Death - Prediction

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
tampaite
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Death - Prediction

Post by tampaite » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:28 pm

At what age do you think you'll die and how much money would you intend to leave behind for your kids and spouse?

For some with chronic condition, it might be easy to answer similar to some with challenging professions think soldiers

This is a rhetoric question but I hope to spark debate about saving, living and then leaving inheritance behind.

We have lots of discussion around "I want $x before I turn Y" that we seem to forget life can end at anytime.

JBTX
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by JBTX » Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:31 pm

This should be interesting.

bangkokphuket
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by bangkokphuket » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:12 am

tampaite wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:28 pm
At what age do you think you'll die and how much money would you intend to leave behind for your kids and spouse?

For some with chronic condition, it might be easy to answer similar to some with challenging professions think soldiers

This is a rhetoric question but I hope to spark debate about saving, living and then leaving inheritance behind.

We have lots of discussion around "I want $x before I turn Y" that we seem to forget life can end at anytime.
Im in my mid 30s, with a genetic chronic disease that on average eat up 10+ years, plus the quality of the final 10, so I may be good until mid 60s then push through another 10 if Im lucky. Honestly dont see myself celebrating a 75

No kids, vasectomy, and portfolio of almost 1 million and living in a very low cost area, makes the next 30 years a nice ride offsetting some of the health challenges. Also not sure until when I will be healthy enough to work hard, so been saving it all now planning for the rainy days.

Loving life in the meanwhile...

B4Xt3r
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by B4Xt3r » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:23 am

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/lewk3.htm

Using the above data, I project a year of death + standard deviation. I have no reason to believe I won't be similar to the average.

HongKonger
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by HongKonger » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 am

I will be leaving nothing to no one and will put my lights out whenever I so choose to.

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tennisplyr
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by tennisplyr » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:04 am

I'm in my late 60s and my back of envelope estimate is for about another 15-20 years. I'm not overly conservative so I use that for my financial guesstimates. Don't have a formal plan/goal for leaving money on the table....it will be what it will be. Enjoy your day :happy
Those who move forward with a happy spirit will find that things always work out.

likegarden
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by likegarden » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:27 am

Those data are interesting - as a white male at 78 I have the lowest average life expectancy compared to any other group in above data, and at the same age as my father lived to. Being healthy and having healthy habits I could perhaps gain a little though.

RudyS
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by RudyS » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:31 am

At my physical exam, while Doc was checking joint movement, he asked me, "how long do you plan to stay around, anyway?" So I gave him my father's age when he passed, plus a few more years. That would be a "ripe old age." He didn't comment. BUT I realized later I should have said, "You're the doctor, you tell me!" The age I gave him was "exactly" what the above-cited table shows!

KlangFool
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by KlangFool » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:42 am

OP,

My older brother passed his full physical exam with flying color. Then, he fainted in the bathroom and he was rushed to emergency room. They found an inoperable brain tumor in his head. He died a few months later.

I know that I live now. And, I will enjoy what I can now. It is pointless to predict when I will die. I always plan to make sure that I am ready if I am gone tomorrow.

Financially, my AA and investment will do fine even if someone does nothing for 5 years. My wife has access to all the accounts and I make sure that she knows how to access all those accounts. We practice that.

A bigger picture question that everyone in Boglehead forum should ask is

Is my investment plan too complex for my spouse? Can my spouse handle the financial aspect if I cannot do it?

KlangFool

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greg24
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by greg24 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:43 am

B4Xt3r wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:23 am
I have no reason to believe I won't be similar to the average.
Longevity is correlated with income and wealth, which is above average around here.

Walkure
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Walkure » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:45 am

HongKonger wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 am
I will be leaving nothing to no one
That's a double negative - if no one's left with nothing, that means everybody has to get at least something from your estate. :greedy

rec7
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by rec7 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:54 am

No male in my family has lived past 77. I don't plan to either. I am younger but I think God is telling me I won't. It does come with a benefit it makes retirement planning easier than others have it.
Disclaimer: You might lose money doing anything I say. Although that was not my intent. | Favorite song: Sometimes He Whispers Jay Parrack

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DanMahowny
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:04 am

No clue when I'll die, but I expect to live "a life worth living" up to age 75. I plan to spend down my assets accordingly.

I'm okay with living into my 80's nearly broke.
Funding secured

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:09 am

I have a life spreadsheet with everything predicted. Tax advantaged accounts, college costs, travel expenses, for every year until I'm 85. Then I die. I think I picked the day....I'll have to check that.

(I'm an engineer......are you surprised?)
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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rob
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by rob » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:13 am

The old joke is I want to go like my grandfather quietly in his sleep - not like the passengers in his cars screaming for their lives as they ran off the road :D

I dunno.... It's about quality of life for me - and I suspect most people. I hope to live no longer than I'm aware of my own life with a reasonable quality as I can imagine some grim scenarios that I know are far from uncommon. I would be fine in the 70 something's I guess.

Edit: I plan for longer for $ and the kids will just get the overage error.
| Rob | Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien

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DanMahowny
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:16 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:09 am
I have a life spreadsheet with everything predicted. Tax advantaged accounts, college costs, travel expenses, for every year until I'm 85. Then I die. I think I picked the day....I'll have to check that.

(I'm an engineer......are you surprised?)
Love this post. Nice job man.
Funding secured

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Raymond
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Raymond » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:17 am

Sometime between one minute from now (when a garbage truck goes out of control and crushes me as I sit at my desk at home) and thirty years from now (shot by a jealous husband as I escape out a window.) :P
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"

DrewDogs63
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by DrewDogs63 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:18 am

Males in my family don't live past 70. So I guess planning for myself to pass at 75 is safe. My Wife is a different story. Their family reunions are full of women 95+ years old. I am convinced they have found the fountain of youth and only pass it to the females.

As a new father, I don't plan to leave any money to my child(ren). I plan to provide my children with the tools/experiences while they are growing to make their own way in life.

If there is anything left over, I plan to give to charity.

That's my plan.. we will see what my wife decides in the 30+ years I am not around

:beer

Drew

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:25 am

rob wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:13 am
The old joke is I want to go like my grandfather quietly in his sleep - not like the passengers in his cars screaming for their lives as they ran off the road :D

I dunno.... It's about quality of life for me - and I suspect most people. I hope to live no longer than I'm aware of my own life with a reasonable quality as I can imagine some grim scenarios that I know are far from uncommon. I would be fine in the 70 something's I guess.

Edit: I plan for longer for $ and the kids will just get the overage error.
That about sums it up for me as well.

I have already lived nine years longer than either of my parents, so I figure it has been all gravy for quite a while. I can't imagine having an acceptable quality of life more than ten years from now, so my prediction is somewhere within the next ten years.

I see no need to scrimp and save at this juncture, but also no reason to spend like a drunken sailor as that would not add any happiness to my life. I figure I will leave some unused cash behind for my wife and kids, and I think we are all ok with that.

dickyboy
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by dickyboy » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:31 am

Walkure wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:45 am
HongKonger wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 am
I will be leaving nothing to no one
That's a double negative - if no one's left with nothing, that means everybody has to get at least something from your estate. :greedy
You be correct Walkure...I spotted that double negative from HongKonger too. You be and English major? You certainly be gooder at grammar than that HongKonger person.

HongKonger
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by HongKonger » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:33 am

Walkure wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:45 am
HongKonger wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 am
I will be leaving nothing to no one
That's a double negative - if no one's left with nothing, that means everybody has to get at least something from your estate. :greedy
But saying that I have no one to leave anything to and plan to spend every penny before I go just isn't as pithy.

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Sheepdog
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Sheepdog » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:39 am

Who? Me? Predict? Silly exercise for me. I had a heart attack just before reaching 65. My prediction then? Less than 10 years. And, my father died at 61, my sister at 73. Silly exercise.
Now I am 85, just 2 days ago blacktop coated my 3000 sq. ft driveway, cleaned the gutters, cut my 1/2 acre lawn with a walk behind mower. Silly exercise. If I had to predict now? One more year, one more decade, one more day. I don't know. What will be, won't be. Silly exercise.
As far as money goes, same thing. Long term care is the kangaroo in my crawl space, how high can he jump. Will there be an inheritance? Maybe some, maybe a lot, maybe very little. My kids may get some, but they don't need it. They were taught to fish for themselves. A couple of charities could receive a legacy including one which will receive our house and I know they hope to receive them, but LTC could take care of that.
I won't, I don't care to predict any longer. 15 years from now I would be 100 and maybe I will coat my driveway again according to my 3 year renewal schedule. :P
Damn right...I am lucky. No more silly exercises.
It's not what you gather, but what you scatter which tells what kind of life you have lived---Helen Walton

Broken Man 1999
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:42 am

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:42 am
OP,

My older brother passed his full physical exam with flying color. Then, he fainted in the bathroom and he was rushed to emergency room. They found an inoperable brain tumor in his head. He died a few months later.

I know that I live now. And, I will enjoy what I can now. It is pointless to predict when I will die. I always plan to make sure that I am ready if I am gone tomorrow.

Financially, my AA and investment will do fine even if someone does nothing for 5 years. My wife has access to all the accounts and I make sure that she knows how to access all those accounts. We practice that.

A bigger picture question that everyone in Boglehead forum should ask is

Is my investment plan too complex for my spouse? Can my spouse handle the financial aspect if I cannot do it?

KlangFool
KlangFool, I bolded some of your post. Indeed, your text is what one should concentrate on, IMHO.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

mouses
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by mouses » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:48 am

rob wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:13 am
I dunno.... It's about quality of life for me - and I suspect most people. I hope to live no longer than I'm aware of my own life with a reasonable quality as I can imagine some grim scenarios that I know are far from uncommon. I would be fine in the 70 something's I guess.
Thus writes a young person. Now that I'm in my 70s, I'm astonished at how non-elderly I and my ilk feel, regardless of our physical state. Inside every 70-90s year old, there is a 20 year old self-image, to judge by my ilk. Also, when someone refers to a 60s as "elderly," I am going What??

My Dad passed away just before 63, so did most of his family, but they were smokers or lived surrounded by cigarette smoke. My Mother and most of her siblings in their early 80s. On the other hand, her Mom made it to her mid-90s.

I took Social Security at the earliest possibly time due to Dad's experience. When CDs were earning 6%, I could have lived as long as my grandmother and more, no worries, Now, I am kind of worried :-) but I plan to have to be dragged out kicking and screaming.

Ron
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Ron » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:51 am

My personal hope is that I die one day after my disabled son, who is expected to have a normal lifespan.

Without family/friends, all the money in the world will not protect him after I/his mother are gone. As the saying goes, "life sucks, and then you die".

Reality is brutal, sometimes.

- Ron

LiterallyIronic
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by LiterallyIronic » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:56 am

I'm 34 now and I have two living grandparents (my dad's dad and my mom's mom). My grandpa is in his 80s and he still walks about 10 miles every morning, even in the Winter when it's sub-freezing outside. We have no history of chronic diseases, heart problems, or cancer in my family. I do not smoke, nor drink. Unless I die in some kind of accident, I have no reason to believe I'll go before 80, but I'm shooting for 100. Nobody that I know of in my family has reached that, though - the oldest I know of was my great-grandmother who died at age 96 about a decade ago. My wife, however, has no interest in making it past age 75.

I have no interest in leaving money behind for heirs; I'd rather bounce my last check. However, in the event that I go first, I have documents together in an easy-to-read format so my wife can figure out what's what.

wm631
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by wm631 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:57 am

Yours is the most interesting reply to me. Blacktopping, weekly cutting a half-acre, cleaning gutters (very old dude on a 12' foot ladder - great ...). At 85, why? Isn't there anything else you want to explore before moving into the Great Dark? Your time, as you seem to understand well, is running out.

Not necessarily judging - just curious. Also, your wife - is she protected?

dad2000
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by dad2000 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:57 am

https://www.livingto100.com tells me 103.

I have multiple centinarians in my blood lines, so I guess this is a reasonable estimate, but it makes for challenging financial planning. I will do everything I can to not live past the point where I lose my dignity.

I'm not planning to leave much behind (other than $ for grandkids or great-grandkids education), but with potentially 50 years to go, I may have far more or far less than my projections, and have no idea what society might be like. We'll see.

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Sheepdog
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Sheepdog » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:00 am

Ron wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:51 am
My personal hope is that I die one day after my disabled son, who is expected to have a normal lifespan.

Without family/friends, all the money in the world will not protect him after I/his mother are gone. As the saying goes, "life sucks, and then you die".

Reality is brutal, sometimes.

- Ron
Ron, you and your family are special. You are inspirational May the loving God be with you all.
Jim
It's not what you gather, but what you scatter which tells what kind of life you have lived---Helen Walton

wm631
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by wm631 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:02 am

Sheepdog wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:39 am
Who? Me? Predict? Silly exercise for me. I had a heart attack just before reaching 65. My prediction then? Less than 10 years. And, my father died at 61, my sister at 73. Silly exercise.
Now I am 85, just 2 days ago blacktop coated my 3000 sq. ft driveway, cleaned the gutters, cut my 1/2 acre lawn with a walk behind mower. Silly exercise. If I had to predict now? One more year, one more decade, one more day. I don't know. What will be, won't be. Silly exercise.
As far as money goes, same thing. Long term care is the kangaroo in my crawl space, how high can he jump. Will there be an inheritance? Maybe some, maybe a lot, maybe very little. My kids may get some, but they don't need it. They were taught to fish for themselves. A couple of charities could receive a legacy including one which will receive our house and I know they hope to receive them, but LTC could take care of that.
I won't, I don't care to predict any longer. 15 years from now I would be 100 and maybe I will coat my driveway again according to my 3 year renewal schedule. :P
Damn right...I am lucky. No more silly exercises.


Yours is the most interesting reply to me. Blacktopping, weekly cutting a half-acre, cleaning gutters (very old dude on a 12' foot ladder - great ...). At 85, why? Isn't there anything else you want to explore before moving into the Great Dark? Your time, as you seem to understand well, is running out.

Not necessarily judging - just curious. Also, your wife - is she protected?

annielouise
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by annielouise » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:05 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:09 am
I have a life spreadsheet with everything predicted. Tax advantaged accounts, college costs, travel expenses, for every year until I'm 85. Then I die. I think I picked the day....I'll have to check that.

(I'm an engineer......are you surprised?)
My Dad made a list of everything he had to get done in June 1986 before their 35th wedding anniversary on 4th of July weekend. At the bottom, he wrote "die" as a joke, since the list was so ambitious. He didn't wake up on July 4th, so we had a funeral rather than the anniversary party. And, no, he had not finished everything else on the list. He was 59.

For me, I figure split my parent's death ages, so 68 seems about right. Trying to leave things organized for my husband who parents seem to be immortal.

GCD
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by GCD » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:11 am

I refuse to participate. My goal is to live long enough to download my brain to a robot. Then I will live forever and let compounding make me a vigintillionaire.

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Sheepdog
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Sheepdog » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:20 am

wm631 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:02 am


Yours is the most interesting reply to me. Blacktopping, weekly cutting a half-acre, cleaning gutters (very old dude on a 12' foot ladder - great ...). At 85, why? Isn't there anything else you want to explore before moving into the Great Dark? Your time, as you seem to understand well, is running out.

Not necessarily judging - just curious. Also, your wife - is she protected?
I do those things because I enjoy doing them. They aren't tedious to me. I look forward to doing them. That's me and us. We have season tickets to Colts games. Season tickets to several entertainment venues so that we attend something at least weekly, and often more. I volunteer at our Children's Museum weekly and read to kindergartners at a school often. They are nourishment for the soul.

Is my wife protected? Yes, as much as she will allow.
It's not what you gather, but what you scatter which tells what kind of life you have lived---Helen Walton

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Alexa9
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Alexa9 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:32 am

Interesting topic, I think it depends on quality of life past 80 and if I even want to live. It depends on how healthy my mind and body is. Personally, I think the expensive end of life treatment to keep terminally ill people alive in their 90's is somewhat of a burden on the healthcare system. I wouldn't want to drag out my death for a month in a hospital is my point. I think if I make it to 85 I'll go skydiving without a parachute for my birthday (joking) :P

mouses
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by mouses » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:45 am

Alexa9 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:32 am
I think the expensive end of life treatment to keep terminally ill people alive in their 90's is somewhat of a burden on the healthcare system.
I can think of much greater burdens on the health care system, like pharmaceutical companies charging thousands of times the research and production costs of cancer meds or other absolutely necessary meds.

B4Xt3r
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by B4Xt3r » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:07 am

likegarden wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:27 am
Those data are interesting - as a white male at 78 I have the lowest average life expectancy compared to any other group in above data, and at the same age as my father lived to. Being healthy and having healthy habits I could perhaps gain a little though.
Be careful, its only 78 *when you are born.* Every year that you live increases your likelyhood to live longer. Example, a 78 year white male has a much longer life expectancy than 78, probably mid 80s atleast.

Church Lady
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Church Lady » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:11 am

1) "We plan, and God laughs"

For planning purposes, I'm going to live to 100. My withdrawal rate is currently below the
perpetual withdrawal rate so I guess the whole bundle is going to my heirs.

But there are practicalities.

2) My heirs are all relatives. Frankly, none of us are in peak health. I might outlive them all!

Or not. See (1).

3) I could go to a great deal of trouble and expense making my portfolio easy for heirs to manage, but I have a feeling they will cash it out regardless of any instruction I leave.

4) Medical expenses are a huge unknown, and could easily suck up a lifetime of savings.

5) I can see myself unable to keep up with a detached single family house when I am in my seventies or so. If I'm alive, I'll move to low maintenance housing. Housing costs a decade or more out are a huge unknown.

6) Future taxes are a huge unknown. When national debt soars and Congress eyes retirement savings safe out of taxes' reach, who knows what rapacious scheme they will concoct?

(4), (5), and (6) are all ways of saying I may not be able to stick to perpetual withdrawal rate, regardless of my intentions.

(7) It's sad to live frugally in retirement if you strictly speaking do not have to, is it not?
Last edited by Church Lady on Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
He that loveth silver shall not be satisfied with silver; nor he that loveth abundance with increase: this is also vanity. Ecclesiastes 1:8

2015
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by 2015 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:15 am

I've never found cookies in a spreadsheet, never in a financial article or blog post of any sort, and never in finding that extra dollar or buying that extra shirt. Cookies have always shown up in a cookie jar, out there, and always in a place beyond where I think I'm capable of reaching. As long as they keep showing up, as long as the horizon keeps expanding, I'll stay in this game because it's pretty amazing dying to old habits of thought while learning something new just about every day.

OTOH, actual, physical death is immaterial to me.

Teague
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Teague » Fri Jun 08, 2018 11:53 am

dickyboy wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:31 am
Walkure wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 8:45 am
HongKonger wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:25 am
I will be leaving nothing to no one
That's a double negative - if no one's left with nothing, that means everybody has to get at least something from your estate. :greedy
You be correct Walkure...I spotted that double negative from HongKonger too. You be and English major? You certainly be gooder at grammar than that HongKonger person.
While it may be formally incorrect, I will be leaving nothing to no one shows strong command of the language by using a colloquialism for emphasis and tone.

This sort of thing reminds me of an incident several years ago. I had a student rotating through my work who saw me do something in a non-standard manner. The student, wanting to impress me with their vast knowledge of the subject, gently pointed out "Er, umm, Dr. Teague, with all respect, the standard textbook covering such cases prescribes a different procedure than what you just did."

My reply: "Yes, it does, but this case is not typical. By the way, kindly note that I wrote that chapter." :happy

As far as how long I will live, I have no idea. But on my last run of the Fidelity calculator, at age 102 I should have about 0.5 to 1.5 million dollars, depending on market returns.
Semper Augustus

wm631
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by wm631 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:02 pm

Sheepdog wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:20 am
wm631 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:02 am


Yours is the most interesting reply to me. Blacktopping, weekly cutting a half-acre, cleaning gutters (very old dude on a 12' foot ladder - great ...). At 85, why? Isn't there anything else you want to explore before moving into the Great Dark? Your time, as you seem to understand well, is running out.

Not necessarily judging - just curious. Also, your wife - is she protected?
I do those things because I enjoy doing them. They aren't tedious to me. I look forward to doing them. That's me and us. We have season tickets to Colts games. Season tickets to several entertainment venues so that we attend something at least weekly, and often more. I volunteer at our Children's Museum weekly and read to kindergartners at a school often. They are nourishment for the soul.

Is my wife protected? Yes, as much as she will allow.

Yeah, ok. Good.

But I remember an old episode of "Lassie" as a kid. Grandpa was cleaning out the gutters, or fixing the barn roof or something. The ladder fell. Grandpa spent the rest of the show clinging to the rafters (at one point he cried out "I'm too old to die ...") Lassie had to come in at the end and save him.

Please be sure your next-of-kin affairs are taken care of for your wife before your next, um, excellent adventure.

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Toons
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Toons » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:10 pm

Sheepdog wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:39 am
Who? Me? Predict? Silly exercise for me. I had a heart attack just before reaching 65. My prediction then? Less than 10 years. And, my father died at 61, my sister at 73. Silly exercise.
Now I am 85, just 2 days ago blacktop coated my 3000 sq. ft driveway, cleaned the gutters, cut my 1/2 acre lawn with a walk behind mower. Silly exercise. If I had to predict now? One more year, one more decade, one more day. I don't know. What will be, won't be. Silly exercise.
As far as money goes, same thing. Long term care is the kangaroo in my crawl space, how high can he jump. Will there be an inheritance? Maybe some, maybe a lot, maybe very little. My kids may get some, but they don't need it. They were taught to fish for themselves. A couple of charities could receive a legacy including one which will receive our house and I know they hope to receive them, but LTC could take care of that.
I won't, I don't care to predict any longer. 15 years from now I would be 100 and maybe I will coat my driveway again according to my 3 year renewal schedule. :P
Damn right...I am lucky. No more silly exercises.
OH my Goodness Sheepdog,,I got chills reading your post ,,,I copied and pasted it to a text document and I am going to re read it at least once per week.....You summed everything up,,,,one day at a time is how we live it.
One of the best posts ever
Many more years for you
Thanks,,,Toons.


:sharebeer :sharebeer :sharebeer
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

Glockenspiel
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Glockenspiel » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:14 pm

My dad smoked a pack of cigarettes a day for about 45 years and ended up dying of Liver Cancer (even though he probably only drank 5 beers a year) at the age of 63.

I'm much more well off than my parents were and I've never smoked, so I'm hoping to get to 85. I'm 33 now.

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:30 pm

mouses wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:45 am
Alexa9 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:32 am
I think the expensive end of life treatment to keep terminally ill people alive in their 90's is somewhat of a burden on the healthcare system.
I can think of much greater burdens on the health care system, like pharmaceutical companies charging thousands of times the research and production costs of cancer meds or other absolutely necessary meds.
You point the finger at pharmaceuticals, just remember though, those same companies are the ones actually taking the risks to discover these molecules that save your life, the others, well they are just "fluff".
Last edited by Grt2bOutdoors on Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

Grt2bOutdoors
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:33 pm

I make no predictions - life is unpredictable. I've seen healthy individuals one day and the next you're visiting the funeral home for their service. I've seen those who have every health problem you can think of live to reasonable ages as one could expect in a normal setting. There is no rhyme or reason. Enjoy your life, every second of it. I know I am in my own way.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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jabberwockOG
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by jabberwockOG » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:42 pm

In my early 60's, several friends in early 70's are still very energetic and fit. Genetics plays a big part in longevity but people can also age at vastly different rates based on how well they take care of themselves, and how active and positive they remain in retirement. I'm hoping for around 78-83-ish. It seems most white males have a tough time getting past that age range even if they working hard to stay fit. In terms of wealth/portfolio my plan takes into account my wife's very long lived family so we are set up so she will be fine out to about 100 if the market does below average. In an average or above average market she could live forever and be OK.

megabad
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by megabad » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:57 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:09 am
I have a life spreadsheet with everything predicted. Tax advantaged accounts, college costs, travel expenses, for every year until I'm 85. Then I die. I think I picked the day....I'll have to check that.
Awesome. This. Mine is actually sliding depending on how much money I save and the inflation numbers. I basically plan to die when I run out of money. I think the run up in the stock market has me out to 92 or so now.

TravelforFun
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by TravelforFun » Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:58 pm

My Dad died at 36, my Mom is 90 and still going, and I'm 66. They say your mother's longevity affects you more than your father's and I hope they're right and am delaying my SS benefits to 70.

Because the compounding interest is the strongest force in the universe per Einstein, I'm certain that the longer my wife and I live, the bigger pile we're going to leave to our kids, grandkids, and causes we support.

TravelforFun

mouses
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by mouses » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:27 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:14 pm
My dad smoked a pack of cigarettes a day for about 45 years and ended up dying of Liver Cancer (even though he probably only drank 5 beers a year) at the age of 63.

I'm much more well off than my parents were and I've never smoked, so I'm hoping to get to 85. I'm 33 now.
Smoking damages the liver as well as the more obvious organs. There is no end to what it has its fingers in.

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pondering
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by pondering » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:33 pm

B4Xt3r wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:23 am
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality/lewk3.htm

Using the above data, I project a year of death + standard deviation. I have no reason to believe I won't be similar to the average.
Great link, thanks
--Robert Sterbal | 412-977-3526 call/text

mouses
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Re: Death - Prediction

Post by mouses » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:37 pm

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:30 pm
You point the finger at pharmaceuticals, just remember though, those same companies are the ones actually taking the risks to discover these molecules that save your life, the others, well they are just "fluff".
I used to believe that stuff about the staggering price increases being needed to cover research costs. Then the NYTimes wrote an article and included pharma employees laughing about how they had jacked up the price of an end of life cancer med to $100,000 a month from something comparatively minor. Also look at the Epipen and PharmaBro.

Note also that taxpayers are funding some of that research.

I have no doubt the supply chain has all sorts of profiteering going on, but a giant part of it is the corrupt pharmaceutical companies, of that I have no doubt.

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