ROI calc on grocery expenses

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tmcc
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ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by tmcc » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:01 pm

I am trying to figure out an ROI on this 24lb tub of mac and cheese that costco has. They claim it'll last 20 years. Adjusted for inflation, how would I go about doing the ROI calc on this versus cashflowing my mac and cheese needs? I average mac and cheese 2-3 nights per month and I usually buy kraft with Velveeta and shells.

https://www.costco.com/.product.100108871.html

lakja
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by lakja » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:04 pm

Haha, what you really need to consider is can you afford it, or better yet, what's the lowest ownership cost on buying mac and cheese and how will that impact your ability to FIRE.

livesoft
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by livesoft » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:05 pm

I'm laughing. There is no need to eat Mac & Cheese, so I assume you are donating it to the Food Pantry in your area.
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Pinotage
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Pinotage » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:08 pm

It may last 20 years intact, but what happens when you open one of the pouches?
Costco wrote:Elbow Pasta: 180 Servings
Cheddar Cheese Sauce: 180 Servings
6, 30 serving zip-sealed pouches of Cheddar Sauce Mix
6, 30 serving zip-sealed pouches of Elbow Macaroni Pasta

indexonlyplease
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by indexonlyplease » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:12 pm

Who eats boxed mac and cheese. Are you in that bad of a situation. Cancel your cable and wifi then you will not need to eat mac and cheese.

LookinAround
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by LookinAround » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:31 pm

Hmmm.. Is there a market for mac and cheese futures?

123
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by 123 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:14 pm

I'm surprised that mac & cheese haters have surfaced on Bogledheads. I absolutely love the stuff and serve it at least once a week. Unfortunately we don't like the flavor of the national Kraft brand but we love one of the Safeway store brands. A couple of times at the grocery I've felt a little odd about paying full price for the store brand when the Kraft brand was on sale. Of course when the store brand is on sale I load up on it.
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runner3081
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by runner3081 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm

It is very, very negative when you factor in health impacts.

adamthesmythe
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by adamthesmythe » Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:23 pm

indexonlyplease wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:12 pm
Who eats boxed mac and cheese. Are you in that bad of a situation. Cancel your cable and wifi then you will not need to eat mac and cheese.
It IS a step or two above ramen noodles.

Personally I like macaroni and cheese along with other pasta dishes. But then I make it myself.

2015
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by 2015 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 pm

runner3081 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm
It is very, very negative when you factor in health impacts.
Totally agree. OTOH, not everyone cares about the health impacts of their daily diet. Same goes for attention to exercise or lack thereof. This isn't a judgment. It's just that people have different priorities in life and are making choices based on those priorities.

Topic Author
tmcc
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by tmcc » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:08 pm

LookinAround wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:31 pm
Hmmm.. Is there a market for mac and cheese futures?
Here we go

I'll put on a butterfly spread on wheat and cattle futures. Maybe I should throw in some lumber too so I can have mixing spoons.

runner3081
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by runner3081 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:26 pm

2015 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 pm
runner3081 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm
It is very, very negative when you factor in health impacts.
Totally agree. OTOH, not everyone cares about the health impacts of their daily diet. Same goes for attention to exercise or lack thereof. This isn't a judgment. It's just that people have different priorities in life and are making choices based on those priorities.
Agree and I don't judge, it is their life.

Working in healthcare, I see what many unhealthy lifestyles end up as.

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Random Musings
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Random Musings » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:00 pm

Between this and the discounted stamp prices, I crunched the numbers and now will be able to retire 3 years earlier!! However, I'm concerned that these savings strategies will become well known, like small-value loading, and too many people will pile on to this strategy and these expected savings will disappear. Should I just stay the course with my current three healthy meals a day plan (breakfast, lunch and dinner) and avoid the cheese and stamp glue diversifiers? I know you Bogleheads will lead me down the right path.

RM
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cheese_breath
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by cheese_breath » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:05 pm

Is this name brand or Kirkland?
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

michaeljc70
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by michaeljc70 » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:11 pm

I read it is already sold out, so no need to calculate ROI unless you've bought already. Since people rave about their return policy, I am wondering if in 20 years you haven't needed it if you can return it.

Though I've never tried any of it, I have to imagine all that emergency food that last for a long time is horrible tasting.

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cheese_breath
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by cheese_breath » Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:29 pm

20 years is a long time to keep something without some kind of damage. Do you need to insure it?
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

yeahman
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by yeahman » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:59 am

One thing to consider is that in 20 years, you'll be an adult and will probably have grown out of Kraft Mac & Cheese.

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tmcc
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by tmcc » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:30 am

cheese_breath wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:29 pm
20 years is a long time to keep something without some kind of damage. Do you need to insure it?
Good call. I have a contact at Aon... maybe they can broker me reinsurance on my home owner's policy or stop loss policy in the event of spoilage

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ClevrChico
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by ClevrChico » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:42 am

There's a channel on Youtube where the host eats old army rations and smokes old ration cigarettes. I seem to remember him eating beef from a WW1 ration that was unopened. :D It's hard to imagine eating a cow that roamed the earth when your great grandparents were kids.

Twenty year old mac and cheese will seem very fresh in comparison.

On a serious note, I'm not a fan of buying in bulk. Heck a lot of restaurants find that buying in bulk is more costly in the end.
Last edited by ClevrChico on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:44 am

Wait.. Is this stuff the "emergency food" that is sold at Costco?

Broken Man 1999
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Elena
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Elena » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:49 am

cheese_breath wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:29 pm
20 years is a long time to keep something without some kind of damage. Do you need to insure it?
:D No umbrella policy will cover the cholesterol rain once you open the tub and pouches :D

Elena
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Elena » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:53 am

Canned food stored in oil has become the new "aged wine" in Europe. Producers have to stamp a date by law, but people are after "aged" or "vintage" cans, which are being traded at hefty prices (tuna, and serveral kinds of specialty meat and game).

http://fueradeserie.expansion.com/2014/ ... 17204.html

I suspect the Costco mayo will not be part of this trend.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:03 am

There is a good reason that many restaurants have mac&cheese on the menu. And, all of it isn't consumed by kids.

Horrible confession: I prefer the mac&cheese that has the dry "cheese" (or whatever the heck it really is) in a packet, with the straight pasta. Takes me back to my childhood when we weren't so well-heeled. Apparently we were upper-class poor as we didn't have to eat spam.

Hey, lobster mac&cheese is pretty tasty if you want to jazz it up a bit. My favorite BBQ place makes a really cheesy mac&cheese I get occasionally.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

quantAndHold
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by quantAndHold » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:45 am

Taking this question seriously for a second...I watched a TV show where NASA was working on food storage for long term space travel. It’s unlikely anything would be palatable after five years, much less 20. Anyway, it’s stored in 30 serving pouches. Once you open a pouch, you better be prepared to eat the entire pouch within a month or so. The macaroni would probably be good longer, but the cheese stuff would absorb moisture from the air every time you open the package.

Anyway, Kraft mac and cheese is available on Amazon for the same per serving price as the Costco tub.

Regardless, making your own mac and cheese using actual cheese is easy, and much, much tastier.

desafinado
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by desafinado » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:48 am

LookinAround wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:31 pm
Hmmm.. Is there a market for mac and cheese futures?
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricu ... heese.html

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cheese_breath
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by cheese_breath » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:49 am

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:03 am
....Horrible confession: I prefer the mac&cheese that has the dry "cheese" (or whatever the heck it really is) in a packet, with the straight pasta....
I grew up before the boxes with the pasta and cheese powder. We got ours from a can. I think the cheese powder version is much better.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

Trism
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Trism » Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:58 am

Until they discontinued it I was buying elbow macaroni in 10# bulk packaging from Fiber Gourmet (it's half fiber and half pasta, so it has ~40% fewer calories than regular macaroni).

You can buy cheese powder in bulk from Amazon. I can't taste the difference from Kraft's, but my M&C palate is fairly unfussy.

5 ounces of elbows + 1 ounces of cheese powder (plus a dab of butter and a splash of milk), and there you have lunch.

yeahman
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by yeahman » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:08 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:03 am
I prefer the mac&cheese that has the dry "cheese" (or whatever the heck it really is) in a packet
It's referred to in the industry as Orange No. 1.

2015
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by 2015 » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:51 pm

runner3081 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:26 pm
2015 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:04 pm
runner3081 wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:26 pm
It is very, very negative when you factor in health impacts.
Totally agree. OTOH, not everyone cares about the health impacts of their daily diet. Same goes for attention to exercise or lack thereof. This isn't a judgment. It's just that people have different priorities in life and are making choices based on those priorities.
Agree and I don't judge, it is their life.

Working in healthcare, I see what many unhealthy lifestyles end up as.
Indeed. What we might call missing the forest for the trees. Busy spending life seemingly pathologically obsessed with having the "perfect" asset allocation (for example), some miss the invisible, little things. Like a diet that kills rendering the asset allocation obsession superfluous.

Cycle
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Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Post by Cycle » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:19 pm

It's just too risky, the medical device companies may start offering a ZERO cost Mac and cheese subscription, and you've already locked yourself into a long term contract.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

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