Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

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covertfantom
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Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by covertfantom » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:54 am

I need a new minivan (either a Honda Odyssey or Toyota Sienna) in the next year or so. Ideally, I would wait until I actually need the car, but the proposed tariffs are creating a fair amount of uncertainty. Does anyone know whether the tariffs would hit just cars assembled abroad or whether it would impact all parts sourced abroad? When are they scheduled to go into affect?

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Pajamas
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am

Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?

H-Town
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by H-Town » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:59 am

covertfantom wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:54 am
I need a new minivan (either a Honda Odyssey or Toyota Sienna) in the next year or so. Ideally, I would wait until I actually need the car, but the proposed tariffs are creating a fair amount of uncertainty. Does anyone know whether the tariffs would hit just cars assembled abroad or whether it would impact all parts sourced abroad? When are they scheduled to go into affect?
No, only buy when you need it. Otherwise the lost of utility of your current car and opportunity cost of your funds are likely greater than the potential rising cost of new car.

Tariffs might affect the stock market but don't let it affect your net worth.

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dwickenh
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by dwickenh » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:59 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Or the solar model from years past..........
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

Glockenspiel
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Glockenspiel » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:00 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
I see what you did there. I've not spent the time to fully educate myself on this, but I did hear something about foreign car prices could increase 25%!? I'm not sure if the source was exaggerating or if that is accurate, but that would spur me to also think about buying now before prices rise. I'm not sure if they would rise on the 2019 model years or the cars that are already sitting in the sales lots?

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Pajamas
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:01 am

dwickenh wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:59 am
Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Or the solar model from years past..........
Solar models won't get enough sun through the haze from the coal models. . . .

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am

The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
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jebmke
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by jebmke » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
I don't think anything specific has been proposed but I'd be surprised if sub-assemblies parts aren't included in auto tariffs. So you'd have to know the total content country of origin to assess the impact.

I don't believe in buying a car until I need to; it is hard to predict "need" in advance.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

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Pajamas
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
75% of the parts for those models are imported.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how ... s-your-car

Don't worry, the drop in soy prices due to decreasing exports will cause food prices to plummet and offset any difference.

adamthesmythe
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by adamthesmythe » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:11 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
75% of the parts for those models are imported.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how ... s-your-car

Don't worry, the drop in soy prices due to decreasing exports will cause food prices to plummet and offset any difference.
Not to mention the glut of bourbon on the market.

02nz
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by 02nz » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:12 am

The real impact of the tariffs is hard to know because they've only been threatened; we don't know if or how they'd be implemented. Tariffs on imported car parts would also impact cars assembled domestically. And the broader (and higher) the tariffs, the more they'll impact all cars sold on the U.S. market: if the prices of Mercedes, Audi, and BMW go up because of tariffs, Cadillac would certainly raise its prices even if it weren't hit by the tariffs. Also, the price would likely not go up by the amount of the tariff - economic theory suggests the manufacturers would absorb part of the tariffs, because of supply and demand.

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dwickenh
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by dwickenh » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:12 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:01 am
dwickenh wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:59 am
Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Or the solar model from years past..........
Solar models won't get enough sun through the haze from the coal models. . . .
LOL good point PJ!!
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

jebmke
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by jebmke » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:13 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am
Don't worry, the drop in soy prices due to decreasing exports will cause food prices to plummet and offset any difference.
Not to mention bacon. Soy diesel engine? Fryolater on wheels.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

lazydavid
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by lazydavid » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:16 am

Glockenspiel wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:00 am
I see what you did there. I've not spent the time to fully educate myself on this, but I did hear something about foreign car prices could increase 25%!? I'm not sure if the source was exaggerating or if that is accurate, but that would spur me to also think about buying now before prices rise. I'm not sure if they would rise on the 2019 model years or the cars that are already sitting in the sales lots?
China imposed a 40% Tariff on US autos, leading Tesla to raise their prices by $22,600-37,600 depending on model:

https://electrek.co/2018/07/09/tesla-in ... r-tariffs/

I would expect a 25% tariff to have a similar, but less extreme, impact on foreign autos sold here.

SagaciousTraveler
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by SagaciousTraveler » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:19 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Awesome.

SimonJester
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by SimonJester » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:24 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
75% of the parts for those models are imported.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how ... s-your-car

I think you read that wrong, 75% of the parts are "Percentage of U.S. and Canadian Parts"
"...Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey follow closely, with 75 percent of their parts coming from domestic factories."
"They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin

LarryAllen
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by LarryAllen » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:30 am

Glockenspiel wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:00 am
Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
I see what you did there. I've not spent the time to fully educate myself on this, but I did hear something about foreign car prices could increase 25%!? I'm not sure if the source was exaggerating or if that is accurate, but that would spur me to also think about buying now before prices rise. I'm not sure if they would rise on the 2019 model years or the cars that are already sitting in the sales lots?
25% increase? Sounds like fake news. Maybe 25% on the cost of steel but the car is only made of a little bit of steel.

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Pajamas
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Pajamas » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:31 am

SimonJester wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:24 am

I think you read that wrong, 75% of the parts are "Percentage of U.S. and Canadian Parts"
"...Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey follow closely, with 75 percent of their parts coming from domestic factories."
:oops:

My bad!

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Cyclesafe
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Cyclesafe » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:05 am

Cadillac will not sell one car more if tariffs are imposed on imports. Look instead for the cost of quality used cars to increase. When tariffs are relaxed, the pent up demand for quality new cars will drive up their prices.

IOWs buying a quality car off the lot or in the pipeline could make sense.

22twain
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by 22twain » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:29 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Maybe this one? 8-)

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mervinj7
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by mervinj7 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:08 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:31 am
SimonJester wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:24 am

I think you read that wrong, 75% of the parts are "Percentage of U.S. and Canadian Parts"
"...Toyota Sienna and Honda Odyssey follow closely, with 75 percent of their parts coming from domestic factories."
:oops:

My bad!
I work for an American manufacturer that supplies parts for cars. I'm always amazed how many folks don't know that the highly recommended Toyotas and Hondas on this forum are all made domestically with a majority of parts also being made domestic. However, the biggest impact from the tariffs for our customers has been the tariffs on aluminium and steel.

TravelGeek
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:13 am

OP, are you sure a Harley won't work for you?

(I have seen a family of seven on a motorcycle, though admittedly not in this country)

I second what the poster right above me just said: from what I have heard, the steel/aluminum tariffs might be something to watch.

randomguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by randomguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:27 am

LarryAllen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:30 am
Glockenspiel wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:00 am
Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
I see what you did there. I've not spent the time to fully educate myself on this, but I did hear something about foreign car prices could increase 25%!? I'm not sure if the source was exaggerating or if that is accurate, but that would spur me to also think about buying now before prices rise. I'm not sure if they would rise on the 2019 model years or the cars that are already sitting in the sales lots?
25% increase? Sounds like fake news. Maybe 25% on the cost of steel but the car is only made of a little bit of steel.
Nope real news. Granted this whole thing is so stupid it is hard to imagine it is actually happening.

We are talking about a 25% on foreign made parts. That is a 100% tariff on your mercedes S-class built in germany from german parts. For something like your BMW X5 built in SC or a Ford built in mexico from US parts, you tend to be more like 50% US parts so the tarrif is more in the 10-15% range.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzela ... 854ed7ec11

gives a break for a bunch of popular models.

randomguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by randomguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:37 am

TravelGeek wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:13 am
OP, are you sure a Harley won't work for you?

(I have seen a family of seven on a motorcycle, though admittedly not in this country)

I second what the poster right above me just said: from what I have heard, the steel/aluminum tariffs might be something to watch.
Harleys are assembled in the US from foreign parts. Just like every other auto product in the US. Trade wars will hurt some individuals (i.e. the farmer whose sales to china drop as the cost of their good increases, person wanting to buy a car put now has to pay 5-15% more) and help others (maybe the steel factory gets to sell 10% more) but in general they are going to be net losses with unattended side effects. What it does to is make planning hard. How much do you rearrange your supply chain (i.e. instead of building cars in the US and exporting them while building US market cars in canada, you build them in canada and export them and keep the US build cars for local consumption) for something that might be temporary? Its a tough one.

JoeRetire
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by JoeRetire » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:51 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana.
That's assembled in Alabama and Indiana.

As far as I can tell there are no tariffs expected to be imposed on any US states.
But the steel used to make those cars and the parts imported for those cars - that may be a different story.

No way to tell for sure yet.

02nz
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by 02nz » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:57 pm

LarryAllen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:30 am
25% increase? Sounds like fake news. Maybe 25% on the cost of steel but the car is only made of a little bit of steel.
Just because you weren't paying attention doesn't make it "fake news." The administration is considering 25% tariffs on the whole car, separately from the already-implemented tariffs on imported steel.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1527106235

killjoy2012
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by killjoy2012 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:19 pm

mervinj7 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:08 am
the highly recommended Toyotas and Hondas on this forum are all made domestically with a majority of parts also being made domestic.
Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to mention where the profits go. Go pull US employment numbers - there's no comparison. The US Big 3 also do final assembly abroad - that doesn't make GM a Chinese company simply because they have a factory in China doing final assembly for the Chinese market. Just as it doesn't make Toyota an American company because they have a final assembly plant in Indiana.

Go ask anyone in the US that works for Toyota if their company is American. You will get a quick & definitive NO answer. All of the bosses, direction and shots are called from Japan... there's no delusions. "Made" is a very ambiguous word.

bhsince87
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by bhsince87 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:33 pm

It's possible that higher tariffs in other countries could actually make autos cost LESS in the US.

I wouldn't factor speculation about future government actions in a purchase decision.
Retirement: When you reach a point where you have enough. Or when you've had enough.

02nz
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by 02nz » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:37 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:19 pm
Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to mention where the profits go. Go pull US employment numbers - there's no comparison. The US Big 3 also do final assembly abroad - that doesn't make GM a Chinese company simply because they have a factory in China doing final assembly for the Chinese market. Just as it doesn't make Toyota an American company because they have a final assembly plant in Indiana.

Go ask anyone in the US that works for Toyota if their company is American. You will get a quick & definitive NO answer. All of the bosses, direction and shots are called from Japan... there's no delusions. "Made" is a very ambiguous word.
So you probably think the Buick Envision is an American car, but its competitor, the Honda CR-V, is Japanese.

That "American" car is assembled in China with 86% Chinese content and 11% U.S./Canadian content. The "Japanese" car is assembled in both the U.S. and Canada, with about two-thirds of its content from the U.S. and Canada.

Well what about the profits? OK, but the shareholders of GM aren't all Americans and the shareholders of Honda aren't all Japanese. And the profit on each car (typically around $1000-$2000 per car) is much smaller than the value of components. So if you care about supporting American jobs, you're much better off buying the "Japanese" car.

visualguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by visualguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:04 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:19 pm
Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to mention where the profits go. Go pull US employment numbers - there's no comparison. The US Big 3 also do final assembly abroad - that doesn't make GM a Chinese company simply because they have a factory in China doing final assembly for the Chinese market. Just as it doesn't make Toyota an American company because they have a final assembly plant in Indiana.

Go ask anyone in the US that works for Toyota if their company is American. You will get a quick & definitive NO answer. All of the bosses, direction and shots are called from Japan... there's no delusions. "Made" is a very ambiguous word.
This whole concept of the national identity of a company is becoming more and more archaic. So many corporations are multi-national entities now. Even startups... Not sure what an "American" company means anymore.

I worked for a couple of "US" tech companies where most of the R&D was done abroad (Israel, India), and all the manufacturing was done abroad (China, Taiwan). We were headquartered in the US, and some of the venture funding was of US sources, but most of the development and manufacturing work was done abroad and some of the funding came from abroad. This is pretty common in technology. You have to leverage the best and most cost-effective global resources.

I now work for a megacorp. We have huge offices all over the world, much of the R&D is done abroad, and much of the revenue comes from abroad. It's really a muti-national even though it's headquartered in the US and we have significant R&D and revenues in the US as well.

It definitely seems like much of the public and some in government don't realize what modern corporations (including auto companies) look like, and how inherently global their operations are these days.

killjoy2012
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by killjoy2012 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:06 pm

02nz wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:37 pm
So you probably think the Buick Envision is an American car, but its competitor, the Honda CR-V, is Japanese.

That "American" car is assembled in China with 86% Chinese content and 11% U.S./Canadian content. The "Japanese" car is assembled in both the U.S. and Canada, with about two-thirds of its content from the U.S. and Canada.

Well what about the profits? OK, but the shareholders of GM aren't all Americans and the shareholders of Honda aren't all Japanese. And the profit on each car (typically around $1000-$2000 per car) is much smaller than the value of components. So if you care about supporting American jobs, you're much better off buying the "Japanese" car.
A look at US employment numbers clears all of the noise. Final assembly is small portion of the overall company make up. It's not just about where the profits go. Personally, I value the high skilled, high paying white collar jobs over the unskilled blue collar jobs. Supply chains have been globalized for the better part of 2 decades now.

Is Apple a Chinese company since they manufacture all of their products there? No, I didn't think so. It's the same for automotive.

killjoy2012
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by killjoy2012 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:21 pm

visualguy wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:04 pm
This whole concept of the national identity of a company is becoming more and more archaic. So many corporations are multi-national entities now. Even startups... Not sure what an "American" company means anymore.

I worked for a couple of "US" tech companies where most of the R&D was done abroad (Israel, India), and all the manufacturing was done abroad (China, Taiwan). We were headquartered in the US, and some of the venture funding was of US sources, but most of the development and manufacturing work was done abroad and some of the funding came from abroad. This is pretty common in technology. You have to leverage the best and most cost-effective global resources.

I now work for a megacorp. We have huge offices all over the world, much of the R&D is done abroad, and much of the revenue comes from abroad. It's really a muti-national even though it's headquartered in the US and we have significant R&D and revenues in the US as well.

It definitely seems like much of the public and some in government don't realize what modern corporations (including auto companies) look like, and how inherently global their operations are these days.
I completely agree. Most MegaCorps are multi-nationals. But as an example, GE is still an American company even though it derived over 50% of its 2017 revenue from outside of the USA. Samsung is still South Korean even though the Americas are its largest market. And VW is still German. And Toyota is till Japanese.

Lines have been blurred for sure over the last couple decades as globalization has taken hold. But I still don't think it changes the DNA of companies.

MichCPA
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by MichCPA » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:26 pm

Without getting into politics, I don't think tariffs on autos are likely to both be imposed and stay imposed long term. Buying on this speculation is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog.

visualguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by visualguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:27 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:06 pm
A look at US employment numbers clears all of the noise. Final assembly is small portion of the overall company make up. It's not just about where the profits go. Personally, I value the high skilled, high paying white collar jobs over the unskilled blue collar jobs. Supply chains have been globalized for the better part of 2 decades now.

Is Apple a Chinese company since they manufacture all of their products there? No, I didn't think so. It's the same for automotive.
Many auto companies which are not US-based have R&D facilities in the US, not just manufacturing...

covertfantom
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by covertfantom » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:31 pm

I didn't know if there was really a way to ask this question without all of the subsequent political commentary that was sure to follow :shock:

While I do have a political opinion, I am trying to forecast the future here. Yelling fake news doesn't change the reality on the ground... Whatever that reality may be.

Have higher prices hit yet? What actions would result in a higher price on the minivan I'm interested in? Is this something that happens overnight or will there be a small window for me to beat the tariff with an early purchase?

visualguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by visualguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:32 pm

MichCPA wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:26 pm
Without getting into politics, I don't think tariffs on autos are likely to both be imposed and stay imposed long term. Buying on this speculation is a classic case of the tail wagging the dog.
It's impossible to say one way or the other... The high tariffs on light trucks ("chicken tax") were imposed in the sixties, and they've persisted for many decades now, so we've seen that happen.

visualguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by visualguy » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:43 pm

covertfantom wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:31 pm
Have higher prices hit yet? What actions would result in a higher price on the minivan I'm interested in? Is this something that happens overnight or will there be a small window for me to beat the tariff with an early purchase?
Higher prices haven't hit yet, so if you buy now you'll beat any tariffs that may be imposed. There's a public hearing on auto tariffs scheduled for July 19-20. Waiting beyond that could be risky. If it becomes clear that tariffs are coming, prices will start going up even before the tariffs are imposed because there will be a run on pre-tariff dealer inventories which could result in the elimination of discounts and incentives as well as mark-ups, and then if you wait even longer you'll be dealing with post-tariff pricing.

bhsince87
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by bhsince87 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:43 pm

covertfantom wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:31 pm
I didn't know if there was really a way to ask this question without all of the subsequent political commentary that was sure to follow :shock:

While I do have a political opinion, I am trying to forecast the future here. Yelling fake news doesn't change the reality on the ground... Whatever that reality may be.

Have higher prices hit yet? What actions would result in a higher price on the minivan I'm interested in? Is this something that happens overnight or will there be a small window for me to beat the tariff with an early purchase?
There is no way to predict what will happen.

An increase in tariff in another country could lead to an excess of cars in the US, and thus, lower prices.
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jabberwockOG
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by jabberwockOG » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:13 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:19 pm
mervinj7 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:08 am
the highly recommended Toyotas and Hondas on this forum are all made domestically with a majority of parts also being made domestic.
Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to mention where the profits go. Go pull US employment numbers - there's no comparison. The US Big 3 also do final assembly abroad - that doesn't make GM a Chinese company simply because they have a factory in China doing final assembly for the Chinese market. Just as it doesn't make Toyota an American company because they have a final assembly plant in Indiana.

Go ask anyone in the US that works for Toyota if their company is American. You will get a quick & definitive NO answer. All of the bosses, direction and shots are called from Japan... there's no delusions. "Made" is a very ambiguous word.
Giant multinational corporations with thousands of employees spread over multiple continents (and owned primarily by large investment funds spread across the globe) do not have a nationality. This is not the 1950's. Thinking of huge multinational corporations like Apple or GM as American companies, or Toyota as a Japanese company, or Mercedes as German, is a somewhat outdated and somewhat naive way of thinking.

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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by LarryAllen » Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:13 am

02nz wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:57 pm
LarryAllen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:30 am
25% increase? Sounds like fake news. Maybe 25% on the cost of steel but the car is only made of a little bit of steel.
Just because you weren't paying attention doesn't make it "fake news." The administration is considering 25% tariffs on the whole car, separately from the already-implemented tariffs on imported steel.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... 1527106235
I learn something new every day. I don't think this will happen though. Glad I just bought my German car just in case. Lol.

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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by grettman » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:03 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:01 am
dwickenh wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:59 am
Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:54 am
Have you considered waiting to buy one of the newer models that burns coal?
Or the solar model from years past..........
Solar models won't get enough sun through the haze from the coal models. . . .
..and the haze caused by all the fossil fuel burning power plants that source the electricity for the electric vehicles that are equipped with toxic batteries!

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Pajamas
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Pajamas » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:35 am

grettman wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:03 am
..and the haze caused by all the fossil fuel burning power plants that source the electricity for the electric vehicles that are equipped with toxic batteries!
Clean and sustainable sources of electricity are certainly critical to the overall benefits of electric vehicles.

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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by jharkin » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:13 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
75% of the parts for those models are imported.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how ... s-your-car

Don't worry, the drop in soy prices due to decreasing exports will cause food prices to plummet and offset any difference.
And a lot of parts in "domestic" vehicles are sourced abroad as well... so there is no way to know that a Toyota or Honda would be more effected by the tariffs than a Chevy; without doing a detailed analysis. And there does not appear to me much of that going into any of these decisions right now so I don't even want to guess. :oops:


Really only time will tell how it all falls out. For all we know it may cause a global recession and put us all out of work making hte decision moot.

randomguy
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by randomguy » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:19 am

Pajamas wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:08 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
75% of the parts for those models are imported.

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/how ... s-your-car

Don't worry, the drop in soy prices due to decreasing exports will cause food prices to plummet and offset any difference.
75% are US parts for the minivans. The tariff will not affect them much. It is foreign made cars like the Cheverolot Aero (2%) and ford fusions (20% US parts) that will really get hit by the tariff.

What will be interesting is how different the tariff will be. Your Prius might go up 25%(think it is almost 100% foreign parts) while that highlander might go up 5% (mainly us based). A canadian made RAV4 might now cost 10% more than a US made CRV.There could be all sorts of weird distortions in the market.

It will also be fun to see how this tariff is listed. Does it show up on the sticker? Can you imagine what happens when the Ford F150 buyer goes in and sees that their is a 2k trump tax on his new pick up since it is only 50% american made?:)

goodlifer
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by goodlifer » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:25 am

d
covertfantom wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:54 am
I need a new minivan (either a Honda Odyssey or Toyota Sienna) in the next year or so. Ideally, I would wait until I actually need the car, but the proposed tariffs are creating a fair amount of uncertainty. Does anyone know whether the tariffs would hit just cars assembled abroad or whether it would impact all parts sourced abroad? When are they scheduled to go into affect?
There is more to think about than just tariffs. Waiting until you desperately need a car puts you at a disadvantage. Interest rates are expected to rise, so you need to factor that in if you are financing. Just because you have cash for your car doesn't mean you won't finance. We finance whenever the loan rate is cheaper than the savings rate. I'm not sure about the vehicles you are interested in, but I still see some 0% to .9% offers out there. I wouldn't think too much into it, myself. I don't do any sort of equations, other than happiness. Do I feel that I need a new car? Is there a vehicle out there that is exactly what I want? Do I have the money for it? If yes, then buy it. In the grand scheme of things, buying a new car 1 year earlier than planned isn't going to make much of a difference.

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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:13 am

killjoy2012 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:19 pm
Fake news. Are you implying that Toyota and Honda are as American as GM, Ford, and Chrysler? What's your definition of "made" - simply where final assembly is done? Great - that covers some of the blue collar workers, none of the white collar or where all of the R&D, execs and HQ are - not to mention where the profits go.
Solid argument . . . . . in 1973
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greg24
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by greg24 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:34 am

Top 10 most American-made cars

http://www.chicagotribune.com/classifie ... llery.html

10. Honda Pilot
9. Honda Odyssey
8. GMC Arcadia
7. Ford Expedition
6. Ford F-150
5. Acura RDX
4. Honda Ridgeline
3. Ford Taurus
2. Jeep Cherokee
1. Jeep Wrangler

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:55 am

Interesting quote from the article:
For a given 20 people employed by the U.S. auto industry, about four work directly at automakers. About seven work at suppliers, but the biggest chunk — roughly nine — work at new-car dealerships.
This tells me that the biggest block of US workers (9/20) work for new car dealers. So an Aston Martin (0% US content) still creates a significant US workforce opportunity. Interesting.
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by Rupert » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:02 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:04 am
The Honda Odyssey is manufactured in Lincoln, Alabama.

The Toyota Sienna is manufactured in Princeton, Indiana.

I was unaware that we're imposing tariffs on Alabama and Indiana. But I guess I would not be surprised to hear that we are. I guess I'm lucky as I just bought a Subaru....also built in Indiana. Dodged a bullet there.
Big news story in business section of Alabama newspaper today: "Hyundai union: Alabama plant could be first shut down under tariff plan."

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greg24
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Re: Auto Tariffs: time to buy?

Post by greg24 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:38 am

Rupert wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:02 am
Big news story in business section of Alabama newspaper today: "Hyundai union: Alabama plant could be first shut down under tariff plan."
The union claims 20,000 jobs may be lost.

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