Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

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markfaix
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Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by markfaix »

We are planning to replace DW's Honda Odyssey with >200K miles with another Odyssey. DW had proposed buying a new one when the first 2018 models came out last year, but I was reluctant because the 2018 Odyssey was a brand new redesign, and conventional wisdom warns against buying the first year model of a major redesign.

The 2019 Odysseys came out a few months ago. The dealer says that there is absolutely no difference between the 2018 and 2019 Odysseys, except for price, with the 2019 >$2k more expensive. I suggested that we buy a 2018 since prices are more negotiable and since the cars are identical. DW replied, "You wanted to wait because the new 2018 models might be unreliable, and now you want to buy the unreliable 2018 so I have to go fix it all the time? Why not buy the 2019 when they should have the bugs ironed out?"

So which would you buy: the year end 2018, or the new 2019 model, which is possibly more reliable than the 2018 despite being the same design.
02nz
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by 02nz »

The advice about avoiding the first model year of a redesign isn't entirely baseless, but it's also easy to take too literally. Manufacturers identify and correct problems throughout the product cycle. If Honda found problems with the MY18 early on, they likely tried to correct them before the switchover to MY19. But if there were other problems that they haven't identified yet, it's also entirely possible that two years down the road there'll be a recall for model years 2018-2020. It's hard to know at this point. In other words, there's little if any reliability difference between the last '18 car that rolled off the line and the first '19. Given Honda's reliability track record and the lack of any significant changes, I'd go for the '18 if it's a significant price advantage.
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RickBoglehead
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by RickBoglehead »

How long will you keep it? A 2018 will be depreciated for resale a year more, even if the same physical age.
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MathWizard
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by MathWizard »

I would have suggested going with the 2018, but given your reasoning for waiting for the 2019, you
should have bought a 2017 when the 2018 came out.

For marital accord, I would go with the 2019.
Topic Author
markfaix
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by markfaix »

RickBoglehead wrote: Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:10 pm How long will you keep it? A 2018 will be depreciated for resale a year more, even if the same physical age.
We would expect to keep it 8-10 yrs, 150-200K miles.
-buzz-
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by -buzz- »

markfaix wrote: Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:34 pm
We would expect to keep it 8-10 yrs, 150-200K miles.
By the time you plan to sell it, the depreciation curve will be pretty flat so one model year difference won't matter much. Condition and mileage will matter more to the buyer.

Financially, a $1,000 savings on the older year will probably more than offset the difference in resale 8-10 years from now.

We kept our last Odyssey 10 years and sold it around 150k miles. People were lining up to buy it.
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dwickenh
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by dwickenh »

Maybe a 2017 with 12000 miles would be a better bet.
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-buzz-
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Re: Buy year end 2018 van vs. 2019 model

Post by -buzz- »

dwickenh wrote: Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:33 pm Maybe a 2017 with 12000 miles would be a better bet.
True, but finding one might be harder than you think.

Last time we bought a van was in 2016.

I really wanted to save some money and buy a low-mileage, used van. I watched the ads for a couple of months. I was surprised by the lack of choices within any reasonable driving distance.

Most were either base models or priced really close to new. Almost all were on dealer lots and priced accordingly (i.e. high). It was rare to see a low mileage minivan being sold privately.

Just for fun, I just searched Autotrader for a Toyota Sienna, 2017, with 15k miles or less within a 200 mile radius. There is exactly one for sale. It is a lower end trim and the seller is asking above KBB average for private party sale.
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