Test your cognitive biases

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VictoriaF
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Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:02 pm

Here is a good test of your cognitive biases, aka irrationality:

Start reading the BBC feature at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2018081 ... ncertainty and click on "Click here to measure your risk literacy."

I have scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates" but that does not count because I knew the basis of all questions.

What is your score?

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

ResearchMed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ResearchMed » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:18 pm

Thanks. That was interesting.

The same result.

Interesting that some of those questions/answers were subjective.
(Actually, most were, as the quantitative question/answer types also had a secondary subjective component.)

How does one score "better" than others on that type of question?
Is it "better" to be "more sure".. or "less"? Does that matter if one is "correct" (at least, for the quantitative questions)?

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:22 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:18 pm
Thanks. That was interesting.

The same result.

Interesting that some of those questions/answers were subjective.
(Actually, most were, as the quantitative question/answer types also had a secondary subjective component.)

How does one score "better" than others on that type of question?
Is it "better" to be "more sure".. or "less"? Does that matter if one is "correct" (at least, for the quantitative questions)?

RM
Congratulations with the top result!

The subjective tests are of your overconfidence (or, rarely, underconfidence).

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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grabiner
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by grabiner » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:31 pm

I also got the top score. As a mathematician, I understand how probabilites work, and I know about the cognitive biases in the risk questions. (At the level of money in these questions, I am close to risk-neutral, so I can go by expected value.)
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:31 pm

Same result - top score.

I wonder if anyone actually receives less? Or is that just my cognitive bias showing? I was a math major in college for a while.
Maybe someone will admit to receiving less than the top score...
Last edited by JoeRetire on Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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slayed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by slayed » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:35 pm

same here, got the "This is the highest score one can receive on this test."

i thought the questions were overly simplistic tbh.

ResearchMed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ResearchMed » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm

Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by CuriousTacos » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm

At the end of the test, there is a link to www.riskliteracy.org. At that site, they have a statistical and risk literacy test that is just two questions (which are similar to the first two questions of the OU quiz), then a results page that is identical to the one at the OU site.

So I think the quiz at the OU site determines your risk/statistical literacy based on their first two questions, then asks a bunch of other questions for their own research.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I think we have found the evidence of the Bogleheads superiority.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:52 pm

In the mean time, I took a test of cognitive speed at http://www.testmybrain.org/ with the results as follows:

Flanker Task
Your score is related to the efficiency of your responses (speed and accuracy) in the test. A higher score means better performance. In other words, the higher your score, the better you were at ignoring the other arrows to respond to the central arrow quickly and accurately.

Your score was 47.
The average score for a 20 year old is 44.00
The average score for a 45 year old is 42.00
The average score for a 65 year old is 38.00

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by HermosaSurfer » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:55 pm

I received a top score as well.

Perhaps we've demonstrated that people who will sit through a 10 minute statistical quiz probably aren't frustrated by statistics. I'll admit I had to light up some brain cells that I've left dormant for 18 years.

Thanks for sharing.

ResearchMed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ResearchMed » Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:57 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm
ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I think we have found the evidence of the Bogleheads superiority.

Victoria
Or is it response bias.
Not to the test, but to this thread :wink:

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by peppers » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:00 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
OK I'll play


Scored better than 25 to 50 percent of college graduates.

Not too bad for a college drop out.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:01 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:52 pm
In the mean time, I took a test of cognitive speed at http://www.testmybrain.org/ with the results as follows:

Flanker Task
Your score is related to the efficiency of your responses (speed and accuracy) in the test. A higher score means better performance. In other words, the higher your score, the better you were at ignoring the other arrows to respond to the central arrow quickly and accurately.

Your score was 47.
The average score for a 20 year old is 44.00
The average score for a 45 year old is 42.00
The average score for a 65 year old is 38.00

Victoria
I retook the test and got 52. I feel better now.

Victoria
Last edited by VictoriaF on Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by MP173 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm

I scored at a level of 25 - 50% so...I guess risk assessment is not my cup of tea.

Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.

Interesting test. Thanks for pointing it out.

Ed

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VictoriaF
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:12 pm

MP173 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.
The "rational" response is to maximize the expected value, which is the product of the payoff and its probability.

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

ResearchMed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ResearchMed » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:27 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:12 pm
MP173 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.
The "rational" response is to maximize the expected value, which is the product of the payoff and its probability.

Victoria
Yes, *BUT*... if might be "rational in terms of expected value" (as in, the average of the possible outcomes) but some people are just risk averse, and don't want to "risk" a bigger loss - or perhaps really cannot afford it.

I might prefer to know my loss is capped, rather than risk a bigger loss, along with a chance of no loss (or a smaller loss), etc.
I wouldn't consider that "irrational", unless "rational" is DEFINED as "outcome consistent with expected value maximization" or such. And life is not always like that...

I've always had trouble with some of these "choices" and the way they are "scored".

What is more interesting (to me, anyway) is when the probabilities are the same, but the choices are phrased as something like 25% of a bad outcome in one word problem, and 75% of a good outcome, both under the same scenario, so what is really measured is more of the effect of terminology, and not any genuine difference in underlying risk.

RM
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by jhfenton » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:27 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm
ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I think we have found the evidence of the Bogleheads superiority.

Victoria
Was that ever in doubt? :sharebeer

I also received top marks. I believe most non-Bogleheads would get tripped up on the initial probability questions that form the basis of your score. (I assume the gain/loss aversion and confidence questions are there to see whether answers to those are influenced by higher numeracy and are not factored into the reported score.)

If too many Bogleheads take the quiz, you might be responsible for skewing their data. 8-)

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by alfaspider » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:35 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:12 pm
MP173 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.
The "rational" response is to maximize the expected value, which is the product of the payoff and its probability.

Victoria
I got the perfect score, but I can understand how the “rational” response might be less so depending on personal circumstances.

For example, there is a question about less money now or more later. What if the money now is the only thing that would save you from eviction? Also, the question presumes a relatively reasonable discount rate. What if there is a period of hyperinflation? I knew what they were trying to test, so I wasn’t swayed, but I can easily understand how one might be.

Also, I am relatively well off, so the amounts involved were not material to my overall financial health. But what if we added a few zeros? The guaranteed loss vs likely loss question looks a bit different if the lower certain loss amount would still wipe you out.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Tdubs » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:53 pm

CuriousTacos wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm
At the end of the test, there is a link to www.riskliteracy.org. At that site, they have a statistical and risk literacy test that is just two questions (which are similar to the first two questions of the OU quiz), then a results page that is identical to the one at the OU site.

So I think the quiz at the OU site determines your risk/statistical literacy based on their first two questions, then asks a bunch of other questions for their own research.
Yep, got the same perfect score on both versions. So most of the OU quiz is meaningless?

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Starfish » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:54 pm

I have got maximum score for a test that is of about primary school difficulty (3rd grade maybe? I have a friend and she gives me her daughter problems for my kid, they seem harder) in my country... not a big achievement.
I kept waiting for the trick question.
Last edited by Starfish on Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by telecaster » Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:54 pm

My results:

Congratulations on completing your statistical and risk literacy test!
Your numeracy score is better than about 75-100% of all college educated individuals. Roughly, this means that out of every 100 people who take the test, you will do better than about 90% (90 people) of all other people. This is the highest score one can receive on this test.

I admit ... this brought me back to sitting in my probability and statistics class in college. I could see and smell the room once again even though that was many many moons ago.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Starfish » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:00 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:12 pm
MP173 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.
The "rational" response is to maximize the expected value, which is the product of the payoff and its probability.

Victoria
That is a tricky one.
Is this a one in a lifetime opportunity? Should it be taken in isolation?
If I always take the higher expected value in a bet, they add up statistically. If I take a single bet in life, I should go with the smaller variance but I could take some kind of bet very often.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Agcentral » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:48 pm

I apologize to the Bogle master family as I am afraid I embarrassed the group… I’m in the 25-50% quartile.
As you can see, I managed to drag the group down with my poor test results.

Still… I think you high scoring folks owe me a Thank You as (just like in high school where the results of the test curves are set) someone has to ride the bottom to make you look good.

Happy for you, ashamed at myself. Somethings never change.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by grabiner » Wed Aug 22, 2018 9:54 pm

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:27 pm
VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:12 pm
MP173 wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm
Was this a test of personal preferences (such as $100 sure thing vs the probability of a higher result)? Or was it based on probability alone. I will take the $100 sure thing all the time, even tho the risk is higher for the other. Personal preference completely, even tho the odds were in the other choice.
The "rational" response is to maximize the expected value, which is the product of the payoff and its probability.

Victoria
Yes, *BUT*... if might be "rational in terms of expected value" (as in, the average of the possible outcomes) but some people are just risk averse, and don't want to "risk" a bigger loss - or perhaps really cannot afford it.
And that is also rational. Most Bogleheads don't have 100% of their portfolios in stock, even though that has the highest expected value, because the loss from losing 60% (as happened in 2007-2009) is much more significant than the benefit for gaining 60%. But...
What is more interesting (to me, anyway) is when the probabilities are the same, but the choices are phrased as something like 25% of a bad outcome in one word problem, and 75% of a good outcome, both under the same scenario, so what is really measured is more of the effect of terminology, and not any genuine difference in underlying risk.
And that is irrational.

The study doesn't say how it is scored, but someone who made the risk-averse choice to two differently-worded scenarios should also get a good score for avoiding cognitive bias. (In particular, that would be rational for someone who is poor and thus views losing £200 as a severe loss.)
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siamond
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by siamond » Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:45 pm

CuriousTacos wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:48 pm
At the end of the test, there is a link to www.riskliteracy.org. At that site, they have a statistical and risk literacy test that is just two questions (which are similar to the first two questions of the OU quiz), then a results page that is identical to the one at the OU site.

So I think the quiz at the OU site determines your risk/statistical literacy based on their first two questions, then asks a bunch of other questions for their own research.
You are a smart dude (or dudette). Didn't think of that. You might very well be right.

Yeah, ok, got a top score too with the OP's test. I didn't find it very interesting nor terribly well designed, to be honest. But hey, it feels good to be on an even level with Queen Victoria, at least for one test. I have no illusion though, I know very well this was a fluke... :wink:

Then I tried the other test, the Flanker thing Victoria mentioned. I felt like I messed it up pretty good to begin with, then got the hang of it... Got 47 at the end (and 50 when trying again). It's really annoying when your finger already moved and your brain realizes this is a mistake and it's too late to correct... the classic Gut vs. Head syndrome.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:35 am

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:31 pm
Same result - top score.

I wonder if anyone actually receives less? Or is that just my cognitive bias showing? I was a math major in college for a while.
Maybe someone will admit to receiving less than the top score...
I only answered the first two questions, did not answer the rest and it too said I had the top score.... sounds fishy to me.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Iridium » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:26 am

VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:02 pm
Start reading the BBC feature at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2018081 ... ncertainty and click on "Click here to measure your risk literacy."
From the article, not the test, can anyone explain why 1 is supposed to be the correct answer to the toothpaste question and not 2? If you are responding to an advertisement comparing a toothpaste brand to other types of toothpaste, it would be logical to assume you use toothpaste. So, answer #1, which will include everyone who does not use toothpaste at all seems irrelevant. #2 at least limits the population to just to folks who use the other toothpaste, although it is weird to limit it to people who chose to be use toothpaste 'for the same purpose'. If folks reason for using is to prevent cavities or improve breath, I am not sure why you would exclude them, but it is still less wrong than looking at the risk of gum disease in a population that includes both folks who use toothpaste and those who do not.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by jumppilot » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:42 am

Here’s an interesting video along the same lines of this test:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by bjames310 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:45 am

I scored in the bottom 25%. It made me feel terrible st first, but then I remembered ...

I also did terrible on the LSATs (which arguably judge how well you’ll do in law school), graduated in the top 5% of my law school class from a top 60 ranked program, and have worked at a Vault 10 biglaw firm for eight years. Also went to the best public university in the US for college (Go Bears) and my SATs weren’t that great either.

Go figure.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Prokofiev » Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:42 am

Which is a greater threat to society.

Terrorist attacks or private drones?
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TwstdSista
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by TwstdSista » Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:16 am

Hmm. Not sure how accurate this is, I got the "highest score" and I don't even know what cognitive biases are....

(I'm only slightly above average intelligence/IQ)

ResearchMed
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by ResearchMed » Thu Aug 23, 2018 5:47 am

Iridium wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:26 am
VictoriaF wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:02 pm
Start reading the BBC feature at http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2018081 ... ncertainty and click on "Click here to measure your risk literacy."
From the article, not the test, can anyone explain why 1 is supposed to be the correct answer to the toothpaste question and not 2? If you are responding to an advertisement comparing a toothpaste brand to other types of toothpaste, it would be logical to assume you use toothpaste. So, answer #1, which will include everyone who does not use toothpaste at all seems irrelevant. #2 at least limits the population to just to folks who use the other toothpaste, although it is weird to limit it to people who chose to be use toothpaste 'for the same purpose'. If folks reason for using is to prevent cavities or improve breath, I am not sure why you would exclude them, but it is still less wrong than looking at the risk of gum disease in a population that includes both folks who use toothpaste and those who do not.
That group in Answer 1 was not characterized by "not using toothpaste at all".
It would include those who did not use the *specific* toothpaste being advertised
"1. The risk of gum inflammation for people who do not use Zendil"

There is no information about whether they used any toothpaste at all.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by siamond » Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:58 am

TwstdSista wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 4:16 am
Hmm. Not sure how accurate this is, I got the "highest score" and I don't even know what cognitive biases are....
Yeah, I did a little bit more reading this morning, and this is yet another case of a 'journalist' mixing things up... As CuriousTacos observed, the scoring of the test is solely based on the first two questions, which is a carbon copy of the so-called Berlin Numeracy test, which is, as its name indicates, a simple test about numeracy (in the context of basic statistics). This has very little to do with cognitive biases, which are behavioral and not numerical (kind of the polar opposite, in a way!).

The article misses this distinction by a mile, and then essentially vaguely asserts that somebody with basic numeracy is less likely for fall for cognitive biases, which is actually NOT that obvious. I mean, how many investors do a lot of fancy mathematical computations and then fall to the most basic cognitive/behavioral bias in making their investment decisions? A LOT.

Granted, lack of numeracy often adds insult to injury, and makes one especially exposed to bad decision-making, but basic numeracy is nowhere near good enough to properly address cognitive biases. Otherwise, all engineers (myself included) would be amazing investors, and well, that is not quite the case, I'm afraid...

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:01 am

siamond wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 10:45 pm
Then I tried the other test, the Flanker thing Victoria mentioned. I felt like I messed it up pretty good to begin with, then got the hang of it... Got 47 at the end (and 50 when trying again). It's really annoying when your finger already moved and your brain realizes this is a mistake and it's too late to correct... the classic Gut vs. Head syndrome.
My brain and fingers had the same problem. They lack communication skills.

Victoria
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by harvestbook » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:14 am

Is there a name for the bias that causes you to only take tests you know you can ace?

Because I definitely am not taking this test!
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by N1CKV » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:18 am

I got 25-50%.
I am not only risk adverse by nature, but I also have no real need to take risk. I have had bad dealings with debt from individuals so that sways me far away from waiting to collect. All of which I believe skewed my answers different than the desired results ("desired" for whatever reason).

Additionally I absolutely hate statistics. I struggled with it in college, just not my cup of tea. I am an Accountant, I can do math just fine but I like absolutes.

I have no idea what was being "tested". The answers being sought were subjective.
I have met a lot of people that claim to love money, but they also seem to be the same people that are in the biggest hurry to get rid of it.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by SGM » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:25 am

The two examples given in the original referenced blog concerning medical/dental issues are good examples of the importance pre-test probability. The book Studying a Study, Testing a Test by RKRiegelman should be required reading before a physician orders a test or reads about new research. Apparently he has come up with a second book with the same title and a different subtitle plus CDs on the subject since I was in med school. Riegelman's work was an eye opener for interpreting studies.


Victoria, thanks for reminding me of what I learned from Dr. Riegelman many years ago..

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by cantos » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:53 am

harvestbook wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:14 am
Is there a name for the bias that causes you to only take tests you know you can ace?

Because I definitely am not taking this test!
Confirmation bias. :idea:

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Emilyjane » Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:56 am

I did ok on the cognitive bias.

On the flanker test, my brain could not even register seeing the arrow! So super low score. Sigh...
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nisiprius
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by nisiprius » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:00 am

Right now, I'm stuck on "Imagine you are throwing a five-sided die 50 times." Now, I can "believe in six impossible things before breakfast," but I'm having trouble visualizing this. I assume, although it is not stated, that the die is designed to come up with equal probability on each side. What shape would do this? It's certainly not impossible... but it's certainly not obvious, either. A pentagonal prism--like a pencil, but with only five sides--sharpened to a point at each end, I guess.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

Shallowpockets
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by Shallowpockets » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:01 am

Here is a question. Would you take this test if the results affected your portfolio in a way commensurate with how well you think you would do?
This before you read this thread and saw other people's results.

I scored 50-75%. No excuses.

As a BH I would have liked to know how much the toothpaste cost and how much the cholesterol drug cost?

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nisiprius
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by nisiprius » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:04 am

I will ask my Spanish teacher in Venezuela which she would prefer, BEF (Bolívar fuerte) 3400 this month, or 3800 this month, and see how confident she is that she has chosen the right answer. It will be a good opportunity to learn some bad words in Spanish.

Oh, heck, I think I need to get back into my schooldays mindset and start concentrating on psyching out "the answer the teacher wants" instead of "the right answer."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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nisiprius
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by nisiprius » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:24 am

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I flunked. I "did better than 25-50%" of college-educated people."

I think I was too much of a smartypants.* I think I should have gone with the truth (I'm not completely sure I prefer $3800 a month from now to $3400 now, etc.) instead of assuming that the point of the test was to express how confident I was in my ability to do high-school math probability arithmetic. I gambled on "the answer I think the teacher wants" instead of "the answer I think is right." Misjudged. And lost.

*What, me?
Last edited by nisiprius on Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by 4nursebee » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:25 am

Comparison is the thief of joy.
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BolderBoy
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by BolderBoy » Thu Aug 23, 2018 9:42 am

I flunked it - really bad.

Should I send my PhD back?
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect

staythecourse
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by staythecourse » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:24 am

Not sure if mentioned, but the answer to the toothpaste is not completely correct. What you want to know is what we call "NNT" or "Numbers Needed to Treat" in medical research jargon. It is how many folks benefit from toothpaste A vs. toothpaste B to prevent side effect X. Most if not all people brush there teeth so comparing toothpaste A vs. nothing is not a reflection of what happens in the real world. For example, celebrex (COX2 inhibitor) NSAID NNT over other NSAIDS (ibuprofen, alleve, etc...) is 1 in 14 or so in preventing GI erosions/ ulcerations. So that means 1 out of every 14 patients on celebrex would have shown its advantage in preventing GI erosions/ ulcerations. The other way to look at it is 13 out of 14 patients would not have mattered if they took celebrex, ibuprofen, or alleve for example in relation to his protection against the risk of GI ulceration but did pay the larger cost to prevent something that it did not help with. Apologize if those numbers are off as I was using it as an example and don't remember the exact numbers.

Also, risk analysis has to include MAGNITUDE of the risk if it shows up. If the MAGNITUDE of gum disease showing up is your dentist saying, "Hey you have gum disease you need to switch to this better toothpaste and we will re-evaluate in 6 months" is MUCH different then, "Hey you have gum disease and need major dental work done now because of it". As I have used the example before when it comes to medical procedures who cares if the risk of x happening is 1 in 4 if the x just means some a minor issue (black and blue mark from the needle puncture from a procedure for example) vs. 1 in 10,000 if the complication is paralysis. That 1 in x becomes 100% when it happens to you.

Risk analysis is an interesting topic.

Good luck.
"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” | -Jack Bogle

invst65
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by invst65 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:33 am

ResearchMed wrote:
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Okay, so after all of these Supremely Wonderful Scores, who will 'fess up to a lesser score, or an outright "low" one?

Also, do the "confidence" scores actually factor in to the "result", or is that just for the research in some other way?

RM
I confess. My score was zero because I found the very first question too taxing for my brain.

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DanMahowny
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:45 am

I scored "better than 75%-100% of college graduates".

Full disclosure- if my result sucked, I would've thought, "That test was stupid." and I wouldn't have posted my result.
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Re: Test your cognitive biases

Post by carolinaman » Thu Aug 23, 2018 10:48 am

N1CKV wrote:
Thu Aug 23, 2018 8:18 am
I got 25-50%.
I am not only risk adverse by nature, but I also have no real need to take risk. I have had bad dealings with debt from individuals so that sways me far away from waiting to collect. All of which I believe skewed my answers different than the desired results ("desired" for whatever reason).

Additionally I absolutely hate statistics. I struggled with it in college, just not my cup of tea. I am an Accountant, I can do math just fine but I like absolutes.

I have no idea what was being "tested". The answers being sought were subjective.
I scored poorly too. People who know me professionally and personally would be shocked at my score. I am a very rational, open minded and logical thinker. I have a body of work that is certainly contrary to this test. Either I am not as good as I think or this test is just silly academic crap.

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