Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

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investor997
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Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm

[UPDATE 10/31 - I bought the car. It's a done deal. FWIW, compromised and went with the non-Performance Long Range AWD model. Cost was about ~$13K less than if I'd ordered the full blown Performance version. I have zero regrets. -OP]

Fellow Bogleheads,

I made the mistake of test driving a Tesla Model 3 Performance this weekend. The car blew me away and now I want one.

I know that to most on this forum, anything above and beyond a Corolla or a Prius is a waste of money so I'll make an appeal to those like me who like fast cars and who might be able to sympathize... To that end, here's a current snapshot of "where I'm at":

Age: 45
Invested assets: ~$1M, 80/20
Emergency fund: $40K (online savings)
Home: no mortgage, property value ~$600K
Income: ~$160K
No kids
No debt

I also have an additional ~$40K cash set aside from the sale of a previous car that was planning to use to buy a new set of wheels. Until this weekend, I had my sights on a 2-3 year old Audi such as an A6 or an S4. Those are roughly $30K-$40K cars. I was also considering leasing a new S4 which would run about $700/month with minimal drive-off and adding the $40K to my "invested assets". Alas, the Tesla blows any of those Audis away. If you forgive the pun, I was "shocked" at how good it was.

The Model 3 Performance with Sport package is $70,200+tax+DMV. Call it ~$75K. With $40K down, a 48 month loan at 2.79% is about $785/mo. If I take delivery before 12/31/18, I'm eligible for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. That effectively knocks about 10 months off the loan. After 1/1/19, this drops to $3750, increasing the price of the car.

I'm not eligible for any other incentives other than a small kicker from my local utility that'll help offset the cost of installing a 240V outlet in my garage. I'm also not considering the "benefits" of fuel cost savings in any of this. I don't (presently) drive enough miles for it to matter.

So... am I crazy?
Last edited by investor997 on Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

stoptothink
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by stoptothink » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:05 pm

You can afford it by any rational metric. I do find it interesting that you were looking at spending $30k-40k on a car and now you are OK with spending $75k. I sure hope a vehicle costing twice as much would offer a better experience.

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matjen
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by matjen » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:16 pm

Think about the long term experience with a Tesla Model 3 not just a 15 minute drive.

1) They are horribly made. Take a look at the True Delta figures since Tesla won't give info to JD Power like the rest of the industry...wonder why that is? Tesla is way worse than the other brands (not just Toyota lets say). And this report ends in June 2018. The cars are brand new and stink! https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliabili ... ts/06-2018
2) Very few shops can really work on them as of now
3) The company is starting to circle the drain and has shed like 130 points in its stock price in the last several weeks (at 251 right now another 4% down)
4) The CEO is unstable
5) The company may still be under SEC and possibly DOJ investigation
6) There are competitors here or soon to be here including the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-Tron, and the Mercedes and Porsche Taycan
7) Check the forums but I believe there is a bit of a belief that basically most of the hardware is the same in the performance model and they are just unlocking some software. A big price premium for just that.


How will that car be serviced and maintained if the company fails or, as the case appears to be even now, can't sufficiently supply spare parts and maintenance? What will its resell value be?
Last edited by matjen on Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:38 pm, edited 4 times in total.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

PFInterest
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by PFInterest » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:17 pm

you should totally get it.

Point
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Point » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm

I’m loving my Rad Power Bike - electric, fat burning, easy to park, no insurance, no gas, loves hills, 40-60 miles in a charge. Environmental. Low cost.

mmmodem
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by mmmodem » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:31 pm

You can afford it so I'll make the case that you should buy it. I'm curious what you mean by fuel savings isn't worth it for the amount you drive. Savings is savings and it matters how much total you drive the vehicle, not what your annual mileage is. If you don't plan to drive more than 10k miles total, then I could see how fuel savings don't matter. Also, if you don't plan to drive a lot, consider you don't need to install a 240v outlet and trickle charge on a standard 110v

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/07/te ... ushing-it/

Anyway, here's an extrapolation calculation for true cost to own Model 3 versus a Camry. The cost to own overlaps depending on the trim and options. From a mid-level Camry to a top of the line Camry costs the same as a standard Model 3 all the way to a mid level Model 3. Any given Boglehead thread asking what car to buy will have a Camry or Accord on it.

mhalley
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by mhalley » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:46 pm

There are many electric vehicles coming out in the next few years. I would wait until competition makes a more mainstream electric affordable.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:49 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:05 pm
You can afford it by any rational metric. I do find it interesting that you were looking at spending $30k-40k on a car and now you are OK with spending $75k. I sure hope a vehicle costing twice as much would offer a better experience.
This is part of my conundrum.

A 2018/2019 Audi S4 - one of my candidates - has an MSRP in the low to mid $60K range when optioned the way I want. It's not *that* much less expensive than a loaded Model 3, especially after considering the federal tax credit for the Tesla. But I *do* frequent this board and I value showing a certain amount of financial discipline, thus my consideration of other well-reviewed cars that have already suffered 2-3 years of depreciation by someone else.

The Tesla is the priciest option, certainly up front, anyway. Is it worth it? Like I said, the test drive blew me away. From a driving involvement perspective, none of the German sport sedans are competitive. Even ignoring the ridiculous acceleration advantage of the Tesla, the way it steered, rode and went around corners shames the German stuff. That's the part that really surprised me.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:56 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:16 pm
Think about the long term experience with a Tesla Model 3 not just a 15 minute drive.

1) They are horribly made. Take a look at the True Delta figures since Tesla won't give info to JD Power like the rest of the industry...wonder why that is? Tesla is way worse than the other brands (not just Toyota lets say). And this report ends in June 2018. The cars are brand new and stink! https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliabili ... ts/06-2018
2) Very few shops can really work on them as of now
3) The company is starting to circle the drain and has shed like 130 points in its stock price in the last several weeks (at 251 right now another 4% down)
4) The CEO is unstable
5) The company may still be under SEC and possibly DOJ investigation
6) There are competitors here or soon to be here including the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-Tron, and the Mercedes and Porsche Taycan
7) Check the forums but I believe there is a bit of a belief that basically most of the hardware is the same in the performance model and they are just unlocking some software. A big price premium for just that.


How will that car be serviced and maintained if the company fails or, as the case appears to be even now, can't sufficiently supply spare parts and maintenance? What will its resell value be?
This is all another part of my conundrum. What happens after the company that built my $70K toy goes BK?

A part of me thinks someone - maybe the Chinese, maybe Apple, maybe GM, whoever- would scoop up the assets and keep the party going. Maybe that's just me being naive or overly optimistic. I think the thing to remember here is that *if* they go BK, it wouldn't be because they're building a crappy product that nobody's buying. Model 3s are popping up all over the place. After test driving one, I completely understand why. The product stands on its own merit and people want them. Alas, I'll stop now before this gets into a heated political discussion...

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Cycle
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Cycle » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Seems like a lot of money to be spending on a personal vehicle. I'd divert that money to retirement savings. Self driving fleets are coming very soon.

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:16 pm

How long would you plan to keep it? If you're out of warranty, would you be ok with the occasional $10k service because the drive unit bearings have toasted themselves (see a Rich Rebuilds Youtube video. Tesla replaces the entire drive unit (motor) while Rich got some better bearings and replaced just those).
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

bryanm
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bryanm » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm

I was recently in this position. I decided on the 2018 Leaf. It's not as nice as the Tesla, no doubt. But it ran me ~$30k after tax incentives, and I would say it's easily 50% of the car the Tesla is. So the decision comes down to whether the extra benefits of the Tesla are worth the $45k surcharge. For me, they weren't.

Slacker
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Slacker » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:22 pm

$1M assets?
Paid off $600K house?
$160K income?

It doesn't look like you typically live beyond your means and are irresponsible with your finances. In your position, if I wanted the Tesla I would buy the Tesla.

Personally, I couldn't compare the Jaguar I-Pace or any of the other mentioned SUVs to a sedan. If I wanted an electric sedan, I'd get an electric sedan and not a SUV, but I really don't like SUVs at all and will never buy one for my personal use and couldn't see how anyone seeking to buy sedans (A6, S4, Model 3) would want to drive around an SUV.

stan1
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by stan1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:26 pm

Since you are considering an S4 or a Tesla 3 Performance you obviously enjoy cars and would not be happy with a Corolla or Prius. You can afford to get a the Model 3 if you want it. I do agree that Mercedes and BMW will have some very compelling models out within two to three years. I would not want a Tesla 3 manufactured while Tesla is struggling to attain and maintain volume production goals.

The other point is that electric cars make the most sense economically when you have solar panels with a battery on your house. It sounds like you do not have that. You may be fortunate to live in a location with inexpensive electricity.

I would get the S4 especially if you are willing and able to find a CPO lease return or similar 2-3 year old car.
Last edited by stan1 on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bloom2708
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bloom2708 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:27 pm

Point wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:19 pm
I’m loving my Rad Power Bike - electric, fat burning, easy to park, no insurance, no gas, loves hills, 40-60 miles in a charge. Environmental. Low cost.
+1 a $2k Rad + a $25k car + $50k in your pocket. :wink:
"We are not here to please, but to provoke thoughtfulness." --Unknown Boglehead

bh7785
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bh7785 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:27 pm

I have a hard time figuring out why the "performance" version costs 30 grand more. That seems really hard to justify. I too am interested in getting a Model 3, but I'd much rather wait 2-3 years and see how they hold up before making a decision.

btenny
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by btenny » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:28 pm

I am sorry but IMO you do not have enough money saved to justify spending that much for a car. If you were making say $300K and had savings of say $2M to $3M then I would say go for it. But you just are not that rich for a guy who is 45. Go buy a lower cost car and keep saving that $700 per month.

Good Luck.

Longdog
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Longdog » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:31 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm
Fellow Bogleheads,

I made the mistake of test driving a Tesla Model 3 Performance this weekend. The car blew me away and now I want one.
Yep - that's how they get you.

I know that to most on this forum, anything above and beyond a Corolla or a Prius is a waste of money so I'll make an appeal to those like me who like fast cars and who might be able to sympathize...

So... am I crazy?
Yes. But I understand. I will ignore the commentary on pros/cons of buying a performance vehicle or specifically a Tesla, and offer this advice from a purely financial perspective. A car is a depreciating asset, so it is a waste of money. If you can pay for it in cash and it will not adversely impact your financial life, then buy it and satisfy your need for speed. If you cannot pay cash, then wait until you can.

But I know you're going to get it. See my initial response above. :)
Last edited by Longdog on Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:37 pm

bryanm wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm
I was recently in this position. I decided on the 2018 Leaf. It's not as nice as the Tesla, no doubt. But it ran me ~$30k after tax incentives, and I would say it's easily 50% of the car the Tesla is. So the decision comes down to whether the extra benefits of the Tesla are worth the $45k surcharge. For me, they weren't.
There's no way I'd be happy in a Leaf. It compares more closely to Corollas and Priuses, not S4s and 340is. Besides, if it's anything like the first-generation Leaf the depreciation will be so bad on them that after a few years I bet it won't cost much less to own than the Tesla. IMHO, compared to the Leaf, the Tesla is worth it.

pennylane
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by pennylane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:38 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:16 pm
Think about the long term experience with a Tesla Model 3 not just a 15 minute drive.

1) They are horribly made. Take a look at the True Delta figures since Tesla won't give info to JD Power like the rest of the industry...wonder why that is? Tesla is way worse than the other brands (not just Toyota lets say). And this report ends in June 2018. The cars are brand new and stink! https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliabili ... ts/06-2018
2) Very few shops can really work on them as of now
3) The company is starting to circle the drain and has shed like 130 points in its stock price in the last several weeks (at 251 right now another 4% down)
4) The CEO is unstable
5) The company may still be under SEC and possibly DOJ investigation
6) There are competitors here or soon to be here including the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-Tron, and the Mercedes and Porsche Taycan
7) Check the forums but I believe there is a bit of a belief that basically most of the hardware is the same in the performance model and they are just unlocking some software. A big price premium for just that.


How will that car be serviced and maintained if the company fails or, as the case appears to be even now, can't sufficiently supply spare parts and maintenance? What will its resell value be?
1. Reliability is sometimes luck of the draw and the vehicle will be under warranty anyway.
2. You don't take a new car to a "shop"
3. That's your opinion, people have been saying for years that Tesla was "circling the water"
4. Your opinion
5. "May" That is speculation, not facts
6. If you're comparing an Audi E-tron to a Model 3 performance, they don't even come close to comparing.
7. So? He's interested in the performance. Him getting the slower version still leaves him with a slower car. Its not like he can unlock the performance on his own

OP - You can afford the car. What is your goal? To be the richest man at the graveyard?

Do it. Arguably the safest car in the world, electric, ton of fun. Also, you'll be supporting a visionary and possibly one of the greatest thinkers of our time.

thatme
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by thatme » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 pm

bryanm wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm
I was recently in this position. I decided on the 2018 Leaf. It's not as nice as the Tesla, no doubt. But it ran me ~$30k after tax incentives, and I would say it's easily 50% of the car the Tesla is. So the decision comes down to whether the extra benefits of the Tesla are worth the $45k surcharge. For me, they weren't.
I picked up a 2017 Leaf last year for $12,500 + tax (brand new, after federal and state tax breaks and a discount from the local utility company). It's probably 40% of what the Tesla 3 is, for way less money. Fun to drive, but the EV interest begins to wear me out in the winter around here -- significantly reduced range and on certain days I have ~100 miles to drive between charges, despite my typical commute being 35 miles. Overall, I would purchase again, but I wouldn't drop $70K+ on a Tesla. I think there will be a lot of additional options in 2-3 years.

pennylane
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by pennylane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:56 pm
matjen wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:16 pm
Think about the long term experience with a Tesla Model 3 not just a 15 minute drive.

1) They are horribly made. Take a look at the True Delta figures since Tesla won't give info to JD Power like the rest of the industry...wonder why that is? Tesla is way worse than the other brands (not just Toyota lets say). And this report ends in June 2018. The cars are brand new and stink! https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliabili ... ts/06-2018
2) Very few shops can really work on them as of now
3) The company is starting to circle the drain and has shed like 130 points in its stock price in the last several weeks (at 251 right now another 4% down)
4) The CEO is unstable
5) The company may still be under SEC and possibly DOJ investigation
6) There are competitors here or soon to be here including the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-Tron, and the Mercedes and Porsche Taycan
7) Check the forums but I believe there is a bit of a belief that basically most of the hardware is the same in the performance model and they are just unlocking some software. A big price premium for just that.


How will that car be serviced and maintained if the company fails or, as the case appears to be even now, can't sufficiently supply spare parts and maintenance? What will its resell value be?
This is all another part of my conundrum. What happens after the company that built my $70K toy goes BK?

A part of me thinks someone - maybe the Chinese, maybe Apple, maybe GM, whoever- would scoop up the assets and keep the party going. Maybe that's just me being naive or overly optimistic. I think the thing to remember here is that *if* they go BK, it wouldn't be because they're building a crappy product that nobody's buying. Model 3s are popping up all over the place. After test driving one, I completely understand why. The product stands on its own merit and people want them. Alas, I'll stop now before this gets into a heated political discussion...
Ask anyone who owns one what they think and you'll get the same answer 98% of the time. People LOVE this car. If the company goes BK, someone will scoop up and deliver this to the market, its a good product.

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baconavocado
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by baconavocado » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm

Went to a wedding recently. The bride's parents had just bought a new Tesla Mod 3. Her extended family was all over the dance floor, draining the kegs, having a good time. The groom's parents (related to us) had just bought a 4-year old Prius with low miles. His extended family, much smaller, were barely seen on the dance floor, all were talking in small circles.

Texanbybirth
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Texanbybirth » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:43 pm

Yeah, you're crazy. Wait till you're 50 and have saved more money. It's too much for you to spend on a car right now with your income/assets.

(Though, you'll probably still get the car because it's not clear what you're driving now if you sold another car for $40k. Is it a Corolla? :-) I had to...)

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:45 pm

bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:27 pm
+1 a $2k Rad + a $25k car + $50k in your pocket. :wink:
Leave it to Bogleheads to suggest a bicycle with an electric motor would somehow make a viable alternative to an automobile...

FYI: I do have a pretty nice bike. It's a Santa Cruz Tallboy mountain bike and I ride it exclusively on off-road trails. Riding on the road may work for some folks but not for me.

Trivia tidbit: With the rear seats folded, the Model 3 will carry the bike inside no problem.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:52 pm

As much as I'm an anti-fan of Tesla.....comparisons saying a Leaf is a reasonable substitute for a Tesla anything is just silly. A comparison of that comparison in ICE cars is that a Corolla is 40% the car that a GT-3RS is. No......just no. It's zero percent.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:53 pm

Texanbybirth wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:43 pm
Yeah, you're crazy. Wait till you're 50 and have saved more money. It's too much for you to spend on a car right now with your income/assets.

(Though, you'll probably still get the car because it's not clear what you're driving now if you sold another car for $40k. Is it a Corolla? :-) I had to...)
No, I didn't sell a Corolla for $40K. :) Truth be told, it was a 2010 Porsche 911. A great car, but one that morphed into a garage queen because it was too impractical. I couldn't use it to carry my MTB to the trailhead so instead, 99% of the time I drove my 2004 Toyota 4Runner instead. Yes, I know what you're all thinking.. OMG, this dude's insane, he had TWO cars?! Yeah, maybe, but the 4Runner costs me essentially nothing in terms of maintenance and depreciation. I'm just tired of driving it everywhere. The Model 3 will carry a bike inside the car with the rear seats folded so it will be driven much more often than the Porsche ever was, and it was shockingly fun to drive. As fun as the 997 was.

If I buy the Tesla I'll probably also sell my 4Runner. That'd be another $10K back in my direction.

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BoglePaul
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by BoglePaul » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:56 pm

I feel like the 3 is more of a prototype and like the Model S, may note age well beyond 5 years. If u really want electric, consider a used i3. My friend purchase one 4 years old w/ 30k miles for 65% off MSRP.

bloom2708
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bloom2708 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:59 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:45 pm
bloom2708 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:27 pm
+1 a $2k Rad + a $25k car + $50k in your pocket. :wink:
Leave it to Bogleheads to suggest a bicycle with an electric motor would somehow make a viable alternative to an automobile...

FYI: I do have a pretty nice bike. It's a Santa Cruz Tallboy mountain bike and I ride it exclusively on off-road trails. Riding on the road may work for some folks but not for me.

Trivia tidbit: With the rear seats folded, the Model 3 will carry the bike inside no problem.
I never mentioned a bike as a "viable alternative". People ask why I bike to work? I want to. It is good for me. It is fun. I am disappointed when I have to drive to work. This is exactly the opposite of what most expect. Get a car that is just "meh" to drive. Maybe you won't "desire" to drive it so much. I love my car so much I want to drive and drive and drive and drive and drive. Yes, I have a car. It is "meh" to drive. It works out just fine, except when it is pouring rain out like today. :annoyed
Last edited by bloom2708 on Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"We are not here to please, but to provoke thoughtfulness." --Unknown Boglehead

stan1
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by stan1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:04 pm

Keep the 4Runner for weekend fun. Don't mess up the nice car by putting bikes or bags of manure in it, or off-roading it.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:04 pm

thatme wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 pm
I picked up a 2017 Leaf last year for $12,500 + tax (brand new, after federal and state tax breaks and a discount from the local utility company). It's probably 40% of what the Tesla 3 is, for way less money. Fun to drive, but the EV interest begins to wear me out in the winter around here -- significantly reduced range and on certain days I have ~100 miles to drive between charges, despite my typical commute being 35 miles. Overall, I would purchase again, but I wouldn't drop $70K+ on a Tesla. I think there will be a lot of additional options in 2-3 years.
I just don't see how a Leaf is even remotely comparable to a Model 3 Performance. Like the other poster mentioned, that's like saying a Corolla is comparable to a Porsche GT3 because they both run on gasoline.

The Tesla costs more but you also get WAY more. It has twice the range and an extensive charging network.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by thx1138 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:12 pm

Clearly you like cars and so want to allocate more dollars than “necessary” to them. Nothing wrong with that. Under that assumption the only things financially different with a 3 compared to other options seems to me:

- You can’t get a used one so you will be taking the depreciation hit of a new car. If your alternatives are also new cars then no real difference I suspect.

- Uncertainty and volatility in depreciation compared to other options. If you swap cars frequently this matters, if you own them until essentially fully depreciated then no difference.

- Uncertainty in long term maintenance due to company stability. This is sort of the complement to the previous point. Doesn’t matter much if you switch often, more of a risk if you keep for a long time.

To me those differences are not particularly huge when it comes to a depreciating luxury asset. They are all a “waste” in purely utilitarian terms so if one is slightly more wasteful or risky than other options it really pales in comparison to making the “luxury” choice in the first place. Once you’ve made that choice then go for what is making you happy and it sure sounds like that is the 3.

FWIW I know someone with a 3 and has a huge smile whenever they are near it. I’ve never been interested in cars so seems odd to me but clearly makes him super happy. I also know I have hobbies and interests that are most definitely not necessities but cost time and money which are utterly perplexing to others.

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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by thatme » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:17 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:04 pm
thatme wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:40 pm
I picked up a 2017 Leaf last year for $12,500 + tax (brand new, after federal and state tax breaks and a discount from the local utility company). It's probably 40% of what the Tesla 3 is, for way less money. Fun to drive, but the EV interest begins to wear me out in the winter around here -- significantly reduced range and on certain days I have ~100 miles to drive between charges, despite my typical commute being 35 miles. Overall, I would purchase again, but I wouldn't drop $70K+ on a Tesla. I think there will be a lot of additional options in 2-3 years.
I just don't see how a Leaf is even remotely comparable to a Model 3 Performance. Like the other poster mentioned, that's like saying a Corolla is comparable to a Porsche GT3 because they both run on gasoline.

The Tesla costs more but you also get WAY more. It has twice the range and an extensive charging network.
Using torque figures as a comparison figure:

Corolla - 128 lb-ft
Leaf -- 236 lb-ft
Tesla 3 - 307 lb-ft

You shouldn't go out and buy a Leaf because you clearly don't want one, but it's not as far off as you might imagine in terms of a key performance metric. It's zippy as hell off the line. No, not Telsa Ludicrous mode or whatever, but it's fun to drive and particularly to accelerate.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:28 pm

thatme wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:17 pm
Using torque figures as a comparison figure:

Corolla - 128 lb-ft
Leaf -- 236 lb-ft
Tesla 3 - 307 lb-ft

You shouldn't go out and buy a Leaf because you clearly don't want one, but it's not as far off as you might imagine in terms of a key performance metric. It's zippy as hell off the line. No, not Telsa Ludicrous mode or whatever, but it's fun to drive and particularly to accelerate.
The Model 3 Performance has 450hp and 471 lb-ft. Sorry, but it's not even close. Also, if I wanted to take a Model 3 on a weekend trip to Paso Robles or Las Vegas, I wouldn't even think twice thanks to its range and Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure. It would simply not be possible to use the Leaf in this scenario.

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tyrion
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by tyrion » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:33 pm

baconavocado wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Went to a wedding recently. The bride's parents had just bought a new Tesla Mod 3. Her extended family was all over the dance floor, draining the kegs, having a good time. The groom's parents (related to us) had just bought a 4-year old Prius with low miles. His extended family, much smaller, were barely seen on the dance floor, all were talking in small circles.
I'm honestly curious what you're trying to convey with this anecdote.

Fun people would own a Tesla?
People who like to party and have a good time are more likely to own a Tesla?
Prius owners and their kin are boring?
Prius owners and their kin prefer talking to dancing?

piperkub
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by piperkub » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:55 pm

Ok,
I've got to chime in... I'm considering a similar situation. I want something fast and fun to enjoy around 60-100k. But I also need a truck, SUV to haul the dog, surfboard, golf clubs, and a foursome on those other days, a fishing car. I've enjoyed both the past four years; I leased a new Lexus and I kept my older (owned) SUV. But, instead of buying 100k dream car, I leased it for 889.00 a mo for 2 years, then at no expense upgraded again to a newer Lexus again for two more years. I really enjoy driving a current cutting-edge car always under warranty and no maintenance. Meanwhile, I reinvested the 80k I would have spent on buying the dream car into the Vanguard two fund portfolio and has done very nicely earning money rather than collecting depreciation in my driveway and almost pays for the lease. Like you, I don't drive that much, maybe 6,000 a year on the Lexus and keeping the old SUV for the hauling duty and only drive it around 4,000 a year. I'm not saying this is for everyone, but it does allow you to enjoy a high-end car and still have the fishing car while keeping your capital invested. I'm at the end of the second lease and shopping for something else to lease, I'm lusting for a Tesla S and if Elon quits or the company goes under, I'll just give it back to them in two years.
Yes, I know the hardcore bogleheads are grimacing at such a crazy scheme, but sometimes you just have to enjoy some of what you've earned. Yes, I could easily get by with just the SUV and easily invest the 12,000 a year saving it for my family so they can all have a new Teslas after I'm gone. But I'd like mine now...
My vote is to do it and enjoy your success!

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DanMahowny
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by DanMahowny » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:01 pm

OP- There is no doubt you can afford a model 3. I'd recommend a model S if you are going to buy a Tesla.

But, Tesla will enter bankruptcy before the calendar reaches 2019. No doubt about it. If you're okay with that, buy the car. Enjoy it man.

Nice financial stats too. Well done.
Funding secured

bryanm
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by bryanm » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:01 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:37 pm
bryanm wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:20 pm
I was recently in this position. I decided on the 2018 Leaf. It's not as nice as the Tesla, no doubt. But it ran me ~$30k after tax incentives, and I would say it's easily 50% of the car the Tesla is. So the decision comes down to whether the extra benefits of the Tesla are worth the $45k surcharge. For me, they weren't.
There's no way I'd be happy in a Leaf. It compares more closely to Corollas and Priuses, not S4s and 340is. Besides, if it's anything like the first-generation Leaf the depreciation will be so bad on them that after a few years I bet it won't cost much less to own than the Tesla. IMHO, compared to the Leaf, the Tesla is worth it.
You should not buy a Leaf, that seems clear! You're right, it's more comparable to a Corolla or Prius. It's a bit more zippy, but I unabashedly didn't buy it for the fun. I'm stuck in traffic for 90% of my driving. If I want fun, I'll spend 45k on a track car. But that's just me, and if the surcharge for the Tesla is worth it for you, go for it!

(Your note about range is also true. We have a second car for road trips. The leaf is just for my commute.)

thatme
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by thatme » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:10 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:28 pm
thatme wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:17 pm
Using torque figures as a comparison figure:

Corolla - 128 lb-ft
Leaf -- 236 lb-ft
Tesla 3 - 307 lb-ft

You shouldn't go out and buy a Leaf because you clearly don't want one, but it's not as far off as you might imagine in terms of a key performance metric. It's zippy as hell off the line. No, not Telsa Ludicrous mode or whatever, but it's fun to drive and particularly to accelerate.
The Model 3 Performance has 450hp and 471 lb-ft. Sorry, but it's not even close. Also, if I wanted to take a Model 3 on a weekend trip to Paso Robles or Las Vegas, I wouldn't even think twice thanks to its range and Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure. It would simply not be possible to use the Leaf in this scenario.
Fair enough, I just googled torque Tesla 3 and that's what I came up, I'm not in the weeds to know the various packages. I'm sure what I found is the base model at the low low price of $50K. Sheesh. And you're right about the range, it's an issue. Luckily we have my wife's car when needed for longer trips.

aristotelian
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by aristotelian » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:12 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm

No kids
No debt


So... am I crazy?
You can do whatever you damn please.

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baconavocado
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by baconavocado » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:23 pm

tyrion wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:33 pm
baconavocado wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:41 pm
Went to a wedding recently. The bride's parents had just bought a new Tesla Mod 3. Her extended family was all over the dance floor, draining the kegs, having a good time. The groom's parents (related to us) had just bought a 4-year old Prius with low miles. His extended family, much smaller, were barely seen on the dance floor, all were talking in small circles.
I'm honestly curious what you're trying to convey with this anecdote.

Fun people would own a Tesla?
People who like to party and have a good time are more likely to own a Tesla?
Prius owners and their kin are boring?
Prius owners and their kin prefer talking to dancing?
I wasn't trying to convey anything or make any judgments. My wife remarked to me about the differences in the two families (which I hadn't noticed) and I thought it was funny and insightful. Although I'm sort of a used Prius guy myself, I really like bride and her family.

RobLyons
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by RobLyons » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:31 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm
Fellow Bogleheads,

I made the mistake of test driving a Tesla Model 3 Performance this weekend. The car blew me away and now I want one.

I know that to most on this forum, anything above and beyond a Corolla or a Prius is a waste of money so I'll make an appeal to those like me who like fast cars and who might be able to sympathize... To that end, here's a current snapshot of "where I'm at":

Age: 45
Invested assets: ~$1M, 80/20
Emergency fund: $40K (online savings)
Home: no mortgage, property value ~$600K
Income: ~$160K
No kids
No debt

I also have an additional ~$40K cash set aside from the sale of a previous car that was planning to use to buy a new set of wheels. Until this weekend, I had my sights on a 2-3 year old Audi such as an A6 or an S4. Those are roughly $30K-$40K cars. I was also considering leasing a new S4 which would run about $700/month with minimal drive-off and adding the $40K to my "invested assets". Alas, the Tesla blows any of those Audis away. If you forgive the pun, I was "shocked" at how good it was.

The Model 3 Performance with Sport package is $70,200+tax+DMV. Call it ~$75K. With $40K down, a 48 month loan at 2.79% is about $785/mo. If I take delivery before 12/31/18, I'm eligible for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. That effectively knocks about 10 months off the loan. After 1/1/19, this drops to $3750, increasing the price of the car.

I'm not eligible for any other incentives other than a small kicker from my local utility that'll help offset the cost of installing a 240V outlet in my garage. I'm also not considering the "benefits" of fuel cost savings in any of this. I don't (presently) drive enough miles for it to matter.

So... am I crazy?


I'm one of the most conservative / cheap people you would ever meet. But even I cannot find a good reason for you not to buy a Tesla 3. Age 45 with no kids, no debt, and $1.6M between investments and home equity? You could afford a much greater vehicle. P100D?
Others that you could easily afford, from google...
McLaren 720S
Ferrari 488 GTB
Lamborghini Huracan Performante
Ferrari 812 Superfast
Porsche 911 GT2 RS
Audi R8 V10 Plus
Ford GT


So you should have no worries. Let's not make this overly OCD. Go buy what you want and enjoy.
"Success in investing doesn’t correlate with IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control urges that get other people in trouble investing" - Buffett

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steve50
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by steve50 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:45 pm

First of all Tesla is a non-boglehead approved car ($$). But if you can afford it and not stretching yourself financially, I would highly recommend it to anyone.

Buying Tesla 3 has been one of my best purchase ever. It is worth every penny I spent on it. I have owned Japanese and German car before, but Tesla is completely different. Even after few months of owning it, I still have that big smile on my face and that wow factor every time I see it and ride the car. I test drove other cars in the same price range+, but no other car comes even close.

Ignore all the negative news you see out there. There are lot of big money games being played by wall street to manipulate the stock price and they have way of controlling the news you see out there.

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matjen
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by matjen » Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:56 pm

steve50 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:45 pm

Ignore all the negative news you see out there. There are lot of big money games being played by wall street to manipulate the stock price and they have way of controlling the news you see out there.
This is a parody right? I mean you are making fun of the cult right?

No? Well just to be clear ELON MUSK was just canned as Chairman, has been forced to find some actual independent board members, and has to have all his tweets reviewed. Somehow you are blaming Wall St. for manipulating the stock. The SEC doesn't see it that way. Unbelievable.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226
-Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
-Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
-Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
-Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.
Last edited by matjen on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:01 pm

RobLyons wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:31 pm
I'm one of the most conservative / cheap people you would ever meet. But even I cannot find a good reason for you not to buy a Tesla 3. Age 45 with no kids, no debt, and $1.6M between investments and home equity? You could afford a much greater vehicle. P100D?
Others that you could easily afford, from google...
McLaren 720S
Ferrari 488 GTB
Lamborghini Huracan Performante
Ferrari 812 Superfast
Porsche 911 GT2 RS
Audi R8 V10 Plus
Ford GT


So you should have no worries. Let's not make this overly OCD. Go buy what you want and enjoy.
I have a hard time telling if this is a joke or not. You're listing cars that cost upwards of a half million dollars. I suppose a case could be made for the Porsche 911 GT2 RS provided I could buy it for MSRP and store it in a hermetically sealed chamber for 20 years, at which time it'll be worth who knows how much...

mouses
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by mouses » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:07 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:56 pm
steve50 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 3:45 pm

Ignore all the negative news you see out there. There are lot of big money games being played by wall street to manipulate the stock price and they have way of controlling the news you see out there.
This is a parody right? I mean you are making fun of the cult right?

No? Well just to be clear ELON MUSK was just canned as Chairman, has been forced to find some actual independent board members, and has to have all his tweets reviewed. Somehow you are blaming Wall St. for manipulating the stock. Unbelievable.

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2018-226
-Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
-Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
-Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
-Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.
There are a lot of short sellers apparently doing their best to harm the company.

My brother is queued up for a Tesla. He is a smart guy. I say go for it, life is short.

srt7
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by srt7 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:08 pm

investor997 wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:01 pm
Fellow Bogleheads,

I made the mistake of test driving a Tesla Model 3 Performance this weekend. The car blew me away and now I want one.

I know that to most on this forum, anything above and beyond a Corolla or a Prius is a waste of money so I'll make an appeal to those like me who like fast cars and who might be able to sympathize... To that end, here's a current snapshot of "where I'm at":

Age: 45
Invested assets: ~$1M, 80/20
Emergency fund: $40K (online savings)
Home: no mortgage, property value ~$600K
Income: ~$160K
No kids
No debt

I also have an additional ~$40K cash set aside from the sale of a previous car that was planning to use to buy a new set of wheels. Until this weekend, I had my sights on a 2-3 year old Audi such as an A6 or an S4. Those are roughly $30K-$40K cars. I was also considering leasing a new S4 which would run about $700/month with minimal drive-off and adding the $40K to my "invested assets". Alas, the Tesla blows any of those Audis away. If you forgive the pun, I was "shocked" at how good it was.

The Model 3 Performance with Sport package is $70,200+tax+DMV. Call it ~$75K. With $40K down, a 48 month loan at 2.79% is about $785/mo. If I take delivery before 12/31/18, I'm eligible for the full $7,500 federal tax credit. That effectively knocks about 10 months off the loan. After 1/1/19, this drops to $3750, increasing the price of the car.

I'm not eligible for any other incentives other than a small kicker from my local utility that'll help offset the cost of installing a 240V outlet in my garage. I'm also not considering the "benefits" of fuel cost savings in any of this. I don't (presently) drive enough miles for it to matter.

So... am I crazy?
If you're okay purchasing a used Audi then why not get yourself a "proper" Tesla for the same money? I am talking a CPO Tesla Model S.

There ... I talked you out of buying a Tesla Model 3 :wink:
Last edited by srt7 on Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I can't think of anything more luxurious than owning my time. - remomnyc

209south
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by 209south » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:09 pm

I am picking up my Model 3 later this week, but am getting the mid-range version - $55k with dual-motors, 0-60 in 4.6s, 310mile range - that is same price and performance as an S4 (my current car) before considering rebate and NJ sales tax waiver. To repeat, THE MODEL 3 IS CHEAPER TO BUY than it's best comp (the S4) before considering massive fuel and maintenance savings. The high-performance version you are looking at comps to the RS4 or similar, not the S4. Tesla cars are the highest-rated, best-performing, safest cars on the road. The probability of them going bankrupt is de minimus, and if it happened every car company in the world (+ google and apple) would compete to pick up the pieces with zero disruption - Musk isn't perfect, but neither were Jobs or Branson, they just happen to be visionaries disrupting massive businesses.

investor997
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by investor997 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:17 pm

209south wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:09 pm
I am picking up my Model 3 later this week, but am getting the mid-range version - $55k with dual-motors, 0-60 in 4.6s, 310mile range - that is same price and performance as an S4 (my current car) before considering rebate and NJ sales tax waiver. To repeat, THE MODEL 3 IS CHEAPER TO BUY than it's best comp (the S4) before considering massive fuel and maintenance savings. The high-performance version you are looking at comps to the RS4 or similar, not the S4. Tesla cars are the highest-rated, best-performing, safest cars on the road. The probability of them going bankrupt is de minimus, and if it happened every car company in the world (+ google and apple) would compete to pick up the pieces with zero disruption - Musk isn't perfect, but neither were Jobs or Branson, they just happen to be visionaries disrupting massive businesses.
Were you able to compare the Performance version against the mid-range version you're buying? I would have liked to have test driven each but the Tesla store near me - perhaps conveniently - only had the top-line Performance/Performance version available. If I knew for sure I'd be satisfied with the $55K version this thread wouldn't even be here and the car would be on order already. I'm just trying to justify the extra expense to make it go 0-60 in 3.5 seconds. It's stupid and irrational, but then again, so is anything beyond a Corolla or a Prius, right?

209south
Posts: 473
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Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

Post by 209south » Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:19 pm

I haven't test driven either, but my S4 is already too fast for my wife so I know I don't want the faster Tesla!

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