Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

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jb3
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Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by jb3 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am

Are Bogleheads changing their car buying strategies in light of the new "active" safety technologies now available?

In the past when it was time for a new car I bought a 2-3 year old CPO low-trim level model of a quality brand (Toyota, Honda, etc.) and kept it for 10 years or so.

However, the active safety technologies coming out now have thrown a wrench into that strategy. These technologies, particularly the autonomous braking systems, seem to truly make a difference in safety.

But while this tech is becoming more widespread, for the most part they are still expensive options on higher trim levels. Especially on the 2-3 year old cars I am looking at. A new car is out of my price range, not to mention the depreciation hit.

Bottom line: I cannot go to a base or lower trim model and get the safest car anymore. In my current car search this is adding $6-8k more to every vehicle I am looking at. That's a significant number for me.

mega317
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by mega317 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:54 am

There will always be some new thing. Every 2-3 year old car will be missing some features that the higher trim news cars have. You still shouldn't buy more than can/want to afford. I am not aware of any data showing any specific technology makes a significant difference.

jb3
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by jb3 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:12 pm

I disagree. Active crash avoidance is significant.

IIHS is now including front crash *prevention* in their tests and safety ratings.

http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/autom ... icoverview

Example:
http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicl ... r-suv/2017

golfCaddy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by golfCaddy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:13 pm

My view is the biggest risk on the road comes from the other drivers who may be drunk, high, falling asleep, texting, etc. Don't buy a car that's more expensive than you can afford just to get the latest tech.

MarkBarb
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by MarkBarb » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:21 pm

New? My car is 12 years old and has collision mitigation braking. The tech is getting better and more widespread, but I'd hardly call it new.

As for your question, my kids have been reaching driving age (one now driving the other getting there this year). I definitely weight active safety measures highly, particularly because they are young an inexperienced.

mega317
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by mega317 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:26 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:12 pm
I disagree. Active crash avoidance is significant.
I actually don't see too many statistically significant numbers in the linked studies that I clicked (which was not all of them). And very little in the way of absolute numbers. If there's around 1 death per 100 million miles, and a safety feature reduces that to 0.75, is that worth paying another few thousand dollars for? I can't answer that for you but I can for me.

TravelGeek
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by TravelGeek » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:36 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Are Bogleheads changing their car buying strategies in light of the new "active" safety technologies now available?
Some are, some aren’t. I personally don’t mind spending money on safety technologies.

MnD
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by MnD » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:36 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Are Bogleheads changing their car buying strategies in light of the new "active" safety technologies now available?
We keep our trucks and cars almost 15 years on average so I guess not.
When we get a new car it's a big "everything" upgrade including safety!

Two people lifetime vehicles - both age 55.
Her: 69 Volvo wagon used, 87 Toyota Corolla new, 97 Subaru Outback new, 2010 Nissan Altima hybrid new
Him: 77 Datsun pickup used, 89 Mazda Pickup new, 2005 Toyota Pickup new

invst65
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by invst65 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:41 pm

I have always bought brand new but cheap cars (like Dodge and Hyundai), usually in the lowest trim model but I finally splurged and bought a new CRV-EX, mostly for my wife to drive to work while she's still working and I am not.

The new technology is amazing.

I greatly appreciate the rear-view camera and blind spot detection. The former is a big help if you have a stiff neck like I do. The blind spot detection gives you a blinking light in the side view mirrors on both sides when there is someone coming up behind you and although I haven't seen it happen yet it is supposed to sound a warning if you have the turn signal on. I can think of a few close calls when that that would have been appreciated, especially the time I almost ran a car who was in my blind spot off the road and it turned out to be a police car.

Haven't had a chance to try the Adaptive Cruise control yet but from what I've seen the car will practically drive itself on the freeway.
Last edited by invst65 on Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:39 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Hulu
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by Hulu » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:44 pm

I have little scientific evidence but read about safety as best I could last year when car shopping. As far as I could tell these were ways to reduce serious car injuries...

Drive only as much as needed
Remove distractions including speed and fatigue
Drive when it's less likely that drunk people are on the road
Daytime usually better than night
Drive a heavier and more crashworthy car
Don't drive in poor conditions...but have good tires if you must

I think car safety is paramount. But I don't think the new tech does all that much. Seat belts, sobriety, air bags, high grade steel/aluminum, alertness, luck and practicality seem much more influential to me. My guess is that the next meaningful innovation will be high speed self driving.

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Watty
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by Watty » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:50 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Bottom line: I cannot go to a base or lower trim model and get the safest car anymore. In my current car search this is adding $6-8k more to every vehicle I am looking at. That's a significant number for me.
That is not true for the new cars.

Toyota added advanced safety features to all their cars for 2018 and some of them in 2017. I just bought a new 2018 Corolla because of this for a very reasonable price which was a bit over $15K, which was a little over $17K out the door with local taxes and tags.

The features vary some by model but even the Yaris has most of the safety features.

These should be available as CPO cars in a couple of years.

MathWizard
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by MathWizard » Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:54 pm

I have not changed my habits yet, but am hoping to buy an autonomous car , perhaps as an off lease car in a few years.

We are getting old enough, and keep cars long enough that we may need that, or lose the ability to get around easily.

I did look at a Tesla, but minimum price for what I wanted was 60K, and that was not true self drive.

TravelGeek
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by TravelGeek » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:21 pm

invst65 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:41 pm
Haven't had a chance to try the Adaptive Cruise control yet but from what I've seen the car will practically drive itself on the freeway.
I love it on our 2017 Forester. And the rental car I picked up yesterday, a Toyota CR-H Hybrid, has it, too. Works great.

stoptothink
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by stoptothink » Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:52 pm

mega317 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:26 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:12 pm
I disagree. Active crash avoidance is significant.
I actually don't see too many statistically significant numbers in the linked studies that I clicked (which was not all of them). And very little in the way of absolute numbers. If there's around 1 death per 100 million miles, and a safety feature reduces that to 0.75, is that worth paying another few thousand dollars for? I can't answer that for you but I can for me.
+1

whomever
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by whomever » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:20 pm

Something like half of auto accident fatalities are the result of head injuries. A top of the line helmet costs maybe $150, so wearing a helmet is likely to be the most bogleheadish solution.

One potential fly in the ointment is that some states, paradoxically, outlaw wearing helmets in cars.


ETA: a good defensive driving course might provide good value as well.
Last edited by whomever on Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dominic
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by Dominic » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:27 pm

Watty wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:50 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Bottom line: I cannot go to a base or lower trim model and get the safest car anymore. In my current car search this is adding $6-8k more to every vehicle I am looking at. That's a significant number for me.
That is not true for the new cars.

Toyota added advanced safety features to all their cars for 2018 and some of them in 2017. I just bought a new 2018 Corolla because of this for a very reasonable price which was a bit over $15K, which was a little over $17K out the door with local taxes and tags.

The features vary some by model but even the Yaris has most of the safety features.

These should be available as CPO cars in a couple of years.
I believe Mazda includes several active features standard as well.

Additionally, Honda Sensing is a $1,000 add-on package for many of their cars and comes with many active safety features. Some models, such as the Accord, have it standard.

If active safety features prevent one major accident over the life of the car, or one fender-bender early in the life of the car, then it pays off. If not, then it's a $1,000 loss for peace of mind (and maybe a small car insurance premium decrease). I understand that I'm statistically going to lose money by adding safety features when I buy a new car, but I'll probably do it anyway.

thangngo
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by thangngo » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:35 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Are Bogleheads changing their car buying strategies in light of the new "active" safety technologies now available?

In the past when it was time for a new car I bought a 2-3 year old CPO low-trim level model of a quality brand (Toyota, Honda, etc.) and kept it for 10 years or so.

However, the active safety technologies coming out now have thrown a wrench into that strategy. These technologies, particularly the autonomous braking systems, seem to truly make a difference in safety.

But while this tech is becoming more widespread, for the most part they are still expensive options on higher trim levels. Especially on the 2-3 year old cars I am looking at. A new car is out of my price range, not to mention the depreciation hit.

Bottom line: I cannot go to a base or lower trim model and get the safest car anymore. In my current car search this is adding $6-8k more to every vehicle I am looking at. That's a significant number for me.
The technologies is only as good as the driver is. If you drive safely, you'll be safe. The safety features do not make a car safe if you're distracted or under influence while driving.

Paying for current safety technology is a waste of money if you ask me.

livesoft
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by livesoft » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:36 pm

Subaru Eyesight is 3 years old now. I have friends that have something similar on older luxury SUVs.
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thangngo
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by thangngo » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:38 pm

Hulu wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:44 pm
I have little scientific evidence but read about safety as best I could last year when car shopping. As far as I could tell these were ways to reduce serious car injuries...

Drive only as much as needed
Remove distractions including speed and fatigue
Drive when it's less likely that drunk people are on the road
Daytime usually better than night
Drive a heavier and more crashworthy car
Don't drive in poor conditions...but have good tires if you must

I think car safety is paramount. But I don't think the new tech does all that much. Seat belts, sobriety, air bags, high grade steel/aluminum, alertness, luck and practicality seem much more influential to me. My guess is that the next meaningful innovation will be high speed self driving.
+1 :sharebeer

TravelGeek
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by TravelGeek » Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:40 pm

thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:35 pm
The technologies is only as good as the driver is. If you drive safely, you'll be safe. The safety features do not make a car safe if you're distracted or under influence while driving.
Actually, I think the exact opposite is true - they might very well keep a distracted or otherwise bad driver from hitting me. Bad drivers should definitely get them. Of course, I realize that everyone thinks they are an above average driver.

thangngo
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by thangngo » Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:57 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:40 pm
thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:35 pm
The technologies is only as good as the driver is. If you drive safely, you'll be safe. The safety features do not make a car safe if you're distracted or under influence while driving.
Actually, I think the exact opposite is true - they might very well keep a distracted or otherwise bad driver from hitting me. Bad drivers should definitely get them. Of course, I realize that everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
You missed my point. The safety technologies is only as good as the driver is. In other words, if you are a distracted or drunk driver, technologies won't help.

Also, it certainty won't help prevent a distracted or otherwise bad drive from hitting you. Are you buying them automatic driving car so that they won't hit you? If you keep your eyes on the road and pay attention of the moving traffic, there's no reason to rely on "beeping sounds alert" and "automatic breaking".
Of course, I realize that everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
This has nothing to do with my argument.

It's your money. Do what you must.

hudson
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by hudson » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:36 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Are Bogleheads changing their car buying strategies in light of the new "active" safety technologies now available?
I am. I won't buy a new vehicle without a pre-collision system for vehicles/pedestrians and the lane departure system. I test drove a vehicle where a blinking amber light came on in the outside mirrors whenever a vehicle was in my blind spot; I liked that. Many vehicle mirrors just don't cover the blind spot well. On my wife's vehicle, I have to set both side mirrors way out to cover the blind spot.

On the other hand, I have a friend that bought a new 2018 Toyota Highlander. As a salesman, he's driving daily. He despises the lane departure feature and turned it off. He wishes that he would have purchased a 2017 without the extra safety features.

To each his own.

inbox788
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by inbox788 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:48 pm

invst65 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:41 pm
The new technology is amazing.
How do you KNOW that? Unless you're testing out the technology all the time (which makes you a very BAD driver), you really don't know that it's working. There is a lot of promise, but we're pretty much guinea pigs in this experiment, and we're footing the bill?!? Sure, airbags have saved countless lives, but early on, they killed smaller drivers and passengers, and now they're shrapnel roulette vs. self-disabling systems ("electrical circuit shorts in air bag control computers made by parts supplier ZF-TRW"). https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hy ... hs-n857701

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_47utWAoupo

https://wtop.com/consumer-news/2017/03/ ... e/slide/1/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ert.52420/
http://www.odyclub.com/forums/81-2018-o ... oying.html

Anyway, net-net, it's a little better in safety, but not a great value IMO. Seatbelts are a terrific value when used! (so use them!) I'm not against these new technologies, but I do find the industry using it as a profit center to be a bit distasteful.

The moral hazard is if the car brakes for me if I get too close, I will drive faster or tailgate more closely. And the thinking there's no such thing as too much safety, then bring back the 55 mph speed limits ("55 saves lives"). https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... 358366f71/ (No, this is not a serious position on unhallowed discussion, just a statement of past historic times. If/when technology allows cars to safely go 100 mph, I'm all for it. I'm just warming to the possibility that there is a better chance of this with more predictable machines in control than variable humans).

randomguy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by randomguy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:03 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:52 pm
mega317 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:26 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:12 pm
I disagree. Active crash avoidance is significant.
I actually don't see too many statistically significant numbers in the linked studies that I clicked (which was not all of them). And very little in the way of absolute numbers. If there's around 1 death per 100 million miles, and a safety feature reduces that to 0.75, is that worth paying another few thousand dollars for? I can't answer that for you but I can for me.
+1
-1. There have been several studies recently that pretty clearly show significant reduction in accident rates with the prior generation of technology (and the latest stuff is a bit better).

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/i ... -1.3449126

I would consider reducing rear end accidents by 40% to be pretty significant. The reductions due to lane change/keeping technology isn't as big but are still noticeable. I don't see the numbers in this article but adaptive headlights reduce night driving accidents by about 20%. Obviously nobody can tell you how much to value your personal safety.

jb3
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by jb3 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:04 pm

Even if you are an aware driver you can be affected by those who are not.

For example, a driver in a car in front of you is texting and accidentally slams their brakes. Or a deer runs in front of them or a dozen other similar scenarios cause them to brake suddenly.

As an aware driver, you are following at a safe distance and slam on your brakes as soon as your brain recognizes what's happening - but you still hit rear of the car in front of you.

Now imagine that scenario with autonomous braking: the computer senses the suddenly stopping car in front of you critical milliseconds before your brain can. The computer then automatically calculates the ideal braking pressure (using variables a human is not even aware of) and slows your car to a stop before hitting the car on front of you.

randomguy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by randomguy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:13 pm

livesoft wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:36 pm
Subaru Eyesight is 3 years old now. I have friends that have something similar on older luxury SUVs.
The tech dates back 7+ years on Subaru's, Volvos, MB and probably some others. What you will find though is that until the past couple of model years it was an feature with pretty low adoption rate AND only available on top level trims. And some of the early systems weren't as full featured (i.e. they didn't brake just flashed a warning sign).

Right now if you want stuff like this on a used car, you selection is pretty limited and you can end up having to buy more car than you want. In another 2-3 years the market will be flooded with Hondas, Toyotas and the rest with the tech. It is the same thing that we had with VSC a decade ago and ABS the 20 years ago. The tech will slowly filter its way down.

randomguy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by randomguy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:17 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:04 pm

As an aware driver, you are following at a safe distance and slam on your brakes as soon as your brain recognizes what's happening - but you still hit rear of the car in front of you.
By definition you were not following at a safe distance.:) In the real world I agree with you. Figuring out the distance you and the car in front (i.e. that controls how quickly you need to stop) is pretty much impossible and to some extent impractical (in a lot of situations, nobody will give you enough space).

At a high level pretty much all accidents are human failures (or multiple ones). Saying we need better drivers is easy. But I think it is about as effect as abstinence education.

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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by thangngo » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:25 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:04 pm
Even if you are an aware driver you can be affected by those who are not.

For example, a driver in a car in front of you is texting and accidentally slams their brakes. Or a deer runs in front of them or a dozen other similar scenarios cause them to brake suddenly.

As an aware driver, you are following at a safe distance and slam on your brakes as soon as your brain recognizes what's happening - but you still hit rear of the car in front of you.

Now imagine that scenario with autonomous braking: the computer senses the suddenly stopping car in front of you critical milliseconds before your brain can. The computer then automatically calculates the ideal braking pressure (using variables a human is not even aware of) and slows your car to a stop before hitting the car on front of you.
Here is a reality check for you: in both situations, if both cars travel 65+ mph with close distance, you're both screwed regardless of the automatic breaking. If you think some technology can defy the law of physics, show me where and I'll jump right on it. The solution? Keep safe distance and be aware of surrounding.

Now if you drive in slow city traffic, while your mind is busy with something else, it might help prevent you from rear-ending the car in front of you. Subaru eyesight and Mercedes cars are very good at this.

I wouldn't pay a premium to have those extra bells and whistles. My wife's SUV has all the safety features and I find it very annoying when I drive her SUV.

cutterinnj
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by cutterinnj » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:28 pm

I just went from a used 2007 Lexus ES to a 2014 CPO Lexus ES a few months ago.
The differences are huge; comfort, as well as safety- lane changing, parking, collision detection are great.

I think the next step is when autonomous driving will be standard; I'm guessing I'll be buying a 2022 version of this.

multiham
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by multiham » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:32 pm

I'm a fan of technology. Just test drove a Subaru Crosstrek yesterday with the Eyesight system and Rear Automatic Braking. With all the bells and whistles. I will probably spend about $4,000 more for the car than I would for a base model with some options I want. I will continue to drive with the same caution I use today, but it is nice knowing that when I'm parked and surrounded by huge SUV's, there is a system that is looking backward and slightly sideways that will help me tell when it is safe to back up. Save you from both pedestrians walking and cars going by.

I understand many peoples points here that you can't control the other driver. I agree with that, but will act upon what I can control which is having a safe car, with technology to help me out. I do agree that a good defensive driving class benefits everyone and you will use the tips you gain there more than you will use the technology in your car. I had a company car for over 15 years as I was a sales rep for a major consumer package goods company. As part of the "contract" to have a company car, we had to take online courses and quizzes every quarter and then go for behind the wheel training every 2 years. The training was taught by ex State Police officers. What was amazing to me was the amount of drivers who don't know how to use the anti-lock braking system in there cars. One drill we had to do was to rapidly accelerate from a standstill and when the instructor said stop, we had to slam on the brakes which engaged the anti-lock system and steer around cones that either went to the right or left. The instructor did not tell you which way to go until you were hard on the brakes. I would say about 50% of our drivers "failed" this test as they activated the antilock brakes, but did not hold the brake pedal down when the pedal started vibrating. Great technology only works when used correctly.

TexasPE
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by TexasPE » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:43 pm

jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:04 pm
Even if you are an aware driver you can be affected by those who are not.

For example, a driver in a car in front of you is texting and accidentally slams their brakes. Or a deer runs in front of them or a dozen other similar scenarios cause them to brake suddenly.

As an aware driver, you are following at a safe distance and slam on your brakes as soon as your brain recognizes what's happening - but you still hit rear of the car in front of you.

Now imagine that scenario with autonomous braking: the computer senses the suddenly stopping car in front of you critical milliseconds before your brain can. The computer then automatically calculates the ideal braking pressure (using variables a human is not even aware of) and slows your car to a stop before hitting the car on front of you.
+1 Anecdotal but real: had my new 2017 Subaru Forester less than a week and a driver merged onto the 4-lane freeway ,whipped into my lane, and immediately slammed on his brakes (traffic ahead was braking). The Subaru was already breaking (felt the ABS pulsing) when I got my foot on the brake pad. Saved me from rear-ending the car in front. Money well spent!

core4portfolio
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by core4portfolio » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:58 pm

TexasPE wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:43 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:04 pm
Even if you are an aware driver you can be affected by those who are not.

For example, a driver in a car in front of you is texting and accidentally slams their brakes. Or a deer runs in front of them or a dozen other similar scenarios cause them to brake suddenly.

As an aware driver, you are following at a safe distance and slam on your brakes as soon as your brain recognizes what's happening - but you still hit rear of the car in front of you.

Now imagine that scenario with autonomous braking: the computer senses the suddenly stopping car in front of you critical milliseconds before your brain can. The computer then automatically calculates the ideal braking pressure (using variables a human is not even aware of) and slows your car to a stop before hitting the car on front of you.
+1 Anecdotal but real: had my new 2017 Subaru Forester less than a week and a driver merged onto the 4-lane freeway ,whipped into my lane, and immediately slammed on his brakes (traffic ahead was braking). The Subaru was already breaking (felt the ABS pulsing) when I got my foot on the brake pad. Saved me from rear-ending the car in front. Money well spent!
+1
I have new CRV and there is a sudden stop of traffic and my brake is not stopped the car but Honda sense's brake assist / collision migitation worked well and stopped me from the rear end. But still the car behind me contains no such feature and ended in rear hit on my one month old new car :(
I would recommend the safety features for sure
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golfCaddy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by golfCaddy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:07 pm

Not all automated braking systems are created equal. Some only do well in preventing low speed collisions. Low speed collisions, obviously, would be the accidents least likely to result in serious bodily injury.

randomguy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by randomguy » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:14 pm

thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:25 pm

Here is a reality check for you: in both situations, if both cars travel 65+ mph with close distance, you're both screwed regardless of the automatic breaking. If you think some technology can defy the law of physics, show me where and I'll jump right on it. The solution? Keep safe distance and be aware of surrounding.
The questions is how much are you screwed. Would you rather have another .2s of braking and a chance to scrub off another 5-10mph from the collision? I sure would given the difference speed makes in reducing accident fatalities/risk of serious accident.

And this isn't an OR choice. You can buy AEB and keep a safe distance and awareness.

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Alexa9
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by Alexa9 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 8:15 pm

I don't think these systems are even close to being perfected. Read car forums to see all of the problems people are having with them. I am not going to be a test dummy for the manufacturers.

FraggleRock
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new strategy

Post by FraggleRock » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:40 am

Yes.
We have been: buy and hold for many years.
We will be shifting to: lease.
Technology is moving more quickly.
Our next car will be 100% electric.

inbox788
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by inbox788 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:49 am

randomguy wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:03 pm
-1. There have been several studies recently that pretty clearly show significant reduction in accident rates with the prior generation of technology (and the latest stuff is a bit better).

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/i ... -1.3449126

I would consider reducing rear end accidents by 40% to be pretty significant. The reductions due to lane change/keeping technology isn't as big but are still noticeable. I don't see the numbers in this article but adaptive headlights reduce night driving accidents by about 20%. Obviously nobody can tell you how much to value your personal safety.
I don't know whether we should be using the 250+ million cars on the road or the 17M annual cars sold, but at $500/car, we're talking about $125B to add just lane departure warning to all cars or $8.5B/year to just the new cars.
If every car had this technology, 85,000 reported crashes and 55,000 injuries could have been prevented in 2015, according to Cicchino’s research.
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... story.html

I don't know how they figure these comparisons or how accurate they are, but I think there are other more effective uses for the funds that are spent on some of these new costly safety technologies (guns vs butter). https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wo ... f19e8403cd

I'm at the stage where I think costs need to go down further and more convincing data collected, and then I'll be all for requiring them in all new cars. Looks like backup cameras are now required on all new cars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backup_camera#Mandates TPMS was also recently mandated.

I think automatic braking and adaptive headlights are ahead of lane departure systems and rear cross traffic alerts, but we don't have to spend $4000 for all 4 today with all sorts of unintended effects. The data and decisions will lead us to the ones that has the biggest bang for buck and will likely be phased in.

TravelGeek
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by TravelGeek » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:27 am

thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:57 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:40 pm
thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:35 pm
The technologies is only as good as the driver is. If you drive safely, you'll be safe. The safety features do not make a car safe if you're distracted or under influence while driving.
Actually, I think the exact opposite is true - they might very well keep a distracted or otherwise bad driver from hitting me. Bad drivers should definitely get them. Of course, I realize that everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
You missed my point. The safety technologies is only as good as the driver is. In other words, if you are a distracted or drunk driver, technologies won't help.

Also, it certainty won't help prevent a distracted or otherwise bad drive from hitting you. Are you buying them automatic driving car so that they won't hit you? If you keep your eyes on the road and pay attention of the moving traffic, there's no reason to rely on "beeping sounds alert" and "automatic breaking".
If you are a distracted driver, the automatic braking system in your vehicle may very well keep you from hitting me. Because that is what it's designed to do.

(obviously, the automatic braking system in my car won't generally keep you from hitting me....)

randomguy
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by randomguy » Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:56 am

inbox788 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:49 am

I don't know whether we should be using the 250+ million cars on the road or the 17M annual cars sold, but at $500/car, we're talking about $125B to add just lane departure warning to all cars or $8.5B/year to just the new cars.
If every car had this technology, 85,000 reported crashes and 55,000 injuries could have been prevented in 2015, according to Cicchino’s research.
125 billion and 8.5 billion are big numbers. But so is the 200 billion/year that car crashes costs. Saving 20 billion/year for 10 years would more than pay for the technology. But it is like any insurance product where most people are losers (i.e. get no benefit) while there are some big winners (i.e. the person who doesn't die makes 5 million or the person who doesn't end up with a back injury making 500k).

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lthenderson
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by lthenderson » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:04 am

Watty wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:50 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:51 am
Bottom line: I cannot go to a base or lower trim model and get the safest car anymore. In my current car search this is adding $6-8k more to every vehicle I am looking at. That's a significant number for me.
That is not true for the new cars.

Toyota added advanced safety features to all their cars for 2018 and some of them in 2017. I just bought a new 2018 Corolla because of this for a very reasonable price which was a bit over $15K, which was a little over $17K out the door with local taxes and tags.

The features vary some by model but even the Yaris has most of the safety features.

These should be available as CPO cars in a couple of years.
+1 I bought a high end 2017 toyota and my mom recently purchased the base model 2018 toyota that has every single safety feature mine has plus some.

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jazman12
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by jazman12 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:04 am

golfCaddy wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:13 pm
My view is the biggest risk on the road comes from the other drivers who may be drunk, high, falling asleep, texting, etc. Don't buy a car that's more expensive than you can afford just to get the latest tech.
+++
Act soon... time is running out

ssquared87
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by ssquared87 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:14 am

Many of these active technologies (blind spot monitoring, lane monitoring etc) are just marketing fluff to get people who are not in the know to buy a new car.

Properly designing a vehicle to withstand an impact has far greater improvements on safety than a flashing light in your mirror. Yeah, toyota includes safety "features" like active blindspot monitoring that Honda charges extra for, but Honda also uses far more advanced chassis with higher strength steel that will better protect you in a collision. Google ACE body construction for reference. Excellent xenon or adaptive headlights are also a huge improvement in night vision and should be prioritized over the electronic nannies

I think it was consumer reports who did a study and found Blind Spot monitoring and lane keep assist to be distractions rather than help. The only feature they found to be effective was the automatic braking.

Given this, my strategy is to buy a vehicle when maintenance/reliability becomes too much on my current one. I buy cars that are agile, have well designed ergonomics so I'm not distracted while driving (i.e. no touch screens, no Apple car play), high IIHS ratings, and constructed using high strength steel.

Following this approach has already saved my life once when my BMW 328 was rear ended by an 18 wheeler going 50+ mph and I was pushed into a pickup truck. Because my money went to solid engineering instead of idiotic cheap electronics like blind spot monitoring, I was able to walk out of the car to the amazement of all bystanders.

hudson
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by hudson » Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:19 am

lthenderson wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 9:04 am
+1 I bought a high end 2017 toyota and my mom recently purchased the base model 2018 toyota that has every single safety feature mine has plus some.
A Toyota salesperson told me that all of the 2018 Toyotas came with the new safety features called "Safety Sense."
She was wrong; or I heard her wrong. Many 2018 Toyotas come with the new features....but not the 2018 4Runner.

https://www.toyota.com/safety-sense/

inbox788
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by inbox788 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:48 am

randomguy wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:56 am
inbox788 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:49 am

I don't know whether we should be using the 250+ million cars on the road or the 17M annual cars sold, but at $500/car, we're talking about $125B to add just lane departure warning to all cars or $8.5B/year to just the new cars.
If every car had this technology, 85,000 reported crashes and 55,000 injuries could have been prevented in 2015, according to Cicchino’s research.
125 billion and 8.5 billion are big numbers. But so is the 200 billion/year that car crashes costs. Saving 20 billion/year for 10 years would more than pay for the technology. But it is like any insurance product where most people are losers (i.e. get no benefit) while there are some big winners (i.e. the person who doesn't die makes 5 million or the person who doesn't end up with a back injury making 500k).
Is that $200B/year for ALL car crash costs? $125B and $8.5B only involve lane departure warning, and I doubt it makes much of a dent in the total. I've read that automatic braking reduce rear end collisions by 40% but that's NOT 40% of $200B, just the fraction that are rear end accidents . And if you avoid rear-ending someone by braking faster, and the poor fellow behind you doesn't have the new technology, they may crash into you, so you've transferred the crash/liability to another entity, not totally eliminated it. This could lead to a discount for having auto braking technology and a surcharge for those cars that do not. Anyway, that may soon be a moot point. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nh ... cement-aeb

If we added the 10 best new safety technologies to all cars, the cost is probably in the TRILLIONS, and by the 10th new safety technology, the reduction on that fraction of the pie might not exceed 10%.

We must and we will continue to develop and adapt new safety technology, but many of the new offerings today are far ahead of practicality and have yet to be proven. I think motorcycle air bags began as a joke, but https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQr8YkzEEWQ , https://www.autoevolution.com/news/moto ... 44864.html and https://youtu.be/U1rz1ypxFPM?t=79 . Who knows what the next 10 new safety technologies will look like.

thangngo
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by thangngo » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:19 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 8:27 am
thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 5:57 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:40 pm
thangngo wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 4:35 pm
The technologies is only as good as the driver is. If you drive safely, you'll be safe. The safety features do not make a car safe if you're distracted or under influence while driving.
Actually, I think the exact opposite is true - they might very well keep a distracted or otherwise bad driver from hitting me. Bad drivers should definitely get them. Of course, I realize that everyone thinks they are an above average driver.
You missed my point. The safety technologies is only as good as the driver is. In other words, if you are a distracted or drunk driver, technologies won't help.

Also, it certainty won't help prevent a distracted or otherwise bad drive from hitting you. Are you buying them automatic driving car so that they won't hit you? If you keep your eyes on the road and pay attention of the moving traffic, there's no reason to rely on "beeping sounds alert" and "automatic breaking".
If you are a distracted driver, the automatic braking system in your vehicle may very well keep you from hitting me. Because that is what it's designed to do.

(obviously, the automatic braking system in my car won't generally keep you from hitting me....)
Rest assured that you don't have to worry about me hitting your car. :beer

People spend $ for a peace of mind. It sounds like you should get the latest safety feature so that you can feel safe. I just want to share my opinion and my experience with those safety features. They are annoying and definitely not worth the money.

In the future it safety features become standard and I don't have to pay premium for it.. sure, why not?

Beware that technologies are still in early stages and you are beta testers if you choose to participate in it:
http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/19/technol ... index.html
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/03/19/se ... edestrian/

And if you pay for those safety features, don't ever forget that you are responsible for everything you do when you're behind the wheel.

invst65
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by invst65 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:37 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:48 pm
invst65 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:41 pm
The new technology is amazing.
How do you KNOW that? Unless you're testing out the technology all the time (which makes you a very BAD driver), you really don't know that it's working. There is a lot of promise, but we're pretty much guinea pigs in this experiment, and we're footing the bill?!? Sure, airbags have saved countless lives, but early on, they killed smaller drivers and passengers, and now they're shrapnel roulette vs. self-disabling systems ("electrical circuit shorts in air bag control computers made by parts supplier ZF-TRW"). https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hy ... hs-n857701

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_47utWAoupo

https://wtop.com/consumer-news/2017/03/ ... e/slide/1/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ert.52420/
http://www.odyclub.com/forums/81-2018-o ... oying.html

Anyway, net-net, it's a little better in safety, but not a great value IMO. Seatbelts are a terrific value when used! (so use them!) I'm not against these new technologies, but I do find the industry using it as a profit center to be a bit distasteful.

The moral hazard is if the car brakes for me if I get too close, I will drive faster or tailgate more closely. And the thinking there's no such thing as too much safety, then bring back the 55 mph speed limits ("55 saves lives"). https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... 358366f71/ (No, this is not a serious position on unhallowed discussion, just a statement of past historic times. If/when technology allows cars to safely go 100 mph, I'm all for it. I'm just warming to the possibility that there is a better chance of this with more predictable machines in control than variable humans).
I know that the two things I said I appreciated most are working because I HAVE tested them out many times now (the rear view camera and the blind spot detection).

As for other things like crash avoidance I obviously have no intention of putting them to the test. I also don't intend to change my driving habits by relying on them.
Last edited by invst65 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

stoptothink
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by stoptothink » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:46 pm

randomguy wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:03 pm
stoptothink wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:52 pm
mega317 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:26 pm
jb3 wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:12 pm
I disagree. Active crash avoidance is significant.
I actually don't see too many statistically significant numbers in the linked studies that I clicked (which was not all of them). And very little in the way of absolute numbers. If there's around 1 death per 100 million miles, and a safety feature reduces that to 0.75, is that worth paying another few thousand dollars for? I can't answer that for you but I can for me.
+1
-1. There have been several studies recently that pretty clearly show significant reduction in accident rates with the prior generation of technology (and the latest stuff is a bit better).

http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/i ... -1.3449126

I would consider reducing rear end accidents by 40% to be pretty significant. The reductions due to lane change/keeping technology isn't as big but are still noticeable. I don't see the numbers in this article but adaptive headlights reduce night driving accidents by about 20%. Obviously nobody can tell you how much to value your personal safety.
I would absolutely love to see the actual studies, not just some random numbers from a daily news article. As an oft-published scientist myself, the article makes it sounds like the data set is hugely subjective (based upon descriptions of police reports?) and probably largely bogus...it is obviously great at convincing people that unless they buy a new car every few years, they are essentially driving a death trap though.

psteinx
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by psteinx » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:35 pm

Some back-of-the-envelope analysis...

Source: IIHS (via news article)

Via this reputable (IMO) source, universal auto-braking, at the level of a collection of vehicles from a little over 2 years ago, would have averted 700,000 crashes in 2013 (I think this is only crashes that rise to the level of police-reported, but it's slightly fuzzy from the source).

So, how much would that cost? Going by my fuzzy memory, about 17 million new light vehicles are sold per year in the US. I think we paid $900-1000 or so extra for Honda Sensing on our most recent Civic, but that included a bundle of safety features. Isolating just the auto-braking, and assuming some savings at scale, with wider implementation, I think a not unreasonable ballpark estimate is perhaps $300-500 per vehicle. Let's take a midpoint of $400.

So, total cost of 100% of new light vehicles getting this system, roughly $400 * 17 million = $6.8 billion. Of course, in the first years, not all cars (i.e. used cars) would have it, so you wouldn't get the full ~700K crash reduction in year 1, but you would presumably get that over time. So you'd (eventually) avert about 700K crashes, for about $6.8 billion, or about $9714/crash. Let's round it up to $10K.

Obviously, many rear end crashes are fender benders with no injuries and perhaps low 4 figures (perhaps less) in damages. But many are more serious as well, damaging 1-2 vehicles, and perhaps also resulting in serious injuries, or even deaths. My guess is that $10K per crash (or ~$1M per 100 crashes), to avert both the physical damage to the vehicles, and the personal injuries and occasional deaths, represents a pretty favorable cost-to-benefit ratio...

Edited - made some minor tweaks...

ORIF
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by ORIF » Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:54 pm

I rented a Tesla Model S for 3 days this past weekend. The self driving and accident avoidance technology are game changers. It truly is remarkable and all cars will benefit from having these technologies once they are perfected, hopefully sooner rather than later. On day one, I was reluctant to let go of the wheel at all. By day 3, I was annoyed when I had to touch the wheel every few minutes to keep the safety notice from alarming. I had to laugh, though nervously, as I "drove" down the highway hands free, watching all of the the other drivers, many of whom were watching the road even less than me, completely absorbed with their phones on their lap.

invst65
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Re: Bogleheads car buying strategies with new safety technologies

Post by invst65 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 5:09 pm

ORIF wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:54 pm
I rented a Tesla Model S for 3 days this past weekend. The self driving and accident avoidance technology are game changers. It truly is remarkable and all cars will benefit from having these technologies once they are perfected, hopefully sooner rather than later. On day one, I was reluctant to let go of the wheel at all. By day 3, I was annoyed when I had to touch the wheel every few minutes to keep the safety notice from alarming. I had to laugh, though nervously, as I "drove" down the highway hands free, watching all of the the other drivers, many of whom were watching the road even less than me, completely absorbed with their phones on their lap.
My CR-V doesn't actually say it will drive itself when you turn on "Adaptive Cruise Control" and then hit the "Lane Assist" button but it's pretty obvious that's the direction they are going in and there is a youtube of somebody doing it, though not recommending it.

Haven't tried it yet but as someone who has been driving over 50 years and was a software engineer for 40 years, I can't see myself ever turning complete control over to the car. Maybe someday it will drive better than I can but it's going to have to prove it first.

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