its resale value would be even worse with that issue. I remember someone who bought a new Honda Accord Hybrid many years ago and said his car ran great and had 100K miles on it but It wouldn't pass inspection because there was an issue with the batteries and that would've cost him over $4000 to fix. He was screwed and took a big loss on a trade-in. I don't want to be in that position years down the road.
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Normchad »

I’m also all in on Tesla. I bought one, a Model 3, and it is a flat out great car. Not just a great electric car, it’s a great car, that happens to be electric.

I agree with Anoop, I don’t think legacy automakers are scrambling to catch up. They make a lot of noise in the press, but I don’t see any actual results from them. I think right now, Nissan is the lone exception, in that they sell a lot of Leafs and Leaf+s.

There just isn’t much competition for them. Looking at the sales data, it looks like Tesla is taking sales from BMW and Mercedes, so they buying public sees them as luxury car. To me, they aren’t luxurious in the traditional sense, but they are loaded with features.

I am hoping that real competition is coming. And if it does, it should decimate the resale value of my car, and I’ll have to, live with that. After all, if Toyota comes out with a 300 mile RAV4 for say $45K, how much could I expect to get for a used ModelY that I paid $60K for?

I could not be happier with my Tesla. I didn’t “get it” until I drove one. For those that don’t get it, I recommend driving one. Although it can be hazardous to your wealth.
emoore
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by emoore »

anoop wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:20 pm
emoore wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:23 am
TomatoTomahto wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:38 am
Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:29 am Seems to me that Tesla is the new cult following like the Prius was more than a decade ago. Then as it is now there were others that competed in the same space but the Prius was the in thing, and now it isn't.
I sort of agree, but there’s a reason for it. I truly wish there were competitive vehicles, especially from Volvo, Porsche, and Mercedes. I would love a smaller crossover from Volvo, but the only real contender is the Model Y.

Shame on the other manufacturers who thought that bad-mouthing Tesla would be sufficient. They wasted years when they could have been catching up to Tesla. They are still years behind, and it looks like Tesla is pulling even further ahead.
Exactly. They are all scrambling to catch up now. There should be a small SUV from VW announced soon and the Ford Mach e looks tempting too.
They are not scrambling even though it may appear so. Most of these guys don’t want to be losing money and EV sales are still around 2% of the market. Tesla is still losing a lot of money but their business model is different from traditional automakers.

Well they are starting to scramble because they will be paying billions in fines in Europe starting this year. Audi stopped production for the eTron because LG ran out of batteries. Same with Mercedes and the EQC. Tesla did it the right way and secured batteries early so they don't have the issues that the legacy auto makers have.
jdb
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by jdb »

matjen wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 8:09 pm 1) There is no factory
2) There is no line (that I am aware of assuming other cars continue to be made)
3) There are no test mules that have ever been photographed
4) There is no money to build it
5) there won't be a Model Y (if ever) for 3 years.
6) Where is the roadster and semi?


The real question is what will be revealed? Will they continue this gofundme/ponzi scheme and ask for $$ up front years in advance. Who would be stupid enough to give them money given the history here?
I miss matjen. It was so much fun. Please return so this thread gets more interesting. And good luck everyone.
cusetownusa
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by cusetownusa »

TheGreyingDuke wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:20 am I am all in on the Teslas but can't convince myself to buy one.

I am 4 hours from the nearest service station and even with the road service, it seems most people have some reason to visit a service station. I am also concerned about the restricted availability of parts, especially body parts. Having no 3rd party parts makes me a forever captive of Tesla. And Tesla doesn't seem to do a good job at getting body parts out, there are many stories of waiting months for parts.

And I don't fully accept the notion that they are free of maintenance issues. Sure anything associated withe the ICE is absent but it has been three years since I had any of those components go on my 12-year-old, 170k miles VW. Mostly dealing with shocks, springs, CV joints.

These reservations would all go away if I was within an hour or so of a service center.
I could have written this myself. If a service center opened up in my area I may be able to justify the model y. Part of me still wants one but I value convenience over most everything else.
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Normchad »

cusetownusa wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:58 pm
TheGreyingDuke wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:20 am I am all in on the Teslas but can't convince myself to buy one.

I am 4 hours from the nearest service station and even with the road service, it seems most people have some reason to visit a service station. I am also concerned about the restricted availability of parts, especially body parts. Having no 3rd party parts makes me a forever captive of Tesla. And Tesla doesn't seem to do a good job at getting body parts out, there are many stories of waiting months for parts.

And I don't fully accept the notion that they are free of maintenance issues. Sure anything associated withe the ICE is absent but it has been three years since I had any of those components go on my 12-year-old, 170k miles VW. Mostly dealing with shocks, springs, CV joints.

These reservations would all go away if I was within an hour or so of a service center.
I could have written this myself. If a service center opened up in my area I may be able to justify the model y. Part of me still wants one but I value convenience over most everything else.
That is a very valid concern. Convenience is super important to me as well. The Tesla mobile rangers are pretty awesome. They come to your house or work and fix stuff; you can’t beat it for convenience. But, they can’t do everything so being near a service center is important. And truthfully, we don’t yet know how reliable they will be as a brand. So we don’t know how often we are likely to need to go to the SC.

A related concern to think about is collision repair. If you’re in an accident, it can take months to get your car back. I know someone who works at a body shop, and he says the cars just sit there, forever, waiting for parts.

I mentally overcame these concerns and bought a model 3.
Last edited by Normchad on Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
anoop
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by anoop »

emoore wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:42 pm Well they are starting to scramble because they will be paying billions in fines in Europe starting this year.
Any chance you have a link that discusses this? I am interested in learning more. I've heard about gas cars getting banned after a certain year (not sure what year and if that has passed and whether or not it includes hybrids), but not about heavy taxes starting this year.

It looks like Japan is betting on hydrogen over electric.

This is my source regarding some that have chosen to ignore the EV race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18Lt-sU ... .be&t=3699
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Normchad »

This is a beautiful two minute video showing US electric car sales by model from 2012 to 2019. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dpsd0yRYk8c

A lot of these are plug in hybrids versus EVs though; there just aren’t many EVs out there....

You can see that Ford, for example, was involved early on but never really did anything. Same for GM.

I think they lack commitment. Partly because they lose money on every one they sell. Partly because they make good money on their current portfolio of vehicles. And partly because they don’t sense a market demand for them.

And other than Mitsubishi, the Japanese brands are almost nowhere to be seen in total sales as of 2019.
emoore
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by emoore »

anoop wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:12 pm
emoore wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:42 pm Well they are starting to scramble because they will be paying billions in fines in Europe starting this year.
Any chance you have a link that discusses this? I am interested in learning more. I've heard about gas cars getting banned after a certain year (not sure what year and if that has passed and whether or not it includes hybrids), but not about heavy taxes starting this year.

It looks like Japan is betting on hydrogen over electric.

This is my source regarding some that have chosen to ignore the EV race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18Lt-sU ... .be&t=3699
https://electrek.co/2020/02/21/report-a ... 2-targets/
randomguy
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by randomguy »

Puretaxableindexer wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:03 pm My issue is that I buy and keep my cars for 12-15 years, I'm doing it with my current Honda CRV and I did it with my previous Lexus ES300. So If I buy a Tesla 3 and want to keep it for that long won't my battery(s) degrade to the point I need a new one(s) and at a cost of over $7000? (I Googled the cost). And what would be the resale value of an older Tesla Model 3 that I kept with that huge potential battery cost mean? I would be stuck with a Tesla that needs a pricey battery(s) and its resale value would be even worse with that issue. I remember someone who bought a new Honda Accord Hybrid many years ago and said his car ran great and had 100K miles on it but It wouldn't pass inspection because there was an issue with the batteries and that would've cost him over $4000 to fix. He was screwed and took a big loss on a trade-in. I don't want to be in that position years down the road.
The current estimates are that the battery packs in Teslas will be good for 250-500k miles. That is going to cover your 12-15 years and is up in the range of where you should be worry about ICE engine failure. That being said I bet those estimates make some assumptions about usage cases and weather conditions. The few really high mileage teslas seem to replace the batteries a bit more often (most seem to be at the 175k or so range) but those area also under very abnormal usages cases (i.e. people driving 80k miles/year).

In the end Teslas are cars. If you look at the real depreciation (i.e. prices paid after rebates and not just looking at MSRP), they perform about the same as any other luxury car. If you look at repairs, they end up with the same number of issues as other cars. Personally I would be a lot more worried about those center screens breaking and the rest of the packaging than I would about the battery pack.

And also if you look at car history, there has never been a breakthrough which really caused a disruption in deprecation. Look at EVs. What has been the rapid advancement that has made the 2012 Model S obsolete? There hasn't been one. The new ones pick up a few features here and there but there hasn't been any breakthroughs (double the range, half the cost, self driving,....) that change the picture. I don't expect that to change. I expect cars to slowly get more autonomous over they next 20 years, battery capacity to keep slowly increasing and costs decreasing, and so on. I doubt we will hit they year where techonology is why nobody wants to buy the 2020 model over the 2021 one.
cusetownusa
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by cusetownusa »

Normchad wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:29 pm This is a beautiful two minute video showing US electric car sales by model from 2012 to 2019. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dpsd0yRYk8c

A lot of these are plug in hybrids versus EVs though; there just aren’t many EVs out there....

You can see that Ford, for example, was involved early on but never really did anything. Same for GM.

I think they lack commitment. Partly because they lose money on every one they sell. Partly because they make good money on their current portfolio of vehicles. And partly because they don’t sense a market demand for them.

And other than Mitsubishi, the Japanese brands are almost nowhere to be seen in total sales as of 2019.
That was cool. Fascinating how quickly the model 3 jumped up the lead with what looked like a lot of momentum. I would bet the Model 3 has sold a lot more since that video was made.
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by JonnyDVM »

OK, I'm totally in on the Y. My wife was talking about getting one. She wants the three-row version. I was initially skeptical, I went to the website. now I'm definitely on board! It just won't let me order the three-row version yet. She wants plain white. I suggested the red. I am excited about being able to order it. Shut-up and take my money!
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Normchad
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by Normchad »

JonnyDVM wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:14 pm OK, I'm totally in on the Y. My wife was talking about getting one. She wants the three-row version. I was initially skeptical, I went to the website. now I'm definitely on board! It just won't let me order the three-row version yet. She wants plain white. I suggested the red. I am excited about being able to order it. Shut-up and take my money!
That’s the spirit! I hope you love it as much as I love my Model 3!
niceguy7376
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by niceguy7376 »

I want to get away from all the current market related postings. I have heard news that some people are getting their vehicles delivered. Care to share your experiences, if any?
fareastwarriors
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Re: Tesla Model Y

Post by fareastwarriors »

I'm gonna wait until next year to get the Y. My portfolio got decimated and I just bought a house. Gotta ride out the 3 for now.
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