Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

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madbrain
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Location: San Jose, California

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by madbrain » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.

Valuethinker
Posts: 39065
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am

madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.

It has a "North London chic" about it - the conspicuous consumption of the professional classes ;-). In the spirit of South Park and deadly "smug emissions" one would feel virtuous just plugging it into the local power point on my High Road ;-).

It's when you hit things like BMW not executing well that one things maybe Tesla has a chance, because the incumbents can't react fast enough. That's the standard lesson from Christensen's Disruptive Innovation, and it may be playing out in cars as it has so many times in the technology industry.

The financials of Tesla and the difficult governance & management turnover continue to worry me. Maybe it's a house of cards, maybe it is not. But they have to concentrate on making cars with fewer faults and so building brand loyalty & reputation. You can have a flamboyant CEO if the team under him/ her is stable and able to deliver, but I don't think Tesla is run that way.

ERISA Stone
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by ERISA Stone » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:12 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am
madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.

It has a "North London chic" about it - the conspicuous consumption of the professional classes ;-). In the spirit of South Park and deadly "smug emissions" one would feel virtuous just plugging it into the local power point on my High Road ;-).

It's when you hit things like BMW not executing well that one things maybe Tesla has a chance, because the incumbents can't react fast enough. That's the standard lesson from Christensen's Disruptive Innovation, and it may be playing out in cars as it has so many times in the technology industry.

The financials of Tesla and the difficult governance & management turnover continue to worry me. Maybe it's a house of cards, maybe it is not. But they have to concentrate on making cars with fewer faults and so building brand loyalty & reputation. You can have a flamboyant CEO if the team under him/ her is stable and able to deliver, but I don't think Tesla is run that way.
This doesn't factor into any decision making for me, but I think Tesla will be fine as long as Elon is running the show, ASSUMING he can stop with the legal interference. I think Tesla is one of those companies where a lot of investors aren't following traditional valuation methods and put more deference into Elon's genius. I think that even if they move towards some sort of desperation territory financially, a fanboy with deep pockets will bail Tesla out.

OKC
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by OKC » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:48 am

I took delivery of a Model 3 a couple weeks ago and my family and I are amazed. The minimalist interior is so refreshing. The User Interface on the touchscreen is well designed and intuitive. We purchased the long range (325 mi) but opted to skip AWD & autopilot.

As far as build quality, the car had a couple of interior scratches, but Tesla will fix. 2 car seats fit in back no problem. The car seems a little small, but my prior 3 cars were Escalades. Compared to a large SUV, getting in and out of the Model 3 isn't easy for me (I'm 6'4", 240 lbs) but once inside it is comfy. Compared to my wife's 2010 BMW 328i, the Tesla feels roomier and rides smoother. Besides rotating tires, the car doesn't need maintenance until after 2 years.

Overall, the Model 3 is a terrific vehicle.

SxSW
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by SxSW » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:53 am

I've had my Chevy Bolt for 18 months now, and it's by far the best car I've ever owned. I didn't want to wait for a Tesla, and it ended up being the right decision. I charge at home, and rarely is range an issue. If I need to drive across the state or something, I make plans to charge or we use my wife's ICE car. It's really not a concern 99% of the time. The acceleration is awesome, and being able to drive in the carpool lane at any time makes rush hour a whole different experience.

michaeljc70
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by michaeljc70 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:02 am

I'm curious about RWD vs AWD in places that get snow. If you go the AWD route, it seems like you have to get the premium interior. Basically, cheapest base option is over $40k.

FoolStreet
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:39 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:02 am
I'm curious about RWD vs AWD in places that get snow. If you go the AWD route, it seems like you have to get the premium interior. Basically, cheapest base option is over $40k.
I hear that if you live in snow country, it is better to just get a set of winter tires. Sure winter tires plus AWD is nice, but not required.

FoolStreet
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:42 am

michaeljc70 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:02 am
I'm curious about RWD vs AWD in places that get snow. If you go the AWD route, it seems like you have to get the premium interior. Basically, cheapest base option is over $40k.
By the way, the regen really helped me drive in the snow and be able to slow down without locking up tires.

researcher
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by researcher » Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:52 am

OKC wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:48 am
I took delivery of a Model 3 a couple weeks ago and my family and I are amazed.
Overall, the Model 3 is a terrific vehicle.

...getting in and out of the Model 3 isn't easy for me (I'm 6'4", 240 lbs)
The Model 3 doesn't provide you the ability to easily get in/out of the car, which seems like a basic requirement for any vehicle.

Yet you are "amazed" at the car and think it is a "terrific" vehicle?

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matjen
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by matjen » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:00 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am
madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.
This was the route I took since I live in the center of a major City. IMO a used BMW i3 is an incredible value for a city dweller. Sits upright so great visibility, body is rubberized so doesn't dent, amazingly tight turning radius, and very spacious given its tiny length which makes it perfect for urban parking. Unlike a Volt, the i3 doesn't ever use its engine unless it gets down to 6.5% left of battery (in the States). In Europe I believe it can be controlled as to when it turns on and not sure what the low battery level start point is but sure it is very low. So not sure how your friend in Holland was driving it but assume she ran the battery way down every day om like 65 miles each day or was purposefully putting it into a hold state of charge mode to save battery for later.

More here: https://youtu.be/zWgeVytbvLI?t=464

I have had my i3 for 14 months and have used 3 gallons of gas total and perhaps 2 that I really needed. The engine is literally a back-up generator and basically never gets used (other than BMW's maintenance systems turning it on if not used enough) if you drive 50 miles or less each day.

In the US a 2015 loaded model goes for about 20K and usually with very low miles and is indistinguishable from a brand new model except for battery size. This will get me by until the next generation comes out.
Last edited by matjen on Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:39 pm, edited 3 times in total.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

fareastwarriors
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by fareastwarriors » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:22 pm

SxSW wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:53 am
I've had my Chevy Bolt for 18 months now, and it's by far the best car I've ever owned. I didn't want to wait for a Tesla, and it ended up being the right decision. I charge at home, and rarely is range an issue. If I need to drive across the state or something, I make plans to charge or we use my wife's ICE car. It's really not a concern 99% of the time. The acceleration is awesome, and being able to drive in the carpool lane at any time makes rush hour a whole different experience.

Nothing wrong with the Bolt. I enjoyed it while I drove it. A new Bolt is like mid 30s to 40s so I rather stretch get a Tesla. I'm even happier with the 3. No regrets.

z0r
Posts: 131
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:50 am

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by z0r » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:00 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am
madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.
This was the route I took since I live in the center of a major City. IMO a used BMW i3 is an incredible value for a city dweller. Sits upright so great visibility, body is rubberized so doesn't dent, amazingly tight turning radius, and very spacious given its tiny length which makes it perfect for urban parking. Unlike a Volt, the i3 doesn't ever use its engine unless it gets down to 6.5% left of battery (in the States). In Europe I believe it can be controlled as to when it turns on and not sure what the low battery level start point is but sure it is very low. So not sure how your friend in Holland was driving it but assume she ran the battery way down every day om like 65 miles each day or was purposefully putting it into a hold state of charge mode to save battery for later.

I have had my i3 for 14 months and have used 3 gallons of gas total and perhaps 2 that I really needed. The engine is literally a back-up generator and basically never gets used (other than BMW's maintenance systems turning it on if not used enough) if you drive 50 miles or less each day.

In the US a 2015 loaded model goes for about 20K and usually with very low miles and is indistinguishable from a brand new model except for battery size. This will get me by until the next generation comes out.
how are your tires lasting? BMW put very odd sized tires on it and some have reported that the cost per mile of tires is a lot higher than it should be, like, $1000 for a set every 20k miles (5 cents a mile in tires, which is a lot for a small car)

FoolStreet
Posts: 868
Joined: Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:18 am

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:44 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:00 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am
madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.
This was the route I took since I live in the center of a major City. IMO a used BMW i3 is an incredible value for a city dweller. Sits upright so great visibility, body is rubberized so doesn't dent, amazingly tight turning radius, and very spacious given its tiny length which makes it perfect for urban parking. Unlike a Volt, the i3 doesn't ever use its engine unless it gets down to 6.5% left of battery (in the States). In Europe I believe it can be controlled as to when it turns on and not sure what the low battery level start point is but sure it is very low. So not sure how your friend in Holland was driving it but assume she ran the battery way down every day om like 65 miles each day or was purposefully putting it into a hold state of charge mode to save battery for later.

More here: https://youtu.be/zWgeVytbvLI?t=293

I have had my i3 for 14 months and have used 3 gallons of gas total and perhaps 2 that I really needed. The engine is literally a back-up generator and basically never gets used (other than BMW's maintenance systems turning it on if not used enough) if you drive 50 miles or less each day.

In the US a 2015 loaded model goes for about 20K and usually with very low miles and is indistinguishable from a brand new model except for battery size. This will get me by until the next generation comes out.
I found a 2015 i3 that was still eligible for tags for about 14k (craigslist, not dealer). It would have been the perfect commuter. But I wanted the option for road trips. And wife vetoed the suicide door because of kids.

The reality is that you don’t need a lot of range for a commuter.

I hope BMW will do more full electric cars and I would love to replace our x5 with a fully electric x1 or 2. (Or fully electric glc). I don’t see the point of plug in hybrids. The range is too short for daily driving unless you can reliably charge at work guaranteed every day. And the Hybrid doesn’t give you meaningful mpg improvement.

Maybe in a few years BMW will deliver something consumers want. In the meantime leasehackr says they are great for leasing.

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matjen
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by matjen » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:46 pm

z0r wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

how are your tires lasting? BMW put very odd sized tires on it and some have reported that the cost per mile of tires is a lot higher than it should be, like, $1000 for a set every 20k miles (5 cents a mile in tires, which is a lot for a small car)
Mine are doing OK but I could see needing replacement every 20K. They are much less money though than your quote. Tire Rack has the 19 inch tires for about $155 a tire and the 20 inch version for about $170 a tire.

Electric cars tend to use up a bit more tire for sure. Torque ain't free. ;-)
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

clutchied
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by clutchied » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:02 pm
Spend 1/2 of $35K, get a Mazda 3, much fun to drive. Spend your savings into XOM, or Shell Company. The dividend will pay for your gas expense. Tesla is no zero emission. Electricity is from dirty coal or natural gas. Zoom Zoom Zoom.
Coal has been in decline for a decade and won't last much beyond maybe another 10 or 20 without massive subsidies.

In Ohio we are deregulated.

My car and my house run on 100% renewable wind energy.

Regardless even if I ran on 100% coal it's still cleaner than internal combustion.

z0r
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Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 1:50 am

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by z0r » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:46 pm
z0r wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

how are your tires lasting? BMW put very odd sized tires on it and some have reported that the cost per mile of tires is a lot higher than it should be, like, $1000 for a set every 20k miles (5 cents a mile in tires, which is a lot for a small car)
Mine are doing OK but I could see needing replacement every 20K. They are much less money though than your quote. Tire Rack has the 19 inch tires for about $155 a tire and the 20 inch version for about $170 a tire.

Electric cars tend to use up a bit more tire for sure. Torque ain't free. ;-)
tirerack is a good idea. add install and you're around $700 in my mcol for the plebeian size wheel, 3.5 cents/ mile. my commuter car which weighs the same as an i3 runs $400/set for very high end tires and they last 40-50k, that's my baseline

I don't think there's a fundamental reason electric cars should burn tires when doing the efficient point a to b thing. Elon claims they can have much better traction control because of the instant torque. maybe they can implement a tire scrooge mode to keep them within a low wear regime

ddurrett896
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by ddurrett896 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm

clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 pm
My car and my house run on 100% renewable wind energy.
A single windmill takes like 1,000 tons of material to build. That's lot of excavating, transporting and building by gas powered machines. Add in storage and transmission of the power plus maintenance and it's a loser.
Last edited by ddurrett896 on Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

stoptothink
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by stoptothink » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:18 pm

ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 pm
My car and my house run on 100% renewable wind energy.
A single windmill takes like 1,000 lbs of material to build. That's lot of excavating, transporting and building by gas powered machines. Add in storage and transmission of the power plus maintenance and it's a loser.
It's next to impossible to accurately gauge the differences when it comes to this topic, there are a million little factors (many of them unknown). When someone says they feel good about driving an EV because it is better for the environment, I just assume they are virtue signaling. It very well might be, but nobody can really evaluate the totality of that question and say that for certain.

boogiehead
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by boogiehead » Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:33 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:46 pm
z0r wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

how are your tires lasting? BMW put very odd sized tires on it and some have reported that the cost per mile of tires is a lot higher than it should be, like, $1000 for a set every 20k miles (5 cents a mile in tires, which is a lot for a small car)
Mine are doing OK but I could see needing replacement every 20K. They are much less money though than your quote. Tire Rack has the 19 inch tires for about $155 a tire and the 20 inch version for about $170 a tire.

Electric cars tend to use up a bit more tire for sure. Torque ain't free. ;-)
Had a 2015 i3 and replaced all 4 tires @ 20,395 miles.... rear were basically gone, front probably still had another 2,000 miles left. I had 19s and they were $138 each front tires and $150 each for the back tire

clutchied
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by clutchied » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm

ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:00 pm
My car and my house run on 100% renewable wind energy.
A single windmill takes like 1,000 tons of material to build. That's lot of excavating, transporting and building by gas powered machines. Add in storage and transmission of the power plus maintenance and it's a loser.
that's why they keep building them huh? No Economic viability? I know when I'm investing I like to buy things that are "losers." Especially when I'm sinking millions of dollars into it!

that's why Ohio has shut down 7 or 8 coal plants in the last decade?
I'm not here to squab about this; LIFE uses resources, but if I can minimize what we use and get our resources from the sun and wind why not?
there is no safe level of PM2.5 and any reduction has health benefits.

Ball park how many people are in the coal mining industry? 50k. How many people are in the renewable sector? 350k! and oh by the way those jobs didn't exist 10 years ago. That's a quote from Gary Cohn.

Renewables have made up 62% 55% and 36% of all NEW installed electrical capacity the last 3 years. It's only a matter of time...

I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
Last edited by clutchied on Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ddurrett896
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by ddurrett896 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm

clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.

clutchied
Posts: 636
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by clutchied » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:45 pm

ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.
fascinating!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren- ... oject.html

User avatar
BoglePaul
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by BoglePaul » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm

How do the doors open if there is no power?

ddurrett896
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by ddurrett896 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:57 pm

clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:45 pm
ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.
fascinating!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren- ... oject.html
“Buffett said Berkshire is in a good position to compete with electric utilties companies since the conglomerate can take better advantage of tax incentives for alternative energy projects.”

Only with tax incentives like I said

cwied
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Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2012 11:35 pm

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by cwied » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:28 pm

BoglePaul wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm
How do the doors open if there is no power?
There's still a manual release lever. The windows stay up if there's no power, though, so there's more of a possibility of damaging them when opening using the manual levers.

Afty
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Afty » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:16 pm

z0r wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:09 pm
matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:46 pm
z0r wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

how are your tires lasting? BMW put very odd sized tires on it and some have reported that the cost per mile of tires is a lot higher than it should be, like, $1000 for a set every 20k miles (5 cents a mile in tires, which is a lot for a small car)
Mine are doing OK but I could see needing replacement every 20K. They are much less money though than your quote. Tire Rack has the 19 inch tires for about $155 a tire and the 20 inch version for about $170 a tire.

Electric cars tend to use up a bit more tire for sure. Torque ain't free. ;-)
tirerack is a good idea. add install and you're around $700 in my mcol for the plebeian size wheel, 3.5 cents/ mile. my commuter car which weighs the same as an i3 runs $400/set for very high end tires and they last 40-50k, that's my baseline

I don't think there's a fundamental reason electric cars should burn tires when doing the efficient point a to b thing. Elon claims they can have much better traction control because of the instant torque. maybe they can implement a tire scrooge mode to keep them within a low wear regime
You can set the Model 3 to "Chill Mode," which slows it down considerably and might help with the tires. The other problem is that EVs are quite heavy for their size.

Longdog
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Longdog » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:41 pm

cwied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:28 pm
BoglePaul wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm
How do the doors open if there is no power?
There's still a manual release lever. The windows stay up if there's no power, though, so there's more of a possibility of damaging them when opening using the manual levers.
I interpret “no power” to mean battery is fully drained or battery/electric system has failed. Given that, I’m unclear if he was trying to get in or trying to get out when there’s no power. The manual release will allow you to get out with no power. Not sure why you’d want to get in with no power...
Steve

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BoglePaul
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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by BoglePaul » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:29 pm

Longdog wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:41 pm
cwied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:28 pm
BoglePaul wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm
How do the doors open if there is no power?
There's still a manual release lever. The windows stay up if there's no power, though, so there's more of a possibility of damaging them when opening using the manual levers.
I interpret “no power” to mean battery is fully drained or battery/electric system has failed. Given that, I’m unclear if he was trying to get in or trying to get out when there’s no power. The manual release will allow you to get out with no power. Not sure why you’d want to get in with no power...
Hopefully your passengers will remember where the "emergency latch" is in case they need to exit the car quickly and the power is down / system blue screens / water shorts something out. Perhaps the car should include a "flight attendant" briefing before each trip.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by emoore » Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:32 pm

BoglePaul wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:29 pm
Longdog wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:41 pm
cwied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:28 pm
BoglePaul wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm
How do the doors open if there is no power?
There's still a manual release lever. The windows stay up if there's no power, though, so there's more of a possibility of damaging them when opening using the manual levers.
I interpret “no power” to mean battery is fully drained or battery/electric system has failed. Given that, I’m unclear if he was trying to get in or trying to get out when there’s no power. The manual release will allow you to get out with no power. Not sure why you’d want to get in with no power...
Hopefully your passengers will remember where the "emergency latch" is in case they need to exit the car quickly and the power is down / system blue screens / water shorts something out. Perhaps the car should include a "flight attendant" briefing before each trip.
that's a bit ridiculous. How often do you think people run out of power and are trapped in the car? It's not like a failing 12v battery on an ICE car. There is a bit a reserve power even after the car is drained and won't drive.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Longdog » Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:09 am

emoore wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:32 pm
BoglePaul wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:29 pm
Longdog wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:41 pm
cwied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:28 pm
BoglePaul wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:49 pm
How do the doors open if there is no power?
There's still a manual release lever. The windows stay up if there's no power, though, so there's more of a possibility of damaging them when opening using the manual levers.
I interpret “no power” to mean battery is fully drained or battery/electric system has failed. Given that, I’m unclear if he was trying to get in or trying to get out when there’s no power. The manual release will allow you to get out with no power. Not sure why you’d want to get in with no power...
Hopefully your passengers will remember where the "emergency latch" is in case they need to exit the car quickly and the power is down / system blue screens / water shorts something out. Perhaps the car should include a "flight attendant" briefing before each trip.
that's a bit ridiculous. How often do you think people run out of power and are trapped in the car? It's not like a failing 12v battery on an ICE car. There is a bit a reserve power even after the car is drained and won't drive.
Plus, the manual latch is the one that people instinctively use because of its placement. The education comes in explaining to people to use the less obvious (electronic) button that lowers the window slightly on opening. On numerous occasions my passengers have mistakenly used the manual latch - no harm caused. So escaping the car when it loses all power is no more a problem than any other vehicle. Pull up the latch on the door handle!
Steve

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by lightheir » Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:22 am

ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.
I'm no expert but your Warren buffer quote intrigued me.

I googled it just now, sounds like you are quoting him from 2014. At least from what I could tell on my super brief Google search he totally flipped after 2017 and was down on coal and in on wind. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by clutchied » Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:04 am

ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:57 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:45 pm
ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.
fascinating!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren- ... oject.html
“Buffett said Berkshire is in a good position to compete with electric utilties companies since the conglomerate can take better advantage of tax incentives for alternative energy projects.”

Only with tax incentives like I said

So Just so we're all clear where we've been in this conversation.


1. I stated my car runs on wind energy
2. You posited that wind was a "loser" because it required materials to build.
3. I provided stats on renewable making up a major part of any new installed capacity in the US, as well as stating how many jobs generally are in the field. I also noted the closure of non-competitive coal plants.
4. You said you follow Buffett and energy tech is a "bad bet".
5. I posted an article with Buffett himself saying “We have got a big appetite for wind or solar,”
6. You posted "Only with tax incentives like I said"


I'm just curious if you're aware how far you've moved the goalposts to deny a reality that's already here and sitting in front of your face?

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by RobLyons » Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:23 am

I was prepared to give examples of how better to spend your money but then I saw your NW and annual income and quickly realized $37k is a drop in the bucket for you so why not buy it if it's really something you want!

At age 38, I would retire off that NW and our family would live comfortably! Congrats and enjoy your new car.
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by FireSekr » Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:51 am

clutchied wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:04 am
ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:57 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:45 pm
ddurrett896 wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:42 pm
clutchied wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:39 pm
I'm getting pretty tired of debating people like you who aren't informed on these topics and yet hold absurdly strong beliefs.
I follow Warren Buffet who said, "on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit."

energy technology is a bad bet.
fascinating!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/06/warren- ... oject.html
“Buffett said Berkshire is in a good position to compete with electric utilties companies since the conglomerate can take better advantage of tax incentives for alternative energy projects.”

Only with tax incentives like I said

So Just so we're all clear where we've been in this conversation.


1. I stated my car runs on wind energy
2. You posited that wind was a "loser" because it required materials to build.
3. I provided stats on renewable making up a major part of any new installed capacity in the US, as well as stating how many jobs generally are in the field. I also noted the closure of non-competitive coal plants.
4. You said you follow Buffett and energy tech is a "bad bet".
5. I posted an article with Buffett himself saying “We have got a big appetite for wind or solar,”
6. You posted "Only with tax incentives like I said"


I'm just curious if you're aware how far you've moved the goalposts to deny a reality that's already here and sitting in front of your face?
I don’t have much of an opinion on wind energy as I don’t know enough about it to make an educated comment but I am in favor of renewable energy in general.

But your evidence is misleading. You’re specifically talking about wind energy then citing stats on renewable energy in general. Those jobs you cited were in renewable energy, not wind specifically. Wind only makes up a portion of renewable, along with hydro which is a greater portion than wind.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by protagonist » Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am

It's new, untested technology.

If you want to spend $35K to be a lab rat, go ahead. I am not being sarcastic. If you are in love with the car, and can afford it, I can understand why a $35K gamble would make sense. Buy it and have fun. But be aware that you have no idea what service nightmares may be in store for you in the future.

My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by 4nursebee » Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:25 pm

WOW, this car/driver makes it go, video at track: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3IHb8R ... e=youtu.be
4nursebee

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by madbrain » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:58 am

protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank.
Frankly, there is a diminishing return between 300 miles and 1000 miles on a single charge. Unless there is no price difference (ie. no more 300 miles cars are produced, and the new 1000 miles cars are the same price as the old 300 miles cars), I doubt most would go for the 1000 miles car. Whereas there is a huge usability issue between, say, 70 miles battery (Nissan Leaf) and the range of any Tesla.

Reducing the charging time will require improvements not just in the cars, but also investments in charging infrastructure. The highest charge rates the vehicles support are already not possible at every charger in existence. That will remain the case for a long time.
If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?
Depends how much the new models cost vs the old ones. It's not really relevant, though. Cars are consumption items that depreciate by definition. They are not investments. My Chevrolet Bolt didn't become less fun to drive when the Tesla Model 3 was finally on the road. The depreciation on it is steep, but not really worse than any other EVs. If anything, the Teslas depreciate less when you compare them to other EVs.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:50 am

ssquared87 wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:51 am

I don’t have much of an opinion on wind energy as I don’t know enough about it to make an educated comment but I am in favor of renewable energy in general.

But your evidence is misleading. You’re specifically talking about wind energy then citing stats on renewable energy in general. Those jobs you cited were in renewable energy, not wind specifically. Wind only makes up a portion of renewable, along with hydro which is a greater portion than wind.
Hydro in the USA is very few jobs.

The Hoover dam and the Grand Coulee dam are built. With the exceptions of repowering (such as has been done at Niagara Falls NY) the major rivers in the USA are dammed, and the power stations built. They then have very small operating staff - if there is not a tourist potential then really few operating staff. There are micro hydro installations being built in some places but often that is a "drop in" solution (so again few jobs on site).

Wind is a source of construction jobs. An intense burst while the site is prepared and the turbine raised. After that there are a number of Operations & Maintenance jobs - probably more per GW than gas-fired or hydro-electric.

So per GW of capacity wind is greater source of jobs. Both in construction (now) and in the future (operations).

But that's not the point. The Hydro resource of the USA is tapped out (unless major Alaskan rivers could be dammed and the power shipped south). The wind resource of the USA is barely tapped. And the offshore wind resource of the USA is as huge again & I think the first offshore wind farm might have been commissioned? (the UK is way ahead in this area - heading on for 10 GW of offshore wind capacity). Capacity Factors (utilization) are much higher for offshore wind & that can make for attractive economics despite the higher cost of new.

In the medium term it may be that solar laps it. Solar offers the possibility of falling costs for basically forever (due to new materials etc.). The USA, again, has an enormous solar resource. Whereas wind cost improvements are incremental, arising from larger turbines. There are various innovations in blade design etc. out there that might give further step changes but at the moment it's unlikely that costs will do a step change down.

On Hydro the major remaining possibilities are largely in Canada. Quebec and James Bay in particular, also Labrador. However Muskrat Falls (Labrador) is a financial disaster which will cripple a small province (Newfoundland), doubling provincial debt. Most of the other possible Canadian projects are tied up in First Nations land and sovereignty claims. Unless high voltage DC lines can be built from Quebec to New York & New England, that eastern resource will remain untapped.

As we can see with the pipeline struggles & First Nations, damming more rivers in British Columbia is probably a non-starter.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Afty » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:23 am

protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.
How much do you think those gas and hybrid cars are going to be worth if your prediction about 1000-mile EVs comes true?

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by protagonist » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:27 am

Afty wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:23 am
protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.
How much do you think those gas and hybrid cars are going to be worth if your prediction about 1000-mile EVs comes true?
I'm not really predicting. I have no idea what the future will bring. Like I said, I would not be surprised.
You make a good point about the gas and hybrid cars. In fact, if self-driving cars become economical and mainstream, no used cars will be worth much.
Last edited by protagonist on Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:28 am

matjen wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:00 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:06 am
madbrain wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:53 am
You make good points... Are there any plug-in hybrids that just have a built in gas generator?
The Chevrolet Volt, depending on what you call "just".
https://www.plugincars.com/exclusive-ch ... e-90758.ht

It's certainly not simple, but the article says :
The gas engine, under most conditions, will be used to drive the generator and produce electricity, and will not be used to drive the wheels.
Also the BMW i3.

I think the car looks neat - straight out of "Tron" (the original one).

However the reviews are mixed. The battery capacity is not large, and the range extending engine adds cost. A friend of mine rented one for a few days in Holland and said it seemed to be going all the time - she called it the "putt putt outboard boat motor".

I did think one could probably pick up a used i3 relatively cheaply.
This was the route I took since I live in the center of a major City. IMO a used BMW i3 is an incredible value for a city dweller. Sits upright so great visibility, body is rubberized so doesn't dent, amazingly tight turning radius, and very spacious given its tiny length which makes it perfect for urban parking. Unlike a Volt, the i3 doesn't ever use its engine unless it gets down to 6.5% left of battery (in the States). In Europe I believe it can be controlled as to when it turns on and not sure what the low battery level start point is but sure it is very low. So not sure how your friend in Holland was driving it but assume she ran the battery way down every day om like 65 miles each day or was purposefully putting it into a hold state of charge mode to save battery for later.

More here: https://youtu.be/zWgeVytbvLI?t=464

I have had my i3 for 14 months and have used 3 gallons of gas total and perhaps 2 that I really needed. The engine is literally a back-up generator and basically never gets used (other than BMW's maintenance systems turning it on if not used enough) if you drive 50 miles or less each day.

In the US a 2015 loaded model goes for about 20K and usually with very low miles and is indistinguishable from a brand new model except for battery size. This will get me by until the next generation comes out.
Thank you. Good grif.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:20 am

protagonist wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:27 am
Afty wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:23 am
protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.
How much do you think those gas and hybrid cars are going to be worth if your prediction about 1000-mile EVs comes true?
I'm not really predicting. I have no idea what the future will bring. Like I said, I would not be surprised.
You make a good point about the gas and hybrid cars. In fact, if self-driving cars become economical and mainstream, no used cars will be worth much.
My understanding is that truly autonomous vehicles, operating on normal roads, are a long way from realisation. The situations are just too complex and too random.

1000 mile EVs? We don't do 1000 mile gasoline engine cars. We make do with 300-350 miles in a tank?

Battery technology is improving linearly - nothing like the speed at which electronics improve.

My own view is that around 2040 (could be 2030) we will ban fossil-fuel using cars outright -- you will only see them at weekend fairs for afficionados. There might be fuel cell vehicles by then, with a hydrogen infrastructure, and there will be EVs. Whatever the limitations of EVs, we will learn to live with them.

My model there is of huge societal inertia, albeit technological change going on in the background, followed by a fairly radical move to a new position. It seems to me that's how western society reacts to catastrophes -- with total inertia and then a tipping point is reached and we move to a new equilibrium -- the impossible becomes suddenly possible, the unacceptable the accepted norm.

(From memory in the influenza of 1919-20, which killed perhaps 1-2% of the world population at the time (more than WW1 had managed), there's a contrast between St. Louis and Philadelphia. In one, and I forget which, prompt public action to close theatres, swim baths etc, saved many lives vs the other.)

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by protagonist » Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:17 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:20 am
protagonist wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:27 am
Afty wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:23 am
protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.
How much do you think those gas and hybrid cars are going to be worth if your prediction about 1000-mile EVs comes true?
I'm not really predicting. I have no idea what the future will bring. Like I said, I would not be surprised.
You make a good point about the gas and hybrid cars. In fact, if self-driving cars become economical and mainstream, no used cars will be worth much.
My understanding is that truly autonomous vehicles, operating on normal roads, are a long way from realisation. The situations are just too complex and too random.

I agree with that, but perhaps more for reasons related to public perception and liability than to potential technological progress.

Society has come to grips with, and accepts, the fact that there will be a certain number of motor vehicle deaths per year due to human error.

But even if truly autonomous vehicles can be shown to be far safer than human-driven vehicles, I doubt that any major manufacturer wants to be the first one to have his mass-produced autonomous vehicle kill a child. That would be instantly world-news worthy, whereas a drunk driver killing a child probably only makes the local news in small communities.

I wonder if that was the case when cars started killing people over 100 years ago....I would not be surprised if there was widespread outrage, despite the fact that early cars probably were a lot safer than horses.

Elon Musk is a much greater risk-taker than GM or Ford (and has a lot less to lose). That's probably a good thing, because at least somebody with capital is willing to push the boundaries of technological progress.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by sunny_socal » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:42 am

Did OP ever buy a Tesla? Fun toy I'm sure, but not something I'd plan to own for 10 years. The future of Tesla doesn't seem secure.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:38 am

protagonist wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 2:17 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 3:20 am
protagonist wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:27 am
Afty wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:23 am
protagonist wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:33 am
My other caveat related to electric cars....the technology is developing at lightning speed (Thanks in part to Musk). I would not be surprised if in a few years, cars are built that will go 1000 miles on a charge and will fully charge in the time it takes to fill up your gas tank. If that is the case, how much do you think you will want to drive your Tesla 3, and how much do you think it will be worth?

There are lots of cars, both gas and hybrid, that get 40 mpg or better on the highway these days, with a range of 400-500 miles or more between fill-ups. And gas stations are everywhere. That's pretty economical and convenient.
How much do you think those gas and hybrid cars are going to be worth if your prediction about 1000-mile EVs comes true?
I'm not really predicting. I have no idea what the future will bring. Like I said, I would not be surprised.
You make a good point about the gas and hybrid cars. In fact, if self-driving cars become economical and mainstream, no used cars will be worth much.
My understanding is that truly autonomous vehicles, operating on normal roads, are a long way from realisation. The situations are just too complex and too random.

I agree with that, but perhaps more for reasons related to public perception and liability than to potential technological progress.

Society has come to grips with, and accepts, the fact that there will be a certain number of motor vehicle deaths per year due to human error.

But even if truly autonomous vehicles can be shown to be far safer than human-driven vehicles, I doubt that any major manufacturer wants to be the first one to have his mass-produced autonomous vehicle kill a child. That would be instantly world-news worthy, whereas a drunk driver killing a child probably only makes the local news in small communities.

I wonder if that was the case when cars started killing people over 100 years ago....I would not be surprised if there was widespread outrage, despite the fact that early cars probably were a lot safer than horses.

Elon Musk is a much greater risk-taker than GM or Ford (and has a lot less to lose). That's probably a good thing, because at least somebody with capital is willing to push the boundaries of technological progress.
For personal reasons I have a great interest in automotive safety particularly towards pedestrians.

I accept your point re salience. We will remember the civilians killed by AVs for a lot longer than the ordinary traffic deaths which blight our lives.

My general understanding is that the complexities are so large that it just will not be easy to crack. Snowy roads. Blinding sunshine. The chaos of the road environment. etc.

Lots of headlines getting this far, but the next part is really, really difficult. WayMo (Google?) is supposed to be well ahead of anyone else, yet also as I understand it has become notably more cautious in its pronouncements.

The company that would take the risk, I think, is more likely Amazon. That line by Jeff Bezos "this company has many far more expensive mistakes yet to make" (paraphrase, when writing off the Kindle Fire phone). Uber felt like hypeware in a hyped company. Tesla is a massively hyped company and there were comments that the risk Musk was running describing its AV features was just huge - that the technology just cannot do that.

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Jeff Albertson » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:28 pm

CNET's Brain Cooley did a 3 minute video on the new insurance institute ratings, "Never mind the occupants, the safest cars will soon protect pedestrians". One statistic,

US Auto Fatalities from 2009 to 2017:
45% increase in auto-pedestrian deaths
the auto deaths due to all causes rose only 10%
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/ne ... destrians/

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Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:27 pm

researcher wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:52 am
OKC wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:48 am
I took delivery of a Model 3 a couple weeks ago and my family and I are amazed.
Overall, the Model 3 is a terrific vehicle.

...getting in and out of the Model 3 isn't easy for me (I'm 6'4", 240 lbs)
The Model 3 doesn't provide you the ability to easily get in/out of the car, which seems like a basic requirement for any vehicle.

Yet you are "amazed" at the car and think it is a "terrific" vehicle?
Sports cars are not easy entry nor exit. Not everything is built like an SUV.

Mind SUVs aren't great access for some sizes of people.

Valuethinker
Posts: 39065
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:28 pm

Jeff Albertson wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:28 pm
CNET's Brain Cooley did a 3 minute video on the new insurance institute ratings, "Never mind the occupants, the safest cars will soon protect pedestrians". One statistic,

US Auto Fatalities from 2009 to 2017:
45% increase in auto-pedestrian deaths
the auto deaths due to all causes rose only 10%
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/ne ... destrians/
Yes. Personal experience.

iamlucky13
Posts: 1522
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2017 5:28 pm
Location: Western Washington

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by iamlucky13 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:56 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:38 am
Lots of headlines getting this far, but the next part is really, really difficult. WayMo (Google?) is supposed to be well ahead of anyone else, yet also as I understand it has become notably more cautious in its pronouncements.

The company that would take the risk, I think, is more likely Amazon. That line by Jeff Bezos "this company has many far more expensive mistakes yet to make" (paraphrase, when writing off the Kindle Fire phone). Uber felt like hypeware in a hyped company. Tesla is a massively hyped company and there were comments that the risk Musk was running describing its AV features was just huge - that the technology just cannot do that.
Based on recent actions with legal and financial liability repercussions (particularly involving the SEC), I think the corporate leadership of Google and Amazon have very different understandings of legal obligations and the potential to be found negligent for business and engineering decisions than the effectively singular leadership of Tesla does.

Working in the aerospace industry, and closely following the news on the investigation of the two recent 737 crashes, I'm astounded at the casual approach being taken in pushing self-driving features into cars.

It's been progressively ingrained into me that certification standards are not a hurdle to be avoided if possible or cleared with the minimum effort necessary, but in addition to their primary purpose of protecting the customer, also a form protection for manufacturer to ensure they have made a reasonable effort to make their product safe.

I think many in the automotive industry will be a lot more comfortable introducing increasingly capable self-driving features into widespread use when there is a certification standard for taking on some of the responsibilities currently regulated by driver licensing.

madbrain
Posts: 5243
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

Post by madbrain » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:30 am

If OP didn't pull the trigger yet, he missed his chance.
The Tesla model 3 is no longer $35k.

https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/telsa-35000-model-3/

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