For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

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TomatoTomahto
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For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:52 am

Musk said he’d deliver in 100 days or it would be free. He delivered early (not his dual MO, but we’ll take it).

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/worl ... ttery.html
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by p0nyboy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am

Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:03 am

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
Actually, if you’re being fair, you would acknowledge that he very often delivers what he promised, although usually not at the pace he indicated. I also don’t own the stock.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TimeRunner » Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:36 am

I'm not a Tesla fanboy, but I very much want Tesla to succeed, which will push competitors and accelerate positive changes in energy generation, storage, and the environment. If that takes a bit of showmanship and bluster, so be it. I own Tesla at global market cap via VT, 0.09% of the portfolio. :)
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by clutchied » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:15 am

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
You've said this before and the characterization is incorrect. I can't think of anything he does that doesn't actually work. They are delayed sometimes and there is hype but he does in fact deliver usable products that are loved by many. Your opinion is based on something but not in fact on reality.

They land rockets on barges in the ocean after delivering payloads to space. They developed and have created an electric car revolution complete with charging infrastructure. They are developing battery and storage technology as well as solar tech to push us into the modern age and it actually all works. There is no snake oil, but there is showmanship and delays but also and most importantly they actually deliver.

a snake oil salesman is someone who knowingly sells fraudulent goods or who is a fraud, quack, or charlatan.

I also don't own their stock.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by DanMahowny » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:20 am

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
Indeed you are correct.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:45 am

Musk apparently has learned early that people are capable of doing unbelievable activities if challenged, and/or motivated.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Theseus » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:50 am

clutchied wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:15 am
p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
You've said this before and the characterization is incorrect. I can't think of anything he does that doesn't actually work. They are delayed sometimes and there is hype but he does in fact deliver usable products that are loved by many. Your opinion is based on something but not in fact on reality.

They land rockets on barges in the ocean after delivering payloads to space. They developed and have created an electric car revolution complete with charging infrastructure. They are developing battery and storage technology as well as solar tech to push us into the modern age and it actually all works. There is no snake oil, but there is showmanship and delays but also and most importantly they actually deliver.

a snake oil salesman is someone who knowingly sells fraudulent goods or who is a fraud, quack, or charlatan.

I also don't own their stock.
Disclaimer: Recent owner to Tesla X.

I agree. I don't understand why is there so much "hatred" towards Musk. He has done more and delivered a lot. He single handedly got taxpayer costs down for our space launches. He had to legally protest a single source award to legacy rocket launch company that was mostly fleecing the taxpayer. Now with SpaceX launches our costs are down.

He is the reason all manufacturers are developing and launching electric cars (I will not debate merits of electric car). To make this happen (if I remember correctly) he open sourced Tesla patents so other automobile companies can develop electric cars. He believed competition is good for Tesla and overall market.

You can certainly criticize his approach but he deserves a lot more credit than "snake oil salesman".

Like many visionaries and especially the Silicon Valley people - they have a tendency to overpromise features and timeline. But in his case he has delivered.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:54 am

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:45 am
Musk apparently has learned early that people are capable of doing unbelievable activities if challenged, and/or motivated.
I agree, and think that part of his problem in scheduling is that he thinks everyone will be as motivated and insightful as he is. I have a family member who suffers from this prediction failing, and as failings go, assuming that those around you are better than they are is not among the worse sins.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by bottlecap » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am

I'm not rooting against him, but it's very easy to see why some folks call him a snake oil salesman. If you truly can't understand where that notion comes from, then it is likely that you are quite well off and own a Tesla.

Is he? Who knows. Time will tell. If he isn't, some will still scoff. If he is, few of his fans will admit it.

JT

P.S. Other companies were producing electric cars before him.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by barnaclebob » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:29 am

Has the issue of the life of these batteries and how they will be recycled been addressed? Also I saw no real facts on the capacity of this football field sized battery bank. That's a lot of batteries to power 30k homes.

Also the general public still doesn't have an understanding of how bad battery energy density is compared to fossil fuels. Recently there have been articles about hybrid electric commercial aircraft but we are easily two or three decades from that and the planes will have very limited range even then simply because batteries are still incredibly heavy. As far as I know we aren't on the cusp of some battery revolution that will turn the tide against gas.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by alfaspider » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:34 am

bottlecap wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am
I'm not rooting against him, but it's very easy to see why some folks call him a snake oil salesman. If you truly can't understand where that notion comes from, then it is likely that you are quite well off and own a Tesla.

Is he? Who knows. Time will tell. If he isn't, some will still scoff. If he is, few of his fans will admit it.

JT

P.S. Other companies were producing electric cars before him.
Other companies were producing electric cars, but they were slow econoboxes with very limited range. He jumpstarted the electric car industry by showing that one can build an electric car that is desirable for its own sake- not just eco cred. Even almost 10-years later, Tesla is still far and away the market leader in EVs and has been a big part of forcing the major automakers to develop them. Porsche may finally start to change this with the Mission E, but it's still a ways from the dealer lots.

I think Musk has the salesman's habit of promising the moon and the stars tomorrow. This is understandably frustrating. But that doesn't take away from the fact that his companies delivered the moon next week.

I don't and wouldn't own Tesla stock (nor do I own any individual stock). It's way overvalued and overhyped. The problem is the stock price already factors in complete success, when Tesla still has a ways to go before it can justifiably be valued close to the Big 3. 2018 will be a make-or break year for them. If they can't move big volumes of Model 3s, the whole company may be in trouble. Space X actually seems to be on firmer footing.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by killjoy2012 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:40 am

bottlecap wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am
P.S. Other companies were producing electric cars before him.
Correct, starting over 100 years ago and continuing over time. Electric vehicles are nothing new.

Musk's only credit is developing the idea of producing an extremely expensive, high performance, short range vehicle and somehow marketing it in such a way that more than himself was actually interested in buying it.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by alfaspider » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:42 am

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:29 am
Has the issue of the life of these batteries and how they will be recycled been addressed? Also I saw no real facts on the capacity of this football field sized battery bank. That's a lot of batteries to power 30k homes.

Also the general public still doesn't have an understanding of how bad battery energy density is compared to fossil fuels. Recently there have been articles about hybrid electric commercial aircraft but we are easily two or three decades from that and the planes will have very limited range even then simply because batteries are still incredibly heavy. As far as I know we aren't on the cusp of some battery revolution that will turn the tide against gas.
I'm not sure energy density is a big of an issue as you are making out. Sure, pound-for-pound, a battery does not store nearly as much energy as gasoline. But a battery is not consumed as it is drained. Furthermore, electric motors are much more powerful pound-for-pound than an internal combustion engine, which makes up for a good deal of the difference. For reference, a Tesla Model S is only only about 200lbs heavier than the Audi S7, which is of similar size and performance. Recycling used batteries is simply a matter of infrastructure.

You are correct that battery density is a bigger issue in aircraft- in part because consuming fuel results in a virtuous cycle when flying- the aircraft is much lighter when it lands than when it takes off. For this reason, aviation will likely stick to Jet fuel for all but short-hop flights in the foreseable future.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by clutchied » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:46 am

bottlecap wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am
I'm not rooting against him, but it's very easy to see why some folks call him a snake oil salesman. If you truly can't understand where that notion comes from, then it is likely that you are quite well off and own a Tesla.

Is he? Who knows. Time will tell. If he isn't, some will still scoff. If he is, few of his fans will admit it.

JT

P.S. Other companies were producing electric cars before him.
I understand where it comes from but I take issue when people are presented with correct and verifiable information but fail to incorporate that into their knowledge base and adjust their opinions appropriately.

If you want to engage in bigotry for bigotry's sake or trolling for trolling's sake just put it in your signature so that people can identify you as such and weigh your opinions accordingly.

Bigotry: intolerance toward those who hold different opinions from oneself.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by killjoy2012 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:48 am

alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:34 am
Tesla is still far and away the market leader in EVs
Far and away?

Image

Or by leading, did you mean Tesla is the only one making $100-200k+ sedans, and therefore is 'leading' based on perceived cachet?
Last edited by killjoy2012 on Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

p0nyboy
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by p0nyboy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:49 am

I do call him a snake oil salesman all the time whether the term is used correct or not.

Dont get me wrong...I think tesla cars are awesome. I love the idea of having a battery in your home thats powered by shingles on your roof. I dont hate the guy...I just think he's selling the media/public a load of bs. His company hasnt been profitable yet. He somehow convinces investors to funnel tons of money to him. Dont hate the player...hate the game I suppose.

I absolutely think electric cars are the future. Self driving cars are the future....I just dont think we will be seeing a lot of cars on the road 10 years from now with T's on them. He def deserves credit for pushing every other major car manufacturer to start producing electric vehicles.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by bottlecap » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:53 am

clutchied wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:46 am
bottlecap wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am
I'm not rooting against him, but it's very easy to see why some folks call him a snake oil salesman. If you truly can't understand where that notion comes from, then it is likely that you are quite well off and own a Tesla.

Is he? Who knows. Time will tell. If he isn't, some will still scoff. If he is, few of his fans will admit it.

JT

P.S. Other companies were producing electric cars before him.
I understand where it comes from but I take issue when people are presented with correct and verifiable information but fail to incorporate that into their knowledge base and adjust their opinions appropriately.

If you want to engage in bigotry for bigotry's sake or trolling for trolling's sake just put it in your signature so that people can identify you as such and weigh your opinions accordingly.

Bigotry: intolerance toward those who hold different opinions from oneself.
???

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by WildBill » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:54 am

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
Howdy.

Snake oil salesman?

Yep. Occupational hazard when you are trying to lead aggressive change in hard things while keeping your stock price up. Thomas Edison was arguably worse, and he did OK.

Stock?

Not for me. Musk is a pioneer, and like most pioneers he will probably die with arrows in his back after great achievements. However, if you want to see an example of really crazy investors, check out the Cyrus Field and the Transatlantic Telegraph Cable financing.

Musk’s investors are highly optimistic, I think. Field’s by contrast were a bunch of crazed maniacs, who poured enormous sums down a technically near-impossible rat hole through 12 years and three failed attempts, until they finally nailed it on the fourth. And some of them got ridiculously rich.

Delivers what he promises?

Definitely. Haven’t you seen the Tesla’s driving by and the battery factory in the desert. Haven’t you seen the rockets sticking vertical landings, which NASA hasn’t yet managed despite a 60 year head start.This guy is a hero, and I wish our country had a thousand more just like him.

WB
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by btenny » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:01 pm

Is this where all the planned Model 3 batteries went? Really where did he find all the batteries so fast?

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:04 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:48 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:34 am
Tesla is still far and away the market leader in EVs
Far and away?

Image

Or by leading, did you mean Tesla is the only one making $100-200k+ sedans, and therefore is 'leading' based on perceived cachet?
I do not believe Chevy Bolt numbers at all. I have yet to see even single Bolt on the road and I have seen plenty Teslas. I bet if you dig deeper, you will find different methods of measuring how vehicles sales are computed between Bolt and Tesla.
Last edited by wrongfunds on Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by alfaspider » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:05 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:48 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:34 am
Tesla is still far and away the market leader in EVs
Far and away?

Image

Or by leading, did you mean Tesla is the only one making $100-200k+ sedans, and therefore is 'leading' based on perceived cachet?
Look at your own chart. The S and the X combined have sold ~40k electric cars this year. That's double Chevy for EV only vehicles, and still exceeds the Bolt plus Volt hybrid. You also have to take into account that Tesla has over 400k orders with deposits on the Model 3. No other automaker has anything like that- with any vehicle electric or not. Chevy has no other electric vehicle in the pipeline with any prospect of moving 100k+ units.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TimeRunner » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:07 pm

Please cite the source of the chart (URL). I'd be interested in seeing the rest of it. Thanks.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by barnaclebob » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:11 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:42 am
barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:29 am
Has the issue of the life of these batteries and how they will be recycled been addressed? Also I saw no real facts on the capacity of this football field sized battery bank. That's a lot of batteries to power 30k homes.

Also the general public still doesn't have an understanding of how bad battery energy density is compared to fossil fuels. Recently there have been articles about hybrid electric commercial aircraft but we are easily two or three decades from that and the planes will have very limited range even then simply because batteries are still incredibly heavy. As far as I know we aren't on the cusp of some battery revolution that will turn the tide against gas.
For reference, a Tesla Model S is only only about 200lbs heavier than the Audi S7, which is of similar size and performance. Recycling used batteries is simply a matter of infrastructure.
I have read (but not verified) that the Model S or another Tesla model cannot sustain that performance for very long due to heat issues, is that correct? This was just internet comments that the Model S or some other Tesla model can only make it like one lap around a track before it overheats. If so that is a huge difference in performance even though that might not be noticed by the average driver often.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Slacker » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:14 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:48 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:34 am
Tesla is still far and away the market leader in EVs
Far and away?

Image

Or by leading, did you mean Tesla is the only one making $100-200k+ sedans, and therefore is 'leading' based on perceived cachet?
Nice Chart.
It shows Tesla having sold 40,000 electric vehicles and the closest competitor is Chevy at 20,000 electric vehicles.
Does double the annual sales not mean far and away?
What about revenue? At an average price of around $90,000 compared to the Chevy Bolt's $38,000 average price Tesla is at almost 5x the electric vehicle revenue.
Does nearly 5x revenue not mean far and away?

Perhaps you mistakenly included the Hybrid (Volt) vehicle sales in with Electric vehicles when you looked at that table.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Slacker » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:16 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:52 am
Musk said he’d deliver in 100 days or it would be free. He delivered early (not his dual MO, but we’ll take it).

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/30/worl ... ttery.html
I have a sneaky suspicion (that came about when this "bet" was first announced) that the Model 3 production was delayed to hit this target -> shift all battery production to this project to drum up other business at the cost of the Model 3 waitlist customers.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:19 pm

I have read (but not verified) that the Model S or another Tesla model cannot sustain that performance for very long due to heat issues, is that correct?
Are you referring to a lap around Nurburgring? If that’s your use case, Tesla is not the vehicle for you.
In real life, it has no such problems.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:23 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:18 am
I'm not rooting against him, but it's very easy to see why some folks call him a snake oil salesman. If you truly can't understand where that notion comes from, then it is likely that you are quite well off and own a Tesla.
I’m quite well off and own a Tesla. Can I still object to the characterization of Musk, or am I somehow disqualified?

I agree with WildBill: I wish we had a thousand more like him!
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by alfaspider » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:32 pm

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:11 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:42 am
barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:29 am
Has the issue of the life of these batteries and how they will be recycled been addressed? Also I saw no real facts on the capacity of this football field sized battery bank. That's a lot of batteries to power 30k homes.

Also the general public still doesn't have an understanding of how bad battery energy density is compared to fossil fuels. Recently there have been articles about hybrid electric commercial aircraft but we are easily two or three decades from that and the planes will have very limited range even then simply because batteries are still incredibly heavy. As far as I know we aren't on the cusp of some battery revolution that will turn the tide against gas.
For reference, a Tesla Model S is only only about 200lbs heavier than the Audi S7, which is of similar size and performance. Recycling used batteries is simply a matter of infrastructure.
I have read (but not verified) that the Model S or another Tesla model cannot sustain that performance for very long due to heat issues, is that correct? This was just internet comments that the Model S or some other Tesla model can only make it like one lap around a track before it overheats. If so that is a huge difference in performance even though that might not be noticed by the average driver often.
You are correct that the Telsa will reduce power if pushed on the track for too long. The Tesla is not a track car (nor is the S7 for that matter). It's not an issue in any reasonable street driving scenario. I'd also point out that many (if not most) street vehicles will experience issues if pushed on the track.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by chuppi » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:35 pm

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
He made electric cars cool again. I don't own any tesla products or stocks. As far as I am concerned he is a genius and he deserves a lot of respect for what he does. I want him to succeed.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by chuppi » Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:38 pm

WildBill wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:54 am
p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
Howdy.

Snake oil salesman?

Yep. Occupational hazard when you are trying to lead aggressive change in hard things while keeping your stock price up. Thomas Edison was arguably worse, and he did OK.

Stock?

Not for me. Musk is a pioneer, and like most pioneers he will probably die with arrows in his back after great achievements. However, if you want to see an example of really crazy investors, check out the Cyrus Field and the Transatlantic Telegraph Cable financing.

Musk’s investors are highly optimistic, I think. Field’s by contrast were a bunch of crazed maniacs, who poured enormous sums down a technically near-impossible rat hole through 12 years and three failed attempts, until they finally nailed it on the fourth. And some of them got ridiculously rich.

Delivers what he promises?

Definitely. Haven’t you seen the Tesla’s driving by and the battery factory in the desert. Haven’t you seen the rockets sticking vertical landings, which NASA hasn’t yet managed despite a 60 year head start.This guy is a hero, and I wish our country had a thousand more just like him.

WB
+1

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Nate79 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:00 pm

For those doubting the Chevy bolt sales numbers if you could be troubled to do 3 seconds of research you can find the numbers. Chevy Bolt sales are hot right now.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by lightheir » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:10 pm

I can't see how anyone can call Musk a snake oil salesman.

He's delivered the goods on not one, but MULTIPLE pioneering fronts, all with industry-changing standards.

If any CEO/tech leader was able to deliver ONE of his technologies in the way Musk has, that leader would be hailed fairly as a world-beating game-changer. Musk hasn't just done it once - he's done it multiple times.

I too thought his electric car would be a joke, after every big auto manufacturer said it made no sense and they had zero plans on electrifying their profit-machine combustion cars. Now everyone's electrifying their entire future fleet, and it's incorrect to say they would have done so without the Tesla pushing them to do so.

I thought his rockets were a bunch of fantasyland based on his Mars travel dream. Then I read about how costly and inefficient NASA was with rockets, and how we were ceding almost ALL of our rocket payloads to China and Russia prior to Musk - with obvious future consequences. Now thanks to his WORKING rockets, that situation is reversed, and the US is back in charge of space payload delivery, which may be critical to future development.

I haven't seen enough of his powerwalls to make final judgment, but the fact that his billion-dollar manufacturer plants are already up and running is legit.

Sure, there have been some busts in there, but overall, his track record is soooooo good for game-changing technology. To the point I think it's utterly ludicrous to label him snake-oil. If anything, he's the ONE businessperson who actually promises THEN DELIVERS game-changing technology.

Seriously, what other CEO has delivere game-changing industrial technology recently other than Steve Jobs with Mac and iphone? And don't point to the internet billionaires - I acknowledge that those CEOs have found money-machine internet businesses, but you're never going to convince me that Facebook's social media is a greater, more innovative accomplishment than what Musk's technology has already done.

I WISH I had bought Tesla stock. But that's the sign of a game-changer - he does what everyone thinks is impossible, then delivers. Just because he's having a bit of a rough patch pumping out 100,000 Model 3s doesn't in any way invalidate his accomplishments and contributions to the industries he is in.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:12 pm

Nate79 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:00 pm
For those doubting the Chevy bolt sales numbers if you could be troubled to do 3 seconds of research you can find the numbers. Chevy Bolt sales are hot right now.
I don't doubt that they're hot, and I am pleased to see EV acceptance. I'm asking because I don't know, not to be snarky: when sales figures are provided by GM, are those sales to dealers or dealers to consumers?
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:14 pm

lightheir, I wish we would revisit the decision not to have a "like" button.
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Katietsu
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Katietsu » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:22 pm

I am not knowledgeable enough to have an opinion on Musk’s performance overall. I can say that an acquaintance who is a physician at San Juan’s Children’s Hospital has told me that the Tesla solar panels vastly improved life at the hospital post Hurricane. Certainly Tesla deserves a shout out for keeping this promise.

Broken Man 1999
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:31 pm

IMHO a CEO who consistently hits targets and schedules is actually a CEO who has set the bar too low.

The business environment is too filled with uncertainties; and economics, political/regulatory issues, fickle consumer tastes, business cycles all conspire to wreck projections made by CEOs.

I don't think Musk has set the bar too low, ever. If he is guilty of anything, it is sometimes setting the bar too high. But at least he has the guts to put an aggressive goal out to the market, and work hard to get as close as he can to meet it.

So far as Tesla losing money, has everyone forgotten the constant drumbeat against Amazon concerning the company's devouring billions of dollars for many years? How does Amazon look now?

Unless Tesla makes a van, I'll probably never purchase a Tesla product. But I have a lot of admiration for Musk. We need more like him in the US.

Broken Man 1999
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wrongfunds
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:31 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:12 pm
Nate79 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:00 pm
For those doubting the Chevy bolt sales numbers if you could be troubled to do 3 seconds of research you can find the numbers. Chevy Bolt sales are hot right now.
I don't doubt that they're hot, and I am pleased to see EV acceptance. I'm asking because I don't know, not to be snarky: when sales figures are provided by GM, are those sales to dealers or dealers to consumers?
Exactly. Finding Chevy Bolt is as rare as finding Tesla M3 in my neck of the woods aka Boston Metro West. The MegaCorp has every type of vehicle on the parking lot except Bolt and M3.

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eye.surgeon
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by eye.surgeon » Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:51 pm

p0nyboy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:01 am
Musk is a modern day snake oil salesman. I wouldnt touch that stock with a 10 foot pole. This may be the first time ever that he actually delivered what he promised.
If you own index funds you are touching Tesla stock quite passionately.

And I'm driving something that he promised.
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snowox
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by snowox » Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:12 pm

Which Snake oil salesman? The original ones that the term came from did deliver and actually had snake oil in it. The ones that made the fake stuff got the name rolling. Having said that, Tesla is what we need more of. He has great idea's and a dreamer. Visionary. But outside of my index stocks which most of us own the stock NO I would not be a buyer because I think the wealth of Tesla will come from those that steal, copy or better perfect his ideas. Either way I appreciate the man!

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:40 pm

alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:42 am
Recycling used batteries is simply a matter of infrastructure.
According to Waste Management, it's a cost issue. Raw materials are cheaper than recycling old batteries so they're simply scrapped. If someone were paying to recycle them, sure, it can be done.

https://waste-management-world.com/a/1- ... -challenge
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ThatGuy
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by ThatGuy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:10 pm

chuppi wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:35 pm
He made electric cars cool again. I don't own any tesla products or stocks. As far as I am concerned he is a genius and he deserves a lot of respect for what he does. I want him to succeed.
Musk is obviously highly intelligent, driven, and has done quite a bit to move the industries he is interested in forward.

He's also not doing much new, he's modifying existing technologies; which is not a bad thing. Electric cars have been around since 1832. Grid fins, those control devices they're so proud of on their rockets were invented in the 1950's and have been used on many Soviet rockets/missiles since the 70's. Yuri Gagarin also wrote his thesis on these.

Musk is also a grade A jerk.

I took an interview at SpaceX, and one of the things the Recruiter told me on the factory tour was to look at the cranes used for lifting rockets. They were all painted SpaceX blue. Apparently Cal OSHA requires cranes to be painted yellow, but Musk doesn't think that fits SpaceX's aesthetic so they just pay the fine every year to keep them painted blue.

That reminds me of Steve's Folly:
Issacson wrote:When Jobs took a tour, he ordered that the machines be repainted in the bright colors he wanted. Carter objected; this was precision equipment, and repainting the machines could cause problems. He turned out to be right. One of the most expensive machines, which got painted bright blue, ended up not working properly and was dubbed “Steve’s Folly.” Finally Carter quit. “It took so much energy to fight him, and it was usually over something so pointless that finally I had enough,” he recalled.
During a launch they encourage everyone to gather and watch the event, and cheer when it goes off. It felt very much like a cult.

Additionally, lest you think Musk will listen to the opinions of others, take note of his recent twitter outburst over Zuckerberg "not understanding" AI.
Elon Musk wrote:I've talked to Mark about this. His understanding of the subject is limited.
Just not someone I would want to deal with, or can even respect despite his driving others to technological achievements.
Work is the curse of the drinking class - Oscar Wilde

James2
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by James2 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:18 pm

I’ve seen a Bolt or two around the city, I’ve even seen some Teslas :D more than one or two...

One thing I did read, not sure how accurate it is; was that the model 3 did have some production issues when first released. I would assume they should have gotten them resolved by now.

http://fortune.com/2017/10/07/tesla-mod ... t-by-hand/

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:21 pm

ThatGuy, I’m curious how the interview went. On a scale of 1-10, how tough would you say it is?

Fwiw, I don’t disagree about Steve Jobs; I despised him. Elon Musk I love. Different strikes.
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Theseus
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Theseus » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:26 pm

barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:11 pm
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:42 am
barnaclebob wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:29 am
Has the issue of the life of these batteries and how they will be recycled been addressed? Also I saw no real facts on the capacity of this football field sized battery bank. That's a lot of batteries to power 30k homes.

Also the general public still doesn't have an understanding of how bad battery energy density is compared to fossil fuels. Recently there have been articles about hybrid electric commercial aircraft but we are easily two or three decades from that and the planes will have very limited range even then simply because batteries are still incredibly heavy. As far as I know we aren't on the cusp of some battery revolution that will turn the tide against gas.
For reference, a Tesla Model S is only only about 200lbs heavier than the Audi S7, which is of similar size and performance. Recycling used batteries is simply a matter of infrastructure.
I have read (but not verified) that the Model S or another Tesla model cannot sustain that performance for very long due to heat issues, is that correct? This was just internet comments that the Model S or some other Tesla model can only make it like one lap around a track before it overheats. If so that is a huge difference in performance even though that might not be noticed by the average driver often.
I don't know about heating issue around a track. But I have driven my model X 200+ miles straight at around 80 mph with no issues.

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by ThatGuy » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:31 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:21 pm
ThatGuy, I’m curious how the interview went. On a scale of 1-10, how tough would you say it is?
I'd say a 7-8. It was not particularly technically challenging, they asked undergrad questions, but they were very exacting in wanting you to get 100% of their answers. I noticed walking around, and meeting the team, that it seemed to consist of 80% under 30 people who had never worked anywhere else. One interviewer in particular asked very open ended questions but was looking for specific answers. I don't know their background but I got the impression that this was the only thing they had ever done and so they thought these were obvious answers; I needed a hint for what direction they wanted me to go in.

I was turned off by the request for GPA, SAT/ACT, and GMAT/GRE scores, as well as the written homework assignment prior to talking to the team. That, combined with the presentation they require interviewees to give led to an excessive time suck for both parties. I could see one or the other, but this just felt like a slog.
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by brad.clarkston » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:32 pm

ThatGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:10 pm


Musk is obviously highly intelligent, driven, and has done quite a bit to move the industries he is interested in forward.
Musk is also a grade A jerk.

Yea that's all pretty much true :)


During a launch they encourage everyone to gather and watch the event, and cheer when it goes off. It felt very much like a cult.

You mean just like all of the NASA launches? Been to a few of them, SpaceX is just doing what NASA has always done.

Additionally, lest you think Musk will listen to the opinions of others, take note of his recent twitter outburst over Zuckerberg "not understanding" AI.
Elon Musk wrote:I've talked to Mark about this. His understanding of the subject is limited.
Well in Musk's defense, he's right Zuckerberg is not the sharpest knife in the Valley.

killjoy2012
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by killjoy2012 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:03 pm

TimeRunner wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:07 pm
Please cite the source of the chart (URL). I'd be interested in seeing the rest of it. Thanks.
Here you go: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

wrongfunds wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:04 pm
I do not believe Chevy Bolt numbers at all. I have yet to see even single Bolt on the road and I have seen plenty Teslas. I bet if you dig deeper, you will find different methods of measuring how vehicles sales are computed between Bolt and Tesla.
The chart isn't mine, I have no clue how accurate it is, and I provided the source above if you'd like to challenge its author. I just provided the snippet of the top few; the entire (lengthy) chart is available at the link I provided above. I think people's perception may be dependent/skewed based on your geographic location. Where I live, I might see 1 Tesla every month on the road. Whereas I see 2 Bolts parked in the front row at work daily.

Slacker wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Nice Chart.
It shows Tesla having sold 40,000 electric vehicles and the closest competitor is Chevy at 20,000 electric vehicles.
Does double the annual sales not mean far and away?
What about revenue? At an average price of around $90,000 compared to the Chevy Bolt's $38,000 average price Tesla is at almost 5x the electric vehicle revenue.
Does nearly 5x revenue not mean far and away?

Perhaps you mistakenly included the Hybrid (Volt) vehicle sales in with Electric vehicles when you looked at that table.
I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just trying to add some facts to a discussion thread that is mostly that of opinions. No, that chart doesn't read as "far & away" to me. I see Bolt + Volt sales #s being about equal to S/X #s. I see a lot of inconsistency in the Model S/X sales when looking month to month, vs. a clear increasing trend on the Bolt. Call the Volt a PHEV and not qualify - OK. 1) It's not my chart. 2) The Volt & Bolt are the same size car whereas the S/X are clearly pulling from 2 distinct customer shopping markets.


Revenue / Cost? In the ICE world, a Ferrari 488 is 10x the Honda Civic. What relevance does that have? Clearly, the S and Bolt are in 2 completely different cost/luxury categories. If the model 3 ever makes it here, maybe we can get a better apples-to-apples comparison.

Should we compare profit margins? Oh, wait...

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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by Slacker » Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:47 pm

killjoy2012 wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 5:03 pm
Slacker wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:14 pm
Nice Chart.
It shows Tesla having sold 40,000 electric vehicles and the closest competitor is Chevy at 20,000 electric vehicles.
Does double the annual sales not mean far and away?
What about revenue? At an average price of around $90,000 compared to the Chevy Bolt's $38,000 average price Tesla is at almost 5x the electric vehicle revenue.
Does nearly 5x revenue not mean far and away?

Perhaps you mistakenly included the Hybrid (Volt) vehicle sales in with Electric vehicles when you looked at that table.
I don't have a horse in this race. I'm just trying to add some facts to a discussion thread that is mostly that of opinions. No, that chart doesn't read as "far & away" to me. I see Bolt + Volt sales #s being about equal to S/X #s. I see a lot of inconsistency in the Model S/X sales when looking month to month, vs. a clear increasing trend on the Bolt. Call the Volt a PHEV and not qualify - OK. 1) It's not my chart. 2) The Volt & Bolt are the same size car whereas the S/X are clearly pulling from 2 distinct customer shopping markets.


Revenue / Cost? In the ICE world, a Ferrari 488 is 10x the Honda Civic. What relevance does that have? Clearly, the S and Bolt are in 2 completely different cost/luxury categories. If the model 3 ever makes it here, maybe we can get a better apples-to-apples comparison.

Should we compare profit margins? Oh, wait...
Yes a better comparison is due, because you clearly point out a huge limitation of such a comparison:
luxury car numbers vs compact non-luxury car numbers.

As a side note: Even with a Ferrari 488 being 10x the cost of a Honda Civic, about 300x as many civics are sold every year giving civics the advantage with revenue AND sales numbers.

wrongfunds
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Re: For Musk, an Energy Feat the Size of a Football Field

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Dec 01, 2017 7:30 pm

Faerrai sold 8000 total vehicles in 2016. Honda sold 4.7 million vehicles in 2016. All numbers are worldwide numbers.

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