2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

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ebotrd
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2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by ebotrd » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:42 pm

Most of you all seem pretty smart, so i thought I´d ask for your insights as to a choice.
I finally went electric a few years ago and bought a base 2012 Volt. LOVE IT! But, wife´s been encouraging me to upgrade (as she´s wont to do) as I’m about to change jobs and go from driving maybe 8000 miles/year to around 25000 miles/year...and now I´m really thinking about it. I’d also save a bit of gas money vs my 2012 especially since I can charge at work...i’ll probably spend around $1200/year in gas at the new job. I figure I’d save half that gas money with a Gen 2 Volt.
I´m also a Model 3 reservation holder, but when I run the numbers and think through the pros-cons, I thought I’d take a look at Gen 2 Volt Premiers and overall that seems like the best fit for me.

Here are the numbers:
(*My state tax is 8.25%)

Keep my 2012 Volt...$0. Cool thing about this choice is it seems by 2020 we´ll have more choices and better tech. EV´s may offer way more range and faster charging, etc...or no on buys cars anymore because they´re all autonomous and we just summon a cheap ride whenever-wherever :wink:

2016 Volt Premier...23000.
...May be able to find what I want for ~$21000...after tax (no tax credit) it’s 23000.

2018 Volt Premier...$29000
...Looks like new could be had for $33500...after tax & tax credit it’s 29000. Still learning and shopping it..might be able to get it like $3k lower--I think I only really care about leather and heated seats.

2019 Volt Premier...$29000(?)
...supposed to be about same price I assume(?)...the 7.2kW charging would be cool but honestly I’d rarely use it.

And just for academic purposes...
Model 3...$47000.
It’s $49000...after tax & tax credit (likely 7500 if it’s delivered by Dec as it says) it’s 47000. That’s the cheapest option currently - has the 310 mile range and premium package.

So, really? Only $6k difference between a 2016 vs new Volt? Does that look right to you all?
Think it´s worth it? Why? or Why not?
What’s better about the 2018 Volt (or 2019...i’m patient) that would make it worth the extra $6k?
I´d probably keep it for 8 years or more.
I´ve tinkered with the idea of Bolt or Leaf, but I think being able to road trip spontaneously is too important to me, so iiiimits me to Volt or Model 3 realistically.
Thanks for your thoughts.
When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. -- E. Musk.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by Poster » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:03 pm

Dude, go for the Model 3.!!! No brainer. It rocks! And save the earth (more).

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BrandonBogle
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:34 am

I’m going to be the contrarian here. If this is going to predominantly be your commuting vehicle, I would drive the 2012 into the ground. I’m a Tesla Model S Owners. I love my car and after a year of keeping my Toyota alongside it, I kept just the S. That said, at 25k miles/year, you would only get two years out of the Model 3 warranty. I’m personally not a fan of having such a short warranty period on a newly released vehicle.

Now, Tesla has done lots to learn in their vehicle production and improve part design, but they still have plenty left to improve in that scenario.

So I would honestly get the 3 anyways, but use the Volt for commuting so you have a more enjoyable ride after work. Absent that, I’d stick with the car I already have as it is already out of warranty and has no major deficiencies.
Last edited by BrandonBogle on Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

abonder
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by abonder » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:34 am

I suspect that the answer you’re going to get here (mostly) is to keep the 2012 Volt, even among the large number of EV enthusiasts here. It’s a pretty solid option for a longish commute and supposedly the reliability has been good overall. I’d probably stick with it for a while and see how things are going. You can’t beat the price and you can always upgrade or change later. If you find that it’s not meeting your needs with this longer commute, then reasses the options and see what vehicle would meet your needs and pursue that.
Good luck.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:36 am

My earlier opinion would change if you would get a stipend for buying a vehicle for work purposes (one of my hospital techs gets that, which is great as he drives 50k mile/year regionally). My earlier thoughts were based on this coming out of the Op’s own pocket vs. the employer’s.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by Poster » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:09 am

Thanks for replies.
So I am leaning towards keeping the 2012.
If I do make a move and go through the trouble and expense I´d go for leather and heated seats this time around. Don´t care about much else but the Adaptive Cruise Control might be nice because I do hit about 15min of bumper to bumper traffic on my usual 40 to 70min work commute (each way).

I´ve always been a pretty simple guy with simple tastes...discovered these guys ¨theminimalists.com¨ a while back and what they preach definitely strikes a cord with me...not really into material things or luxuries, but I do kind of see the appeal and how spending a little more often does add real value, convenience, whatever. My wife´s the exact opposite, so i probably would not have started thinking about it without her nudge. I am a tree-hugger type, but that´s muted by my frugality - it has to financially be reasonable for me...financial independence with all the freedom that offers (retire earlier, help family in a pinch, go-to-hell money, etc) is also very important to me.

Bottom line, let´s say I buy a 2018 Volt and keep it 10 years -- seriously feasible for a guy like me -- either I keep driving it or pass it on to my teenager in about 5 years...I can also of course sell my ´12 (worth maybe $8k) and I´d save a few thousand $$ more in gas over the years (vs the ´12). All things considered, I´d probably be negative $10 to 12k or so for having a little more luxury those 10 years, plus resale value would be a bit more than the 2012 (we´d be in like 2028 by then!...maybe $2k value for a 2012, $4k for a 2018...no idea).

I do love the Tesla and what they´re doing and mission and all, and I´d enjoy the challenge of having such a wildcard car from a growing-evolving company, but I agree the infrastructure still isn´t really quite there and I think I´d enjoy observing their successes and failures as a fan almost as much as an owner. The Model 3 option I´d probably be negative $24k for the same 10 year plan...and no idea about resale value in 2028 - perhaps $8k at best I guess(?) It does have the advantage of having the autopilot and self-driving hardware on-board even though i wouldn´t consider paying to activate them until self-driving really happens.

For me, the extra expense (of a newer Volt) might overall be worth it to me so long as I ¨pay myself back¨. I´m blessed in that I could just work some extra shifts to make up the added expense over time (sweat equity) and that compartmentalization makes the purchase acceptable to me. We are thinking 20 extra weekend shifts would be enough to get there...we would probably have fun with it checking them off one by one on a paper on the fridge.

PS -- Anyone want to nudge me towards the Model 3, hurry...probably need to decide this week or tax credit will start to ratchet down...i´d be lucky to get the full $7500 even now. Oh, and that option is more like 40 extra weekend shifts :wink:
PPS -- no work stipend. I wish.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:15 am

The credit will remain for the rest of the year and you are very likely to get one ordering anytime in July. Folks in the past week are already being scheduled for delivery.

Any particular reason why you aren’t considering the Bolt vs. the new Volt? I saw because I’ve heard there are some good deals in certain markets for them.

Once a Bolt possibility is on the table, then you can revisit that “luxury tax” providing worthwhile value.

I also wouldn’t do Full Self Driving until version 2.0, or at least until it’s actually permitted on public roads by the general public. Keep in mind it will be $5k on the Tesla to get radar cruise (I wish that was standard or a standalone option vs. all of AutoPilot).

I will say my neighbor three doors down is trading in his Porsche 911 for a Model 3 this Monday after driving my S a few months ago. :D

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ebotrd
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by ebotrd » Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:41 am

Yeah, have considered Bolt or latest Leaf even, but I do value the freedom to just get up and decide to road trip somehere...if you want that and want electric and want under $50k, then your choices are really only Volt or Model 3 or used S.
When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. -- E. Musk.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by detroitbabu » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:28 am

ebotrd wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:41 am
Y but I do value the freedom to just get up and decide to road trip somehere..
How often have you taken such trips say in the last 3 years? Can you rent a car for the trip?

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by Nate79 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:24 am

If you want to upgrade, go ahead buy a new car. But keeping the 2012 makes the most financial sense.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by Atomic » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:38 pm

Can you charge at work on someone else's dime? If so, the numbers for an EV or plug in hybrid with the range to make it 1x 2x or more the distance might move more of your commute cost off your ledger. The other question to consider: if your wife already has a gas vehicle, can't you still do spontaneous trips even if your other vehicle has range limitations?

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ebotrd
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by ebotrd » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:39 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:24 am
If you want to upgrade, go ahead buy a new car. But keeping the 2012 makes the most financial sense.
Actually, yeah, I guess that sums it up quite nicely. Thanks! If I do upgrade, I´ll plan to pay myself back by working some extra shifts over time. Earn $20,000 or so extra, paying $6k in taxes to get a $7500 rebate...seems like a vicious cycle LOL.
Atomic wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:38 pm
Can you charge at work on someone else's dime? If so, the numbers for an EV or plug in hybrid with the range to make it 1x 2x or more the distance might move more of your commute cost off your ledger. The other question to consider: if your wife already has a gas vehicle, can't you still do spontaneous trips even if your other vehicle has range limitations?
Well, my job will offer regular 110 household outlet charging, so in a full workday I tend to be able to get just enough electricity to get me back home...35 miles, but much of it downhill.

DW has a Model X, but yes we´ve adapted to using it for family road trips quite nicely...take our time and enjoy the longer stretch breaks. However, occasionally I have to travel solo for our rental (100 miles away), or for work. It´s only maybe 5 long trips per year average but if I had to go through the hassle of renting a car even once I think I´d regret it. I´ve also experienced plugging in the Volt and the breaker trips, or I forget to plug it in altogether -- that´s potentially a very bad day in a Leaf. Volt you just buy a little more gas.

I figure I´ll spend around $100 per month gas if I just keep the older Volt...already that´s less than 1/3 the fuel bill of an ICE car. With a Gen 2 Volt I´d probably get the gas costs down to around $50/month...nearly $0 in the pricier Model 3 (we have plenty of rooftop solar). Also we have a 7yo and 5 total in the family, so that tiny (but legit) middle rear seat would actually be a big plus for us too. Gen 1 volts only have 4 seats/4 seat belts.

REALLY appreciate everyone´s thoughts on the matter...I´m thinking I´ll be happiest sitting tight for now. 3 to 6 months from now 2018 Volts will probably drop a bit in price with 2019 model coming out. I´ll probably try to go for one of those just before the federal tax rebate fizzles out. If I can wait that long, 3 years from now used Model 3´s will probably be at a compelling price point as well. If they´re holding up well with low maintenance/repair costs I may convert then.
When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. -- E. Musk.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:56 pm

Just another word now that we have more “big picture” details. The 2012 Vilt will be a fine vehicle and you can’t go wrong with it. That said, if you want to treat yourself and have options, you could get the Model ≡ and keep the Volt for work. You already have an X, so it may be fine to just take DW’s car when you want your fix or driving around with the family.

To be clear though, as other’s have said, the most financial sense would be to just continue as you do today.

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ebotrd
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by ebotrd » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:37 pm

BrandonBogle wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:56 pm
Just another word now that we have more “big picture” details. The 2012 Vilt will be a fine vehicle and you can’t go wrong with it. That said, if you want to treat yourself and have options, you could get the Model ≡ and keep the Volt for work. You already have an X, so it may be fine to just take DW’s car when you want your fix or driving around with the family.

To be clear though, as other’s have said, the most financial sense would be to just continue as you do today.
That´s true - I have thought about that and I feel I can get my Tesla fix pretty much assuaged by occasionally driving DW´s X. So, I guess now the dilemma now is I´m leaning towards a 2018 Volt in a few months when hopefully they ratchet down a little more in price as the 2019´s come out, yet they probably still have a few quarters before their tax rebate phase-out. I´ll reassess - perhaps I could even wait for 2020 Volts to come out and score a deal on the 2019´s. However, if I make that move, I´ll probably never own a Model 3, as I´d be thinking really-long-term with that Volt.

If I were to wait 3 years or so, I could imagine used Model 3´s appearing at a significant discount and I´d happily scoop one of those up then, assuming they´ve proven themselves extremely reliable as expected...same $50k car may be $30k or less then. Dare I say it?...would I be wrong to say perhaps I perceive just a bit of over-exuberance for the Model 3 right now? I mean, I truly wish Tesla all the best and really hope they have success after success with no hiccups. They´re trying to add more stations quickly, but we´ve waited in line to SuperCharge even before the Model 3 ramp. Their service is top notch and the loaner cars are very nice, but service can be slow and often rather pricey for my blood. Will be interesting to see if Model 3´s rarely need inexpensive repairs, or perhaps end up needing frequent pricey repairs. Hopeful it´s the former, as M3 has less parts, no electronics in the door handles, no F·"!'wing doors, etc.
When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. -- E. Musk.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:44 pm

All good points (though in NC with our two service centers, I've never experienced a wait and the only time I had to wait to Supercharge was during the Solar Eclipse a couple months back - a whole 45 second wait while someone ran up and moved their car when I pulled up). And when you consider most of these $50k cars are getting $7.5k back from the Fed and potentially more from their states, $30k for a used one in 2-3 years is not unreasonable. But that is not considering emotion, which for sure is involved in these vehicles right now.

In our case, we have thought the same. The thought of holding onto the 2010 Lexus IS until a used 2018 Model 3 in 2020 isn't exactly appealing, but we are facing the same type of decision - a paid off car that would be a luxury spend to replace while we also already have a Model S to use whenever. A hard pill to swallow for "The Boglehead Way".

Whatever you decide, you will be fine since you thought about it. Just keep in mind that we invest to be able to grow our savings to enjoy our lives, don't let saving for the sake of saving get in the way of enjoying yourself (if you've earned it).

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ebotrd
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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by ebotrd » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:52 pm

I guess the truth is I have earned it. I'm pretty sure I could buy either in cash, and, if I felt it was necessary, could work a couple hundred extra hours over the next few years to sort of re-save that cash. My Boglehead financial goal is to obviate the need for long term care insurance, which I've read mean something like $2-3M tucked away. Considering what I've accumulated in Vanguard index funds, IRAs, 401k, also have a fairly significant pension built up, as well as a rental that has maybe $700k equity now, I think I'm making good progress. Also have a good 10-20 years left in me to work full time I think. I'd love to double it to fully cover my spouse as well, but really I think spouse's family's wealth covers that pretty well. Kids/college expenses are still being built up, but maybe 60% there and have 5-10y left - will probably have to pour a few more $10k's into that. The other thing is this car may well end up handed off to my kid in about 2022 when reaches driving age.

Just checked out the showroom Model 3 and test drove 2018 Volt these past few days to see if that helps decided. Unfortunately, sales staff with both were not that knowledgeable on either vehicle - knew less than I did overall. Just had my 2012 Volt's routine maintenance done as well -- as part of that they washed it and my fondness for my old reliable was renewed again LOL! Still a tough decision for me. I think the toughest part is that the $49-50k Model 3 that you can buy configure/order today I could probably get for around $8k less with the rebates, and I have to hurry up and decide about that. Otherwise I'm cool just sitting tight with my 2012 and watching how things develop.

I watch some of Ben Sullin's stuff -- here he tries to predict Model 3 depreciation https://youtu.be/Q9ZCfIoPm_o - pertinent part starts around 3:10. Basically says expect around 30% at 60k miles/5y (about 2023 I guess)...which is actually less depreciation than other cars in the class...but could be much worse if some sort of next great thing comes out. And the numbers will be scrambled because these earler M3's have more features but also had the tax credit.
When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor. -- E. Musk.

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by jeffh19 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:35 pm

I'm also kind of looking too, in a different situation though. I'll do a little rambling for discussions sake, or for others that may read this who are pondering an EV.

I have a 12 Cruze Eco MT, bought it for the insanely high mpg (got 66.9mpg on a 250ish mile trip once, have a pic to prove it no its not a hybrid)

But I hate it now. I won't list the 30 reasons why, but I'm dying for new cars as cars are my biggest obsession in life, but personal finance is 1B. Anyway.

I would like to do a Bolt as they are so easy to see out of, so easy to get in and out of and the longer range is cool. I just don't quite think it will work for my lifestyle as I drive to my parents a few times a month, and once in a great while even further and back in the same night, so long story short, in winters or if I drive as fast as I normally do, I'd have to stop at a DC fast charging station for 30-60 mins to get back home. Also, on road trips I just don't think the infastructure is set up quite yet. After the Electrify America movement is done, I think it will be and more EVs come out and gain popularity.

Tesla's have the Supercharger network going for them and the long range, that's awesome. I think its so cool how Tesla's nav plans your trip for you based on charging stations, and only stops you just enough time to charge for what you need to safely make it to the next station among other things. They charge SO much faster than GMs stuff. Makes road trips doable right now.

But they are so much more expensive. Like you said, your looking at 50k for a Model 3 like most people would like, a fully loaded Volt/Bolt is almost 10k cheaper, and I don't love the interior of the 3, the dealer is a couple hours away from me, and you also have to worry about the Tesla/brand new car/model year/issues etc as I'm sure they are mostly ok, I've heard a lot of people say that Tesla basically uses their buyers as Beta testers. That's not a horrible slight as Tesla seems to constantly update and fix things via software updates. When GM comes out with something new, you buy the new car. Almost never are new features or options ever ever available in a previous model year. Tesla seems to be dedicated to making a car you already bought even better all the time.

So if I can bring myself to spend the money instead of saving 85% of my money in my early 30s, I'm planning to go with a Volt. Horrible rear head room, but I only have someone back there on a trip a couple times a year really. Except for when I run to my parents to visit, all my driving is in the city so 53 miles of range is plenty. I'm all about the 19s for the faster charging and the new rear view mirror screen/camera that is awesome. With the tax credit, I'm only looking at buying new.

GM has said that in the next few years, they are going to roll about about 20 EV models world wide. By the end of 2019 I think, the VW/Electrify America thing will have about 500 very fast charging stations up across America, most of them probably in suburban/cali/metro areas, but some across interstates etc. They have some maps out there to look at their plans. Also, you'll have several other charging stations popping up all over too over the years as EVs come popular, I read VW is going almost all EVs etc. So I think a electric only EV will be a lot more viable option in 3-5 years. Until then, without a Tesla I'm sticking with a Volt.

For you? I'd maybe keep driving what you're driving, see how the prices are on the 18/19s, keep an eye on the used Tesla market and how the cars do over time, with an eye to the future of what may be coming out. GM plans to replace the Volt in 3 years with a cross over model among other options. I'm sure in a couple few years, Tesla will have more/better things too. I've been rambling so long I can't remember if you said how long your daily commute is lol

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by aqan » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:02 pm

Poster wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:03 pm
Dude, go for the Model 3.!!! No brainer. It rocks! And save the earth (more).
There’s a difference of $20,000. How’s that a no brainer?

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by sco » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:00 am

Poster wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:03 pm
Dude, go for the Model 3.!!! No brainer. It rocks! And save the earth (more).
How does the Model 3 save the earth?

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Re: 2016 vs 2018 or 2018 Volt (Model 3?)--compare and help me decide?

Post by Poster » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:17 am

By accelerating the advent of sustainable transport, of course.

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